Toward a Functional Cure for Hepatitis B.

Current treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, pegylated interferon-α (pegIFN-α) and nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA), can suppress HBV replication, reverse liver inflammation and fibrosis, and decrease risks of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, but hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss is rare. Functional HBV cure is defined as undetectable HBsAg and unquantifiable serum HBV DNA for at least 24 weeks after a finite course of therapy. This requires suppression of HBV replication and viral protein production as well as restoration of immune response to HBV. Direct-acting antivirals targeting virus entry, capsid assembly, viral protein production and secretion are in clinical trials. In parallel, immune modulatory therapies to stimulate HBV-specific immune response and to remove immune blockade are being tested. Clinical trials of direct-acting antivirals alone or immune modulatory therapies alone have not been successful in achieving HBV cure. Recent combinations of direct-acting antivirals and immune modulatory therapies have shown promising results particularly with combinations that included pegIFN-α. These results need to be confirmed in larger studies with longer follow-up, and further work is needed to develop simpler regimens with fewer drugs that can be administered orally and safely. While there is a strong desire to develop finite therapies that can achieve HBV cure, safety is paramount and new therapies must provide incremental value compared to standard of care, which is predominantly long-term NA therapy.

What will it take to cure hepatitis B?

The current treatment of chronic HBV infection, pegylated interferon-α (pegIFNα) and nucleos(t)ide analog (NA), can suppress HBV replication, reverse liver inflammation and fibrosis and reduce the risks of cirrhosis, HCC, and HBV-related deaths, but relapse is common when the treatment is stopped before HBsAg loss. There have been major efforts to develop a cure for HBV, defined as sustained HBsAg loss after a finite course of therapy. This requires the suppression of HBV replication and viral protein production and the restoration of immune response to HBV. Direct-acting antivirals targeting virus entry, capsid assembly, viral protein production and secretion are in clinical trials. Immune modulatory therapies to stimulate adaptive or innate immunity and/or to remove immune blockade are being tested. NAs are included in most and pegIFNα in some regimens. Despite the combination of 2 or more therapies, HBsAg loss remains rare in part because HbsAg can be derived not only from the covalently closed circular DNA but also from the integrated HBV DNA. Achievement of a functional HBV cure will require therapies to eliminate or silence covalently closed circular DNA and integrated HBV DNA. In addition, assays to differentiate the source of circulating HBsAg and to determine HBV immune recovery, as well as standardization and improvement of assays for HBV RNA and hepatitis B core-related antigen, surrogate markers for covalently closed circular DNA transcription, are needed to accurately assess response and to target treatments according to patient/disease characteristics. Platform trials will allow the comparison of multiple combinations and channel patients with different characteristics to the treatment that is most likely to succeed. Safety is paramount, given the excellent safety profile of NA therapy.

Higher mortality among lean patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease despite fewer metabolic comorbidities.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can develop in individuals who are not overweight. Whether lean persons with NAFLD have lower mortality and lower incidence of cirrhosis, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), diabetes mellitus (DM) and cancer than overweight/obese persons with NAFLD remains inconclusive. We compared mortality and incidence of cirrhosis, CVD, DM and cancer between lean versus non-lean persons with NAFLD. METHODS: This is a retrospective study of adults with NAFLD in a single centre from 2012 to 2021. Primary outcomes were mortality and new diagnosis of cirrhosis, CVD, DM and cancer. Outcomes were modelled using competing risk analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 18,594 and 13,420 patients were identified for cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis respectively: approximately 11% lean, 25% overweight, 28% class 1 obesity and 35% class 2-3 obesity. The median age was 51.0 years, 54.6% were women. The median follow-up was 49.3 months. Lean patients had lower prevalence of metabolic diseases at baseline and lower incidence of cirrhosis and DM than non-lean patients and no difference in CVD, any cancer or obesity-related cancer during follow-up. However, lean patients had significantly higher mortality with incidence per 1000 person-years of 16.67, 10.11, 7.37 and 8.99, respectively, in lean, overweight, obesity class 1 and obesity class 2-3 groups respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Lean patients with NAFLD had higher mortality despite lower incidence of cirrhosis and DM, and similar incidence of CVD and cancer and merit similar if not more attention as non-lean patients with NAFLD.

Hepatitis B.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major public health problem, with an estimated 296 million people chronically infected and 820 000 deaths worldwide in 2019. Diagnosis of HBV infection requires serological testing for HBsAg and for acute infection additional testing for IgM hepatitis B core antibody (IgM anti-HBc, for the window period when neither HBsAg nor anti-HBs is detected). Assessment of HBV replication status to guide treatment decisions involves testing for HBV DNA, whereas assessment of liver disease activity and staging is mainly based on aminotransferases, platelet count, and elastography. Universal infant immunisation, including birth dose vaccination is the most effective means to prevent chronic HBV infection. Two vaccines with improved immunogenicity have recently been approved for adults in the USA and EU, with availability expected to expand. Current therapies, pegylated interferon, and nucleos(t)ide analogues can prevent development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, but do not eradicate the virus and rarely clear HBsAg. Treatment is recommended for patients with cirrhosis or with high HBV DNA levels and active or advanced liver disease. New antiviral and immunomodulatory therapies aiming to achieve functional cure (ie, clearance of HBsAg) are in clinical development. Improved vaccination coverage, increased screening, diagnosis and linkage to care, development of curative therapies, and removal of stigma are important in achieving WHO's goal of eliminating HBV infection by 2030.

A multivariate parametric empirical Bayes screening approach for early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma using multiple longitudinal biomarkers.

The early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is critical to improving outcomes since advanced HCC has limited treatment options. Current guidelines recommend HCC ultrasound surveillance every 6 months in high-risk patients however the sensitivity for detecting early stage HCC in clinical practice is poor. Blood-based biomarkers are a promising direction since they are more easily standardized and less resource intensive. Combining of multiple biomarkers is more likely to achieve the sensitivity required for a clinically useful screening algorithm and the longitudinal trajectory of biomarkers contains valuable information that should be utilized. We propose a multivariate parametric empirical Bayes (mPEB) screening approach that defines personalized thresholds for each patient at each screening visit to identify significant deviations that trigger additional testing with more sensitive imaging. The Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) trial provides a valuable source of data to study HCC screening algorithms. We study the performance of the mPEB algorithm applied to serum α -fetoprotein, a widely used HCC surveillance biomarker, and des- γ carboxy prothrombin, an HCC risk biomarker that is FDA approved but not used in practice in the United States. Using cross-validation, we found that the mPEB algorithm demonstrated moderate but improved sensitivity compared to alternative screening approaches. Future research will validate the clinical utility of the approach in larger cohort studies with additional biomarkers.

Bariatric surgery and the risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis and alcohol misuse.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Bariatric surgery is common, but alcohol misuse has been reported following these procedures. We aimed to determine if bariatric surgery is associated with increased risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis (AC) and alcohol misuse. METHODS: Retrospective observational analysis of obese adults with employer-sponsored insurance administrative claims from 2008 to 2016. Subjects with diagnosis codes for bariatric surgery were included. Primary outcome was risk of AC. Secondary outcome was risk of alcohol misuse. Bariatric surgery was divided into before 2008 and after 2008 to account for patients who had a procedure during the study period. Cox proportional hazard regression models using age as the time variable were used with interaction analyses for bariatric surgery and gender. RESULTS: A total of 194 130 had surgery from 2008 to 2016 while 209 090 patients had bariatric surgery prior to 2008. Age was 44.1 years, 61% women and enrolment was 3.7 years. A total of 4774 (0.07%) had AC. Overall risk of AC was lower for those who received sleeve gastrectomy and laparoscopic banding during the study period (HR 0.4, P <.001; HR 0.43, P =.02) and alcohol misuse increased for Roux-en-Y and sleeve gastrectomy recipients (HR 1.86 and 1.35, P <.001, respectively). In those who had surgery before 2008, women had increased risk of AC and alcohol misuse compared to women without bariatric surgery (HR 2.1 [95% CI: 1.79-2.41] for AC; HR 1.98 [95% CI 1.93-2.04]). CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery is associated with a short-term decreased risk of AC but potential long-term increased risk of AC in women. Post-operative alcohol surveillance is necessary to reduce this risk.

Incidence of Hepatitis B Virus Reactivation and Hepatotoxicity in Patients Receiving Long-term Treatment With Tumor Necrosis Factor Antagonists.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists are the first-line treatment for many autoimmune diseases. However, they have been associated with reactivation of hepatitis B virus (HBV). We determined the rate of HBV reactivation and hepatotoxicity grade 3 or 4 (HT ≥3) in patients treated with an anti-TNF agent for an autoimmune disease. METHODS: We collected data from 8887 adult patients in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California database who began treatment with TNF antagonists for autoimmune diseases (dermatologic, rheumatologic, or gastrointestinal) from 2001 through 2010, followed through December 2012. We obtained data on HBV infection (52% of patients were screened for HBV before treatment), demographic features, comorbidities, and use of immunosuppressive agents. HBV reactivation was defined as 1 of the following: >1 log increase in HBV DNA, HBV DNA-positive when previously negative, HBV DNA >2000 IU/mL if no baseline level was available, or reverse seroconversion. HT ≥3 was defined according to the National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria. We performed multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with HT ≥3. RESULTS: Twenty-three patients tested positive for HB surface antigen (HBsAg) at baseline and 9 of these had HBV reactivation; of the 4267 patients with unknown HBV status at baseline, 2 had HBV reactivation. None of the 178 patients who were HBsAg negative and positive for the hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc+) had HBV reactivation. HBV reactivation occurred in 1/5 HBsAg+ patients who received prophylactic antiviral therapy and 8/18 who did not (P = .61). No one with HBV reactivation had liver failure. HT ≥3 occurred in 273 patients (2.7%), but only 3 cases were attributed to HBV. Cirrhosis was significantly associated with HT ≥3 (P < .001). CONCLUSION: In a retrospective analysis of patients treated with TNF antagonists for autoimmune diseases, we found HBV reactivation in 39% of patients who were HBsAg+ before therapy, but not in any patients who were HBsAg-negative and anti-HBc+ before therapy. Patients should be screened for HBV infection before anti-TNF therapy; HBsAg+ patients should receive prophylactic antiviral therapy, but not HBsAg-negative, anti-HBc+ patients.

A Bayesian screening approach for hepatocellular carcinoma using multiple longitudinal biomarkers.

Advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has limited treatment options and poor survival, therefore early detection is critical to improving the survival of patients with HCC. Current guidelines for high-risk patients include ultrasound screenings every six months, but ultrasounds are operator dependent and not sensitive for early HCC. Serum α-Fetoprotein (AFP) is a widely used diagnostic biomarker, but it has limited sensitivity and is not elevated in all HCC cases so, we incorporate a second blood-based biomarker, des'γ carboxy-prothrombin (DCP), that has shown potential as a screening marker for HCC. The data from the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) Trial is a valuable source of data to study biomarker screening for HCC. We assume the trajectories of AFP and DCP follow a joint hierarchical mixture model with random changepoints that allows for distinct changepoint times and subsequent trajectories of each biomarker. The changepoint indicators are jointly modeled with a Markov Random Field distribution to help detect borderline changepoints. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to calculate posterior distributions, which are used in risk calculations among future patients and determine whether a patient has a positive screen. The screening algorithm was compared to alternatives in simulations studies under a range of possible scenarios and in the HALT-C Trial using cross-validation.

Assessing risk of fibrosis progression and liver-related clinical outcomes among patients with both early stage and advanced chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVE: Assessing risk of adverse outcomes among patients with chronic liver disease has been challenging due to non-linear disease progression. We previously developed accurate prediction models for fibrosis progression and clinical outcomes among patients with advanced chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The primary aim of this study was to validate fibrosis progression and clinical outcomes models among a heterogeneous patient cohort. DESIGN: Adults with CHC with ≥3 years follow-up and without hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver transplant (LT), HBV or HIV co-infection at presentation were analyzed (N = 1007). Outcomes included: 1) fibrosis progression 2) hepatic decompensation 3) HCC and 4) LT-free survival. Predictors included longitudinal clinical and laboratory data. Machine learning methods were used to predict outcomes in 1 and 3 years. RESULTS: The external cohort had a median age of 49.4 years (IQR 44.3-54.3); 61% were male, 80% white, and 79% had genotype 1. At presentation, 73% were treatment naïve and 31% had cirrhosis. Fibrosis progression occurred in 34% over a median of 4.9 years (IQR 3.2-7.6). Clinical outcomes occurred in 22% over a median of 4.4 years (IQR 3.2-7.6). Model performance for fibrosis progression was limited due to small sample size. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for 1 and 3-year risk of clinical outcomes was 0.78 (95% CI 0.73-0.83) and 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.81). CONCLUSION: Accurate assessments for risk of clinical outcomes can be obtained using routinely collected data across a heterogeneous cohort of patients with CHC. These methods can be applied to predict risk of progression in other chronic liver diseases.

Risk Assessment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatitis C in China and the USA.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C (HCV) infection is an increasingly common cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China. AIMS: We aimed to determine differences in demographic and behavioral profiles associated with HCC in HCV+ patients in China and the USA. METHODS: Consecutive HCV+ patients were recruited from centers in China and the USA. Clinical data and lifestyle profiles were obtained through standardized questionnaires. Multivariable analysis was conducted to determine factors associated with HCC diagnosis within groups. RESULTS: We included 41 HCC patients from China and 71 from the USA, and 931 non-HCC patients in China and 859 in China. Chinese patients with HCC were significantly younger, less likely to be male and to be obese than US patients with HCC (all p < 0.001). Chinese patients with HCC had a significantly lower rate of cirrhosis diagnosis (36.6 vs. 78.9%, p < 0.001); however, they also had a higher rate of hepatitis B core antibody positivity (63.4 vs. 36.8%, p = 0.007). In a multivariable analysis of the entire Chinese cohort, age > 55, male sex, the presence of diabetes, and time from maximum weight were associated with HCC, while tea consumption was associated with a decreased HCC risk (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.16-0.88). In the US cohort, age > 55, male sex, and cirrhosis were associated with HCC on multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: With the aging Chinese population and increasing rates of diabetes, there will likely be continued increase in the incidence of HCV-related HCC in China. The protective effect of tea consumption on HCC development deserves further validation.

Impact of an electronic health record alert in primary care on increasing hepatitis c screening and curative treatment for baby boomers.

Despite effective treatment for chronic hepatitis C, deficiencies in diagnosis and access to care preclude disease elimination. Screening of baby boomers remains low. The aims of this study were to assess the impact of an electronic health record-based prompt on hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening rates in baby boomers in primary care and access to specialty care and treatment among those newly diagnosed. We implemented an electronic health record-based "best practice advisory" (BPA) that prompted primary care providers to perform HCV screening for patients seen in primary care clinic (1) born between 1945 and 1965, (2) who lacked a prior diagnosis of HCV infection, and (3) who lacked prior documented anti-HCV testing. The BPA had associated educational materials, order set, and streamlined access to specialty care for newly diagnosed patients. Pre-BPA and post-BPA screening rates were compared, and care of newly diagnosed patients was analyzed. In the 3 years prior to BPA implementation, 52,660 baby boomers were seen in primary care clinics and 28% were screened. HCV screening increased from 7.6% for patients with a primary care provider visit in the 6 months prior to BPA to 72% over the 1 year post-BPA. Of 53 newly diagnosed patients, all were referred for specialty care, 11 had advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, 20 started treatment, and 9 achieved sustained virologic response thus far. CONCLUSION: Implementation of an electronic health record-based prompt increased HCV screening rates among baby boomers in primary care by 5-fold due to efficiency in determining needs for HCV screening and workflow design. Streamlined access to specialty care enabled patients with previously undiagnosed advanced disease to be cured. This intervention can be easily integrated into electronic health record systems to increase HCV diagnosis and linkage to care. (Hepatology 2017;66:1805-1813).

Acute Rejection Increases Risk of Graft Failure and Death in Recent Liver Transplant Recipients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute rejection is detrimental to most transplanted solid organs, but is considered to be less of a consequence for transplanted livers. We evaluated risk factors for and outcomes after biopsy-proven acute rejection (BPAR) based on an analysis of a more recent national sample of recipients of liver transplants from living and deceased donors. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Adult-to-Adult Living Donor Liver Transplantation Cohort Study (A2ALL) from 2003 through 2014 as the exploratory cohort and the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) from 2005 through 2013 as the validation cohort. We examined factors associated with time to first BPAR using multivariable Cox regression or discrete-survival analysis. Competing risks methods were used to compare causes of death and graft failure between recipients of living and deceased donors. RESULTS: At least 1 BPAR episode occurred in 239 of 890 recipients in A2ALL (26.9%) and 7066 of 45,423 recipients in SRTR (15.6%). In each database, risk of rejection was significantly lower when livers came from biologically related living donors (A2ALL hazard ratio [HR], 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.43-0.76; and SRTR HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.66-0.91) and higher in liver transplant recipients with primary biliary cirrhosis, of younger age, or with hepatitis C. In each database, BPAR was associated with significantly higher risks of graft failure and death. The risks were highest in the 12 month post-BPAR period in patients whose first episode occurred more than 1 year after liver transplantation: HRs for graft failure were 6.79 in A2ALL (95% CI, 2.64-17.45) and 4.41 in SRTR (95% CI, 3.71-5.23); HRs for death were 8.81 in A2ALL (95% CI, 3.37-23.04) and 3.94 in SRTR (95% CI, 3.22-4.83). In analyses of cause-specific mortality, associations were observed for liver-related (graft failure) causes of death but not for other causes. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to previous data, acute rejection after liver transplant is associated with significantly increased risk of graft failure, all-cause mortality, and graft failure-related death, regardless of primary liver disease etiology. Living donor liver transplantation from a biologically related donor is associated with decreased risk of rejection.

Recurrent primary sclerosing cholangitis in the Adult-to-Adult Living Donor Liver Transplantation Cohort Study: Comparison of risk factors between living and deceased donor recipients.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) recurs in 15%-25% of patients transplanted for PSC. In the United States, PSC transplant patients are more likely to receive an organ from a living donor (LD) than patients without PSC. Our aims were to (1) compare risk of PSC recurrence in LD versus deceased donor recipients and (2) identify risk factors for PSC recurrence. There were 241 living donor liver transplantations (LDLTs) and 65 deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) patients transplanted between 1998 and 2013 enrolled in the Adult-to-Adult Living Donor Liver Transplantation Cohort Study who were evaluated. PSC recurrence risk for LDLT and DDLT recipients was compared using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log-rank tests. Cox models were used to evaluate PSC risk factors. Overall PSC recurrence probabilities were 8.7% and 22.4% at 5 and 10 years after liver transplantation (LT), respectively. The risk of PSC recurrence was not significantly different for DDLT versus LDLT recipients (P = 0.36). For DDLT versus LDLT recipients, unadjusted 5- and 10-year PSC recurrence was 9.4% versus 9.5% and 36.9% versus 21.1%. Higher laboratory Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at LT, onset of a biliary complication, cholangiocarcinoma, and higher donor age were associated with increased risks of PSC recurrence: for MELD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.10 per MELD point, P = 0.002); for biliary complication (HR, 2.82; 95% CI, 1.28-6.25; P = 0.01); for cholangiocarcinoma (HR, 3.98; 95% CI, 1.43-11.09; P = 0.008); for donor age (per 5-years donor age; HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02-1.35; P = 0.02). Factors not significantly associated with PSC recurrence included the following: first-degree relative donor (P = 0.11), post-LT cytomegalovirus infection (P = 0.38), and acute rejection (P = 0.22). Risk of recurrent PSC was not significantly different for DDLT and LDLT recipients. Biliary complications, cholangiocarcinoma, MELD, and donor age were significantly associated with risk of PSC recurrence. Liver Transplantation 22 1214-1222 2016 AASLD.

Primary Care Physician Perspectives on Hepatitis C Management in the Era of Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Primary care physicians (PCPs) play a critical role in the care cascade for patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). AIM: To assess PCP knowledge and perspectives on CHC screening, diagnosis, referral, and treatment. METHODS: An anonymous survey was distributed to PCPs who participated in routine outpatient care at our hospital. RESULTS: Eighty (36 %) eligible PCPs completed the survey. More than half were females (60 %) aged 36-50 (55 %) from family (44 %) or internal (49 %) medicine. Overall, PCPs correctly identified high-risk populations for screening, though 19 % failed to identify baby boomers and 45 % failed to identify hemodialysis patients as populations to screen. Approximately half reported they were able to screen at risk patients <50 % of the time secondary to time constraints and difficulty assessing if patients had already been screened. 71 % of PCPs reported they refer all newly diagnosed patients to specialty care. 70 % of PCPs did not feel up to date with current treatment. The majority grossly underestimated efficacy, tolerability and ease of administration, and overestimated treatment duration. Only 9 % felt comfortable treating CHC, even those without cirrhosis. Practice patterns were influenced by specialty and Veterans Affairs Hospital affiliation. CONCLUSIONS: Although the majority of PCPs are up to date with CHC screening recommendations, few are able to routinely screen in practice. Most PCPs are not up to date with treatment and do not feel comfortable treating CHC. Interventions to overcome screening barriers and expand treatment into primary care settings are needed to maximize access to and use of curative therapies.

Admissions for hepatitis B reactivation in patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy remain unchanged from 1999 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: Reactivation of hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication in patients with chronic or past HBV infection receiving immunosuppressive therapy (IST) can be prevented through HBV screening and prophylactic antiviral therapy. We aimed to determine the occurrence of severe HBV reactivation secondary to IST in the era of HBV nucleos/tide analogs, the implicated IST, and outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective chart review of adult patients who were HBsAg+ and HBV DNA+ and had received IST within 90 days of admission to our hospital. RESULTS: Of 1446 patients with HBV diagnosis code admitted from 1999 to 2014, 17 had HBV reactivation, 8 of whom were admitted after 2009. Nine patients had hematologic conditions, three solid organ transplants, one hepatocellular carcinoma, and four other nonmalignant diseases. Implicated IST included chemotherapy, prednisone, antirejection therapies, budesonide, and a JAK-2 inhibitor. Three patients were screened for HBV prior to IST, but none was given antiviral prophylaxis. Six patients were initially admitted to other facilities, only two were tested for HBV, and one was started on antiviral therapy prior to transfer. At admission to our hospital, all 17 were HBsAg+ and HBV DNA+. Despite antiviral therapy, five patients decompensated, three died, and two had a liver transplant. CONCLUSION: Severe HBV reactivation requiring hospital admission continues to occur because HBV screening was not performed and a prophylactic antiviral not given to those who tested positive. HBV reactivation can occur in a variety of clinical settings and in association with drugs not considered to be highly immunosuppressive.

Improved Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma by Using a Longitudinal Alpha-Fetoprotein Screening Algorithm.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has limited treatment options when diagnosed at advanced stages; therefore, early detection is critical to reduce mortality. There is disagreement about the value of α-fetoprotein (AFP) in HCC surveillance. We aim to improve the sensitivity of AFP in HCC surveillance by using an algorithm that incorporates screening history to define patient-specific thresholds for positive a screen. METHODS: De-identified data from the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) trial, which enrolled 1050 patients with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who were prospectively followed every 3-6 months, were analyzed. AFP was assayed at each visit, and ultrasonography was performed every 6-12 months. A panel adjudicated the diagnosis of HCC. A parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) screening algorithm, which incorporates screening history, was compared with a single threshold approach for interpreting AFP results. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 80 months, 88 patients (48 of 427 with cirrhosis and 40 of 621 with advanced fibrosis) were diagnosed with HCC. PEB improved the sensitivity of AFP for detecting all HCC from 60.4% to 77.1% (P < .0005) in patients with cirrhosis and from 72.5% to 87.5% (P = .0015) in patients with advanced fibrosis, when the false-positive rate among all screenings was set at 10%. PEB algorithm detected HCC 1.7-1.9 years earlier in the cirrhosis group and 1.4-1.7 years earlier in the advanced fibrosis group, compared with single threshold approach. CONCLUSIONS: PEB increases the sensitivity of AFP testing and detects HCC earlier among hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis. These data should prompt a reevaluation of how AFP is used in combination with ultrasound in HCC surveillance.