Changes in hospital mortality in patients with cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic (ISARIC-CCP-UK): a prospective, multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cancer are at greater risk of dying from COVID-19 than many other patient groups. However, how this risk evolved during the pandemic remains unclear. We aimed to determine, on the basis of the UK national pandemic protocol, how factors influencing hospital mortality from COVID-19 could differentially affect patients undergoing cancer treatment. We also examined changes in hospital mortality and escalation of care in patients on cancer treatment during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients aged older than 19 years and admitted to 306 health-care facilities in the UK with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, who were enrolled in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol (CCP) across the UK from April 23, 2020, to Feb 28, 2022; this analysis included all patients in the complete dataset when the study closed. The primary outcome was 30-day in-hospital mortality, comparing patients on cancer treatment and those without cancer. The study was approved by the South Central-Oxford C Research Ethics Committee in England (Ref: 13/SC/0149) and the Scotland A Research Ethics Committee (Ref 20/SS/0028), and is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN66726260). FINDINGS: 177 871 eligible adult patients either with no history of cancer (n=171 303) or on cancer treatment (n=6568) were enrolled; 93 205 (52·4%) were male, 84 418 (47·5%) were female, and in 248 (13·9%) sex or gender details were not specified or data were missing. Patients were followed up for a median of 13 (IQR 6-21) days. Of the 6568 patients receiving cancer treatment, 2080 (31·7%) died at 30 days, compared with 30 901 (18·0%) of 171 303 patients without cancer. Patients aged younger than 50 years on cancer treatment had the highest age-adjusted relative risk (hazard ratio [HR] 5·2 [95% CI 4·0-6·6], p<0·0001; vs 50-69 years 2·4 [2·2-2·6], p<0·0001; 70-79 years 1·8 [1·6-2·0], p<0·0001; and >80 years 1·5 [1·3-1·6], p<0·0001) but a lower absolute risk (51 [6·7%] of 763 patients <50 years died compared with 459 [30·2%] of 1522 patients aged >80 years). In-hospital mortality decreased for all patients during the pandemic but was higher for patients on cancer treatment than for those without cancer throughout the study period. INTERPRETATION: People with cancer have a higher risk of mortality from COVID-19 than those without cancer. Patients younger than 50 years with cancer treatment have the highest relative risk of death. Continued action is needed to mitigate the poor outcomes in patients with cancer, such as through optimising vaccination, long-acting passive immunisation, and early access to therapeutics. These findings underscore the importance of the ISARIC-WHO pandemic preparedness initiative. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and the Medical Research Council.

The PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium: Ten years' experience of association studies to understand the genetic architecture of pancreatic cancer.

Pancreatic cancer has an incidence that almost matches its mortality. Only a small number of risk factors and 33 susceptibility loci have been identified. so Moreover, the relative rarity of pancreatic cancer poses significant hurdles for research aimed at increasing our knowledge of the genetic mechanisms contributing to the disease. Additionally, the inability to adequately power research questions prevents small monocentric studies from being successful. Several consortia have been established to pursue a better understanding of the genetic architecture of pancreatic cancers. The Pancreatic disease research (PANDoRA) consortium is the largest in Europe. PANDoRA is spread across 12 European countries, Brazil and Japan, bringing together 29 basic and clinical research groups. In the last ten years, PANDoRA has contributed to the discovery of 25 susceptibility loci, a feat that will be instrumental in stratifying the population by risk and optimizing preventive strategies.

Genomic profiling of idiopathic peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma reveals new targets and mutational pathways.

Peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) is chemorefractory and limited genomic analyses have been undertaken in Western idiopathic disease. We undertook comprehensive genomic analyses of a U.K. idiopathic pCCA cohort to characterize its mutational profile and identify new targets. Whole exome and targeted DNA sequencing was performed on forty-two resected pCCA tumors and normal bile ducts, with Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) using one-tailed testing to generate false discovery rates (FDR). 60% of patients harbored one cancer-associated mutation, with two mutations in 20%. High frequency somatic mutations in genes not typically associated with cholangiocarcinoma included mTOR, ABL1 and NOTCH1. We identified non-synonymous mutation (p.Glu38del) in MAP3K9 in ten tumors, associated with increased peri-vascular invasion (Fisher's exact, p < 0.018). Mutation-enriched pathways were primarily immunological, including innate Dectin-2 (FDR 0.001) and adaptive T-cell receptor pathways including PD-1 (FDR 0.007), CD4 phosphorylation (FDR 0.009) and ZAP70 translocation (FDR 0.009), with overlapping HLA genes. We observed cancer-associated mutations in over half of our patients. Many of these mutations are not typically associated with cholangiocarcinoma yet may increase eligibility for contemporary targeted trials. We also identified a targetable MAP3K9 mutation, in addition to oncogenic and immunological pathways hitherto not described in any cholangiocarcinoma subtype.

The Potent G-Quadruplex-Binding Compound QN-302 Downregulates S100P Gene Expression in Cells and in an In Vivo Model of Pancreatic Cancer.

The naphthalene diimide compound QN-302, designed to bind to G-quadruplex DNA sequences within the promoter regions of cancer-related genes, has high anti-proliferative activity in pancreatic cancer cell lines and anti-tumor activity in several experimental models for the disease. We show here that QN-302 also causes downregulation of the expression of the S100P gene and the S100P protein in cells and in vivo. This protein is well established as being involved in key proliferation and motility pathways in several human cancers and has been identified as a potential biomarker in pancreatic cancer. The S100P gene contains 60 putative quadruplex-forming sequences, one of which is in the promoter region, 48 nucleotides upstream from the transcription start site. We report biophysical and molecular modeling studies showing that this sequence forms a highly stable G-quadruplex in vitro, which is further stabilized by QN-302. We also report transcriptome analyses showing that S100P expression is highly upregulated in tissues from human pancreatic cancer tumors, compared to normal pancreas material. The extent of upregulation is dependent on the degree of differentiation of tumor cells, with the most poorly differentiated, from more advanced disease, having the highest level of S100P expression. The experimental drug QN-302 is currently in pre-IND development (as of Q1 2023), and its ability to downregulate S100P protein expression supports a role for this protein as a marker of therapeutic response in pancreatic cancer. These results are also consistent with the hypothesis that the S100P promoter G-quadruplex is a potential therapeutic target in pancreatic cancer at the transcriptional level for QN-302.

Mutant K-Ras in Pancreatic Cancer: An Insight on the Role of Wild-Type N-Ras and K-Ras-Dependent Cell Cycle Regulation.

The development of K-Ras independence may explain the failure of targeted therapy for pancreatic cancer (PC). In this paper, active N as well as K-Ras was shown in all human cell lines tested. In a cell line dependent on mutant K-Ras, it was shown that depleting K-Ras reduced total Ras activity, while cell lines described as independent had no significant decline in total Ras activity. The knockdown of N-Ras showed it had an important role in controlling the relative level of oxidative metabolism, but only K-Ras depletion caused a decrease in G2 cyclins. Proteasome inhibition reversed this, and other targets of APC/c were also decreased by K-Ras depletion. K-Ras depletion did not cause an increase in ubiquitinated G2 cyclins but instead caused exit from the G2 phase to slow relative to completion of the S-phase, suggesting that the mutant K-Ras may inhibit APC/c prior to anaphase and stabilise G2 cyclins independently of this. We propose that, during tumorigenesis, cancer cells expressing wild-type N-Ras protein are selected because the protein protects cancer cells from the deleterious effects of the cell cycle-independent induction of cyclins by mutant K-Ras. Mutation independence results when N-Ras activity becomes adequate to drive cell division, even in cells where K-Ras is inhibited.

Genetic and non-genetic risk factors for early-onset pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Early-onset pancreatic cancer (EOPC) represents 5-10% of all pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) cases, and the etiology of this form is poorly understood. It is not clear if established PDAC risk factors have the same relevance for younger patients. This study aims to identify genetic and non-genetic risk factors specific to EOPC. METHODS: A genome-wide association study was performed, analysing 912 EOPC cases and 10 222 controls, divided into discovery and replication phases. Furthermore, the associations between a polygenic risk score (PRS), smoking, alcohol consumption, type 2 diabetes and PDAC risk were also assessed. RESULTS: Six novel SNPs were associated with EOPC risk in the discovery phase, but not in the replication phase. The PRS, smoking, and diabetes affected EOPC risk. The OR comparing current smokers to never-smokers was 2.92 (95% CI 1.69-5.04, P = 1.44 × 10-4). For diabetes, the corresponding OR was 14.95 (95% CI 3.41-65.50, P = 3.58 × 10-4). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, we did not identify novel genetic variants associated specifically with EOPC, and we found that established PDAC risk variants do not have a strong age-dependent effect. Furthermore, we add to the evidence pointing to the role of smoking and diabetes in EOPC.

Serum biomarker-based early detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas with ensemble learning.

BACKGROUND: Earlier detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is key to improving patient outcomes, as it is mostly detected at advanced stages which are associated with poor survival. Developing non-invasive blood tests for early detection would be an important breakthrough. METHODS: The primary objective of the work presented here is to use a dataset that is prospectively collected, to quantify a set of cancer-associated proteins and construct multi-marker models with the capacity to predict PDAC years before diagnosis. The data used is part of a nested case-control study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening and is comprised of 218 samples, collected from a total of 143 post-menopausal women who were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 70 months after sample collection, and 249 matched non-cancer controls. We develop a stacked ensemble modelling technique to achieve robustness in predictions and, therefore, improve performance in newly collected datasets. RESULTS: Here we show that with ensemble learning we can predict PDAC status with an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI 0.75-1.0), sensitivity of 92% (95% CI 0.54-1.0) at 90% specificity, up to 1 year prior to diagnosis, and at an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.74-0.93) up to 2 years prior to diagnosis (sensitivity of 61%, 95% CI 0.17-0.83, at 90% specificity). CONCLUSIONS: The ensemble modelling strategy explored here outperforms considerably biomarker combinations cited in the literature. Further developments in the selection of classifiers balancing performance and heterogeneity should further enhance the predictive capacity of the method.

Pancreatic cancers are most frequently detected at an advanced stage. This limits treatment options and contributes to the dismal survival rates currently recorded. The development of new tests that could improve detection of early-stage disease is fundamental to improve outcomes. Here, we use advanced data analysis techniques to devise an early detection test for pancreatic cancer. We use data on markers in the blood from people enrolled on a screening trial. Our test correctly identifies as positive for pancreatic cancer 91% of the time up to 1 year prior to diagnosis, and 78% of the time up to 2 years prior to diagnosis. These results surpass previously reported tests and should encourage further evaluation of the test in different populations, to see whether it should be adopted in the clinic.

GATA4 and GATA6 loss-of-expression is associated with extinction of the classical programme and poor outcome in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: GATA6 is a key regulator of the classical phenotype in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Low GATA6 expression associates with poor patient outcome. GATA4 is the second most expressed GATA factor in the pancreas. We assessed whether, and how, GATA4 contributes to PDAC phenotype and analysed the association of expression with outcome and response to chemotherapy. DESIGN: We analysed PDAC transcriptomic data, stratifying cases according to GATA4 and GATA6 expression and identified differentially expressed genes and pathways. The genome-wide distribution of GATA4 was assessed, as well as the effects of GATA4 knockdown. A multicentre tissue microarray study to assess GATA4 and GATA6 expression in samples (n=745) from patients with resectable was performed. GATA4 and GATA6 levels were dichotomised into high/low categorical variables; association with outcome was assessed using univariable and multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: GATA4 messenger RNA is enriched in classical, compared with basal-like tumours. We classified samples in 4 groups as high/low for GATA4 and GATA6. Reduced expression of GATA4 had a minor transcriptional impact but low expression of GATA4 enhanced the effects of GATA6 low expression. GATA4 and GATA6 display a partially overlapping genome-wide distribution, mainly at promoters. Reduced expression of both proteins in tumours was associated with the worst patient survival. GATA4 and GATA6 expression significantly decreased in metastases and negatively correlated with basal markers. CONCLUSIONS: GATA4 and GATA6 cooperate to maintain the classical phenotype. Our findings provide compelling rationale to assess their expression as biomarkers of poor prognosis and therapeutic response.

United Kingdom Early Detection Initiative (UK-EDI): protocol for establishing a national multicentre cohort of individuals with new-onset diabetes for early detection of pancreatic cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Pancreatic cancer is a leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Screening for this disease has potential to improve survival. It is not feasible, with current screening modalities, to screen the asymptomatic adult population. However, screening of individuals in high-risk groups is recommended. Our study aims to provide resources and data that will inform strategies to screen individuals with new-onset diabetes (NOD) for pancreatic cancer. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The United Kingdom Early Detection Initiative (UK-EDI) for pancreatic cancer is a national, prospective, observational cohort study that aims to recruit 2500 individuals with NOD (<6 months postdiagnosis) aged 50 years and over, with follow-up every 6 months, over a 3-year period. For study eligibility, diagnosis of diabetes is considered to be clinical measurement of haemoglobin A1c ≥48 mmol/mol. Detailed clinical information and biospecimens will be collected at baseline and follow-up to support the development of molecular, epidemiological and demographic biomarkers for earlier detection of pancreatic cancer in the high-risk NOD group. Socioeconomic impacts and cost-effectiveness of earlier detection of pancreatic cancer in individuals with NOD will be evaluated. The UK-EDI NOD cohort will provide a bioresource for future early detection research to be conducted. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The UK-EDI study has been reviewed and approved by the London-West London and GTAC Research Ethics Committee (Ref 20/LO/0058). Study results will be disseminated through presentations at national and international symposia and publication in peer-reviewed, Open Access journals.

Genetically Determined Telomere Length Is Associated with Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms Onset.

INTRODUCTION: Telomere length (TL) is a potential indicator of cancer predisposition; however, the multitude of techniques used to measure it causes the results to be heterogeneous and, in some cases, controversial. In the last years, several studies adopted a strategy based on TL-associated genetic variants to generate a polygenic score, often referred as teloscore, used in lieu of direct TL measurement. For pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (PanNEN), this strategy has not been attempted yet. METHODS: A teloscore was generated using 11 SNPs (NAF1-rs7675998, ZNF676-rs409627, TERC-rs10936599, CTC1-rs3027234, PXK-rs6772228, DHX35-rs6028466, OBFC1-rs9420907, ZNF208-rs8105767, ACYP2-rs11125529, TERT-rs2736100, and ZBTB46-rs755017), and 291 PanNEN cases and 1,686 controls collected by the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium were genotyped to analyse the association of the teloscore and its individual SNPs with the risk of developing PanNEN. RESULTS: An association between genetically determined long telomeres and the risk of developing PanNEN (OR = 1.99, CI: 1.33-2.98, p = 0.0008) for highest versus median (third) quintile was observed. In addition, two novel SNPs associated with PanNEN risk were identified: ZNF676-rs409627 (ORC/C_vs_G/G = 2.27, CI: 1.58-3.27, p = 8.80 × 10-6) and TERT-rs2736100 (ORC/A_vs_C/C = 2.03, CI: 1.42-2.91, p = 1.06 × 10-4). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, this study provides for the first time a clear indication of the association between long genetically determined telomeres and increased risk of developing PanNEN.

Blood levels of adiponectin and IL-1Ra distinguish type 3c from type 2 diabetes: Implications for earlier pancreatic cancer detection in new-onset diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in populations at high risk is recommended. Individuals with new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus (NOD) are the largest high-risk group for PDAC. To facilitate screening, we sought biomarkers capable of stratifying NOD subjects into those with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and those with the less prevalent PDAC-related diabetes (PDAC-DM), a form of type 3c DM commonly misdiagnosed as T2DM. METHODS: Using mass spectrometry- and immunoassay-based methodologies in a multi-stage analysis of independent sample sets (n=443 samples), blood levels of 264 proteins were considered using Ingenuity Pathway Analysis, literature review and targeted training and validation. FINDINGS: Of 30 candidate biomarkers evaluated in up to four independent patient sets, 12 showed statistically significant differences in levels between PDAC-DM and T2DM. The combination of adiponectin and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra) showed strong diagnostic potential, (AUC of 0.91; 95% CI: 0.84-0.99) for the distinction of T3cDM from T2DM. INTERPRETATION: Adiponectin and IL-1Ra warrant further consideration for use in screening for PDAC in individuals newly-diagnosed with T2DM. FUNDING: North West Cancer Research, UK, Cancer Research UK, Pancreatic Cancer Action, UK.

Concordance of human equilibrative nucleoside transporter-1 expressions between murine (10D7G2) and rabbit (SP120) antibodies and association with clinical outcomes of adjuvant chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer: A collaborative study from the JASPAC 01 trial.

BACKGROUND: Expression of human equilibrative nucleoside transporter-1 (hENT1) is reported to predict survival of gemcitabine (GEM)-treated patients. However, predictive values of immunohistochemical hENT1 expression may differ according to the antibodies, 10D7G2 and SP120. AIM: We aimed to investigate the concordance of immunohistochemical hENT1 expression between the two antibodies and prognosis. METHODS: The subjects of this study were totally 332 whose formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded specimens and/or unstained sections were obtained. The individual H-scores and four classifications according to the staining intensity were applied for the evaluation of hENT1 expression by 10D7G2 and SP120, respectively. RESULTS: The highest concordance rate (79.8%) was obtained when the cut-off between high and low hENT1 expression using SP120 was set between moderate and strong. There were no correlations of hENT1 mRNA level with H-score (p = .258). Although the hENT1 mRNA level was significantly different among four classifications using SP120 (p = .011), there was no linear relationship among them. Multivariate analyses showed that adjuvant GEM was a significant predictor of the patients with low hENT1 expression using either 10D7G2 (Hazard ratio [HR] 2.39, p = .001) or SP120 (HR 1.84, p < .001). In contrast, agent for adjuvant chemotherapy was not significant predictor for the patients with high hENT1 expression regardless of the kind of antibody. CONCLUSION: The present study suggests that the two antibodies for evaluating hENT1 expression are equivalent depending on the cut-off point and suggests that S-1 is the first choice of adjuvant chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer with low hENT1 expression, whereas either S-1 or GEM can be introduced for the pancreatic cancer with high hENT1 expression, no matter which antibody is used.

Identification of Recessively Inherited Genetic Variants Potentially Linked to Pancreatic Cancer Risk.

Although 21 pancreatic cancer susceptibility loci have been identified in individuals of European ancestry through genome-wide association studies (GWASs), much of the heritability of pancreatic cancer risk remains unidentified. A recessive genetic model could be a powerful tool for identifying additional risk variants. To discover recessively inherited pancreatic cancer risk loci, we performed a re-analysis of the largest pancreatic cancer GWAS, the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan) and the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4), including 8,769 cases and 7,055 controls of European ancestry. Six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed associations with pancreatic cancer risk according to a recessive model of inheritance. We replicated these variants in 3,212 cases and 3,470 controls collected from the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium. The results of the meta-analyses confirmed that rs4626538 (7q32.2), rs7008921 (8p23.2) and rs147904962 (17q21.31) showed specific recessive effects (p<10-5) compared with the additive effects (p>10-3), although none of the six SNPs reached the conventional threshold for genome-wide significance (p < 5×10-8). Additional bioinformatic analysis explored the functional annotations of the SNPs and indicated a possible relationship between rs36018702 and expression of the BCL2L11 and BUB1 genes, which are known to be involved in pancreatic biology. Our findings, while not conclusive, indicate the importance of considering non-additive genetic models when performing GWAS analysis. The SNPs associated with pancreatic cancer in this study could be used for further meta-analysis for recessive association of SNPs and pancreatic cancer risk and might be a useful addiction to improve the performance of polygenic risk scores.

hENT1 Predicts Benefit from Gemcitabine in Pancreatic Cancer but Only with Low CDA mRNA.

Gemcitabine or 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) based treatments can be selected for pancreatic cancer. Equilibrative nucleoside transporter 1 (hENT1) predicts adjuvant gemcitabine treatment benefit over 5-FU. Cytidine deaminase (CDA), inside or outside of the cancer cell, will deaminate gemcitabine, altering transporter affinity. ESPAC-3(v2) was a pancreatic cancer trial comparing adjuvant gemcitabine and 5-FU. Tissue microarray sections underwent in situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry. Analysis of both CDA and hENT1 was possible with 277 patients. The transcript did not correlate with protein levels for either marker. High hENT1 protein was prognostic with gemcitabine; median overall survival was 26.0 v 16.8 months (p = 0.006). Low CDA transcript was prognostic regardless of arm; 24.8 v 21.2 months with gemcitabine (p = 0.02) and 26.4 v 14.6 months with 5-FU (p = 0.02). Patients with low hENT1 protein did better with 5-FU, but only if the CDA transcript was low (median survival of 5-FU v gemcitabine; 29.3 v 18.3 months, compared with 14.2 v 14.6 with high CDA). CDA mRNA is an independent prognostic biomarker. When added to hENT1 protein status, it may also provide treatment-specific predictive information and, within the frame of a personalized treatment strategy, guide to either gemcitabine or 5FU for the individual patient.

Genetic Polymorphisms Involved in Mitochondrial Metabolism and Pancreatic Cancer Risk.

BACKGROUND: The mitochondrial metabolism has been associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) risk. Recent evidence also suggests the involvement of the genetic variability of the mitochondrial function in several traits involved in PDAC etiology. However, a systematic investigation of the genetic variability of mitochondrial genome (mtSNP) and of all the nuclear genes involved in its functioning (n-mtSNPs) has never been reported. METHODS: We conducted a two-phase association study of mtSNPs and n-mtSNPs to assess their effect on PDAC risk. We analyzed 35,297 n-mtSNPs and 101 mtSNPs in up to 55,870 individuals (12,884 PDAC cases and 42,986 controls). In addition, we also conducted a gene-based analysis on 1,588 genes involved in mitochondrial metabolism using Multi-marker Analysis of GenoMic Annotation (MAGMA) software. RESULTS: In the discovery phase, we identified 49 n-mtSNPs and no mtSNPs associated with PDAC risk (P < 0.05). In the second phase, none of the findings were replicated. In the gene-level analysis, we observed that three genes (TERT, SUGCT, and SURF1) involved in the mitochondrial metabolism showed an association below the Bonferroni-corrected threshold of statistical significance (P = 0.05/1588 = 3.1 × 10-5). CONCLUSIONS: Even though the mitochondrial metabolism might be involved in PDAC etiology, our results, obtained in a study with one of the largest sample sizes to date, show that neither n-mtSNPs nor mtSNPs are associated with PDAC risk. IMPACT: This large case-control study does not support a role of the genetic variability of the mitochondrial function in PDAC risk.

A multilayered post-GWAS assessment on genetic susceptibility to pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a complex disease in which both non-genetic and genetic factors interplay. To date, 40 GWAS hits have been associated with PC risk in individuals of European descent, explaining 4.1% of the phenotypic variance. METHODS: We complemented a new conventional PC GWAS (1D) with genome spatial autocorrelation analysis (2D) permitting to prioritize low frequency variants not detected by GWAS. These were further expanded via Hi-C map (3D) interactions to gain additional insight into the inherited basis of PC. In silico functional analysis of public genomic information allowed prioritization of potentially relevant candidate variants. RESULTS: We identified several new variants located in genes for which there is experimental evidence of their implication in the biology and function of pancreatic acinar cells. Among them is a novel independent variant in NR5A2 (rs3790840) with a meta-analysis p value = 5.91E-06 in 1D approach and a Local Moran's Index (LMI) = 7.76 in 2D approach. We also identified a multi-hit region in CASC8-a lncRNA associated with pancreatic carcinogenesis-with a lowest p value = 6.91E-05. Importantly, two new PC loci were identified both by 2D and 3D approaches: SIAH3 (LMI = 18.24), CTRB2/BCAR1 (LMI = 6.03), in addition to a chromatin interacting region in XBP1-a major regulator of the ER stress and unfolded protein responses in acinar cells-identified by 3D; all of them with a strong in silico functional support. CONCLUSIONS: This multi-step strategy, combined with an in-depth in silico functional analysis, offers a comprehensive approach to advance the study of PC genetic susceptibility and could be applied to other diseases.

Deciphering the complex interplay between pancreatic cancer, diabetes mellitus subtypes and obesity/BMI through causal inference and mediation analyses.

OBJECTIVES: To characterise the association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) subtypes (new-onset T2DM (NODM) or long-standing T2DM (LSDM)) and pancreatic cancer (PC) risk, to explore the direction of causation through Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis and to assess the mediation role of body mass index (BMI). DESIGN: Information about T2DM and related factors was collected from 2018 PC cases and 1540 controls from the PanGenEU (European Study into Digestive Illnesses and Genetics) study. A subset of PC cases and controls had glycated haemoglobin, C-peptide and genotype data. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied to derive ORs and 95% CIs. T2DM and PC-related single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) were used as instrumental variables (IVs) in bidirectional MR analysis to test for two-way causal associations between PC, NODM and LSDM. Indirect and direct effects of the BMI-T2DM-PC association were further explored using mediation analysis. RESULTS: T2DM was associated with an increased PC risk when compared with non-T2DM (OR=2.50; 95% CI: 2.05 to 3.05), the risk being greater for NODM (OR=6.39; 95% CI: 4.18 to 9.78) and insulin users (OR=3.69; 95% CI: 2.80 to 4.86). The causal association between T2DM (57-SNP IV) and PC was not statistically significant (ORLSDM=1.08, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.29, ORNODM=1.06, 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.17). In contrast, there was a causal association between PC (40-SNP IV) and NODM (OR=2.85; 95% CI: 2.04 to 3.98), although genetic pleiotropy was present (MR-Egger: p value=0.03). Potential mediating effects of BMI (125-SNPs as IV), particularly in terms of weight loss, were evidenced on the NODM-PC association (indirect effect for BMI in previous years=0.55). CONCLUSION: Findings of this study do not support a causal effect of LSDM on PC, but suggest that PC causes NODM. The interplay between obesity, PC and T2DM is complex.

Polygenic and multifactorial scores for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma risk prediction.

BACKGROUND: Most cases of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) are asymptomatic in early stages, and the disease is typically diagnosed in advanced phases, resulting in very high mortality. Tools to identify individuals at high risk of developing PDAC would be useful to improve chances of early detection. OBJECTIVE: We generated a polygenic risk score (PRS) for PDAC risk prediction, combining the effect of known risk SNPs, and carried out an exploratory analysis of a multifactorial score. METHODS: We tested the associations of the individual known risk SNPs on up to 2851 PDAC cases and 4810 controls of European origin from the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium. Thirty risk SNPs were included in a PRS, which was computed on the subset of subjects that had 100% call rate, consisting of 839 cases and 2040 controls in PANDoRA and 6420 cases and 4889 controls from the previously published Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium I-III and Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium genome-wide association studies. Additional exploratory multifactorial scores were constructed by complementing the genetic score with smoking and diabetes. RESULTS: The scores were associated with increased PDAC risk and reached high statistical significance (OR=2.70, 95% CI 1.99 to 3.68, p=2.54×10-10 highest vs lowest quintile of the weighted PRS, and OR=14.37, 95% CI 5.57 to 37.09, p=3.64×10-8, highest vs lowest quintile of the weighted multifactorial score). CONCLUSION: We found a highly significant association between a PRS and PDAC risk, which explains more than individual SNPs and is a step forward in the direction of the construction of a tool for risk stratification in the population.

A combination of urinary biomarker panel and PancRISK score for earlier detection of pancreatic cancer: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the deadliest cancers, with around 9% of patients surviving >5 years. Asymptomatic in its initial stages, PDAC is mostly diagnosed late, when already a locally advanced or metastatic disease, as there are no useful biomarkers for detection in its early stages, when surgery can be curative. We have previously described a promising biomarker panel (LYVE1, REG1A, and TFF1) for earlier detection of PDAC in urine. Here, we aimed to establish the accuracy of an improved panel, including REG1B instead of REG1A, and an algorithm for data interpretation, the PancRISK score, in additional retrospectively collected urine specimens. We also assessed the complementarity of this panel with CA19-9 and explored the daily variation and stability of the biomarkers and their performance in common urinary tract cancers. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Clinical specimens were obtained from multiple centres: Barts Pancreas Tissue Bank, University College London, University of Liverpool, Spanish National Cancer Research Center, Cambridge University Hospital, and University of Belgrade. The biomarker panel was assayed on 590 urine specimens: 183 control samples, 208 benign hepatobiliary disease samples (of which 119 were chronic pancreatitis), and 199 PDAC samples (102 stage I-II and 97 stage III-IV); 50.7% were from female individuals. PDAC samples were collected from patients before treatment. The samples were assayed using commercially available ELISAs. Statistical analyses were performed using non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis tests adjusted for multiple comparisons, and multiple logistic regression. Training and validation datasets for controls and PDAC samples were obtained after random division of the whole available dataset in a 1:1 ratio. The substitution of REG1A with REG1B enhanced the performance of the panel to detect resectable PDAC. In a comparison of controls and PDAC stage I-II samples, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) increased from 0.900 (95% CI 0.843-0.957) and 0.926 (95% CI 0.843-1.000) in the training (50% of the dataset) and validation sets, respectively, to 0.936 in both the training (95% CI 0.903-0.969) and the validation (95% CI 0.888-0.984) datasets for the new panel including REG1B. This improved panel showed both sensitivity (SN) and specificity (SP) to be >85%. Plasma CA19-9 enhanced the performance of this panel in discriminating PDAC I-II patients from controls, with AUC = 0.992 (95% CI 0.983-1.000), SN = 0.963 (95% CI 0.913-1.000), and SP = 0.967 (95% CI 0.924-1.000). We demonstrate that the biomarkers do not show significant daily variation, and that they are stable for up to 5 days at room temperature. The main limitation of our study is the low number of stage I-IIA PDAC samples (n = 27) and lack of samples from individuals with hereditary predisposition to PDAC, for which specimens collected from control individuals were used as a proxy. CONCLUSIONS: We have successfully validated our urinary biomarker panel, which was improved by substituting REG1A with REG1B. At a pre-selected cutoff of >80% SN and SP for the affiliated PancRISK score, we demonstrate a clinically applicable risk stratification tool with a binary output for risk of developing PDAC ('elevated' or 'normal'). PancRISK provides a step towards precision surveillance for PDAC patients, which we will test in a prospective clinical study, UroPanc.

International consensus guidelines on surveillance for pancreatic cancer in chronic pancreatitis. Recommendations from the working group for the international consensus guidelines for chronic pancreatitis in collaboration with the International Association of Pancreatology, the American Pancreatic Association, the Japan Pancreas Society, and European Pancreatic Club.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) have an increased risk of pancreatic cancer. We present the international consensus guidelines for surveillance of pancreatic cancer in CP. METHODS: The international group evaluated 10 statements generated from evidence on 5 questions relating to pancreatic cancer in CP. The GRADE approach was used to evaluate the level of evidence available per statement. The working group voted on each statement for strength of agreement, using a nine-point Likert scale in order to calculate Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient. RESULTS: In the following domains there was strong consensus: (1) the risk of pancreatic cancer in affected individuals with hereditary pancreatitis due to inherited PRSS1 mutations is high enough to justify surveillance; (2) the risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with CP associated with SPINK1 p. N34S is not high enough to justify surveillance; (3) surveillance should be undertaken in pancreatic specialist centers; (4) surveillance should only be introduced after the age of 40 years and stopped when the patient would no longer be suitable for surgical intervention. All patients with CP should be advised to lead a healthy lifestyle aimed at avoiding risk factors for progression of CP and pancreatic cancer. There was only moderate or weak agreement on the best methods of screening and surveillance in other types of environmental, familial and genetic forms of CP. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with inherited PRSS1 mutations should undergo surveillance for pancreatic cancer, but the best methods for cancer detection need further investigation.