Liver fibrosis quantified by image morphometry predicts clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Liver fibrosis predicts adverse clinical outcomes, such as liver-related death (LRD) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to investigate the accuracy of semi-automated quantification of collagen proportionate area (CPA) as an objective new method for predicting clinical outcomes. METHOD: Liver biopsies from patients with NAFLD underwent computerized image morphometry of Sirius Red staining with CPA quantification performed by ImageScope. Clinical outcomes, including total mortality, LRD, and combined liver outcomes (liver decompensation, HCC, or LRD), were determined by medical records and population-based data-linkage. The accuracy of CPA for predicting outcomes was compared with non-invasive fibrosis tests (Hepascore, FIB-4, APRI). RESULTS: A total of 295 patients (mean age 50 years) were followed for a median (range) of 9 (0.2-25) years totalling 3253 person-years. Patients with CPA ≥ 10% had significantly higher risks for total death [hazard ratio (HR): 5.0 (1.9-13.2)], LRD [19.0 (2.0-182.0)], and combined liver outcomes [15.6 (3.1-78.6)]. CPA and pathologist fibrosis staging (FS) showed similar accuracy (AUROC) for the prediction of total death (0.68 vs. 0.70), LRD (0.72 vs. 0.77) and combined liver outcomes (0.75 vs. 0.78). Non-invasive serum markers Hepascore, APRI, and FIB-4 reached higher AUROC; however, they were not statistically significant compared to that of CPA except for Hepascore in predicting total mortality (0.86 vs. 0.68, p = 0.009). CONCLUSION: Liver fibrosis quantified by CPA analysis was significantly associated with clinical outcomes including total mortality, LRD, and HCC. CPA achieved similar accuracy in predicting outcomes compared to pathologist fibrosis staging and non-invasive serum markers.

Comparative Accuracy of Clinical Fibrosis Markers, Hepascore and Fibroscan® to Detect Advanced Fibrosis in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND: Non-invasive tests are widely used to diagnose fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), however, the optimal method remains unclear. We compared the accuracy of simple serum models, a serum model incorporating direct measures of fibrogenesis (Hepascore), and Fibroscan®, for detecting fibrosis in NAFLD. METHODS: NAFLD patients undergoing liver biopsy were evaluated with Hepascore, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), FIB-4 and AST-platelet ratio index (APRI), with a subset (n = 131) undergoing Fibroscan®. Fibrosis on liver biopsy was categorized as advanced (F3-4) or cirrhosis (F4). Accuracy was determined by area under receiving operating characteristic curves (AUC). Indeterminate ranges were calculated using published cut-offs. RESULTS: In 271 NAFLD patients, 83 (31%) had F3-4 and 47 (17%) cirrhosis. 6/131 (4%) had an unreliable Fibroscan®. For the detection of advanced fibrosis, the accuracy of Hepascore (AUC 0.88) was higher than FIB-4 (0.73), NFS (0.72) and APRI (0.69) (p < 0.001 for all). Hepascore had similar accuracy to Fibroscan® (0.80) overall, but higher accuracy in obese individuals (0.91 vs 0.80, p = 0.001). Hepascore more accurately identified patients with cirrhosis than APRI (AUC 0.85 vs 0.71, p = 0.01) and NFS (AUC 0.73, p = 0.01) but performed similar to FIB-4 and Fibroscan®. For the determination of F3-4, the proportion of patients in indeterminate area was lower for Hepascore (4.8%), compared to FIB-4 (42%), NFS (36%) and APRI (44%) (p < 0.001 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Hepascore has greater accuracy and a lower indeterminate range than simple serum fibrosis tests for advanced fibrosis in NAFLD, and greater accuracy than Fibroscan® in obese individuals.

Predicting liver-related events in NAFLD: A predictive model.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Management of NAFLD involves noninvasive prediction of fibrosis, which is a surrogate for patient outcomes. We aimed to develop and validate a model predictive of liver-related events (LREs) of decompensation and/or HCC and compare its accuracy with fibrosis models. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Patients with NAFLD from Australia and Spain who were followed for up to 28 years formed derivation (n = 584) and validation (n = 477) cohorts. Competing risk regression and information criteria were used for model development. Accuracy was compared with fibrosis models using time-dependent AUC analysis. During follow-up, LREs occurred in 52 (9%) and 11 (2.3%) patients in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, type 2 diabetes, albumin, bilirubin, platelet count, and international normalized ratio were independent predictors of LRE and were combined into a model [NAFLD outcomes score (NOS)]. The NOS model calibrated well [calibration slope, 0.99 (derivation), 0.98 (validation)] with excellent overall performance [integrated Brier score, 0.07 (derivation) and 0.01 (validation)]. A cutoff ≥1.3 identified subjects at a higher risk of LRE, (sub-HR 24.6, p < 0.001, 5-year cumulative incidence 38% vs 1.0%, respectively). The predictive accuracy at 5 and 10 years was excellent in both derivation (time-dependent AUC,0.92 and 0.90, respectively) and validation cohorts (time-dependent AUC,0.80 and 0.82, respectively). The NOS was more accurate than the fibrosis-4 or NAFLD fibrosis score for predicting LREs at 5 and 10 years ( p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The NOS model consists of readily available measures and has greater accuracy in predicting outcomes in patients with NAFLD than existing fibrosis models.

Subset-specific Retention of Donor Myeloid Cells After Major Histocompatibility Complex-matched and Mismatched Liver Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: During solid organ transplantation, donor leukocytes, including myeloid cells, are transferred within the organ to the recipient. Both tolerogenic and alloreactive roles have been attributed to donor myeloid cells; however, their subset-specific retention posttransplantation has not been investigated in detail. METHODS: Major histocompatibility complex (MHC)-matched and mismatched liver transplants were performed in mice, and the fate of donor and recipient myeloid cells was assessed. RESULTS: Following MHC-matched transplantation, a proportion of donor myeloid cells was retained in the graft, whereas others egressed and persisted in the blood, spleen, and bone marrow but not the lymph nodes. In contrast, after MHC-mismatched transplantation, all donor myeloid cells, except Kupffer cells, were depleted. This depletion was caused by recipient T and B cells because all donor myeloid subsets were retained in MHC-mismatched grafts when recipients lacked T and B cells. Recipient myeloid cells rapidly infiltrated MHC-matched and, to a greater extent, MHC-mismatched liver grafts. MHC-mismatched grafts underwent a transient rejection episode on day 7, coinciding with a transition in macrophages to a regulatory phenotype, after which rejection resolved. CONCLUSIONS: Phenotypic and kinetic differences in the myeloid cell responses between MHC-matched and mismatched grafts were identified. A detailed understanding of the dynamics of immune responses to transplantation is critical to improving graft outcomes.

Monitoring quality of care in hepatocellular carcinoma: A modified Delphi consensus.

Although there are several established international guidelines on the management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), there is limited information detailing specific indicators of good quality care. The aim of this study was to develop a core set of quality indicators (QIs) to underpin the management of HCC. We undertook a modified, two-round, Delphi consensus study comprising a working group and experts involved in the management of HCC as well as consumer representatives. QIs were derived from an extensive review of the literature. The role of the participants was to identify the most important and measurable QIs for inclusion in an HCC clinical quality registry. From an initial 94 QIs, 40 were proposed to the participants. Of these, 23 QIs ultimately met the inclusion criteria and were included in the final set. This included (a) nine related to the initial diagnosis and staging, including timing to diagnosis, required baseline clinical and laboratory assessments, prior surveillance for HCC, diagnostic imaging and pathology, tumor staging, and multidisciplinary care; (b) thirteen related to treatment and management, including role of antiviral therapy, timing to treatment, localized ablation and locoregional therapy, surgery, transplantation, systemic therapy, method of response assessment, and supportive care; and (c) one outcome assessment related to surgical mortality. Conclusion: We identified a core set of nationally agreed measurable QIs for the diagnosis, staging, and management of HCC. The adherence to these best practice QIs may lead to system-level improvement in quality of care and, ultimately, improvement in patient outcomes, including survival.

Expansion of Liver Transplantation Criteria for Hepatocellular Carcinoma from Milan to UCSF in Australia and New Zealand and Justification for Metroticket 2.0.

Background: Expansion in liver transplantation (LT) criteria for HCC from Milan to UCSF has not adversely impacted overall survival, prompting further expansion towards Metroticket 2.0 (MT2). In this study, we compared patient survival post-transplant before and after 2007 and long-term outcomes for LT within Milan versus UCSF criteria (to determine the true benefit of the expansion of criteria) and retrospectively validated the MT2 criteria. Methods: Retrospective analysis of ANZLITR (including all patients transplanted for HCC since July 1997). The entire cohort was divided based on criteria used at the time of listing, namely, Milan era (1997−2006) and the UCSF era (2007−July 2015). Results: The overall 5- and 10-year cumulative survival rates for the entire cohort of 691 patients were 78% and 69%, respectively. Patients transplanted in UCSF era had significantly higher 5- and 10-year survival rates than in the Milan era (80% vs. 73% and 72% vs. 65%, respectively; p = 0.016). In the UCSF era, the 5-year survival rate for patients transplanted within Milan criteria was significantly better than those transplanted outside Milan but within UCSF criteria (83% vs. 73%; p < 0.024). Patients transplanted within the MT2 criteria had a significantly better 5- and 10-year survival rate as compared to those outside the criteria (81% vs. 64% and 73% vs. 50%, respectively; p = 0.001). Conclusion: Overall survival following LT for HCC has significantly improved over time despite expanding criteria from Milan to UCSF. Patients fulfilling the MT2 criteria have a survival comparable to the UCSF cohort. Thus, expansion of criteria to MT2 is justifiable.

Serum Fibrosis Tests Guide Prognosis in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fatty Liver Disease Patients Referred From Primary Care.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is managed predominately in primary care, however, there is uncertainty regarding how to best identify patients for specialist referral. We examined the accuracy of noninvasive tests as screening tools for the prediction of outcomes in MAFLD patients referred from primary care. METHODS: Patients with MAFLD referred by primary care for specialist review to Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital (cohort 1, n = 626) or tertiary centers within Western Australia (cohort 2, n = 246) were examined. Hepascore, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio, Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score performed at baseline were examined for their accuracy in predicting liver-related death (LRD), decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Outcomes were collected from hospital records and data linkage. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 5.0 years (range, 0.1-13.0 y) and 3.8 years (range, 0.1-10.0 y) in cohorts 1 and 2, respectively. In both cohorts, Hepascore and FIB-4 had the highest area under the curve for the prediction of LRD (0.90-0.95 and 0.83-0.94, respectively), decompensation (0.86-0.91 and 0.86-0.87, respectively), and hepatocellular carcinoma (0.75-0.90 and 0.67-0.85, respectively). The sensitivity and negative predictive values were high (>90%) for Hepascore (cut-off value, 0.60), FIB-4 (cut-off value, 1.30), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (cut-off value, -1.455) for all outcomes in cohort 1, and for predicting LRD in cohort 2. Hepascore had the highest specificity, classified the greatest proportion of patients as low risk, and was favored by decision curve analysis as providing the greatest net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Serum noninvasive tests accurately stratify risk of liver-related outcomes in MAFLD patients and can be used as a screening tool for patients referred for specialist review by primary care.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Serum Biomarker Test for Risk-Stratified Liver Ultrasound Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: Risk-stratified ultrasound screening for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), informed by a serum biomarker test, enables resources to be targeted to patients at the highest risk of developing cancer. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified screening for HCC in the Australian healthcare system. METHODS: A Markov cohort model was constructed to test 3 scenarios for patients with compensated cirrhosis: (1) risk-stratified screening for high-risk patients, (2) all-inclusive screening, and (3) no formal screening. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to determine the impact of uncertainty. Scenario analyses were used to assess cost-effectiveness in Australia's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and to determine the impact of including productivity-related costs of mortality. RESULTS: Both risk-stratified screening and all-inclusive screening programs were cost-effective compared with no formal screening, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of A$39 045 and A$23 090 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), respectively. All-inclusive screening had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A$4453 compared with risk-stratified screening and had the highest probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of A$50 000 per QALY. Risk-stratified screening had the highest likelihood of cost-effectiveness when the WTP was between A$25 000 and A$35 000 per QALY. Cost-effectiveness results were further strengthened when applied to an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cohort and when productivity costs were included. CONCLUSIONS: Cirrhosis population-wide screening for HCC is likely to be cost-effective in Australia. Risk-stratified screening using a serum biomarker test may be cost-effective at lower WTP thresholds.

ABIDE: An Accurate Predictive Model of Liver Decompensation in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver-Related Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an increasingly important cause of liver cirrhosis and subsequent complications. We retrospectively developed and validated a model to predict hepatic decompensation in patients with NAFLD and cirrhosis and compared this with currently available models. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Baseline variables from an international cohort of 299 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD with compensated cirrhosis were examined to construct a model using competing risk multivariate regression and Akaike/Bayesian information criteria. Validation was performed in 244 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD cirrhosis from the United States. Prognostic accuracy was compared with the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI)-FIB-4 score using time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC) analysis. During a median follow-up of 5.6 years (range 2.4-14.1) and 5.4 years (range 1.5-13.8), hepatic decompensation occurred in 81 and 132 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the derivation cohort, independent predictors of hepatic decompensation (Aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, Bilirubin, International normalized ratio, type 2 Diabetes, and Esophageal varices) were combined into the ABIDE model. Patients with a score ≥4.1 compared with those with a score <4.1 had a higher risk of decompensation (subhazard ratio, 6.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0-11.2; P < 0.001), a greater 5-year cumulative incidence (37% vs. 6%, P < 0.001), and shorter mean duration to decompensation (3.8 vs 6.7 years, P < 0.001). The accuracy of the ABIDE model at 5 years was good in the derivation (tAUC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73-0.84) and validation cohorts (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.81) and was significantly more accurate than the NFS (0.72), FIB-4 (0.74), MELD (0.69), CTP (0.72), and ALBI-FIB-4 (0.73) (all P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with NAFLD and compensated cirrhosis, ABIDE, a predictive model of routine clinical measures, predicts future hepatic decompensation.

Hepascore predicts liver outcomes and all-cause mortality in long-term methotrexate users: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Methotrexate (MTX) is routinely used for immunological disorders, and its long-term use is associated with hepatotoxicity. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a serum liver fibrosis test (Hepascore) predicted the risk of adverse liver-related outcomes and mortality. METHODS: A total of 92 patients in Western Australia who had a long-term MTX intake history,from 2004 to 2016, were recruited and followed up from the first Hepascore to death or end of the study. Clinical data, all deaths, and liver-related outcomes (liver-related death and decompensation) were obtained from hospital, PathWest, and WA Data Linkage Unit databases. RESULTS: Nine deaths and four adverse liver-related outcomes occurred during the follow up of 354 person-years. The 5-year survival was 86.1%. The liver-related outcome free survival was 95.6%. Baseline Hepascore ≥0.84 was associated with advanced fibrosis on liver biopsy (P = 0.025). A baseline Hepascore ≥0.84 was significantly associated with higher risks for adverse liver-related outcomes (P < 0.001) and all-cause mortality (P = 0.001). Cox regression demonstrated that only baseline Hepascore ≥0.84 was independently associated with the increased risk of all-cause mortality (7.91 [1.52-41.29], P = 0.014). Moreover, any Hepascore ≥0.84 found during follow up was independently associated with the increased risk of all-cause mortality (86.18 [4.03-1844.83], P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the potential importance of Hepascore monitoring in long-term MTX users. Patients with a Hepascore higher than 0.84 at any stage had increased mortality, but further studies are required to confirm this finding.

Pathogenesis of Viral Hepatitis-Induced Chronic Liver Disease: Role of Extracellular Vesicles.

Extracellular vesicles are encapsulated lipid nanoparticles secreted by a variety of cell types in living organisms. They are known to carry proteins, metabolites, nucleic acids, and lipids as their cargoes and are important mediators of intercellular communication. The role of extracellular vesicles in chronic liver disease has been reported. Chronic liver disease such as viral hepatitis accounts for a significant mortality and morbidity burden worldwide. Hepatic fibrosis has been commonly associated with the chronic form of viral hepatitis, which results in end-stage liver disease, including cirrhosis, liver failure, and carcinoma in some patients. In this review, we discuss the potential role of extracellular vesicles in mediating communication between infectious agents (hepatitis B and C viruses) and host cells, and how these complex cell-cell interactions may facilitate the development of chronic liver disease. We will further discuss how understanding their biological mechanism of action might be beneficial for developing therapeutic strategies to treat chronic liver disease.

Outcomes for children after second liver transplantations are similar to those after first transplantations: a binational registry analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess long term graft and patient survival after donor liver retransplantation in children in Australia and New Zealand during 1986-2017; to determine the factors that influence survival. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis (registry data). SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry data for all liver retransplantations in children (under 18 years of age), 1986-2017, in all four paediatric and six adult liver transplantation centres in the two countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Graft and patient survival at one, 5, 10 and 15 years. RESULTS: 142 liver retransplantations were undertaken in children (59 during 1986-2000, 83 during 2001-2017). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicated that survival was significantly greater during 2001-2017 than 1986-2000 (P < 0.001). During 2001-2017, graft survival one year after retransplantation was 84%, at 5 years 75%, at 10 years 70%, and at 15 years 54%; patient survival was 89% at one year, 87% at 5 years, 87% at 10 years, and 71% at 15 years. Median time between transplantations was 0.2 years (IQR, 0.03-1.4 years) during 1986-2000, and 1.8 years (IQR, 0.1-6.8 years) during 2001-2017 (P = 0.002). The proportion of graft failures that involved split grafts was larger during 2001-2017 (35 of 83, 42%) than 1986-2000 (10 of 59, 17%). Graft type, cause of graft failure, and number of transplants did not influence survival following retransplantation. CONCLUSION: Survival for children following retransplantation is excellent. Graft survival is similar for split and whole grafts. Children on the liver waiting list requiring retransplantation should have the same access to donor grafts as children requiring a first transplant.

Changes in the Epidemiology of Hepatobiliary Disease Complicating Type 2 Diabetes over 25 Years: The Fremantle Diabetes Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the incidence/outcome of hepatobiliary disease (HBD) has increased over recent decades in community-based Australians with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: Longitudinal data from the Fremantle Diabetes Study Phase I (FDS1; recruitment 1993-1996; n = 1291 with T2D) and Phase II (FDS2; 2008-2011; n = 1509) were analyzed. Participants with T2D from both Phases were age-, sex-, and postcode-matched 1:4 to people without diabetes. Incident HBD and associated mortality were ascertained from hospitalization, cancer registration, and/or death certification codes. Incidence rates (IRs) and IR ratios (IRRs) for those with versus without diabetes in FDS1 and FDS2 were calculated. RESULTS: HBD IRs for people without diabetes did not change between Phases. The IRR (95% CI) for people with T2D in FDS2 versus FDS1 was 1.30 (1.01-1.68) with the highest IRRs in participants aged <65 years. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease/steatohepatitis (NAFLD/NASH) events were 54% greater in FDS2 than FDS1 in the presence of greater abdominal adiposity. NAFLD/NASH was coded in one in 11 HBD events in FDS2 and in 10% of HBD deaths (<4% of total mortality). CONCLUSIONS: HBD is more frequent in people with versus without T2D and this discrepancy is increasing. Hospitalizations/deaths due to NAFLD/NASH remain uncommon.

Bile acids associate with specific gut microbiota, low-level alcohol consumption and liver fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Bile acids (BAs) are synthesized by the liver and modified by gut bacteria, and may play an intermediary role between the gut microbiome and liver in promoting fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We investigated the associations between serum and faecal BAs, gut microbiome and fibrosis in patients with and without NAFLD and examined the impact of diet and alcohol consumption on these relationships. METHODS: Adult patients (n = 122) underwent liver biopsy and BAs characterization by high-performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry. Gut microbiome composition was analysed using next-generation 16S rRNA sequencing. Diet and alcohol intake were determined by 3-day food diary. RESULTS: Serum and faecal BA concentrations increased progressively among non-NAFLD controls (n = 55), NAFLD patients with no/mild fibrosis (F0-2, n = 58) and NAFLD with advanced fibrosis (F3/4, n = 9). Progressive increases in serum BAs were driven by primary conjugated BAs including glycocholic acid [GCA] and secondary conjugated BAs. In contrast, faecal BA increase was driven by secondary unconjugated BAs (predominately deoxycholic acid [DCA]). Serum GCA levels and faecal DCA levels correlated with the abundance of Bacteroidaceae and Lachnospiraceae, and stool secondary BAs with an unclassifiable family of the order Bacteroidales (Bacteroidales;other). These bacterial taxa were also associated with advanced fibrosis. Modest alcohol consumption was positively correlated with faecal DCA levels and relative abundance of Lachnospiracaea and Bacteroidales;other. CONCLUSIONS: Higher serum and faecal BA levels are associated with advanced fibrosis in NAFLD. Specific gut bacteria link alterations in BA profiles and advanced fibrosis, and may be influenced by low-level alcohol consumption.

The MAAPE score in intermediate and advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with Yttrium-90 resin microsphere radioembolization.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Yttrium-90 resin microsphere radioembolization (RE) is not recommended for routine use in intermediate or advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by recent guidelines. This study aims to establish pre-treatment variables which predict survival in HCC patients treated with RE to identify those who will benefit most from it, and to inform patient selection for future trials. METHODS: Single center, retrospective study of consecutive patients with HCC treated with RE from 2007 to 2018. Patients included if undergoing their first RE treatment for intermediate or advanced HCC; a Child-Pugh score of B7 or less; and a performance status of 1 or less. Multivariable Cox regression identified variables that were significantly associated with survival. A predictive score was developed based upon coefficients from the fitted Cox regression model, and cubic spline regression was used to identify prognostic groups. RESULTS: One hundred thirteen patients with intermediate (53.1%) and advanced HCC (45.1%) followed for a median of 13.2 months were included. Variables associated with superior survival used to derive the MAAPE score were lower Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (≤ 7), lower Alpha-fetoprotein (≤ 150 IU/L), higher serum Albumin (> 37 g/L), absence of Portal vein tumor thrombus, and better performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group = 0). Three survival prognostic groups were identified: good (median overall survival 25.0 months), average (15.3 months), and poor (6.3 months) (overall log-rank test, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The MAAPE score accurately identifies HCC patients in whom RE is safe and effective. This will allow for optimal patient selection for future trials of RE versus systemic therapy.

Long-term Liver-related Outcomes of Patients With Chronic Liver Diseases in Australia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic liver disease is a major health burden that produces significant liver-related morbidity and mortality. We aimed to evaluate liver-related outcomes of patients with different causes of chronic liver disease in Australia. METHODS: We collected data from 10,933 patients with chronic liver disease assessed by Hepascore (a serum fibrosis model) in Western Australia from 2004 through 2015. We obtained records of liver-related death, transplantation, decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma from WA Data Linkage Unit databases. Competing risk analysis was used to calculate the cumulative risk of each clinical endpoint, and risks for clinical endpoints were compared among all causes of chronic liver disease. RESULTS: In our final cohort for analysis, 5566 patients had hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, 1989 had HBV infection, 119 were infected with HBV and HCV, 955 had alcohol-associated liver disease, 1597 had non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), 123 had alcohol-associated liver disease and metabolic risk factors, 561 had autoimmune liver disease without overlap syndrome, and 23 autoimmune overlap syndrome. Significant differences among chronic liver diseases were observed in risk of all-cause death (P < .001), liver-related death (P < .001), liver transplantation (P < .001), and decompensation (P < .001) but not hepatocellular carcinoma (P=.095). Patients with alcohol-associated liver disease had the highest 5-year cumulative risk of liver-related death (17.1%) and the second-highest 5-year cumulative risk of decompensation (29.2%). Multivariate analysis found patients with alcohol-associated liver disease had significantly higher risks of liver-related death and decompensation than patients with HCV infection with hazard ratios (HRs) of 2.39 (95% CI, 1.88-3.03) and 3.42 (95% CI, 2.74-4.27), respectively. Patients with NAFLD had a significantly lower risk of liver related death and decompensation than patients with HCV infection, with HRs of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.48-0.95) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.52-0.94) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of patients in Western Australia, we found patients with alcohol-associated liver disease to have significantly higher risk of decompensation and liver-related death than patients with HCV infection, whereas patients with NAFLD have significantly lower risks of either outcome.

Baseline and Post-treatment 18F-Fluorocholine PET/CT Predicts Outcomes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Locoregional Therapy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: 18F-fluorocholine positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FCH PET/CT) is an emerging functional imaging technique in the diagnosis and management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to assess the ability of a pre- and post-treatment 18F-FCH PET/CT to predict prognosis and treatment response in early-stage HCC. METHODS: Patients with early- or intermediate-stage HCC planned for locoregional therapy were prospectively enrolled. Baseline demographic and tumor information was collected and baseline and post-treatment 18F-FCH PET/CT performed. Maximum standardized uptake values (SUVmax) were determined for each HCC lesion, and the difference between baseline and post-treatment SUVmax values were compared with progression-free survival outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 29 patients with 39 confirmed HCC lesions were enrolled from a single clinical center. Patients were mostly men (89.7%) with hepatitis C or alcohol-related cirrhosis (65.5%) and early-stage disease (89.7%). Per-patient and per-lesion sensitivity of 18F-FCH PET/CT was 72.4% and 59.0%, respectively. A baseline SUVmax < 13 was associated with a superior median progression-free survival compared with an SUVmax of > 13 (17.7 vs. 5.1 months; p = 0.006). A > 45% decrease in SUVmax between baseline and post-treatment 18F-FCH PET/CT ("responders") was associated with a superior mean progression-free survival than a percentage decrease of < 45% ("non-responders," 36.1 vs. 11.6 months; p = 0.034). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline and post-treatment 18F-FCH PET/CT predicts outcomes in early-stage HCC undergoing locoregional therapy. This technique may identify patients with an objective response post-locoregional therapy who would benefit from further therapy.