How many future dementia cases would be missed by a high-risk screening program? A retrospective cohort study in a population-based cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Risk prediction models aim to identify those at high risk to receive targeted interventions. We aimed to identify the proportion of future dementia cases that would be missed by a high-risk screening program. METHODS: We identified validated dementia risk prediction models from systematic reviews. We applied these to European Prospective Investigation of Cancer Norfolk, a large population-based cohort of 30,387 individuals with 29 years of linked healthcare data. RESULTS: A maximum of 16.0% (14.7,17.2) and 31.9% (30.2,33.5) of cases arose from the highest risk decile and quintiles, respectively. For every 1000 people considered to be at high risk, a maximum of 235 (215, 255) developed dementia. DISCUSSION: Seven in every 10 cases of dementia arose from people at normal risk, and eight in every 10 people at high risk did not develop dementia. Individual-level prevention approaches targeted at high-risk groups are unlikely to produce large reductions in disease incidence at the population level. HIGHLIGHTS: Dementia, a significant public health challenge, is not an inevitability of aging; risk reduction is possible. Several dementia risk prediction models have been validated in the general population, and these aim to identify people at high risk of the disease who can then be targeted with primary prevention interventions. An alternative prevention approach is to focus on interventions that reduce risk across the population, irrespective of risk status. In our study, seven out of every ten people who developed dementia during 29 year follow-up were classed as 'normal-risk' (rather than 'high risk') at baseline. Eight out of every ten people who were at high risk at baseline did not go on to develop dementia. Even if effective, dementia risk reduction efforts based upon targeted high-risk approaches are unlikely to reduce incidence of disease at the population level.

Smoking, Corneal Biomechanics, and Glaucoma: Results From Two Large Population-Based Cohorts.

Purpose: Smoking may influence measured IOP through an effect on corneal biomechanics, but it is unclear whether this factor translates into an increased risk for glaucoma. This study aimed to examine the association of cigarette smoking with corneal biomechanical properties and glaucoma-related traits, and to probe potential causal effects using Mendelian randomization (MR). Methods: Cross-sectional analyses within the UK Biobank (UKB) and Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA) cohorts. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were used to assess associations of smoking (status, intensity, and duration) with corneal hysteresis (CH), corneal resistance factor, IOP, inner retinal thicknesses, and glaucoma. Two-sample MR analyses were performed. Results: Overall, 68,738 UKB (mean age, 56.7 years; 54.7% women) and 22 845 CLSA (mean age, 62.7 years; 49.1% women) participants were included. Compared with nonsmokers, smokers had a higher CH (UKB, +0.48 mm Hg; CLSA, +0.57 mm Hg; P < 0.001) and corneal resistance factor (UKB, +0.47 mm Hg; CLSA, +0.60 mm Hg; P < 0.001) with evidence of a dose-response effect in both studies. Differential associations with Goldmann-correlated IOP (UKB, +0.25 mm Hg; CLSA, +0.36 mm Hg; P < 0.001) and corneal-compensated IOP (UKB, -0.28 mm Hg; CLSA, -0.32 mm Hg; P ≤ 0.001) were observed. Smoking was not associated with inner retinal thicknesses or glaucoma status in either study. MR provided evidence for a causal effect of smoking on corneal biomechanics, especially higher CH. Conclusions: Cigarette smoking seems to increase corneal biomechanical resistance to deformation, but there was little evidence to support a relationship with glaucoma. This outcome may result in an artefactual association with measured IOP and could account for discordant results with glaucoma in previous epidemiological studies.

Association Between Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Thickness and Incident Dementia in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness may reflect cerebral status. OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the relationship between RNFL thickness and incident all-cause dementia in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) Eye Study. METHODS: Glaucoma detection with variable corneal compensation (GDx-VCC) and Heidelberg Retinal Tomograph II (HRT II) derived global mean RNFL thickness from dementia-free participants at baseline within the EPIC-Norfolk Eye Study were analyzed. Incident dementia was identified through linkage to electronic medical records. Cox proportional hazard mixed-effects regression models adjusted for key confounders were used to examine the associations between RNFL thickness and incident dementia in four separate models. RESULTS: 6,239 participants were included with 322 cases of incident dementia and mean age of 67.5-years old, with 49.7% women (median follow-up 13.2-years, interquartile range (11.7 to 14.6 years). Greater RNFL thickness (GDx-VCC) was not significantly associated with a lower risk of incident dementia in the full adjusted model [HR per quartile increase 0.95; 95% CI 0.82-1.10]. Similarly, RNFL thickness assessed with HRT II was also not associated with incident dementia in any model (full adjusted model; HR per quartile increase: 1.06; [95% CI 0.93-1.19]. Gender did not modify any associations under study. CONCLUSION: GDx-VCC and HRT II derived RNFL thickness are unlikely to be useful predictors of incident dementia. Higher resolution optical imaging technologies may clarify whether there are useful relationships between neuro-retinal morphology and brain measures.

Food Processing and Risk of Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis: A European Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Industrial foods have been associated with increased risks of several chronic conditions. We investigated the relationship between the degree of food processing and risks of Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. METHODS: Analyses included 413,590 participants (68.6% women; mean baseline age, 51.7 y) from 8 European countries. Dietary data were collected at baseline from validated country-specific dietary questionnaires. Associations between proportions of unprocessed/minimally processed and ultraprocessed food intake and CD and UC risks were estimated using Cox models to obtain hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Models were stratified by center, age, and sex, and adjusted for smoking status, body mass index, physical activity, energy intake, educational level, and alcohol consumption. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 13.2 years, 179 incident cases of CD and 431 incident cases of UC were identified. The risk of CD was lower in people consuming high proportions of unprocessed/minimally processed foods (adjusted HR for the highest vs lowest quartile: 0.57; 95% CI, 0.35-0.93; P trend < .01), particularly fruits and vegetables (adjusted HRs, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.34-0.87 and 0.55; 95% CI, 0.34-0.91, respectively). There was no association between unprocessed/minimally processed food intake and the risk of UC. No association was detected between ultraprocessed food consumption and CD or UC risks. CONCLUSIONS: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, consumption of unprocessed/minimally processed foods was associated with a lower risk of CD. No association between UC risk and food processing was found.

Artificial intelligence-enabled retinal vasculometry for prediction of circulatory mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke.

AIMS: We examine whether inclusion of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled retinal vasculometry (RV) improves existing risk algorithms for incident stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) and circulatory mortality. METHODS: AI-enabled retinal vessel image analysis processed images from 88 052 UK Biobank (UKB) participants (aged 40-69 years at image capture) and 7411 European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk participants (aged 48-92). Retinal arteriolar and venular width, tortuosity and area were extracted. Prediction models were developed in UKB using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression for circulatory mortality, incident stroke and MI, and externally validated in EPIC-Norfolk. Model performance was assessed using optimism adjusted calibration, C-statistics and R2 statistics. Performance of Framingham risk scores (FRS) for incident stroke and incident MI, with addition of RV to FRS, were compared with a simpler model based on RV, age, smoking status and medical history (antihypertensive/cholesterol lowering medication, diabetes, prevalent stroke/MI). RESULTS: UKB prognostic models were developed on 65 144 participants (mean age 56.8; median follow-up 7.7 years) and validated in 5862 EPIC-Norfolk participants (67.6, 9.1 years, respectively). Prediction models for circulatory mortality in men and women had optimism adjusted C-statistics and R2 statistics between 0.75-0.77 and 0.33-0.44, respectively. For incident stroke and MI, addition of RV to FRS did not improve model performance in either cohort. However, the simpler RV model performed equally or better than FRS. CONCLUSION: RV offers an alternative predictive biomarker to traditional risk-scores for vascular health, without the need for blood sampling or blood pressure measurement. Further work is needed to examine RV in population screening to triage individuals at high-risk.

The Association of Female Reproductive Factors with Glaucoma and Related Traits: A Systematic Review.

TOPIC: This systematic review summarizes evidence for associations between female reproductive factors (age at menarche, parity, oral contraceptive [OC] use, age at menopause, and postmenopausal hormone [PMH] use) and intraocular pressure (IOP) or open-angle glaucoma (OAG). CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Understanding the associations between female reproductive factors and glaucoma may shed light on the disease pathogenesis and aid clinical prediction and personalized treatment strategies. Importantly, some factors are modifiable, which may lead to new therapies. METHODS: Two reviewers independently extracted articles in MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases to identify relevant studies. Eligibility criteria included studies with human subjects aged > 18 years; a measured outcome of either IOP or OAG; a cohort, case-control, cross-sectional, or randomized controlled trial design; a reported measure of association, such as the hazard ratio, relative risk, odds ratio, or mean difference, with an associated confidence interval; and a measured exposure of at least 1 of the following variables: age at menarche, parity, OC use, age at menopause, or PMH use. RESULTS: We included a total of 27 studies. Substantial differences in study designs, exposure and treatment levels, treatment durations, and variable reporting precluded a meaningful quantitative synthesis of the identified studies. Overall, relatively consistent associations between PMH use and a lower IOP were identified. Estrogen-only PMH use may be associated with lower OAG risk, which may be modified by race. No significant associations were found with combined estrogen-and-progesterone PMH use. No strong associations between parity or age at menarche and glaucoma were found, but a younger age at menopause was associated with an increased glaucoma risk, and adverse associations were identified with a longer duration of OC use, though no overall association with OC use was found. CONCLUSIONS: The association between PMH use and lower IOP or OAG risk is a potentially clinically relevant and modifiable risk factor and should be investigated further, although this needs to be interpreted in the context of a high risk of bias across included studies. Future research should examine associations with IOP specifically and how the relationship between genetic factors and OAG risks may be influenced by female reproductive factors.

The Association between Serum Lipids and Intraocular Pressure in 2 Large United Kingdom Cohorts.

PURPOSE: Serum lipids are modifiable, routinely collected blood test features associated with cardiovascular health. We examined the association of commonly collected serum lipid measures (total cholesterol [TC], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and triglycerides) with intraocular pressure (IOP). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study in the UK Biobank and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk cohorts. PARTICIPANTS: We included 94 323 participants from the UK Biobank (mean age, 57 years) and 6230 participants from the EPIC-Norfolk (mean age, 68 years) cohorts with data on TC, HDL-C, LDL-C, and triglycerides collected between 2006 and 2009. METHODS: Multivariate linear regression adjusting for demographic, lifestyle, anthropometric, medical, and ophthalmic covariables was used to examine the associations of serum lipids with corneal-compensated IOP (IOPcc). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Corneal-compensated IOP. RESULTS: Higher levels of TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C were associated independently with higher IOPcc in both cohorts after adjustment for key demographic, medical, and lifestyle factors. For each 1-standard deviation increase in TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C, IOPcc was higher by 0.09 mmHg (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.06-0.11 mmHg; P < 0.001), 0.11 mmHg (95% CI, 0.08-0.13 mmHg; P < 0.001), and 0.07 mmHg (95% CI, 0.05-0.09 mmHg; P < 0.001), respectively, in the UK Biobank cohort. In the EPIC-Norfolk cohort, each 1-standard deviation increase in TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C was associated with a higher IOPcc by 0.19 mmHg (95% CI, 0.07-0.31 mmHg; P = 0.001), 0.14 mmHg (95% CI, 0.03-0.25 mmHg; P = 0.016), and 0.17 mmHg (95% CI, 0.06-0.29 mmHg; P = 0.003). An inverse association between triglyceride levels and IOP in the UK Biobank (-0.05 mmHg; 95% CI, -0.08 to -0.03; P < 0.001) was not replicated in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort (P = 0.30). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that serum TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C are associated positively with IOP in 2 United Kingdom cohorts and that triglyceride levels may be associated negatively. Future research is required to assess whether these associations are causal in nature.

Meat Intake Is Associated with a Higher Risk of Ulcerative Colitis in a Large European Prospective Cohort Studyø.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to investigate the association between protein intake and risk of inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. METHODS: A total of 413 593 participants from eight European countries were included. Dietary data were collected at baseline from validated food frequency questionnaires. Dietary data were calibrated to correct errors in measures related to each country-specific questionnaire. Associations between proteins [total, animal, and vegetable] or food sources of animal proteins, and IBD risk were estimated by Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 16 years, 177 patients with Crohn's disease [CD] and 418 with ulcerative colitis [UC], were identified. There was no association between total protein, animal protein, or vegetable protein intakes and CD or UC risks. Total meat and red meat intakes were associated with UC risk (hazard ratio [HR] for the 4th vs 1st quartile = 1.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.99-1.98, p-trend = 0.01; and 1.61, 95% CI = 1.10-2.36, p-trend = 0.007, respectively]. There was no association between other food sources of animal protein [processed meat, fish, shellfish, eggs, poultry] and UC. We found no association between food sources of animal proteins and CD risk. CONCLUSIONS: Meat and red meat consumptions are associated with higher risks of UC. These results support dietary counselling of low meat intake in people at high-risk of IBD.

Visual Impairment and Risk of Dementia in 2 Population-Based Prospective Cohorts: UK Biobank and EPIC-Norfolk.

Visual impairment has emerged as a potential modifiable risk factor for dementia. However, there is a lack of large studies with objective measures of vision and with more than 10 years of follow-up. We investigated whether visual impairment is associated with an increased risk of incident dementia in UK Biobank and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk). In both cohorts, visual acuity was measured using a "logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution" (LogMAR) chart and categorized as no (≤0.30 LogMAR), mild (>0.3 to ≤0.50 LogMAR), and moderate to severe (>0.50 LogMAR) impairment. Dementia was ascertained through linkage to electronic medical records. After restricting to those aged ≥60 years, without prevalent dementia and with eye measures available, the analytic samples consisted of 62 206 UK Biobank and 7 337 EPIC-Norfolk participants, respectively. In UK Biobank and EPIC-Norfolk, respectively, 1 113 and 517 participants developed dementia over 11 and 15 years of follow-up. Using multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models, the hazard ratios for mild and moderate to severe visual impairment were 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.92-1.72) and 2.16 (95% CI: 1.37-3.40), in UK Biobank, and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.72-1.53) and 1.93 (95% CI: 1.05-3.56) in EPIC-Norfolk, compared to no visual impairment. When excluding participants censored within 5 years of follow-up or with prevalent poor or fair self-reported health, the direction of the associations remained similar for moderate impairment but was not statistically significant. Our findings suggest visual impairment might be a promising target for dementia prevention; however, the possibility of reverse causation cannot be excluded.

Long Term Prognostic Impact of Sex-specific Longitudinal Changes in Blood Pressure. The EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Cohort Study.

AIMS: We aimed to determine the sex differences in longitudinal systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) trajectories in mid-life and delineate the associations between these and mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular, and non-cardiovascular) and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in old age. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants were selected from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer, Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study. Sex-specific trajectories were determined using group-based trajectory models using three clinic BP measurements acquired between 1993 and 2012 (mean exposure ∼12.9 years). Multivariable Cox regressions determined the associations between trajectories and incident outcomes over the follow-up (median follow-up 9.4 years). A total of 2897 men (M) and 3819 women (F) were included. At baseline, women were younger (F-55.5, M-57.1), had a worse cardiometabolic profile and were less likely to receive primary CVD prevention including antihypertensive treatment (F-36.0%, M-42.0%). Over the exposure period, women had lower SBP trajectories while men exhibited more pronounced SBP decreases over this period. Over the follow-up period, women had lower mortality (F-11.9%, M-20.5%) and CVD incidence (F-19.8%, M-29.6%). Compared to optimal SBP (≤120 mmHg) and DBP (≤70 mmHg) trajectories, hypertensive trajectories were associated with increased mortality and incident CVD in both men and women during follow-up at univariable level. These associations were nevertheless not maintained upon extensive confounder adjustment including antihypertensive therapies. CONCLUSION: We report sex disparities in CVD prevention which may relate to worse cardiometabolic profiles and less pronounced longitudinal SBP decreases in women. Effective anti-hypertensivetherapy may offset the adverse outcomes associated with prolonged exposure to high blood pressure.

Risk factors for previously undiagnosed primary open-angle glaucoma: the EPIC-Norfolk Eye Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Undiagnosed glaucoma is an invisible but important public health issue. At least half of glaucoma cases are estimated to be undiagnosed in western populations. The aim of this study is to examine risk factors for previously undiagnosed primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study within the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk Eye Study, a large-scale cohort study in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: 314 study participants with POAG in either eye. METHODS: Logistic regression was used to examine associations with previously undiagnosed POAG compared with previously diagnosed POAG. The factors examined included sociodemographic, ocular, physical and economic factors that could be barriers to eye care access. RESULTS: 217 participants had previously diagnosed POAG and 107 participants were newly diagnosed with POAG during the study. After adjusting for covariables, the factors significantly associated with previously undiagnosed POAG were: a lower pretreatment intraocular pressure (IOP) (OR 0.71/mm Hg, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.80, p<0.0001), and to have reported no problems with their eyesight (OR 0.03, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.10, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors for previously undiagnosed POAG identified in this study highlight the over-reliance on IOP level in glaucoma screening and the risk of missing glaucoma among lower IOP cases. It also suggests a role in improving glaucoma awareness in the community.

Association between serum secretory phospholipase A2 and risk of ischaemic stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previous literature has demonstrated an association between high serum levels of type II secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2) concentration and an increased risk of coronary artery disease. However, such association has not been established in terms of ischaemic stroke risk. The aim was to evaluate the association between both sPLA2 concentration and activity as continuous variables with risk of future ischaemic stroke. METHODS: A nested case-control study was conducted using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk study. Cases (n = 145) in the current study were participants who developed ischaemic stroke during follow-up, with controls (n = 290) matched in a 2:1 ratio based on age and sex. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS (version 25.0) software. Logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for ischaemic stroke. RESULTS: After adjusting for a wide array of cardiovascular confounders, sPLA2 activity was found to be associated with an increased risk of ischaemic stroke using both multiple imputations with chained equations and complete case analysis: OR 1.20 (95% CI 1.01-1.43) and OR 1.23 (95% CI 1.01-1.49), respectively. However, sPLA2 concentration was not found to be associated with increased risk of ischaemic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: The activity of sPLA2, but not sPLA2 concentration, is associated with an increased risk of future ischaemic stroke. This finding may be significant in risk group stratification, allowing targeted prophylactic treatment, or the development of novel therapeutic agents.

Alcohol Consumption and Incident Cataract Surgery in Two Large UK Cohorts.

PURPOSE: To examine the association of alcohol consumption and type of alcoholic beverage with incident cataract surgery in 2 large cohorts. DESIGN: Longitudinal, observational study. PARTICIPANTS: We included 469 387 participants of UK Biobank with a mean age of 56 years and 23 162 participants of European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk with a mean age of 59 years. METHODS: Self-reported alcohol consumption at baseline was ascertained by a touchscreen questionnaire in UK Biobank and a food-frequency questionnaire in EPIC-Norfolk. Cases were defined as participants undergoing cataract surgery in either eye as ascertained via data linkage to National Health Service procedure statistics. We excluded participants with cataract surgery up to 1 year after the baseline assessment visit or those with self-reported cataract at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations of alcohol consumption with incident cataract surgery, adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, Townsend deprivation index, body mass index (BMI), smoking, and diabetes status. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident cataract surgery. RESULTS: There were 19 011 (mean cohort follow-up of 95 months) and 4573 (mean cohort follow-up of 193 months) incident cases of cataract surgery in UK Biobank and EPIC-Norfolk, respectively. Compared with nondrinkers, drinkers were less likely to undergo cataract surgery in UK Biobank (hazard ratio [HR], 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-0.93) and EPIC-Norfolk (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.97) after adjusting for covariables. Among alcohol consumers, greater alcohol consumption was associated with a reduced risk of undergoing cataract surgery in EPIC-Norfolk (P < 0.001), whereas a U-shaped association was observed in the UK Biobank. Compared with nondrinkers, subgroup analysis by type of alcohol beverage showed the strongest protective association with wine consumption; the risk of incident cataract surgery was 23% and 14% lower among those in the highest category of wine consumption in EPIC-Norfolk and UK Biobank, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a lower risk of undergoing cataract surgery with low to moderate alcohol consumption. The association was particularly apparent with wine consumption. We cannot exclude the possibility of residual confounding, and further studies are required to determine whether this association is causal in nature.

Positive Associations of Dietary Intake and Plasma Concentrations of Vitamin E with Skeletal Muscle Mass, Heel Bone Ultrasound Attenuation and Fracture Risk in the EPIC-Norfolk Cohort.

The prevalence of sarcopenia, frailty and fractures is increasing. Prevention options are limited, but dietary factors including vitamin E have the potential to confer some protection. This study investigated cross-sectional associations between dietary and plasma concentrations of vitamin E with indices of skeletal muscle mass (SMM) (n = 14,179 and 4283, respectively) and bone density (n = 14,694 and 4457, respectively) and longitudinal fracture risk (n = 25,223 and 7291, respectively) in European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk participants, aged 39-79 years at baseline. Participants completed a health and lifestyle questionnaire, a 7-day diet diary (7dDD) and had anthropometric measurements taken. Fat-free mass (as a SMM proxy) was measured using bioimpedance and bone density was measured using calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and incident fractures over 18.5 years of follow-up. Associations between indices of SMM, BUA and fracture risk were investigated by quintiles of dietary vitamin E intake or plasma concentrations. Positive trends in SMM indices and BUA were apparent across dietary quintiles for both sexes, with interquintile differences of 0.88%-1.91% (p < 0.001), and protective trends for total and hip fracture risk. Circulating plasma α- and γ-tocopherol results matched the overall dietary findings. Dietary vitamin E may be important for musculoskeletal health but further investigation is required to fully understand the relationships of plasma tocopherols.

Baseline anticholinergic burden from medications predicts poorer baseline and long-term health-related quality of life in 16 675 men and women of EPIC-Norfolk prospective population-based cohort study.

PURPOSE: Previous studies investigating the association between anticholinergic burden (ACB) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) showed conflicting results and focused on older adults or specific patient groups only. METHODS: Participants from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk study were divided into three groups according to their ACB from medications at baseline, representing ACB scores of 0, 1 and ≥2. Outcomes of interest were the physical and mental component summary scores (PCS and MCS) of the Short Form-36, collected at 18 months from the baseline and again after a mean 13 years of follow-up. Linear regression and logistic regression for cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between ACB and HRQoL were constructed adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: A total of 16 675 participants, mean age 58.9 ± 9.1 years (55.6% female) and 7133 participants, mean age at follow-up 69.1 ± 8.7 years (56.8% female), were included in the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, respectively. In cross-sectional analysis, higher anticholinergic burden was associated with higher odds of being in the lowest quartile of PCS (ACB = 1; OR, 1.85[1.64, 2.09] and ACB ≥ 2:2.19[1.85, 2.58] and MCS (ACB = 1:1.47[1.30, 1.66] and ACB ≥ 2:1.68[1.42, 1.98]). In longitudinal analysis, higher anticholinergic burden was similarly associated with higher odds of being in the lowest quartile of PCS (ACB = 1:1.56[1.24, 1.95] and ACB ≥ 2:1.48[1.07, 2.03]) compared with ACB 0 group. The association with MCS scores did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSION: The use of anticholinergic medications is associated with both short and long-term poorer physical functions but association with mental functioning appears more short-term.

Calcium intake, calcium supplementation and cardiovascular disease and mortality in the British population: EPIC-norfolk prospective cohort study and meta-analysis.

The role of dietary calcium in cardiovascular disease prevention is unclear. We aimed to determine the association between calcium intake and incident cardiovascular disease and mortality. Data were extracted from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer, Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk). Multivariable Cox regressions analysed associations between calcium intake (dietary and supplemental) and cardiovascular disease (myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, aortic stenosis, peripheral vascular disease) and mortality (cardiovascular and all-cause). The results of this study were pooled with those from published prospective cohort studies in a meta-analsyis, stratifying by average calcium intake using a 700 mg/day threshold. A total of 17,968 participants aged 40-79 years were followed up for a median of 20.36 years (20.32-20.38). Compared to the first quintile of calcium intake (< 770 mg/day), intakes between 771 and 926 mg/day (second quintile) and 1074-1254 mg/day (fourth quintile) were associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR 0.91 (0.83-0.99) and 0.85 (0.77-0.93), respectively) and cardiovascular mortality [HR 0.95 (0.87-1.04) and 0.93 (0.83-1.04)]. Compared to the first quintile of calcium intake, second, third, fourth, but not fifth quintiles were associated with fewer incident strokes: respective HR 0.84 (0.72-0.97), 0.83 (0.71-0.97), 0.78 (0.66-0.92) and 0.95 (0.78-1.15). The meta-analysis results suggest that high levels of calcium intake were associated with decreased all-cause mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality, regardless of average calcium intake. Calcium supplementation was associated with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality amongst women, but not men. Moderate dietary calcium intake may protect against cardiovascular and all-cause mortality and incident stroke. Calcium supplementation may reduce mortality in women.

Long-term effects of gestational diabetes on bone mineral density and fracture risk: Analysis of the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk) population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a common pregnancy complication. This study aims to investigate the association between a history of GDM and bone mineral density (BMD), fractures, and falls in later life. STUDY DESIGN: We used data from the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk) where BMD at calcaneum was measured at second health check (1997-2000) using broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and velocity of sound (VOS) in 7,515 women. Fractures and falls were documented from hospital admissions data via linkage with ENCORE (East Norfolk Commission Record) and history of GDM from health questionnaires at baseline. We examined the relationship between GDM and BUA/VOS using linear regression. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for incident fractures and falls, controlling for age, BMI, smoking status, physical activity, area deprivation, self-reported stroke, use of diuretics, calcium and vitamin D supplements, social class and education, statin and total blood cholesterol, prevalent diabetes, hormone therapy and menopausal status. RESULTS: History of GDM (n = 183) was not statistically significantly associated with BUA/VOS in fully adjusted linear regression models with unstandardised beta coefficients (standard error): -0.37 (1.40) and -5.41 (3.48). GDM was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with risk of hip and all fractures, fully adjusted HRs(95 %CI) 2.46(1.54-3.92) and 1.60(1.09-2.35), respectively. Median follow-up from first live birth to date of admission was 53 and 52 years, respectively. CONCLUSION: There was an association between history of GDM and risk of any fracture as well as hip fracture specifically. Further research is required to confirm this.

Is there a dose-response relationship between musical instrument playing and later-life cognition? A cohort study using EPIC-Norfolk data.

INTRODUCTION: Musical instrument playing provides intellectual stimulation, which is hypothesised to generate cognitive reserve that protects against cognitive impairment. Studies to date have classified musicianship as a binary entity. This investigation draws on the dataset of the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer Norfolk study to examine the effect of frequency of playing on later-life cognition. METHODS: We compared three categorisations of self-reported musical playing frequency in late mid-life (12-month period) against cognitive performance measured after a 4-11 year delay, adjusted for relevant health and social confounders. Logistic regression models estimated the adjusted association between frequency of musical playing and the likelihood of being in the top and bottom cognitive deciles. RESULTS: A total of 5,693 participants (745 musicians) provided data on music playing, cognition and all co-variables. Classification of musicianship by frequency of playing demonstrated key differences in socio-demographic factors. Musicians outperformed non-musicians in cognition generally. Compared with non-musicians, frequent musicians had 80% higher odds of being in the top cognitive decile (OR 1.80 [95% CI 1.19-2.73]), whereas musicians playing at any frequency had 29% higher odds (95% CI 1.03-1.62). There was evidence of a threshold effect, rather than a linear dose-response relationship. DISCUSSION: This study supports a positive association between late mid-life musical instrument playing and later-life cognition, although causation cannot be assumed. Musicians playing frequently demonstrated the best cognition. 'Musicians' are a heterogeneous group and frequency of music playing seems a more informative measure than binary classification. Ideally, this more nuanced measure would be collected for different life course phases.

Anticholinergic medication exposure predicts poor physical capability: Findings from a large prospective cohort study in England.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether anticholinergic medication exposure in middle and late life is associated with physical capability. STUDY DESIGN: We used data from 8477 men and women who had enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk study at baseline (1HC; 1993-1997) and who had attended its third health examination (3HC; 2004-2010). Medication history at the 1HC and 3HC was used to score participants according to the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) Scale at baseline and 3HC; participants were categorised as ACB = 0, ACB = 1, ACB>2. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: At 3HC, physical capability was objectively measured by: usual walking speed, maximum grip strength, timed chair stands speed (TCSS) and standing balance. Linear and logistic regression models examined prospective and cross-sectional associations between ACB and physical capability, controlling for co-morbidity, sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: The analyses included 3386 men and 4110 women who were 56.4 (SD 7.9) and 55.0 (7.7) years old respectively at baseline and 69.4 (8.1) and 67.9 (8.0) years old at follow-up. Significant cross-sectional and prospective relationships were observed for all physical capability measures in women, except grip strength. For example, women with ACB ≥ 2 compared with ACB = 0 at baseline had 0.07 m/s (95 % CI -0.11, -0.03) slower usual walking speed, 2.61 stands/min (-4.17, -1.05) slower TCSS and higher odds of being unable to complete a tandem stand (odds ratio 2.40, 95 % CI 1.53, 3.76). These trends were observed in men but were less consistent in prospective analyses. CONCLUSION: Exposure to anticholinergic medication predicts poor physical capability and is a potentially reversible risk factor.