Trend and projection of non-communicable diseases risk factors in Iran from 2001 to 2030.

This study aims to investigate the trends and project the major risk factors of Non-communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Iran. We obtained the trend of prevalence of main risk factors related to NCDs in 30 to 70-year-old-individuals. The data were extracted from WHO STEP wise approach to NCDs risk factor surveillance (STEPS) survey. Also,the previous studies conducted at national and subnational levels from 2001 to 2016 were employed. The prevalence of risk factors was projected by 2030 using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Spatio-temporal model stratified by sex and province. The percent change for the age-standardized prevalence of smoking in men between 2001 and 2016 was calculated to be - 27.0. Also, the corresponding values for the risk factors of diabetes, hypertension, obesity and overweight, physical inactivity (PI), and mean of salt intake were - 26.1, 29.0, 70.0, 96.8, 116.6, and 7.5, respectively. It is predicted that smoking and these risk factors will undergo a change to show values of - 1.26, 38.7, 43.7, 2.36, and 15.3 by 2030, respectively. The corresponding values in women for the time interval of 2001-2016 were - 27.3, 26.3, 82.8, 1.88, 75.2, and 4.2, respectively. Plus, projections indicate that the 2030 variation values are expected to be - 25.0, 16.7, 37.5, 28.7, 26.7, and 10.9 respectively. This study showed that the prevalence of four risk factors of PI, overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes is increasing in Iran. Therefor, it is necessary to carry out effective interventions to adopt a healthy lifestyle and reduce the risk factors.

Determinants of multimorbidity in older adults in Iran: a cross-sectional study using latent class analysis on the Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Multimorbidity, defined as the presence of two or more long-term health conditions in an individual, is one of the most significant challenges facing health systems worldwide. This study aimed to identify determinants of classes of multimorbidity among older adults in Iran. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In a cross-sectional sample of older adults (aged ≥ 60 years) from the second stage of the Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program in southern Iran, latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify patterns of multimorbidity. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to investigate factors associated with each multimorbidity class, including age, gender, education, household income, physical activity, smoking status, and polypharmacy. RESULTS: In 2,426 study participants (mean age 69 years, 52% female), the overall prevalence of multimorbidity was 80.2%. Among those with multimorbidity, 3 latent classes were identified. These comprised: class 1, individuals with a low burden of multisystem disease (56.9%); class 2, individuals with predominantly cardiovascular-metabolic disorders (25.8%) and class 3, individuals with predominantly cognitive and metabolic disorders (17.1%). Compared with men, women were more likely to belong to class 2 (odds ratio [OR] 1.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.52-2.54) and class 3 (OR 4.52, 95% CI 3.22-6.35). Polypharmacy was associated with membership class 2 (OR 3.52, 95% CI: 2.65-4.68) and class 3 (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.28-2.63). Smoking was associated with membership in class 3 (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.01-2.08). Individuals with higher education levels (59%) and higher levels of physical activity (39%) were less likely to belong to class 3 (OR 0.41; 95% CI: 0.28-0.62) and to class 2 (OR 0.61; 95% CI: 0.38-0.97), respectively. Those at older age were less likely to belong to class 2 (OR 0.95). DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: A large proportion of older adults in Iran have multimorbidity. Female sex, polypharmacy, sedentary lifestyle, and poor education levels were associated with cardiovascular-metabolic multimorbidity and cognitive and metabolic multimorbidity. A greater understanding of the determinants of multimorbidity may lead to strategies to prevent its development.

Ambient air pollutants and breast cancer stage in Tehran, Iran.

This study aimed to examine the impacts of single and multiple air pollutants (AP) on the severity of breast cancer (BC). Data of 1148 diagnosed BC cases (2008-2016) were obtained from the Cancer Research Center and private oncologist offices in Tehran, Iran. Ambient PM10, SO2, NO, NO2, NOX, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m-xylene, p-xylene, o-xylene, and BTEX data were obtained from previously developed land use regression models. Associations between pollutants and stage of BC were assessed by multinomial logistic regression models. An increase of 10 µg/m3 in ethylbenzene, o-xylene, m-xylene, and 10 ppb of NO corresponded to 10.41 (95% CI 1.32-82.41), 4.07 (1.46-11.33), 2.89 (1.08-7.73) and 1.08 (1.00-1.15) increase in the odds of stage I versus non-invasive BC, respectively. Benzene (OR, odds ratio = 1.16, 95% CI 1.01-1.33) and o-xylene (OR = 1.18, 1.02-1.38) were associated with increased odds of incidence of BC stages III & IV versus non-invasive stages. BC stage I and stage III&IV in women living in low SES areas was associated with significantly higher levels of benzene, ethylbenzene, o-xylene, and m-xylene. The highest multiple-air-pollutants quartile was associated with a higher odds of stage I BC (OR = 3.16) in patients under 50 years old. This study provides evidence that exposure to AP is associated with increased BC stage at diagnosis, especially under premenopause age.

A registration trend in eyelid skin cancers and associated risk factors in Iran, 2005-2016.

BACKGROUND: Eyelid skin cancers are the most prevalent ophthalmic malignancies. This study aimed to evaluate the association of the Human Development Index (HDI) and lifestyle risk factors with eyelid skin cancers in Iran. METHODS: This ecological study analyzed the data collected from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (2005-2016). The data on provincial-level eyelid skin cancer risk factors were obtained from national sources. The association between provincial HDI and lifestyle risk factors with the prevalence of eyelid skin cancers was assessed. RESULTS: The mean 12-year age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of eyelid skin cancers was 16.22 per 100,000 (9,104 cases). The overall ASIR showed an upward trend with an estimated annual average increase of 0.006 per year. There were positive correlations between the prevalence of overall eyelid skin cancers and provincial HDI, smoking, and obesity (r = 0.32, 0.42, and 0.37, respectively). In multivariate analysis, obesity/overweight remained a positive predictor for high prevalence of total eyelid skin cancers (OR = 1.97, 95%CI = 1.08-3.58, P = 0.026), carcinoma (2.10, 1.15-3.83, P = 0.015), and basal cell carcinoma (1.48, 0.99-2.20, P = 0.054). CONCLUSIONS: An increasing trend in ASIR of eyelid skin cancers was observed in more than a decade in Iran which was positively associated with provincial HDI and prevalence of obesity. The findings of the study highlight the importance of promotional programs for preventing obesity/overweight and appropriate allocation of screening facilities based on the HDI level.

A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis of ocular cancer secular trends in Iran from 2004 to 2016.

Investigating secular trends of ocular cancer registration in Iran. After acquiring Iranian national population-based cancer registry data, trends of age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) of ocular cancers and annual percent changes (APC) between 2004 and 2016 were analysed in age groups, gender, topography and morphology types with joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period, and cohort effects on incidence rates were estimated by age-period-cohort model. Geographic distribution of ASIR was assessed using GIS. Overall ASIR of ocular cancers was 16.04/100,000 (95% CI 15.77-16.32). Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant increase of ASIR between 2004 and 2009 for males (APC = 5.5, 95% CI 0.9-10.2), ages over 50 years (APC = 5.2, 1.2-9.4), skin/canthus/adnexal cancers (APC = 4.2, 0.8-7.7), and carcinomas/adenocarcinomas (APC = 4.3, 0.6-8.1); however, between 2009 and 2016 a declining trend was observed in all investigated variables. ASIR of retinoblastoma was significantly increased (averaged APC = 20.7, 9-33.7) between 2004 and 2016. age-period-cohort analyses showed that incidence rates of ocular cancers significantly increased with aging, time periods, and birth cohort effects (p < 0.001). ASIR varied from 6.7/100,000 to 21.7/100,000 in Iran. Excepting retinoblastoma, all ocular cancer incidence trends were downward over a 13-year period; however, it was increasing between 2004 and 2009 cancer. ASIR was significant aging in Iran.

Mortality and disability-adjusted life years for smoking-attributed cancers from 1990 to 2019 in the north Africa and middle east countries: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019.

AIM AND BACKGROUND: Smoking is a modifiable risk factor for cancers. The aim of the study is to estimate the trend of mortality and DALYs of smoking-attributed cancers in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) countries. METHODS: In this study, estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD-2019) study were used to report the mortality and DALYs for 16 smoking-attributed cancers. The mortality and DALYs rates from smoking-attributed cancers were evaluated by age, sex, and the 21 countries of the NAME countries from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: Age standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for the 29 smoking-attributed cancers in the NAME countries in 1990 and 2019 were estimated to be 24.7 (95% Uncertainty Interval: 21.5, 27.8) and 22.4 (95%UI: 19.8, 25.4) respectively, which shows a 9.2% decrease in the three decades. DALYs/100,000 for smoking-attributed cancers was, also, estimated to be 600.3 (95%UI: 521.6, 682.6) and 515.6 (95%UI: 454.9, 585.4) respectively, which indicates a 14.1% decreased in these three decades. In the last three decades, the percentage changes in DALYs/100,000 for smoking-attributed cancers in males and females were - 0.16 and - 0.03, respectively. Plus, The percentage changes in ASMR in males and females were - 12% and 8%, respectively. Furthermore, The highest ASMR and DALYs were observed in Lebanon, Turkey, and Palestine in 2019. CONCLUSION: The mortality rates of cancers from smoking have increased substantially among females, in most countries of the NAME region, in recent years. The burden caused by smoking can be reduced through modifying lifestyle and applying strict laws on smoking by governments and policymakers.

Artificial intelligence in screening, diagnosis, and classification of diabetic macular edema: A systematic review.

We review the application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in the screening, diagnosis, and classification of diabetic macular edema (DME) by searching six databases- PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Science Direct, IEEE, and ACM- from January 1, 2005 to July 4, 2021. A total of 879 articles were extracted, and by applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, 38 articles were selected for more evaluation. The methodological quality of included studies was evaluated using the Quality Assessment for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2). We provide an overview of the current state of various AI techniques for DME screening, diagnosis, and classification using retinal imaging modalities such as optical coherence tomography (OCT) and color fundus photography (CFP). Based on our findings, deep learning models have an extraordinary capacity to provide an accurate and efficient system for DME screening and diagnosis. Using these in the processing of modalities leads to a significant increase in sensitivity and specificity values. The use of decision support systems and applications based on AI in processing retinal images provided by OCT and CFP increases the sensitivity and specificity in DME screening and detection.

Multiple air pollutants exposure and leukaemia incidence in Tehran, Iran from 2010 to 2016: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Leukaemia is one of the most common cancers and may be associated with exposure to environmental carcinogens, especially outdoor air pollutants. The objective of this study was to investigate the association of ambient air pollution and leukaemia in Tehran, Iran. DESIGN: In this retrospective cohort study, data about the residential district of leukaemia cases diagnosed from 2010 to 2016 were inquired from the Ministry of Health cancer database. Data from a previous study were used to determine long-term average exposure to different air pollutants in 22 districts of Tehran. Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to classify pollutants in two exposure profiles. The association between air pollutants and leukaemia incidence was analysed by negative binomial regression. SETTING: Twenty-two districts of Tehran megacity. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with leukaemia. OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome variables were incidence rate ratios (IRR) of acute myeloid and lymphoid leukaemia across the districts of Tehran. RESULTS: The districts with higher concentrations for all pollutants were near the city centre. The IRR was positive but non-significant for most of the air pollutants. However, annual mean NOx was directly and significantly associated with total leukaemia incidence in the fully adjusted model (IRR (95% CI): 1.03 (1.003 to 1.06) per 10 ppb increase). Based on LPA, districts with a higher multiple air-pollutants profile were also associated with higher leukaemia incidence (IRR (95% CI): 1.003 (0.99 to 1.007) per 1 ppb increase). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that districts with higher air pollution (nitrogen oxides and multipollutants) have higher incidence rates of leukaemia in Tehran, Iran. This study warrants conducting further research with individual human data and better control of confounding.

Multiple air pollutant exposure and lung cancer in Tehran, Iran.

Lung cancer is the most rapidly increasing malignancy worldwide with an estimated 2.1 million cancer cases in the latest, 2018 World Health Organization (WHO) report. The objective of this study was to investigate the association of air pollution and lung cancer, in Tehran, Iran. Residential area information of the latest registered lung cancer cases that were diagnosed between 2014 and 2016 (N = 1,850) were inquired from the population-based cancer registry of Tehran. Long-term average exposure to PM10, SO2, NO, NO2, NOX, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m-xylene, p-xylene, o-xylene (BTEX), and BTEX in 22 districts of Tehran were estimated using land use regression models. Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to generate multi-pollutant exposure profiles. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to examine the association between air pollutants and lung cancer incidence. The districts with higher concentrations for all pollutants were mostly in downtown and around the railway station. Districts with a higher concentration for NOx (IRR = 1.05, for each 10 unit increase in air pollutant), benzene (IRR = 3.86), toluene (IRR = 1.50), ethylbenzene (IRR = 5.16), p-xylene (IRR = 9.41), o-xylene (IRR = 7.93), m-xylene (IRR = 2.63) and TBTEX (IRR = 1.21) were significantly associated with higher lung cancer incidence. Districts with a higher multiple air-pollution profile were also associated with more lung cancer incidence (IRR = 1.01). Our study shows a positive association between air pollution and lung cancer incidence. This association was stronger for, respectively, p-xylene, o-xylene, ethylbenzene, benzene, m-xylene and toluene.

The patterns of Non-communicable disease Multimorbidity in Iran: A Multilevel Analysis.

The prevalence of non-communicable diseases is increasing worldwide. Multimorbidity and long-term medical conditions is common among these patients. This study aimed to investigate the patterns of non-communicable disease multimorbidity and their risk factors at the individual and aggregated level. Data was inquired from the nationwide survey performed in 2011, according to the WHO stepwise approach on NCD risk factors. A latent class analysis on multimorbidity components (11 chronic diseases) was performed and the association of some individual and aggregated risk factors (urbanization) with the latent subclasses was accessed using multilevel multinomial logistic regression. Latent class analysis revealed four distinct subclasses of multimorbidity among the Iranian population (10069 participants). Musculoskeletal diseases and asthma classes were seen in both genders. In males, the odds of membership in the diabetes class was 41% less by increasing physical activity; but with increased BMI, the odds of membership in the diabetes class was 1.90 times higher. Tobacco smoking increased the odds of membership in the musculoskeletal diseases class, 1.37 and 2.30 times for males and females, respectively. Increased BMI and low education increased the chances of females' membership in all subclasses of multimorbidity. At the province level, with increase in urbanization, the odds of membership in the diabetes class was 1.28 times higher among males (P = 0.027). Increased age, higher BMI, tobacco smoking and low education are the most important risk factors associated with NCD multimorbidity among Iranians. Interventions and policies should be implemented to control these risk factors.

Association of cigarette smoking, obesity, and underlying medical conditions with COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality in Iran: A nationwide retrospective ecological study.

Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in a considerable number of deaths worldwide. This ecological study aimed to explore the relationship between COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality with smoking, obesity, and underlying conditions in Iran. Methods: Provincial-level COVID-19 data were obtained from the official reports. Two outcomes were assessed: the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Data on underlying health conditions, cigarette smoking, and obesity were obtained from national surveys. Negative binomial regression was used to report incident rate (IRR) ratios. Results: As of April 22, 2020, a total number of 43 950 lab-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations and 5391confirmed COVID-19 deaths were officially reported. Adjusting for underdetection to cover the number of clinically-confirmed COVID-19 cases, a total of 76 962 additional hospitalizations (ie, total lab- and clinically-confirmed hospitalizations = 120 912; 175% increase) and 7558 additional deaths (ie, total lab- and clinically-confirmed deaths = 12 949; 140% increase) were estimated during the same period. Provinces with a higher prevalence of obesity (IRR: 2.75, 95% CI: 1.49, 5.10), cigarette smoking (1.81; 95% CI: 1.01, 3.27), hypertension (1.88; 95% CI: 1.03, 3.44), and diabetes mellitus (1.74; 95% CI: 0.96, 3.16) had a higher likelihood of COVID-19 death rates. Conclusion: Inequality in COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality was observed in provinces whose populations had underlying diseases, in particular, obesity, cigarette smoking, hypertension, and diabetes.