Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts.

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

Readiness for smoking cessation in coronary heart disease patients across Europe: Results from the EUROASPIRE III survey.

BACKGROUND: Readiness for smoking cessation is an important predictor of quit attempts and cessation success. We aimed to investigate the prevalence and correlates of readiness for smoking cessation in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients. DESIGN: The EUROpean Action on Secondary and Primary Prevention by Intervention to Reduce Events III (EUROASPIRE III) survey is a cross-sectional study conducted in 2006-2007 among CHD patients <80 years of age from 22 European regions. METHODS: Patients were interviewed on average 15 months after hospital admission for an acute coronary event or procedure. Readiness for smoking cessation was assessed using the smoking stages of change (SSC) short form questionnaire. Breath carbon monoxide was measured to validate self-reported non-smoking. RESULTS: Among 2585 patients who were smoking prior to hospital admission, 25.6%, 16.8%, 8.1%, 5.6% and 44.0% were in the precontemplation (no intention to quit), contemplation (thinking of quitting), preparation (planning to quit), action (having quit within six months) and maintenance (having quit more than six months ago) stages, respectively. Significant multivariable correlates of advancement in SSC showed positive associations of older age and attended cardiac rehabilitation and negative associations of severe depressive symptoms, longer smoking duration and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure. CONCLUSIONS: One-quarter of CHD patients across Europe who were smoking prior to hospitalisation have no intention to quit, and an additional quarter is thinking of quitting or planning to quit. Patients who are younger, do not attend cardiac rehabilitation, have severe depressive symptoms, have been smoking for longer periods of time and are exposed to ETS may need to be specifically targeted in cessation interventions.

Control of main risk factors after ischaemic stroke across Europe: data from the stroke-specific module of the EUROASPIRE III survey.

BACKGROUND: Previous cross-sectional surveys in different European countries within the EUROASPIRE programme demonstrated a high prevalence of modifiable risk factors, unhealthy lifestyles and inadequate drug treatment in coronary heart disease patients. Comparable data for ischaemic stroke patients is lacking. METHODS: A stroke-specific study module was added to the EUROASPIRE III core survey. This cross-sectional multicentre survey included consecutive patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke from four European countries. Data were obtained from medical records, patient interviews and patient examinations within 6-36 months after the stroke event. Control of modifiable risk factors after stroke was evaluated against contemporary European guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 881 patients was recruited. Median age was 66 years, 37.5% were female; average time from the stroke event to interview was 550 days. At the time of the interview, 17.6% of stroke patients smoked cigarettes, 35.5% had a body mass index ≥30 kg/m(2), 62.4% showed elevated blood pressure and 75.7% exhibited elevated LDL cholesterol levels. Antiplatelet drugs or oral anticoagulants were used by 87.2%, antihypertensive medication by 84.4% and statins by 56.8% of stroke patients. Among patients using antihypertensive drugs and lipid-lowering medication at the time of the interview, 34.3% and 34.4%, respectively, achieved target blood pressure and total cholesterol values according to current European guidelines. CONCLUSION: The EUROASPIRE III stroke-specific module shows that secondary prevention and risk factor control in patients after ischaemic stroke need to be improved in four European centres at the time of the study since about half of patients are not achieving risk factor targets defined in European guidelines.

German nationwide data on current trends and management of acute myocardial infarction: discrepancies between trials and real-life.

AIMS: Recent guidelines on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are based on randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and registries with selected patients, and may therefore not represent 'real-life'. This analysis shows for the first time nationwide trends in AMI from Germany. METHODS AND RESULTS: We were provided with data on all in-patient hospitalizations by the Federal Statistical Office. All hospitalized cases with AMI (onset of symptoms <28 days) from the years 2005, 2007, and 2009 were analysed regarding morbidity, in-hospital mortality, treatments, and costs. Analysis of a total of 16.1, 16.6, and 17.2 million hospitalizations showed the proportion of coded AMI to remain relatively constant (1276, 1272, and 1181 per 100 000 hospitalizations in 2005, 2007, and 2009). The proportion of ST-elevation AMI decreased over time (STEMI; 631, 546, and 454 per 100 000 hospitalizations),while non-ST-elevation AMI increased (NSTEMI; 645, 726, and 727 per 100 000 hospitalizations). The proportion of older patients >75 years (+4.6%), of comorbidities such as hypertension (+5.8%), diabetes (+17.7%), left ventricular failure (+19.8%), peripheral artery disease (+13.3%), and chronic kidney disease (+165.4%) increased as well. In-hospital mortality remained relatively stable during this period in AMI cases overall (11.1, 10.7, 10.8%) but changed slightly in STEMI (11.2, 11.9, 12.2%) and NSTEMI (11.0, 9.9, 9.9%). Causing about 1.2% of hospitalizations, AMI accounted for 2.5% (1.2 billion €) of in-hospital health expenses. CONCLUSION: This hospitalization-based analysis revealed a marked increase of NSTEMI among constant AMI frequency. Despite all current efforts, in-hospital mortality was stagnating on a high level compared with data of RCTs.

Passive smoking and smoking cessation among patients with coronary heart disease across Europe: results from the EUROASPIRE III survey.

AIMS: Passive smoking is the inhalation of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and is a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). We aimed to describe the frequency of passive smoking among patients with CHD and to investigate the association between ETS exposure and smoking cessation. METHODS AND RESULTS: The EUROASPIRE III survey was conducted in 2006-07 among CHD patients up to 80 years of age from 22 European regions. Patients were interviewed and examined on average 15 months after hospital admission for CHD. Information was obtained on smoking prior to hospital admission, smoking at interview, and ETS exposure at home, at work, and at other locations. Breath carbon monoxide was measured to validate self-reported non-smoking. Among 8729 patients, 6060 (69.4%) were non-smokers prior to hospital admission, of whom 10.3% reported ETS exposure at home, 7.2% at work, and 13.8% at other locations. Overall, 24.2% of non-smokers were exposed to ETS at any place. Among the 2669 patients who were smoking prior to hospital admission, the likelihood of cessation at interview was lower in those with ETS exposure at home than in those without [25.3 vs. 58.1%; adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.20-0.33]. This finding applied also to ETS exposure at work (32.2 vs. 52.7%; adjusted OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.42-0.76) and at other locations (38.0 vs. 52.8%; adjusted OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.48-0.84). CONCLUSION: A noteworthy proportion of non-smokers with CHD are exposed to ETS. Passive smoking may jeopardize smoking cessation among CHD patients.

Extended cancer mortality follow-up of a German rubber industry cohort.

OBJECTIVE: We extended follow-up of a cohort of German rubber industry workers (active or retired in 1981) by 9 years (1992 to 2000) to reassess previously observed cancer mortality risks. METHODS: We calculated standardized mortality ratios and stratified results by work area, duration of employment, and year of hire. RESULTS: The cohort includes 11,632 men and 1863 women from five tire or general rubber goods producing factories. Among men we observed significantly elevated standardized mortality ratios for cancers of the lung and the pleura in the full cohort and in specific strata. Among women we observed a significantly elevated standardized mortality ratio for cancer of the lung. CONCLUSIONS: We observed excess risk for several cancer sites among men and women. Further cancer risk analysis of workers in the rubber industry should focus on differences in work areas and associated exposures.

Effects of smoking on arterial distensibility, central aortic pressures and left ventricular mass.

BACKGROUND: The effects of smoking on central aortic pressures and the age-related increase in left ventricular mass (LVM) are largely unknown. We studied the relationship between smoking, arterial distensibility, central aortic pressures and left ventricular mass in two population-based studies. METHODS: Data was obtained from two German population-based studies (KORA and SHIP, participants' ages 25-84 years). We identified 114 normotensive current smokers and 185 normotensive all-time non-smokers in KORA as well as 400 and 588 such individuals in SHIP. Echocardiographic LVM was obtained at baseline (T0) and follow-up after ten years (T1) in KORA and at follow-up (T1) in SHIP. Additionally, pulse-wave analysis-based central aortic pressure and augmentation index (AIx) were measured at T1 in KORA. RESULTS: Cross-sectional analysis, using KORA T0 and SHIP T1, revealed in both studies a higher covariate-adjusted LVM and left ventricular mass index (LVMI) in smokers as compared with non-smokers. Moreover, in the KORA T1 examination, the smokers demonstrated a more pronounced increase, relative to baseline, of LVM (+13.5%) and LVMI (+13.4%) compared to non-smokers (+8.59% and +8.65%; p=0.036 and 0.042, respectively). Additionally, at KORA T1 smokers had a higher central systolic blood pressure and higher AIx than non-smokers (p=0.012 and p=0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The difference in central aortic pressure due to enhanced and more prolonged wave reflection may explain our finding of a further pronounced increase in left ventricular wall thickness and mass over time in smokers.

Residual risk of cardiovascular mortality in patients with coronary heart disease: the EUROASPIRE risk categories.

BACKGROUND: The EUROASPIRE I, II and III surveys revealed high prevalences of modifiable risk factors in the high priority group of coronary patients all over Europe. The potential to further reduce coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality rates is still considerable. We report here on the relative risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) death associated with common modifiable risk factor levels based on the mortality follow-up of patients participating in the first two EUROASPIRE surveys. We also present a novel simple risk classification system (ERC) that can be used in the management of patients with existing CHD. METHODS: The study cohort consisted of a consecutive sample of CHD patients aged ≤ 70 years from 12 European countries. Baseline data gathered in 1995-2000 through standardized methods, were linked to cardiovascular mortality in 5216 patients according to an accelerated failure time model. RESULTS: During 28,143 person-years of follow-up, 332 patients died from cardiovascular disease denoting a CVD mortality risk of 12.3 per 1000 person-years in men and 10.2 per 1000 person-years in women. In multivariate analysis, fasting glucose, total cholesterol and smoking emerged as the strongest independent modifiable predictors of cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the mortality follow-up of the EUROASPIRE I and II CHD patients emphasize the continuing risk from elevated glucose and total cholesterol levels and underline the importance of smoking cessation in secondary prevention. The ERC risk tool that we developed may prove helpful to obtain these goals in the setting of secondary prevention.

The association between tobacco and the risk of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in children and adolescents: analyses from Phase Three of the ISAAC programme.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to parental smoking is associated with wheeze in early childhood, but in 2006 the US Surgeon General stated that the evidence is insufficient to infer a causal relationship between exposure and asthma in childhood and adolescents. AIMS: To examine the association between maternal and paternal smoking and symptoms of asthma, eczema and rhinoconjunctivitis. METHODS: Parents or guardians of children aged 6-7 years completed written questionnaires about symptoms of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema, and several risk factors, including maternal smoking in the child's first year of life, current maternal smoking (and amount) and paternal smoking. Adolescents aged 13-14 years self completed the questionnaires on these symptoms and whether their parents currently smoked. RESULTS: In the 6-7-year age group there were 220 407 children from 75 centres in 32 countries. In the 13-14-year age group there were 350 654 adolescents from 118 centres in 53 countries. Maternal and paternal smoking was associated with an increased risk of symptoms of asthma, eczema and rhinoconjunctivitis in both age groups, although the magnitude of the OR is higher for symptoms of asthma than the other outcomes. Maternal smoking is associated with higher ORs than paternal smoking. For asthma symptoms there is a clear dose relationship (1-9 cigarettes/day, OR 1.27; 10-19 cigarettes/day, OR 1.35; and 20+ cigarettes/day, OR 1.56). When maternal smoking in the child's first year of life and current maternal smoking are considered, the main effect is due to maternal smoking in the child's first year of life. There was no interaction between maternal and paternal smoking. CONCLUSIONS: This study has confirmed the importance of maternal smoking, and the separate and additional effect of paternal smoking. The presence of a dose-response effect relationship with asthma symptoms suggests that the relationship is causal, however for eczema and rhinoconjunctivitis causality is less certain.

Trends in cardiovascular risk factors among patients with coronary heart disease: results from the EUROASPIRE I, II, and III surveys in the Münster region.

BACKGROUND: Target values for cardiovascular risk factors in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) are stated in guidelines for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. We studied secular trends in risk factors over a 12-year period among CHD patients in the region of Münster, Germany. METHODS: The cross-sectional EUROASPIRE I, II and III surveys were performed in multiple centers across Europe. For all three, the Münster region was the participating German region. In the three periods 1995/96, 1999/2000, and 2006/07, the surveys included (respectively) 392, 402 and 457 ≤ 70-year-old patients with CHD in Münster who had sustained a coronary event at least 6 months earlier. RESULTS: The prevalence of smoking remained unchanged, with 16.8% in EUROASPIRE I and II and 18.4% in EUROASPIRE III (p=0.898). On the other hand, high blood pressure and high cholesterol both became less common across the three EUROASPIRE studies (60.7% to 69.4% to 55.3%, and 94.3% to 83.4% to 48.1%, respectively; p<0.001 for both). Obesity became more common (23.0% to 30.6% to 43.1%, p<0.001), as did treatment with antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drugs (80.4% to 88.6% to 94.3%, and 35.0% to 67.4% to 87.0%, respectively; p<0.001 for both). CONCLUSION: The observed trends in cardiovascular risk factors under-score the vital need for better preventive strategies in patients with CHD.

Relationships between body mass index, cardiovascular mortality, and risk factors: a report from the SCORE investigators.

BACKGROUND: Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the biggest global cause of death, CVD mortality is falling in developed countries. There is concern that this trend may be offset by increasing levels of obesity. DESIGN: We used the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) data set to examine relationships between body mass index (BMI), conventional risk factors and CVD mortality. METHODS: The SCORE data set comprises data from 12 European cohort studies. The relationship between BMI and CVD mortality was examined in each BMI category using univariable and multivariable (Cox) analyses. The SCORE population was also divided into gender and age strata: under 40, 40-49, 50-59, and over 60. The rate of CVD mortality in each BMI category was calculated within each gender and age stratum. Relationships between BMI and other CVD risk factors were also examined. RESULTS: There was a strong, graded but J-shaped univariable relationship between BMI and CVD mortality in both genders. Each 5-unit increase in BMI was associated with an increase in CVD mortality of 34% in men and 29% in women. The hazard ratios remained significant when adjusted for age, self-reported smoking status, total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure (SBP). On additional adjustment for diabetes and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), the association between BMI and CVD mortality did not persist. In all age groups except those over 60 there were significant relationships between increased BMI and CVD mortality. In the over-60 age group the only significant relationships with mortality were in underweight and severely overweight women and mildly obese men. After adjustment for age, each 1-unit increase in BMI was associated with a 1.14 mmHg increase in SBP, 0.055 mmol/l increase in total cholesterol, and a 0.024 mmol/l decrease in HDL in men. Figures were slightly lower in women. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, overweight and obesity relate to CVD mortality in a strong and graded manner. The effects are greater in women and markedly so in younger persons. It is likely that a substantial part of the BMI-associated risk of CVD mortality is mediated through other known CVD risk factors. This increases the public health importance of BMI as both a simple indicator and mediator of CVD risk.

EUROASPIRE III. Management of cardiovascular risk factors in asymptomatic high-risk patients in general practice: cross-sectional survey in 12 European countries.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the 2003 Joint European Societies' guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in people at high cardiovascular risk have been followed in general practice. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. METHODS: The EUROASPIRE survey was carried out in 2006-2007 in 66 general practices in 12 European countries. Patients without a history of coronary or other atherosclerotic disease either started on antihypertensive and/or lipid-lowering and/or antidiabetes treatments were identified retrospectively, interviewed and examined at least 6 months after the start of medication. RESULTS: Four thousand, three hundred and sixty-six high-risk individuals (57.7% females) were interviewed (participation rate 76.7%). Overall, 16.9% smoked cigarettes, 43.5% had body mass index ≥30 kg/m, 70.8% had blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg (≥130/80 in people with diabetes mellitus), 66.4% had total cholesterol ≥5.0 mmol/l (≥4.5 mmol/l in people with diabetes) and 30.2% reported a history of diabetes. The risk factor control was very poor, with only 26.3% of patients using antihypertensive medication achieving the blood pressure goal, 30.6% of patients on lipid-lowering medication achieving the total cholesterol goal and 39.9% of patients with self-reported diabetes having haemoglobin A1c ≤6.1%. The use of blood pressure-lowering medication in people with hypertension was: ß-blockers 34.1%, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers 60.8%, calcium channel blockers 26.3%, diuretics 36.9%. Statins were prescribed in 47.0% of people with hypercholesterolemia. About 22.0% of all patients were on aspirin or other antiplatelet medication. CONCLUSION: The EUROASPIRE III survey in general practice shows that the lifestyle of people being treated as high cardiovascular risk is a major cause of concern with persistent smoking and high prevalence of both obesity and central obesity. Blood pressure, lipid and glucose control are completely inadequate with most patients not achieving the targets defined in the prevention guidelines. Primary prevention needs a systematic, comprehensive, multidisciplinary approach, which addresses lifestyle and risk factor management by general practitioners, nurses and other allied health professionals, and a health care system which invests in prevention.

Association between degenerative aortic valve disease and long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors: results of the longitudinal population-based KORA/MONICA survey.

AIMS: Degenerative aortic valve disease (DAVD), a common finding in the elderly, is associated with an increased risk of death due to cardiovascular causes. Taking advantage of its longitudinal design, this study evaluates the prevalence of DAVD and its temporal associations with long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors in the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 953 subjects (aged 25-74 years) from a random sample of German residents. Risk factors had been determined at a baseline investigation in 1994/95. At a follow-up investigation, 10 years later, standardized echocardiography determined aortic valve morphology and aortic valve area (AVA) as well as left ventricular geometry and function. At the follow-up study, the overall prevalence of DAVD was 28%. In logistic regression models adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors at baseline age (OR 2.0 [1.7-2.3] per 10 years, P < 0.001), active smoking (OR 1.7 [1.1-2.4], P = 0.009) and elevated total cholesterol levels (OR 1.2 [1.1-1.3] per increase of 20 mg/dL, P < 0.001) were significantly related to DAVD at follow-up. Furthermore, age, baseline status of smoking, and total cholesterol level were significant predictors of a smaller AVA at follow-up study. In contrast, hypertension and obesity had no detectable relationship with long-term changes of aortic valve structure. CONCLUSIONS: In the general population we observed a high prevalence of DAVD that is associated with long-term exposure to elevated cholesterol levels and active smoking. These findings strengthen the notion that smoking cessation and cholesterol lowering are promising treatment targets for prevention of DAVD.

How much does HDL cholesterol add to risk estimation? A report from the SCORE Investigators.

BACKGROUND: Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), the risk estimation system recommended by the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention, estimates 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality based on age, sex, country of origin, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and either total cholesterol (TC) or TC/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio. As, counterintuitively, these two systems perform very similarly, we have investigated whether incorporating HDL-C and TC as separate variables improves risk estimation. METHODS: The study consisted of 57,302 men and 47,659 women. Cox proportional hazards method was used to derive the function including HDL-C and an identical function without HDL-C for comparison. Risk charts were developed to illustrate the results. RESULTS: Inclusion of HDL-C resulted in a modest but statistically significant improvement in risk estimation, based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC); 0.814 versus 0.808, P value less than 0.0001, for the functions with and without HDL-C, respectively. Addition of HDL-C also resulted in a significant and important improvement in risk estimation as measured by net reclassification index, which is highly clinically relevant. Improvement in risk estimation was greatest in women from high-risk countries, in terms of both AUROC and net reclassification index. CONCLUSION: For the general population, the inclusion of HDL-C in risk estimation results in only a modest improvement in overall risk estimation based on AUROC. However, when using the more clinically that examines reclassification of individuals, clinically useful improvements occur. Inclusion of HDL may be particularly useful in women from high-risk countries and individuals with unusually high or low HDL-C levels. Addition of HDL-C is particularly applicable to electronic, interactive risk estimation systems such as HeartScore.

Cardiovascular prevention guidelines in daily practice: a comparison of EUROASPIRE I, II, and III surveys in eight European countries.

BACKGROUND: The first and second EUROASPIRE surveys showed high rates of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in patients with coronary heart disease. The third EUROASPIRE survey was done in 2006-07 in 22 countries to see whether preventive cardiology had improved and if the Joint European Societies' recommendations on cardiovascular disease prevention are being followed in clinical practice. METHODS: EUROASPIRE I, II, and III were designed as cross-sectional studies and included the same selected geographical areas and hospitals in the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovenia. Consecutive patients (men and women /=30 kg/m(2)) increased from 25.0% in EUROASPIRE I, to 32.6% in II, and 38.0% in III (p=0.0006). The proportion of patients with raised blood pressure (>/=140/90 mm Hg in patients without diabetes or >/=130/80 mm Hg in patients with diabetes) was similar (58.1% in EUROASPIRE I, 58.3% in II, and 60.9% in III; p=0.49), whereas the proportion with raised total cholesterol (>/=4.5 mmol/L) decreased, from 94.5% in EUROASPIRE I to 76.7% in II, and 46.2% in III (p<0.0001). The frequency of self-reported diabetes mellitus increased, from 17.4%, to 20.1%, and 28.0% (p=0.004). INTERPRETATION: These time trends show a compelling need for more effective lifestyle management of patients with coronary heart disease. Despite a substantial increase in antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drugs, blood pressure management remained unchanged, and almost half of all patients remain above the recommended lipid targets. To salvage the acutely ischaemic myocardium without addressing the underlying causes of the disease is futile; we need to invest in prevention.

Cardiovascular risk factors and mortality in patients with coronary heart disease.

A priority in preventive cardiology is to reduce the number of recurrent events and to prolong survival in patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD). Aim of the present study was to examine risk factors for long-term mortality in CHD patients who entered routine secondary prevention after a coronary event or intervention. Such patients, from the EUROASPIRE (EUROpean Action on Secondary Prevention through Intervention to Reduce Events) I and II studies in the region of Münster, Germany, were followed over a mean period of 8.0 years up to the end of 2005. Patients were up to 70 years of age at baseline when they were interviewed and examined using standardised methods. Baseline examination was carried out at least 6 months and at a mean of 19.5 months after the coronary event or procedure. In 367 patients from EUROASPIRE I and 380 patients from EUROASPIRE II, a total of 125 deaths (16.7%) occurred during follow-up. Multivariate analyses, using Cox proportional hazards models, established diabetes mellitus and smoking as predictors for all-cause mortality with estimated hazard rate ratios (HRRs) of 2.24 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.43-3.49) and 1.95 (95% CI: 1.23-3.10), respectively. Significant associations were found between diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular (HRR 2.36; 95% CI: 1.31-4.24) as well as CHD mortality (HRR 2.40; 95% CI: 1.25-4.59). Systolic blood pressure was significantly associated with increased cerebrovascular disease mortality (HRR 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01 and 1.08 for 1 mmHg increase). In conclusion, long-term mortality in coronary patients from routine secondary prevention is substantial. Diabetes mellitus and smoking represent key issues in patients with established CHD.

Stroke mortality and morbidity attributable to passive smoking in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Passive smoking is an established risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). Epidemiological studies suggest that passive smoking may also be associated with an increased risk of stroke. We estimate the burden of stroke due to passive smoking in Germany. METHODS: Frequency of passive smoking was derived from the German national health survey. Nonsmokers who reported exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) at home were considered for analyses. The relative risk for stroke and passive smoking was derived by means of a meta-analysis from available cohort studies. We computed attributable risks for passive smoking and used data from official statistics to estimate stroke mortality due to ETS. Attributable stroke morbidity was calculated using the WHO-Global-Burden-of-Disease approach. RESULTS: Passive smoking may account for 774 stroke-related deaths and 1837 incident first ever strokes in Germany every year. More strokes owing to passive smoking occur among women (1248) than among men (589). The majority of strokes attributable to ETS happen at the age of 65-84 years. CONCLUSION: ETS is a common exposure and stroke is a frequent disease. Though the relative risk of passive smoking on stroke mortality and morbidity is small, the impact on population health is substantial.

Cardiovascular health among adults in Syria: a model from developing countries.

PURPOSE: Despite the considerable mortality and morbidity associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), many developing countries lack reliable surveillance of these ailments and their risk factors to guide intervention. This study aims to provide the first population-based estimates of CVD morbidity and mortality among adults in Aleppo, Syria and the distribution of their risk factors. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of adults 18 to 65 years old residing in Aleppo, Syria was carried out in 2004, involving 2038 household representatives (45.2% men; mean age, 35.3 years; response rate, 86%). Main outcomes of interest were physician-diagnosed CVD (infarction, angina, failure, stroke) among survey participants, and past 5-year mortality due to CVD among their household members older than 20 years of age (N = 6252, 49.5% men). Measurement of blood pressure (BP), height and weight, and smoking history were obtained as well. RESULTS: Prevalence of CVD was 4.8% for heart disease and 1.0% for stroke. CVD was responsible for 45.0% of overall mortality reported in the past 5 years, whereby 49% of CVD deaths occurred before the age of 65 years. Mean age of death was 62.6 years (63.6 years for heart disease and 61.4 years for stroke). Annual crude death rate due to CVD was 314 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 215-414); of these, 179 were due to heart disease, and 135 due to stroke. More men than women died from heart disease, whereas the opposite was true for stroke. Hypertension was detected in 40.6% (47.7% men, 34.9%women), obesity in 38.2% (28.8% men, 46.4% women), and smoking (cigarettes or waterpipe) in 38.7% (63.6% men, 19.2% women) of participants. Of those surveyed, 39.3% had one CVD risk factor, 27.4% had two risk factors, and 8.3% had 3 risk factors. Main predictors of clustering of risk factors were older age, male gender, and low education. CONCLUSIONS: Syria is currently undergoing a stage in which morbidity and mortality from CVD are high but likely to increase based on the population's risk profile. CVD risk distribution in Syrian society highlights the non-generalizability of CVD models from developed societies, and calls for local studies to inform effective interventions and policies.

Mortality and morbidity from coronary heart disease attributable to passive smoking.

AIMS: Passive smoking is associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). This study estimates CHD mortality and morbidity attributable to passive smoking in Germany and demonstrates variations in the number of estimated deaths depending on underlying assumptions. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prevalence of passive smoking from the German National Health Survey, CHD deaths from national mortality statistics, number of incident CHD cases, and relative risks from meta-analyses were used to estimate mortality and morbidity from passive smoking applying the concept of population attributable risk. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to investigate the impact of different assumptions in terms of exposure definition, relative risk, and population at risk on estimated mortality. Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) at home accounts for 2148 [approximate 95% confidence interval (CI) 1471-2736] deaths from CHD and 3776 (95% CI 2588-4800) incident CHD cases among non-smokers every year in Germany. In sensitivity analyses, consideration of exposure to ETS at work and at any location yielded 2597 (95% CI 1784-3295) and 8970 (95% CI 6252-11 243) attributable CHD deaths, respectively. Applying different populations at risk showed a range of 1174 (95% CI 803-1494) to 13 792 (95% CI 9655-17 225) attributable deaths from CHD. CONCLUSION: The estimated burden of passive smoking heavily depends on the definition of underlying parameters. Using an evidence-based approach reveals a substantial burden of passive smoking in terms of CHD mortality and morbidity reflected by six CHD deaths and 10 incident CHD cases every day in Germany.