Development and external validation of the DOAT and DOATS scores: simple decision support tools to identify disease progression among nonelderly patients with mild/moderate COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: During the fifth wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Japan, which took place between June and September 2021, a significant number of COVID-19 cases with deterioration occurred in unvaccinated individuals < 65 years old. However, the risk factors for COVID-19 deterioration in this specific population have not yet been determined. This study developed a prediction method to identify COVID-19 patients < 65 years old who are at a high risk of deterioration. METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed data from 1,675 patients < 65 years old who were admitted to acute care institutions in Fukushima with mild-to-moderate-1 COVID-19 based on the Japanese disease severity criteria prior to the fifth wave. For validation, 324 similar patients were enrolled from 3 hospitals in Yamagata. Logistic regression analyses using cluster-robust variance estimation were used to determine predictors of disease deterioration, followed by creation of risk prediction scores. Disease deterioration was defined as the initiation of medication for COVID-19, oxygen inhalation, or mechanical ventilation starting one day or later after admission. RESULTS: The patients whose condition deteriorated (8.6%) tended to be older, male, have histories of smoking, and have high body temperatures, low oxygen saturation values, and comorbidities, such as diabetes/obesity and hypertension. Stepwise variable selection using logistic regression to predict COVID-19 deterioration retained comorbidities of diabetes/obesity (DO), age (A), body temperature (T), and oxygen saturation (S). Two predictive scores were created based on the optimism-corrected regression coefficients: the DOATS score, including all of the above risk factors, and the DOAT score, which was the DOATS score without oxygen saturation. In the original cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs) of the DOATS and DOAT scores were 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.85) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84), respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUROCs for each score were both 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.83), and the calibration slopes were both 0.80. A decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical practicability of both scores in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We established two prediction scores that can quickly evaluate the risk of COVID-19 deterioration in mild/moderate patients < 65 years old.

Vesnarinone represses the fibrotic changes in murine lung injury induced by bleomycin.

We investigated the potential usefulness of vesnarinone, a novel cytokine inhibitor, for the treatment of lung fibrosis using a murine model of bleomycin (BLM)-induced pulmonary fibrosis. Mice were fed a control diet (n=42), or a diet containing low (n=42) or high (n=42) dose of vesnarinone. Dietary intake of vesnarinone minimized the BLM toxicity as reflected by significant decreases in numbers of inflammatory cells, KC, and soluble TNF receptors in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid. A quantitative evaluation of histology demonstrated significantly mild lung parenchymal lesions in BLM-treated mice fed with diet containing high dose of vesnarinone than in the control diet group. Consistent with the histopathology, hydroxyproline levels in lung tissue from BLM-treated mice fed with diet containing vesnarinone were significantly lower than that from mice fed with control diet. We concluded that vesnarinone inhibits BLM-induced pulmonary fibrosis, at least in part, by the inhibition of acute lung injuries in the early phase.

Randomized phase II trial comparing amrubicin with topotecan in patients with previously treated small-cell lung cancer: North Japan Lung Cancer Study Group Trial 0402.

PURPOSE: Amrubicin, a new anthracycline agent, and topotecan are both active for previously treated small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). No comparative study of these agents has been reported. This randomized phase II study was conducted to select amrubicin or topotecan for future evaluation. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with SCLC previously treated with platinum-containing chemotherapy were randomly assigned to receive amrubicin (40 mg/m(2) on days 1 through 3) or topotecan (1.0 mg/m(2) on days 1 through 5). Patients were stratified by Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (0, 1, or 2) and type of relapse (chemotherapy sensitive or refractory). The primary end point was overall response rate (ORR), and secondary end points were progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival, and toxicity profile. RESULTS: From February 2004 to July 2007, 60 patients were enrolled, and 59 patients (36 patients with sensitive and 23 patients with refractory relapse) were assessable for efficacy and safety evaluation. Neutropenia was severe, and one treatment-related death owing to infection was observed in the amrubicin arm. ORRs were 38% (95% CI, 20% to 56%) for the amrubicin arm and 13% (95% CI, 1% to 25%) for the topotecan arm. In sensitive relapse, ORRs were 53% for the amrubicin arm and 21% for the topotecan arm. In refractory relapse, ORRs were 17% for the amrubicin arm and 0% for the topotecan arm. Median PFS was 3.5 months for patients in the amrubicin arm and 2.2 months for patients in the topotecan arm. Multivariate analysis revealed that amrubicin has more influence than topotecan on overall survival. CONCLUSION: Amrubicin may be superior to topotecan with acceptable toxicity for previously treated patients with SCLC. Further evaluation of amrubicin for relapsed SCLC is warranted.