Impact of previous hepatitis B infection on the clinical outcomes from chronic hepatitis C? A population-level analysis.

Chronic coinfection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) is associated with adverse liver outcomes. The clinical impact of previous HBV infection on liver disease in HCV infection is unknown. We aimed at determining any association of previous HBV infection with liver outcomes using antibodies to the hepatitis B core antigen (HBcAb) positivity as a marker of exposure. The Scottish Hepatitis C Clinical Database containing data for all patients attending HCV clinics in participating health boards was linked to the HBV diagnostic registry and mortality data from Information Services Division, Scotland. Survival analyses with competing risks were constructed for time from the first appointment to decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related mortality. Records of 8513 chronic HCV patients were included in the analyses (87 HBcAb positive and HBV surface antigen [HBsAg] positive, 1577 HBcAb positive and HBsAg negative, and 6849 HBcAb negative). Multivariate cause-specific proportional hazards models showed previous HBV infection (HBcAb positive and HBsAg negative) significantly increased the risks of decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.01-1.65) and HCC (HR: 1.64, 95% CI: 1.09-2.49), but not liver-related death (HR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.80-1.30). This is the largest study to date showing an association between previous HBV infection and certain adverse liver outcomes in HCV infection. Our analyses add significantly to evidence which suggests that HBV infection adversely affects liver health despite apparent clearance. This has important implications for HBV vaccination policy and indications for prioritization of HCV therapy.

Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence and survival among people with hepatitis C: An international study.

This study evaluates trends in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence and survival in three settings, prior to introduction of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies. HCV notifications from British Columbia (BC), Canada; New South Wales (NSW), Australia; and Scotland (1995-2011/2012/2013, respectively) were linked to HCC diagnosis data via hospital admissions (2001-2012/2013/2014, respectively) and mortality (1995-2013/2014/2015, respectively). Age-standardized HCC incidence rates were evaluated, associated factors were assessed using Cox regression, and median survival time after HCC diagnosis was calculated. Among 58 487, 84 529 and 31 924 people with HCV in BC, NSW and Scotland, 734 (1.3%), 1045 (1.2%) and 345 (1.1%) had an HCC diagnosis. Since mid-2000s, HCC diagnosis numbers increased in all jurisdictions. Age-standardized HCC incidence rates remained stable in BC and Scotland and increased in NSW. The strongest predictor of HCC diagnosis was older age [birth <1945, aHR in BC 5.74, 95% CI 4.84, 6.82; NSW 9.26, 95% CI 7.93, 10.82; Scotland 12.55, 95% CI 9.19, 17.15]. Median survival after HCC diagnosis remained stable in BC (0.8 years in 2001-2006 and 2007-2011) and NSW (0.9 years in 2001-2006 and 2007-2013) and improved in Scotland (0.7 years in 2001-2006 to 1.5 years in 2007-2014). Across the settings, HCC burden increased, individual-level risk of HCC remained stable or increased, and HCC survival remained extremely low. These findings highlight the minimal impact of HCC prevention and management strategies during the interferon-based HCV treatment era and form the basis for evaluating the impact of DAA therapy in the coming years.

Limited impact of awareness-raising campaigns on hepatitis C testing practices among general practitioners.

The global hepatitis strategy calls for increased effort to diagnose those infected, with a target of 90% diagnosed by 2030. Scotland's Action Plan on Hepatitis C included awareness-raising campaigns, undertaken during 2008-2011, to promote testing by general practitioners. We examined hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing practice among general practitioners before and following these campaigns. Scottish general practitioners were surveyed, using Dillman's method, in 2007 and 2013; response rates were 69% and 60%, respectively. Most respondents offer testing when presented with a risk history (86% in 2007, 88% in 2013) but only one-fifth actively sought out risk factors (19% in 2007, 21% in 2013). Testing was reportedly always/almost always/usually offered to people who inject drugs (84% in 2007, 87% in 2013). Significant improvements in the offer of testing were reported in patients with abnormal LFTs (41% in 2007, 65% in 2013, P<.001) and who had received medical/dental treatment in high prevalence countries (14% in 2007, 24% in 2013, P=.001). In 2013, 25% of respondents had undertaken HCV-related continued professional development. This group was significantly more likely to actively seek out risk factors (P=.009) but only significantly more likely to offer a test to patients who had received medical/dental treatment in high prevalence countries (P=.001). Our findings suggest that government-led awareness raising campaigns have limited impact on general practitioners' testing practices. If the majority of the HCV-infected population are to be diagnosed, practitioner-based or physician-centred interventions should be considered alongside educational initiatives targeted at professionals.

Prognosis of 1169 hepatitis C chronically infected patients with decompensated cirrhosis in the predirect-acting antiviral era.

At a population level, little is known regarding the risk of liver- and nonliver-related mortality and hospitalization and the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients with decompensated cirrhosis (DC). This large-scale national record-linkage study estimates these outcomes following first hospital admission for DC. Record-linkages between national HCV diagnosis and clinical databases and the national inpatient hospital episode database and mortality register were conducted to follow-up the disease course of all identified HCV-diagnosed and chronically infected persons. The study population consisted of 1169 HCV chronically infected persons who had a first hospital admission for DC within the period 1994-2013. We observed an overall average annual percentage change of 12.6% in new DC patients (from 63 in 1994-1999 to 541 in 2009-2013), with no evidence for any improvement in the relative risks of liver-related or all-cause death over time. Between 1 January 1994 and 31 May 2014, 722 and 95 DC patients had died of a liver- and a nonliver-related cause, respectively, and 106 patients had a subsequent first admission for HCC. The 5-year cumulative incidence of liver-related mortality, nonliver-related mortality and first subsequent HCC admission was 61.3%, 8.2% and 8.8%, respectively. The health burden in HCV-infected patients associated with development of decompensated cirrhosis has increased dramatically over the last 20 years. Our findings establish the baseline mortality and HCC progression rates in DC patients against which the impact of new antiviral therapies can be measured.

Identifying former injecting drug users infected with hepatitis C: an evaluation of a general practice-based case-finding intervention.

BACKGROUND: In Scotland, a general practice-based case-finding initiative, to diagnose and refer hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronically infected former injecting drug users (IDUs), was evaluated. METHODS: Testing was offered in eight Glasgow general practices in areas of high deprivation and high HCV and IDU prevalence to attendees aged 30-54 years with a history of IDU. Test uptake and diagnosis rates were compared with those in eight demographically similar control practices. RESULTS: Of 422 eligible intervention practice attendees, 218 (52%) were offered an HCV test and, of these, 121 (56%) accepted. Poor venous access in 13 individuals prevented testing. Of 105 tested, 70% (74/105) were antibody positive of which 58% (43/74) were RNA positive by PCR. Of 43 chronically infected individuals identified in intervention practices, 22 (51%) had attended specialist care within 30 months of the study, while 9 (21%) had defaulted. In control practices, 8 (22%) of 36 individuals tested were antibody positive. Test uptake and case yield were approximately 3 and 10 times higher in intervention compared with control practices, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Targeted case-finding in primary care demonstrated higher test uptake and diagnosis rates; however, to optimize diagnosis and referral of chronically infected individuals, alternative means of testing (e.g. dried blood spots) and retention in specialist care (e.g. outreach services) must be explored.

Hepatitis B prevention, diagnosis, treatment and care: a review.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The likelihood of developing CHB is related to the age at which infection is acquired; the risk being lowest in adults and >90% in neonates whose mothers are hepatitis B e antigen positive. Treatment of CHB infection aims to clear HBV DNA and prevent the development of complications. There are currently seven drugs available for the treatment of CHB: five nucleos(t)ide analogues and two interferon-based therapies. Long-term treatment is often required, and the decision to treat is based on clinical assessment including the phase of CHB infection and the presence and extent of liver damage. A safe and effective HBV vaccine has been available since the early 1980s. Vaccination plays a central role in HBV prevention strategies worldwide, and a decline in the incidence and prevalence of HBV infection following the introduction of universal HBV vaccination programmes has been observed in many countries including the USA and parts of South East Asia and Europe. Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with HBV vaccine +/- hepatitis B immunoglobulin is highly effective in preventing mother to child transmission and in preventing transmission following sharps injuries, sexual contact and other exposures to infected blood and body fluids. Transmission of HBV in the health care setting has become an increasingly rare event in developed nations. However, it remains a significant risk in developing countries reflecting the higher prevalence of CHB, limited access to HBV vaccination and PEP and a lack of adherence to standard infection control precautions.

Evaluation of a general practice based hepatitis C virus screening intervention.

BACKGROUND: In 2003 an estimated 37,500 of Scotland's population was chronically infected with HCV; 44% were undiagnosed former injecting drug users (IDU)--a priority group for antiviral therapy. AIM: To evaluate a hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening intervention. DESIGN: Outcome measures among two similar General Practice populations in an area of high HCV and drug use prevalence, one of which was exposed to an HCV screening intervention, were compared. METHODS: Thirty to fifty four year old attendees of the intervention practice were opportunistically offered testing and counselling, where clinically appropriate, (November 2003-April 2004). OUTCOMES: HCV test uptake, case detection, referral and treatment administration rates. RESULTS: Of 584 eligible attendees, 421 (72%) were offered and 117 (28%) accepted testing in the intervention practice; no testing was undertaken in the comparison practice. Prevalences of HCV antibody were 13% (15/117), 75% (3/4) and 91% (10/11) among all tested persons, current IDUs and former IDUs respectively. For 4/15 (27%) evidence of binge drinking following the receipt of their positive result, was available. Of the 11 referred to specialist care because they were HCV RNA positive, nine attended at least one appointment. Two received treatment: one had achieved a sustained viral response as of February 2008. CONCLUSION: While non targeted HCV screening in the general practice setting can detect infected former IDU, the low diagnostic yield among non IDUs limited the effectiveness of the intervention. A more targeted approach for identifying former IDUs is recommended. Additionally, the low uptake of treatment among chronically infected persons four years after diagnosis demonstrates the difficulties in clinically managing such individuals. Strategies, including support for those with a history of problem alcohol use, to improve treatment uptake are required.

A record-linkage study of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in persons with hepatitis C infection in Scotland.

We investigated trends in first-time hospital admissions and deaths attributable to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a large population-based cohort of 22 073 individuals diagnosed with hepatitis C viral (HCV) infection through laboratory testing in Scotland in 1991-2006. We identified new cases of HCC through record-linkage to the national inpatient hospital discharge database and deaths registry. A total of 172 persons diagnosed with HCV were admitted to hospital or died with first-time mention of HCC. Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence increased between 1996 and 2006 (average annual change of 6.1, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.9-11.6%, P=0.021). The adjusted relative risk of HCC was greater for males (hazard ratio=2.7, 95% CI: 1.7-4.2), for those aged 60 years or older (hazard ratio=2.7, 95% CI: 1.9-4.1) compared with 50-59 years, and for those with a previous alcohol-related hospital admission (hazard ratio=2.5, 95% CI: 1.7-3.7). The risk of individuals diagnosed with HCV developing HCC was greatly increased compared with the general Scottish population (standardised incidence ratio=127, 95% CI: 102-156). Owing to the advancing age of the Scottish HCV-diagnosed population, the annual number of HCC cases is projected to increase, with a consequent increasing burden on the public healthcare system.

Comparison of deaths related to Hepatitis C and AIDS in Scotland.

In resource-rich countries, the incidence of and mortality from AIDS has fallen dramatically since the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy. In contrast, developed countries have observed increases in the public health burden associated with the hepatitis C virus (HCV). We compared past and current trends in mortality related to HCV sequelae and HIV/AIDS in Scotland by linking death records with national databases of persons diagnosed with HCV and HIV/AIDS. AIDS-related deaths increased rapidly during the late-1980s to mid-1990s and declined dramatically after 1996. Deaths related to HCV (i.e., viral hepatitis, liver cancer, alcoholic liver disease, or non-alcoholic liver disease) surpassed the number of AIDS-related deaths in 1998 and increased at an average annual rate of 10.5% (95% confidence interval = 7-14%) during 1996-2005. The leading underlying cause of HCV-related deaths was alcoholic liver disease (50% of deaths during 2001-2005). This study highlights the increasing public health burden, vis-à-vis mortality, of HCV, when compared with HIV/AIDS in developed countries. Increased diagnosis and treatment of eligible HCV-infected individuals will be required if we wish to mitigate the future impact of HCV morbidity and mortality.

Hepatitis C: What lies ahead and can we afford it?

Hepatitis C is a chronic disease with a slow and variable progression over 20-50 years and it is an important public health problem for the 21st century. This paper describes the information required to estimate what lies ahead in terms of morbidity, mortality and the implications for the health service in Scotland and summarises work undertaken in other countries. There will be an increasing number of people with severe liver disease in the next 10-20 years and we need to invest now in primary prevention and effective treatment strategies to reduce the burden of disease in the future.

Hepatitis C virus among childbearing women in Scotland: prevalence, deprivation, and diagnosis.

OBJECTIVES: (A) To examine the prevalence and demographic characteristics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among childbearing women in Scotland; and (B) to determine the extent of maternal HCV infection diagnosed prior to birth. METHODS: (A) Residual dried blood spot samples from routine neonatal screening, collected throughout Scotland during March-October 2000, were unlinked from identifiers and tested anonymously for HCV antibodies; and (B) electronic record linkage of Scotland's databases of births and diagnosed HCV infections was performed. RESULTS: (A) Of 30,259 samples, 121 were enzyme linked immunosorbent assay repeat reactive and 88 of these were confirmed as anti-HCV positive in the recombinant immunoblot assay, representing a seroprevalence of 0.29-0.40%. HCV seroprevalence was high among 25-29 year olds (0.4-0.57%), in high deprivation areas (0.92-1.07%), and in Greater Glasgow (0.83-0.96%) and Grampian (0.38-0.62%). Adjusted relative risk for HCV infection was highest among residents in high deprivation areas of Glasgow (7.2 (95% confidence interval 2.0-25.5)). (B) Of 121 HCV infections found among women at delivery, 24% and 46% were estimated to have been diagnosed prior to pregnancy and birth, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: HCV prevalence among Scottish childbearing women is consistent with that expected from injecting drug use. Based on reported rates of mother to child transmission, 8-11 paediatric infections are expected per annum. Diagnosis in only 24% of infected women prior to pregnancy indicates the extent to which HCV goes unrecognised in the injecting community. The current HCV screening approach-to test only those with a history of injecting drug use (or other risk factors for infection)-identifies approximately a quarter of previously undetected infections among pregnant women.

Projecting severe sequelae of injection-related hepatitis C virus epidemic in the UK. Part 1: Critical hepatitis C and injector data.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C is transmitted by transfusion of unscreened blood, through injecting drugs, from mother-to-child and, on occasion, sexually. Transmission generally requires that the infector is hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA positive, a 'carrier'. About three-quarters of injectors who are hepatitis C antibody positive are HCV-RNA positive and so infectious to others. Incubation periods from HCV infection to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma are even longer than from HIV infection to AIDS, being counted in decades; they depend on age, gender, alcohol consumption and co-infection with other viruses. We identify 25 data sources that are available, or required, for projecting the severe sequelae of the injection-related hepatitis C epidemic. DATA SOURCES: Three data sources relate to hepatitis C diagnosis: register of confirmed HCV infections (with initial of first name + soundex of surname + date of birth + gender = master index, exposure category, year of starting to inject, and region); surveys of HCV test-uptake by injectors and others; documentation of pregnancy and its outcome in HCV-infected women (injectors and others). Four data sources relate to HCV prevalence and incidence among injectors and others: anonymous testing for HCV antibodies in blood or saliva (for sentinel groups ranging from new blood donors, pregnant women, patients awaiting kidney transplantation, non-injector prisoners, health-care workers, non-injector heterosexuals attending genitourinary medicine clinics; to injectors in the community, at drug treatment centres or in prison); historical data on HCV prevalence in injectors; HCV incidence studies in injectors; and uptake of harm reduction measures--frequency of sharing and methadone substitution--by injectors. Key reporting problems in HCV incidence studies, which inhibit checks on the convenient exponential assumption for time from start of injecting to hepatitis C infection, are discussed. Nine critical data sources are identified for monitoring the late sequelae of hepatitis C carriage, its investigation and treatment: linkage surveillance, for example by master index, to identify deaths, hospitalisations or cancer registrations among confirmed HCV infections; surveys of HCV status among patients who undergo liver biopsy, are newly diagnosed with cirrhosis or are newly diagnosed with liver cancer; surveys of liver-biopsy rate in HCV-infected injectors and others; uptake and outcome of interferon + ribavirin in the treatment of hepatitis C carriers; cohort studies of HCV progression; sample surveys of genotype in HCV-infected injectors, and others; acute hepatitis B infections and uptake of hepatitis B immunisation by injectors; liver transplantation in HCV-infected patients; and hepatitis C-status and other risk factors in deaths from cirrhosis or liver cancer, to determine whether they are HCV and injector-related. Finally, nine critical data sources are identified for quantitative understanding of the underlying injector epidemic: drug misuse databases plus capture-recapture methods to assess number of injectors, drug-related deaths by region to assess injector numbers; number of HIV-infected injectors; HIV progression in injectors; overdose and other causes of death in injectors; expert opinion on injector incidence historically, plus survey information on age-distribution at initiation and duration of injector careers; injector incidence historically inferred from hepatitis C infected blood donors; age-distribution of current injectors and at initiation, as a check on the assumptions made in stochastic simulation about injector incidence and 'outcidence' from injecting historically; mortality of former injectors; and general population or other survey ratios of surviving ever-injectors to injectors in the last 5 years, last year and currently, as a check on simulations. RECOMMENDATIONS: We recommend a common HCV diagnosis report form to improve ascertainment of risk-factor information, especially year of starting to inject--which is a key date epidemiologically. We also recommend updated surveys of current and former injectors' HCV-test uptake, or a denominator study that registers master index and risk factor information for all HCV testees. We recommend that injector surveys ask about typical frequency of needle sharing per 4 weeks in three distinct periods this year, last year and in the first year of injecting. We also recommend the location of stored historical samples from injectors to be tested retrospectively and anonymously for HCV antibodies. We recommend immediate attention to the uptake of, and response to, combination treatment by hepatitis C carriers who are former or recovering injectors. We rec

Projecting severe sequelae of injection-related hepatitis C virus epidemic in the UK. Part 2: Preliminary UK estimates of prevalent injection-related hepatitis C carriers, and derivation of progression rates to liver cirrhosis by gender and age at hepatitis C virus infection.

BACKGROUND: In Part 2, we illustrate how available data can be used to obtain preliminary estimates for Scotland of prevalent injection-related hepatitis C carriers and of maternally hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected infants. Novel approaches to reducing uncertainty about the number of Scotland's HCV infected children of injector parents are discussed in brief. Three approaches, one direct and two indirect, to estimating the number of current and ever-injectors are presented for England and Wales. METHODS: Diagnosed HCV infections in injectors and HCV test uptake by current injectors are combined with survey estimates for the ratio of ever-injectors to current injectors to estimate prevalent injection-related hepatitis C carriers. Household surveys give direct but potentially biased estimates of the number of current and ever-injectors. Indirect estimates make use of hepatitis C diagnoses in injectors, HCV prevalence and test-uptake by injectors, or exploit international comparisons. We comment on key reporting problems that inhibit synthesis of HCV progression studies; and suggest how to derive preliminary gender-and-age specific progression rates to liver cirrhosis for use in projections. RESULTS: Preliminary estimates for Scotland of prevalent injection-related hepatitis C carriers are: central estimate 39,000, inner uncertainty 16,000-59,000; of maternally hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected infants central estimate 260, uncertainty 110-1100; and for England and Wales estimates of the number of prevalent ever-injectors are central estimate 360,000, uncertainty 240,000-835,000. Both hepatitis C prevalence in injectors and estimated numbers of current injectors are similar in Australia, and England and Wales (but not so for Scotland), Australian work on projections of severe HCV sequelae from hepatitis C infections may therefore be a suitable starting point for projections for England and Wales. Australia anticipates a doubling in the number of persons living with hepatitis C cirrhosis from 8500 in 1997 to over 17,000 in 2010. DISCUSSION: Australian projections of severe HCV sequelae used progression rates that, for simplicity, were independent of gender and of age at HCV infection. Faster HCV progression for males, and their higher injector prevalence, means that the impact of HCV infection on, for example, liver cancer may be evident to a greater extent and earlier in males.

Completing the molecular investigation into the HIV outbreak at Glenochil prison.

In a molecular investigation into the outbreak of HIV in Glenochil during the first 6 months of 1993, we previously demonstrated that 13 out of the 14 HIV positive inmates were infected with a virtually identical strain, and discounted 2 others as potential sources. Here we investigate a further 8 potential contacts and 4 potential sources which were identified in the companion paper. We were able to examine viral sequence from all but one of these 12 and results have revealed them to be distinct both from each other and the original 14. Thus, despite an intensive follow-up investigation, we have been unable to identify any further HIV infections that might have been part of the 1993 outbreak. It is possible that persons who were infected at that time remain undetected; however this and the companion report strongly suggest that if this were the case the likely numbers would be few.

Predicting survival in AIDS: refining the model.

We tested the validity of a previously-published AIDS staging system by examining AIDS-defining diseases (ADDs) and CD4 counts as prognostic factors for survival of the 248 AIDS patients in the Edinburgh City Hospital Cohort, of whom 56% were injecting drug-users (IDUs). Cox regression was used to model the proportionality of risk of death as the CD4 count declined and more ADDs were experienced, and dependence upon post-AIDS treatment. Using the system of Mocroft et al. (Lancet 1995; 346:12-17) to grade severity, our data were well enough modelled, but we suggest: (i) regrading of HIV dementia (RR 3.9, 95% CI 2.5-6.0), mainly attributed to the drug users, to a very severe ADD; (ii) reduction in risk from zidovudine (RR 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-1.0) during AIDS follow-up for patients starting treatment at or after AIDS diagnosis; (iii) improved management of first mild ADDs (from 1987-89 to 1994-95: 40% reduction in IDUs appearing with mild index diseases, and an approximate three-fold reduction in risk associated with a mild ADD). This study supports previous findings on the significance of ADDs and lowest CD4 count in predicting the lifetime of AIDS patients.