Objective Estimates Improve Risk Stratification for Primary Graft Dysfunction after Lung Transplantation.

Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a major cause of early mortality after lung transplant. We aimed to define objective estimates of PGD risk based on readily available clinical variables, using a prospective study of 11 centers in the Lung Transplant Outcomes Group (LTOG). Derivation included 1255 subjects from 2002 to 2010; with separate validation in 382 subjects accrued from 2011 to 2012. We used logistic regression to identify predictors of grade 3 PGD at 48/72 h, and decision curve methods to assess impact on clinical decisions. 211/1255 subjects in the derivation and 56/382 subjects in the validation developed PGD. We developed three prediction models, where low-risk recipients had a normal BMI (18.5-25 kg/m(2) ), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/cystic fibrosis, and absent or mild pulmonary hypertension (mPAP<40 mmHg). All others were considered higher-risk. Low-risk recipients had a predicted PGD risk of 4-7%, and high-risk a predicted PGD risk of 15-18%. Adding a donor-smoking lung to a higher-risk recipient significantly increased PGD risk, although risk did not change in low-risk recipients. Validation demonstrated that probability estimates were generally accurate and that models worked best at baseline PGD incidences between 5% and 25%. We conclude that valid estimates of PGD risk can be produced using readily available clinical variables.

Minimal benefit of earlier-than-recommended repeat colonoscopy among US Medicare enrollees following a negative colonoscopy.

BACKGROUND: A large proportion of US Medicare beneficiaries undergo earlier-than-recommended follow-up colonoscopies after negative screening colonoscopy. Such practice entails substantial cost and added risk. AIMS: To compare the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) associated with varying follow-up colonoscopy intervals following a negative colonoscopy, and to determine whether the potential benefit of a shorter colonoscopy follow-up interval would differ by gender. METHODS: We conducted a weighted cohort study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare linked database (1991-2006) among 932,370 Medicare enrollees who are representative of the entire US elderly population. We compared the cumulative incidence of CRC among patients who underwent follow-up colonoscopies at different intervals following a negative colonoscopy. The primary outcome was incident CRC. RESULTS: The eligible study cohort (n = 480,864) included 106,924 patients who underwent ≥1 colonoscopy. Men were more likely to require polypectomy during their initial colonoscopy than women. Compared to the recommended 9-10 year follow-up colonoscopy interval, an interval of 5-6 years was associated with the largest CRC cumulative risk reduction [i.e. 0.17% (95% CI: 0.009-0.32%)]. The magnitude of risk reduction associated with shorter colonoscopy follow-up intervals was not significantly different between men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Among elderly individuals who undergo a negative colonoscopy, the magnitude of reduction in the cumulative CRC risk afforded by earlier-than-recommended follow-up colonoscopy is quite small, and probably cannot justify the risk and cost of increased colonoscopy frequency. In addition, there are insufficient differences between men and women to warrant gender-specific recommendations.

Defining optic nerve tortuosity.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Optic nerve tortuosity is one of several nonmalignant abnormalities documented on MR imaging in patients with neurofibromatosis type 1 and may be related to the development of optic pathway gliomas. This study seeks an operational definition for optic nerve tortuosity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A focus group of 3 pediatric neuroradiologists reviewed 20 MR images of the brain and orbits of patients suspected to have optic nerve tortuosity in the absence of optic pathway glioma and found 6 radiographic factors that occurred frequently. Subsequently, 28 MR images were assessed for the presence of optic nerve tortuosity, using a global assessment question that reflects a neuroradiologist's confidence in the presence of optic nerve tortuosity, and for the presence of the 6 radiographic factors, to identify a combination of these factors that best predicted a diagnosis of optic nerve tortuosity. RESULTS: We found perfect inter-rater agreement between 3 readers on the presence/absence of tortuosity in 75% of cases. Lack of congruity of the optic nerves, in more than 1 coronal section and dilation of the subarachnoid space surrounding the optic nerves, when found together are sensitive (89%) and specific (93%) for a diagnosis of tortuosity on the global scale. The absence of these 2 factors, along with absence of deviation of the optic nerve within the axial plane, provides a reliable test to exclude tortuosity. CONCLUSION: Lack of congruity of the optic nerves in more than 1 coronal section and dilation of the subarachnoid space surrounding the optic nerves together provide an operational radiographic definition of optic nerve tortuosity.

Incidence of adverse events and negligence in hospitalized patients: results of the Harvard Medical Practice Study I. 1991.

BACKGROUND: As part of an interdisciplinary study of medical injury and malpractice litigation, we estimated the incidence of adverse events, defined as injuries caused by medical management, and of the subgroup of such injuries that resulted from negligent or substandard care. METHODS: We reviewed 30121 randomly selected records from 51 randomly selected acute care, non-psychiatric hospitals in New York State in 1984. We then developed population estimates of injuries and computed rates according to the age and sex of the patients as well as the specialties of the physicians. RESULTS: Adverse events occurred in 3.7% of the hospitalizations (95% confidence interval 3.2 to 4.2), and 27.6% of the adverse events were due to negligence (95% confidence interval 22.5 to 32.6). Although 70.5% of the adverse events gave rise to disability lasting less than 6 months, 2.6% caused permanently disabling injuries and 13.6% led to death. The percentage of adverse events attributable to negligence increased in the categories of more severe injuries (Wald test chi(2) = 21.04, p<0.0001). Using weighted totals we estimated that among the 2671863 patients discharged from New York hospitals in 1984 there were 98609 adverse events and 27179 adverse events involving negligence. Rates of adverse events rose with age (p<0.0001). The percentage of adverse events due to negligence was markedly higher among the elderly (p<0.01). There were significant differences in rates of adverse events among categories of clinical specialties (p<0.0001), but no differences in the percentage due to negligence. CONCLUSIONS: There is a substantial amount of injury to patients from medical management, and many injuries are the result of substandard care.

Avascular necrosis after treatment of DDH: the protective influence of the ossific nucleus.

We retrospectively reviewed the results of open or closed reduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) in 49 children younger than 12 months old, who had 57 hip dislocations. Group A (18 hips) developed partial or complete avascular necrosis (AVN), and group B (39 hips) did not develop AVN. Thirty-eight hips were treated by closed reduction, and 17 had open reduction. One patient with bilateral hip dislocation initially had closed reductions followed by bilateral open reduction 3 months later. With the numbers available for study, there was no significant difference in the occurrence of AVN with respect to variables such as preliminary traction, closed versus open reduction, Pavlik harness use, and age at the time of operative intervention. However, the presence of the ossific nucleus before reduction, detected either by radiographs (p < 0.001) or ultrasonography (p = 0.033) was statistically significant in predicting AVN. Only one (4%) of 25 hips with an ossific nucleus developed AVN, whereas 17 (53%) of 32 hips without an ossific nucleus before reduction developed AVN. Our results suggest that the presence of the ossific nucleus before closed or open reduction for DDH may decrease the risk of AVN.

In vivo accuracy of two radiographic systems in the detection of Björk-Shiley convexo-concave heart valve outlet strut single leg separations.

OBJECTIVE: Modified cineradiographic systems have been used clinically to detect partially broken outlet struts in normally functioning Björk-Shiley convexo-concave heart valves. Almost all such valves were explanted, presuming that full failure would likely follow. Inasmuch as the clinical setting only rarely permits examination of normally rated valves, the accuracy of radiographic detection cannot be clinically defined. This study uses the clinical radiographic technique in sheep implanted with known-status convexo-concave valves, comparing its accuracy and that of a newly developed, geometric image magnification radiography system. METHODS: Twenty-one sheep with mitral convexo-concave valves were studied on both systems. Five were used for extensive training. When operators were expert with both systems, images of four intact valves and 12 valves with outlet strut single leg separations, along with a seventeenth single leg separation valve used for calibration, were integrated into 112 image sets organized into a balanced incomplete block design for evaluation by eight trained, blinded reviewers. RESULTS: Cineradiography sensitivity was 24% versus 31% for direct image magnification. The odds ratio for detection of single leg separation by direct image magnification versus cineradiography was 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.76 to 5.9; p = 0.13). Cineradiography specificity was 93% versus 90% for direct image magnification. Sensitivity and specificity varied markedly by reviewer, with sensitivity ranging from 8% to 55% and specificity from 51% to 100% for the combined technologies. CONCLUSIONS: The data support the need for more intensive training for convexo-concave valve imaging and further investigation of unconventional radiographic technologies. Clinical cineradiography of convexo-concave valves may detect as little as 25% of valves having a single leg separation, underestimating the prevalence of single leg separations and thereby implying more rapid progression to full fracture than is actually the case.

The public release of hospital and physician mortality data in Pennsylvania. A case study.

OBJECTIVES: Using the public reports of the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council on coronary artery bypass graft surgery for 1990 to 1992 as a case study, the authors assess the sensitivity of results to the choice of data and statistical methodology. METHODS: Using the Council's public-release data, surgical mortality and utilization were reanalyzed by standard linear models, empirical Bayes methods, Monte Carlo simulations, and hierarchical statistical models. RESULTS: Statistical power calculations demonstrate that the annual volume of bypass surgery for many hospitals and for most surgeons is too small for meaningful mortality comparisons. The number of hospitals and physicians designated as mortality "outliers" in the Council's reports results in part from a failure to adjust critical P values for multiple comparisons. Hierarchical statistical models implemented by mixed effects logistic regression, by contrast, can detect true differences in performance without producing false outliers. Mortality analyses are sensitive to the choice of comorbidities used for severity adjustment of a mortality model. Small-area analyses indicate large differences in the rates of bypass surgery across Pennsylvania, with lower population-based rates of surgery associated with higher population-based inpatient mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses of mortality by operative procedure, rather than by patient diagnosis, should consider the potential for selection bias caused by the decision to elect surgery. The clinical and statistical issues of operative mortality are sufficiently complex to merit review by independent experts before public release of hospital and physician performance measures.

Measuring defensive medicine using clinical scenario surveys.

For more than two decades, advocates of malpractice system reform have claimed that the most damaging and costly result of the U.S. medical malpractice system is the practice of defensive medicine, in which physicians order tests and procedures primarily because of fear of malpractice liability. In this article, we discuss the issues raised by different definitions of defensive medicine and propose a working definition to guide measurement of the concept. We also consider the strengths and weaknesses of available approaches for measuring defensive medicine. Finally, we describe an empirical approach to measuring defensive medicine using clinical scenario surveys. The results suggest that, if physicians actually practice as they say they would in these surveys, defensive medicine does exist, although not to the extent suggested by anecdotal evidence or direct physician surveys. The results also suggest that defensive medicine varies considerably across clinical situations. In all of the scenarios, many physicians chose aggressive patient management styles even though conservative management was considered medically acceptable by the expert panels that developed the scenarios. In most cases, medical indications, not malpractice concerns, motivated clinical choices. Our results highlight the limitations of surveys as a method of measuring the extent of defensive medicine. The implications of managed care and health care reform for defensive medicine are also discussed.

A clinical grading scale to predict malignant hyperthermia susceptibility.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of an acute malignant hyperthermia reaction by clinical criteria can be difficult because of the nonspecific nature and variable incidence of many of the clinical signs and laboratory findings. Development of a standardized means for estimating the qualitative likelihood of malignant hyperthermia in a given patient without the use of specialized diagnostic testing would be useful for patient management and would promote research into improved means for diagnosing this disease. METHODS: Using the Delphi method and an international panel of 11 experts on malignant hyperthermia, a multifactor malignant hyperthermia clinical grading scale comprising standardized clinical diagnostic criteria was developed for classification of existing records and for application to new patients. RESULTS: This scale ranks the qualitative likelihood that an adverse anesthetic event represents malignant hyperthermia (malignant hyperthermia event rank) and that, with further investigation of family history, an individual patient will be diagnosed as malignant hyperthermia susceptible (malignant hyperthermia susceptibility rank). The assigned rank represents a lower bound on the likelihood of malignant hyperthermia. The clinical grading scale requires the anesthesiologist to judge whether specific clinical signs are appropriate for the patient's medical condition, anesthetic technique, and surgical procedure. CONCLUSIONS: The malignant hyperthermia clinical grading scale is recommended for use as an aid to the objective definition of this disease. It use may improve malignant hyperthermia research by allowing comparisons among well-defined groups of patients. This clinical grading system provides a new and comprehensive clinical case definition for the malignant hyperthermia syndrome.

A predictive risk index for nosocomial pneumonia in the intensive care unit.

PURPOSE: To develop a scoring system for stratifying patients in intensive care units (ICUs) by risk of developing nosocomial pneumonia (NP) and to identify the time period associated with the highest risk. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two hundred and three patients 18 years of age or older and residing in the ICU for 72 hours or more were followed until development of NP or death or for 48 hours after discharge from the ICU. After the identification of independent risk factors for NP, a scoring system was developed to arrive at a predictive risk index for NP. RESULTS: Twenty-six (12.8%) patients developed NP. The presence of a nasogastric (NG) tube [odds ratio (OR) = 6.48, 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 2.11 to 19.82], upper abdominal/thoracic surgery (OR = 4.34, 95% CI = 1.43 to 13.14), and bronchoscopy (OR = 2.95, 95% CI = 1.02 to 8.52), most commonly performed for respiratory toilet, were identified as independent risk factors on multivariate analysis. The risks associated with endotracheal intubation and altered consciousness, although not independently significant, were highest when these factors were present for 1 to 4 days after the 72 hours required for study entry (endotracheal intubation, OR = 2.2 to 2.5; altered consciousness, OR = 1.4 to 2.0). The risk then declined; ORs of less than 1 were observed at 7 days. The risk associated with the NG tube was highest during the first 6 days (OR = 6.0 to 19.5). Although a subsequent decrease in risk was observed, the OR was still greater than 2 at 7 days. To obtain a predictive risk index for NP, a scoring system was developed using a multivariate model. This system has a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 66% in predicting NP in this ICU population. CONCLUSION: ICU patients can be stratified into high- and low-risk groups for NP using a bedside scoring system. Endotracheal intubation, altered mental status, and NG tube are associated with the highest risk of NP during the first 1 to 6 days of their presence after 72 hours of stay in the ICU. After this time period, the risk associated with these factors decreases. Bronchoscopy may be an independent risk factor for NP that has not been previously recognized. This procedure, often done in the ICU for respiratory toilet, may be an avoidable risk in this group of patients.

The nature of adverse events in hospitalized patients. Results of the Harvard Medical Practice Study II.

BACKGROUND: In a sample of 30,195 randomly selected hospital records, we identified 1133 patients (3.7 percent) with disabling injuries caused by medical treatment. We report here an analysis of these adverse events and their relation to error, negligence, and disability. METHODS: Two physician-reviewers independently identified the adverse events and evaluated them with respect to negligence, errors in management, and extent of disability. One of the authors classified each event according to type of injury. We tested the significance of differences in rates of negligence and disability among categories with at least 30 adverse events. RESULTS: Drug complications were the most common type of adverse event (19 percent), followed by wound infections (14 percent) and technical complications (13 percent). Nearly half the adverse events (48 percent) were associated with an operation. Adverse events during surgery were less likely to be caused by negligence (17 percent) than nonsurgical ones (37 percent). The proportion of adverse events due to negligence was highest for diagnostic mishaps (75 percent), noninvasive therapeutic mishaps ("errors of omission") (77 percent), and events occurring in the emergency room (70 percent). Errors in management were identified for 58 percent of the adverse events, among which nearly half were attributed to negligence. CONCLUSIONS: Although the prevention of many adverse events must await improvements in medical knowledge, the high proportion that are due to management errors suggests that many others are potentially preventable now. Reducing the incidence of these events will require identifying their causes and developing methods to prevent error or reduce its effects.