A luminous fast radio burst that probes the Universe at redshift 1.

Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are millisecond-duration pulses of radio emission originating from extragalactic distances. Radio dispersion is imparted on each burst by intervening plasma, mostly located in the intergalactic medium. In this work, we observe the burst FRB 20220610A and localize it to a morphologically complex host galaxy system at redshift 1.016 ± 0.002. The burst redshift and dispersion measure are consistent with passage through a substantial column of plasma in the intergalactic medium and extend the relationship between those quantities measured at lower redshift. The burst shows evidence for passage through additional turbulent magnetized plasma, potentially associated with the host galaxy. We use the burst energy of 2 × 1042 erg to revise the empirical maximum energy of an FRB.

A census of baryons in the Universe from localized fast radio bursts.

More than three-quarters of the baryonic content of the Universe resides in a highly diffuse state that is difficult to detect, with only a small fraction directly observed in galaxies and galaxy clusters1,2. Censuses of the nearby Universe have used absorption line spectroscopy3,4 to observe the 'invisible' baryons, but these measurements rely on large and uncertain corrections and are insensitive to most of the Universe's volume and probably most of its mass. In particular, quasar spectroscopy is sensitive either to the very small amounts of hydrogen that exist in the atomic state, or to highly ionized and enriched gas4-6 in denser regions near galaxies7. Other techniques to observe these invisible baryons also have limitations; Sunyaev-Zel'dovich analyses8,9 can provide evidence from gas within filamentary structures, and studies of X-ray emission are most sensitive to gas near galaxy clusters9,10. Here we report a measurement of the baryon content of the Universe using the dispersion of a sample of localized fast radio bursts; this technique determines the electron column density along each line of sight and accounts for every ionized baryon11-13. We augment the sample of reported arcsecond-localized14-18 fast radio bursts with four new localizations in host galaxies that have measured redshifts of 0.291, 0.118, 0.378 and 0.522. This completes a sample sufficiently large to account for dispersion variations along the lines of sight and in the host-galaxy environments11, and we derive a cosmic baryon density of [Formula: see text] (95 per cent confidence; h70 = H0/(70 km s-1 Mpc-1) and H0 is Hubble's constant). This independent measurement is consistent with values derived from the cosmic microwave background and from Big Bang nucleosynthesis19,20.

A single fast radio burst localized to a massive galaxy at cosmological distance.

Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are brief radio emissions from distant astronomical sources. Some are known to repeat, but most are single bursts. Nonrepeating FRB observations have had insufficient positional accuracy to localize them to an individual host galaxy. We report the interferometric localization of the single-pulse FRB 180924 to a position 4 kiloparsecs from the center of a luminous galaxy at redshift 0.3214. The burst has not been observed to repeat. The properties of the burst and its host are markedly different from those of the only other accurately localized FRB source. The integrated electron column density along the line of sight closely matches models of the intergalactic medium, indicating that some FRBs are clean probes of the baryonic component of the cosmic web.

Short-term changes observed in multiparametric liver MRI following therapy with direct-acting antivirals in chronic hepatitis C virus patients.

METHODS: We applied multiparametric MRI to assess changes in liver composition, perfusion and blood flow in 17 patients before direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy and after treatment completion (within 12 weeks of last DAA tablet swallowed). RESULTS: We observed changes in hepatic composition indicated by a reduction in both liver longitudinal relaxation time (T1, 35 ± 4 ms), transverse relaxation time (T2, 2.5 ± 0.8 ms; T2* 3.0 ± 0.7 ms), and liver perfusion (28.1 ± 19.7 ml/100 g/min) which we suggest are linked to reduced pro-inflammatory milieu, including interstitial oedema, within the liver. No changes were observed in liver or spleen blood flow, splenic perfusion, or superior mesenteric artery blood flow. CONCLUSION: For the first time, our study has shown that treatment of HCV with DAAs in patients with cirrhosis leads to an acute reduction in liver T1, T2 and T2* and an increase in liver perfusion measured using MR parameters. The ability of MRI to characterise changes in the angio-architecture of patients with cirrhosis after intervention in the short term will enhance our understanding of the natural history of regression of liver disease and potentially influence clinical decision algorithms. KEY POINTS: • DAAs have revolutionised the treatment of hepatitis C and achieve sustained virological response in over 95% of patients, even with liver cirrhosis. • Currently available non-invasive measures of liver fibrosis are not accurate after HCV treatment with DAAs, this prospective single-centre study has shown that MRI can sensitively measure changes within the liver, which could reflect the reduction in inflammation with viral clearance. • The ability of MRI to characterise changes in structural and haemodynamic MRI measures in the liver after intervention will enhance our understanding of the progression/regression of liver disease and could potentially influence clinical decision algorithms.

A dust-enshrouded tidal disruption event with a resolved radio jet in a galaxy merger.

Tidal disruption events (TDEs) are transient flares produced when a star is ripped apart by the gravitational field of a supermassive black hole (SMBH). We have observed a transient source in the western nucleus of the merging galaxy pair Arp 299 that radiated >1.5 × 1052 erg at infrared and radio wavelengths but was not luminous at optical or x-ray wavelengths. We interpret this as a TDE with much of its emission reradiated at infrared wavelengths by dust. Efficient reprocessing by dense gas and dust may explain the difference between theoretical predictions and observed luminosities of TDEs. The radio observations resolve an expanding and decelerating jet, probing the jet formation and evolution around a SMBH.

The burden, epidemiology, costs and treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy: an evidence review.

BACKGROUND: Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) is a rapidly progressive, lethal neuromuscular disorder, present from birth, which occurs almost exclusively in males. We have reviewed contemporary evidence of burden, epidemiology, illness costs and treatment patterns of DMD. This systematic review adhered to published methods with information also sought from the web and contacting registries. Searches were carried out from 2005 to June 2015. The population of interest was individuals with clearly defined DMD or their carers. RESULTS: Nine thousand eight hundred fifty titles were retrieved from searches. Fifty-eight studies were reviewed with three assessed as high, 33 as medium and 22 as low quality. We found two studies reporting birth and four reporting point prevalence, three reporting mortality, 41 reporting severity and/or progression, 18 reporting treatment patterns, 12 reporting quality of life, two reporting utility measures, three reporting costs of illness and three treatment guidelines. Birth prevalence ranged from 15.9 to 19.5 per 100,000 live births. Point prevalence per 100,000 males was for France, USA, UK and Canada, 10.9, 1.9, 2.2 and 6.1 respectively. A study of adult DMD patients at a centre in France found median survival for those born between 1970 and 1994 was 40.95 years compared to 25.77 years for those born between 1955 and 1969. Loss of ambulation occurred at a median age of 12 and ventilation starts at about 20 years. There was international variation in use of corticosteroids, scoliosis surgery, ventilation and physiotherapy. The economic cost of DMD climbs dramatically with disease progression - rising as much as 5.7 fold from the early ambulatory phase to the non-ambulatory phase in Germany. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first systematic review of treatment, progression, severity and quality of life in DMD. It also provides the most recent description of the burden, epidemiology, illness costs and treatment patterns in DMD. There are evidence gaps, particularly in prevalence and mortality. People with DMD seem to be living longer, possibly due to corticosteroid use, cardiac medical management and ventilation. Future research should incorporate registry data to improve comparability across time and between countries and to investigate the quality of life impact as the condition progresses.

Population pharmacokinetics of teicoplanin and attainment of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic targets in adult patients with haematological malignancy.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the population pharmacokinetics of teicoplanin in adult patients with haematological malignancies receiving higher than standard doses, and to perform Monte Carlo simulations to determine dosing regimens associated with optimal teicoplanin concentrations. METHODS: This was a hospital-based clinical trial (EudraCT 2013-004535-72). Nine blood samples were collected on Day 3, plus single trough samples on Days 7 and 10, and 24 and 48 hours after the last dose. Teicoplanin minimum inhibitory concentrations were determined for Gram-positive isolates from study patients. Population pharmacokinetic analyses and Monte Carlo dosing simulations were undertaken using Pmetrics. RESULTS: Thirty adult haematological malignancy patients were recruited with a mean (SD) loading dose, age, total body weight, and creatinine clearance of 9.5 (1.9) mg/kg, 63 (12) years, 69.1 (15.8) kg, and 72 (41) mL/min, respectively. A three-compartment linear pharmacokinetic model best described the teicoplanin concentration data. Covariates supported for inclusion in the final model were creatinine clearance for clearance and total body weight for volume of the central compartment. The median (IQR) area under the concentration-time curve from 48 to 72 hours (AUC48-72h) was 679 (319) mg.h/L. There was a strong correlation between the AUC48-72h and trough concentration at 72 hours (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.957, p <0.001). Dosing simulations showed that administration of five loading doses at 12-hourly intervals, stratified by total body weight and creatinine clearance, increased the probability of achieving target concentrations within 72 hours. CONCLUSIONS: To increase the number of patients achieving optimal teicoplanin concentrations an individualized dosing approach, based on body weight and creatinine clearance, is recommended.

Extended duration therapy with pegylated interferon and ribavirin for patients with genotype 3 hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis: final results from the STEPS trial.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with genotype 3 hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and cirrhosis have poor response rates after 24 weeks treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin. Treatment for 48 weeks is therefore recommended, although the benefits of this are untested. We examined extended therapy in patients with genotype 3 HCV and advanced fibrosis. METHODS: Multicentre, open labelled randomized trial comparing therapy with 24 weeks pegylated interferon and ribavirin to 48 weeks of the same therapy. RESULTS: 136 patients completed the study. 67 received 24 weeks therapy and the SVR rate (48%) did not differ from that seen in the 69 patients who received 48 weeks therapy (42%). The response rates in patients with biopsy proven cirrhosis (13 patients treated for 24 weeks, 18 patients treated for 48 weeks) or cirrhosis proven on imaging (28 patients treated for 24 weeks and 25 patients treated for 48 weeks) were 46% in those treated for 24 weeks and 40% in those treated for 48 weeks. The differences were not significantly different. Treatment failure was due to relapse in the majority of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with genotype 3 HCV and advanced fibrosis do not benefit from extended therapy with pegylated interferon and ribavirin.

SeHCAT [tauroselcholic (selenium-75) acid] for the investigation of bile acid malabsorption and measurement of bile acid pool loss: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: The principal diagnosis/indication for this assessment is chronic diarrhoea due to bile acid malabsorption (BAM). Diarrhoea can be defined as the abnormal passage of loose or liquid stools more than three times daily and/or a daily stool weight > 200 g per day and is considered to be chronic if it persists for more than 4 weeks. The cause of chronic diarrhoea in adults is often difficult to ascertain and patients may undergo several investigations without a definitive cause being identified. BAM is one of several causes of chronic diarrhoea and results from failure to absorb bile acids (which are required for the absorption of dietary fats and sterols in the intestine) in the distal ileum. OBJECTIVE: For people with chronic diarrhoea with unknown cause and in people with Crohn's disease and chronic diarrhoea with unknown cause (i.e. before resection): (1) What are the effects of selenium-75-homocholic acid taurine (SeHCAT) compared with no SeHCAT in terms of chronic diarrhoea, other health outcomes and costs? (2) What are the effects of bile acid sequestrants (BASs) compared with no BASs in people with a positive or negative SeHCAT test? (3) Does a positive or negative SeHCAT test predict improvement in terms of chronic diarrhoea, other health outcomes and costs? DATA SOURCES: A systematic review was conducted to summarise the evidence on the clinical effectiveness of SeHCAT for the assessment of BAM and the measurement of bile acid pool loss. Search strategies were based on target condition and intervention, as recommended in the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) guidance for undertaking reviews in health care and the Cochrane Handbook for Diagnostic Test Accuracy Reviews. The following databases were searched up to April 2012: MEDLINE; MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations; EMBASE; the Cochrane Databases; Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects; Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Database; and Science Citation Index. Research registers and conference proceedings were also searched. REVIEW METHODS: Systematic review methods followed the principles outlined in the CRD guidance for undertaking reviews in health care and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Diagnostic Assessment Programme interim methods statement. In the health economic analysis, the cost-effectiveness of SeHCAT for the assessment of BAM, in patients with chronic diarrhoea, was estimated in two different populations. The first is the population of patients with chronic diarrhoea with unknown cause and symptoms suggestive of diarrhoea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS-D) and the second population concerns patients with Crohn's disease without ileal resection with chronic diarrhoea. For each population, three models were combined: (1) a short-term decision tree that models the diagnostic pathway and initial response to treatment (first 6 months); (2) a long-term Markov model that estimates the lifetime costs and effects for patients initially receiving BAS; and (3) a long-term Markov model that estimates the lifetime costs and effects for patients initially receiving regular treatment (IBS-D treatment in the first population and Crohn's treatment in the second population). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated as additional cost per additional responder in the short term (first 6 months) and per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) in the long term (lifetime). RESULTS: We found three studies assessing the relationship between the SeHCAT test and response to treatment with cholestyramine. However, the studies had small numbers of patients with unknown cause chronic diarrhoea, and they used different cut-offs to define BAM. For the short term (first 6 months), when trial of treatment is not considered as a comparator, the optimal choice depends on the willingness to pay for an additional responder. For lower values (between £1500 and £4600) the choice will be no SeHCAT in all scenarios; for higher values either SeHCAT 10% or SeHCAT 15% becomes cost-effective. For the lifetime perspective, the various scenarios showed widely differing results: in the threshold range of £20,000-30,000 per QALY gained we found as optimal choice either no SeHCAT, SeHCAT 5% (only IBS-D) or SeHCAT 15%. When trial of treatment is considered a comparator, the analysis showed that for the short term, trial of treatment is the optimal choice across a range of scenarios. For the lifetime perspective with trial of treatment, again the various scenarios show widely differing results. Depending on the scenario, in the threshold range of £20,000-30,000 per QALY gained, we found as optimal choice either trial of treatment, no SeHCAT or SeHCAT 15%. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the various analyses show that for both populations considerable decision uncertainty exists and that no firm conclusions can be formulated about which strategy is optimal. Standardisation of the definition of a positive SeHCAT test should be the first step in assessing the usefulness of this test. As there is no reference standard for the diagnosis of BAM and SeHCAT testing provides a continuous measure of metabolic function, diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) studies are not the most appropriate study design. However, in studies where all patients are tested with SeHCAT and all patients are treated with BASs, response to treatment can provide a surrogate reference standard; further DTA studies of this type may provide information on the ability of SeHCAT to predict response to BASs. A potentially more informative option would be multivariate regression modelling of treatment response (dependent variable), with SeHCAT result and other candidate clinical predictors as covariates. Such a study design could also inform the definition of a positive SeHCAT result. STUDY REGISTRATION: The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012001911. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Tumour vasculature targeting agents in hybrid/conjugate drugs.

Tumour vasculature targeting has been a very active area of cancer drug discovery over the last decade. Growth of solid tumours beyond a certain point requires a sufficient blood supply in order for them to develop and metastasise. While novel anti-angiogenic and vascular disrupting agents represent an important contribution to the armoury of anti-cancer agents they nevertheless usually require combination with standard cytotoxic therapy in order to demonstrate positive clinical outcomes. In line with this consensus, a new concept has arisen, namely the design of functional hybrids where at least one component of the design targets a tumour angiogenic/vasculature pathway. This review will outline examples of such hybrid/conjugate-based approaches. Emphasis will be placed on their preclinical evaluation with particular focus on the RGD/NGR-conjugates, heparin-related hybrids and antibody-drug conjugates. In conclusion, the benefits and shortcomings of hybrids under development will be discussed in the context of future directions and applications.

Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test accurately identifies liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Assessment of liver fibrosis is important in determining prognosis and evaluating interventions. Due to limitations of accuracy and patient hazard of liver biopsy, non-invasive methods have been sought to provide information on liver fibrosis, including the European liver fibrosis (ELF) test, shown to have good diagnostic accuracy for the detection of moderate and severe fibrosis. Access to independent cohorts of patients has provided an opportunity to explore if this test could be simplified. This paper reports the simplification of the ELF test and its ability to identity severity of liver fibrosis in external validation studies in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Paired biopsy and serum samples from 347 naïve patients with CHC in three independent cohorts were analysed. Diagnostic performance characteristics were derived (AUROC, sensitivity and specificity, predictive values), and clinical utility modelling performed to determine the proportion of biopsies that could have been avoided if ELF test was used in this patient group. It was possible to simplify the original ELF test without loss of performance and the new algorithm is reported. The simplified ELF test was able to predict severe fibrosis [pooled AUROC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.81-0.89)] and using clinical utility modelling to predict severe fibrosis (Ishak stages 4-6; METAVIR stages 3 and 4) 81% of biopsies could have been avoided (65% correctly). Issues of spectrum effect in diagnostic test evaluations are discussed. In chronic hepatitis C a simplified ELF test can detect severe liver fibrosis with good accuracy.

Development of a decision support tool for primary care management of patients with abnormal liver function tests without clinically apparent liver disease: a record-linkage population cohort study and decision analysis (ALFIE).

OBJECTIVES: To determine the natural history of abnormalities in liver function tests (LFTs), derive predictive algorithms for liver disease and identify the most cost-effective strategies for further investigation. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE database from 1966 to September 2006, EMBASE, CINAHL and the Cochrane Library. METHODS: Population-based retrospective cohort study set in primary care in Tayside, Scotland, between 1989 and 2003. Participants were patients with no obvious signs of liver disease and registered with a general practitioner (GP). The study followed up those with an incident batch of LFTs in primary care to subsequent liver disease or mortality over a maximum of 15 years. The health technologies being assessed were primary care LFTs, viral and autoantibody tests, ultrasound and liver biopsy. Measures used were the epidemiology of liver disease in Tayside (ELDIT) database, time-to-event modelling, predictive algorithms derived using the Weibull survival model, decision analyses from an NHS perspective, cost-utility analyses, and one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: A total of 95,977 patients had 364,194 initial LFTs, with a median follow-up of 3.7 years. Of these, 21.7% had at least one abnormal liver function test (ALFT) and 1090 (1.14%) developed liver disease. Elevated transaminases were strongly associated with diagnosed liver disease, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 4.23 [95% CI (confidence interval) 3.55-5.04] for mild levels and 12.67 (95% CI 9.74-16.47) for severe levels versus normal. For gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), these HRs were 2.54 (95% CI 2.17-2.96) and 13.44 (10.71-16.87) respectively. Low albumin was strongly associated with all cause mortality, with ratios of 2.65 (95% CI 2.47-2.85) for mild levels and 4.99 (95% CI 4.26-5.84) for severe levels. Sensitivity for predicting events over 5 years was low and specificity was high. Follow-up time was split into baseline to 3 months, 3 months to 1 year and over 1 year. All LFTs were predictive of liver disease, and high probability of liver disease was associated with being female, methadone use, alcohol dependency and deprivation. The shorter-term models had overall c-statistics of 0.85 and 0.72 for outcome of liver disease at 3 months and 1 year respectively, and 0.88 and 0.82 for all cause mortality at 3 months and 1 year respectively. Calibration was good for models predicting liver disease. Discrimination was low for models predicting events at over 1 year. In cost-utility analyses, retesting dominated referral as an option. However, using the predictive algorithms to identify the top percentile at high risk of liver disease, retesting had an incremental cost-utility ratio of 7588 pounds relative to referral. CONCLUSIONS: GGT should be included in the batch of LFTs in primary care. If the patient in primary care has no obvious liver disease and a low or moderate risk of liver disease, retesting in primary care is the most cost-effective option. If the patient with ALFTs in primary care has a high risk of liver disease, retesting depends on the willingness to pay of the NHS. Cut-offs are arbitrary and in developing decision aids it is important to treat the LFT results as continuous variables.

Surveillance of cirrhosis for hepatocellular carcinoma: a cost-utility analysis.

Using a decision-analytic model, we evaluated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in individuals with cirrhosis. Separate cohorts with cirrhosis due to alcoholic liver disease, hepatitis B and hepatitis C were simulated. Results were also combined to approximate a mixed aetiology population. Comparisons were made between a variety of surveillance algorithms using alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) assay and/or ultrasound at 6- and 12-monthly intervals. Parameter estimates were obtained from comprehensive literature reviews. Uncertainty was explored using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In the mixed aetiology cohort, 6-monthly AFP+ultrasound was predicted to be the most effective strategy. The model estimates that, compared with no surveillance, this strategy may triple the number of people with operable tumours at diagnosis and almost halve the number of people who die from HCC. The cheapest strategy employed triage with annual AFP (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER): 20,700 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained). At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30,000 pounds per QALY the most cost-effective strategy used triage with 6-monthly AFP (ICER: 27,600 pounds per QALY gained). The addition of ultrasound to this strategy increased the ICER to 60,100 pounds per QALY gained. Surveillance appears most cost-effective in individuals with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis, potentially due to younger age at diagnosis of cirrhosis. Our results suggest that, in a UK NHS context, surveillance of individuals with cirrhosis for HCC should be considered effective and cost-effective. The economic efficiency of different surveillance strategies is predicted to vary markedly according to cirrhosis aetiology.

Response rates to combination therapy for chronic HCV infection in a clinical setting and derivation of probability tables for individual patient management.

Evidence for efficacy of established treatment guidelines for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease is based on multinational randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Strategies for managing HCV, however, require an assessment of the effectiveness of intervention in routine clinical practice. We report the outcomes of combination therapy in a large cohort of HCV-infected individuals in the UK. A total of 347 (113 genotype 1, 234 genotype non-1) patients were treated with pegylated interferon and ribavirin according to current guidelines. Forty-two (37.2%) of those with genotype 1 infection and 164 (70.1%) with genotype non-1 infection achieved sustained viral response (SVR). Thirty-nine (11%) patients withdrew from treatment. In addition to viral genotype, factors predictive of a response to therapy were age at start of treatment and disease stage on pretreatment liver biopsy. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that the effects of age [odds ratio 0.5; 95% confidence interval (0.31-0.82) per 10-year increment (P = 0.006)] were confined to genotype 1 disease. In order to further inform the management of the individual patient, a multivariate logistic model was used to predict the probability of SVR for subgroups defined by disease stage, genotype and age at commencement of therapy. This model revealed striking differences in predicted response rates between subgroups and provided a strong rationale for early treatment, particularly for those with genotype 1 disease. Our study demonstrates that results comparable with those of RCTs can be achieved in clinical practice, and suggests that prediction of response rates based on probability modelling will provide a valuable adjunct to individual patient management.

Surveillance of cirrhosis for hepatocellular carcinoma: systematic review and economic analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of surveillance of patients with cirrhosis [alcoholic liver disease (ALD)-, hepatitis B (HBV)- and C virus (HCV)-related], using periodic serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) testing and/or liver ultrasound examination, to detect hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), followed by treatment with liver transplantation or resection, where appropriate. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched up to March 2006. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic review was carried out using standard methodological guidelines. A computerised decision-analytic model was then developed to compare various surveillance strategies. RESULTS: No studies were identified that met the criteria of the systematic review. Based on the assumptions used in the model, the most effective surveillance strategy uses a combination of AFP testing and ultrasound at 6-monthly intervals. Compared with no surveillance, this strategy is estimated to more than triple the number of people with operable HCC tumours at time of diagnosis, and almost halves the number of deaths from HCC. On all effectiveness measures and at both testing frequencies, AFP- and ultrasound-led surveillance strategies are very similar. This may be because test sensitivity was varied according to tumour size, which means that AFP testing is capable of identifying many more small tumours than ultrasound. The best available evidence suggests that AFP tests will detect approximately six times as many small tumours as ultrasound. Increasing the frequency of either test to 6-monthly intervals is more effective than performing combined testing on an annual basis. The undiscounted lifetime cost of the surveillance strategies, including all care and treatment costs, ranges from 40,300 pounds (annual AFP triage) to 42,900 pounds (6-monthly AFP and ultrasound). The equivalent discounted costs are 28,400 pounds and 30,400 pounds. Only a small proportion of these total costs results from the cost of the screening tests. However, screening test costs, and the cost of liver transplants and caring for people post-transplant, accounted for most of the incremental cost differences between alternative surveillance strategies. The results suggest that different surveillance strategies may provide the best value for money in patient groups of different cirrhosis aetiologies. The surveillance of people with HBV-related cirrhosis for HCC provides the best value for money, while surveillance in people with ALD-related cirrhosis provides the poorest value for money. In people with HBV-related cirrhosis, at an assumed maximum willingness to pay (WTP) for a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of 30,000 pounds, both the deterministic and probabilistic cost-utility analyses suggest the optimal surveillance strategy would be 6-monthly surveillance with the combination of AFP testing and ultrasound. In contrast, for those with ALD-related cirrhosis, annual screening with AFP as a triage test is the only surveillance strategy that is likely to be considered cost-effective at this WTP. The probabilistic analysis implies that the estimated benefits of a 6-monthly AFP triage strategy will only be worth the cost in those with ALD when society's WTP for a QALY exceeds around 40,000 pounds. For people with HCV-related cirrhosis, the model suggests that the most cost-effective surveillance strategy at a WTP threshold of 30,000 pounds/QALY would be surveillance with a 6-monthly AFP triage strategy. CONCLUSIONS: In a mixed-aetiology cohort, the most effective surveillance strategy is to screen each patient with AFP assay and ultrasound imaging on a 6-monthly basis. However, when costs are taken into account it is doubtful whether ultrasound should be routinely offered to those with blood AFP of less than 20 ng/ml, unless policy-makers are prepared to pay over 60,000 pounds per QALY for the benefits achieved. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of surveillance for HCC varies considerably depending on the aetiology of cirrhosis; it is much more likely to be cost-effective in those with HBV-related cirrhosis, and much less likely to be cost-effective in those with ALD-related cirrhosis. Further development of the model would help to enable refinement of an optimal screening strategy. Research into the use of contrast-enhanced ultrasound technology for HCC detection would also be valuable, as would research into the epidemiology and natural history of ALD-related cirrhosis. Studies are also needed to investigate the influence of cirrhosis aetiology on tumour AFP expression.

Clinical pathways for patients with newly diagnosed hepatitis C - what actually happens.

Management of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected individuals requires referral to specialist care. To determine whether patients newly diagnosed as anti-HCV positive are appropriately referred for further investigation and management, and if not, to determine why not. We studied patients tested for antibodies to HCV by Nottingham Public Health Laboratory in a 2-year period (2000-2002). The progress of newly diagnosed anti-HCV positive patients into specialist clinics for further management was documented. For patients not referred for specialist care, a questionnaire was sent to the clinician requesting the initial anti-HCV test, to identify reasons for nonreferral. Eleven thousand one hundred and seventy-seven patients were tested for anti-HCV. Two hundred and fifty-six (2.3%) were newly diagnosed as being anti-HCV positive. Two per cent of samples sent from primary care were anti-HCV positive, compared to 18.8, 18.9 and 1.3% sent from prison, drug and alcohol units, and secondary care, respectively. About 64.3% of positive patients diagnosed in primary care were referred to specialist care, compared to 18.4, 42.4 and 62.6% of patients diagnosed in the other three settings. One hundred and twenty-five (49%) newly diagnosed patients were referred appropriately for further management. 68 of these attended clinic, 45 underwent liver biopsy and 26 (10%) began treatment. One hundred and thirty-one patients (51%) were not referred. In 54 cases, there was no evidence that the anti-HCV positive result reached the patient. In 15, referral was considered but rejected, and 20 patients were referred to non-HCV-specialists (their general practitioners or to genito-urinary medicine). Hence less than 50% of newly diagnosed anti-HCV positive patients are referred to an appropriate clinic for further investigation and management. Reasons for this are multifarious and complex, reflecting both systems failure and patient choice. Unless these are understood and addressed, the Department of Health Hepatitis C Strategy (2002) and Action Plan for England (2004) will fail to achieve their intended objectives.

Improving diagnostic yield of biliary brushings cytology for pancreatic cancer and cholangiocarcinoma.

Biliary brushings are currently the best accepted method to obtain a cytological diagnosis of pancreatic cancer or cholangiocarcinoma. The technique has good specificity but poor sensitivity. Two dedicated pathologists reviewed 137 consecutive biliary brushings from 127 patients between February 1997 and February 2000. The ultimate diagnosis was determined by review of radiology, operative diagnosis and patient outcome. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the original results and the review results were calculated and compared. Additional diagnostic categories 'suspicious' and 'atypical possibly benign' were included on review. After review, the sensitivity improved from 49.4% to 89.0% and the specificity remained 100%. The use of the additional diagnostic category 'suspicious' increased the sensitivity to 90.4%, at the expense of a fall of the specificity to 66.7%. We conclude that review by two dedicated pathologists and additional diagnostic categories can improve the diagnostic accuracy of biliary brushings.

Demonstration of lateral transmission of scrapie between sheep kept under natural conditions using lymphoid tissue biopsy.

Scrapie free adult sheep were introduced to a sheep flock specifically maintained to maximise scrapie infection. Native born sheep of the highly susceptible VRQ/VRQ genotype in this flock show highly efficient transmission, evidenced by 100% infection, with an age at death of less than 2 years. Infection in introduced sheep was identified by biopsy of tonsilar and nictitating membrane lymphoid tissue. Progeny of these sheep were monitored and clinical disease confirmed by examination of the brain using routine diagnostic methods. Naïve sheep of New Zealand origin introduced to the flock in adulthood became infected, demonstrating that lateral transmission had occurred. Lambs born to introduced ewes became infected and died at the same age as lambs born to native ewes, consistent with lateral transmission of scrapie to lambs. Although maternal transmission cannot be totally excluded for the lambs in this study, the data are consistent with lateral transmission being the most important means of spread leading to the high incidence of scrapie observed in this flock.

Progression of hepatic fibrosis in patients with hepatitis C: a prospective repeat liver biopsy study.

BACKGROUND: The natural history of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains uncertain. Previous data concerning rates of progression are from studies using estimated dates of infection and single liver biopsy scores. We prospectively studied the rate of progression of fibrosis in HCV infected patients by repeat liver biopsies without intervening treatment. PATIENTS: We studied 214 HCV infected patients (126 male; median age 36 years (range 5-8)) with predominantly mild liver disease who were prospectively followed without treatment and assessed for risk factors for progression of liver disease. Interbiopsy interval was a median of 2.5 years. Paired biopsies from the same patient were scored by the same pathologist. RESULTS: Seventy of 219 (33%) patients showed progression of at least 1 fibrosis point in the Ishak score; 23 progressed at least 2 points. Independent predictors of progression were age at first biopsy and any fibrosis on first biopsy. Factors not associated with progression were: necroinflammation, duration of infection, alcohol consumption, alanine aminotransferase levels, current or past hepatitis B virus infection, ferritin, HCV genotype, and steatosis or iron deposition in the initial biopsy. CONCLUSIONS: One third of patients with predominantly mild hepatitis C showed significant fibrosis progression over a median period of 30 months. Histologically, mild hepatitis C is a progressive disease. The overall rate of fibrosis progression in patients with hepatitis C was low but increased in patients who were older or had fibrosis on their index biopsy. These data suggest that HCV infection will place an increasing burden on health care services in the next 20 years.