Clinical significance of circulating biomarkers of immune-checkpoint molecules with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab therapy in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The aims of this study were to identify clinically significant biomarkers of a response to atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (ATZ + BV) therapy and to develop target strategies against unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (u-HCC). METHOD: We first investigated the potential of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) to serve as a biomarker for predicting the therapeutic outcome in 24 u-HCC patients treated with ATZ + BV therapy. Next, we analyzed levels of immune-related cytokines in blood samples from 134 u-HCC patients who received ATZ + BV. For this, serum immune-related molecules or cancer-immune cycle-related molecules that have been reported in HCC patient sera, namely CD274, LAG-3, CCL2, 4, 5, CXCL1, 9, 10, 12, 13, CX3CL1, CCR5, IFNγ and IL-6, 8 were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: More than 1% of variant read frequency (VRF) mutations were found in TP53, APC, PIK3CA and VHL, although with no correlation with treatment response. Among the 15 cytokines evaluated, CXCL9 and LAG-3 levels were significantly different between patients with objective response (OR), stable disease (SD), and progressive disease (PD) following ATZ + BV treatment. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analyses of CXCL9 (cut-off value: 419.1 pg/ml) and LAG-3 (cut-off value: 3736.3 pg/ml) indicated areas of 0.779 and 0.697, respectively, for differentiating PD from non-PD and OR from non-OR. In multivariate analysis of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), high serum CXCL9 (hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.412 (0.251-0.677) (p = 0.0005) for PFS and 0.252 (0.125-0.508) (p = 0.0001) for OS), and low serum LAG-3 (HR and 95% CI 0.419 (0.249-0.705) (p = 0.0011) for PFS and 0.294 (0.140-0.617) (p = 0.0012) for OS) were independent positive predictive factors. CONCLUSION: Although, as far as we examined, no ctDNA mutations in blood were found to be related to ATZ + BV treatment efficacy, serum CXCL9 and LAG-3 levels, which are related to the cancer-immune cycle, were associated with treatment efficacy and could be predictive markers of the efficacy of ATZ + BV treatment in HCC patients.

Evaluation of the associations of interlukin-7 genetic variants with toxicity and efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors: A replication study of a Japanese population, based on the findings of a European genome-wide association study.

AIM: Recent genome-wide association studies of European populations have identified rs16906115, a single-nucleotide polymorphism in the interleukin-7 gene, as a predictor of immune-related adverse events (irAEs) and the therapeutic efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors. We evaluated this single-nucleotide polymorphism in a Japanese population. METHODS: From January 2021, we stored host DNA from individuals who received various types of immune checkpoint inhibitors. From this population, we categorized 510 participants into cases (grade ≥2 irAEs) and controls (received ≥3 immune checkpoint inhibitor doses, follow-up ≥12 weeks, no irAEs), and divided 339 hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with atezolizumab/bevacizumab into responders and non-responders, evaluated using the modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors. We compared the minor allele frequencies of rs16906115 between cases and controls, and responders and non-responders. RESULTS: In the irAE prediction analysis of 234 cases and 276 controls, the minor allele frequency was 0.244 in the case group and 0.265 in the control group. This difference is not significant. In the analysis predicting the therapeutic efficacy for hepatocellular carcinoma patients, the responders had a significantly lower minor allele frequency of 0.220, compared with 0.300 for the non-responders (p = 0.022). Univariate and multivariate analyses identified the minor allele homozygosity as a significant predictor of treatment response, with odds ratios of 0.292 (p = 0.015) in the univariate analysis and 0.315 (p = 0.023) in the multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In our Japanese cohort, no association was found between the rs16906115 minor allele and irAEs or treatment efficacy. The minor allele homozygosity may be associated with a negative therapeutic outcome. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: UMIN Clinical Trials Registry with the number UMIN000043798.

C-reactive Protein-to-Albumin Ratio: A Useful Predictor for Biliary Fistula After Hepatectomy.

Introduction Postoperative bile leakage (POBL) has emerged as a complication following hepatectomy. POBL is associated with an elevated risk of liver failure and surgical death. This study aimed to examine risk factors for POBL in primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Methods A total of 296 patients who had surgical resection for a preoperative diagnosis of primary HCC from January 2013 to December 2022 at Ehime Prefectural Central Hospital were included in this study. The patients were categorized into two groups based on the presence of POBL. The preoperative, operative, and histopathological findings were analyzed between the two groups. Risk factors were determined using multivariable analysis. Results Regarding preoperative findings, statistically significant differences were observed in white blood cell count, platelet count, C-reactive protein (CRP) level, and CRP-to-Albumin ratio (CAR) between the two groups (p = 0.023, p = 0.025, p = 0.011, and p = 0.012, respectively). As for intraoperative variables, only operation time (p = 0.017) was statistically correlated with the risk of POBL. Regarding pathological variables, there were no statistically significant differences between the two groups. The optimal cut-off value of CAR, as determined by ROC curve analysis, was 0.053. This value had a sensitivity of 80.0% and a specificity of 72.8%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that CAR ≥ 0.053 (p = 0.030) and operation time ≥ 308 min (p = 0.023) were independent potential markers for POBL after hepatectomy. Conclusion A high CAR level can be an effective predictor for POBL following hepatectomy.

Ramucirumab for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in the current real world: a Japanese single-arm study post-REACH-2 (The R-evolution study).

This study aimed to complement the results of the REACH-2 study by prospectively evaluating the safety and efficacy of ramucirumab in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a real-world setting. This was an open-label, nonrandomized, multicenter, prospective study conducted at 13 institutions in Japan (jRCTs031190236). The study included Child-Pugh Class A patients with advanced HCC who had received pretreatment with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) or lenvatinib. Ramucirumab was introduced as a second-line treatment after Atez/Bev or lenvatinib and as a third-line treatment after Atez/Bev and lenvatinib. Between May 2020 and July 2022, we enrolled 19 patients, including 17 who received ramucirumab. Additionally, seven patients received lenvatinib, another seven patients received Atez/Bev, and three patients received Atez/Bev followed by lenvatinib as prior treatment. The primary endpoint was a 6-month progression-free survival (PFS) rate, which was 14.3%. The median PFS and overall survival were 3.7 and 12.0 months, respectively. The most common grade ≥ 3 adverse events (AEs) were hypertension (23.5%), proteinuria (17.6%), and neutropenia (11.8%). The discontinuation rate due to AEs was 29.4%. Six patients progressed from Child-Pugh A to B after treatment with ramucirumab. Thirteen patients were eligible for post-ramucirumab treatment, including systemic therapy. Despite the limited number of patients, the efficacy of ramucirumab was comparable to that observed in the REACH-2 study when used after lenvatinib and Atez/Bev. However, the incidence of AEs was higher than that in the REACH-2 study.

ALBI score predicts morphological changes in esophageal varices following direct-acting antiviral-induced sustained virological response in patients with liver cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to clarify the morphological changes in esophageal varices after achieving sustained virological response (SVR) with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 243 patients underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy before DAA treatment and after achieving SVR. Morphological changes in esophageal varices were investigated using esophagogastroduodenoscopy. RESULTS: This study comprised 125 males and 118 females with a median age of 68 years. Esophageal varices at baseline were classified into no varix in 155 (63.8%), F1 in 59 (24.3%), F2 in 25 (10.3%) and F3 in 4 (1.6%) patients. The improvement, unchanged, and aggravation rates of esophageal varices after SVR were 11.9%, 73.3%, and 14.8%, respectively. High ALBI score at SVR12 was an independent factor associated with post-SVR esophageal varices aggravation (p = 0.045). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed a cut-off value of - 2.33 for ALBI score at SVR12 in predicting post-SVR esophageal varices aggravation. Of the 155 patients without esophageal varices at baseline, 17 developed de novo post-SVR esophageal varices. High ALBI score at SVR12 was a significant independent factor associated with de novo post-SVR esophageal varices (p = 0.046). ROC curve analysis revealed a cut-off value of - 2.65 for ALBI score at SVR12 in predicting de novo post-SVR esophageal varices. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with cirrhosis can experience esophageal varices aggravation or de novo esophageal varices, despite achieving SVR. In particular, patients with high ALBI score at SVR12 have a high likelihood of developing post-SVR esophageal varices aggravation or de novo post-SVR esophageal varices.

Multicenter Phase II Trial of Lenvatinib plus Hepatic Intra-Arterial Infusion Chemotherapy with Cisplatin for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: LEOPARD.

Introduction: Hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) with cisplatin and lenvatinib exhibits strong antitumor effects against advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Higher antitumor activity is expected for the combination treatment. The aim of this trial was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of lenvatinib in combination with HAIC using cisplatin in patients with advanced HCC. Methods: In this multicenter, open-labeled, single-arm, phase II trial, patients with advanced HCC categorized as Child-Pugh class A with no prior history of systemic therapy were enrolled. Patients received lenvatinib plus HAIC with cisplatin (lenvatinib: 12 mg once daily for patients ≥60 kg, 8 mg once daily for patients <60 kg; HAIC with cisplatin: 65 mg/m2, day 1, every 4-6 weeks, maximum of six cycles). The primary endpoint was the objective response rate (ORR) assessed using modified RECIST by the Independent Review Committee. The secondary endpoints were the ORR assessed using RECIST v1.1, progression-free survival, overall survival, and frequency of adverse events associated with the treatment. Results: A total of 36 patients were enrolled between September 2018 and March 2020. In the 34 evaluable patients, the ORR assessed by the Independent Review Committee using modified RECIST and RECIST v1.1 were 64.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 46.5-80.3%) and 45.7% (95% CI: 28.8-63.4%), respectively. The median progression-free survival and overall survival were 6.3 months (95% CI: 5.1-7.9 months) and 17.2 months (95% CI: 10.9 - not available, months), respectively. The main grade 3-4 adverse events were increased aspartate aminotransferase (34%), leukopenia (22%), increased alanine aminotransferase (19%), and hypertension (11%). Conclusion: Lenvatinib plus HAIC with cisplatin yielded a favorable ORR and overall survival and was well tolerated in patients with advanced HCC. Further evaluation of this regimen in a phase III trial is warranted.

Incidence and Predictors of Esophagogastric Varices Bleeding in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Lenvatinib.

Introduction: Lenvatinib is indicated for the forefront treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC), but its use may be limited by the risk of esophagogastric varices (EGV) bleeding. This study assessed the prevalence, predictors, and complications of EGV in aHCC patients treated with lenvatinib. Methods: In this multicenter international retrospective study, cirrhotic patients treated with lenvatinib for aHCC, were enrolled if upper-gastrointestinal endoscopy was available within 6 months before treatment. Primary endpoint was the incidence of EGV bleeding during lenvatinib therapy; secondary endpoints were predictors for EGV bleeding, prevalence, and risk factors for the presence of EGV and high-risk EGV at baseline, as well as impact of EGV bleeding on patients' survival. Results: 535 patients were enrolled in the study (median age: 72 years, 78% male, 63% viral etiology, 89% Child-Pugh A, 16% neoplastic portal vein thrombosis [nPVT], 56% Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer-C): 234 had EGV (44%), 70 (30%) were at high risk and 59 were on primary prophylaxis. During lenvatinib treatment, 17 patients bled from EGV (3 grade 5), the 12-month cumulative incidence being 3%. The only baseline independent predictor of EGV bleeding was the presence of baseline high-risk EGV (hazard ratio: 6.94, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.23-21.57, p = 0.001). In these patients the 12-month risk was 17%. High-risk varices were independently associated with Child-Pugh B score (odds ratio [OR]: 2.12; 95% CI: 1.08-4.17, p = 0.03), nPVT (OR: 2.54; 95% CI: 1.40-4.61, p = 0.002), and platelets <150,000/µL (OR: 2.47; 95% CI: 1.35-4.50, p = 0.003). Conclusion: In hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with lenvatinib, the risk of EGV bleeding was mostly low but significant only in patients with high-risk EGV at baseline.

Outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab in real-world clinical practice who met or did not meet the inclusion criteria for the phase 3 IMbrave150 trial.

BACKGROUND: Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atezo/Bev) is frequently selected as the primary systemic therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). AIMS: To investigate the outcomes of patients with HCC treated with Atezo/Bev in a real-world setting based on whether they met the inclusion criteria for the phase 3 IMbrave150 trial. METHODS: A total of 936 patients were enrolled. There were 404 patients who met the inclusion criteria of the phase 3 IMbrave150 trial (IMbrave150 group) and 532 who did not (non-IMbrave150 group). RESULTS: Median progression-free survival (PFS) in the IMbrave150 and non-IMbrave150 groups was 7.4 months and 5.6 months (p = 0.002). Multivariable analysis revealed that non-B, non-C HCC aetiology (hazard ratio [HR], 1.173), α-fetoprotein ≥100 ng/mL (HR, 1.472), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage ≥ C (HR, 1.318), and modified albumin-bilirubin (mALBI) grade 2b or 3 (HR, 1.476) are independently associated with PFS. Median overall survival (OS) in the IMbrave150 and non-Imbrave150 groups was 26.5 and 18.8 months (p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis revealed that Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥2 (HR, 1.986), α-fetoprotein ≥100 ng/mL (HR, 1.481), and mALBI grade 2b or 3 (HR, 2.037) are independently associated with OS. In subgroup analysis, there were no significant differences in PFS or OS between these groups among patients with mALBI grade 1 or 2a. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who are treated with Atezo/Bev and meet the inclusion criteria for the phase 3 IMbrave150 trial, as well as those who do not meet the inclusion criteria but have good liver function, have a good prognosis for survival.

Changes in characteristics of gastroenterology center inpatients in Japan because of rapidly aging society.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Rapidly aging societies have become a major issue worldwide including Japan. This study aimed to elucidate relative changes in the characteristics of inpatients in Japan related to this issue. METHODS: A total of 23 835 Japanese inpatients treated from 2010 to 2021 were enrolled (2010-2013, period I; 2014-2017, period II; 2018-2021, period III). Changes in clinical features were retrospectively analyzed based on ICD-10 diagnosis data. RESULTS: The percentage of patients aged over 75 years increased over time (period I, 38.0%; II, 39.5%, III, 41.4%). Emergency admissions comprised 27.5% of all in period I, which increased to 43.2% in period II and again to 44.5% in period III (P < 0.001). In period I, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, pancreatic-biliary disease, and other disease types were noted in 47.4%, 29.5%, 19.2%, and 3.9%, respectively, while those values were 44.0%, 18.0%, 33.9%, and 4.1%, respectively, in period III (P < 0.001). The frequency of liver disease decreased by approximately 0.6-fold from periods I to III, while that of biliary-pancreatic disease increased by approximately 1.8-fold during that time. Both percentage and actual numbers of patients with biliary-pancreatic disease increased during the examined periods. Analysis of changes in the proportion of organs affected by malignancy during periods I, II, and III showed a marked increase in cases of biliary-pancreatic malignancy (11.6%, 19.5%, 26.6%, respectively) (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In association with the rapidly aging Japanese society, there has been an increasing frequency of biliary-pancreatic disease cases requiring hospitalization for treatment in the west Japan region of Shikoku.

Changes in clinical outcomes in Japanese patients with hepatocellular carcinoma due to hepatitis C virus following the development of direct-acting antiviral agents.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have been accessible in Japan since 2014. The aim of this study is to compare how the prognosis of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCV-HCC) changed before and after DAA development. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 1949 Japanese HCV-HCC patients from January 2000 to January 2023 categorized them into pre-DAA (before 2013, n = 1169) and post-DAA (after 2014, n = 780) groups. Changes in clinical features and prognosis were assessed. RESULTS: Despite no significant differences in BCLC stage between groups, the post-DAA group exhibited higher rates of sustained virological response (SVR) (45.6% vs. 9.8%), older age (73 vs 69 years), lower levels of AST (40 vs 56 IU/L), ALT (31 vs 46 IU/L), and AFP (11.7 vs 23.6 ng/mL), higher platelet count (13.5 vs 10.8 × 104/µL), better prothrombin time (88.0% vs 81.9%), and better ALBI score (-2.54 vs -2.36) (all P < 0.001). The post-DAA group also showed higher rates of curative treatments (74.1% vs 65.2%) and significantly improved recurrence-free survival (median 2.8 vs 2.1 years). Adjusted for inverse probability weighting, overall survival was superior in the post-DAA group (median 7.4 vs 5.6 years, P < 0.001). Subanalysis within the post-DAA group revealed significantly shorter overall survival for patients without SVR (median 4.8 years vs NA vs NA) compared to pre-SVR or post-SVR patients (both P < 0.001). No significant difference in OS was observed between the pre-SVR and post-SVR groups (P = 1.0). CONCLUSION: The development of DAA therapy has dramatically improved the prognosis of HCV-HCC patients.

Clinical usefulness of newly developed prognostic predictive score for atezolizumab plus bevacizumab for hepatocellular carcinoma.

AIMS: The aim of the present study was to elucidate detailed parameters for prediction of prognosis for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) treatment. METHODS: A total of 719 patients (males 577, median age 74 years) treated with Atez/Bev between September 2020 and January 2023 were enrolled. Factors related to overall survival (OS) were extracted and a prognostic scoring system based on hazard ratio (HR) was created. OS and progression-free survival (PFS) were retrospectively examined, and the prognostic ability of the newly developed system was compared to CRAFITY score using concordance index (c-index) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) results. RESULTS: Cox-hazards multivariate analysis showed BCLC classification C/D (HR 1.4; 1 point), AFP ≥100 ng/mL (HR 1.4; 1 point), mALBI 2a (HR 1.7; 1 point), mALBI 2b/3 (HR 2.8; 2 points), and DCP ≥100 mAU/mL (HR 1.6; 1 point) as significant factors. The assigned points were added and used to develop the IMmunotherapy with AFP, BCLC staging, mALBI, and DCP evaluation (IMABALI-De) scoring system. For IMABALI-De scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, OS was not applicable (NA), NA, 26.11, 18.79, 14.07, and 8.32 months, respectively (p < .001; AIC 2788.67, c-index 0.699), while for CRAFITY scores of 0, 1, and 2, OS was 26.11, 20.29, and 11.32 months, respectively (p < .001; AIC 2864.54, c-index 0.606). PFS periods for those IMABALI-De scores were 21.75, 12.89, 9.18, 8.0, 5.0, and 3.75 months, respectively (p < .001; AIC 5203.32, c-index 0.623) and for the CRAFITY scores were 10.32, 7.68, and 3.57 months, respectively (p < .001; AIC 5246.61, c-index 0.574). As compared with CRAFITY score, IMABALI-De score had better AIC and c-index results for both OS and PFS. CONCLUSION: The present results indicated that the proposed IMABALI-De score may be favorable for predicting prognosis of uHCC patients receiving Atez/Bev therapy.

Clinical features of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with radiofrequency ablation therapy: developing a simple score to determine the need for immune-adjuvant therapy.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Unresectable recurrence after curative treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a life-limited event. Although the IMbrave050 trial (IM050) showed a favorable reduction in recurrence with adjuvant immune-combination chemotherapy, inclusion criteria of the radiofrequency ablation (RFA) group were lower risk than that of the resection group. This study aimed to elucidate the clinical features of patients treated with RFA, which really need adjuvant-chemotherapy. METHODS: From 2000 to 2022, 528 patients with Child-Pugh A and HCC within the Milan criteria (MC), who met the IM050 criteria for RFA and undergone resection or RFA, were enrolled (71 years, HCV:HBV:HBV/HCV:alcohol:others = 337:44:5:53:89, multi-tumor = 138, RFA:resection = 309:219). Unresectable recurrence was defined as beyond the MC. Risk factors for recurrence beyond the MC were retrospectively evaluated. RESULTS: Multivariate Cox-hazard analysis showed HCV-positive (HR 1.49), AFP-L3 > 10% (HR 1.75), and DCP > 100 mAU/mL (HR1.80) as significant prognostic factors for recurrence beyond the MC (each P < 0.05). Summing of positive factors (1 point for each) was used for scoring (AD-ON score), which showed increased positive rates for micro-hepatic vein invasion (score 0:1:2:3 = 0%:1.1%:6.6%:15.8%), micro-portal vein invasion (0:1:2:3 = 2.0%:12.1%:14.1%:31.6%), and poor differentiation (0:1:2:3 = 6.0%:6.7%:15.3%:15.8%) in the resection group associated with a greater score (each P < 0.01). In patients treated with RFA, those with greater AD-ON scores showed shorter time to recurrence beyond the MC, recurrence-free time, and overall survival (score 0:1:2:3 = no-estimation:97:66:23 months, 35:27:20:12 months, and 91:82:67:52 months, respectively, each P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: HCC patients treated by RFA and with a high AD-ON score (≧2) should be considered for aggressive adjuvant-chemotherapy to prolong the period of recurrence beyond the MC.

Impact of body mass index on the prognosis of unresectable HCC patients receiving first-line Lenvatinib or atezolizumab plus bevacizumab.

INTRODUCTION: Overweight is a negative prognostic factor in the general population in the long term. However, the role of body mass index (BMI) in the short-mid term in advanced tumours is unclear. The present analysis investigates the role of BMI weight classes in a large sample of patients affected by HCC and receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or lenvatinib as first-line treatment. METHODS AND MATERIAL: The cohort included consecutive patients affected by BCLC-c and BCLC-B HCC patients from a multicenter international study group who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or lenvatinib as first-line therapy. Population was stratified according to the BMI in under-, over- and normal-weight according to the conventional thresholds. The primary objective of the study was to evaluate the prognostic and predictive impact of BMI in patients affected by advanced or intermediate HCC. Survival curves were estimated using the product-limit method of Kaplan-Meier. The role of stratification factors was analysed with log-rank tests. RESULTS: 1292 consecutive patients with HCC were analysed. 466 (36%) patients were treated with lenvatinib and 826 (64%) patients were treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab. In the atezolizumab plus bevacizumab arm, 510 (62%) patients were normal-weight, 52 (6%) underweight and 264 (32%) overweight. At the univariate analysis for OS, underweight patients had significantly shorter OS compared to normal-weight patients, whereas no differences were found between normal-weight versus overweight. Multivariate analysis confirmed that underweight patients had significantly shorter OS compared to normal-weight patients (HR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.0-2.8; p = .0323). In the lenvatinib arm, 26 patients (5.6%) were categorized as underweight, 256 (54.9%) as normal-weight, and 184 (39.5%) as overweight. At the univariate analysis for OS, no significant differences were found between normal-weight versus underweight and between normal-weight versus overweight, which was confirmed at multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Our analysis highlighted a prognostic role of BMI in a cohort of patients with advanced HCC who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, while no prognostic role for low BMI was apparent in patients who received lenvatinib.

mADRES predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with hepatitis C virus who achieved sustained virological response.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The study aims to develop a novel predictive model including the fibrosis (FIB)-3 index for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. METHODS: This study included 2529 patients in whom HCV was eradicated with DAA therapy. The after DAA recommendation for surveillance (ADRES) score, which is based on sex, FIB-4 index, and α-fetoprotein, was used to predict HCC development. We developed a modified ADRES (mADRES) score, in which the FIB-4 index was replaced by the FIB-3 index, and evaluated its usefulness in predicting HCC development compared with the ADRES score. RESULTS: In the training set (n = 1770), multivariate analysis with Cox proportional hazards modeling showed that male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-3.01), FIB-3 index (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.28-1.45), and α-fetoprotein (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.07) are independently associated with HCC development. The incidence of HCC differed significantly by ADRES or mADRES score in multiple comparisons. Univariate Cox proportional hazards models showed that compared with the mADRES score 0 group, the HR for HCC development was 2.07 (95% CI, 1.02-4.19) for the mADRES score 1 group, 11.37 (95% CI, 5.80-22.27) for the mADRES score 2 group, and 21.95 (95% CI, 10.17-47.38) for the mADRES score 3 group. Similar results were obtained for mADRES score but not for ADRES score in the validation set (n = 759). CONCLUSION: The mADRES score is useful for predicting HCC development after SVR.

Comparison of six hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models in Japanese patients after sustained virologic response undergoing rigorous surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: While several predictive models for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been proposed, including those for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR), the best model may differ between regions. We compared the ability of six reported models to stratify the risk of post-SVR HCC in Japan, where rigorous surveillance and early detection of HCC is common. METHODS: A total of 6048 patients with no history of HCC who achieved SVR by oral direct-acting antiviral drugs were enrolled in this nationwide study. Patients continued HCC surveillance every 6 months after SVR. The incidence of post-SVR HCC was compared between risk groups using the aMAP score, FIB-4 index, Tahata model, GAF4 criteria, GES score, and ADRES score. RESULTS: During the observation period with a median duration of 4.0 years after SVR, post-SVR HCC developed in 332 patients (5.5%). All six models performed significantly at stratifying the incidence of HCC. However, Harrell's C-index was below 0.8 for all models (range, 0.660-0.748), indicating insufficient stratification ability. CONCLUSION: Although all six proposed models demonstrated a good ability to predict the development of post-SVR HCC, their ability to stratify the risk of post-SVRHCC was unsatisfactory. Further studies are necessary to identify the best model for assessing the risk of post-SVR HCC in regions where early detection of HCC is common.

Comparison of prognostic impact of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab versus lenvatinib in patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The study goal was to compare the outcomes of patients with intermediate-stage (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer [BCLC]-B) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atezo/Bev) or lenvatinib (LEN) as first-line systemic therapy. METHODS: A total of 358 patients with BCLC-B HCC treated with Atezo/Bev (n = 177) or LEN (n = 181) as first-line systemic therapy were included. RESULTS: The median progression-free survival (PFS) times in the Atezo/Bev and LEN groups were 10.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.8-12.6) and 7.3 months (95% CI, 6.3-8.5), respectively (p = .019). In the propensity score-matched cohort, the median PFS times in the Atezo/Bev (n = 151) and LEN (n = 151) groups were 10.2 months (95% CI, 7.0-12.3) and 6.9 months (95% CI, 5.9-8.1), respectively (p = .020). Restricted mean survival times of PFS were significantly higher in the Atezo/Bev group than in the LEN group at landmarks of 12 and 18 months (p = .031 and .012, respectively). In a subgroup analysis of patients with HCC beyond the up-to-seven criteria, the median PFS times in the Atezo/Bev (n = 134) and LEN (n = 117) groups were 10.5 months (95% CI, 7.0-11.8) and 6.3 months (95% CI, 5.5-7.3), respectively (p = .044). CONCLUSIONS: The use of Atezo/Bev as first-line systemic therapy in patients with BCLC-B HCC is expected to result in good PFS.

Treatment options for solitary hepatocellular carcinoma ≤5 cm: surgery vs. ablation: a multicenter retrospective study.

BACKGROUND/AIM: The aim of this study was to compare the therapeutic efficacy of ablation and surgery in solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) measuring ≤5 cm with a large HCC cohort database. METHODS: The study included consecutive 2,067 patients with solitary HCC who were treated with either ablation (n=1,248) or surgery (n=819). Th e patients were divided into three groups based on the tumor size and compared the outcomes of the two therapies using propensity score matching. RESULTS: No significant difference in recurrence-free survival (RFS) or overall survival (OS) was found between surgery and ablation groups for tumors measuring ≤2 cm or >2 cm but ≤3 cm. For tumors measuring >3 cm but ≤5 cm, RFS was significantly better with surgery than with ablation (3.6 and 2.0 years, respectively, P=0.0297). However, no significant difference in OS was found between surgery and ablation in this group (6.7 and 6.0 years, respectively, P=0.668). CONCLUSION: The study suggests that surgery and ablation can be equally used as a treatment for solitary HCC no more than 3 cm in diameter. For HCCs measuring 3-5 cm, the OS was not different between therapies; thus, ablation and less invasive therapy can be considered a treatment option; however, special caution should be taken to prevent recurrence.

Simple Scoring System for Esophagogastric Varices Prediction in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients without Liver Stiffness Evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: For predicting esophagogastric varices (EGVs), the Virtual Baveno VII Consensus Workshop has proposed a combination of liver stiffness determination and platelet count measurement using a FibroScan®. However, FibroScan® is not available at all institutions. The present study aimed to develop a simple method to predict development of EGV using only general blood examination results. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 1,090 hepatocellular carcinoma patients were enrolled, after excluding 956 with major portal vein tumor thrombus (Vp3/Vp4) or without upper gastrointestinal endoscopy examination results available. Those with EGV (≥ grade F2) or a history of treatment for the condition were defined as positive for significant EGV, and then clinical factors were retrospectively evaluated to determine indicators of occurrence. RESULTS: Logistic multivariate analysis showed platelet count (≤12 × 104/µL) (odds ratio [OR] 3.79, p < 0.001), mALBI grade 2a (OR 1.52, p = 0.036), and mALBI 2b or 3 (OR 3.46, p < 0.001) as significant predictive factors. Based on the OR values, platelet count (≤12 × 104/µL) and mALBI grade 2b/3 were each assigned 2 points and mALBI 2a was given 1 point, with the result termed recommendation for EGV screening (REGS) score. Significant EGV occurrence was noted in 2.9% (9/311) of the patients with a REGS score 0, 11.0% (13/118) with a score 1, 19.3% (53/274) with a score 2, 29.5% (39/132) with a score 3, and 38.0% (97/255) with a score 4 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The findings indicate that REGS score can provide useful predictive information for development of significant EGV without the need for special equipment such as a FibroScan®.

Comparative analysis of the therapeutic outcomes of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and lenvatinib for hepatocellular carcinoma patients aged 80 years and older: Multicenter study.

AIM: Elderly patients are believed to have a reduced immune capacity, which may make immunotherapy less effective. The aim of this study was to compare the therapeutic outcome of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) and lenvatinib (LEN) for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients aged 80 years and older. METHODS: From March 2018 to July 2022, 170 and 92 elderly patients who received LEN and Atez/Bev as first-line treatment, respectively, were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS: The median ages of the Atez/Bev and LEN groups were 83.0 (8.01-86.0) and 83.0 (82.0-86.0) years (p = 0.3), respectively. Men accounted for approximately 70% of the patients in both groups. The objective response rate was 35.9% in the LEN group and 33.7% in the Atez/Bev group (p = 0.8), whereas the disease control rates in the LEN and Atez/Bev groups were 62.9% and 63.0%, respectively (p = 1.0). The median progression-free survival (PFS) in the LEN and Atez/Bev groups was 6.3 and 7.2 months, respectively, which were not significantly different (p = 0.2). The median overall survival (OS) was 17.9 months in the LEN group and 14.0 months in the Atez/Bev group. This difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.7). In multivariate analyses, the choice of treatment (LEN vs. Atez/Bev) showed no association with PFS or OS. The Atez/Bev group had a significantly higher rate of postprogression treatment (59.0% vs. 35.7%, p = 0.01) and a lower rate of discontinuation due to adverse events (69 [40.6%] vs. 19 [20.7%], p < 0.001) compared to the LEN group. CONCLUSIONS: Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab showed comparable effectiveness to LEN in HCC patients aged 80 years and older. Given the results of postprogression treatment and discontinuation due to adverse events, Atez/Bev could serve as a first-line treatment even for elderly HCC patients.