Predicting Incident Multimorbidity.

PURPOSE: Multimorbidity is associated with adverse outcomes, yet research on the determinants of its incidence is lacking. We investigated which sociodemographic, health, and individual lifestyle (eg, physical activity, smoking behavior, body mass index) characteristics predict new cases of multimorbidity. METHODS: We used data from 4,564 participants aged 50 years and older in the English Longitudinal Study of Aging that included a 10-year follow-up period. Discrete time-to-event (complementary log-log) models were constructed for exploring the associations of baseline characteristics with outcomes between 2002-2003 and 2012-2013 separately for participants with no initial conditions (n = 1,377) developing multimorbidity, any increase in conditions within 10 years regardless of initial conditions, and the impact of individual conditions on incident multimorbidity. RESULTS: The risks of developing multimorbidity were positively associated with age, and they were greater for the least wealthy, for participants who were obese, and for those who reported the lowest levels of physical activity or an external locus of control (believing that life events are outside of one's control) for all groups regardless of baseline conditions (all linear trends <.05). No significant associations were observed for sex, educational attainment, or social detachment. For participants with any increase in conditions (n = 4,564), a history of smoking was the only additional predictor. For participants with a single baseline condition (n = 1,534), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, and arrhythmia showed the strongest associations with subsequent multimorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the development and implementation of a strategy targeting the prevention of multimorbidity for susceptible groups. This approach should incorporate behavior change addressing lifestyle factors and target health-related locus of control.

Obesity in Older People With and Without Conditions Associated With Weight Loss: Follow-up of 955,000 Primary Care Patients.

BACKGROUND: Moderate obesity in later life may improve survival, prompting calls to revise obesity control policies. However, this obesity paradox may be due to confounding from smoking, diseases causing weight-loss, plus varying follow-up periods. We aimed to estimate body mass index (BMI) associations with mortality, incident type 2 diabetes, and coronary heart disease in older people with and without the above confounders. METHODS: Cohort analysis in Clinical Practice Research Datalink primary care, hospital and death certificate electronic medical records in England for ages 60 to more than 85 years. Models were adjusted for age, gender, alcohol use, smoking, calendar year, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Overall, BMI 30-34.9 (obesity class 1) was associated with lower overall death rates in all age groups. However, after excluding the specific confounders and follow-up less than 4 years, BMI mortality risk curves at age 65-69 were U-shaped, with raised risks at lower BMIs, a nadir between 23 and 26.9 and steeply rising risks above. In older age groups, mortality nadirs were at modestly higher BMIs (all <30) and risk slopes at higher BMIs were less marked, becoming nonsignificant at age 85 and older. Incidence of diabetes was raised for obesity-1 at all ages and for coronary heart disease to age 84. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity is associated with shorter survival plus higher incidence of coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes in older populations after accounting for the studied confounders, at least to age 84. These results cast doubt on calls to revise obesity control policies based on the claimed risk paradox at older ages.

Events in Early Life are Associated with Female Reproductive Ageing: A UK Biobank Study.

The available oocyte pool is determined before birth, with the majority of oocytes lost before puberty. We hypothesised that events occurring before birth, in childhood or in adolescence ('early-life risk factors') could influence the size of the oocyte pool and thus the timing of menopause. We included cross-sectional data from 273,474 women from the UK Biobank, recruited in 2006-2010 from across the UK. We analysed the association of early menopause with events occurring before adulthood in 11,781 cases (menopause aged under 45) and 173,641 controls (menopause/pre-menopausal at ≥ 45 years), in models controlling for potential confounding variables. Being part of a multiple birth was strongly associated with early menopause (odds ratio = 1.42, confidence interval: 1.11, 1.82, P = 8.0 × 10(-9), fully-adjusted model). Earlier age at menarche (odds ratio = 1.03, confidence interval: 1.01, 1.06, P = 2.5 × 10(-6)) and earlier year of birth were also associated with EM (odds ratio = 1.02, confidence interval: 1.00, 1.04, P = 8.0 × 10(-6)). We also confirmed previously reported associations with smoking, drinking alcohol, educational level and number of births. We identified an association between multiple births and early menopause, which connects events pre-birth, when the oocyte pool is formed, with reproductive ageing in later life.

Any versus long-term prescribing of high risk medications in older people using 2012 Beers Criteria: results from three cross-sectional samples of primary care records for 2003/4, 2007/8 and 2011/12.

BACKGROUND: High risk medications are commonly prescribed to older US patients. Currently, less is known about high risk medication prescribing in other Western Countries, including the UK. We measured trends and correlates of high risk medication prescribing in a subset of the older UK population (community/institutionalized) to inform harm minimization efforts. METHODS: Three cross-sectional samples from primary care electronic clinical records (UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD) in fiscal years 2003/04, 2007/08 and 2011/12 were taken. This yielded a sample of 13,900 people aged 65 years or over from 504 UK general practices. High risk medications were defined by 2012 Beers Criteria adapted for the UK. Using descriptive statistical methods and regression modelling, prevalence of 'any' (drugs prescribed at least once per year) and 'long-term' (drugs prescribed all quarters of year) high risk medication prescribing and correlates were determined. RESULTS: While polypharmacy rates have risen sharply, high risk medication prevalence has remained stable across a decade. A third of older (65+) people are exposed to high risk medications, but only half of the total prevalence was long-term (any = 38.4 % [95 % CI: 36.3, 40.5]; long-term = 17.4 % [15.9, 19.9] in 2011/12). Long-term but not any high risk medication exposure was associated with older ages (85 years or over). Women and people with higher polypharmacy burden were at greater risk of exposure; lower socio-economic status was not associated. Ten drugs/drug classes accounted for most of high risk medication prescribing in 2011/12. CONCLUSIONS: High risk medication prescribing has not increased over time against a background of increasing polypharmacy in the UK. Half of patients receiving high risk medications do so for less than a year. Reducing or optimising the use of a limited number of drugs could dramatically reduce high risk medications in older people. Further research is needed to investigate why the oldest old and women are at greater risk. Interventions to reduce high risk medications may need to target shorter and long-term use separately.

Much more medicine for the oldest old: trends in UK electronic clinical records.

BACKGROUND: the oldest old (85+) pose complex medical challenges. Both underdiagnosis and overdiagnosis are claimed in this group. OBJECTIVE: to estimate diagnosis, prescribing and hospital admission prevalence from 2003/4 to 2011/12, to monitor trends in medicalisation. DESIGN AND SETTING: observational study of Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) electronic medical records from general practice populations (eligible; n = 27,109) with oversampling of the oldest old. METHODS: we identified 18 common diseases and five geriatric syndromes (dizziness, incontinence, skin ulcers, falls and fractures) from Read codes. We counted medications prescribed ≥1 time in all quarters of studied years. RESULTS: there were major increases in recorded prevalence of most conditions in the 85+ group, especially chronic kidney disease (stages 3-5: prevalence <1% rising to 36.4%). The proportions of the 85+ group with ≥3 conditions rose from 32.2 to 55.1% (27.1 to 35.1% in the 65-84 year group). Geriatric syndrome trends were less marked. In the 85+ age group the proportion receiving no chronically prescribed medications fell from 29.6 to 13.6%, while the proportion on ≥3 rose from 44.6 to 66.2%. The proportion of 85+ year olds with ≥1 hospital admissions per year rose from 27.6 to 35.4%. CONCLUSIONS: there has been a dramatic increase in the medicalisation of the oldest old, evident in increased diagnosis (likely partly due to better record keeping) but also increased prescribing and hospitalisation. Diagnostic trends especially for chronic kidney disease may raise concerns about overdiagnosis. These findings provide new urgency to questions about the appropriateness of multiple diagnostic labelling.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between childhood overweight and obesity and primary school diet and physical activity policies.

Obesity is a major public health concern and there are increasing calls for policy intervention. As obesity and the related health conditions develop during childhood, schools are being seen as important locations for obesity prevention, including multifaceted interventions incorporating policy elements. The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the effects of policies related to diet and physical activity in schools, either alone, or as part of an intervention programme on the weight status of children aged 4 to 11 years. A comprehensive and systematic search of medical, education, exercise science, and social science databases identified 21 studies which met the inclusion criteria. There were no date, location or language restrictions. The identified studies evaluated a range of either, or both, diet and physical activity related policies, or intervention programmes including such policies, using a variety of observational and experimental designs. The policies were clustered into those which sought to affect diet, those which sought to affect physical activity and those which sought to affect both diet and physical activity to undertake random effects meta-analysis. Within the diet cluster, studies of the United States of America National School Lunch and School Breakfast Programs were analysed separately; however there was significant heterogeneity in the pooled results. The pooled effects of the physical activity, and other diet related policies on BMI-SDS were non-significant. The multifaceted interventions tended to include policy elements related to both diet and physical activity (combined cluster), and although these interventions were too varied to pool their results, significant reductions in weight-related outcomes were demonstrated. The evidence from this review suggests that, when implemented alone, school diet and physical activity related policies appear insufficient to prevent or treat overweight or obesity in children, however, they do appear to have an effect when developed and implemented as part of a more extensive intervention programme. Additional evidence is required before recommendations regarding the focus of policies can be made and therefore, increased effort should be made to evaluate the effect of policies and policy containing intervention programmes upon weight status.

Urinary bisphenol a concentration and angiography-defined coronary artery stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Bisphenol A is widely used in food and drinks packaging. There is evidence of associations between raised urinary bisphenol A (uBPA) and increased incidence of reported cardiovascular diagnoses. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To estimate associations between BPA exposure and angiographically graded coronary atherosclerosis. 591 patients participating in The Metabonomics and Genomics in Coronary Artery Disease (MaGiCAD) study in Cambridgeshire UK, comparing urinary BPA (uBPA) with grades of severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) on angiography. Linear models were adjusted for BMI, occupational social class and diabetes status. Severe (one to three vessel) CAD was present in 385 patients, 86 had intermediate disease (n=86) and 120 had normal coronary arteries. The (unadjusted) median uBPA concentration was 1.28 ng/mL with normal coronary arteries, and 1.53 ng/mL with severe CAD. Compared to those with normal coronary arteries, uBPA concentration was significantly higher in those with severe CAD (OR per uBPA SD=5.96 ng/ml OR=1.43, CI 1.03 to 1.98, p=0.033), and near significant for intermediate disease (OR=1.69, CI 0.98 to 2.94, p=0.061). There was no significant uBPA difference between patients with severe CAD (needing surgery) and the remaining groups combined. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: BPA exposure was higher in those with severe coronary artery stenoses compared to those with no vessel disease. Larger studies are needed to estimate true dose response relationships. The mechanisms underlying the association remain to be established.

Urinary bisphenol A concentration and risk of future coronary artery disease in apparently healthy men and women.

BACKGROUND: The endocrine-disrupting chemical bisphenol A (BPA) is widely used in food and beverage packaging. Higher urinary BPA concentrations were cross-sectionally associated with heart disease in National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003-2004 and NHANES 2005-2006, independent of traditional risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 758 incident coronary artery disease (CAD) cases and 861 controls followed for 10.8 years from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk UK. Respondents aged 40 to 74 years and free of CAD, stroke, or diabetes mellitus provided baseline spot urine samples. Urinary BPA concentrations (median value, 1.3 ng/mL) were low. Per-SD (4.56 ng/mL) increases in urinary BPA concentration were associated with incident CAD in age-, sex-, and urinary creatinine-adjusted models (n=1919; odds ratio=1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.24; P=0.017). With CAD risk factor adjustment (including education, occupational social class, body mass index category, systolic blood pressure, lipid concentrations, and exercise), the estimate was similar but narrowly missed 2-sided significance (n=1744; odds ratio=1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.23; P=0.058). Sensitivity analyses with the fully adjusted model, excluding those with early CAD (<3-year follow-up), body mass index >30, or abnormal renal function or with additional adjustment for vitamin C, C-reactive protein, or alcohol consumption, all produced similar estimates, and all showed associations at P≤0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Associations between higher BPA exposure (reflected in higher urinary concentrations) and incident CAD during >10 years of follow-up showed trends similar to previously reported cross-sectional findings in the more highly exposed NHANES respondents. Further work is needed to accurately estimate the prospective exposure-response curve and to establish the underlying mechanisms.

Association of urinary bisphenol a concentration with heart disease: evidence from NHANES 2003/06.

BACKGROUND: Bisphenol A (BPA) is a high production volume chemical widely used in food and drinks packaging. Associations have previously been reported between urinary BPA concentrations and heart disease, diabetes and liver enzymes in adult participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003/04. We aimed to estimate associations between urinary BPA concentrations and health measures in NHANES 2005/06 and in data pooled across collection years. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: A cross-sectional analysis of NHANES: subjects were n = 1455 (2003/04) and n = 1493 (2005/06) adults aged 18-74 years, representative of the general adult population of the United States. Regression models were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, income, smoking, BMI, waist circumference, and urinary creatinine concentration. Main outcomes were reported diagnoses of heart attack, coronary heart disease, angina and diabetes and serum liver enzyme levels. Urinary BPA concentrations in 2005/06 (geometric mean 1.79 ng/ml, 95% CI: 1.64 to 1.96) were lower than in 2003/04 (2.49 ng/ml, CI: 2.20 to 2.83, difference p-value = 0.00002). Higher BPA concentrations were associated with coronary heart disease in 2005/06 (OR per z-score increase in BPA = 1.33, 95%CI: 1.01 to 1.75, p = 0.043) and in pooled data (OR = 1.42, CI: 1.17 to 1.72, p = 0.001). Associations with diabetes did not reach significance in 2005/06, but pooled estimates remained significant (OR = 1.24, CI: 1.10 to 1.40, p = 0.001). There was no overall association with gamma glutamyl transferase concentrations, but pooled associations with alkaline phosphatase and lactate dehydrogenase remained significant. CONCLUSIONS: Higher BPA exposure, reflected in higher urinary concentrations of BPA, is consistently associated with reported heart disease in the general adult population of the USA. Studies to clarify the mechanisms of these associations are urgently needed.

Association between serum perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and thyroid disease in the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

BACKGROUND: Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA, also known as C8) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) are stable compounds with many industrial and consumer uses. Their persistence in the environment plus toxicity in animal models has raised concern over low-level chronic exposure effects on human health. OBJECTIVES: We estimated associations between serum PFOA and PFOS concentrations and thyroid disease prevalence in representative samples of the U.S. general population. METHODS: Analyses of PFOA/PFOS versus disease status in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for 1999-2000, 2003-2004, and 2005-2006 included 3,974 adults with measured concentrations for perfluorinated chemicals. Regression models were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, smoking status, body mass index, and alcohol intake. RESULTS: The NHANES-weighted prevalence of reporting any thyroid disease was 16.18% (n = 292) in women and 3.06% (n = 69) in men; prevalence of current thyroid disease with related medication was 9.89% (n = 163) in women and 1.88% (n = 46) in men. In fully adjusted logistic models, women with PFOA >or= 5.7 ng/mL [fourth (highest) population quartile] were more likely to report current treated thyroid disease [odds ratio (OR) = 2.24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.38-3.65; p = 0.002] compared with PFOA or= 36.8 ng/mL (quartile 4) versus

Association of urinary bisphenol A concentration with medical disorders and laboratory abnormalities in adults.

CONTEXT: Bisphenol A (BPA) is widely used in epoxy resins lining food and beverage containers. Evidence of effects in animals has generated concern over low-level chronic exposures in humans. OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between urinary BPA concentrations and adult health status. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional analysis of BPA concentrations and health status in the general adult population of the United States, using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2004. Participants were 1455 adults aged 18 through 74 years with measured urinary BPA and urine creatinine concentrations. Regression models were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, income, smoking, body mass index, waist circumference, and urinary creatinine concentration. The sample provided 80% power to detect unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) of 1.4 for diagnoses of 5% prevalence per 1-SD change in BPA concentration, or standardized regression coefficients of 0.075 for liver enzyme concentrations, at a significance level of P < .05. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Chronic disease diagnoses plus blood markers of liver function, glucose homeostasis, inflammation, and lipid changes. RESULTS: Higher urinary BPA concentrations were associated with cardiovascular diagnoses in age-, sex-, and fully adjusted models (OR per 1-SD increase in BPA concentration, 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.63; P = .001 with full adjustment). Higher BPA concentrations were also associated with diabetes (OR per 1-SD increase in BPA concentration, 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-1.60; P < .001) but not with other studied common diseases. In addition, higher BPA concentrations were associated with clinically abnormal concentrations of the liver enzymes gamma-glutamyltransferase (OR per 1-SD increase in BPA concentration, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.14-1.46; P < .001) and alkaline phosphatase (OR per 1-SD increase in BPA concentration, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.18-1.85; P = .002). CONCLUSION: Higher BPA exposure, reflected in higher urinary concentrations of BPA, may be associated with avoidable morbidity in the community-dwelling adult population.

The effects of halothane and isoflurane on cardiovascular function in dorsally recumbent horses undergoing surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the haemodynamic effects of halothane and isoflurane with spontaneous and controlled ventilation in dorsally recumbent horses undergoing elective surgery. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective randomized clinical trial. ANIMALS: Twenty-five adult horses, body mass 487 kg (range: 267-690). METHODS: Horses undergoing elective surgery in dorsal recumbency were randomly assigned to one of four treatment groups, isoflurane (I) or halothane (H) anaesthesia, each with spontaneous (SB) or controlled ventilation (IPPV). Indices of cardiac function and femoral arterial blood flow (ABF) and resistance were measured using transoesophageal and transcutaneous Doppler echocardiography, respectively. Arterial blood pressure was measured directly. RESULTS: Four horses assigned to receive isoflurane and spontaneous ventilation (SBI) required IPPV, leaving only three groups for analysis: SBH, IPPVH and IPPVI. Two horses were excluded from the halothane groups because dobutamine was infused to maintain arterial blood pressure. Cardiac index (CI) was significantly greater, and pre-ejection period (PEP) shorter, during isoflurane compared with halothane anaesthesia with both spontaneous (p = 0.04, p = 0.0006, respectively) or controlled ventilation (p = 0.04, p = 0.008, respectively). There was an association between CI and PaCO(2) (p = 0.04) such that CI increased by 0.45 L minute(-1)m(-2) for every kPa increase in PaCO(2). Femoral ABF was only significantly higher during isoflurane compared with halothane anaesthesia during IPPV (p = 0.0006). There was a significant temporal decrease in CI, but not femoral arterial flow. CONCLUSION: The previously reported superior cardiovascular function during isoflurane compared with halothane anaesthesia was maintained in horses undergoing surgery. However, in these clinical subjects, a progressive decrease in CI, which was independent of ventilatory mode, was observed with both anaesthetic agents. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Cardiovascular function may deteriorate progressively in horses anaesthetized for brief (<2 hours) surgical procedures in dorsal recumbency. Although cardiovascular function is superior with isoflurane in dorsally recumbent horses, the need for IPPV may be greater.

A questionnaire-based study of gestation, parturition and neonatal mortality in pedigree breeding cats in the UK.

This study was based on a convenience-sampling questionnaire study of pedigree cat breeding in the UK. Data were collated for the births of 1,056 litters from 14 different pedigree breeds and 942 different households. Significant relationships between various outcomes and relevant predictors were assessed by multiple linear regression or logistic regression as appropriate. The overall mean gestation length of 65.1 days varied significantly between the breeds (P<0.0001), and larger litter sizes were associated with shorter gestation lengths (P=0.04). The mean litter size of 4.6 kittens also varied significantly according to breed (P<0.0001). The weight of kittens born alive (overall mean 93.5 g) increased with longer gestation lengths (P=0.0003), decreased with larger litter sizes (P<0.0001) and varied between the breeds (P<0.0001). A total of 8.0% of pregnancies resulted in a caesarean section, with a higher risk associated with smaller litter sizes (P=0.002). Although the frequency of caesarean sections varied from 0 to 18.5% between individual breeds, breed itself was not shown to have a significant independent effect on this likelihood. A mean of 7.2% of all the kittens were stillborn, which varied according to breed (P=0.0003), and the risk of a stillborn kitten increased with litter size (P=0.0001), and with the presence of congenital defects in the litter (P=0.0002). The mean kitten mortality between birth and 8 weeks of age was 9.1%, and the majority of these occurred in the first week of life. Parturition intervals varied widely. The duration of first stage of labour was less than 2h in 82.9% of cats. The interval between the birth of the first and last kitten was less than 6h in 85.7%, but more than 48 h in three cats. A maximum of 48 h was recorded between the births of individual kittens in unassisted deliveries.