Ischemic Stroke Temporally Associated With New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Registry-Linkage Study.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on the temporal relationship between new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke and its impact on patients' clinical characteristics and mortality. METHODS: A population-based registry-linkage database includes all patients with new-onset AF in Finland from 2007 to 2018. Ischemic stroke temporally associated with AF (ISTAF) was defined as an ischemic stroke occurring within ±30 days from the first AF diagnosis. Clinical factors associated with ISTAF were studied with logistic regression and 90-day survival with Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: Among 229 565 patients with new-onset AF (mean age, 72.7 years; 50% female), 204 774 (89.2%) experienced no ischemic stroke, 12 209 (5.3%) had past ischemic stroke >30 days before AF, and 12 582 (5.8%) had ISTAF. The annual proportion of ISTAF among patients with AF decreased from 6.0% to 4.8% from 2007 to 2018. Factors associated positively with ISTAF were higher age, lower education level, and alcohol use disorder, whereas vascular disease, heart failure, chronic kidney disease cancer, and psychiatric disorders were less probable with ISTAF. Compared with patients without ischemic stroke and those with past ischemic stroke, ISTAF was associated with ≈3-fold and 1.5-fold risks of death (adjusted hazard ratios, 2.90 [95% CI, 2.76-3.04] and 1.47 [95% CI, 1.39-1.57], respectively). The 90-day survival probability of patients with ISTAF increased from 0.79 (95% CI, 0.76-0.81) in 2007 to 0.89 (95% CI, 0.87-0.91) in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: ISTAF depicts the prominent temporal clustering of ischemic strokes surrounding AF diagnosis. Despite having fewer comorbidities, patients with ISTAF had worse, albeit improving, survival than patients with a history of or no ischemic stroke. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT04645537. URL: https://www.encepp.eu; Unique identifier: EUPAS29845.

Multimorbidity transitions and the associated healthcare cost among the Finnish adult population during a two-year follow-up.

Background: Ageing of the population increases the prevalence and coexistence of many chronic diseases; a condition called multimorbidity. In Finland, information on the significance of multimorbidity and its relation to the sustainability of healthcare is scarce. Aim: To assess the prevalence of multimorbidity, the transitions between patient groups with and without multiple diseases and the associated healthcare cost in Finland in 2017-2019. Methods: A register-based cohort study covering all adults (n = 3,326,467) who used Finnish primary or specialised healthcare services in 2017. At baseline, patients were classified as 'non-multimorbid', 'multimorbid' or 'multimorbid at risk' based on the recordings of a diagnosis of interest. The costs were calculated using the care-related patient grouping and national standard rates. Transition plots were drawn to observe the transition of patients and costs between groups during the two-year follow-up. Results: At baseline, 62% of patients were non-multimorbid, 23% multimorbid and 15% multimorbid at risk. In two years, the proportion of multimorbid patients increased, especially those at risk. Within the multimorbid at-risk group, total healthcare costs were greatest (€5,027 million), accounting for 62% of the total healthcare cost of the overall patient cohort in 2019. Musculoskeletal diseases, cardiometabolic diseases and tumours were the most common and expensive chronic diseases contributing to the onset of multimorbidity. Conclusion: Multimorbidity is causing a heavy burden on Finnish healthcare. The estimates of its effect on healthcare usage and costs should be used to guide healthcare planning.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on incident cases of chronic diseases in Finland.

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has caused changes in the availability and use of health services, and disruptions have been reported in chronic disease management. We aimed to study the impact of the pandemic on the incidence of chronic diseases in Finland using register-based data. Incident cases of chronic diseases decreased, except for cases of anxiety disorders. The annual reductions ranged from 5% in cases of cancers to over 16% in cases of type 2 diabetes. These findings may be due to diagnostic delays and highlight the importance of ensuring access to health care and the continuity of care in all circumstances.

Opioid trends in Finland: a register-based nationwide follow-up study.

The opioid epidemic in the U.S has gotten payers, prescribers, and policymakers alike interested in trends in opioid use. Despite no recognized opioid crisis in Europe, several countries have reported an increase in opioid-related deaths, which has further prompted discussion on the need of monitoring of opioid prescriptions. This study was conducted to offer information on opioid use during the escalation of the U.S. opioid epidemic in Finland, a Nordic country with universal tax-based health care. This is a nationwide retrospective register-based cohort study on all individuals in Finland who were dispensed opioids in 2009-2017 (n of unique patients = 1,761,584). By using the unique personal identification code assigned to every Finnish resident, we linked data from nationwide registers on dispensed drugs, medical history, and socio-demographic parameters. We report a wide set of patient demographics, dispensing trends for all opioid Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classes, and reasons for opioid initiation based on diagnostic coding for the most recent health care visit. For a cohort of incident opioid users with a four-year wash-out period (n = 1 370 057), we also present opioid use patterns in a three-year follow-up: the likelihood of becoming a persistent user or escalating from weak to strong opioids. A steady 7% of the Finnish population were dispensed opioids annually in 2009-2017. The mean annual quantity of dispensed opioids per opioid patient increased between 2009 and 2017 by 33%, reaching 2 583 oral morphine equivalent mg (OMEQ)/patient/year in 2017. The median quantity of dispensed opioids was lower: 315 OMEQ/year/patient. Depending on the opioid ATC class, there were either increasing or decreasing numbers of patients who had been dispensed said opioid class, and also in the mean quantity. The most common reason for opioid initiation was post-surgical pain (20%), followed by musculoskeletal pain (15%), injury (8.3%), and non-postsurgical dental pain (6.2%). 94% of new opioid initiators started with a weak opioid, i.e. codeine or tramadol. 85% of the patients who had been dispensed a weak opioid were not dispensed an opioid subsequently 3-6 months after the first one, and 95% of them had not escalated to a strong opioid in a 3-year follow-up. The number of patients dispensed opioids in Finland did not change during the escalation of the opioid epidemic in the U.S., but there were changes in the quantity of opioids dispensed per patient. Opioid therapy was typically initiated with weak opioid, the initial dispensed prescription was relatively small, and escalation to strong opioids was rare. A considerable share of patients had been prescribed opioids for chronic non-cancer pain - a type of pain where the risk-benefit ratio of opioids is controversial.

A comprehensive model for measuring real-life cost-effectiveness in eyecare: automation in care and evaluation of system (aces-rwm™).

This paper describes a holistic, yet simple and comprehensible, ecosystem model to deal with multiple and complex challenges in eyecare. It aims at producing the best possible wellbeing and eyesight with the available resources. When targeting to improve the real-world cost-effectiveness, what gets done in everyday practice needs be measured routinely, efficiently and unselectively. Collection of all real-world data of all patients will enable evaluation and comparison of eyecare systems and departments between themselves nationally and internationally. The concept advocates a strategy to optimize real-life effectiveness, sustainability and outcomes of the service delivery in ophthalmology. The model consists of three components: (1) resource-governing principles (i.e., to deal with increasing demand and limited resources), (2) real-world monitoring (i.e., to collect structured real-world data utilizing automation and visualization of clinical parameters, health-related quality of life and costs), and (3) digital innovation strategy (i.e., to evaluate and benchmark real-world outcomes and cost-effectiveness). The core value and strength of the model lies in the consensus and collaboration of all Finnish university eye clinics to collect and evaluate the uniformly structured real-world outcomes data. In addition to ophthalmology, the approach is adaptable to any medical discipline to efficiently generate real-world insights and resilience in health systems.

Mycosis fungoides and Sézary syndrome: a population-wide study on prevalence and health care use in Finland in 1998-2016.

BACKGROUND: Information about health care use and costs of cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL) patients is limited, particularly in a European setting. METHODS: In this population-wide study we set out to investigate prevalence, and trends in health care use in two CTCL subtypes, mycosis fungoides (MF) and Sézary syndrome (SS) over a time period of 19 years in 1998-2016 by using a nation-wide patient register containing data on all diagnosed MF and SS cases in Finland. RESULTS: The prevalence of diagnosed MF and SS rose from 2.04 to 5.38/100000, and from 0.16 to 0.36/100000 for MF and SS respectively during 1998-2016. We found a substantial decrease in inpatient treatment of MF/SS in the past two decades with a mean of 2 inpatient days/patient/year due to MF/SS in 2016, while the mean numbers of MF/SS related outpatient visits remained stable at 8 visits/year/patient. Most MF/SS-related outpatient visits occurred in the medical specialty of dermatology. In a ten-year follow-up after MF/SS diagnosis, the main causes for outpatient visits and inpatient stays were MF/SS itself, other cancers, and other skin conditions. Also cardiovascular disease and infections contributed to the number of inpatient days. Mean total hospital costs decreased from 11,600 eur/patient/year to 3600 eur/patient/year by year 4 of the follow-up, and remained at that level for the remainder of the 10-year follow-up. MF/SS accounted for approximately half of the hospital costs of these patients throughout the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The nearly 3-fold increase in prevalence of diagnosed MF/SS during 1998-2016 puts pressure on the health care system, as this is a high-cost patient group with a heavy burden of comorbidities. The challenge can be in part answered by shifting the treatment of MF/SS to a more outpatient-based practice, and by adapting new pharmacotherapy, as has been done in Finland.

Multimorbidity in Asthma, Allergic Conditions and COPD Increase Disease Severity, Drug Use and Costs: The Finnish Pharmacy Survey.

BACKGROUND: Asthma, allergic conditions, and COPD overlap, but the effect of them and their combinations on disease severity, need for drugs, use of healthcare, and costs is poorly known. OBJECTIVE: To study how different allergic diseases co-occur in asthma and allergy patients and evaluate the use of medication well as drug and healthcare costs. METHODS: Nationwide Allergy Barometer Survey was carried out in the Finnish pharmacies during 1 week in September 2016. Altogether, 956 patients (5-75 years) who purchased asthma or allergy drugs with prescription participated in 351 pharmacies. RESULTS: Of the participants, 78% reported physician-diagnosed asthma, 57% allergic rhinitis, 24% atopic eczema, 21% food allergy, 20% allergic conjunctivitis, 8% anaphylaxis, and 8% COPD. One-third of the patients had at least three conditions, and multimorbidity was common across all age groups. Disease severity increased with the number of coexisting conditions, and asthma severity also with age. Patients with asthma alone used on average 3.8 drugs with the annual costs of EUR 661. This increased to 4.9 drugs and EUR 847 in asthmatics with multimorbidity. For all participants, costs of drugs and healthcare services together during the preceding year were on average EUR 1,214, of which 56% were drug costs. The costs doubled to EUR 2,714 in 65 subjects (7%) who had both asthma and COPD. CONCLUSIONS: In asthma and allergy, multimorbidity and polypharmacy are major concerns. Disease severity, drug use, and costs increased with multimorbid conditions. To reduce the burden, allergy management should be better integrated and more comprehensive.

Cancer costs and outcomes for common cancer sites in the Finnish population between 2009-2014.

BACKGROUND: The cost of cancer and outcomes of cancer care have been discussed a lot since cancer represents 3-6% of total healthcare costs and cost estimations have indicated growing costs. There are studies considering the cost of all cancers, but studies focusing on the cost of disease and outcomes in most common cancer sites are limited. The objective of this study was to analyze the development of the costs and outcomes in Finland between 2009 and 2014 per cancer site. METHODS: The National cost, episode and outcomes data were obtained from the National register databases based on International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 diagnosis codes. Cost data included both the direct and indirect costs. Two hospitals were used to validate the costs of care. The outcome measures included relative survival rate, mortality, sick leave days per patient and number of new disability pensions. FINDINGS: The outcomes of cancer care in most common cancer sites have improved in Finland between 2009-2014. The real costs per new cancer patient decreased in seven out of ten most common cancer sites. The significance of different cost components differ significantly between the different cancer sites. The share of medication costs of the total cost of all cancers increased, but decreased for the five most common cancer sites. INTERPRETATION: The changes in the cost components indicate that the length of stay has shortened in special care and treatment methods have developed towards outpatient care. This partially explains the decrease of costs. Also, at the same time outcomes improved, which indicates that decrease in costs did not come at the expense of treatment quality. As the survival rates increase, the relevance of mortality measures decreases and the relevance of other, patient-relevant outcome measures increases. In the future, the outcomes and costs of health care systems should be assessed routinely for the most common patient groups.

Pneumonia in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis in Finland 1999-2014: a nationwide retrospective register linkage study.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the incidence of pneumonia in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) to the aged-matched general population and to evaluate the use of anti-rheumatic medication among children with JIA and pneumonia. METHODS: The National Hospital Discharge Register collects data on ICD-diagnoses of hospital patients in Finland. From this register, patients with JIA under 18 years of age with pneumonia from 1999 through 2014 were identified. The control group consisted of age-matched patients derived from the general population with a diagnosis of pneumonia made in the same calendar year as the pneumonia of the JIA patients. The patient records of the children with JIA were scrutinised for the use of anti-rheumatic medication. RESULTS: We identified 223 pneumonias among the JIA patients (56,161 patient-years) and 53,058 pneumonias in the control group (17,546,609 person-years). The incidence of pneumonia in children with JIA was 386 (annual range 131-639) and in the control group 303 (annual range 225-438) per 100,000 person-years. The incidence of pneumonia increased significantly over time among JIA patients (p=0.013) and in the control group (p<0.001). Through 2007-2014 the rate of pneumonia was significantly higher among children with JIA (p<0.001) than control children. We found 150 JIA patients with pneumonia confirmed by positive chest radiograph. Altogether 47% of the JIA patients had combination medication. The use of methotrexate and biologic agents increased significantly over time (p=0.016 and p<0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of pneumonia increased in children with JIA and in the general population from 1999 to 2014. During 2007-2014 JIA patients had a significantly higher rate of pneumonia than age-matched controls. The use of active anti-rheumatic medication was common.

Cancer costs and outcomes in the Finnish population 2004-2014.

INTRODUCTION: The cost of cancer and outcomes of cancer care has been much debated, since cancer represents 3-6% of total healthcare costs. The objective of this study was to analyse the development of the costs and outcomes in Finland between 2004 and 2014. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The national cost, episodes and outcomes data were obtained from the national register databases. Two hospitals were used to validate the costs of care. The outcome measures included relative survival rate, mortality, sick leave days per patient and number of new disability pensions. RESULTS: The total cost of cancer in 2014 was 927 million €. The real costs increased by 1.7% per year over the period studied, while the cost per new cancer patient decreased. The relative survival rate was enhanced by 7%, and the number of sick leave days and new disability pensions per cancer patient was reduced. The share occupied by cancer treatment in total healthcare costs decreased slightly from 3.7% to 3.6%, indicating that cancer care has not become more expensive compared to the treatment of other diseases. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first survey to analyse the change in actual cancer costs and outcomes in the population-level within a 10-year period. Since cancer care outcomes in Finland have been among the best in Europe, the progress in terms of the costs and the conversions in the cost distributions across categories are significant and valuable sources for international comparisons.

The Finnish experience to save asthma costs by improving care in 1987-2013.

The Finnish National Asthma Program 1994-2004 markedly improved asthma care in the 1990s. We evaluated the changes in costs during 26 years from 1987 to 2013. Direct and indirect costs were calculated by using data from national registries. Costs from both the societal and patient perspectives were included. The costs were based on patients with persistent, physician-diagnosed asthma verified by lung function measurements. We constructed minimum and maximum scenarios to assess the effect of improved asthma care on total costs. The number of patients with persistent asthma in the national drug reimbursement register increased from 83,000 to 247,583. Improved asthma control reduced health care use and disability, resulting in major cost savings. Despite a 3-fold increase in patients, the total costs decreased by 14%, from €222 million to €191 million. Costs for medication and primary care visits increased, but overall annual costs per patient decreased by 72%, from €2656 to €749. The theoretical total cost savings for 2013, comparing actual with predicted costs, were between €120 and €475 million, depending on the scenario used. The Finnish Asthma Program resulted in significant cost savings at both the societal and patient levels during a 26-year period.

Reduced severity and improved control of self-reported asthma in Finland during 2001-2010.

BACKGROUND: Asthma and allergies are common and cause substantial burden in symptoms and suffering, hospitalizations and medication costs. However, despite the high prevalence, asthma burden has already decreased in Finland in 2000s. OBJECTIVE: We carried out an asthma barometer survey in all Finnish pharmacies to study changes in asthma severity and control, and use of health care services from 2001 to 2010. METHODS: Asthma severity, comorbid allergic conditions, and use of medication and health care services were assessed in subjects who purchased asthma or allergy medication from the pharmacies all across the country during one week in 2001 and again in 2010. In 2001, 3,062 patients (mean age, 49 years), and in 2010, 1,114 patients (mean age, 51 years) participated. RESULTS: In 2001 90% and in 2010 73% of the respondents reported physician-diagnosed asthma and were entitled to special reimbursement for their drug costs, i.e., they needed regular maintenance treatment. In 2001, 10% of the asthmatics regarded their disease as severe, compared with 4% in 2010, while the figures for mild asthma were 45% and 62%, respectively (p < 0.001). The proportion of patients needing emergency care during the last year decreased from 34% (2001) to 14% (2010) (p < 0.001) and the need for hospitalizations from 18% to 6% (p < 0.001). Smoking reduced from 24% to 18% among asthmatics ( p = 0.002). In 2010, risk factors for severe asthma were older age, comorbid atopic eczema, and food allergy. CONCLUSION: During ten years, self-reported asthma severity has reduced and disease control improved in Finland.

The burden and costs of prevention and management of genital disease caused by HPV in women: a population-based registry study in Finland.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the total burden and health care provider costs of prevention, management and treatment of HP-related genital disease outcomes including all organized and opportunistic screening tests. Information about HPV-related disease outcomes in the Finnish female population of 2.7 million was obtained from nationwide population-based registry data. We estimated the incidence, health care resource use, health provider costs and life years lost due to cervical, vaginal and vulvar cancer and intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN, VaIN, VIN), cervical adenocarcinoma in situ, and external genital warts. The average annual disease burden of HPV-related genital disease in the female population of Finland comprises altogether 241 cases of cervical, vaginal and vulvar cancer, 2,898 new cases of CIN, 34,432 cases of minor cytological abnormalities, and almost 4,000 cases of external genital warts. The total annual costs of screening, further diagnostics and treatment of HPV-related genital disease were € 44.7 million of which the annual costs due to cervical cancer screening were € 22.4 million and due to diagnostics, management and treatment of HPV-related genital disease outcomes were € 22.3 million. The latter included € 8.4 million due to minor cervical abnormalities detected by the current cervical screening practice. The extensive opportunistic Pap testing fails to keep the incidence of cervical cancer from increasing among women aged 30-34. In addition opportunistic screening among this and younger age group detects a significant number of cytological abnormalities, most of which are probably treated unnecessarily.

The effect of hospital volume on length of stay, re-admissions, and complications of total hip arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Hospital volume has been suggested to be one of the best indicators of adverse orthopedic events in patients undergoing THR surgery. We therefore evaluated the effect of hospital volume on the length of stay, re-admissions, and complications of THR at the population level in Finland. METHODS: 30,266 THRs performed for primary osteoarthritis were identified from the Hospital Discharge Register. Hospitals were classified into 4 groups according to the number of THRs performed on an annual basis over the whole study period: 1-50 (group 1), 51-150 (group 2), 151-300 (group 3), and > 300 (group 4). RESULTS: In 2005, the length of the period of surgical treatment was 5.5 days in group 4 and 6.8 days in group 1 (the reference group). During the whole study period (1998-2005), the length of surgical treatment period was shorter in group 4 than in group 1 (p < 0.001). The odds ratio for dislocations (0.7, 95% CI: 0.6-0.9) was lower in group 3 than in group 1. INTERPRETATION: Hip replacements performed in high-volume hospitals reduce costs by shortening the length of stay, and they may reduce the dislocation rate.

Impact of very preterm birth on health care costs at five years of age.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the effects of very preterm birth (gestational age <32 weeks or birth weight <1501 g) and prematurity-related morbidities on health care costs during the fifth year of life. METHODS: The study population consisted of 588 very preterm children and 176 term control subjects born in 2001-2002. Costs of hospitalizations, visits to health care professionals and therapists, and the use of other social welfare services were assessed during the fifth year of life. Hospital visits were derived from register data and other health care contacts, and the use of social welfare services were derived from parental reports. The effects of 6 prematurity-related morbidities (cerebral palsy [CP], seizure disorder, obstructive airway disease, hearing loss, visual disturbances or blindness, and other ophthalmologic problems) on the costs of health care were studied. RESULTS: The average health care costs during the fifth year of life were 749 euro in the term control subjects, 1023 euro in the very preterm children without morbidities, and 3265 euro in those with morbidities. The costs of social welfare services and therapies exceeded the hospitalization costs in all groups. Among children who were born preterm, CP was associated with 5125 euro higher costs, whereas later obstructive airway diseases increased the costs by 819 euro compared with individuals without these morbidities. CONCLUSIONS: The health care costs during the fifth year of life in very preterm children with morbidities were 4.4-fold and in those without morbidities 1.4-fold compared with those of term control subjects. This emphasizes the importance of prevention of morbidities, especially CP, to reduce the long-term costs of prematurity.

Cost effectiveness of varenicline versus bupropion and unaided cessation for smoking cessation in a cohort of Finnish adult smokers.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost effectiveness of varenicline compared with bupropion or unaided cessation for smoking cessation in Finnish adult smokers. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The BENESCO (BENEfits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes) Markov model was used to follow a hypothetical cohort of smokers making a single quit attempt over a lifetime. Gender and age-specific data on the incidence and prevalence of five smoking-related diseases (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], lung cancer, coronary heart disease [CHD], stroke and asthma exacerbations) were included in the model. Life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), total treatment costs and the lifetime cumulative incidence of these parameters were the primary outcomes evaluated, and they were compared for varenicline versus bupropion and varenicline versus unaided cessation. The primary data were derived from Finnish publications and databases. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the base-case model. RESULTS: The treatment cohort comprised 229 301 smokers making a quit attempt. In the lifetime simulation, use of varenicline prevented 1965 and 5057 additional cases of smoking-related disease, and 1184 and 3047 deaths attributable to smoking, when compared with bupropion and unaided cessation, respectively. Compared with bupropion and unaided cessation varenicline treatment yielded 4392 and 11 303 additional LYs (4851 and 12 485 QALYs), respectively. Varenicline resulted in cost savings of 15 million and 43 million euros (euro) compared with bupropion and unaided cessation, respectively. In the 20-year time horizon analysis, varenicline yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of euro8791/QALY and euro7791/QALY gained in comparison to bupropion and unaided cessation, respectively. Sensitivity analyses supported the robustness of the base-case results for varenicline. CONCLUSION: Varenicline dominated over its comparators, i.e. it was more effective and resulted in cost saving compared with bupropion and unaided cessation.

[Cost-utility of bariatric surgery in the treatment for morbid obesity in Finland]. / Sairaalloisen lihavuuden leikkaushoidon kustannusvaikuttavuus Suomessa.

Finohta's health technology assessment report on bariatric surgery included a cost-utility analysis on three main surgical interventions used in Finland. A cost-utility analysis from the health care provider's perspective with a ten year time horizon was conducted. The parameter values were based on a representative population survey, register data, literature and expert opinions. Based on the analysis, bariatric surgery is more effective and less costly than current prevailing forms of treatment for the morbidly obese in Finland. The results were robust and consistent with previously published studies: Bariatric surgery is cost-effective in treatment of morbid obesity.

The need and total cost of Finnish eyecare services: a simulation model for 2005-2040.

PURPOSE: The aims of this study were: (i) to create a structural simulation model capable of predicting the future need and cost of eyecare services in Finland; and (ii) to test and rank different policy alternatives for access to care and the required physician workforce. METHODS: Using the system dynamics approach, the number and cost of patients with cataract, glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) were described with causal-loop diagrams and were then translated into a set of mathematical equations to build a computer simulation model. Mathematically, the problem was formulated as a set of differential equations that were solved numerically with specialized software. The validity of the model was tested against prevalence and administrative historical data. The costs covered by the public sector in Finland were obtained from 2003 from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register (including outpatient care), the Finnish Social Insurance Institution and a survey of hospital price lists. Different levels of access to public care were then simulated in four eye diseases, for which the model estimated the need for services and resources and their costs in the years 2005-2040. RESULTS: The model forecasted that the adoption of the 2005 national 'access to care' criteria for cataract surgery would shorten waiting lists. If the workload of Finnish ophthalmologists were kept at the 2003 level, the graduation rate of new ophthalmologists would have to increase by 75% from the current level. If all glaucoma patients were followed in the public sector in future, even this increase in training would not meet the demand for physician workforce. The current model indicated that the screening frequency of diabetes can be increased without large sacrifices in terms of costs. AMD therapy has a significant role in the allocation of future resources in eyecare. The modelling study predicted that ageing alone will increase the costs of eyecare during the next four decades in Finland by about 1% per year in real terms (undiscounted and without inflation of unit costs). The increases in total yearly costs were on average 8.6% between 2001 and 2003. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this modelling study indicate that policy initiatives, such as defining criteria for access to care, can have substantial implications on the demand for care and waiting times whereas the effect of ageing alone was relatively small. Measures to control several other factors - such as the adoption and price level of new technologies, treatments and practice patterns - will be at least equally important in order to restrain healthcare costs effectively.

Cost effectiveness and cost utility of an organized screening programme for glaucoma.

PURPOSE: To assess the cost effectiveness and cost utility of an organized screening programme for glaucoma. The previous cost-effectiveness studies of screening show inconsistent results, and the cost utility of screening has not been assessed. METHODS: An organized screening programme was simulated using Markov modelling in a population aged 50-79 years at 5 year intervals. The programme ended when the subjects reached the age of 80 years. The comparator was opportunistic case finding. The main outcome measures were cases and years of severe visual disability avoided, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and direct healthcare and non-healthcare costs. RESULTS: The incremental cost of 1 year of avoided visual disability by screening was euro32 602. The cost of one QALY gained by screening was euro9023 with a discount rate of 5%. During the average 20 year time horizon considered, the cumulative incremental costs of screening in a population of 1 million people would be euro30 million, producing 3360 incremental QALYs and 930 years of avoided visual disability for 701 persons. The results were sensitive to the estimates of several parameters, especially screening cost and specificity of screening tests (96-99% specificity required). CONCLUSION: An organized screening programme could be a cost-effective strategy especially in older age groups, in which screening is clearly more likely to be acceptable to decision makers at any level in terms of their willingness to pay for a QALY. Modelling includes some uncertainty especially concerning the specificity of diagnostic tests and screening cost.

Economic evaluation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in Finland.

The aim of this study was to evaluate cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in children <5 y of age. A Markov simulation model was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of 4 doses (assumed 50.5 euros per dose) of PCV7 with no intervention. Only direct effects of the vaccine were taken into account. In Finland, vaccination of a birth cohort of 57,500 healthy infants would potentially prevent annually 60 cases of invasive PD, 1,400 cases of pneumococcal pneumonia, 15,000 episodes of acute otitis media, 3,000 otological surgery procedures and 0.9 deaths in children aged <5 y. Investing 12.0 million euros to vaccinate a birth cohort would save annually 6.3 million euros in medical, and 2.0 million euros in productivity and other, costs. Therefore, investing 1 euros in a vaccination programme would return 0.53 euros in medical costs and 0.70 euros in societal costs. In the base case, vaccination would cost society 139,986 euros per life y gained. To achieve cost savings from a health care provider (societal) perspective, without considering herd effects or replacement phenomenon, the price of PCV7 should be 50% (70%) of the price used in the base case.