Simulating and estimating agreement in the presence of multiple raters and covariates.

Cohen's and Fleiss's kappa are popular estimators for assessing agreement among two and multiple raters, respectively, for a binary response. While additional methods have been developed to account for multiple raters and covariates, they are not always applicable, rarely used, and none simplify to Cohen's kappa. Furthermore, there are no methods to simulate Bernoulli observations under the kappa agreement structure such that the developed methods could be adequately assessed. This manuscript overcomes these shortfalls. First, we developed a model-based estimator for kappa that accommodates multiple raters and covariates through a generalized linear mixed model and encompasses Cohen's kappa as a special case. Second, we created a framework to simulate dependent Bernoulli observations that upholds all 2-tuple pair of rater's kappa agreement structure and includes covariates. We used this framework to assess our method when kappa was nonzero. Simulations showed that Cohen's and Fleiss's kappa estimates were inflated unlike our model-based kappa. We analyzed an Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging study and the classic cervical cancer pathology study. The proposed model-based kappa and advancement in simulation methodology demonstrates that the popular approaches of Cohen's and Fleiss's kappa are poised to yield invalid conclusions while our work overcomes shortfalls, leading to improved inferences.

First-Line Immunotherapy with Check-Point Inhibitors: Prospective Assessment of Cognitive Function.

Approximately 40% of patients with cancer are eligible for check-point inhibitor (CPI) therapy. Little research has examined the potential cognitive impact of CPIs. First-line CPI therapy offers a unique research opportunity without chemotherapy-related confounders. The purpose of this prospective, observational pilot was to (1) demonstrate the feasibility of prospective recruitment, retention, and neurocognitive assessment for older adults receiving first-line CPI(s) and (2) provide preliminary evidence of changes in cognitive function associated with CPI(s). Patients receiving first-line CPI(s) (CPI Group) were assessed at baseline (n = 20) and 6 months (n = 13) for self-report of cognitive function and neurocognitive test performance. Results were compared to age-matched controls without cognitive impairment assessed annually by the Alzheimer's Disease Research Center (ADRC). Plasma biomarkers were measured at baseline and 6 months for the CPI Group. Estimated differences for CPI Group scores prior to initiating CPIs (baseline) trended to lower performance on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment-Blind (MOCA-Blind) test compared to the ADRC controls (p = 0.066). Controlling for age, the CPI Group's 6-months MOCA-Blind performance was lower than the ADRC control group's 12-months performance (p = 0.011). No significant differences in biomarkers were detected between baseline and 6 months, although significant correlations were noted for biomarker change and cognitive performance at 6 months. IFNγ, IL-1ß, IL-2, FGF2, and VEGF were inversely associated with Craft Story Recall performance (p < 0.05), e.g., higher levels correlated with poorer memory performance. Higher IGF-1 and VEGF correlated with better letter-number sequencing and digit-span backwards performance, respectively. Unexpected inverse correlation was noted between IL-1α and Oral Trail-Making Test B completion time. CPI(s) may have a negative impact on some neurocognitive domains and warrant further investigation. A multi-site study design may be crucial to fully powering prospective investigation of the cognitive impact of CPIs. Establishment of a multi-site observational registry from collaborating cancer centers and ADRCs is recommended.

Prognostic Value of Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is characterized by progressive cyst growth and a loss of functioning renal mass, but a decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and onset of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) occur late in the disease course. There is therefore a great need for early prognostic biomarkers in this disorder. METHODS: We measured baseline serum fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) levels in 192 patients with ADPKD from the Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of PKD (CRISP) cohort that were followed for a median of 13 years and tested the association between FGF23 levels and change over time in height-adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV), GFR, and time to the composite endpoints of ESRD, death, and doubling of serum creatinine. RESULTS: Patients in the highest quartile for baseline FGF23 level had a higher rate of increase in htTKV (0.95% per year, P = 0.0016), and faster rate of decline in GFR (difference of -1.03 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year, P = 0.005) compared with the lowest quartile, after adjusting for other covariates, including htTKV and genotype. The highest quartile of FGF23 was also associated with a substantial increase in risk for the composite endpoint of ESRD, death, or doubling of serum creatinine (hazard ratio [HR] of 2.45 in the fully adjusted model, P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: FGF23 is a prognostic biomarker for disease progression and clinically important outcomes in ADPKD, and has additive value to established imaging and genetic biomarkers.

Safety and target engagement profile of two oxaloacetate doses in Alzheimer's patients.

INTRODUCTION: Brain bioenergetics are defective in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Preclinical studies find oxaloacetate (OAA) enhances bioenergetics, but human safety and target engagement data are lacking. METHODS: We orally administered 500 or 1000 mg OAA, twice daily for 1 month, to AD participants (n = 15 each group) and monitored safety and tolerability. To assess brain metabolism engagement, we performed fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG PET) and magnetic resonance spectroscopy before and after the intervention. We also assessed pharmacokinetics and cognitive performance. RESULTS: Both doses were safe and tolerated. Compared to the lower dose, the higher dose benefited FDG PET glucose uptake across multiple brain regions (P < .05), and the higher dose increased parietal and frontoparietal glutathione (P < .05). We did not demonstrate consistent blood level changes and cognitive scores did not improve. CONCLUSIONS: 1000 mg OAA, taken twice daily for 1 month, is safe in AD patients and engages brain energy metabolism.

Biological Efficacy and Safety of Niacinamide in Patients With ADPKD.

INTRODUCTION: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is characterized by progressive cyst enlargement, leading to kidney failure. Sirtuin-1 is upregulated in ADPKD and accelerates disease progression by deacetylating p53. Niacinamide is a dietary supplement that inhibits sirtuins at high doses. METHODS: We conducted an open-label, single-arm intervention trial (study 1, N = 10), and a randomized, double blinded, placebo-controlled trial (study 2, N = 36) to assess the biological activity and safety of niacinamide. Patients with ADPKD were given 30 mg/kg oral niacinamide or placebo, for 12 months. The primary endpoint was the ratio of acetylated p53 to total p53 protein in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). RESULTS: There was no sustained effect of niacinamide on acetylated/total p53 in either study and no difference between placebo and niacinamide arms. There was no difference in the change in height-adjusted total kidney volume over 12 months between niacinamide and placebo. Niacinamide was generally well tolerated. The most common adverse effects were nausea, diarrhea, gastroesophageal reflux, headache, and acneiform rash but there was no difference in their incidence between niacinamide and placebo. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, niacinamide is safe and well-tolerated in patients with ADPKD. However, we were unable to detect a sustained inhibition of sirtuin activity over 12 months of treatment, and there was no signal to suggest a beneficial effect on any efficacy measure.

Trends for and Clinical Factors Associated with Choice of Oral P2Y12 Inhibitors for Patients on Chronic Dialysis.

BACKGROUND: Trends and clinical factors associated with prescribing choices for oral P2Y12 inhibitors (P2Y12-I) remain unknown for patients on chronic dialysis, i.e., with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). METHODS: From 2011-2014 U.S. Renal Data System registry, we identified 36,542 ESRD patients who received new prescriptions for P2Y12-I (median age 64.0 years and 54% males). Of the cohort, 93% were receiving hemodialysis and 7% on peritoneal dialysis. We analyzed trends and investigated clinical factors associated with specific P2Y12-I prescribed. RESULTS: Clopidogrel was prescribed for 95%, prasugrel for 3%, and ticagrelor for 2%. Clopidogrel was favored for those ≥75 years (18% of cohort). Compared to Caucasians, African Americans (36% of cohort) and Hispanics (19% of cohort) were less likely to receive prasugrel and ticagrelor (P<0.05). Patients receiving hemodialysis versus peritoneal dialysis were less likely to receive prasugrel over clopidogrel, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.67 (0.55-0.82). Each additional year of dialysis decreased the odds of receiving prasugrel over clopidogrel, aOR 0.91 (0.85-0.98). History of atrial fibrillation reduced the odds of receiving ticagrelor or prasugrel over clopidogrel, aOR 0.69 (0.54-0.89) and 0.73 (0.60-0.89), respectively. Concomitant oral anticoagulant use was not associated with choice of P2Y12-I. Occurrence of non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction or percutaneous coronary intervention within the 6-month period prior to the index date favored ticagrelor over prasugrel, aOR 1.31 (1.06-1.62) and 1.29 (1.01-1.66), respectively. However, prescribing trends favoring ticagrelor over prasugrel were not observed for deployment of drug-eluting, or multiple coronary stents. CONCLUSION: Between 2011 and 2014, clopidogrel remained the most common P2Y12-I whereas ticagrelor and prasugrel remained underutilized in ESRD patients. Prescribing practices for these drugs were based upon clinically approved indication for their use in the general population as well as perceived complexity of an ESRD patient including demographics, dialysis-related factors and comorbidities. Comparative effectiveness studies involving ESRD patients are needed to prove that ticagrelor and prasugrel are just as safe and effective as clopidogrel before clinicians can make informed decisions for choice of P2Y12-I in this patient population.

Subclinical Cognitive Impairment and Listing for Kidney Transplantation.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cognitive impairment is common in patients with kidney disease and can affect physicians' perception and/or patients' ability to complete the pretransplant evaluation. We examined whether cognitive impairment influences the likelihood for transplant listing and whether patients with cognitive impairment take longer to be listed. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We conducted a single-center longitudinal cohort study. Patients presenting for their index kidney transplant evaluation were screened for cognitive impairment using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment. A score <26 indicated cognitive impairment. The transplant selection committee was blinded to the scores. Kaplan-Meier analysis assessed time to active listing by level of cognition. A Cox proportional hazards model that included age, sex, race/ethnicity, smoking, coronary artery disease, and diabetes was constructed to evaluate the association between Montreal Cognitive Assessment score and listing for transplant. RESULTS: In total, 349 patients who underwent Montreal Cognitive Assessment testing at their initial visit were included in the analysis. Patients with cognitive impairment were more likely to be older, black, and smokers. The time to listing in patients with cognitive impairment was longer than the time to listing in those with no cognitive impairment (median time, 10.6 versus 6.3 months; log rank test P=0.01). Cognitive impairment was independently associated with a lower likelihood of being listed for transplant (hazard ratio, 0.93 per unit lower Montreal Cognitive Assessment score; 95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 0.99; P=0.02). A lower proportion of patients with cognitive impairment were listed compared with patients without cognitive impairment at 1 month (2% versus 11%), 6 months (17% versus 37%), and 1 year (23% versus 41%), (P<0.001 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive impairment is associated with a lower likelihood of being listed for kidney transplant, and is associated with longer time to transplant listing.

Application of risk factors for venous thromboembolism in patients with multiple myeloma starting chemotherapy, a real-world evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: Within the first year of diagnosis, up to 1 in 3 multiple myeloma (MM) patients will experience a venous thromboembolism (VTE). The International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG) has thromboprophylaxis guidelines that stratify patients into low or high risk for thrombosis and subsequently recommend thromboprophylaxis, but it is unknown if these recommendations are being followed or if they are effective. The purpose of this study was to assess efficacy of the IMWG guidelines and investigate other potential VTE risk factors. METHODS: Study participants were treated at the University of Kansas Medical Center between 2007 and 2013, and charts were reviewed to extract data. Cases (MM and VTE) were matched to controls (MM and no VTE) at approximately 1:3 ratio based on gender, age (±5 years), and time of MM diagnosis (±5 years). RESULTS: A total of 80 cases and 211 controls were matched. Most patients (82%) were considered high risk for experiencing a VTE at the time of their MM diagnosis and 18% were considered low risk. Neither risk category (P = 0.16) nor thromboprophylaxis at baseline (P = 0.37) predicted VTE, though cases were more likely than controls to have an increased risk of thrombosis at the time of clot compared to their baseline risk (P = 0.09). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that IMWG guidelines are not being consistently followed and therefore could not be validated. Additional risk factors were not identified, but risk for VTE may change over time suggesting patients may require ongoing assessment of VTE risk and thromboprophylaxis throughout the disease course.

Relationship between caffeine intake and autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease progression: a retrospective analysis using the CRISP cohort.

BACKGROUND: Caffeine has been proposed, based on in vitro cultured cell studies, to accelerate progression of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) by increasing kidney size. Since ADPKD patients are advised to minimize caffeine intake, we investigated the effect of caffeine on disease progression in the Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Polycystic Kidney Disease (CRISP), a prospective, observational cohort study. METHODS: Our study included 239 patients (mean age = 32.3 ± 8.9 ys; 188 caffeine consumers) with a median follow-up time of 12.5 years. Caffeine intake reported at baseline was dichotomized (any vs. none). Linear mixed models, unadjusted and adjusted for age, race, sex, BMI, smoking, hypertension, genetics and time, were used to model height-adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV) and iothalamate clearance (mGFR). Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier plots examined the effect of caffeine on time to ESRD or death. RESULTS: Caffeine-by-time was statistically significant when modeling ln(htTKV) in unadjusted and adjusted models (p <  0.01) indicating that caffeine consumers had slightly faster kidney growth (by 0.6% per year), but htTKV remained smaller from baseline throughout the study. Caffeine consumption was not associated with a difference in mGFR, or in the time to ESRD or death (p > 0.05). Moreover the results were similar when outcomes were modeled as a function of caffeine dose. CONCLUSION: We conclude that caffeine does not have a significant detrimental effect on disease progression in ADPKD.

Bayesian design for two-arm randomized Phase II clinical trials with endpoints from the exponential family using multiple constraints.

Frequentist design for two-arm randomized Phase II clinical trials with outcomes from the exponential dispersion family was proposed previously, where the total sample sizes are minimized under multiple constraints on the standard errors of the estimated group means and their difference. This design was generalized from an approach specific for dichotomous outcomes. The two previous approaches measure the central tendency of each group and treatment effect based on mean and difference in means. Other measures such as median or hazard ratio are more appropriate under certain situations. In addition, the frequentist approaches assume that unknown parameters are fixed values. This does not reflect the reality that uncertainty always exists for unknowns. Compared to the frequentist methods, the Bayesian approach offers a flexible way to measure central tendency and treatment effect, and incorporate uncertainty in parameters of interest into considerations. In this article, we generalize a Bayesian design for Phase II clinical trials with endpoints in the exponential family from the two previously developed frequentist approaches. The proposed design minimizes the total sample sizes under pre-specified constraints on the expected length of posterior credible intervals for measures of treatment effect and central tendency in each group. The design is applicable for trials with fixed or optimal randomization allocation ratio and can be applied under adaptive procedure. Examples of method implementations are provided for different types of endpoints from the exponential family in both fixed and adaptive settings.

A Mitochondrial Biomarker-Based Study of S-Equol in Alzheimer's Disease Subjects: Results of a Single-Arm, Pilot Trial.

Reductions in bioenergetic fluxes, mitochondrial enzyme activities, and mitochondrial number are observed in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Preclinical work indicates estrogen pathway signaling by either estrogen or selective ß estrogen receptor (ERß) agonists benefits these parameters. To assess whether an ERß agonist could improve mitochondrial function in actual AD subjects, we administered S-equol (10 mg twice daily) to 15 women with AD and determined the platelet mitochondria cytochrome oxidase (COX) activity before initiating S-equol (lead-in), after two weeks of S-equol (active treatment), and two weeks after stopping S-equol (wash-out). Because the intra-individual variation of this enzyme across samples taken at different times was unknown we used a nonparametric, single-arm, dichotomous endpoint that classified subjects whose active treatment COX activity exceeded the average of their lead-in and wash-out measures as positive responders. Eleven positive responses were observed (p < 0.06). The implications of this finding on our null hypothesis (that S-equol does not influence platelet mitochondria COX activity) are discussed. To our knowledge, this is the first time a direct mitochondrial target engagement biomarker has been utilized in an AD clinical study.

Erythropoietin modulation is associated with improved homing and engraftment after umbilical cord blood transplantation.

Umbilical cord blood (UCB) engraftment is in part limited by graft cell dose, generally one log less than that of bone marrow (BM)/peripheral blood (PB) cell grafts. Strategies toward increasing hematopoietic stem/progenitor cell (HSPC) homing to BM have been assessed to improve UCB engraftment. Despite recent progress, a complete understanding of how HSPC homing and engraftment are regulated is still elusive. We provide evidence that blocking erythropoietin (EPO)-EPO receptor (R) signaling promotes homing to BM and early engraftment of UCB CD34+ cells. A significant population of UCB CD34+ HSPC expresses cell surface EPOR. Exposure of UCB CD34+ HSPC to EPO inhibits their migration and enhances erythroid differentiation. This migratory inhibitory effect was reversed by depleting EPOR expression on HSPC. Moreover, systemic reduction in EPO levels by hyperbaric oxygen (HBO) used in a preclinical mouse model and in a pilot clinical trial promoted homing of transplanted UCB CD34+ HSPC to BM. Such a systemic reduction of EPO in the host enhanced myeloid differentiation and improved BM homing of UCB CD34+ cells, an effect that was overcome with exogenous EPO administration. Of clinical relevance, HBO therapy before human UCB transplantation was well-tolerated and resulted in transient reduction in EPO with encouraging engraftment rates and kinetics. Our studies indicate that systemic reduction of EPO levels in the host or blocking EPO-EPOR signaling may be an effective strategy to improve BM homing and engraftment after allogeneic UCB transplantation. This clinical trial was registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov (#NCT02099266).

Germline BRCA mutation evaluation in a prospective triple-negative breast cancer registry: implications for hereditary breast and/or ovarian cancer syndrome testing.

NCCN guidelines recommend genetic testing for all triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients aged ≤60 years. However, due to the lack of prospective information in unselected patients, these guidelines are not uniformly adopted by clinicians and insurance carriers. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of BRCA mutations and evaluate the utility of NCCN guidelines in unselected TNBC population. Stage I-IV TNBC patients were enrolled on a prospective registry at academic and community practices. All patients underwent BRCA1/2 testing. Significant family history (SFH) was defined >1 relative with breast cancer at age ≤50 or ≥1 relative with ovarian cancer. Mutation prevalence in the entire cohort and subgroups was calculated. 207 TNBC patients were enrolled between 2011 and 2013. Racial/ethnic distribution: Caucasian (80 %), African-American (14 %), Ashkenazi (1 %). Deleterious BRCA1/2 mutations were identified in 15.4 % (32/207) of patients (BRCA1:11.1 %, BRCA2:4.3 %). SFH reported by 36 % of patients. Mutation prevalence in patients with and without SFH was 31.6 and 6.1 %, respectively. When assessed by age at TNBC diagnosis, the mutation prevalences were 27.6 % (≤50 years), 11.4 % (51-60 years), and 4.9 % (≥61 years). Using SFH or age ≤50 as criteria, 25 and 34 % of mutations, respectively, were missed. Mutation prevalence in patients meeting NCCN guidelines was 18.3 % (32/175) and 0 % (0/32) in patients who did not meet guidelines (p = .0059). In this unselected academic and community population with negligible Ashkenazi representation, we observed an overall BRCA mutation prevalence rate of 15.4 %. BRCA testing based on NCCN guidelines identified all carriers supporting its routine application in clinical practice for TNBC.

Derivation and validation of a formula to estimate risk for 30-day readmission in medical patients.

OBJECTIVE: To create a simple readmission risk-prediction tool that can be generated easily at the bedside by physicians, nurses, care coordinators and discharge planners. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Tertiary academic medical center. PARTICIPANTS: Inpatients aged 18 and older on general internal medicine services. MEASURES: Predictor variables included age, prior hospitalization, high-risk diagnoses, high-risk medications, polypharmacy, depression, use of palliative care and a cumulative score summing these factors (readmission risk score-RRS). The main outcome measure was 30-day readmission. Predictive values were calculated. RESULTS: Readmission increased linearly from 4.9% of those whose RRS score was 0-37.5% of those with highest risk scores (P = 0.0002). We derived a simple formula for readmission risk as 8 and 4% more for each additional readmission risk factor. The positive predictive value for RRS >0 was low, while the negative predictive value for this cutoff was 95%. CONCLUSIONS: An easily calculated 7-point score can be used to estimate readmission risk. This tool may be particularly useful for identifying lower risk patients who may not require intensive intervention, thus aiding in appropriate targeting of resources.

Hyperbaric oxygen improves engraftment of ex-vivo expanded and gene transduced human CD34⁺ cells in a murine model of umbilical cord blood transplantation.

Delayed engraftment and graft failure represent major obstacles to successful umbilical cord blood (UCB) transplantation. Herein, we evaluated the use of hyperbaric oxygen (HBO) therapy as an intervention to improve human UCB stem/progenitor cell engraftment in an immune deficient mouse model. Six- to eight-week old NSG mice were sublethally irradiated 24 hours prior to CD34⁺ UCB cell transplant. Irradiated mice were separated into a non-HBO group (where mice remained under normoxic conditions) and the HBO group (where mice received 2 hours of HBO therapy; 100% oxygen at 2.5 atmospheres absolute). Four hours after completing HBO therapy, both groups intravenously received CD34⁺ UCB cells that were transduced with a lentivirus carrying luciferase gene and expanded for in vivo imaging. Mice were imaged and then sacrificed at one of 10 times up to 4.5 months post-transplant. HBO treated mice demonstrated significantly improved bone marrow, peripheral blood, and spleen retention and subsequent engraftment. In addition, HBO significantly improved peripheral, spleen and bone marrow engraftment of human myeloid and B-cell subsets. In vivo imaging demonstrated that HBO mice had significantly higher ventral and dorsal bioluminescence values. These studies suggest that HBO treatment of NSG mice prior to UCB CD34⁺ cell infusion significantly improves engraftment.

Impact of admission blood glucose level on outcomes in community-acquired pneumonia in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults. Although diabetes mellitus is a risk factor for pneumonia, the clinical impact of blood glucose level at the time of admission is not clear. Our goal was to examine the association between admission hyperglycemia and subsequent mortality, length of stay, and readmission outcomes in older adults with CAP. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was conducted using hospital data for community-acquired pneumonia admissions in 857 persons from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010. We examined the effects of admission glucose level on mortality, length of stay, and 30 day readmission, adjusted for demographic factors and comorbidity. RESULTS: The mean age of the sample was 64 years, and 51% of the subjects were female. Inpatient mortality occurred in 4.6% and the median length of stay was 5 days (interquartile range 3-9 days). Readmission within 30 days occurred in 17%. We found little impact of first glucose measures on in-hospital mortality (P = 0.94), length of stay (P = 0.95), and 30-day readmission (P = 0.56). Subjects 65 years and older trended towards higher in-hospital mortality. Older age, cancer, heart failure, and cirrhosis were associated with adverse outcomes. CONCLUSION: Glucose level upon admission for community-acquired pneumonia was not associated with adverse outcomes within 30 days in older adults.

Identifying incident oral and pharyngeal cancer cases using Medicare claims.

BACKGROUND: Baseline and trend data for oral and pharyngeal cancer incidence is limited. A new algorithm was derived using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database to create an algorithm to identify incident cases of oral and pharyngeal cancer using Medicare claims. METHODS: Using a split-sample approach, Medicare claims' procedure and diagnosis codes were used to generate a new algorithm to identify oral and pharyngeal cancer cases and validate its operating characteristics. RESULTS: The algorithm had high sensitivity (95%) and specificity (97%), which varied little by age group, sex, and race and ethnicity. CONCLUSION: Examples of the utility of this algorithm and its operating characteristics include using it to derive baseline and trend estimates of oral and pharyngeal cancer incidence. Such measures could be used to provide incidence estimates where they are lacking or to serve as comparator estimates for tumor registries.

Simultaneous evaluation of abstinence and relapse using a Markov chain model in smokers enrolled in a two-year randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: GEE and mixed models are powerful tools to compare treatment effects in longitudinal smoking cessation trials. However, they are not capable of assessing the relapse (from abstinent back to smoking) simultaneously with cessation, which can be studied by transition models. METHODS: We apply a first-order Markov chain model to analyze the transition of smoking status measured every 6 months in a 2-year randomized smoking cessation trial, and to identify what factors are associated with the transition from smoking to abstinent and from abstinent to smoking. Missing values due to non-response are assumed non-ignorable and handled by the selection modeling approach. RESULTS: Smokers receiving high-intensity disease management (HDM), of male gender, lower daily cigarette consumption, higher motivation and confidence to quit, and having serious attempts to quit were more likely to become abstinent (OR = 1.48, 1.66, 1.03, 1.15, 1.09 and 1.34, respectively) in the next 6 months. Among those who were abstinent, lower income and stronger nicotine dependence (OR = 1.72 for ≤ vs. > 40 K and OR = 1.75 for first cigarette ≤ vs. > 5 min) were more likely to have relapse in the next 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Markov chain models allow investigation of dynamic smoking-abstinence behavior and suggest that relapse is influenced by different factors than cessation. The knowledge of treatments and covariates in transitions in both directions may provide guidance for designing more effective interventions on smoking cessation and relapse prevention.

Effects of premature birth on the risk for alcoholism appear to be greater in males than females.

OBJECTIVE: A large Danish birth cohort was used to test the independent and joint effects of perinatal measures associated with premature birth as predictors of the development of alcoholism in male and female subjects. METHOD: Subjects were born at the Copenhagen University Hospital between 1959 and 1961 (N = 9,125). A comprehensive series of measures was obtained for each of the 8,109 surviving and eligible infants before birth, during birth, shortly after birth, and at 1 year. The adult alcoholism outcome was defined as any ICD-10 F10 diagnosis (Mental and behavioral disorders due to alcohol use) or an equivalent ICD-8 diagnosis found in the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register or the Municipal Alcohol Clinics of Copenhagen by 2007. RESULTS: Multiple perinatal markers of premature birth independently predicted the development of an alcoholism diagnosis in male (n = 310) but not female (n = 138) subjects. Logistic regression modeling with a global prematurity score, adjusted for social status, maternal smoking, and gender, indicated a significant association of prematurity score for males (p < .02), but not females (p = .51), on the risk of developing an alcohol use disorder. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that neurodevelopmental sequelae of premature birth are associated with gender-specific effects on the development of alcoholism in the male baby: small, premature, or growth-delayed male babies appear to be selectively vulnerable to alcoholic drinking years later. The findings implicate neurodevelopmental influences in alcoholism pathophysiology in males and suggest the possibility of distinct, gender-specific pathways in the etiology of severe problem drinking.

Validation of the support provided measure among spouses of smokers receiving a clinical smoking cessation intervention.

Studies indicate a positive association between social support and smoking cessation. However, clinic-based interventions designed to increase social support have had limited success. Most studies have relied on only the smoker's perceptions of support received while few have assessed the support provider's report of support delivered. Understanding supportive interactions between support providers and recipients may assist in developing effective support interventions for cessation. The current investigation examined the perceptions of smoking-specific support provided by the spouse of a partner who smokes and was seen for a nicotine dependence consultation. Specifically, we examined spouse reported willingness to help their spouse quit, interest in learning ways to help their spouse quit, and characteristics associated with the provision of smoking-specific supportive behaviors (as assessed via the Support Provided Measure, SPM), in the 2-weeks prior to the consultation. The current investigation also examined the concurrent validity of the SPM with a validated measure of support provided to a smoker, the Partner Interaction Questionnaire (PIQ), accounting for social desirability bias and smoker readiness to change. The sample comprised 84 adult cigarette smokers seen for a clinical smoking cessation intervention and their spouses (N = 84). Results indicate that a high percentage of spouses are willing to help their partner who smokes and interested in learning way to help. As expected, spouses who were females and had never smoked had higher scores on the SPM than males or current smokers. The SPM was significantly correlated with the PIQ positive (r = 0.50, p < 0.01) and negative (r = 0.44, p <0.01) item scales overall and for spouses whose partners reported higher levels of readiness to quit smoking (r = 0.54, p < 0.01; r = 0.50, p < 0.01, respectively). Suggestions for future research are offered.