The Predictive Performance of a Pneumonia Severity Score in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-negative Children Presenting to Hospital in 7 Low- and Middle-income Countries.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, pneumonia remained the leading cause of mortality in children aged 1-59 months. METHODS: Data from 1802 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study with severe or very severe pneumonia during 2011-2014 were used to build a parsimonious multivariable model predicting mortality using backwards stepwise logistic regression. The PERCH severity score, derived from model coefficients, was validated on a second, temporally discrete dataset of a further 1819 cases and compared to other available scores using the C statistic. RESULTS: Predictors of mortality, across 7 low- and middle-income countries, were age <1 year, female sex, ≥3 days of illness prior to presentation to hospital, low weight for height, unresponsiveness, deep breathing, hypoxemia, grunting, and the absence of cough. The model discriminated well between those who died and those who survived (C statistic = 0.84), but the predictive capacity of the PERCH 5-stratum score derived from the coefficients was moderate (C statistic = 0.76). The performance of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children score was similar (C statistic = 0.76). The number of World Health Organization (WHO) danger signs demonstrated the highest discrimination (C statistic = 0.82; 1.5% died if no danger signs, 10% if 1 danger sign, and 33% if ≥2 danger signs). CONCLUSIONS: The PERCH severity score could be used to interpret geographic variations in pneumonia mortality and etiology. The number of WHO danger signs on presentation to hospital could be the most useful of the currently available tools to aid clinical management of pneumonia.

Microscopic Analysis and Quality Assessment of Induced Sputum From Children With Pneumonia in the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND.: It is standard practice for laboratories to assess the cellular quality of expectorated sputum specimens to check that they originated from the lower respiratory tract. The presence of low numbers of squamous epithelial cells (SECs) and high numbers of polymorphonuclear (PMN) cells are regarded as indicative of a lower respiratory tract specimen. However, these quality ratings have never been evaluated for induced sputum specimens from children with suspected pneumonia. METHODS.: We evaluated induced sputum Gram stain smears and cultures from hospitalized children aged 1-59 months enrolled in a large study of community-acquired pneumonia. We hypothesized that a specimen representative of the lower respiratory tract will contain smaller quantities of oropharyngeal flora and be more likely to have a predominance of potential pathogens compared to a specimen containing mainly saliva. The prevalence of potential pathogens cultured from induced sputum specimens and quantity of oropharyngeal flora were compared for different quantities of SECs and PMNs. RESULTS.: Of 3772 induced sputum specimens, 2608 (69%) had <10 SECs per low-power field (LPF) and 2350 (62%) had >25 PMNs per LPF, measures traditionally associated with specimens from the lower respiratory tract in adults. Using isolation of low quantities of oropharyngeal flora and higher prevalence of potential pathogens as markers of higher quality, <10 SECs per LPF (but not >25 PMNs per LPF) was the microscopic variable most associated with high quality of induced sputum. CONCLUSIONS.: Quantity of SECs may be a useful quality measure of induced sputum from young children with pneumonia.

Disease-specific mortality burdens in a rural Gambian population using verbal autopsy, 1998-2007.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate and evaluate the cause-of-death structure and disease-specific mortality rates in a rural area of The Gambia as determined using the InterVA-4 model. DESIGN: Deaths and person-years of observation were determined by age group for the population of the Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance area from January 1998 to December 2007. Causes of death were determined by verbal autopsy (VA) using the InterVA-4 model and ICD-10 disease classification. Assigned causes of death were classified into six broad groups: infectious and parasitic diseases; cancers; other non-communicable diseases; neonatal; maternal; and external causes. Poisson regression was used to estimate age and disease-specific mortality rates, and likelihood ratio tests were used to determine statistical significance. RESULTS: A total of 3,203 deaths were recorded and VA administered for 2,275 (71%). All-age mortality declined from 15 per 1,000 person-years in 1998-2001 to 8 per 1,000 person-years in 2005-2007. Children aged 1-4 years registered the most marked (74%) decline from 27 to 7 per 1,000 person-years. Communicable diseases accounted for half (49.9%) of the deaths in all age groups, dominated by acute respiratory infections (ARI) (13.7%), malaria (12.9%) and pulmonary tuberculosis (10.2%). The leading causes of death among infants were ARI (5.59 per 1,000 person-years [95% CI: 4.38-7.15]) and malaria (4.11 per 1,000 person-years [95% CI: 3.09-5.47]). Mortality rates in children aged 1-4 years were 3.06 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 2.58-3.63) for malaria, and 1.05 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 0.79-1.41) for ARI. The HIV-related mortality rate in this age group was 1.17 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 0.89-1.54). Pulmonary tuberculosis and communicable diseases other than malaria, HIV/AIDS and ARI were the main killers of adults aged 15 years and over. Stroke-related mortality increased to become the leading cause of death among the elderly aged 60 years or more in 2005-2007. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in the Farafenni HDSS area was dominated by communicable diseases. Malaria and ARI were the leading causes of death in the general population. In addition to these, diarrhoeal disease was a particularly important cause of death among children under 5 years of age, as was pulmonary tuberculosis among adults aged 15 years and above.

Coverage and timing of children's vaccination: an evaluation of the expanded programme on immunisation in The Gambia.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the coverage and timeliness of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) in The Gambia. METHODS: Vaccination data were obtained between January 2005 and December 2012 from the Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance System (FHDSS), the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS), the Kiang West Demographic surveillance system (KWDSS), a cluster survey in the more urban Western Health Region (WR) and a cross sectional study in four clinics in the semi-urban Greater Banjul area of WR. Kaplan-Meier survival function was used to estimate the proportion vaccinated by age and to assess timeliness to vaccination. FINDINGS: BCG vaccine uptake was over 95% in all regions. Coverage of DPT1 ranged from 93.2% in BHDSS to 99.8% in the WR. Coverage decreased with increasing number of DPT doses; DPT3 coverage ranged from 81.7% in BHDSS to 99.0% in WR. Measles vaccination coverage ranged from 83.3% in BHDSS to 97.0% in WR. DPT4 booster coverage was low and ranged from 43.9% in the WR to 82.8% in KWDSS. Across all regions, delaying on previous vaccinations increased the likelihood of being delayed for the subsequent vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: The Gambia health system achieves high vaccine coverage in the first year of life. However, there continues to be a delay to vaccination which may impact on the introduction of new vaccines. Examples of effectively functioning EPI programmes such as The Gambia one may well be important models for other low income countries struggling to achieve high routine vaccination coverage.

Discovery and validation of biomarkers to guide clinical management of pneumonia in African children.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in children globally. Clinical algorithms remain suboptimal for distinguishing severe pneumonia from other causes of respiratory distress such as malaria or distinguishing bacterial pneumonia and pneumonia from others causes, such as viruses. Molecular tools could improve diagnosis and management. METHODS: We conducted a mass spectrometry-based proteomic study to identify and validate markers of severity in 390 Gambian children with pneumonia (n = 204) and age-, sex-, and neighborhood-matched controls (n = 186). Independent validation was conducted in 293 Kenyan children with respiratory distress (238 with pneumonia, 41 with Plasmodium falciparum malaria, and 14 with both). Predictive value was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Lipocalin 2 (Lpc-2) was the best protein biomarker of severe pneumonia (AUC, 0.71 [95% confidence interval, .64-.79]) and highly predictive of bacteremia (78% [64%-92%]), pneumococcal bacteremia (84% [71%-98%]), and "probable bacterial etiology" (91% [84%-98%]). These results were validated in Kenyan children with severe malaria and respiratory distress who also met the World Health Organization definition of pneumonia. The combination of Lpc-2 and haptoglobin distinguished bacterial versus malaria origin of respiratory distress with high sensitivity and specificity in Gambian children (AUC, 99% [95% confidence interval, 99%-100%]) and Kenyan children (82% [74%-91%]). CONCLUSIONS: Lpc-2 and haptoglobin can help discriminate the etiology of clinically defined pneumonia and could be used to improve clinical management. These biomarkers should be further evaluated in prospective clinical studies.

Monitoring the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines into West Africa: design and implementation of a population-based surveillance system.

Routine use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in developing countries is expected to lead to a significant reduction in childhood deaths. However, PCVs have been associated with replacement disease with non-vaccine serotypes. We established a population-based surveillance system to document the direct and indirect impact of PCVs on the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and radiological pneumonia in those aged 2 months and older in The Gambia, and to monitor changes in serotype-specific IPD. Here we describe how this surveillance system was set up and is being operated as a partnership between the Medical Research Council Unit and the Gambian Government. This surveillance system is expected to provide crucial information for immunisation policy and serves as a potential model for those introducing routine PCV vaccination in diverse settings.

Association of secondhand smoke exposure with pediatric invasive bacterial disease and bacterial carriage: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: A number of epidemiologic studies have observed an association between secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure and pediatric invasive bacterial disease (IBD) but the evidence has not been systematically reviewed. We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of SHS exposure and two outcomes, IBD and pharyngeal carriage of bacteria, for Neisseria meningitidis (N. meningitidis), Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Two independent reviewers searched Medline, EMBASE, and selected other databases, and screened articles for inclusion and exclusion criteria. We identified 30 case-control studies on SHS and IBD, and 12 cross-sectional studies on SHS and bacterial carriage. Weighted summary odd ratios (ORs) were calculated for each outcome and for studies with specific design and quality characteristics. Tests for heterogeneity and publication bias were performed. Compared with those unexposed to SHS, summary OR for SHS exposure was 2.02 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.52-2.69) for invasive meningococcal disease, 1.21 (95% CI 0.69-2.14) for invasive pneumococcal disease, and 1.22 (95% CI 0.93-1.62) for invasive Hib disease. For pharyngeal carriage, summary OR was 1.68 (95% CI, 1.19-2.36) for N. meningitidis, 1.66 (95% CI 1.33-2.07) for S. pneumoniae, and 0.96 (95% CI 0.48-1.95) for Hib. The association between SHS exposure and invasive meningococcal and Hib diseases was consistent regardless of outcome definitions, age groups, study designs, and publication year. The effect estimates were larger in studies among children younger than 6 years of age for all three IBDs, and in studies with the more rigorous laboratory-confirmed diagnosis for invasive meningococcal disease (summary OR 3.24; 95% CI 1.72-6.13). CONCLUSIONS: When considered together with evidence from direct smoking and biological mechanisms, our systematic review and meta-analysis indicates that SHS exposure may be associated with invasive meningococcal disease. The epidemiologic evidence is currently insufficient to show an association between SHS and invasive Hib disease or pneumococcal disease. Because the burden of IBD is highest in developing countries where SHS is increasing, there is a need for high-quality studies to confirm these results, and for interventions to reduce exposure of children to SHS.

Metabolomic analysis in severe childhood pneumonia in the Gambia, West Africa: findings from a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death in young children globally and improved diagnostics are needed to better identify cases and reduce case fatality. Metabolomics, a rapidly evolving field aimed at characterizing metabolites in biofluids, has the potential to improve diagnostics in a range of diseases. The objective of this pilot study is to apply metabolomic analysis to childhood pneumonia to explore its potential to improve pneumonia diagnosis in a high-burden setting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Eleven children with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined severe pneumonia of non-homogeneous aetiology were selected in The Gambia, West Africa, along with community controls. Metabolomic analysis of matched plasma and urine samples was undertaken using Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography (UPLC) coupled to Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (TOFMS). Biomarker extraction was done using SIMCA-P+ and Random Forests (RF). 'Unsupervised' (blinded) data were analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA), while 'supervised' (unblinded) analysis was by Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) and Orthogonal Projection to Latent Structures (OPLS). Potential markers were extracted from S-plots constructed following analysis with OPLS, and markers were chosen based on their contribution to the variation and correlation within the data set. The dataset was additionally analyzed with the machine-learning algorithm RF in order to address issues of model overfitting and markers were selected based on their variable importance ranking. Unsupervised PCA analysis revealed good separation of pneumonia and control groups, with even clearer separation of the groups with PLS-DA and OPLS analysis. Statistically significant differences (p<0.05) between groups were seen with the following metabolites: uric acid, hypoxanthine and glutamic acid were higher in plasma from cases, while L-tryptophan and adenosine-5'-diphosphate (ADP) were lower; uric acid and L-histidine were lower in urine from cases. The key limitation of this study is its small size. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Metabolomic analysis clearly distinguished severe pneumonia patients from community controls. The metabolites identified are important for the host response to infection through antioxidant, inflammatory and antimicrobial pathways, and energy metabolism. Larger studies are needed to determine whether these findings are pneumonia-specific and to distinguish organism-specific responses. Metabolomics has considerable potential to improve diagnostics for childhood pneumonia.

Screening for tuberculosis among 2381 household contacts of sputum-smear-positive cases in The Gambia.

Contact investigation is a key component of tuberculosis (TB) control in developed, but not developing, countries. We aimed to measure the prevalence of TB among household contacts of sputum-smear-positive TB cases in The Gambia and to assess the sensitivity of an enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISPOT) assay in this regard. Household contacts of adult smear-positive TB patients were assessed by questionnaire, purified protein derivative (PPD) skin test, ELISPOT assay, physical examination, chest X-ray and sputum/gastric aspirate. Thirty-three TB cases were identified from 2174 of 2381 contacts of 317 adult smear-positive pulmonary TB patients, giving a prevalence of 1518/100000. The cases identified tended to have milder disease than those passively detected. The sensitivity of ESAT-6/CFP-10 ELISPOT test as a screening test for TB disease was estimated as 71%. Fifty-six per cent of contacts with a PPD skin test result >or=10mm induration had detectable responses to ESAT-6/CFP-10 by ELISPOT; 11% with a negative PPD skin test (<10mm) had a positive ESAT-6/CFP-10 response. Active screening for TB among contacts of TB patients may have a role in TB control in The Gambia. These individuals are a high-risk group, and the disease identified is less advanced than that found through passive case detection. An ELISPOT assay was relatively insensitive as a screening test for TB.