Artificial intelligence methods to estimate overall mortality and non-relapse mortality following allogeneic HCT in the modern era: an EBMT-TCWP study.

Allogeneic haematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) has curative potential counterbalanced by its toxicity. Prognostic scores fail to include current era patients and alternative donors. We examined adult patients from the EBMT registry who underwent alloHCT between 2010 and 2019 for oncohaematological disease. Our primary objective was to develop a new prognostic score for overall mortality (OM), with a secondary objective of predicting non-relapse mortality (NRM) using the OM score. AI techniques were employed. The model for OM was trained, optimized, and validated using 70%, 15%, and 15% of the data set, respectively. The top models, "gradient boosting" for OM (AUC = 0.64) and "elasticnet" for NRM (AUC = 0.62), were selected. The analysis included 33,927 patients. In the final prognostic model, patients with the lowest score had a 2-year OM and NRM of 18 and 13%, respectively, while those with the highest score had a 2-year OM and NRM of 82 and 93%, respectively. The results were consistent in the subset of the haploidentical cohort (n = 4386). Our score effectively stratifies the risk of OM and NRM in the current era but do not significantly improve mortality prediction. Future prognostic scores can benefit from identifying biological or dynamic markers post alloHCT.

Postremission Consolidation by Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation (HCT) for Acute Myeloid Leukemia in First Complete Remission (CR) and Negative Implications for Subsequent Allogeneic HCT in Second CR: A Study by the Acute Leukemia Working Party of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT).

After autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) in the first complete remission (CR1), patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) may relapse and undergo allogeneic HCT in the second complete remission (CR2). The aim of this study was to analyze the outcome of allogeneic HCT performed in CR2 comparing patients with prior consolidation by autologous HCT versus patients with chemotherapy consolidation. Included were 2619 adults with allogeneic HCT in CR2 from 2000 to 2017 with (n = 417) or without (n = 2202) prior autologous HCT. Patient groups were not entirely comparable; patients with prior autologous HCT were younger, had less often a favorable cytogenetic profile, had more commonly donors other than matched siblings, and more often received reduced-intensity conditioning. In multivariate analysis, nonrelapse mortality risks in patients with prior autologous HCT were 1.34 (1.07 to 1.67; P = .01) after adjustment for age, cytogenetic risk, transplant year, donor, conditioning intensity, sex matching, interval diagnosis-relapse, and relapse-allogeneic HCT as compared with chemotherapy consolidation. Similarly, risks of events in leukemia-free survival and graft-versus-host disease, relapse-free survival were higher with prior autologous HCT, 1.17 (1.01 to 1.35), P = .03 and 1.18 (1.03 to 1.35), P = .02, respectively. Risk of death was also higher, 1.13 (0.97 to 1.32), P = .1, but this was not significant. Postremission consolidation with autologous HCT for AML in CR1 increases toxicity of subsequent allogeneic HCT in CR2.

Autologous transplant remains the preferred therapy for relapsed APL in CR2.

Despite their favorable prognosis, 10-20% of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) patients relapse. Reinduction therapy is often followed by autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (auto-HCT). Arsenic trioxide (ATO) has become part of standard reinduction and is often followed by auto-HCT. Data on patients in CR2 were collected from two large transplant registries (Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) and European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplant (EBMT)) and two specialty referral centers. The outcome of patients in CR2 who received only ATO-based therapy as reinduction was retrospectively compared with those who got an auto-HCT, with or without ATO. Prognostic factors included age, disease risk, extramedullary disease and duration of CR1. Of 207 evaluable patients, the median age was 31.5 years, 15.3% had extramedullary disease and median WBC at diagnosis was 4.8 × 10(9)/L. Sixty-seven patients received ATO alone and 140 underwent auto-HCT. The groups were comparable for age, gender, extramedullary disease, risk group and duration of CR1. At 5 years, overall survival (OS) was 42% and 78% for the ATO-only and auto-HCT groups, respectively (P<0.001). In addition, OS was associated with longer duration of CR1 (P=0.002), but not with disease risk at diagnosis. These data suggest that auto-HCT for APL patients in CR2 results in better OS than ATO-based therapy alone.

Impact of conditioning with TBI in adult patients with T-cell ALL who receive a myeloablative allogeneic stem cell transplantation: a report from the acute leukemia working party of EBMT.

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT) is a therapeutic option for adult patients with T-cell ALL (T-ALL). Meanwhile, few allo-SCT data specific to adult T-ALL have been described thus far. Specifically, the optimal myeloablative conditioning regimen is unknown. In this retrospective study, 601 patients were included. Patients received allo-SCT in CR1, CR2, CR >2 or in advanced disease in 69%, 15%, 2% and 14% of cases, respectively. With an overall follow-up of 58 months, 523 patients received a TBI-based regimen, whereas 78 patients received a chemotherapy-based regimen including IV busulfan-cyclophosphamide (IV Bu-Cy) (n=46). Unlike patients aged ⩾35 years, patients aged <35 years who received a TBI-based regimen displayed an improved outcome compared with patients who received a chemotherapy-based regimen (5-year leukemia-free survival (LFS) of 50% for TBI versus 18% for chemo-only regimen or IV Bu-Cy regimens, P=10(-5) and 10(-4), respectively). In multivariate analysis, use of TBI was associated with an improved LFS (hazard ratio (HR)=0.55 (0.34-0.86), P=0.01) and overall survival (HR=0.54 (0.34-0.87), P=0.01) in patients aged <35 years. In conclusion, younger adult patients with T-ALL entitled to receive a myeloablative allo-SCT may benefit from TBI-based regimens.

Long-term outcome and prognostic factors of second allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant for acute leukemia in patients with a median follow-up of ⩾10 years.

Second allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT2) is a frequently used treatment option for relapse of acute leukemia after first allogeneic transplantation. Remission can be induced in selected patients, but data on long-term outcome and finally cure are limited. To estimate the long-term results of HSCT2, we retrospectively analyzed the course of 286 patients receiving myeloablative HSCT2 between 1985 and 2000, with a median follow-up of 11.3 years. Overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) at 10 years from HSCT2 were 10±2 and 7±2%, respectively. Cumulative 10-year incidence of relapse and non-relapse mortality were 58±3% and 35±3%, respectively. CR at HSCT2, an interval from first transplant to relapse >10 months and TBI as part of the conditioning for HSCT2 favorably influenced LFS and OS. Patients with all three favorable factors had a 10-year OS of 36±10% and LFS of 25±9%, whereas patients showing no favorable factor had all died before year 5. Although retrospective, the long follow-up of this analysis supports the curative potential of alloHSCT2 in selected patients, who might be identified in advance, based on prognostic factors.

A prospective registration study to determine feasibility of hematopoietic SCT in adults with acute leukemia: planning, expectations and reality.

For adults with acute leukemia, it is important to know whether the therapeutic schemes initially planned were actually implemented. The European Group for Blood and Marrow transplantation Acute Leukemia Working Party prospectively followed 695 consecutive patients who were registered at the time of HLA typing. Of 304 patients with an available matched sibling donor (MSD), SCT was planned in 264, chemotherapy in 33 and autografting in 7. For the rest, an unrelated donor (UD) search was initiated in 198. Among these, 117 were transplanted, 114 received chemotherapy and 77 underwent autografting. Probabilities of receiving a planned treatment were 60 and 65% at 1 and 2 years, respectively. Patients scheduled to receive MSD SCT had an 82% probability, whereas those scheduled to undergo UD SCT had a 57% probability, of receiving their transplant at 1 year. The only factor associated with a lower probability of MSD SCT in first remission was delayed HLA typing (HR=0.82; P=0.03). One year after enrollment, 40% of patients did not follow their initial treatment plan. Because OS was 50% only at 3 years and only 57% of the patients without a MSD underwent SCT, this suggests room for improvement in outcomes for adults with acute leukemia.

Factors predicting outcome after unrelated donor stem cell transplantation in primary refractory acute myeloid leukaemia.

Treatment options for adults with primary refractory acute myeloid leukaemia (PREF AML) are extremely limited. Although sibling allogeneic stem cell transplantation can result in long-term survival, most patients lack a matched family donor and are destined to die of refractory disease. Greater availability of unrelated donors and improvements in supportive care have increased the proportion of patients with PREF AML in whom allografting is technically feasible, but the outcome of unrelated donor transplantation in this population has not been studied. We therefore analysed overall survival in 168 patients with PREF AML, who underwent unrelated donor transplantation between 1994 and 2006. The 5-year overall survival for the whole group was 22%. In multivariate analysis, fewer than three courses of induction chemotherapy, a lower percentage of bone marrow blasts at transplant and patient cytomegalovirus seropositivity were associated with improved survival. This allowed the development of a scoring system that identified four groups with survival rates between 44±11% and 0%. This study demonstrates an important role for unrelated donor transplantation in the management of selected patients with PREF AML and confirms the importance of initiating an urgent unrelated donor search in patients with no matched sibling donor, who fail to respond to induction chemotherapy.

Comparative outcome of reduced intensity and myeloablative conditioning regimen in HLA identical sibling allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation for patients older than 50 years of age with acute myeloblastic leukaemia: a retrospective survey from the Acute Leukemia Working Party (ALWP) of the European group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT).

Results of reduced intensity conditioning regimen (RIC) in the HLA identical haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) setting have not been compared to those after myeloablative (MA) regimen HSCT in patients with acute myeloblastic leukaemia (AML) over 50 years of age. With this aim, outcomes of 315 RIC were compared with 407 MA HSCT recipients. The majority of RIC was fludarabine-based regimen associated to busulphan (BU) (53%) or low-dose total body irradiation (24%). Multivariate analyses of outcomes were used adjusting for differences between both groups. The median follow-up was 13 months. Cytogenetics, FAB classification, WBC count at diagnosis and status of the disease at transplant were not statistically different between the two groups. However, RIC patients were older, transplanted more recently, and more frequently with peripheral blood allogeneic stem cells as compared to MA recipients. In multivariate analysis, acute GVHD (II-IV) and transplant-related mortality were significantly decreased (P=0.01 and P<10(-4), respectively) and relapse incidence was significantly higher (P=0.003) after RIC transplantation. Leukaemia-free survival was not statistically different between the two groups. These results may set the grounds for prospective trials comparing RIC with other strategies of treatment in elderly AML.

Risk assessment in adult acute lymphoblastic leukaemia before early haemopoietic stem cell transplantation with a geno-identical donor: an easy clinical prognostic score to identify patients who benefit most from allogeneic haemopoietic stem cell transplantation.

In 1402 patients allografted in Europe during the period 1990-2000 with an HLA-identical sibling in first remission (CR1), the median interval from CR1 to allotransplant (96 days) was a major prognostic factor, patients transplanted earlier having a worse outcome. We studied in depth the 414 fully evaluable patients transplanted less than 96 days after achieving CR1; in these patients, only three factors predicted for the outcome by multivariate analysis: patient age, CR1 achievement with one or more induction courses and the recipient/donor sex combination. These three factors overcame the information from cytogenetics and source of stem cells. Three prognostic groups could be identified in relation to the outcome, using a prognostic score affecting 1 to each poor risk factor (total from 0 to 3): Group 1 (good prognosis) includes patients <35 years old, achieving CR1 with one induction course and to be transplanted with any other sex combination than female to male (score 0); group 2 (intermediate) with one adverse factor (score 1); and group 3 (bad prognosis) with two or three adverse criteria (scores 2 and 3). In these three groups, the 3-year leukaemia-free survival was 56+/-5%, 48+/-4% and 29+/-4% and the overall survival was 65+/-5, 53+/-4 and 29+/-5%, respectively. Therefore, adult patients with ALL and a score of 0 or 1 are good candidates for an early transplant if they have an identical sibling donor. Patient age, response to induction and the sex of the HLA-identical family donor (if existing) are the strongest easy predictors of the outcome for an early transplant in an adult patient with ALL. No additional information is mandatory.

Patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia allografted with a matched unrelated donor may have a lower survival with a peripheral blood stem cell graft compared to bone marrow.

We analysed data for 213 patients with ALL and AML who received either peripheral blood stem cells (PBSC) (n=74) or bone marrow (BM) (n=139) from an HLA-matched unrelated donor (EBMT acute leukaemia registry; January 1994 to January 1999). The two groups of patients (by cell source) were comparable with respect to age, sex, disease status, year at transplant and graft T cell depletion. Engraftment was achieved in about 90% regardless of stem cell source or leukaemia type. Kinetics of neutrophil and platelet recovery, similar for both sources in ALL patients, were faster for PBSC in AML patients. The incidence of acute graft-versus-host disease was similar for both sources in AML patients, but higher for PBSC in ALL patients (74 vs 54%, P=0.05). The 1-year probability of chronic graft-versus-host disease was 40 and 45% (P=0.66) in ALL patients compared to 49 and 35% (P=0.13) in AML patients (PBSC vs BM). In AML patients, none of the following differed significantly with cell source: transplant-related mortality, relapse incidence, leukaemia-free survival and overall survival. In ALL patients, the transplant-related mortality for PBSC vs BM was 61 vs 47% (P=0.13), the relapse incidence was 47 vs 39% (P=0.17), the leukaemia-free survival was 21 vs 32% (P=0.04) and the overall survival was 24 vs 34% (P=0.04). These data suggest that the short-term outcome of allogeneic PBSC is not significantly different from that of BM in AML patients who underwent a transplant from a matched unrelated donor but, conversely, that survival with PBSC may be decreased in ALL patients. In conclusion, the source of transplant cells needs to be evaluated by disease, especially when dealing with unrelated donors.

Characterization of loose and tight dimer forms of avian leukosis virus RNA.

Retroviral genomes consist of two identical RNA molecules joined non-covalently near their 5'-ends. Recently, we showed that an imperfect autocomplementary sequence, located in the L3 domain, plays an essential role in avian sarcoma-leukosis virus (ASLV) RNA dimerization in vitro. This sequence can adopt a stem-loop structure and is involved in ASLV replication. Here, we found that in the absence of nucleocapsid protein, RNA transcripts of avian leukosis virus (ALV) were able to form two types of dimers in vitro that differ in their stability: a loose dimer, formed at a physiological temperature, and a tight dimer, formed at a high temperature. A mutational analysis was performed to define the features of these dimers. The results of this analysis unambiguously confirm that the two L3 stem-loops interact directly in both types of dimers. A loop-loop interaction is the main linkage in the loose dimer. In contrast, in the tight dimer, the stem and the loop of the L3 hairpin form an extended duplex. Surprisingly, we also found that the dimerization properties defined for our ALV strain (type SR-A) differ from those found in other ASLV strains.