Smoking, all-cause, and cause-specific mortality in individuals with diabetes in Mexico: an analysis of the Mexico city prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence from low- and middle-income countries regarding the effect of smoking in people with diabetes is lacking. Here, we report the association of smoking with mortality in a large cohort of Mexican adults with diabetes. METHODS: Participants with diabetes mellitus (self-reported diagnosis, use of antidiabetic medications or HbA1c ≥ 6.5%) aged 35-74 years when recruited into the Mexico City Prospective Study were included. Cox regression confounder-adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) associated with baseline smoking status were estimated. RESULTS: Among 15,975 women and 8225 men aged 35-74 years with diabetes but no other comorbidities at recruitment, 2498 (16%) women and 2875 (35%) men reported former smoking and 2753 (17%) women, and 3796 (46%) men reported current smoking. During a median of 17 years of follow-up there were 5087 deaths at ages 35-74 years. Compared with never smoking, all-cause mortality RR was 1.08 (95%CI 1.01-1.17) for former smoking, 1.11 (95%CI 1.03-1.20) for current smoking, 1.09 (95%CI 0.99-1.20) for non-daily smoking, 1.06 (95%CI 0.96-1.16) for smoking < 10 cigarettes/day (median during follow-up 4 cigarettes/day), and 1.28 (95% CI 1.14-1.43) for smoking ≥ 10 cigarettes/day (median during follow-up 15 cigarettes/day). Mortality risk among daily smokers was greatest for COPD, lung cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and acute diabetic complications. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of Mexican adults with diabetes, low-intensity daily smoking was associated with increased mortality, despite observing smoking patterns which are different from other populations, and over 5% of total deaths were associated with smoking.

Multinational evaluation of anthropometric age (AnthropoAge) as a measure of biological age in the USA, England, Mexico, Costa Rica, and China: a population-based longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: To validate AnthropoAge, a new metric of biological age (BA), for prediction of all-cause mortality and age-related outcomes and characterize population-specific aging patterns using multinational longitudinal cohorts. METHODS: We analyzed harmonized multinational data from the Gateway to Global Aging, including studies from the US, England, Mexico, Costa Rica, and China. We used body mass index and waist-to-height ratio to estimate AnthropoAge and AnthropoAgeAccel in participants aged 50-90 years old as proxies of BA and age acceleration, respectively. We compared the predictive capacity for all-cause mortality of AnthropoAge and chronological age (CA) using Cox models, described aging trends in all countries and explored the utility of longitudinal assessments of AnthropoAgeAccel to predict new-onset functional decline and age-related diseases using generalized estimating equations (GEE). FINDINGS: Using data from 55,628 participants, we found AnthropoAge (c-statistic 0.772) outperformed CA (0.76) for prediction of mortality independently of comorbidities, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and lifestyle; this result was replicated in most countries individually except for Mexico. Individuals with accelerated aging had a ~39% higher risk of death, and AnthropoAge also identified trends of faster biological aging per year. In longitudinal analyses, higher AnthropoAgeAccel values were independently predictive of self-reported health deterioration and new-onset deficits in basic/instrumental activities of daily living (ADL/IADL), diabetes, hypertension, cancer, chronic lung disease, myocardial infarction, and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: AnthropoAge is a robust and reproducible BA metric associated with age-related outcomes. Its implementation could facilitate modeling trends of biological aging acceleration in different populations, although recalibration may enhance its utility in underrepresented populations such as individuals from Latin America.

Prediabetes as a risk factor for all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a prospective analysis of 115,919 adults without diabetes in Mexico City.

BACKGROUND: Prediabetes has been associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. However, no large-scale studies have been conducted in Mexico or Latin America examining these associations. METHODS: We analyzed data from 115,919 adults without diabetes (diagnosed or undiagnosed) aged 35-84 years who participated in the Mexico City Prospective Study between 1998 and 2004. Participants were followed until January 1st, 2021 for cause-specific mortality. We defined prediabetes according to the American Diabetes Association (ADA, HbA1c 5.7% to 6.4%) and the International Expert Committee (IEC, HbA1c 6.0-6.4%) definitions. Cox regression adjusted for confounders was used to estimate all-cause and cause-specific mortality rate ratios (RR) at ages 35-74 years associated with prediabetes. FINDINGS: During 2,085,392 person-years of follow-up (median in survivors 19 years), there were 6,810 deaths at ages 35-74, including 1,742 from cardiovascular disease, 892 from renal disease and 108 from acute diabetic crises. Of 110,405 participants aged 35-74 years at recruitment, 28,852 (26%) had ADA-defined prediabetes and 7,203 (7%) had IEC-defined prediabetes. Compared with those without prediabetes, individuals with prediabetes had higher risk of all-cause mortality at ages 35-74 years (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.19 for ADA-defined prediabetes and RR 1.28, 1.18-1.39 for IEC-defined prediabetes), as well as increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (RR 1.22 [1.10-1.35] and 1.42 [1.22-1.65], respectively), renal mortality (RR 1.35 [1.08-1.68] and 1.69 [1.24-2.31], respectively), and death from an acute diabetic crisis (RR 2.63 [1.76-3.94] and 3.43 [2.09-5.62], respectively). RRs were larger at younger than at older ages, and similar for men compared to women. The absolute excess risk associated with ADA and IEC-defined prediabetes at ages 35-74 accounted for6% and 3% of cardiovascular deaths respectively, 10% and 5% of renal deaths respectively, and 31% and 14% of acute diabetic deaths respectively. INTERPRETATION: Prediabetes is a significant risk factor for all-cause, cardiovascular, renal, and acute diabetic deaths in Mexican adults. Identification and timely management of individuals with prediabetes for targeted risk reduction could contribute to reducing premature mortality from cardiometabolic causes in this population. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, the Mexican Health Ministry, the National Council of Science and Technology for Mexico, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council. Instituto Nacional de Geriatría (Mexico City).

Unequal Impact of Structural Health Determinants and Comorbidity on COVID-19 Severity and Lethality in Older Mexican Adults: Considerations Beyond Chronological Aging.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact on older adults. Mexico's population is younger, yet COVID-19's impact on older adults is comparable to countries with older population structures. Here, we aim to identify health and structural determinants that increase susceptibility to COVID-19 in older Mexican adults beyond chronological aging. METHODS: We analyzed confirmed COVID-19 cases in older adults using data from the General Directorate of Epidemiology of Mexican Ministry of Health. We modeled risk factors for increased COVID-19 severity and mortality, using mixed models to incorporate multilevel data concerning healthcare access and marginalization. We also evaluated structural factors and comorbidity profiles compared to chronological age for COVID-19 mortality risk prediction. RESULTS: We analyzed 20 804 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in adults aged 60 and older. Male sex, smoking, diabetes, and obesity were associated with pneumonia, hospitalization, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission in older adults, CKD and COPD were associated with hospitalization. High social lag indexes and access to private care were predictors of COVID-19 severity and mortality. Age was not a predictor of COVID-19 severity in individuals without comorbidities and combination of structural factors and comorbidities were better predictors of COVID-19 lethality and severity compared to chronological age alone. COVID-19 baseline lethality hazards were heterogeneously distributed across Mexican municipalities, particularly when comparing urban and rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Structural factors and comorbidity explain excess risk for COVID-19 severity and mortality over chronological age in older Mexican adults. Clinical decision-making related to COVID-19 should focus away from chronological aging onto more a comprehensive geriatric care approach.