RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: MELD attempts to objectively predict the risk of mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis and is commonly used to prioritize organ allocation. Despite the usefulness of the MELD, updated metrics could further improve the accuracy of estimates of survival. AIMS: To assess and compare the prognostic ability of an enzymatic 13C-based liver function test (LiMAx) and distinct markers of liver function to predict 3-month mortality of patients with chronic liver failure. METHODS: We prospectively investigated liver function of 268 chronic liver failure patients without hepatocellular carcinoma. Primary study endpoint was liver-related death within 3 months of follow-up. Prognostic values were calculated using Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The Cox proportional hazard model indicated that LiMAx (p < 0.001) and serum creatinine values (p < 0.001) were the significant parameters independently associated with the risk of liver failure-related death. Logistic regression analysis revealed LiMAx and serum creatinine to be independent predictors of mortality. Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for MELD (0.86 [0.80-0.92]) and for a combined score of LiMAx and serum creatinine (0.83 [0.76-0.90]) were comparable. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from serum creatinine levels, enzymatic liver function measured by LiMAx was found to be an independent predictor of short-term mortality risk in patients with liver cirrhosis. A risk score combining both determinants allows reliable prediction of short-term prognosis considering actual organ function. Trial Registration Number (German Clinical Trials Register) # DRKS00000614.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedad Hepática en Estado Terminal/enzimología , Cirrosis Hepática/enzimología , Acetamidas , Pruebas Respiratorias , Dióxido de Carbono/análisis , Isótopos de Carbono , Estudios de Cohortes , Creatinina/metabolismo , Citocromo P-450 CYP1A2/metabolismo , Enfermedad Hepática en Estado Terminal/metabolismo , Enfermedad Hepática en Estado Terminal/mortalidad , Femenino , Humanos , Cirrosis Hepática/metabolismo , Cirrosis Hepática/mortalidad , Pruebas de Función Hepática , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Análisis Multivariante , Pronóstico , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Estudios Prospectivos , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Tasa de SupervivenciaRESUMEN
LiMAx has been recently proposed as a new quantitative liver function test. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic ability of LiMAx to assess short-term survival in liver transplant candidates and compare its performance to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate (ICG-PDR). Liver function of 167 chronic liver failure patients without hepatocellular carcinoma was prospectively investigated when they were evaluated for liver transplantation. Primary study endpoints were liver-related death within 6 months of follow-up. Within 6 months of follow-up, 18 patients died and 36 underwent liver transplantation. Median LiMAx results on evaluation day were significantly lower in patients who died (99 µg/kg/h vs. 55 µg/kg/h; P = 0.024), while median ICG-PDR results did not differ within both groups (4.4%/min vs. 3.5%/min; P = 0.159). LiMAx showed a higher negative predictive value (NPV: 0.93) as compared with ICG-PDR (NPV: 0.90) and the MELD (NPV: 0.91) in predicting risk of death within 6 months. In conclusion, LiMAx provides good prognostic information of liver transplant candidates. In particular, patients who are not at risk of death can be identified reliably by measuring actual enzymatic liver function capacity.