Current challenges in focal epilepsy treatment: An Italian Delphi consensus.

BACKGROUND: Epilepsy, a globally prevalent neurological condition, presents distinct challenges in management, particularly for focal-onset types. This study aimed at addressing the current challenges and perspectives in focal epilepsy management, with focus on the Italian reality. METHODS: Using the Delphi methodology, this research collected and analyzed the level of consensus of a panel of Italian epilepsy experts on key aspects of focal epilepsy care. Areas of focus included patient flow, treatment pathways, controlled versus uncontrolled epilepsy, follow-up protocols, and the relevance of patient-reported outcomes (PROs). This method allowed for a comprehensive assessment of consensus and divergences in clinical opinions and practices. RESULTS: The study achieved consensus on 23 out of 26 statements, with three items failing to reach a consensus. There was strong agreement on the importance of timely intervention, individualized treatment plans, regular follow-ups at Epilepsy Centers, and the role of PROs in clinical practice. In cases of uncontrolled focal epilepsy, there was a clear inclination to pursue alternative treatment options following the failure of two previous therapies. Divergent views were evident on the inclusion of epilepsy surgery in treatment for uncontrolled epilepsy and the routine necessity of EEG evaluations in follow-ups. Other key findings included concerns about the lack of pediatric-specific research limiting current therapeutic options in this patient population, insufficient attention to the transition from pediatric to adult care, and need for improved communication. The results highlighted the complexities in managing epilepsy, with broad consensus on patient care aspects, yet notable divergences in specific treatment and management approaches. CONCLUSION: The study offered valuable insights into the current state and complexities of managing focal-onset epilepsy. It highlighted many deficiencies in the therapeutic pathway of focal-onset epilepsy in the Italian reality, while it also underscored the importance of patient-centric care, the necessity of early and appropriate intervention, and individualized treatment approaches. The findings also called for continued research, policy development, and healthcare system improvements to enhance epilepsy management, highlighting the ongoing need for tailored healthcare solutions in this evolving field.

A novel method to value real options in health care: the case of a multicohort human papillomavirus vaccination strategy.

BACKGROUND: A large number of economic evaluations have already confirmed the cost-effectiveness of different human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Standard analyses might not capture the full economic value of novel vaccination programs because the cost-effectiveness paradigm fails to take into account the value of active management. Management decisions can be seen as real options, a term used to refer to the application of option pricing theory to the valuation of investments in nonfinancial assets in which much of the value is attributable to flexibility and learning over time. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this article was to discuss the potential advantages shown by using the payoff method in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing HPV immunization programs. METHODS: This was the first study, to the best of our knowledge, to use the payoff method to determine the real option values of 4 different HPV vaccination strategies targeting female subjects aged 12, 15, 18, and 25 years. The payoff method derives the real option value from the triangular payoff distribution of the project's net present value, which is treated as a triangular fuzzy number. To inform the real option model, cost-effectiveness data were derived from an empirically calibrated Bayesian model designed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a multicohort HPV vaccination strategy in the context of the current cervical cancer screening program in Italy. A net health benefit approach was used to calculate the expected fuzzy net present value for each of the 4 vaccination strategies evaluated. RESULTS: Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained seemed to be related to the number of cohorts targeted: a single cohort of girls aged 12 years (€10,955 [95% CI, -1,021 to 28,212]) revealed the lowest cost among the 4 alternative strategies evaluated. The real option valuation challenged the cost-effectiveness dominance of a single cohort of 12-year-old girls. The simultaneous vaccination of 2 cohorts of girls aged 12 and 15 years yielded a real option value (€17,723) equivalent to that attributed to a single cohort of 12-year-old girls (€17,460). CONCLUSIONS: The payoff method showed distinctive advantages in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing health care interventions, essentially determined by the replacement of the nonfuzzy numbers that are commonly used in cost-effectiveness analysis models, with fuzzy numbers as an input to inform the real option pricing method. The real option approach to value uncertainty makes policy making in health care an evolutionary process and creates a new "space" for decision-making choices.