Three-Month FVC Change: A Trial Endpoint for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Based on Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis.

Rationale: Novel therapies for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) are in development, but there remains uncertainty about the optimal trial endpoint. An earlier endpoint would enable assessment of a greater number of therapies in adaptive trial designs. Objectives: To determine whether short-term changes in FVC, DlCO, and six-minute-walk distance could act as surrogate endpoints to accelerate early-phase trials in IPF. Methods: Individual participant data (IPD) from IPF clinical trials were included in a two-step random-effects meta-analysis to determine whether baseline or 3-month changes in FVC, DlCO, and 6-minute-walk distance were associated with mortality or disease progression in placebo arms. Three-month and 12-month FVC decline endpoints were compared with treatment arm data from antifibrotic studies by meta-regression. Measurements and Main Results: IPD were available from 12 placebo cohorts totaling 1,819 participants, with baseline and 3-month changes in all physiological variables independently associated with poorer outcomes. Treatment data were available from six cohorts with 1,684 participants. For each 2.5% relative decline in FVC over 3 months, there was an associated 15% (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.24; I2 = 59.4%) and 20% (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.12-1.28; I2 = 18.0%) increased risk for mortality in untreated and treated individuals, respectively. An FVC change treatment effect was observed between treatment and placebo arms at 3 months (difference in FVC change of 42.9 ml; 95% CI, 24.0-61.8 ml; P < 0.001). Conclusions: IPD meta-analysis demonstrated that 3-month changes in physiological variables, particularly FVC, were associated with mortality among individuals with IPF. FVC change over 3 months may hold potential as a surrogate endpoint in IPF adaptive trials.

A systematic review of blood biomarkers with individual participant data meta-analysis of matrix metalloproteinase-7 in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Blood-derived biomarkers have been described extensively as potential prognostic markers in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but studies have been limited by analyses using data-dependent thresholds, inconsistent adjustment for confounders and an array of end-points, thus often yielding ungeneralisable results. Meta-analysis of individual participant data (IPD) is a powerful tool to overcome these limitations. Through systematic review of blood-derived biomarkers, sufficient studies with measurements of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-7 were identified to facilitate standardised analyses of the prognostic potential of this biomarker in IPF. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched on 12 November 2020 to identify prospective studies reporting outcomes in patients with untreated IPF, stratified according to at least one pre-specified biomarker, measured at either baseline, or change over 3 months. IPD were sought for studies investigating MMP-7 as a prognostic factor. The primary outcome was overall mortality according to standardised MMP-7 z-scores, with a secondary outcome of disease progression in 12 months, all adjusted for age, gender, smoking and baseline forced vital capacity. RESULTS: IPD was available for nine studies out of 12 identified, reporting outcomes from 1664 participants. Baseline MMP-7 levels were associated with increased mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.03-1.48; I2=64.3%) and disease progression (adjusted OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.11-1.46; I2=5.9%). In limited studies, 3-month change in MMP-7 was not associated with outcomes. CONCLUSION: IPD meta-analysis demonstrated that greater baseline MMP-7 levels were independently associated with an increased risk of poor outcomes in patients with untreated IPF, while short-term changes did not reflect disease progression.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of anakinra, sarilumab, siltuximab and tocilizumab for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: There is accumulating evidence for an overly activated immune response in severe COVID-19, with several studies exploring the therapeutic role of immunomodulation. Through systematic review and meta-analysis, we assess the effectiveness of specific interleukin inhibitors for the treatment of COVID-19. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched on 7 January 2021 to identify studies of immunomodulatory agents (anakinra, sarilumab, siltuximab and tocilizumab) for the treatment of COVID-19. The primary outcomes were severity on an Ordinal Scale measured at day 15 from intervention and days to hospital discharge. Key secondary endpoints included overall mortality. RESULTS: 71 studies totalling 22 058 patients were included, 6 were randomised trials. Most studies explored outcomes in patients who received tocilizumab (60/71). In prospective studies, tocilizumab was associated with improved unadjusted survival (risk ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.96, I2=0.0%), but conclusive benefit was not demonstrated for other outcomes. In retrospective studies, tocilizumab was associated with less severe outcomes on an Ordinal Scale (generalised OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.64, I2=98%) and adjusted mortality risk (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.66, I2=76.6%). The mean difference in duration of hospitalisation was 0.36 days (95% CI -0.07 to 0.80, I2=93.8%). There was substantial heterogeneity in retrospective studies, and estimates should be interpreted cautiously. Other immunomodulatory agents showed similar effects to tocilizumab, but insufficient data precluded meta-analysis by agent. CONCLUSION: Tocilizumab was associated with a lower relative risk of mortality in prospective studies, but effects were inconclusive for other outcomes. Current evidence for the efficacy of anakinra, siltuximab or sarilumab in COVID-19 is insufficient, with further studies urgently needed for conclusive findings. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020176375.

The Its Not JUST Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis Study (INJUSTIS): description of the protocol for a multicentre prospective observational cohort study identifying biomarkers of progressive fibrotic lung disease.

Introduction: The Its Not JUST Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis Study (INJUSTIS) is a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study. The aims of this study are to identify genetic, serum and other biomarkers that may identify specific molecular mechanisms, reflecting disease endotypes that are shared among patients with progressive pulmonary fibrosis regardless of aetiology. Furthermore, it is anticipated that these biomarkers will help predict fibrotic activity that may identify patterns of disease behaviour with greater accuracy than current clinical phenotyping. Methods and analysis: 200 participants with the multidisciplinary team confirmed fibrotic lung disease (50 each of rheumatoid-interstitial lung disease (ILD), asbestosis, chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis and unclassifiable ILD) and 50 idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis participants, recruited as positive controls, will be followed up for 2 years. Participants will have blood samples, lung function tests, quality of life questionnaires and a subgroup will be offered bronchoscopy. Participants will also be given the option of undertaking blinded home handheld spirometry for the first 3 months of the study. The primary end point will be identification of a biomarker that predicts disease progression, defined as 10% relative change in forced vital capacity (FVC) or death at 12 months. Ethics and dissemination: The trial has received ethical approval from the National Research Ethics Committee Nottingham (18/EM/0139). All participants must provide written informed consent. The trial will be overseen by the INJUSTIS steering group that will include a patient representative, and an independent chairperson. The results from this study will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and disseminated at regional and national conferences. Trial registration number: NCT03670576.

Steroid-induced tumour lysis syndrome in small-cell lung cancer.

A 64-year-old male presented to hospital with breathlessness and weight loss. Ultrasound-guided biopsy of supraclavicular lymph node confirmed a diagnosis of small-cell lung cancer. The patient was started on Dexamethasone 8 mg twice daily for symptom control while awaiting urgent oncology assessment. Three days later he was admitted with acute kidney injury and worsening breathlessness. Biochemical changes confirmed tumour lysis syndrome (TLS) that had occurred following steroid therapy. He was given allopurinol followed by rasburicase. His clinical condition continued to worsen and he died of multi-organ failure. To our knowledge, TLS in small-cell lung cancer solely attributed to steroid therapy has not been described before. Due to its rarity, physicians have a very low index of suspicion of TLS in lung cancer when prescribing corticosteroids for palliation of symptoms. Patients with risk factors should be identified and baseline blood tests performed and appropriate prophylaxis commenced.