Protein Identification for Stroke Progression via Mendelian Randomization in Million Veteran Program and UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Individuals who have experienced a stroke, or transient ischemic attack, face a heightened risk of future cardiovascular events. Identification of genetic and molecular risk factors for subsequent cardiovascular outcomes may identify effective therapeutic targets to improve prognosis after an incident stroke. METHODS: We performed genome-wide association studies for subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; ncases=51 929; ncontrols=39 980) and subsequent arterial ischemic stroke (AIS; ncases=45 120; ncontrols=46 789) after the first incident stroke within the Million Veteran Program and UK Biobank. We then used genetic variants associated with proteins (protein quantitative trait loci) to determine the effect of 1463 plasma protein abundances on subsequent MACE using Mendelian randomization. RESULTS: Two variants were significantly associated with subsequent cardiovascular events: rs76472767 near gene RNF220 (odds ratio, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.64-0.85]; P=3.69×10-8) with subsequent AIS and rs13294166 near gene LINC01492 (odds ratio, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.37-1.67]; P=3.77×10-8) with subsequent MACE. Using Mendelian randomization, we identified 2 proteins with an effect on subsequent MACE after a stroke: CCL27 ([C-C motif chemokine 27], effect odds ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.66-0.88]; adjusted P=0.05) and TNFRSF14 ([tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily member 14], effect odds ratio, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.24-1.60]; adjusted P=0.006). These proteins are not associated with incident AIS and are implicated to have a role in inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence that 2 proteins with little effect on incident stroke appear to influence subsequent MACE after incident AIS. These associations suggest that inflammation is a contributing factor to subsequent MACE outcomes after incident AIS and highlights potential novel targets.

High Variability of Body Mass Index Is Independently Associated With Incident Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a serious condition with increasing prevalence, high morbidity, and increased mortality. Obesity is an established risk factor for HF. Fluctuation in body mass index (BMI) has shown a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the association between BMI variability and incident HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the UK Biobank, we established a prospective cohort after excluding participants with prevalent HF or cancer at enrollment. A total of 99 368 White participants with ≥3 BMI measures during >2 years preceding enrollment were included, with a median follow-up of 12.5 years. The within-participant variability of BMI was evaluated using standardized SD and coefficient of variation. The association of BMI variability with incident HF was assessed using Fine and Gray's competing risk model, adjusting for confounding factors and participant-specific rate of BMI change. Higher BMI variability measured in both SD and coefficient of variation was significantly associated with higher risk in HF incidence (SD: hazard ratio [HR], 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03-1.08], P<0.0001; coefficient of variation: HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.04-1.10], P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal health records capture BMI fluctuation, which independently predicts HF incidence.

Long-Term Body Mass Index Variability and Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes.

Importance: Body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is a commonly used estimate of obesity, which is a complex trait affected by genetic and lifestyle factors. Marked weight gain and loss could be associated with adverse biological processes. Objective: To evaluate the association between BMI variability and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in 2 distinct cohorts. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Million Veteran Program (MVP) between 2011 and 2018 and participants in the UK Biobank (UKB) enrolled between 2006 and 2010. Participants were followed up for a median of 3.8 (5th-95th percentile, 3.5) years. Participants with baseline CVD or cancer were excluded. Data were analyzed from September 2022 and September 2023. Exposure: BMI variability was calculated by the retrospective SD and coefficient of variation (CV) using multiple clinical BMI measurements up to the baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was incident composite CVD events (incident nonfatal myocardial infarction, acute ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death), assessed using Cox proportional hazards modeling after adjustment for CVD risk factors, including age, sex, mean BMI, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking status, diabetes status, and statin use. Secondary analysis assessed whether associations were dependent on the polygenic score of BMI. Results: Among 92 363 US veterans in the MVP cohort (81 675 [88%] male; mean [SD] age, 56.7 [14.1] years), there were 9695 Hispanic participants, 22 488 non-Hispanic Black participants, and 60 180 non-Hispanic White participants. A total of 4811 composite CVD events were observed from 2011 to 2018. The CV of BMI was associated with 16% higher risk for composite CVD across all groups (hazard ratio [HR], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.13-1.19). These associations were unchanged among subgroups and after adjustment for the polygenic score of BMI. The UKB cohort included 65 047 individuals (mean [SD] age, 57.30 (7.77) years; 38 065 [59%] female) and had 6934 composite CVD events. Each 1-SD increase in BMI variability in the UKB cohort was associated with 8% increased risk of cardiovascular death (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.04-1.11). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that among US veterans, higher BMI variability was a significant risk marker associated with adverse cardiovascular events independent of mean BMI across major racial and ethnic groups. Results were consistent in the UKB for the cardiovascular death end point. Further studies should investigate the phenotype of high BMI variability.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment Using Traditional Risk Factors and Polygenic Risk Scores in the Million Veteran Program.

Importance: Primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) relies on risk stratification. Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are proposed to improve ASCVD risk estimation. Objective: To determine whether genome-wide PRSs for coronary artery disease (CAD) and acute ischemic stroke improve ASCVD risk estimation with traditional clinical risk factors in an ancestrally diverse midlife population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a prognostic analysis of incident events in a retrospectively defined longitudinal cohort conducted from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2018. Included in the study were adults free of ASCVD and statin naive at baseline from the Million Veteran Program (MVP), a mega biobank with genetic, survey, and electronic health record data from a large US health care system. Data were analyzed from March 15, 2021, to January 5, 2023. Exposures: PRSs for CAD and ischemic stroke derived from cohorts of largely European descent and risk factors, including age, sex, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, smoking, and diabetes status. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, ASCVD death, and composite ASCVD events. Results: A total of 79 151 participants (mean [SD] age, 57.8 [13.7] years; 68 503 male [86.5%]) were included in the study. The cohort included participants from the following harmonized genetic ancestry and race and ethnicity categories: 18 505 non-Hispanic Black (23.4%), 6785 Hispanic (8.6%), and 53 861 non-Hispanic White (68.0%) with a median (5th-95th percentile) follow-up of 4.3 (0.7-6.9) years. From 2011 to 2018, 3186 MIs (4.0%), 1933 ischemic strokes (2.4%), 867 ASCVD deaths (1.1%), and 5485 composite ASCVD events (6.9%) were observed. CAD PRS was associated with incident MI in non-Hispanic Black (hazard ratio [HR], 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02-1.19), Hispanic (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.09-1.46), and non-Hispanic White (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.18-1.29) participants. Stroke PRS was associated with incident stroke in non-Hispanic White participants (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.08-1.21). A combined CAD plus stroke PRS was associated with ASCVD deaths among non-Hispanic Black (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17) and non-Hispanic (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.21) participants. The combined PRS was also associated with composite ASCVD across all ancestry groups but greater among non-Hispanic White (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.16-1.24) than non-Hispanic Black (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.17) and Hispanic (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.00-1.25) participants. Net reclassification improvement from adding PRS to a traditional risk model was modest for the intermediate risk group for composite CVD among men (5-year risk >3.75%, 0.38%; 95% CI, 0.07%-0.68%), among women, (6.79%; 95% CI, 3.01%-10.58%), for age older than 55 years (0.25%; 95% CI, 0.03%-0.47%), and for ages 40 to 55 years (1.61%; 95% CI, -0.07% to 3.30%). Conclusions and Relevance: Study results suggest that PRSs derived predominantly in European samples were statistically significantly associated with ASCVD in the multiancestry midlife and older-age MVP cohort. Overall, modest improvement in discrimination metrics were observed with addition of PRSs to traditional risk factors with greater magnitude in women and younger age groups.

High Variability of Body Mass Index Independently Associated with Incident Heart Failure.

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a serious condition with increasing prevalence, high morbidity, and increased mortality. Obesity is an established risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, including HF. Fluctuation in body mass index (BMI) has shown a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the association between BMI variability and incident HF. Methods: In the UK Biobank, we established a prospective cohort after excluding participants with prevalent HF or cancer at enrollment. A total of 99,368 White (British, Irish, and any other white background) participants with ≥ 3 BMI measures during > 2 years preceding enrollment were included, with a median follow-up of 12.5 years. The within-participant variability of BMI was evaluated using standardized standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV). The association of BMI variability with incident HF was assessed using Fine and Gray's competing risk model, and adjusted for age, sex, smoking history, alcohol consumption, diabetes, hypertension, history of heart attack, stroke, atrial fibrillation, lipids, estimated glomerular filtration rate and mean BMI per individual. Results: In the fully adjusted model, higher BMI variability measured in both SD and CV were significantly associated with higher risk in HF incidence (SD: Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.02 - 1.07, p = 0.0002; CV: HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04 - 1.09, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Longitudinal health records capture BMI fluctuation, which independently predicts HF incidence. Integration of long-term BMI and other routinely measured health factors may improve risk prediction of HF and other cardiovascular outcomes.

Plant-based diets and the incidence of cardiovascular disease: the Million Veteran Program.

Background: A healthful plant-based diet was associated with lower risks of coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes, and a favourable profile of adiposity-associated biomarkers, while an unhealthful plant-based diet was associated with elevated risk of cardiometabolic disease in health professional populations. However, little is known about the associations between plant-based dietary patterns and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in US veterans. Methods: The study population consisted of 148 506 participants who were free of diabetes, CVD and cancer at baseline in the Veterans Affairs (VA) Million Veteran Program. Diet was assessed using a Food Frequency Questionnaire at baseline. We calculated an overall Plant-Based Diet Index (PDI), a healthful PDI (hPDI) and an unhealthful PDI (uPDI). The CVD endpoints included non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) identified through high-throughput phenotyping algorithms approach and fatal CVD events identified by searching the National Death Index. Results: With up to 8 years of follow-up, we documented 5025 CVD cases. After adjustment for confounding factors, a higher PDI was significantly associated with a lower risk of CVD (HR comparing extreme quintiles=0.75, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.82, P trend<0.0001). We observed an inverse association between hPDI and the risk of CVD (HR comparing extreme quintiles=0.71, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.78, P trend<0.001), whereas uPDI was positively associated with the risk of CVD (HR comparing extreme quintiles=1.12, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.24, P trend<0.001). We found similar associations of hPDI with subtypes of CVD; a 10-unit increment in hPDI was associated with HRs (95% CI) of 0.81 (0.75 to 0.87) for fatal CVD, 0.86 (0.79 to 0.94) for non-fatal MI and 0.86 (0.78 to 0.95) for non-fatal AIS. Conclusions: Plant-based dietary pattern enriched with healthier plant foods was associated with a substantially lower CVD risk in US veterans.

A MUC5B Gene Polymorphism, rs35705950-T, Confers Protective Effects Against COVID-19 Hospitalization but Not Severe Disease or Mortality.

Rationale: A common MUC5B gene polymorphism, rs35705950-T, is associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but its role in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection and disease severity is unclear. Objectives: To assess whether rs35705950-T confers differential risk for clinical outcomes associated with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection among participants in the Million Veteran Program (MVP). Methods: The MUC5B rs35705950-T allele was directly genotyped among MVP participants; clinical events and comorbidities were extracted from the electronic health records. Associations between the incidence or severity of COVID-19 and rs35705950-T were analyzed within each ancestry group in the MVP followed by transancestry meta-analysis. Replication and joint meta-analysis were conducted using summary statistics from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (HGI). Sensitivity analyses with adjustment for additional covariates (body mass index, Charlson comorbidity index, smoking, asbestosis, rheumatoid arthritis with interstitial lung disease, and IPF) and associations with post-COVID-19 pneumonia were performed in MVP subjects. Measurements and Main Results: The rs35705950-T allele was associated with fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations in transancestry meta-analyses within the MVP (Ncases = 4,325; Ncontrols = 507,640; OR = 0.89 [0.82-0.97]; P = 6.86 × 10-3) and joint meta-analyses with the HGI (Ncases = 13,320; Ncontrols = 1,508,841; OR, 0.90 [0.86-0.95]; P = 8.99 × 10-5). The rs35705950-T allele was not associated with reduced COVID-19 positivity in transancestry meta-analysis within the MVP (Ncases = 19,168/Ncontrols = 492,854; OR, 0.98 [0.95-1.01]; P = 0.06) but was nominally significant (P < 0.05) in the joint meta-analysis with the HGI (Ncases = 44,820; Ncontrols = 1,775,827; OR, 0.97 [0.95-1.00]; P = 0.03). Associations were not observed with severe outcomes or mortality. Among individuals of European ancestry in the MVP, rs35705950-T was associated with fewer post-COVID-19 pneumonia events (OR, 0.82 [0.72-0.93]; P = 0.001). Conclusions: The MUC5B variant rs35705950-T may confer protection in COVID-19 hospitalizations.

Genome-wide and phenome-wide analysis of ideal cardiovascular health in the VA Million Veteran Program.

BACKGROUND: Genetic studies may help identify causal pathways; therefore, we sought to identify genetic determinants of ideal CVH and their association with CVD outcomes in the multi-population Veteran Administration Million Veteran Program. METHODS: An ideal health score (IHS) was calculated from 3 clinical factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, and blood glucose levels) and 3 behavioral factors (smoking status, physical activity, and BMI), ascertained at baseline. Multi-population genome-wide association study (GWAS) was performed on IHS and binary ideal health using linear and logistic regression, respectively. Using the genome-wide significant SNPs from the IHS GWAS, we created a weighted IHS polygenic risk score (PRSIHS) which was used (i) to conduct a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of associations between PRSIHS and ICD-9 phenotypes and (ii) to further test for associations with mortality and selected CVD outcomes using logistic and Cox regression and, as an instrumental variable, in Mendelian Randomization. RESULTS: The discovery and replication cohorts consisted of 142,404 (119,129 European American (EUR); 16,495 African American (AFR)), and 45,766 (37,646 EUR; 5,366 AFR) participants, respectively. The mean age was 65.8 years (SD = 11.2) and 92.7% were male. Overall, 4.2% exhibited ideal CVH based on the clinical and behavioral factors. In the multi-population meta-analysis, variants at 17 loci were associated with IHS and each had known GWAS associations with multiple components of the IHS. PheWAS analysis in 456,026 participants showed that increased PRSIHS was associated with a lower odds ratio for many CVD outcomes and risk factors. Both IHS and PRSIHS measures of ideal CVH were associated with significantly less CVD outcomes and CVD mortality. CONCLUSION: A set of high interest genetic variants contribute to the presence of ideal CVH in a multi-ethnic cohort of US Veterans. Genetically influenced ideal CVH is associated with lower odds of CVD outcomes and mortality.

Degree of Adherence to Based Diet and Total and Cause-Specific Mortality: Prospective Cohort Study in the Million Veteran Program.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations between adherence to plant-based diets and mortality. DESIGN: prospective study. We calculated a plant-based diet index (PDI) by assigning positive scores to plant foods and reverse scores to animal foods. We also created a healthful PDI (hPDI) and an unhealthful PDI (uPDI) by further separate the healthy plant foods from less-healthy plant foods. SETTING: the VA Million Veteran Program. PARTICIPANTS: 315,919 men and women aged 19 to 104 years who completed a food frequency questionnaire at the baseline. RESULTS: We documented 31,136 deaths during the follow-up. A higher PDI was significantly associated with lower total mortality [hazard ratio (HR) comparing extreme deciles =0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71 to 0.79, Ptrend <0.001]. We observed an inverse association between hPDI and total mortality (HR comparing extreme deciles =0.64, 95% CI: 0.61 to 0.68, Ptrend <0.001), whereas uPDI was positively associated with total mortality (HR comparing extreme deciles =1.41, 95% CI: 1.33 to 1.49, Ptrend <0.001). Similar significant associations of PDI, hPDI, and uPDI were also observed for CVD and cancer mortality. The associations between the plant-based diet indices and total mortality were consistent among African and European American participants, and participants free from CVD and cancer and those who were diagnosed with major chronic disease at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: A greater adherence to a plant-based diet was associated with substantially lower total mortality in this large population of veterans. These findings support recommending plant-rich dietary patterns for the prevention of major chronic diseases.

Dietary Sodium and Potassium Intake and Risk of Non-Fatal Cardiovascular Diseases: The Million Veteran Program.

Objective: To examine the association between intakes of sodium and potassium and the ratio of sodium to potassium and incident myocardial infarction and stroke. Design, Setting and Participants: Prospective cohort study of 180,156 Veterans aged 19 to 107 years with plausible dietary intake measured by food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) who were free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer at baseline in the VA Million Veteran Program (MVP). Main outcome measures: CVD defined as non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) or acute ischemic stroke (AIS) ascertained using high-throughput phenotyping algorithms applied to electronic health records. Results: During up to 8 years of follow-up, we documented 4090 CVD cases (2499 MI and 1712 AIS). After adjustment for confounding factors, a higher sodium intake was associated with a higher risk of CVD, whereas potassium intake was inversely associated with the risk of CVD [hazard ratio (HR) comparing extreme quintiles, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09 (95% CI: 0.99−1.21, p trend = 0.01) for sodium and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79−0.96, p trend = 0.005) for potassium]. In addition, the ratio of sodium to potassium (Na/K ratio) was positively associated with the risk of CVD (HR comparing extreme quintiles = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.14−1.39, p trend < 0.0001). The associations of Na/K ratio were consistent for two subtypes of CVD; one standard deviation increment in the ratio was associated with HRs (95% CI) of 1.12 (1.06−1.19) for MI and 1.11 (1.03−1.19) for AIS. In secondary analyses, the observed associations were consistent across race and status for diabetes, hypertension, and high cholesterol at baseline. Associations appeared to be more pronounced among participants with poor dietary quality. Conclusions: A high sodium intake and a low potassium intake were associated with a higher risk of CVD in this large population of US veterans.

Coronary Artery Disease Risk of Familial Hypercholesterolemia Genetic Variants Independent of Clinically Observed Longitudinal Cholesterol Exposure.

BACKGROUND: Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) genetic variants confer risk for coronary artery disease independent of LDL-C (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol) when considering a single measurement. In real clinical settings, longitudinal LDL-C data are often available through the electronic health record. It is unknown whether genetic testing for FH variants provides additional risk-stratifying information once longitudinal LDL-C is considered. METHODS: We used the extensive electronic health record data available through the Million Veteran Program to conduct a nested case-control study. The primary outcome was coronary artery disease, derived from electronic health record codes for acute myocardial infarction and coronary revascularization. Incidence density sampling was used to match case/control exposure windows, defined by the date of the first LDL-C measurement to the date of the first coronary artery disease code of the index case. Adjustments for the first, maximum, or mean LDL-C were analyzed. FH variants in LDLR, APOB, and PCSK9 (Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9) were assessed by custom genotype array. RESULTS: In a cohort of 23 091 predominantly prevalent cases at enrollment and 230 910 matched controls, FH variant carriers had an increased risk for coronary artery disease (odds ratio [OR], 1.53 [95% CI, 1.24-1.89]). Adjusting for mean LDL-C led to the greatest attenuation of the risk estimate, but significant risk remained (odds ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.08-1.64]). The degree of attenuation was not affected by the number and the spread of LDL-C measures available. CONCLUSIONS: The risk associated with carrying an FH variant cannot be fully captured by the LDL-C data available in the electronic health record, even when considering multiple LDL-C measurements spanning more than a decade.

Prediction of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality After Myocardial Infarction in US Veterans.

Risk prediction models for cardiovascular disease (CVD) death developed from patients without vascular disease may not be suitable for myocardial infarction (MI) survivors. Prediction of mortality risk after MI may help to guide secondary prevention. Using national electronic record data from the Veterans Health Administration 2002 to 2012, we developed risk prediction models for CVD death and all-cause death based on 5-year follow-up data of 100,601 survivors of MI using Cox proportional hazards models. Model performance was evaluated using a cross-validation approach. During follow-up, there were 31,622 deaths and 12,901 CVD deaths. In men, older age, current smoking, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, and lower body mass index were associated with greater risk of death from CVD or all-causes, and statin treatment, hypertension medication, estimated glomerular filtration rate level, and high body mass index were significantly associated with reduced risk of fatal outcomes. Similar associations and slightly different predictors were observed in women. The estimated Harrell's C-statistics of the final model versus the cross-validation estimates were 0.77 versus 0.77 in men and 0.81 versus 0.77 in women for CVD death. Similarly, the C-statistics were 0.75 versus 0.75 in men, 0.78 versus 0.75 in women for all-cause mortality. The predicted risk of death was well calibrated compared with the observed risk. In conclusion, we developed and internally validated risk prediction models of 5-year risk for CVD and all-cause death for outpatient survivors of MI. Traditional risk factors, co-morbidities, and lack of blood pressure or lipid treatment were all associated with greater risk of CVD and all-cause mortality.

Frailty and cardiovascular mortality in more than 3 million US Veterans.

AIMS: Frailty is associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular (CV) events. Limited data exist from the modern era of CV prevention on the relationship between frailty and CV mortality. We hypothesized that frailty is associated with an increased risk of CV mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: All US Veterans aged ≥65 years who were regular users of Veteran Affairs care from 2002 to 2017 were included. Frailty was defined using a 31-item previously validated frailty index, ranging from 0 to 1. The primary outcome was CV mortality with secondary analyses examining the relationship between frailty and CV events (myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization). Survival analysis models were adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, geographic region, smoking, hyperlipidaemia, statin use, and blood pressure medication use. There were 3 068 439 US Veterans included in the analysis. Mean age was 74.1 ± 5.8 years in 2002, 76.0 ± 8.3 years in 2014, 98% male, and 87.5% White. In 2002, the median (interquartile range) frailty score was 0.16 (0.10-0.23). This increased and stabilized to 0.19 (0.10-0.32) for 2006-14. The presence of frailty was associated with an increased risk of CV mortality at every stage of frailty. Frailty was associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction and stroke, but not revascularization. CONCLUSION: In this population, both the presence and severity of frailty are tightly correlated with CV death, independent of underlying CV disease. This study is the largest and most contemporary evaluation of the relationship between frailty and CV mortality to date. Further work is needed to understand how this risk can be diminished. KEY QUESTION: Can an electronic frailty index identify adults aged 65 and older who are at risk of CV mortality and major CV events? KEY FINDING: Among 3 068 439 US Veterans aged 65 and older, frailty was associated with an increased risk of CV mortality at every level of frailty. Frailty was also associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction and stroke, but not revascularization. TAKE HOME MESSAGE: Both the presence and severity of frailty are associated with CV mortality and major CV events, independent of underlying CV disease.

Low Blood Pressure, Comorbidities, and Ischemic Stroke Mortality in US Veterans.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Low blood pressure (BP) is associated with higher stroke mortality, although the factors underlying this association have not been fully explored. We investigated prestroke BP and long-term mortality after ischemic stroke in a national sample of US veterans. METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort study design of veterans hospitalized between 2002 and 2007 with a first ischemic stroke and with ≥1 outpatient BP measurements 1 to 18 months before admission, we defined 6 categories each of average prestroke systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP, and 7 categories of pulse pressure. Patients were followed-up to 12 years for primary outcomes of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. We used Cox models to relate prestroke BP indices to mortality and stratified analyses by the presence of preexisting comorbidities (smoking, myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation/flutter, cancer, and dementia), race and ethnicity. RESULTS: Of 29 690 eligible veterans with stroke (mean±SD age 67±12 years, 98% men, 67% White), 2989 (10%) had average prestroke SBP<120 mm Hg. During a follow-up of 4.1±3.3 years, patients with SBP<120 mm Hg experienced 61% all-cause and 27% cardiovascular mortality. In multivariable analyses, patients with the lowest SBP, lowest diastolic BP, and highest pulse pressure had the highest mortality risk: SBP<120 versus 130 to 139 mm Hg (hazard ratio=1.26 [95% CI, 1.19-1.34]); diastolic BP <60 versus 70 to 79 mm Hg (hazard ratio=1.35 [95% CI, 1.23-1.49]); and pulse pressure ≥90 versus 60 to 69 mm Hg (hazard ratio=1.24 [95% CI, 1.15-1.35]). Patients with average SBP<120 mm Hg and at least one comorbidity (smoking, heart disease, cancer, or dementia) had the highest mortality risk (hazard ratio=1.45 [95% CI, 1.37-1.53]). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with normotension, low prestroke BP was associated with mortality after stroke, particularly among patients with at least one comorbidity.

Risk factors and prediction models for incident heart failure with reduced and preserved ejection fraction.

AIMS: This study aims to develop the first race-specific and sex-specific risk prediction models for heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We created a cohort of 1.8 million individuals who had an outpatient clinic visit between 2002 and 2007 within the Veterans Affairs (VA) Healthcare System and obtained information on HFpEF, HFrEF, and several risk factors from electronic health records (EHR). Variables were selected for the risk prediction models in a 'derivation cohort' that consisted of individuals with baseline date in 2002, 2003, or 2004 using a forward stepwise selection based on a change in C-index threshold. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in the remaining participants (internal 'validation cohort'). A total of 66 831 individuals developed HFpEF, and 92 233 developed HFrEF (52 679 and 71 463 in the derivation cohort) over a median of 11.1 years of follow-up. The HFpEF risk prediction model included age, diabetes, BMI, COPD, previous MI, antihypertensive treatment, SBP, smoking status, atrial fibrillation, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), while the HFrEF model additionally included previous CAD. For the HFpEF model, C-indices were 0.74 (SE = 0.002) for white men, 0.76 (0.005) for black men, 0.79 (0.015) for white women, and 0.77 (0.026) for black women, compared with 0.72 (0.002), 0.72 (0.004), 0.77 (0.017), and 0.75 (0.028), respectively, for the HFrEF model. These risk prediction models were generally well calibrated in each race-specific and sex-specific stratum of the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Our race-specific and sex-specific risk prediction models, which used easily obtainable clinical variables, can be a useful tool to implement preventive strategies or subtype-specific prevention trials in the nine million users of the VA healthcare system and the general population after external validation.

Demonstration of neutron radiation-induced nucleation of supercooled water.

We present here direct evidence for neutrons causing nucleation of supercooled water. Highly purified water (20 nm filtration) is cooled to well below freezing (as low as -20 °C) with a radioactive calibration source of neutrons/gamma-rays either present or removed during each of many control cooling runs for the same volume of water. When it is primarily neutrons irradiating the sample bulk, the non-equilibrium freezing point (also known as the "supercooling point") is, on average, +0.7 °C warmer than the control equivalent, with a statistical significance of greater than 5 Sigma, with systematic uncertainty included. This effect is not observed with water in the presence of gamma-rays instead of neutrons. While these neutrons should have theoretically had sufficient energy to mount the energy barrier, corroborating our results, their raising of supercooling temperature has never been reported experimentally to the best of our knowledge. The potential to use deeply supercooled solutions, not only water, as metastable detectors for radiation and perhaps dark matter or neutrino physics presents now a new avenue for exploration.

Multi-Trait Genome-Wide Association Study of Atherosclerosis Detects Novel Pleiotropic Loci.

Although affecting different arterial territories, the related atherosclerotic vascular diseases coronary artery disease (CAD) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) share similar risk factors and have shared pathobiology. To identify novel pleiotropic loci associated with atherosclerosis, we performed a joint analysis of their shared genetic architecture, along with that of common risk factors. Using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies of nine known atherosclerotic (CAD, PAD) and atherosclerosis risk factors (body mass index, smoking initiation, type 2 diabetes, low density lipoprotein, high density lipoprotein, total cholesterol, and triglycerides), we perform 15 separate multi-trait genetic association scans which resulted in 25 novel pleiotropic loci not yet reported as genome-wide significant for their respective traits. Colocalization with single-tissue eQTLs identified candidate causal genes at 14 of the detected signals. Notably, the signal between PAD and LDL-C at the PCSK6 locus affects PCSK6 splicing in human liver tissue and induced pluripotent derived hepatocyte-like cells. These results show that joint analysis of related atherosclerotic disease traits and their risk factors allowed identification of unified biology that may offer the opportunity for therapeutic manipulation. The signal at PCSK6 represent possible shared causal biology where existing inhibitors may be able to be leveraged for novel therapies.

PCSK9 loss of function is protective against extra-coronary atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in a large multi-ethnic cohort.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 protects against coronary artery disease (CAD) and ischemic stroke (IS). The impact on other diseases remains less well characterized. METHODS: We created a genetic risk score (GRS) for PCSK9 using four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at or near the PCSK9 locus known to impact lower LDL-Cholesterol (LDL-C): rs11583680, rs11591147, rs2479409, and rs11206510. We then used our GRS to calculate weighted odds ratios reflecting the impact of a genetically determined 10 mg/dL decrease in LDL-C on several pre-specified phenotypes including CAD, IS, peripheral artery disease (PAD), abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), type 2 diabetes, dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and cancer. Finally, we used our weighted GRS to perform a phenome-wide association study. RESULTS: Genetic and electronic health record data that passed quality control was available in 312,097 individuals, (227,490 White participants, 58,907 Black participants, and 25,700 Hispanic participants). PCSK9 mediated reduction in LDL-C was associated with a reduced risk of CAD and AAA in trans-ethnic meta-analysis (CAD OR 0.83 [95% CI 0.80-0.87], p = 6.0 x 10-21; AAA OR 0.76 [95% CI 0.68-0.86], p = 2.9 x 10-06). Significant protective effects were noted for PAD in White individuals (OR 0.83 [95% CI 0.71-0.97], p = 2.3 x 10-04) but not in other genetic ancestries. Genetically reduced PCSK9 function associated with a reduced risk of dementia in trans-ethnic meta-analysis (OR 0.86 [95% CI 0.78-0.93], p = 5.0 x 10-04). CONCLUSIONS: Genetically reduced PCSK9 function results in a reduction in risk of several important extra-coronary atherosclerotic phenotypes in addition to known effects on CAD and IS, including PAD and AAA. We also highlight a novel reduction in risk of dementia, supporting a well-recognized vascular component to cognitive impairment and an opportunity for therapeutic repositioning.

Inherited myeloproliferative neoplasm risk affects haematopoietic stem cells.

Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are blood cancers that are characterized by the excessive production of mature myeloid cells and arise from the acquisition of somatic driver mutations in haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). Epidemiological studies indicate a substantial heritable component of MPNs that is among the highest known for cancers1. However, only a limited number of genetic risk loci have been identified, and the underlying biological mechanisms that lead to the acquisition of MPNs remain unclear. Here, by conducting a large-scale genome-wide association study (3,797 cases and 1,152,977 controls), we identify 17 MPN risk loci (P < 5.0 × 10-8), 7 of which have not been previously reported. We find that there is a shared genetic architecture between MPN risk and several haematopoietic traits from distinct lineages; that there is an enrichment for MPN risk variants within accessible chromatin of HSCs; and that increased MPN risk is associated with longer telomere length in leukocytes and other clonal haematopoietic states-collectively suggesting that MPN risk is associated with the function and self-renewal of HSCs. We use gene mapping to identify modulators of HSC biology linked to MPN risk, and show through targeted variant-to-function assays that CHEK2 and GFI1B have roles in altering the function of HSCs to confer disease risk. Overall, our results reveal a previously unappreciated mechanism for inherited MPN risk through the modulation of HSC function.

Long-term metformin treatment and risk of peripheral neuropathy in older Veterans.

AIM: Our objective was to assess whether increased duration of metformin therapy is associated with incident peripheral neuropathy (PN) in older Veterans with diabetes. METHODS: Using national Veterans Affairs registry data from 2002 to 2015, we examined Veterans (50 + years) with diabetes. Long-term metformin therapy was defined as prescription ≥ 500 mg/day, filled for ≥ 6 consecutive months. Metformin therapy duration was examined both as continuous and categorical measures. Incident PN was defined by medical chart review. We estimated unadjusted and adjusted (variables selecteda priori)odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using logistic regression. RESULTS: The study included n = 210,004 individuals (mean ± SD: age: 66.2 ± 8.4 yrs, 96% male) prescribed metformin for 47.0 ± 34.0 months. Nineteen percent developed PN during follow-up. After adjusting for age, body mass index, duration of time receiving health care within the VA, smoking status, alcohol abuse, and vitamin B12 testing and treatment, the number of months of metformin treatment was associated with elevated odds for incident PN (aOR (metformin treatment - continuous) = 1.009 (95% CI = 1.009, 1.010); aOR (metformin treatment - categorical (ref: 6-<18 months): 18-<44.1 months = 1.57 (1.51-1.63), 44.1-<61 months = 2.05 (1.97-2.14), 61 + months = 2.69 (2.58-2.79), all p-values < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that Veterans treated for at least 18 months with metformin are approximately 2-3 times more likely to develop PN than those treated at least six, but<18 months. Future studies are needed to determine whether the association we found may be due to a decline in vitamin B12 status following metformin initiation.