Cost effectiveness analysis of a fixed dose combination pill for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease from an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to impart a large burden on the global population, especially in lower income countries where affordability limits the use of cardiovascular medicines. A fixed dose combination strategy of at least 2 blood pressure lowering medications and a statin with aspirin in a single pill has been shown to reduce the risk of incident CVD by 38% in primary prevention in a recent meta-analysis. We report the in-trial (median follow-up: 5 years) cost-effectiveness of a fixed dose combination (FDC) pill in different income groups based on data from that meta-analysis. Methods: Countries were categorized using World Bank economic groups: Lower Middle Income Countries (LMIC), Upper Middle Income Countries (UMIC) and High Income Countries (HIC). Country specific costs were obtained for hospitalized events, procedures, and non-study medications (2020 USD). FDC price was based on the cheapest equivalent substitute (CES) for each component. Findings: For the CES-FDC pill versus control the difference in cost was $346 (95% CI: $294-$398) per participant in Lower Middle Income Countries, $838 (95% CI: $781-$895) in Upper Middle Income Countries and $42 (95% CI: -$155 to $239) (cost-neutral) in High Income Countries. During the study period the CES-FDC pill was associated with incremental gain in quality-adjusted life years of 0.06 (95% CI: 0.04-0.08) resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $5767 (95% CI: 5735-$5799), $13,937 (95% CI: $13,893-$14,041) and $700 (95% CI: $662-$738) respectively. In subgroups analyses, the highest 10 years CVD risk subgroup had ICERs of $2033, $7322 and -$6000/QALY. Interpretation: A FDC pill produced at CES costs is cost-neutral in HIC. Governments of LMI and UMI countries should assess these results based on the ICER threshold accepted in their own country and own specific health care priorities but should consider prioritizing this strategy for patients with high 10 years CVD risk as a first step. Funding: Population Health Research Institute.

Risk score for malignancy in patients with suspicious gallbladder lesions: Retrospective analysis of 175 cases.

BACKGROUND: Among cancers, carcinoma gallbladder has one of the most dismal prognosis. Early lesions are difficult to biopsy because of proximity to luminal structures and risk of biliary peritonitis. However, early surgery offers the only chance of a complete cure. Utilizing a risk score would allow characterization of the risk of malignancy and early referral to an oncology centre thereby resulting in better outcomes for patients with carcinoma gallbladder. METHODS: The aim of this study was to develop a risk score for carcinoma in patients with suspicious gallbladder lesions based on clinical presentation and imaging. All patients with suspicious gallbladder lesions on radiological imaging who underwent surgery were analyzed. Patients were considered for scoring if the ultrasound showed the gallbladder wall thickening (more than 4 mm) and computed tomography scan showed operable disease. Statistical analysis was done to derive a score for malignancy. RESULTS: Total 175 patients underwent an operation for suspicious gallbladder lesions from January 2005 to December 2014. The factors analyzed were clinical biochemical and imaging findings. Of these, 71 were benign on the final histopathology and 104 were malignant. The score was constructed with the following variables: female sex, high total bilirubin (≥ 1 mg/dL), presence of a mass, focal location of the lesion, presence of gallbladder stones and nodal involvement in the hepatoduodenal region on imaging. A model score and modified score were obtained. In this modified score, score of more than 8 out of 20 predicted malignancy with a sensitivity of 78% and specificity of 70.4%. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve constructed with these variables had an area under curve of 0.828. There was no statistically significant difference between the model score and the modified score. CONCLUSIONS: A pre-operative risk score was obtained for carcinoma gallbladder, which needs to be validated prospectively in future.

Survival outcomes of postchemotherapy retroperitoneal lymph node dissection for nonseminomatous germ cell tumors: A retrospective cohort study from a single tertiary center in South India.

Introduction: Chemotherapy, postchemotherapy retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (pcRPLND), and metastasectomy remain the standard of care for the management of advanced nonseminomatous germ cell tumor (NSGCT). Methods: We retrospectively studied 73 patients who had pcRPLND at a single tertiary-care center (2003-2022). Surgical and clinicopathological features and oncological outcomes are presented. Results: The mean age was 28.27 years (15-48). Three-fourths had Stage III disease at diagnosis. International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group risk stratification was 54.54% and 21.21% in intermediate risk, and poor risk, respectively. Sixty-two patients had Standard, 7 had Salvage and 4 underwent Desperation pcRPLND. Eleven patients (15.06%) required adjunctive procedures. Thirteen patients (17.8%) had ≥ class 3 Clavien-Dindo complications and postoperative mortality occurred in 5 (6.8%) patients. The histopathologies (HPE) of the pcRPLNDs were necrosis, teratoma, and viable tumor in 39.7%, 45.2%, and 15.1%, respectively. Seven patients underwent metastasectomy. An 85% size reduction in the size of RPLN predicted necrosis. There was 71.4% concordance between pcRPLND and metastasectomy HPEs. The median follow-up was 26.72 months (inter-quartile range - 13.25-47.84). The 2-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) rate was 93% (95% confidence interval [CI]-83%-97%) and the overall survival (OS) rate was 90% (95% CI-80%-95%). This is the largest series of pcRPLND for NSGCT in India to our knowledge. Conclusion: Although most of the cohort belonged to stage III, an RFS and OS rate of >90% at 2 years was achieved. We believe that successful management of postchemotherapy residual masses in NSGCT is contingent on the availability of multidisciplinary expertise and is therefore best done at tertiary-care referral centers.

Curative Resection for Metastatic Solid Pseudopapillary Neoplasm of Pancreas-a Case Series.

Solid pseudopapillary neoplasm (SPN) is an unusual tumor of the pancreas. Unlike ductal adenocarcinoma, SPN is commoner in young women and is indolent with better prognosis. Fifteen percent of patients, however, develop metastases, often synchronous and involving the liver or peritoneum. Owing to the paucity of cases, management of the metastatic disease is not clearly defined. Retrospective review of case notes of patients treated between 2006 and 2019. There were 53 patients with SPN of which 4 had hepatic metastases-3 synchronous and 1 metachronous. Two patients underwent simultaneous distal pancreatectomy and splenectomy with liver resection (right posterior sectionectomy and metastasectomy). One required right hepatectomy with metastasectomy for metachronous liver metastases. The other underwent a staged operation-remnant tumor excision with metastasectomy followed by right hepatectomy after portal vein embolization. All four patients are recurrence free on median follow-up of 38.5 months. In view of the excellent prognosis, we recommend radical resection of both the primary lesion and metastases for SPN.

Frailty and outcomes in heart failure patients from high-, middle-, and low-income countries.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is little information on the incremental prognostic importance of frailty beyond conventional prognostic variables in heart failure (HF) populations from different country income levels. METHODS: A total of 3429 adults with HF (age 61 ± 14 years, 33% women) from 27 high-, middle- and low-income countries were prospectively studied. Baseline frailty was evaluated by the Fried index, incorporating handgrip strength, gait speed, physical activity, unintended weight loss, and self-reported exhaustion. Mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 39 ± 14% and 26% had New York Heart Association Class III/IV symptoms. Participants were followed for a median (25th to 75th percentile) of 3.1 (2.0-4.3) years. Cox proportional hazard models for death and HF hospitalization adjusted for country income level; age; sex; education; HF aetiology; left ventricular ejection fraction; diabetes; tobacco and alcohol use; New York Heart Association functional class; HF medication use; blood pressure; and haemoglobin, sodium, and creatinine concentrations were performed. The incremental discriminatory value of frailty over and above the MAGGIC risk score was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: At baseline, 18% of participants were robust, 61% pre-frail, and 21% frail. During follow-up, 565 (16%) participants died and 471 (14%) were hospitalized for HF. Respective adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for death among the pre-frail and frail were 1.59 (1.12-2.26) and 2.92 (1.99-4.27). Respective adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for HF hospitalization were 1.32 (0.93-1.87) and 1.97 (1.33-2.91). Findings were consistent among different country income levels and by most subgroups. Adding frailty to the MAGGIC risk score improved the discrimination of future death and HF hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty confers substantial incremental prognostic information to prognostic variables for predicting death and HF hospitalization. The relationship between frailty and these outcomes is consistent across countries at all income levels.

Effects of a Polypill, Aspirin, and the Combination of Both on Cognitive and Functional Outcomes: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Vascular risk factors are associated with cognitive decline but studies addressing individual risk factors have not demonstrated an effect of risk factor management on the preservation of cognition. Few trials have examined the effect of vascular risk factor management on function. Objective: To determine if a polypill could reduce cognitive and functional decline in people with risk factors but without manifest cardiovascular disease. Design, Setting, and Participants: The International Polycap Study 3 (TIPS-3) was a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial randomized clinical trial. Hospital and community-based centers in 8 countries recruited and followed up participants between July 30, 2012, and September 30, 2020. A total of 5713 individuals were randomly assigned to treatment groups, and 2098 people 65 years or older at intermediate risk of cardiovascular disease completed a cognitive assessment and were included in the analyses. Interventions: Polypill (antihypertensives and a statin), aspirin, or a combination of both treatments. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cognitive and functional assessments completed at baseline, 2 years, and study end. The primary outcome was the effect of a polypill compared with placebo and a polypill plus aspirin compared with double placebo on the composite outcome of the proportion of participants in each group who experienced a substantive decrease (>1.5 SD change) in cognitive or functional abilities. Results: Of the 2389 study participants older than 65 years, a total of 2098 (88%; mean [SD] age, 70.1 [4.5] years; 1266 female individuals [60%]) completed the baseline and follow-up assessment. A total of 1796 participants (86%) had hypertension, and 680 participants (32%) had impaired fasting plasma glucose levels. Mean (SD) baseline systolic blood pressure was 146.1 (17.7) mm Hg, and mean (SD) low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level was 124.3 (40.7) mg/dL and decreased by 5.7 mm Hg and 24 mg/dL, respectively, among those assigned to the polypill group. During a 5-year follow-up, there were no significant differences between treatment groups in the number of participants who experienced substantive cognitive decline (356 assigned polypill, 328 assigned placebo) or dementia (2 assigned polypill, 4 assigned placebo). Functional decline was reduced during follow-up for those assigned to polypill compared with placebo (mean [SD] country-standardized adjusted follow-up Standard Assessment of Global Everyday Activities [SAGEA] scores, 0.06 [0.03] vs 0.15 [0.03]; P = .01) and polypill plus aspirin compared with double placebo (mean [SD] country-standardized adjusted follow-up SAGEA scores, 0.01 [0.04] vs 0.14 [0.04]; P = .01). Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial of patients 65 years or older with vascular risk factors, a polypill, with or without aspirin, was not associated with reduced cognitive outcomes but was associated with reduced functional decline.

Post cholecystectomy benign biliary stricture-isolated hepatic duct stricture: a proposed modification of the BISMUTH classification.

BACKGROUND: Post-cholecystectomy, benign biliary strictures are challenging for both patients and surgeons. Bismuth classified benign biliary strictures into 5 types. This study aimed to review these isolated hepatic duct strictures which were not included in Bismuth classification. METHODS: The case records of all patients who presented with post-cholecystectomy benign biliary strictures between January 2005 and December 2020 at our centre were reviewed. Data regarding demography, type of stricture, and treatment strategy were entered into the standard proforma. RESULTS: There were 242 patients [type I-3.7%, type II-41.7%, type III-38.0%, type IV-6.6%, and type V-7.8%]. Five (2.1%) patients did not fit the Bismuth classification and were the focus of this study. In each of these patients, an isolated hepatic duct stricture (first-or second-order hepatic duct) was present, with no involvement of the common hepatic duct or hilar confluence. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of isolated hepatic duct stricture [type VI] to the Bismuth classification will enhance the original classification, help in reporting and management of this sub-set of patients.

Modifiable risk factors associated with cardiovascular disease and mortality in China: a PURE substudy.

AIMS: To examine the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in China and in key subpopulations, and to estimate the population-level risks attributable to 12 common modifiable risk factors for each outcome. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this prospective cohort of 47 262 middle-aged participants from 115 urban and rural communities in 12 provinces of China, it was examined how CVD incidence and mortality rates varied by sex, by urban-rural area, and by region. In participants without prior CVD, population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for CVD and for death related to 12 common modifiable risk factors were assessed: four metabolic risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, abdominal obesity, and lipids), four behavioural risk factors (tobacco, alcohol, diet quality, and physical activity), education, depression, grip strength, and household air pollution. The mean age of the cohort was 51.1 years. 58.2% were female, 49.2% were from urban areas, and 59.6% were from the eastern region of China. The median follow-up duration was 11.9 years. The CVD was the leading cause of death in China (36%). The rates of CVD and death were 8.35 and 5.33 per 1000 person-years, respectively, with higher rates in men compared with women and in rural compared with urban areas. Death rates were higher in the central and western regions of China compared with the eastern region. The modifiable risk factors studied collectively contributed to 59% of the PAF for CVD and 56% of the PAF for death in China. Metabolic risk factors accounted for the largest proportion of CVD (PAF of 41.7%), and hypertension was the most important risk factor (25.0%), followed by low education (10.2%), high non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (7.8%), and abdominal obesity (6.9%). The largest risk factors for death were hypertension (10.8%), low education (10.5%), poor diet (8.3%), tobacco use (7.5%), and household air pollution (6.1%). CONCLUSION: Both CVD and mortality are higher in men compared with women, and in rural compared with urban areas. Large reductions in CVD could potentially be achieved by controlling metabolic risk factors and improving education. Lowering mortality rates will require strategies addressing a broader range of risk factors.

Cardiovascular disease, mortality, and their associations with modifiable risk factors in a multi-national South Asia cohort: a PURE substudy.

AIM: To examine the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), of death, and the comparative effects of 12 common modifiable risk factors for both outcomes in South Asia. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective study of 33 583 individuals 35-70 years of age from India, Bangladesh, or Pakistan. Mean follow-up period was 11 years. Age and sex adjusted incidence of a CVD event and mortality rates were calculated for the overall cohort, by urban or rural location, by sex, and by country. For each outcome, mutually adjusted population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated in 32 611 individuals without prior CVD to compare risks associated with four metabolic risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, abdominal obesity, high non-HDL cholesterol), four behavioural risk factors (tobacco use, alcohol use, diet quality, physical activity), education, household air pollution, strength, and depression. Hazard ratios were calculated using Cox regression models, and average PAFs were calculated for each risk factor or groups of risk factors. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of death (35.5%) in South Asia. Rural areas had a higher incidence of CVD (5.41 vs. 4.73 per 1000 person-years) and a higher mortality rate (10.27 vs. 6.56 per 1000 person-years) compared with urban areas. Males had a higher incidence of CVD (6.42 vs. 3.91 per 1000 person-years) and a higher mortality rate (10.66 vs. 6.85 per 1000 person-years) compared with females. Between countries, CVD incidence was highest in Bangladesh, while the mortality rate was highest in Pakistan. The modifiable risk factors studied contributed to approximately 64% of the PAF for CVD and 69% of the PAF for death. Largest PAFs for CVD were attributable to hypertension (13.1%), high non-HDL cholesterol (11.1%), diabetes (8.9%), low education (7.7%), abdominal obesity (6.9%), and household air pollution (6.1%). Largest PAFs for death were attributable to low education (18.9%), low strength (14.6%), poor diet (6.4%), diabetes (5.8%), tobacco use (5.8%), and hypertension (5.5%). CONCLUSION: In South Asia, both CVD and deaths are highest in rural areas and among men. Reducing CVD and premature mortality in the region will require investment in policies that target a broad range of health determinants.

Risk factors, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in South America: a PURE substudy.

AIMS: In a multinational South American cohort, we examined variations in CVD incidence and mortality rates between subpopulations stratified by country, by sex and by urban or rural location. We also examined the contributions of 12 modifiable risk factors to CVD development and to death. METHODS AND RESULTS: This prospective cohort study included 24 718 participants from 51 urban and 49 rural communities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. The mean follow-up was 10.3 years. The incidence of CVD and mortality rates were calculated for the overall cohort and in subpopulations. Hazard ratios and population attributable fractions (PAFs) for CVD and for death were examined for 12 common modifiable risk factors, grouped as metabolic (hypertension, diabetes, abdominal obesity, and high non-HDL cholesterol), behavioural (tobacco, alcohol, diet quality, and physical activity), and others (education, household air pollution, strength, and depression). Leading causes of death were CVD (31.1%), cancer (30.6%), and respiratory diseases (8.6%). The incidence of CVD (per 1000 person-years) only modestly varied between countries, with the highest incidence in Brazil (3.86) and the lowest in Argentina (3.07). There was a greater variation in mortality rates (per 1000 person-years) between countries, with the highest in Argentina (5.98) and the lowest in Chile (4.07). Men had a higher incidence of CVD (4.48 vs. 2.60 per 1000 person-years) and a higher mortality rate (6.33 vs. 3.96 per 1000 person-years) compared with women. Deaths were higher in rural compared to urban areas. Approximately 72% of the PAF for CVD and 69% of the PAF for deaths were attributable to 12 modifiable risk factors. For CVD, largest PAFs were due to hypertension (18.7%), abdominal obesity (15.4%), tobacco use (13.5%), low strength (5.6%), and diabetes (5.3%). For death, the largest PAFs were from tobacco use (14.4%), hypertension (12.0%), low education (10.5%), abdominal obesity (9.7%), and diabetes (5.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular disease, cancer, and respiratory diseases account for over two-thirds of deaths in South America. Men have consistently higher CVD and mortality rates than women. A large proportion of CVD and premature deaths could be averted by controlling metabolic risk factors and tobacco use, which are common leading risk factors for both outcomes in the region.

The cost implications of a polypill for primary prevention in the TIPS-3 trial.

AIMS: The International Polycap Study 3 (TIPS-3) trial demonstrated that a polypill containing cholesterol- and multiple blood-pressure-lowering drugs reduces cardiovascular events by 20% compared with placebo in people without cardiovascular disease. The polypill plus aspirin led to a 31% relative risk reduction in cardiovascular disease events compared with double placebo. We report regional variations in costs and affordability of a polypill based on the TIPS-3 trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: Countries were categorized using World Bank economic groups: lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, and high-income countries. Country-specific costs were obtained for hospitalization events, procedures, and non-study medications (2019 US dollars). Polypill price was based on the cheapest equivalent substitute (CES) for each component. For the polypill vs. placebo, the difference in cost over the 4.6 years of the trial was $291 [95% confidence interval (CI): $243-339] per participant in lower-middle-income countries, $1068 (95% CI: $992-1144) in upper-middle-income countries, and $48 (95% CI: -$271 to $367) in high-income countries. Results were similar for the polypill plus aspirin vs. a double placebo. In both cases, the polypill was affordable in all groups using monthly household capacity to pay or a threshold of 4% of the gross national income per capita. CONCLUSION: The use of a polypill (CES) in TIPS-3 increases costs in lower-middle-income countries and upper-middle-income countries but is affordable in countries at various economic levels and is cost neutral (dominant) in high-income countries.

Rosuvastatin for the prevention of venous thromboembolism: a pooled analysis of the HOPE-3 and JUPITER randomized controlled trials.

AIMS: To examine the association between rosuvastatin and VTE risk, and whether effects vary in different subpopulations stratified by key demographic, cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, and other risk factors associated with VTE. METHODS AND RESULTS: An individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted across two randomized controlled trials in 30 507 participants over a mean follow-up of 3.62 years, individuals had no prior history of vascular disease but were at intermediate CV risk. In both trials, participants were randomized to receive rosuvastatin or matching placebo. The primary outcome was VTE during follow-up, defined as either deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. Associations between rosuvastatin and VTE were examined in the overall pooled cohort, and subpopulations stratified by demographic risk factors (i.e. age and sex), CVD risk factors (i.e. obesity, smoking, lipid levels, blood pressure levels, and C-reactive protein level), and a history of cancer. Mean age was 65.96 (SD 7.19) years of age, and 17 832 (58.45%) were male and 5434 (17.82%) were smokers, median BMI was 27.6 [interquartile range (IQR) 24.7-31.1] kg/m2, and median CRP level was 3.4 (IQR 2.1-6.0) mg/L. There were 139 VTE events. In the pooled cohort, rosuvastatin was associated with a large proportional reduction in the risk of VTE (hazard ratio 0.53, 95% CI 0.37-0.75). No significant interactions were observed between treatment with rosuvastatin and the risk of VTE across subpopulations stratified by demographic, CVD risk factors, or a history of cancer (P-values for interactions >0.05 for all subgroups). CONCLUSION: Rosuvastatin is associated with a 47% proportional reduction in the risk of VTE, and its effect is consistent both in the presence or absence of VTE-related clinical risk factors.

Optimising a couples-focused intervention to increase couples' HIV testing and counselling using the person-based approach: a qualitative study in Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: This qualitative study explored how to optimise a couples-focused intervention to promote couples HIV testing and counselling (CHTC). SETTING: Community setting in Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa. PARTICIPANTS: Qualitative interviews were conducted with 20 couples who had participated in a couples-focused intervention and five staff members delivering the intervention. Partners were interviewed individually by researchers of the same gender. INTERVENTION: A couples-focused intervention comprised of two group sessions and four couples counselling sessions was previously shown to significantly increase uptake to CHTC in Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa. However, more than half of couples participating in the intervention still chose not to test together during follow-up. ANALYSIS: The transcripts were analysed using the table of changes from the person-based approach. Proposed optimisations were discussed with a community group to ensure the intervention was as persuasive and acceptable as possible. RESULTS: Many couples found it challenging to discuss CHTC with their partner due to an implied lack of trust. Optimisations to the intervention were identified to increase readiness to discuss CHTC, including education about serodiscordance, discussions about CHTC by peer mentors and open discussion of personal barriers to CHTC during couples' counselling sessions. Additional training for staff in open questioning techniques could help them feel more comfortable to explore couples' perceived barriers to CHTC, rather than advising couples to test. A logic model was developed to show anticipated mechanisms through which the optimised intervention would increase uptake to CHTC, including increasing knowledge, increasing positive outcome beliefs and managing negative emotions. CONCLUSIONS: In-depth qualitative research informed optimisations to a couples-focused intervention for further evaluation in South Africa to encourage uptake to CHTC. Suggestions are made for optimal methods to gain open feedback on intervention experiences where participants may be reluctant to share negative views.

Fixed-dose combination therapies with and without aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In randomised controlled trials, fixed-dose combination treatments (or polypills) have been shown to reduce a composite of cardiovascular disease outcomes in primary prevention. However, whether or not aspirin should be included, effects on specific outcomes, and effects in key subgroups are unknown. METHODS: We did an individual participant data meta-analysis of large randomised controlled trials (each with ≥1000 participants and ≥2 years of follow-up) of a fixed-dose combination treatment strategy versus control in a primary cardiovascular disease prevention population. We included trials that evaluated a fixed-dose combination strategy of at least two blood pressure lowering agents plus a statin (with or without aspirin), compared with a control strategy (either placebo or usual care). The primary outcome was time to first occurrence of a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or arterial revascularisation. Additional outcomes included individual cardiovascular outcomes and death from any cause. Outcomes were also evaluated in groups stratified by the inclusion of aspirin in the fixed-dose treatment strategy, and effect sizes were estimated in prespecified subgroups based on risk factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to compare strategies. FINDINGS: Three large randomised trials were included in the analysis (TIPS-3, HOPE-3, and PolyIran), with a total of 18 162 participants. Mean age was 63·0 years (SD 7·1), and 9038 (49·8%) participants were female. Estimated 10-year cardiovascular disease risk for the population was 17·7% (8·7). During a median follow-up of 5 years, the primary outcome occurred in 276 (3·0%) participants in the fixed-dose combination strategy group compared with 445 (4·9%) in the control group (hazard ratio 0·62, 95% CI 0·53-0·73, p<0·0001). Reductions were also observed for the separate components of the primary outcome: myocardial infarction (0·52, 0·38-0·70), revascularisation (0·54, 0·36-0·80), stroke (0·59, 0·45-0·78), and cardiovascular death (0·65, 0·52-0·81). Significant reductions in the primary outcome and its components were observed in the analyses of fixed-dose combination strategies with and without aspirin, with greater reductions for strategies including aspirin. Treatment effects were similar at different lipid and blood pressure levels, and in the presence or absence of diabetes, smoking, or obesity. Gastrointestinal bleeding was uncommon but slightly more frequent in the fixed-dose combination strategy with aspirin group versus control (19 [0·4%] vs 11 [0·2%], p=0·15). The frequencies of haemorrhagic stroke (10 [0·2%] vs 15 [0·3%]), fatal bleeding (two [<0·1%] vs four [0·1%]), and peptic ulcer disease (32 [0·7%] vs 34 [0·8%]) were low and did not differ significantly between groups. Dizziness was more common with fixed-dose combination treatment (1060 [11·7%] vs 834 [9·2%], p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Fixed-dose combination treatment strategies substantially reduce cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularisation, and cardiovascular death in primary cardiovascular disease prevention. These benefits are consistent irrespective of cardiometabolic risk factors. FUNDING: Population Health Research Institute.

Polypill with or without Aspirin in Persons without Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: A polypill comprising statins, multiple blood-pressure-lowering drugs, and aspirin has been proposed to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Using a 2-by-2-by-2 factorial design, we randomly assigned participants without cardiovascular disease who had an elevated INTERHEART Risk Score to receive a polypill (containing 40 mg of simvastatin, 100 mg of atenolol, 25 mg of hydrochlorothiazide, and 10 mg of ramipril) or placebo daily, aspirin (75 mg) or placebo daily, and vitamin D or placebo monthly. We report here the outcomes for the polypill alone as compared with matching placebo, for aspirin alone as compared with matching placebo, and for the polypill plus aspirin as compared with double placebo. For the polypill-alone and polypill-plus-aspirin comparisons, the primary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, resuscitated cardiac arrest, heart failure, or revascularization. For the aspirin comparison, the primary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: A total of 5713 participants underwent randomization, and the mean follow-up was 4.6 years. The low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level was lower by approximately 19 mg per deciliter and systolic blood pressure was lower by approximately 5.8 mm Hg with the polypill and with combination therapy than with placebo. The primary outcome for the polypill comparison occurred in 126 participants (4.4%) in the polypill group and in 157 (5.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63 to 1.00). The primary outcome for the aspirin comparison occurred in 116 participants (4.1%) in the aspirin group and in 134 (4.7%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.67 to 1.10). The primary outcome for the polypill-plus-aspirin comparison occurred in 59 participants (4.1%) in the combined-treatment group and in 83 (5.8%) in the double-placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.50 to 0.97). The incidence of hypotension or dizziness was higher in groups that received the polypill than in their respective placebo groups. CONCLUSIONS: Combined treatment with a polypill plus aspirin led to a lower incidence of cardiovascular events than did placebo among participants without cardiovascular disease who were at intermediate cardiovascular risk. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and others; TIPS-3 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01646437.).

Role of Cross-sectional Imaging (CT/MRI) in Characterization and Distinguishing Benign from Malignant/Potentially Malignant Cystic Lesions of Pancreas.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to evaluate the accuracy of computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging (CT/MRI) in characterizing cystic lesions of the pancreas and in differentiating between benign and malignant/potentially malignant lesions. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective study was performed on patients with pancreatic cystic lesions who underwent pre-operative imaging and surgery between October 2004 and April 2017 at a tertiary care teaching hospital. The images were reviewed for specific characteristics and diagnoses recorded independently by two radiologists who were blinded to the histopathological examination (HPE) report. Radiological diagnostic accuracy was assessed with HPE as reference standard. RESULTS: A total of 80 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria (M: F = 27:53). The final HPE diagnoses were solid pseudopapillary neoplasm (32.5%), walled off necrosis/pseudocyst (27.5%), mucinous cystadenoma (15%), serous cystadenoma (11.25%), intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (8.75%), mucinous cystadenocarcinoma (2.5%), simple epithelial cyst (1.25%), and unspecified benign cystic lesion (1.25%). Observer1 correctly identified the diagnosis in 73.75% of cases while observer 2 did so in 72.5%. Sensitivity for distinguishing benign versus malignant/potentially malignant lesions was 85.1% for observer 1 and 80.9% for observer 2. On multivariate logistic regression analysis: Solid cystic morphology, presence of mural nodule, and female gender were associated with premalignant/malignant lesions. CONCLUSION: Cross-sectional imaging is a valuable tool for characterization of pancreatic cystic lesions within its limitations.

Characteristics and outcomes of atrial fibrillation in patients without traditional risk factors: an RE-LY AF registry analysis.

AIMS: Data on patient characteristics, prevalence, and outcomes of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients without traditional risk factors, often labelled 'lone AF', are sparse. METHODS AND RESULTS: The RE-LY AF registry included 15 400 individuals who presented to emergency departments with AF in 47 countries. This analysis focused on patients without traditional risk factors, including age ≥60 years, hypertension, coronary artery disease, heart failure, left ventricular hypertrophy, congenital heart disease, pulmonary disease, valve heart disease, hyperthyroidism, and prior cardiac surgery. Patients without traditional risk factors were compared with age- and region-matched controls with traditional risk factors (1:3 fashion). In 796 (5%) patients, no traditional risk factors were present. However, 98% (779/796) had less-established or borderline risk factors, including borderline hypertension (130-140/80-90 mmHg; 47%), chronic kidney disease (eGFR < 60 mL/min; 57%), obesity (body mass index > 30; 19%), diabetes (5%), excessive alcohol intake (>14 units/week; 4%), and smoking (25%). Compared with patients with traditional risk factors (n = 2388), patients without traditional risk factors were more often men (74% vs. 59%, P < 0.001) had paroxysmal AF (55% vs. 37%, P < 0.001) and less AF persistence after 1 year (21% vs. 49%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, 1-year stroke occurrence rate (0.6% vs. 2.0%, P = 0.013) and heart failure hospitalizations (0.9% vs. 12.5%, P < 0.001) were lower. However, risk of AF-related re-hospitalization was similar (18% vs. 21%, P = 0.09). CONCLUSION: Almost all patients without traditionally defined AF risk factors have less-established or borderline risk factors. These patients have a favourable 1-year prognosis, but risk of AF-related re-hospitalization remains high. Greater emphasis should be placed on recognition and management of less-established or borderline risk factors.

The impact of palliative care on clinical and patient-centred outcomes in patients with advanced heart failure: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials.

AIMS: To examine the impact of palliative care on acute care hospitalizations, survival, symptoms, and quality of life (QOL) in patients with advanced heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a systematic search of publications through CENTRAL, CINAHL, EMBASE, and MEDLINE originally up to July 2017, and then updated to June 2019. The study was registered (PROSPERO ID: CRD42017069685) prior to its initiation. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were included that tested an interdisciplinary palliative care intervention (compared to usual care) primarily in a heart failure population. Main outcomes assessed were hospitalizations, mortality, QOL, and symptom burden. Ten independent RCTs were selected, representing a total of 1050 participants (921 with a diagnosis of heart failure). Compared with usual care, palliative care interventions were associated with a substantial reduction in hospitalizations [odds ratio 0.56 (0.33-0.94); four trials; I2  = 27%], modest improvement in QOL [standardized mean difference (SMD) 0.25; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.06-0.45; seven trials; I2  = 15%], and modest reduction in symptom burden (SMD -0.29; 95% CI -0.54-0.03; three trials; I2  = 15%). There was no clear adverse impact on mortality. Most studies had methodological limitations that increased the risk of biases. CONCLUSION: Compared to usual care, palliative care interventions substantially reduce hospitalizations, with no clear adverse effect on survival. Effects on QOL and symptom burden appear to be modest, and indicate that further efforts to improve these patient centred outcomes are needed.