Data-driven analyses of behavioral strategies to eliminate cysticercosis in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: The multi-host taeniosis/cysticercosis disease system is associated with significant neurological morbidity, as well as economic burden, globally. We investigated whether lower cost behavioral interventions are sufficient for local elimination of human cysticercosis in Boulkiemdé, Sanguié, and Nayala provinces of Burkina Faso. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Province-specific data on human behaviors (i.e., latrine use and pork consumption) and serological prevalence of human and pig disease were used to inform a deterministic, compartmental model of the taeniosis/cysticercosis disease system. Parameters estimated via Bayesian melding provided posterior distributions for comparing transmission rates associated with human ingestion of Taenia solium cysticerci due to undercooking and human exposure to T. solium eggs in the environment. Reductions in transmission via these pathways were modeled to determine required effectiveness of a market-focused cooking behavior intervention and a community-led sanitation and hygiene program, independently and in combination, for eliminating human cysticercosis as a public health problem (<1 case per 1000 population). Transmission of cysticerci due to consumption of undercooked pork was found to vary significantly across transmission settings. In Sanguié, the rate of transmission due to undercooking was 6% higher than that in Boulkiemdé (95% CI: 1.03, 1.09; p-value < 0.001) and 35% lower than that in Nayala (95% CI: 0.64, 0.66; p-value < 0.001). We found that 67% and 62% reductions in undercooking of pork consumed in markets were associated with elimination of cysticercosis in Nayala and Sanguié, respectively. Elimination of active cysticercosis in Boulkiemdé required a 73% reduction. Less aggressive reductions of 25% to 30% in human exposure to Taenia solium eggs through sanitation and hygiene programs were associated with elimination in the provinces. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite heterogeneity in effectiveness due to local transmission dynamics and behaviors, education on the importance of proper cooking, in combination with community-led sanitation and hygiene efforts, has implications for reducing morbidity due to cysticercosis and neurocysticercosis.

National- and state-level impact and cost-effectiveness of nonavalent HPV vaccination in the United States.

Every year in the United States more than 12,000 women are diagnosed with cervical cancer, a disease principally caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). Bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines protect against 66% of HPV-associated cervical cancers, and a new nonavalent vaccine protects against an additional 15% of cervical cancers. However, vaccination policy varies across states, and migration between states interdependently dilutes state-specific vaccination policies. To quantify the economic and epidemiological impacts of switching to the nonavalent vaccine both for individual states and for the nation as a whole, we developed a model of HPV transmission and cervical cancer incidence that incorporates state-specific demographic dynamics, sexual behavior, and migratory patterns. At the national level, the nonavalent vaccine was shown to be cost-effective compared with the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines at any coverage despite the greater per-dose cost of the new vaccine. Furthermore, the nonavalent vaccine remains cost-effective with up to an additional 40% coverage of the adolescent population, representing 80% of girls and 62% of boys. We find that expansion of coverage would have the greatest health impact in states with the lowest coverage because of the decreasing marginal returns of herd immunity. Our results show that if policies promoting nonavalent vaccine implementation and expansion of coverage are coordinated across multiple states, all states benefit both in health and in economic terms.

The Impact of Enhanced Screening and Treatment on Hepatitis C in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of interferon-free direct-acting antivirals (DAA) in treating chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) is limited by low screening and treatment rates, particularly among people who inject drugs (PWIDs). METHODS: To evaluate the levels of screening and treatment with interferon-free DAAs that are required to control HCV incidence and HCV-associated morbidity and mortality, we developed a transmission model, stratified by age and by injection drug use, and calibrated it to epidemiological data in the United States from 1992 to 2014. We quantified the impact of administration of DAAs at current and at enhanced screening and treatment rates, focusing on outcomes of HCV incidence, prevalence, compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplants, and mortality from 2015 to 2040. RESULTS: Increasing annual treatment of patients 4-fold-from the approximately 100 000 treated historically to 400 000-is predicted to prevent 526 084 (95% confidence interval, 466 615-593 347) cases of cirrhosis and 256 315 (201 589-316 114) HCV-associated deaths. By simultaneously increasing treatment capacity and increasing the number of HCV infections diagnosed, total HCV prevalence could fall to as low as 305 599 (222 955-422 110) infections by 2040. Complete elimination of HCV transmission in the United States through treatment with DAAs would require nearly universal screening of PWIDs, with an annual treatment rate of at least 30%. CONCLUSIONS: Interferon-free DAAs are projected to achieve marked reductions in HCV-associated morbidity and mortality. Aggressive expansion in HCV screening and treatment, particularly among PWIDs, would be required to eliminate HCV in the United States.