Cost-effectiveness of nivolumab versus surveillance for the adjuvant treatment of patients with urothelial carcinoma who are at high risk of recurrence: a US payer perspective.

AIM: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant nivolumab compared with surveillance for the treatment of patients with high-risk muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma (MIUC) after radical resection from a US healthcare payer perspective and to investigate the impact of alternative modeling approaches on the cost-effectiveness results. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A four-state, semi-Markov model consisting of disease free, local recurrence, distant recurrence, and death health states was developed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab compared with surveillance over a 30-year time horizon. The model used data from the randomized CheckMate 274 trial (NCT02632409) and published literature to inform transitions among health states, and inputs on cost, utility, adverse event, and disease management. Scenario analyses were conducted to investigate the impact of model structure and key assumptions on the results. One-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted to investigate the robustness of the results. RESULTS: Total expected costs were higher with nivolumab ($162,278) compared with surveillance ($63,027). Nivolumab was associated with improved survival (1.61 life-years gained compared with surveillance) and an incremental gain of 0.98 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Although total treatment costs were higher for nivolumab, cost offsets were observed because of delayed or avoided recurrences and deaths experienced with nivolumab compared with observation. The incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility ratios were $61,462/life-year and $100,930/QALY. LIMITATIONS: At the time of analysis, CheckMate 274 had limited follow-up on disease-free survival and no overall survival data. The limited evidence necessitated assumptions on modeling survival after each type of recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Nivolumab is estimated to be a life-extending and cost-effective option for adjuvant treatment of MIUC for patients who are at high risk of recurrence after undergoing radical resection in the United States. Using a threshold of $150,000/QALY, the cost-effectiveness conclusions remained consistent across the scenario and sensitivity analyses conducted.

Challenges, considerations, and approaches for developing a cost-effectiveness model for the adjuvant treatment of muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma: with a spotlight on nivolumab versus placebo.

AIMS: To present alternative approaches related to both structural assumptions and data sources for the development of a decision analytic model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant nivolumab compared with surveillance in patients with high-risk muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma (MIUC) after radical resection. METHODS AND RESULTS: Alternative approaches related to both structural assumptions and data sources are presented to address challenges and data gaps, as well as discussion of strengths and limitations of each approach. Specifically, challenges and considerations related to the following are presented: (1) selection of a modeling approach (partitioned survival model or state transition model) given the available evidence, (2) choice of health state structure (three- or four-state) to model disease progression and subsequent therapy, (3) modeling of outcomes from subsequent therapy using tunnel states to account for time-dependent transition probabilities or absorbing health states with one-off costs and outcomes applied, and (4) methods for modeling health-state transitions in a setting where treatment has curative intent and available survival data are immature. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple considerations must be taken into account when developing an economic model for new, emerging oncology treatments in early lines of therapy, all of which can affect the model's overall ability to estimate (quality-adjusted) survival benefits over a lifetime horizon. This paper identifies a series of key structural and analytic considerations regarding modeling of nivolumab treatment in the adjuvant MIUC setting. Several alternative approaches with regard to structure and data have been included in a flexible cost-effectiveness model so the impact of the alternative approaches on model results can be explored. The impact of these alternative approaches on cost-effectiveness results are presented in a companion article. Our findings may also help inform the development of future models for other treatments and settings in early-stage cancer.

Challenges in conducting fractional polynomial and standard parametric network meta-analyses of immune checkpoint inhibitors for first-line advanced renal cell carcinoma.

Aim: Network meta-analyses (NMAs) increasingly feature time-varying hazards to account for non-proportional hazards between different drug classes. This paper outlines an algorithm for selecting clinically plausible fractional polynomial NMA models. Methods: The NMA of four immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) + tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and one TKI therapy for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) served as case study. Overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) data were reconstructed from the literature, 46 models were fitted. The algorithm entailed a-priori face validity criteria for survival and hazards, based on clinical expert input, and predictive accuracy against trial data. Selected models were compared with statistically best-fitting models. Results: Three valid PFS and two OS models were identified. All models overestimated PFS, the OS model featured crossing ICI + TKI versus TKI curves as per expert opinion. Conventionally selected models showed implausible survival. Conclusion: The selection algorithm considering face validity, predictive accuracy, and expert opinion improved the clinical plausibility of first-line RCC survival models.

Cost-Utility of Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab in First-Line Treatment of Advanced Melanoma in the United States: An Analysis Using Long-Term Overall Survival Data from Checkmate 067.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-utility of nivolumab plus ipilimumab (NIVO + IPI) versus other first-line therapies for advanced melanoma in the United States (US) from the third-party payer perspective. METHODS: This analysis estimated total expected life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs), and costs for first-line treatments of advanced melanoma during a 30-year time horizon using indirect treatment comparisons based on time-varying hazard ratios (HRs) and a three-state partitioned survival model. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival reference curves were extrapolated based on 5-year follow-up from the phase III Checkmate 067 trial (NCT01844505). Comparators of NIVO + IPI were NIVO, IPI, pembrolizumab, dabrafenib plus trametinib, encorafenib plus binimetinib (ENCO + BINI), and vemurafenib plus cobimetinib. Drug acquisition costs, treatment administration costs, follow-up time, subsequent therapy data, and adverse event frequencies were obtained from published sources. Utility weights were estimated from Checkmate 067, which compared NIVO + IPI or NIVO monotherapy with IPI monotherapy as first-line therapy in advanced melanoma. A 3% annual discount rate was applied to costs and outcomes. Sensitivity scenarios for BRAF-mutant subgroups were conducted. RESULTS: NIVO + IPI was estimated to generate the longest OS and the highest total costs versus all comparators, accruing 6.99 LYs, 5.70 QALYs, and $469,469 over the 30-year time horizon. The incremental cost utility of NIVO + IPI versus comparators ranged from $2130 per QALY (versus ENCO + BINI) to $76,169 per QALY (versus NIVO). In all base-case and most sensitivity analyses, the incremental cost-utility ratios for NIVO + IPI were below $100,000 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: NIVO + IPI is estimated to be a life-extending and cost-effective treatment versus other therapies in the US, with base-case incremental cost-utility ratios below $100,000 per QALY.

Disease-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in adults with resectable esophageal or gastroesophageal junction cancer: A correlation meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate disease-free survival (DFS) as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) using aggregate-level data from resectable esophageal or gastroesophageal junction cancer (EC/GEJC) trials assessing therapies in (neo)adjuvant and perioperative settings. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify trials reporting OS and DFS, or compatible progression-free survival (PFS). Bivariate random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate correlation between the treatment effects on DFS/PFS and OS, and weighted linear regression models assuming trial sample sizes as weights were used to estimate surrogacy equations. The primary analysis consisted of trials across all treatment settings, and secondary analysis consisted of trials only in the adjuvant setting. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) was performed to measure the stability and predictive accuracy of the surrogacy equations while surrogate threshold effects (STE)-the minimum treatment effect on DFS/PFS that would translate into a positive OS benefit-were derived to measure their usefulness. RESULTS: The primary analysis included 26 trials. The estimated correlation coefficient between the hazard ratio (HR) of DFS/PFS (HRDFS/PFS) and HR of OS (HROS) was 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.70-0.90). The estimated surrogacy equation was log(HROS) = 0.80 × log(HRDFS/PFS) with a corresponding STE of 0.82. Reported HROS was within the 95% prediction interval of the predicted HROS from the model for more than 95% of the trials in the LOOCV, indicating a valid model. Secondary analysis included 7 trials with an estimated correlation coefficient of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.18-0.95). Through LOOCV, the surrogacy equation in the adjuvant setting was deemed valid. CONCLUSIONS: Our meta-analysis suggests that HRDFS/PFS -where DFS/PFS is defined as time from resection to disease recurrence (local, locoregional, or distant) or death-is correlated to HROS, and a valid and useful surrogate predictor for HROS in the neoadjuvant, perioperative, or adjuvant settings.

Heterogeneity in Survival with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors and Its Implications for Survival Extrapolations: A Case Study in Advanced Melanoma.

Background: Survival heterogeneity and limited trial follow-up present challenges for estimating lifetime benefits of oncology therapies. This study used CheckMate 067 (NCT01844505) extended follow-up data to assess the predictive accuracy of standard parametric and flexible models in estimating the long-term overall survival benefit of nivolumab plus ipilimumab (an immune checkpoint inhibitor combination) in advanced melanoma. Methods: Six sets of survival models (standard parametric, piecewise, cubic spline, mixture cure, parametric mixture, and landmark response models) were independently fitted to overall survival data for treatments in CheckMate 067 (nivolumab plus ipilimumab, nivolumab, and ipilimumab) using successive data cuts (28, 40, 52, and 60 mo). Standard parametric models allow survival extrapolation in the absence of a complex hazard. Piecewise and cubic spline models allow additional flexibility in fitting the hazard function. Mixture cure, parametric mixture, and landmark response models provide flexibility by explicitly incorporating survival heterogeneity. Sixty-month follow-up data, external ipilimumab data, and clinical expert opinion were used to evaluate model estimation accuracy. Lifetime survival projections were compared using a 5% discount rate. Results: Standard parametric, piecewise, and cubic spline models underestimated overall survival at 60 mo for the 28-mo data cut. Compared with other models, mixture cure, parametric mixture, and landmark response models provided more accurate long-term overall survival estimates versus external data, higher mean survival benefit over 20 y for the 28-mo data cut, and more consistent 20-y mean overall survival estimates across data cuts. Conclusion: This case study demonstrates that survival models explicitly incorporating survival heterogeneity showed greater accuracy for early data cuts than standard parametric models did, consistent with similar immune checkpoint inhibitor survival validation studies in advanced melanoma. Research is required to assess generalizability to other tumors and disease stages. Highlights: Given that short clinical trial follow-up periods and survival heterogeneity introduce uncertainty in the health technology assessment of oncology therapies, this study evaluated the suitability of conventional parametric survival modeling approaches as compared with more flexible models in the context of immune checkpoint inhibitors that have the potential to provide lasting survival benefits.This study used extended follow-up data from the phase III CheckMate 067 trial (NCT01844505) to assess the predictive accuracy of standard parametric models in comparison with more flexible methods for estimating the long-term survival benefit of the immune checkpoint inhibitor combination of nivolumab plus ipilimumab in advanced melanoma.Mixture cure, parametric mixture, and landmark response models provided more accurate estimates of long-term overall survival versus external data than other models tested.In this case study with immune checkpoint inhibitor therapies in advanced melanoma, extrapolation models that explicitly incorporate differences in cancer survival between observed or latent subgroups showed greater accuracy with both early and later data cuts than other approaches did.

What Did Time Tell Us? A Comparison and Retrospective Validation of Different Survival Extrapolation Methods for Immuno-Oncologic Therapy in Advanced or Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The immuno-oncologic (IO) mechanism of action may lead to an overall survival (OS) hazard that changes over time, producing shapes that standard parametric extrapolation methods may struggle to reflect. Furthermore, selection of the most appropriate extrapolation method for health technology assessment is often based on trial data with limited follow-up. OBJECTIVE: To examine this problem, we fitted a range of extrapolation methods to patient-level survival data from CheckMate 025 (NCT01668784, CM-025), a phase III trial comparing nivolumab with everolimus for previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma (aRCC), to assess their predictive accuracy over time. METHODS: Six extrapolation methods were examined: standard parametric models, natural cubic splines, piecewise models combining Kaplan-Meier data with an exponential or non-exponential distribution, response-based landmark models, and parametric mixture models. We produced three database locks (DBLs) at minimum follow-ups of 15, 27, and 39 months to align with previously published CM-025 data. A three-step evaluation process was adopted: (1) selection of the distribution family for each method in each of the three DBLs, (2) internal validation comparing extrapolation-based landmark and mean survival with the latest CM-025 dataset (minimum follow-up, 64 months), and (3) external validation of survival projections using clinical expert opinion and long-term follow-up data from other nivolumab studies in aRCC (CheckMate 003 and CheckMate 010). RESULTS: All extrapolation methods, with the exception of mixture models, underestimated landmark and mean OS for nivolumab compared with CM-025 long-term follow-up data. OS estimates for everolimus tended to be more accurate, with four of the six methods providing landmark OS estimates within the 95% confidence interval of observed OS as per the latest dataset. The predictive accuracy of survival extrapolation methods fitted to nivolumab also showed greater variation than for everolimus. The proportional hazards assumption held for all DBLs, and a dependent log-logistic model provided reliable estimates of longer-term survival for both nivolumab and everolimus across the DBLs. Although mixture models and response-based landmark models provided reasonable estimates of OS based on the 39-month DBL, this was not the case for the two earlier DBLs. The piecewise exponential models consistently underestimated OS for both nivolumab and everolimus at clinically meaningful pre-specified landmark time points. CONCLUSIONS: This aRCC case study identified marked differences in the predictive accuracy of survival extrapolation methods for nivolumab but less so for everolimus. The dependent log-logistic model did not suffer from overfitting to early DBLs to the same extent as more complex methods. Methods that provide more degrees of freedom may accurately represent survival for IO therapy, particularly if data are more mature or external data are available to inform the long-term extrapolations.

Comparative Effectiveness of Up To Three Lines of Chemotherapy Treatment Plans for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.

Modern chemotherapy agents transformed standard care for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) but raised concerns about the financial burden of the disease. We studied comparative effectiveness of treatment plans that involve up to three lines of therapies and impact of treatment sequencing on health and cost outcomes. We employed a Markov model to represent the dynamically changing health status of mCRC patients and used Monte-Carlo simulation to evaluate various treatment plans consistent with existing guidelines. We calibrated our model by a meta-analysis of published data from an extensive list of clinical trials and measured the effectiveness of each plan in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year. We examined the sensitivity of our model and results with respect to key parameters in two scenarios serving as base case and worst case for patients' overall and progression-free survivals. The derived efficient frontiers included seven and five treatment plans in base case and worst case, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) ranged between $26,260 and $152,530 when the treatment plans on the efficient frontiers were compared against the least costly efficient plan in the base case, and between $21,256 and $60,040 in the worst case. All efficient plans were expected to lead to fewer than 2.5 adverse effects and on average successive adverse effects were spaced more than 9 weeks apart from each other in the base case. Based on ICER, all efficient treatment plans exhibit at least 87% chance of being efficient. Sensitivity analyses show that the ICERs were most dependent on drug acquisition cost, distributions of progression-free and overall survivals, and health utilities. We conclude that improvements in health outcomes may come at high incremental costs and are highly dependent in the order treatments are administered.

Does probe's eye subthalamic nucleus length on T2W MRI correspond with microelectrode recording in patients with deep brain stimulation for advanced Parkinson's disease?

AIM: Subthalamic nucleus (STN) deep brain stimulation (DBS) has become a well-accepted treatment for patients with advanced Parkinson's disease (PD). During surgical planning for DBS, the length of the STN is taken into account and verified during microelectrode recording (MER) intraoperatively. Here, we addressed the question to which extent the length of the STN measured with the T2 weighted MRI in the probe's eye view corresponded with the intraoperatively determined length of the STN with MER. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We included 10 consecutive Parkinson's disease patients who underwent STN DBS surgery. The length of the STN in the probe's eye view mode was calculated along the trajectory of the central MER electrode crossing the STN. RESULTS: Our analysis showed no statistical difference between the length of the STN measured with the T2 weighted probe's eye view mode and the MER (right STN length 5.8 ± 0.9 mm MRI vs. 6.3 ± 0.5 mm MER, p > 0.05; left STN length 5.6 ± 0.4 mm MRI vs 5.8 ± 1 mm MER, p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: This means that the entry and the exit of the STN can be adequately estimated using the probe's eye view preoperatively.

Conversion of local anesthesia-guided deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus to general anesthesia.

BACKGROUND: Deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) is a widely applied procedure in the treatment of patients with advanced Parkinson disease and is generally performed under local anesthesia. Here we report our experience with the conversion to general anesthesia in two patients with advanced Parkinson disease because of fear reactions intraoperatively. CASE DESCRIPTION: Patients received general anesthesia with propofol and were implanted with electrodes at the level of STN guided by multiple-microelectrode electrophysiological recordings after obtaining informed consent. During the recordings the propofol levels were reduced. Postoperative clinical assessments showed marked improvements of motor disability with significant reductions of dopaminergic medication. CONCLUSION: Our case observations document the possibility of fear reactions intraoperatively and show the possibility of conversion to general anesthesia with a successful outcome.

Use of artificial neural network in differentiation of subgroups of temporomandibular internal derangements: a preliminary study.

PURPOSE: Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been developed in the past few decades for many different applications in medical science and in biomedical research. The use of neural networks in oral and maxillofacial surgery is limited. The aim of this study was to determine the use of ANNs for the prediction of 2 subgroups of temporomandibular joint (TMJ) internal derangements (IDs) and normal joints using characteristic clinical signs and symptoms of the diseases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinical symptoms and diagnoses of 161 patients with TMJ ID were considered the gold standard and were employed to train a neural network. After the training process, the symptoms and diagnoses of 58 new patients were used to verify the network's ability to diagnose. The diagnoses obtained from ANNs were compared with diagnoses of a surgeon experienced in temporomandibular disorders. The sensitivity and specificity of ANNs in predicting subtypes of TMJ ID were evaluated using clinical diagnosis as the gold standard. RESULTS: Eight cases evaluated as bilaterally normal in clinical examination were evaluated as normal by ANN. In detecting unilateral anterior disc displacement with reduction (ADDwR; clicking), the sensitivity and specificity of ANN were 80% and 95%, respectively. In detecting unilateral anterior disc displacement without reduction (ADDwoR; locking), the sensitivity and specificity of ANN were 69% and 91%, respectively. In detecting bilateral ADDwoR, the sensitivity and specificity of ANN were 37% and 100%, respectively. In detecting bilateral ADDwR, the sensitivity and specificity of ANN were 100% and 89%, respectively. In detecting cases of ADDwR at 1 side and ADDwoR at the other side, the sensitivity and specificity of ANN were 44% and 93%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The application of ANNs for diagnosis of subtypes of TMJ IDs may be a useful supportive diagnostic method, especially for dental practitioners. Further research, including advanced network models that use clinical data and radiographic images, is recommended.

Peripheral giant cell granuloma associated with dental implants: a rare case report.

The peripheral giant cell granuloma is a benign reactive exophytic lesion of unknown etiology occurring on the gingiva and alveolar ridge. Different local causal factors have been associated with this type of lesion. Although peripheral giant cell granuloma is the most common giant cell lesion of the jaws, it is rarely seen in association with implants. This report discusses the etiology and management of a peripheral giant cell granuloma around dental implants in a 60-year-old woman. A new implant-supported prosthesis with adequate marginal adaptation between the restoration and abutments was made. There were no complications during 1 year of clinical and radiologic follow-up.

Regional odontodysplasia of the deciduous and permanent teeth associated with eruption disorders: A case report.

Regional odontodysplasia (RO) is an unusual, non-hereditary anomaly of the dental hard tissues with characteristic clinical, radiographic and histological findings. Clinically, RO affects the primary and permanent dentition in the maxilla and mandible or both jaws. Radiographically, there is a lack of contrast between the enamel dentin, both of which are less radiopaque than unaffected counterparts. Additionally, enamel and dentin layers are thin, giving the teeth a "ghost-like" appearance. Histologically, areas of hypocalcified enamel are visible and enamel prisms appear irregular in direction. Coronal dentin is fibrous, consisting of clefts and a reduced number of dentinal tubules; radicular dentin is generally more normal in structure and calcification. The RO etiology is uncertain; numerous factors have been suggested and considered as local trauma, irradiation, hypophosphatasia, hypocalcemia, hyperpyrexia. The treatment of RO has given rise to controversy. These cases require a continuous and multidisciplinary approach. Most clinicians advocate extracting the affected teeth as soon as possible and inserting a prosthetic replacement. Other clinicians prefer restorative procedures, if possible, to protect the affected erupted teeth. A case of RO in an 8 year-old male whose chief complaint was the absence of eruption of permanent teeth is presented. Clinical, radiographic and histological findings are described.

Hormone replacement therapy and cognitive function in postmenopausal women.

OBJECTIVES: The study investigated the effect of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on cognitive processes in healthy, naturally postmenopausal women. METHOD: Participants were 64 volunteer postmenopausal women (27 in HRT, 37 in non-HRT group). Groups were matched for age, level of education and postmenopausal period. Duration of HRT was more than 12 months. Cognitive processes were measured through 44 scores obtained from Wechsler Memory Scale-Revised, Line Orientation Test, Cancellation Test and Raven Standard Progressive Matrices. All of these tests had been studied with respect to their psychometric properties in the Turkish culture [for review, Karakas S. BILNOT battery: research and development of neuropsychological tests. Ankara, Turkey: Dizayn Ofset; 2004]. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis of variance was performed where HRT and estradiol level were predictive (independent) variables and test scores were predicted (dependent) variables. The studied variables did not have a significant effect on a broad spectrum of neuropsychological scores that measured immediate and delayed visual and verbal memory, visuospatial perception and orientation, sustained attention/vigilance, visual search and scan, impulsivity and response speed, executive functions and general intelligence. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated a prediction rate of 86.89% of HRT status; the model was, however, based on four scores whose scientific relevance could not at this point be ascertained. CONCLUSION: The research design of the present observational study applied control techniques to demographic (age, level of education), menopausal (length of menopausal period, duration of HRT), and hormonal variables. The cognitive changes that some studies found concerning the effect of replacement therapy could not be found when the potentially confounding variables were thus controlled.