Latent profiles of global electrical heterogeneity: the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos.

Aims: Despite the highest prevalence of stroke, obesity, and diabetes across races/ethnicities, paradoxically, Hispanic/Latino populations have the lowest prevalence of atrial fibrillation and major Minnesota code-defined ECG abnormalities. We aimed to use Latent Profile Analysis in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) population to obtain insight into epidemiological discrepancies. Methods and results: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of baseline HCHS/SOL visit. Global electrical heterogeneity (GEH) was measured as spatial QRS-T angle (QRSTa), spatial ventricular gradient azimuth (SVGaz), elevation (SVGel), magnitude (SVGmag), and sum absolute QRST integral (SAIQRST). Statistical analysis accounted for the stratified two-stage area probability sample design. We fitted a multivariate latent profile generalized structural equation model adjusted for age, sex, ethnic background, education, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, dyslipidaemia, obesity, chronic kidney disease, physical activity, diet quality, average RR' interval, median beat type, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) to gain insight into the GEH profiles. Among 15 684 participants (age 41 years; 53% females; 6% known CVD), 17% had an increased probability of likely abnormal GEH profile (QRSTa 80 ± 27°, SVGaz -4 ± 21°, SVGel 72 ± 12°, SVGmag 45 ± 12 mVms, and SAIQRST 120 ± 23 mVms). There was a 23% probability for a participant of being in Class 1 with a narrow QRSTa (40.0 ± 10.2°) and large SVG (SVGmag 108.3 ± 22.6 mVms; SAIQRST 203.4 ± 39.1 mVms) and a 60% probability of being in intermediate Class 2. Conclusion: A substantial proportion (17%) in the Hispanic/Latino population had an increased probability of altered, likely abnormal GEH profile, whereas 83% of the population was resilient to harmful risk factors exposures.

Predicting clinically significant prostate cancer following suspicious mpMRI: analyses from a high-volume center.

PURPOSE: mpMRI is routinely used to stratify the risk of clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) in men with elevated PSA values before biopsy. This study aimed to calculate a multivariable risk model incorporating standard risk factors and mpMRI findings for predicting csPCa on subsequent prostate biopsy. METHODS: Data from 677 patients undergoing mpMRI ultrasound fusion biopsy of the prostate at the TUM University Hospital tertiary urological center between 2019 and 2023 were analyzed. Patient age at biopsy (67 (median); 33-88 (range) (years)), PSA (7.2; 0.3-439 (ng/ml)), prostate volume (45; 10-300 (ml)), PSA density (0.15; 0.01-8.4), PI-RADS (V.2.0 protocol) score of index lesion (92.2% ≥3), prior negative biopsy (12.9%), suspicious digital rectal examination (31.2%), biopsy cores taken (12; 2-22), and pathological biopsy outcome were analyzed with multivariable logistic regression for independent associations with the detection of csPCa defined as ISUP ≥ 3 (n = 212 (35.2%)) and ISUP ≥ 2 (n = 459 (67.8%) performed on 603 patients with complete information. RESULTS: Older age (OR: 1.64 for a 10-year increase; p < 0.001), higher PSA density (OR: 1.60 for a doubling; p < 0.001), higher PI-RADS score of the index lesion (OR: 2.35 for an increase of 1; p < 0.001), and a prior negative biopsy (OR: 0.43; p = 0.01) were associated with csPCa. CONCLUSION: mpMRI findings are the dominant predictor for csPCa on follow-up prostate biopsy. However, PSA density, age, and prior negative biopsy history are independent predictors. They must be considered when discussing the individual risk for csPCa following suspicious mpMRI and may help facilitate the further diagnostical approach.

An Accelerated Failure Time Model to Predict Cause-Specific Survival and Prognostic Factors of Lung and Bronchus Cancer Patients with at Least Bone or Brain Metastases: Development and Internal Validation Using a SEER-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: This study addresses the significant challenge of low survival rates in patients with cause-specific lung cancer accompanied by bone or brain metastases. Recognizing the critical need for an effective predictive model, the research aims to establish survival prediction models using both parametric and non-parametric approaches. METHODS: Clinical data from lung cancer patients with at least one bone or brain metastasis between 2000 and 2020 from the SEER database were utilized. Four models were constructed: Cox proportional hazard, Weibull accelerated failure time (AFT), log-normal AFT, and Zografos-Balakrishnan log-normal (ZBLN). Independent prognostic factors for cause-specific survival were identified, and model fit was evaluated using Akaike's and Bayesian information criteria. Internal validation assessed predictive accuracy and discriminability through the Harriel Concordance Index (C-index) and calibration plots. RESULTS: A total of 20,412 patients were included, with 14,290 (70%) as the training cohort and 6122 (30%) validation. Independent prognostic factors selected for the study were age, race, sex, primary tumor site, disease grade, total malignant tumor in situ, metastases, treatment modality, and histology. Among the accelerated failure time (AFT) models considered, the ZBLN distribution exhibited the most robust model fit for the 3- and 5-year survival, as evidenced by the lowest values of Akaike's information criterion of 6322 and 79,396, and the Bayesian information criterion of 63,495 and 79,396, respectively. This outperformed other AFT and Cox models (AIC = [156,891, 211,125]; BIC = [158,848, 211,287]). Regarding predictive accuracy, the ZBLN AFT model achieved the highest concordance C-index (0.682, 0.667), a better performance than the Cox model (0.669, 0.643). The calibration curves of the ZBLN AFT model demonstrated a high degree of concordance between actual and predicted values. All variables considered in this study demonstrated significance at the 0.05 level for the ZBLN AFT model. However, differences emerged in the significant variations in survival times between subgroups. The study revealed that patients with only bone metastases have a higher chance of survival compared to only brain and those with bone and brain metastases. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the underutilized but accurate nature of the accelerated failure time model in predicting lung cancer survival and identifying prognostic factors. These findings have implications for individualized clinical decisions, indicating the potential for screening and professional care of lung cancer patients with at least one bone or brain metastasis in the future.

Merkel cell carcinoma recurrence risk estimation is improved by integrating factors beyond cancer stage: A multivariable model and web-based calculator.

BACKGROUND: Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) recurs in 40% of patients. In addition to stage, factors known to affect recurrence risk include: sex, immunosuppression, unknown primary status, age, site of primary tumor, and time since diagnosis. PURPOSE: Create a multivariable model and web-based calculator to predict MCC recurrence risk more accurately than stage alone. METHODS: Data from 618 patients in a prospective cohort were used in a competing risk regression model to estimate recurrence risk using stage and other factors. RESULTS: In this multivariable model, the most impactful recurrence risk factors were: American Joint Committee on Cancer stage (P < .001), immunosuppression (hazard ratio 2.05; P < .001), male sex (1.59; P = .003) and unknown primary (0.65; P = .064). Compared to stage alone, the model improved prognostic accuracy (concordance index for 2-year risk, 0.66 vs 0.70; P < .001), and modified estimated recurrence risk by up to 4-fold (18% for low-risk stage IIIA vs 78% for high-risk IIIA over 5 years). LIMITATIONS: Lack of an external data set for model validation. CONCLUSION/RELEVANCE: As demonstrated by this multivariable model, accurate recurrence risk prediction requires integration of factors beyond stage. An online calculator based on this model (at merkelcell.org/recur) integrates time since diagnosis and provides new data for optimizing surveillance for MCC patients.

Prospective observational study to validate a next-generation sequencing blood RNA signature to predict early kidney transplant rejection.

The objective of this study was to validate the performance of Tutivia, a peripheral blood gene expression signature, in predicting early acute rejection (AR) post-kidney transplant. Recipients of living or deceased donor kidney transplants were enrolled in a nonrandomized, prospective, global, and observational study (NCT04727788). The main outcome was validation of the area under the curve (AUC) of Tutivia vs serum creatinine at biopsy alone, or Tutivia + serum creatinine at biopsy. Of the 151 kidney transplant recipients, the mean cohort age was 53 years old, and 64% were male. There were 71% (107/151) surveillance/protocol biopsies and 29% (44/151) for-cause biopsies, with a 31% (47/151) overall rejection rate. Tutivia (AUC 0.69 [95% CI: 0.59-0.77]) and AUC of Tutivia + creatinine at biopsy (0.68 [95% CI: 0.59-0.77]) were greater than the AUC of creatinine at biopsy alone (0.51.4 [95% CI: 0.43-0.60]). Applying a model cut-off of 50 (scale 0-100) generated a high- and low-risk category for AR with a negative predictive value of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86), a positive predictive value of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.45-0.74), and an odds ratio of 5.74 (95% CI: 2.63-12.54). Tutivia represents a validated noninvasive approach for clinicians to accurately predict early AR, beyond the current standard of care.

Image-guided superficial radiation therapy has superior 2-year recurrence probability to Mohs micrographic surgery.

Introduction: Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSCs) are the most common cancers in the USA, and their incidence is rising. Mohs micrographic surgery (MMS) is commonly performed to excise NMSCs. MMS replaced superficial radiotherapy (SRT) as a first line treatment, given its superior efficacy. Image-guided superficial radiation therapy (IGSRT) was invented to improve the precision of SRT. This study investigates how the 2-year recurrence probability of IGSRT-treated NMSCs compares to that of MMS-treated lesions. Methods: This retrospective cohort study compared the 2-year recurrence probability of early stage NMSCs (squamous and basal cell carcinomas (SCCs and BCCs)) treated by IGSRT (2,286 lesions) to data on NMSCs treated by MMS (5,391 lesions) via one sample proportion tests. Medical Subject Headings were used to search PubMed for reports of 2-year recurrence probability rates of NMSCs treated by MMS. Seventeen studies were screened; 14 studies were excluded for lack of 2-year time to event analysis, or irrelevant patient population (non-BCC/SCC study, advanced disease), leaving 3 studies for comparison. Results: IGSRT-treated NMSCs have a statistically significantly improved 2-year recurrence probability than those treated by MMS, P < 0.001 for pooled data. Conclusion: The 2-year recurrence probability IGSRT-treated NMSCs is superior to MMS-treated and supports IGSRT as an effective treatment option for individuals with early stage NMSCs.

A clinicogenomic model including GARD predicts outcome for radiation treated patients with HPV+ oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

Background: Treatment decision-making in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) includes clinical stage, HPV status, and smoking history. Despite improvements in staging with separation of HPV-positive and -negative OPSCC in AJCC 8th edition (AJCC8), patients are largely treated with a uniform approach, with recent efforts focused on de-intensification in low-risk patients. We have previously shown, in a pooled analysis, that the genomic adjusted radiation dose (GARD) is predictive of radiation treatment benefit and can be used to guide RT dose selection. We hypothesize that GARD can be used to predict overall survival (OS) in HPV-positive OPSCC patients treated with radiotherapy (RT). Methods: Gene expression profiles (Affymetrix Clariom D) were analyzed for 234 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples from HPV-positive OPSCC patients within an international, multi-institutional, prospective/retrospective observational study including patients with AJCC 7th edition stage III-IVb. GARD, a measure of the treatment effect of RT, was calculated for each patient as previously described. In total, 191 patients received primary RT definitive treatment (chemoradiation or RT alone, and 43 patients received post-operative RT. Two RT dose fractionations were utilized for primary RT cases (70 Gy in 35 fractions or 69.96 Gy in 33 fractions). Median RT dose was 70 Gy (range 50.88-74) for primary RT definitive cases and 66 Gy (range 44-70) for post-operative RT cases. The median follow up was 46.2 months (95% CI, 33.5-63.1). Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed with GARD as both a continuous and dichotomous variable and time-dependent ROC analyses compared the performance of GARD with the NRG clinical nomogram for overall survival. Results: Despite uniform radiation dose utilization, GARD showed significant heterogeneity (range 30-110), reflecting the underlying genomic differences in the cohort. On multivariable analysis, each unit increase in GARD was associated with an improvement in OS (HR = 0.951 (0.911, 0.993), p = 0.023) compared to AJCC8 (HR = 1.999 (0.791, 5.047)), p = 0.143). ROC analysis for GARD at 36 months yielded an AUC of 80.6 (69.4, 91.9) compared with an AUC of 73.6 (55.4, 91.7) for the NRG clinical nomogram. GARD≥64.2 was associated with improved OS (HR = 0.280 (0.100, 0.781), p = 0.015). In a virtual trial, GARD predicts that uniform RT dose de-escalation results in overall inferior OS but proposes two separate genomic strategies where selective RT dose de-escalation in GARD-selected populations results in clinical equipoise. Conclusions: In this multi-institutional cohort of patients with HPV-positive OPSCC, GARD predicts OS as a continuous variable, outperforms the NRG nomogram and provides a novel genomic strategy to modern clinical trial design. We propose that GARD, which provides the first opportunity for genomic guided personalization of radiation dose, should be incorporated in the diagnostic workup of HPV-positive OPSCC patients.

Diabetes, Obesity, and Pathological Upstaging in Renal Cell Carcinoma: Results From a Large Multi-institutional Consortium.

PURPOSE: We sought to determine whether clinical risk factors and morphometric features on preoperative imaging can be utilized to identify those patients with cT1 tumors who are at higher risk of upstaging (pT3a). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective international case-control study of consecutive patients treated surgically with radical or partial nephrectomy for nonmetastatic renal cell carcinoma (cT1 N0) conducted between January 2010 and December 2018. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to study associations of preoperative risk factors on pT3a pathological upstaging among all patients, as well as subsets with those with preoperative tumors ≤4 cm, renal nephrometry scores, tumors ≤4 cm with nephrometry scores, and clear cell histology. We also examined association with pT3a subsets (renal vein, sinus fat, perinephric fat). RESULTS: Among the 4,092 partial nephrectomy and 2,056 radical nephrectomy patients, pathological upstaging occurred in 4.9% and 23.3%, respectively. Among each group independent factors associated with pT3a upstaging were increasing preoperative tumor size, increasing age, and the presence of diabetes. Specifically, among partial nephrectomy subjects diabetes (OR=1.65; 95% CI 1.17, 2.29), male sex (OR=1.62; 95% CI 1.14, 2.33), and increasing BMI (OR=1.03; 95% CI 1.00, 1.05 per 1 unit BMI) were statistically associated with upstaging. Subset analyses identified hilar tumors as more likely to be upstaged (partial nephrectomy OR=1.91; 95% CI 1.12, 3.16; radical nephrectomy OR=2.16; 95% CI 1.44, 3.25). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes and higher BMI were associated with pathological upstaging, as were preoperative tumor size, increased age, and male sex. Similarly, hilar tumors were frequently upstaged.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of cardiac stress testing before major noncardiac surgery-A cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the incremental contribution of preoperative stress test results toward a diagnosis of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), prediction of mortality, or prediction of perioperative myocardial infarction in patients considering noncardiac, nonophthalmologic surgery. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective cohort study of visits to a preoperative risk assessment and optimization clinic in a large health system between 2008 and 2018. MEASUREMENTS: To assess diagnostic information of preoperative stress testing, we used the Begg and Greenes method to calculate test characteristics adjusted for referral bias, with a gold standard of angiography. To assess prognostic information, we first created multiply-imputed logistic regression models to predict 90-day mortality and perioperative myocardial infarction (MI), starting with two tools commonly used to assess perioperative cardiac risk, Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) and Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest (MICA). We then added stress test results and compared the discrimination for models with and without stress test results. MAIN RESULTS: Among 136,935 visits by patients without an existing diagnosis of CAD, the decision to obtain preoperative stress testing identified around 4.0% of likely new diagnoses. Stress testing increased the likelihood of CAD (likelihood ratio: 1.31), but for over 99% of patients, stress testing should not change a decision on whether to proceed to angiography. In 117,445 visits with subsequent noncardiac surgery, stress test results failed to improve predictions of either perioperative MI or 90-day mortality. Reweighting the models and adding hemoglobin improved the prediction of both outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac stress testing before noncardiac, nonophthalmologic surgery does not improve predictions of either perioperative mortality or myocardial infarction. Very few patients considering noncardiac, nonophthalmologic surgery have a pretest probability of CAD in a range where stress testing could usefully select patients for angiography. Better use of existing patient data could improve predictions of perioperative adverse events without additional patient testing.

Consequences of preoperative cardiac stress testing-A cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To understand the consequences of functional cardiac stress testing among patients considering noncardiac nonophthalmologic surgery. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study of 118,552 patients who made 159,795 visits to a dedicated preoperative risk assessment and optimization clinic between 2008 and 2018. SETTING: A large integrated health system. PATIENTS: Patients who visited a dedicated preoperative risk assessment and optimization clinic before noncardiac nonophthalmologic surgery. MEASUREMENTS: To assess changes to care delivered, we measured the probability of completing additional cardiac testing, cardiac surgery, or noncardiac surgery. To assess outcomes, we measured time-to-mortality and total one-year mortality. MAIN RESULTS: In causal inference models, preoperative stress testing was associated with increased likelihood of coronary angiography (relative risk: 8.6, 95% CI 6.1-12.1), increased likelihood of percutaneous coronary intervention (RR: 4.1, 95% CI: 1.8-9.2), increased likelihood of cardiac surgery (RR: 6.8, 95% CI 4.9-9.4), decreased likelihood of noncardiac surgery (RR: 0.77, 95% CI 0.75-0.79), and delayed noncardiac surgery for patients completing noncardiac surgery (mean 28.3 days, 95% CI: 23.1-33.6). The base rate of downstream cardiac testing was low, and absolute risk increases were small. Stress testing was associated with higher mortality in unadjusted analysis but was not associated with mortality in causal inference analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative cardiac stress testing likely induces coronary angiography and cardiac interventions while decreasing use of noncardiac surgery and delaying surgery for patients who ultimately proceed to noncardiac surgery. Despite changes to processes of care, our results do not support a causal relationship between stress testing and postoperative mortality. Analyses of care cascades should consider care that is avoided or substituted in addition to care that is induced.

A preoperative nomogram incorporating CT to predict the probability of ovarian clear cell carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate clinical, laboratory, and radiological variables from preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) for their ability to distinguish ovarian clear cell carcinoma (OCCC) from non-OCCC and to develop a nomogram to preoperatively predict the probability of OCCC. METHODS: This IRB-approved, retrospective study included consecutive patients who underwent surgery for an ovarian tumor from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2016 and CECT of the abdomen and pelvis ≤90 days before primary debulking surgery. Using a standardized form, two experienced oncologic radiologists independently analyzed imaging features and provided a subjective 5-point impression of the probability of the histological diagnosis. Nomogram models incorporating clinical, laboratory, and radiological features were created to predict histological diagnosis of OCCC over non-OCCC. RESULTS: The final analysis included 533 patients with surgically confirmed OCCC (n = 61) and non-OCCC (n = 472); history of endometriosis was more often found in patients with OCCC (20% versus 3.6%; p < 0.001), while CA-125 was significantly higher in patients with non-OCCC (351 ng/mL versus 70 ng/mL; p < 0.001). A nomogram model incorporating clinical (age, history of endometriosis and adenomyosis), laboratory (CA-125) and imaging findings (peritoneal implant distribution, morphology, laterality, and diameter of ovarian lesion and of the largest solid component) had an AUC of 0.9 (95% CI: 0.847, 0.949), which was comparable to the AUCs of the experienced radiologists' subjective impressions [0.8 (95% CI: 0.822, 0.891) and 0.9 (95% CI: 0.865, 0.936)]. CONCLUSIONS: A presurgical nomogram model incorporating readily accessible clinical, laboratory, and CECT variables was a powerful predictor of OCCC, a subtype often requiring a distinctive treatment approach.

Clinical Nomogram Using Novel Computed Tomography-Based Radiomics Predicts Survival in Patients With Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Treated With Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: Improved survival prediction and risk stratification in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) would lead to better prognosis counseling, adjuvant therapy selection, and clinical trial design. We propose the persistent homology (PHOM) score, the radiomic quantification of solid tumor topology, as a solution. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients diagnosed with stage I or II NSCLC primarily treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) were selected (N = 554). The PHOM score was calculated for each patient's pretreatment computed tomography scan (October 2008-November 2019). PHOM score, age, sex, stage, Karnofsky Performance Status, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and post-SBRT chemotherapy were predictors in the Cox proportional hazards models for OS and cancer-specific survival. Patients were split into high- and low-PHOM score groups and compared using Kaplan-Meier curves for overall survival (OS) and cumulative incidence curves for cause-specific death. Finally, we generated a validated nomogram to predict OS, which is publicly available at Eashwarsoma.Shinyapps. RESULTS: PHOM score was a significant predictor for OS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.28) and was the only significant predictor for cancer-specific survival (1.31; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.56) in the multivariable Cox model. The median survival for the high-PHOM group was 29.2 months (95% CI, 23.6 to 34.3), which was significantly worse compared with the low-PHOM group (45.4 months; 95% CI, 40.1 to 51.8; P < .001). The high-PHOM group had a significantly greater chance of cancer-specific death at post-treatment month 65 (0.244; 95% CI, 0.192 to 0.296) compared with the low-PHOM group (0.171; 95% CI, 0.123 to 0.218; P = .029). CONCLUSION: The PHOM score is associated with cancer-specific survival and predictive of OS. Our developed nomogram can be used to inform clinical prognosis and assist in making post-SBRT treatment considerations.

When to order genomic tests: development and external validation of a model to predict high-risk prostate cancer at the genotypic level.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to develop a model to predict high-genomic-risk prostate cancer (PCa) according to Decipher score, a validated 22 gene prognostic panel. By doing so, one might select the individuals who are likely to benefit from genomic testing and improve pre-op counseling about the need for adjuvant treatments. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed IRB-approved databases at two institutions. All patients had preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and Decipher prostate radical prostatectomy (RP), a validated 22 gene prognostic panel. We used binary logistic regression to estimate high-risk Decipher (Decipher score > 0.60) probability on RP specimen. Area under the curve (AUC) and calibration were used to assess the accuracy of the model in the development and validation cohort. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to assess the clinical benefit of the model. RESULTS: The development and validation cohort included 622 and 185 patients with 283 (35%) and 80 (43%) of those with high-risk Decipher. The multivariable model included PSA density, biopsy Gleason Grade Group, percentage of positive cores and MRI extracapsular extension. AUC was 0.73 after leave-one-out cross-validation. DCA showed a clinical benefit in a range of probabilities between 15 and 60%. In the external validation cohort, AUC was 0.70 and calibration showed that the model underestimates the actual probability of the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed model to predict high-risk Decipher score at RP is helpful to improve risk stratification of patients with PCa and to assess the need for additional testing and treatments.

Understanding Treatment Response in Individual Profiles of Men with Prostatic Enlargement at Risk of Progression.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear how cumulative multivariable effects of clinically relevant covariates impact response to pharmacological treatments for lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS)/benign prostatic enlargement (BPE). OBJECTIVE: To develop models to predict treatment response in terms of International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) and the risk of acute urinary retention (AUR) or BPE-related surgery, based on large data sets and using as predictors baseline characteristics that commonly define the risk of disease progression. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 9167 patients with LUTS/BPE at risk of progression in three placebo-controlled dutasteride trials and one comparing dutasteride, tamsulosin, and dutasteride + tamsulosin combination therapy (CT) were included in the analysis to predict response to placebo up to 24 mo and active treatment up to 48 mo. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Predictors included age, IPSS, total prostate volume (PV), maximum urinary flow rate (Qmax), prostate-specific antigen, postvoid residual urine (PVR), α-blocker usage within 12 mo, and randomised treatment. A generalised least-squares model was developed for longitudinal IPSS and a Cox proportional-hazards model for time to first AUR/surgery. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The vast majority of patients benefit from dutasteride or CT when compared with tamsulosin alone. The predicted IPSS improvement with dutasteride or CT increased with greater PV and severity of symptoms at baseline. The tamsulosin effect was lower with greater baseline PV and tended to decrease over time. Predicted AUR/surgery risk was greater with tamsulosin versus CT or dutasteride; this risk increased with larger PV, higher PVR, and lower Qmax (all at baseline). An educational interactive web-based tool facilitates visualisation of the results (www.bphtool.com). Limitations include: the placebo and active-treatment predictions are from different studies, the lack of similar studies for external validation, and the focus on a population at risk of progression from the 4-yr CombAT study. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive modelling based on large data sets and visualisation of the risk for individual profiles can improve our understanding of how risk factors for disease progression interact and affect response to different treatments, reinforcing the importance of an individualised approach for LUTS/BPE management. PATIENT SUMMARY: We used data from previous studies to develop statistical models for predicting how men with lower urinary tract symptoms or benign prostate enlargement and at risk of disease complications respond to certain treatments according to their individual characteristics.

Association between first-line monotherapy with metformin and the risk of atrial fibrillation (AMRAF) in patients with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has a strong association with atrial fibrillation (AF) which increases risk of thromboembolic events, heart failure, and frequent hospitalizations. Metformin is the first-line medication for T2D with proposed anti-inflammatory, pro-metabolic, and cardio-protective benefits. Our objective was to investigate if initial therapy with metformin is associated with reduced incidence of AF in comparison to other non-insulin anti-hyperglycemic agents in patients with newly diagnosed T2D. METHODS: This retrospective cohort analysis included adults with a new diagnosis of T2D who were started on monotherapy (except insulin) between 2007 and 2017, without prior anti-hyperglycemic agent use, history of arrhythmias, or estimated GFR (eGFR) ≤ 30 ml/min. A multivariate analysis was performed using a fine-gray regression competing risk analysis to control for confounding variables after which pooled hazard ratios and 95 % confidence intervals were reported. Patients were followed until the end of study date, development of AF, addition of more anti-hyperglycemic agents, or death, whichever occurred first. RESULTS: Among 4584 metformin initiators compared to 1080 non-metformin monotherapy initiators, 10-year cumulative incidence of AF in metformin group was 5.2 % as compared to 8.1 % with other agents which was not statistically significant. Competing risk analysis did not demonstrate reduced rates of AF with metformin use (HR 0.92, 95 % CI 0.69 to 1.21; P = 0.55). Increased age and the presence of congestive heart failure were associated with significantly higher risk of AF in both groups (HR: 1.29, 95 % CI: 1.21 to 1.37; P ≤ 0.001; HR: 2.73, 95 % CI: 1.62 to 4.61; P ≤ 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: Initiation of metformin as a first line monotherapy for T2D, when compared to other non-insulin monotherapies, was not associated with decreased risk of developing AF in this retrospective observational study.

Accommodating heterogeneous missing data patterns for prostate cancer risk prediction.

BACKGROUND: We compared six commonly used logistic regression methods for accommodating missing risk factor data from multiple heterogeneous cohorts, in which some cohorts do not collect some risk factors at all, and developed an online risk prediction tool that accommodates missing risk factors from the end-user. METHODS: Ten North American and European cohorts from the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group (PBCG) were used for fitting a risk prediction tool for clinically significant prostate cancer, defined as Gleason grade group ≥ 2 on standard TRUS prostate biopsy. One large European PBCG cohort was withheld for external validation, where calibration-in-the-large (CIL), calibration curves, and area-underneath-the-receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) were evaluated. Ten-fold leave-one-cohort-internal validation further validated the optimal missing data approach. RESULTS: Among 12,703 biopsies from 10 training cohorts, 3,597 (28%) had clinically significant prostate cancer, compared to 1,757 of 5,540 (32%) in the external validation cohort. In external validation, the available cases method that pooled individual patient data containing all risk factors input by an end-user had best CIL, under-predicting risks as percentages by 2.9% on average, and obtained an AUC of 75.7%. Imputation had the worst CIL (-13.3%). The available cases method was further validated as optimal in internal cross-validation and thus used for development of an online risk tool. For end-users of the risk tool, two risk factors were mandatory: serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and age, and ten were optional: digital rectal exam, prostate volume, prior negative biopsy, 5-alpha-reductase-inhibitor use, prior PSA screen, African ancestry, Hispanic ethnicity, first-degree prostate-, breast-, and second-degree prostate-cancer family history. CONCLUSION: Developers of clinical risk prediction tools should optimize use of available data and sources even in the presence of high amounts of missing data and offer options for users with missing risk factors.

Association of Bariatric Surgery With Cancer Risk and Mortality in Adults With Obesity.

Importance: Obesity increases the incidence and mortality from some types of cancer, but it remains uncertain whether intentional weight loss can decrease this risk. Objective: To investigate whether bariatric surgery is associated with lower cancer risk and mortality in patients with obesity. Design, Setting, and Participants: In the SPLENDID (Surgical Procedures and Long-term Effectiveness in Neoplastic Disease Incidence and Death) matched cohort study, adult patients with a body mass index of 35 or greater who underwent bariatric surgery at a US health system between 2004 and 2017 were included. Patients who underwent bariatric surgery were matched 1:5 to patients who did not undergo surgery for their obesity, resulting in a total of 30 318 patients. Follow-up ended in February 2021. Exposures: Bariatric surgery (n = 5053), including Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and sleeve gastrectomy, vs nonsurgical care (n = 25 265). Main Outcomes and Measures: Multivariable Cox regression analysis estimated time to incident obesity-associated cancer (a composite of 13 cancer types as the primary end point) and cancer-related mortality. Results: The study included 30 318 patients (median age, 46 years; median body mass index, 45; 77% female; and 73% White) with a median follow-up of 6.1 years (IQR, 3.8-8.9 years). The mean between-group difference in body weight at 10 years was 24.8 kg (95% CI, 24.6-25.1 kg) or a 19.2% (95% CI, 19.1%-19.4%) greater weight loss in the bariatric surgery group. During follow-up, 96 patients in the bariatric surgery group and 780 patients in the nonsurgical control group had an incident obesity-associated cancer (incidence rate of 3.0 events vs 4.6 events, respectively, per 1000 person-years). The cumulative incidence of the primary end point at 10 years was 2.9% (95% CI, 2.2%-3.6%) in the bariatric surgery group and 4.9% (95% CI, 4.5%-5.3%) in the nonsurgical control group (absolute risk difference, 2.0% [95% CI, 1.2%-2.7%]; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.53-0.87], P = .002). Cancer-related mortality occurred in 21 patients in the bariatric surgery group and 205 patients in the nonsurgical control group (incidence rate of 0.6 events vs 1.2 events, respectively, per 1000 person-years). The cumulative incidence of cancer-related mortality at 10 years was 0.8% (95% CI, 0.4%-1.2%) in the bariatric surgery group and 1.4% (95% CI, 1.1%-1.6%) in the nonsurgical control group (absolute risk difference, 0.6% [95% CI, 0.1%-1.0%]; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.31-0.88], P = .01). Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults with obesity, bariatric surgery compared with no surgery was associated with a significantly lower incidence of obesity-associated cancer and cancer-related mortality.

Computable Phenotype of a Crohn's Disease Natural History Model.

BACKGROUND: Analytic tools to study important clinical issues in complex, chronic diseases such as Crohn's disease (CD) include randomized trials, claims database studies, or small longitudinal epidemiologic cohorts. Using natural language processing (NLP), we sought to define the computable phenotype health state of pediatric and adult CD and develop patient-level longitudinal histories for health outcomes. METHODS: We defined 6 health states for CD using a subjective symptom-based assessment (symptomatic/asymptomatic) and an objective disease state assessment (active/inactive/no testing). Gold standard for the 6 health states was derived using an iterative process during review by our CD experts. We calculated the transition probabilities to estimate the time to transitions between the various health states using nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimation and a Markov model. Finally, we determined a standard utility measure from clinical patients assigned to different health states. RESULTS: The NLP computable phenotype health state model correctly ascertained the objective test results and symptoms 96% and 85% of the time, respectively, based on a blinded chart evaluation. In our model, >25% of patients who begin as asymptomatic/active transition to symptomatic/active over the following year. For both adult and pediatric CD health states, the utility assessments of a symptomatic/inactive health state closely resembled a symptomatic/active health state. CONCLUSIONS: Our methodology for a computable phenotype health state demonstrates the application of real-world data to define progression and optimal management of a chronic disease such as CD. The application of the model has the potential to lead to a better understanding of the true impact of a therapeutic intervention and can provide long-term cost-effectiveness analyses for a new therapy. HIGHLIGHTS: Using natural language processing, we defined the computable phenotype health state of Crohn's disease and developed patient-level longitudinal histories for health outcomes.Our methodology demonstrates the application of real-world data to define the progression of a chronic disease.The application of the model has the potential to provide better understanding of the true impact of a new therapy.

MRI-Detectability of Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer Relates to Oncologic Outcomes After Prostatectomy.

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) misses a proportion of "clinically significant" prostate cancers (csPC) as defined by histopathology criteria. The aim of this study was to analyze whether long-term oncologic outcomes differ between MRI-detectable and MRI-occult csPC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 1449 patients with pre-prostatectomy MRI and csPC on prostatectomy specimens (ie, Grade group ≥2 or extraprostatic spread) between 2001-2006. T2-weighted MRIs were classified according to the Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System into MRI-occult (categories 1, 2), MRI-equivocal (category 3), and MRI-detectable (categories 4, 5). Cumulative incidence of biochemical recurrence (BCR), metastatic disease, and cancer-specific mortality, estimated with competing risk models. The median follow-up in survivors was 11.0 years (IQR: 8.9-13.1). RESULTS: In 188 (13%) cases, csPC was MRI-occult, 435 (30%) MRIs were equivocal, and 826 (57%) csPC were MRI-detectable. The 15-year cumulative incidence [95% CI] of BCR was 8.3% [2.2, 19.5] for MRI-occult cases, 17.4% [11.1, 24.8] for MRI-equivocal cases, and 43.3% [38.7, 47.8] for MRI-detectable cases (P < .001). The cumulative incidences of metastases were 0.61% [0.06, 3.1], 3.5% [1.5, 6.9], and 19.6% [15.4, 24.2] for MRI-occult, MRI-equivocal, and MRI-detectable cases, respectively (P < .001). There were no deaths from prostate cancer observed in patients with MRI-occult csPC, compared to an estimated 1.9% [0.54, 4.9], and 7.1 % [4.5, 10.6] for patients with MRI-equivocal and MRI-detectable cancer, respectively (P < .001). CONCLUSION: Oncologic outcomes after prostatectomy for csPC differ between MRI-occult and MRI-detectable lesions. Judging the clinical significance of a negative prostate MRI based on histopathologic surrogates alone might be misleading. MICROABSTRACT: Among 1449 patients with pre-prostatectomy MRI and clinically significant prostate cancer on prostatectomy histopathology, MRI-occult cancers (n = 188, 13%) were less likely to recur biochemically (8% vs. 43%, P < .001), metastasize (0.6% vs. 20%, P < .001), or lead to prostate cancer mortality (0% vs. 7%, P < .001) than MRI-detectable cancers (n = 826, 57%). MRI-occult cancers constitute a prognostically distinct subgroup among higher-grade prostate cancers.

Prediction of future risk of any and higher-grade prostate cancer based on the PLCO and SELECT trials.

BACKGROUND: A model was built that characterized effects of individual factors on five-year prostate cancer (PCa) risk in the Prostate, Lung, Colon, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT). This model was validated in a third San Antonio Biomarkers of Risk (SABOR) screening cohort. METHODS: A prediction model for 1- to 5-year risk of developing PCa and Gleason > 7 PCa (HG PCa) was built on PLCO and SELECT using the Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for patient baseline characteristics. Random forests and neural networks were compared to Cox proportional hazard survival models, using the trial datasets for model building and the SABOR cohort for model evaluation. The most accurate prediction model is included in an online calculator. RESULTS: The respective rates of PCa were 8.9%, 7.2%, and 11.1% in PLCO (n = 31,495), SELECT (n = 35,507), and SABOR (n = 1790) over median follow-up of 11.7, 8.1 and 9.0 years. The Cox model showed higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA), BMI and age, and African American race to be associated with PCa and HGPCa. Five-year risk predictions from the combined SELECT and PLCO model effectively discriminated risk in the SABOR cohort with C-index 0.76 (95% CI [0.72, 0.79]) for PCa, and 0.74 (95% CI [0.65,0.83]) for HGPCa. CONCLUSIONS: A 1- to 5-year PCa risk prediction model developed from PLCO and SELECT was validated with SABOR and implemented online. This model can individualize and inform shared screening decisions.