Health maintenance organizations and hospital quality for coronary artery bypass surgery.

This study uses hospital discharge data for 1992-1994 to assess differences between HMO and insured non-HMO patients in California and Florida with regard to the quality of the hospitals used for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. The authors found that commercially insured HMO patients in California used higher quality hospitals than commercially insured non-HMO patients, controlling for patient distance to the hospital. In contrast, commercially insured HMO and non-HMO patients in Florida were similarly distributed across hospitals of different quality levels, whereas Medicare HMO patients in Florida used lower quality hospitals than patients in the standard Medicare program. The authors conclude that the association between HMO coverage and hospital quality may differ across geographic areas and patient populations, possibly related to the maturity and structure of managed care markets.

Association of dialyzer reuse with hospitalization and survival rates among U.S. hemodialysis patients: do comorbidities matter?

The objective of this study was to determine whether the associations between reuse of hemodialyzers and higher rates of death and hospitalization persist after adjustment for comorbidity. This was a nonconcurrent cohort study of survival and hospitalization rates among 1491 U.S. chronic hemodialysis patients beginning treatment in 1986 and 1987. The impact of dialyzer reuse was compared across three survival models: an unadjusted model, a "base" model adjusted only for demographics and renal diagnosis, and an "augmented" model additionally adjusted for comorbidities. We found that reuse of dialyzers was associated with a similarly higher rate of death in analyses unadjusted for confounders (relative risk [RR] 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97-1.61), adjusted for demographics and renal diagnosis (RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.96-1.41), and analyses additionally adjusted for comorbidities (RR = 1.25, CI, 1.03, 1.52). Reusing dialyzers was also associated with a greater rate of hospitalization that was stable regardless of adjustment procedures. We conclude that higher rates of death and hospitalization associated with dialyzer reuse persist regardless of adjustment for demographic characteristics or baseline comorbidities. These findings amplify concerns that there exists elevated morbidity among hemodialysis patients treated in facilities that reuse hemodialyzers. Although the association we observed was not confounded by comorbidity, a cause-and-effect relationship between dialyzer reuse and morbidity could not be proved because of the inability to control for aspects of care other than dialyzer reuse.

First-cycle blood counts and subsequent neutropenia, dose reduction, or delay in early-stage breast cancer therapy.

PURPOSE: If patients could be ranked according to their projected need for supportive care therapy, then more efficient and less costly treatment algorithms might be developed. This work reports on the construction of a model of neutropenia, dose reduction, or delay that rank-orders patients according to their need for costly supportive care such as granulocyte growth factors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A case series and consecutive sample of patients treated for breast cancer were studied. Patients had received standard-dose adjuvant chemotherapy for early-stage nonmetastatic breast cancer and were treated by four medical oncologists. Using 95 patients and validated with 80 additional patients, development models were constructed to predict one or more of the following events: neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count [ANC] < or = 250/microL), dose reduction > or = 15% of that scheduled, or treatment delay > or = 7 days. Two approaches to modeling were attempted. The pretreatment approach used only pretreatment predictors such as chemotherapy regimen and radiation history; the conditional approach included, in addition, blood count information obtained in the first cycle of treatment. RESULTS: The pretreatment model was unsuccessful at predicting neutropenia, dose reduction, or delay (c-statistic = 0.63). Conditional models were good predictors of subsequent events after cycle 1 (c-statistic = 0.87 and 0.78 for development and validation samples, respectively). The depth of the first-cycle ANC was an excellent predictor of events in subsequent cycles (P = .0001 to .004). Chemotherapy plus radiation also increased the risk of subsequent events (P = .0011 to .0901). Decline in hemoglobin (HGB) level during the first cycle of therapy was a significant predictor of events in the development study (P = .0074 and .0015), and although the trend was similar in the validation study, HGB decline failed to reach statistical significance. CONCLUSION: It is possible to rank patients according to their need of supportive care based on blood counts observed in the first cycle of therapy. Such rankings may aid in the choice of appropriate supportive care for patients with early-stage breast cancer.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor use in early-stage breast cancer.

PURPOSE: To model the cost-effectiveness (CE) of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) in early-stage breast cancer when its use is directed to those most in need of the medication. METHODS: A conditional CE model was developed for the use of G-CSF based on a ranking of patient need as determined by patient blood counts during the first cycle of chemotherapy. In the base case, no G-CSF was used. In the alternative case, G-CSF was used in the following manner. If the risk of a neutropenic event (as defined by a predictive model based on nadir absolute neutrophil count [ANC] and hemoglobin decrease in cycle 1) was equal to or exceeded a predetermined critical value "T," then patients would receive G-CSF in cycles 2 through 6 of chemotherapy. If the risk of an event was less than T, patients would not use G-CSF unless an event occurred, at which time G-CSF would be administered with every subsequent cycle. RESULTS: A decision rule (T) that would allow the most needy 50% of early-stage breast cancer patients to receive G-CSF after the first cycle of chemotherapy resulted in a CE ratio of $34,297 dollars per life-year saved (LYS). If only the most needy 10% of patients received G-CSF, then the associated CE ratio was $23,748/LYS; if 90% of patients could receive the medication, the CE ratio would be $76,487/LYS. These estimates were relatively insensitive to inpatient hospital cost estimates (inpatient costs for fever and neutropenia of $3,090 to $7,726 per admission produced dollar per LYS figures of $34,297 to $32,415, respectively). However, the model was sensitive to assumptions about the shape of the relationship between dose reduction and disease-free survival (DFS) at 3 years. CONCLUSION: Providing G-CSF to the neediest 50% of early-stage breast cancer patients (as defined by first-cycle blood counts) starting after the first cycle of chemotherapy is associated with a CE ratio of $34,297/LYS, which is well in the range of CE ratios for treatment of other common medical conditions. Furthermore, conditional CE studies, based on predictive models that incorporate individual patient risk, allow one to define populations for which therapy is, or is not, cost-effective. Limitations of our present understanding of the shape of the chemotherapy dose-response curve, especially at low levels of dose reductions, affect these results. Further work is required to define the shape of the dose-response curve in early-stage breast cancer.

Carrier screening for cystic fibrosis: costs and clinical outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the costs and clinical effects of 16 alternative strategies for cystic fibrosis (CF) carrier screening in the reproductive setting; and to test the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about cost and detection rate, stakeholder perspective, DNA test specificity, chance of nonpaternity, and couples' reproductive plans. METHOD: Cost-effectiveness analysis. RESULTS: A sequential screening strategy had the lowest cost per CF birth avoided. In this strategy, the first partner was screened with a standard test that identifies 85% of carriers. The second partner was screened with an expanded test if the first partner's screen was positive. This strategy identified 75% of anticipated CF births at a cost of $367,000 each. This figure does not include the lifetime medical costs of caring for a patient with CF, and it assumes that couples who identify a pregnancy at risk will choose to have prenatal diagnosis and termination of affected pregnancies. The cost per CF birth identified is approximately half this figure when couples plan two children. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of CF carrier screening depends greatly on couples' reproductive plans. CF carrier screening is most cost-effective when it is performed sequentially, when the information is used for more than one pregnancy, and when the intention of the couple is to identify and terminate affected pregnancies. These conclusions are important for policy considerations regarding population-based screening for CF, and may also have important implications for screening for less common diseases.

Assessing the value of a new pharmaceutical. A feasibility study of contingent valuation in managed care.

OBJECTIVES: The authors assessed the feasibility and construct validity of the contingent valuation method for measuring the monetary value to healthy enrollees in a health maintenance organization of a new drug, filgrastim, as prophylaxis against febrile neutropenia after chemotherapy treatment for cancer. METHODS: A random sample of 220 enrollees from a closed-panel staff-model health maintenance organization who did not have cancer were interviewed. Chemotherapy, febrile neutropenia and filgrastim were described by video and decision board. Questions were asked in two different scenarios: (1) User-based: Assuming they were at the point of consumption and about to receive chemotherapy, what is the maximum they would be willing to pay to receive filgrastim? and (2) Insurance-based: Given they were at risk of cancer in the future, what is the maximum they would be willing to pay in additional monthly insurance premiums to add filgrastim to the plan? In a second insurance scenario where respondents were told that filgrastim was covered, what is the minimum reduction in premium that persons were willing to accept to relinquish coverage of the drug? A 2 x 2 factorial design was used to contrast two bidding algorithms to test for starting point bias and two 5-yearly prior risks of cancer, 1/200 versus 1/100. Main effects were tested by ANCOVA controlling for age, sex, health, and income. RESULTS: Demographics of experimental cells were similar. No evidence was found of significant starting point bias. For user-based questions, as expected, willingness-to-pay increases with febrile neutropenia risk reduction, but at a declining marginal rate. Despite careful presentation of information to respondents, willingness-to-pay for insurance was higher in the lower prior risk group. Consistent with previous contingent valuation studies, the authors of the present study found evidence that willingness-to-accept exceeds willingness-to-pay for coverage of the same benefit. CONCLUSIONS: An insurance-based contingent valuation study is feasible in a health maintenance organization. Construct validation evidence was encouraging, with the exception of the test for prior risk of cancer; however, this was a between-person contrast and may have been confounded by other factors.

The effects of health insurance on access to new medical technologies.

We examined the use of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, kidney stone lithotripsy, and bone marrow transplant among patients with different health insurance plans in California. HMO enrollees were less likely to receive these procedures compared with fee-for-service patients. Our results have implications for the inflationary effects of technology under managed care.

Genetic screening for reproductive planning: methodological and conceptual issues in policy analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This paper explores several critical assumptions and methodological issues arising in cost-effectiveness analyses of genetic screening strategies in the reproductive setting. METHODS: Seven issues that arose in the development of a decision analysis of alternative strategies for cystic fibrosis carrier screening are discussed. Each of these issues required a choice in technique. RESULTS: The presentations of these analyses frequently mask underlying assumptions and methodological choices. Often there is no best choice. In the case of genetic screening in the reproductive setting, these underlying issues often touch on deeply felt human values. CONCLUSIONS: Space limitations for published papers often preclude explaining such choices in detail; yet these decisions determine the way the results should be interpreted. Those who develop these analyses need to make sure that the implications of important assumptions are understood by the clinicians who will use them. At the same time, clinicians need to enhance their understanding of what these models truly mean and how they address underlying clinical, ethical, and economic issues.

Insurance incentives for ambulatory surgery.

This study is an attempt to address both the extent to which surgical procedures on an outpatient basis substitute cost-effectively for inpatient procedures, and whether or not an insurance policy's financial incentives increase the volume of outpatient surgical procedures. In particular, given an insurance product of a given composition: What is the probability that the insured will have surgery? and if a surgery does take place, what is the probability that it will occur in an outpatient setting? Finally, the article assesses the implication of such products on the total cost of care by quantifying the insurance plans along two parameters, the relative user price for outpatient versus inpatient surgery and the absolute price for the inpatient surgery. The results indicate that insurance policies that offer relatively lower out-of-pocket payments for ambulatory surgery do not increase the probability that surgery will be done in the ambulatory setting. However, higher out-of-pocket payments for surgery, regardless of site, do reduce the surgery rate. There are other patient and market characteristics, especially the availability of freestanding surgery firms, that do influence the location of surgery.

Fairness and feasibility in national health care systems.

The issue of National Health Care reform has been discussed from many different perspectives. One of the most fundamental justifications for such reform is based on the notion of horizontal equity. The motivation for equity in medical services use contrasts with the seeming lack of concern for equity in financing. Proposed policy remedies often involve transfers through taxation, though the effects of government taxation often reduce the efficiency of publicly financed health insurance. Further, the effects of heterogeneous preferences complicate the assessment of optimal medical service consumption levels. Ethical justification aside, this paper addresses the notion of fairness in the provision of medical care from an economic perspective. It suggests policies which might be most suitable in achieving such a goal. A paradoxical result of these considerations of fairness is that unequal insurance coverage is requisite to ensure more equal utilization of medical services by the population. The concept of fairness is then developed into a bottom up system of equity in the medical market.

Competition and efficiency in the end stage renal disease program.

Estimated coefficients for medical service production or cost functions are subject to a 'competitive amenity bias' which may result in the failure to identify factors that affect economic efficiency. Our investigation of productivity of dialysis facilities did indeed indicate both the likelihood of bias and some qualitative results. These results suggest that it will be difficult to estimate cost and that variation in the level of reimbursement will, in competitive markets, affect the level of amenity delivered to patients. Incurred cost, amenity, and patient well-being will all vary positively with the reimbursement level. Determining the 'right' level of reimbursement requires a policy decision on how much total amenity society wishes to deliver to beneficiaries of public programs.

What is unnecessary surgery?

The definition of "unnecessary surgery" has never been made very precise. A useful definition might be provided by the economist's notion of patient costs and benefits as they would be calculated by a fully informed patient-consumer. Combining both clinical information and consumer preferences, it is impossible to demonstrate unnecessary surgery for most diagnoses. Conclusions in recent Congressional reports on unnecessary surgery are not supported by evidence likely to benefit either individual physicians or patients.

"The study on surgical services for the United States": a valid prescription for American surgery?

The overall approach of SOSSUS to the study of surgical services, the interpretation of findings, and policy recommendations are rightly called into question. But singular concern with the consequences of monopolistic control by the profession is no substitute for analysis of the dynamics among demand, production, and supply of surgery. Any delivery system--and many models are feasible--involving consumers, providers, and payers is a market in which multidimensional behavior must be anticipated.