Developing a nomogram for forecasting the 28-day mortality rate of individuals with bleeding esophageal varices using model for end-stage liver disease scores.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to create a nomogram using the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) that can better predict the risk of 28-day mortality in patients with bleeding esophageal varices. METHODS: Data on patients with bleeding esophageal varices were retrospectively collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database. Variables were selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression model and were used to construct a prognostic nomogram. The nomogram was evaluated against the MELD model using various methods, including receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration plotting, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 280 patients were included in the study. The patient's use of vasopressin and norepinephrine, respiratory rate, temperature, mean corpuscular volume, and MELD score were included in the nomogram. The area under the ROC curve, NRI, IDI, and DCA of the nomogram indicated that it performs better than the MELD alone. CONCLUSION: A nomogram was created that outperformed the MELD score in forecasting the risk of 28-day mortality in individuals with bleeding esophageal varices.

IL-1 Signal Inhibition in Alcohol-Related Hepatitis: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial of Canakinumab.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Short-term mortality in alcohol-related hepatitis (AH) is high, and no current therapy results in durable benefit. A role for interleukin (IL)-1ß has been demonstrated in the pathogenesis of alcohol-induced steatohepatitis. This study explored the safety and efficacy of canakinumab (CAN), a monoclonal antibody targeting IL-1ß, in the treatment of patients with AH. METHODS: Participants with biopsy-confirmed AH and discriminant function ≥32 but Model for End-Stage Liver Disease ≤27 were randomly allocated 1:1 to receive either CAN 3 mg/kg or placebo (PBO). Liver biopsies were taken before and 28 days after treatment. The primary endpoint was the overall histological improvement in inflammation analyzed by the modified intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: Fifty-seven participants were randomized: 29 to CAN and 28 to PBO. Two participants had histology that did not corroborate the clinical diagnosis. Of the remaining 55 participants, paired histology data were evaluable from 48 participants. In CAN-treated participants, 14 (58%) of 24 demonstrated histological improvement compared with 10 (42%) of 24 in the PBO group (P = .25). There was no improvement in prognostic scores of liver function. Four (7%) of the 55 participants died within 90 days, 2 in each group. The number of serious adverse events was similar between CAN vs PBO. In post hoc exploratory analyses after adjustment for baseline prognostic factors, CAN therapy was associated with overall histological improvement (P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: CAN therapy in severe AH participants with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease ≤27 did not alter biochemical or clinical outcomes compared with PBO. Nonsignificant histological improvements did not translate into clinical benefit. EudraCT, Number: 2017-003724-79; ClinicalTrials.gov, Number: NCT03775109.

Application of model for end-stage liver disease as disease classification in cardiac valve surgery: a retrospective study based on the INSPIRE database.

Background: Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) is an effective predictive marker for renal, hepatic, and cardiac dysfunctions. In this study, we explore the correlation between MELD scores and the outcomes of patients undergoing cardiac valve surgery. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from patients who underwent cardiac valve surgery, encompassing procedures on the aortic valve, mitral valve, and tricuspid valve, using the Informative Surgical Patient dataset for Innovative Research Environment (INSPIRE) database, we conducted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses on the study participants and chose MELD as the primary scoring tool for our study due to its optimal area under the curve (AUC), patients were stratified into high (MELD ≥18) and low (MELD <18) groups based on the determined cutoff value. The perioperative clinical data of the two groups were compared. Results: The analysis revealed 751 patients in the low MELD group (75.5%) and 244 patients (24.5%) in the high MELD group. Patients in the high MELD group exhibited a lower body mass index (BMI) compared to those in the low MELD group. In comparison to the low MELD group, the high MELD group exhibited a higher rate of emergency surgery (10.66% vs. 5.99%, P=0.01), along with prolonged anesthesia time, surgery time, and cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time. Regarding clinical prognosis, the high MELD group demonstrated a higher 28-day mortality rate (10.66% vs. 0.8%, P<0.001), as also observed in the analysis of three valve subgroups. Additionally, the high MELD group experienced longer hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) stay, and a higher proportion of patients requiring mechanical circulatory support, including intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) assist (14.75% vs. 3.86%, P<0.001), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) assist (7.38% vs. 0.8%, P<0.001), and continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) (27.87% vs. 1.46%, P<0.001) post-surgery. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves illustrated a significantly lower mortality rate in the low MELD group compared to the high MELD group, with highly significant statistical differences (P<0.001). Conclusions: The MELD score demonstrates a robust predictive value for clinical outcomes following cardiac valve surgery, underscoring its utility as a viable metric for disease stratification research.

Comprehensive Treatment of Total Arch Replacement in a Patient With Liver Cirrhosis: A Case Report.

A 78-year-old woman with liver cirrhosis due to chronic hepatitis C visited our department for treatment of a thoracic aortic aneurysm. Her Child-Pugh classification was class A, and her model for end-stage liver (MELD) disease score was 8. As she also had thrombocytopenia associated with splenomegaly and esophageal varices, endoscopic injection sclerotherapy and partial splenic embolization were performed before total arch replacement surgery for treating esophageal varices to reduce the bleeding risk during transesophageal echocardiography and for thrombocytopenia, respectively. After endoscopic injection sclerotherapy and partial splenic embolization, the platelet count increased; hence, total arch replacement surgery was performed. By combining partial splenic embolization and endoscopic injection sclerotherapy, we were able to safely perform transesophageal echocardiography and total arch replacement surgery in the perioperative period.

Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C Infection and Decompensated Cirrhosis.

Patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and decompensated cirrhosis are an important population for antiviral therapy yet under-represented in clinical trials. HCV direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies, unlike interferon-containing regimens, can be safely utilized in decompensated patients. Per guidelines from the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD), therapy of choice in HCV and decompensated cirrhosis is sofosbuvir, an HCV polymerase inhibitor, combined with a replication complex inhibitor (NS5A inhibitor) with or without ribavirin. Combination therapy with a HCV protease inhibitor and an NS5A inhibitor is effective in this population but is specifically not recommended in AASLD guidelines due to safety concerns. Important risk factors for further decompensation during DAA therapy are serum albumin < 3.5 g/dL, MELD (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease) score > 14, or HCV genotype 3 infection. Although sustained virologic response (SVR) is achieved less often in patients with decompensated vs compensated cirrhosis, in clinical studies response rates are > 80%. Both Child-Turcotte-Pugh Class at baseline and viral genotype can affect these response rates. Achieving SVR lowers risk of mortality, but to a lesser extent than in individuals with compensated cirrhosis. Likewise, treating patients for HCV infection along with successful treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma improves risks of both liver-related and overall mortality. In fewer than one third of cases, treating transplant-eligible, HCV-infected patients pre-transplant enables their delisting from transplant wait lists.

Recovery of cardiac electrophysiological alterations by heart rate complexity based on multiscale entropy following liver transplantation.

Autonomic nervous dysfunction is a known cardiac sequalae in patients with end-stage liver disease and is associated with a poor prognosis. Heart rate analysis using nonlinear models such as multiscale entropy (MSE) or complexity may identify marked changes in these patients where conventional heart rate variability (HRV) measurements do not. To investigate the application of heart rate complexity (HRC) based on MSE in liver transplantation settings. Thirty adult recipients of elective living donor liver transplantation were enrolled. HRV parameters using conventional HRV analysis and HRC analysis were obtained at the following time points: (1) 1 day before surgery, (2) postoperative day (POD) 7, (3) POD 14, (4) POD 90, and (5) POD 180. Preoperatively, patients with MELD score ≥ 25 had significantly lower HRC compared to patients with lower MELD scores. This difference in HRC disappeared by POD 7 following liver transplantation and subsequent analyses at POD 90 and 180 continued to show no significant difference. Our results indicated a significant negative correlation between HRC based on MSE analysis and liver disease severity preoperatively, which may be more sensitive than conventional linear HRV analysis. HRC in patients with MELD score ≧ 25 improved over time and became comparable to those with MELD < 25 as early as in 7 days.

MELD 3.0 in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease.

The MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) 3.0 score was developed to replace the MELD-Na score that is currently used to prioritize liver allocation for cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation in the United States. The MELD 3.0 calculator includes new inputs from patient sex and serum albumin levels and has new weights for serum sodium, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine levels. It is expected that use of MELD 3.0 scores will reduce overall waitlist mortality modestly and improve access for female liver transplant candidates. The utility of MELD 3.0 and PELDcre (pediatric end-stage liver disease, creatinine) scores for risk stratification in cirrhotic patients undergoing major abdominal surgery, placement of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, and other interventions requires further study. This article reviews the background of the MELD score and the rationale to create MELD 3.0 as well as potential implications of using this newer risk stratification tool in clinical practice.

Prognostic and diagnostic scoring models in acute alcohol-associated hepatitis: A review comparing the performance of different scoring systems.

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AAH) is a severe form of liver disease caused by alcohol consumption. In the absence of confounding factors, clinical features and laboratory markers are sufficient to diagnose AAH, rule out alternative causes of liver injury and assess disease severity. Due to the elevated mortality of AAH, assessing the prognosis is a radical step in management. The Maddrey discriminant function (MDF) is the first established clinical prognostic score for AAH and was commonly used in the earliest AAH clinical trials. A MDF > 32 indicates a poor prognosis and a potential benefit of initiating corticosteroids. The model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score has been studied for AAH prognostication and new evidence suggests MELD may predict mortality more accurately than MDF. The Lille score is usually combined to MDF or MELD score after corticosteroid initiation and offers the advantage of assessing response to treatment a 4-7 d into the course. Other commonly used scores include the Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score and the Age Bilirubin international normalized ratio Creatinine model. Clinical AAH correlate adequately with histologic severity scores and leave little indication for liver biopsy in assessing AAH prognosis. AAH presenting as acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is so far prognosticated with ACLF-specific scoring systems. New artificial intelligence-generated prognostic models have emerged and are being studied for use in AAH. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is one possible complication of AAH and is significantly associated with increased AAH mortality. Predicting AKI and alcohol relapse are important steps in the management of AAH. The aim of this review is to discuss the performance and limitations of different scoring models for AAH mortality, emphasize the most useful tools in prognostication and review predictors of recurrence.

National Liver Allocation Policy-Consensus Document by the Liver Transplantation Society of India for a Nationally Uniform System of Allocation of Deceased Donor Liver Grafts.

Background: Deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) is increasing in India and now constitutes nearly one-third of all liver transplantation procedures performed in the country. There is currently no uniform national system of allocation of deceased donor livers. Methods: A national task force consisting of 19 clinicians involved in liver transplantation from across the country was constituted under the aegis of the Liver Transplantation Society of India to develop a consensus document addressing the above issues using a modified Delphi process of consensus development. Results: The National Liver Allocation Policy consensus document includes 46 statements covering all aspects of DDLT, including minimum listing criteria, listing for acute liver failure, DDLT wait-list management, system of prioritisation based on clinical urgency for adults and children, guidelines for allocation of paediatric organs and allocation priorities for liver grafts recovered from public sector hospitals. Conclusion: This document is the first step in the setting up of a nationally consistent policy of deceased donor liver allocation.

Recompensation in Cirrhosis: Current Evidence and Future Directions.

The natural history of cirrhosis has usually been conceptualized in the context of progression from compensated cirrhosis to subsequent stages of decompensation. While this unidirectional concept is the most common pathophysiological trajectory, there has been an emerging understanding of a subgroup of patients which undergo recompensation. While literature mostly based on transplant waitlist registries have indicated towards such a population who experience disease regression, the overall literature about this entity remains inexplicit. An effort to generate consensus on defining recompensation has been attempted which comes with its own nuances and limitations. We summarize the available literature on this emerging yet controversial concept of recompensation in cirrhosis and delve into future implications and impact on real-life practice.

Improving Transplant-free Survival With Low-volume Plasma Exchange to Treat Children With Rodenticide Induced Hepatotoxicity.

Background: In a prior report, no patient with rodenticidal hepatotoxicity who met Kochi criteria (MELD score ≥36 or baseline INR ≥6 with hepatic encephalopathy) (PMID: 26310868) for urgent liver transplantation survived with medical management alone. Plasma exchange (PLEX) may improve survival in these patients. Objectives: We describe our experience with low-volume PLEX (PLEX-LV) in treating rodenticide ingestion induced hepatotoxicity in children. Methods: From prospectively collected database of rodenticidal hepatotoxicity patients managed as in-patient with department of Hepatology from December 2017 to August 2021, we retrospectively studied outcomes in children (≤18 years). Hepatotoxicity was categorized as acute liver injury (ALI, coagulopathy alone) or acute liver failure (ALF, coagulopathy and encephalopathy). Kochi criteria was used to assess need for urgent liver transplantation. The primary study outcome was one-month survival. Results: Of the 110 rodenticidal hepatotoxicity patients, 32 children (females: 56%; age: 16 [4.7-18] years; median, range) constituted the study patients. The study patients presented 4 (1-8) days after poison consumption (impulsive suicidal intent:31, accidental:1). Twenty children (62%) had ALI [MELD: 18 (8-36)] and 12 (38%) had ALF [MELD: 37 (24-45)].All children received standard medical care, including N-acetyl cysteine; ALF patients also received anti-cerebral edema measures. None of the patient families opted for liver transplantation. Seventeen children (ALI: 6, ALF: 11) were treated with PLEX-LV (3 [1-5] sessions, volume of plasma exchanged per session: 26 [13-38] ml/kg body weight) and peri-procedure low dose prednisolone.At 1 month, 28 of the 32 children (87.5%) were alive (4 ALF patients died). Of 10 children who met Kochi listing criteria for urgent liver transplantation, two children were ineligible for PLEX-LV (due to hemodynamic instability) and of the remaining 8 children treated by PLEX-LV, 6 (75%) survived. Conclusions: PLEX-LV shows promise as an effective non-liver transplant treatment in children with rodenticidal hepatotoxicity.

Palliative Care for Patients with End-Stage Liver Disease.

End-stage liver disease (ESLD) is the culmination of progression of chronic liver disease to cirrhosis, decompensation, and chronic liver failure, featuring portal hypertension or hepatocellular failure-related complications. Liver transplantation offers improved long-term survival for these patients but is negatively influenced by donor availability, financial constraints in developing countries, active substance abuse, progression of disease or malignancy on wait-list, sepsis and extrahepatic organ involvement. In this context, palliative care (PC), an interdisciplinary medical practice that aim to prevent and relieve suffering, offers best possible quality of life and is not limited to end-of-life care. It also encompasses achievable goals such as symptom control and aggressive disease-modifying treatments or interventions that beneficially alter the natural course of the disease to offer curative intend. In this narrative review, we discuss the prognostic factors that define disease course in ESLD, various indications and challenges in PC for advanced cirrhosis and management options for major symptom burden in patients with ESLD based on evidence-based best practice.

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase IIa trial of efruxifermin for patients with compensated NASH cirrhosis.

Background & Aims: Efruxifermin has shown clinical efficacy in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and F1-F3 fibrosis. The primary objective of the BALANCED Cohort C was to assess the safety and tolerability of efruxifermin in patients with compensated NASH cirrhosis. Methods: Patients with NASH and stage 4 fibrosis (n = 30) were randomized 2:1 to receive efruxifermin 50 mg (n = 20) or placebo (n = 10) once-weekly for 16 weeks. The primary endpoint was safety and tolerability of efruxifermin. Secondary and exploratory endpoints included evaluation of non-invasive markers of liver injury and fibrosis, glucose and lipid metabolism, and changes in histology in a subset of patients who consented to end-of-study liver biopsy. Results: Efruxifermin was safe and well-tolerated; most adverse events (AEs) were grade 1 (n = 7, 23.3%) or grade 2 (n = 19, 63.3%). The most frequent AEs were gastrointestinal, including transient, mild to moderate diarrhea, and/or nausea. Significant improvements were noted in key markers of liver injury (alanine aminotransferase) and glucose and lipid metabolism. Sixteen-week treatment with efruxifermin was associated with significant reductions in non-invasive markers of fibrosis including Pro-C3 (least squares mean change from baseline [LSMCFB] -9 µg/L efruxifermin vs. -3.4 µg/L placebo; p = 0.0130) and ELF score (-0.4 efruxifermin vs. +0.4 placebo; p = 0.0036), with a trend towards reduced liver stiffness (LSMCFB -5.7 kPa efruxifermin vs. -1.1 kPa placebo; n.s.). Of 12 efruxifermin-treated patients with liver biopsy after 16 weeks, 4 (33%) achieved fibrosis improvement of at least one stage without worsening of NASH, while an additional 3 (25%) achieved resolution of NASH, compared to 0 of 5 placebo-treated patients. Conclusions: Efruxifermin appeared safe and well-tolerated with encouraging improvements in markers of liver injury, fibrosis, and glucose and lipid metabolism following 16 weeks of treatment, warranting confirmation in larger and longer term studies. Lay summary: Cirrhosis resulting from non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), the progressive form of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, represents a major unmet medical need. Currently there are no approved drugs for the treatment of NASH. This proof-of-concept randomized, double-blind clinical trial demonstrated the potential therapeutic benefit of efruxifermin treatment compared to placebo in patients with cirrhosis due to NASH. Clinical Trial Number: NCT03976401.

Sarcopenia in the Cirrhotic Patient: Current Knowledge and Future Directions.

Cirrhosis predisposes to abnormalities in energy, hormonal, and immunological homeostasis. Disturbances in these metabolic processes create susceptibility to sarcopenia or pathological muscle wasting. Sarcopenia is prevalent in cirrhosis and its presence portends significant adverse outcomes including the length of hospital stay, infectious complications, and mortality. This highlights the importance of identification of at-risk individuals with early nutritional, therapeutic and physical therapy intervention. This manuscript summarizes literature relevant to sarcopenia in cirrhosis, describes current knowledge, and elucidates possible future directions.

Emerging Biomarkers in Alcohol-associated Hepatitis.

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a clinical syndrome of jaundice, abdominal pain, and anorexia due to prolonged heavy alcohol intake. AH is associated with changes in gene expression, cytokines, immune response, and the gut microbiome. There are limited biomarkers to diagnose and prognosticate in AH, but several non-invasive biomarkers are emerging. In this review, clinical risk-stratifying algorithms, promising AH biomarkers like cytokeratin-18 fragments, genetic polymorphisms, and microRNAs will be reviewed.

A combination of liver stiffness and international normalized ratio is an ideal prognostic predictor of portosystemic shunt occlusion in patients with portal hypertension.

BACKGROUND: We previously reported liver stiffness (LS) as a prognostic predictor of portosystemic shunt (PSS) occlusion. This study aims to reinvestigate the predictive factors of the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score amelioration following balloon-occluded retrograde transvenous obliteration (BRTO) and to evaluate the postoperative prognoses of patients with portal hypertension by using newly identified factors. METHODS: Seventy-five patients who underwent BRTO between 2008 and 2021 were retrospectively enrolled. The MELD-Na scores were calculated preoperatively and one month postoperatively. We monitored long-term outcomes and analyzed postoperative survival. RESULTS: At one month postoperatively, the MELD-Na score decreased in 46 (61.3%) patients. Univariate analyses revealed a significant association of the score amelioration with nine factors, including lower LS levels and a higher international normalized ratio (INR). A multivariate logistic regression analysis with receiver operating characteristic curve analyses identified preoperative LS levels and INR as significant independent predictors of the postoperative MELD-Na score amelioration, with optimal cutoffs of 28.1 kPa and 1.06, respectively. The combination of LS < 28.1 kPa and INR ≥ 1.06 showed a sensitivity and specificity of 84.8% and 75.9% for the prediction of the score amelioration, respectively. For the propensity score model, we matched 24 patients with similar age, sex, MELD-Na score, and concomitant hepatocellular carcinoma. Kaplan-Meier analysis determined significantly higher cumulative survival rates in patients with LS < 28.1 kPa and INR ≥ 1.06 than in other populations. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of LS and INR can predict the MELD-Na score amelioration and prognosis improvement following PSS occlusion.

Intraoperative and postoperative impact of pretransplantation transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts in orthotopic liver transplantations: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objectives: Orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) remains the definitive treatment for patients afflicted with end-stage liver disease (ESLD). Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS) have been adapted as a bridge to transplantation, allowing partial normalization of portal pressure and associated symptom improvement. Conflicting evidence exists on TIPS' impact on operative procedures. This study aimed to analyze available evidence on patients who underwent OLT with prior TIPS compared to OLT alone with the intent to determine TIPS' impact on surgical outcomes. Material and Methods: Following PRISMA guidelines, a systematic review was conducted, identifying studies comparing TIPS + OLT versus OLT alone in patients with ESLD. Data were analyzed using Review Manager 5.3. Results: Thirteen studies were included. Operative time, packed red blood cells transfusions, intensive care unit admission, length of stay, dialysis, serum creatinine levels, ascites, vascular complications, bleeding revisions, reintervention, and other complications rates were similar between both groups. Fresh frozen plasma transfusion -2.88 units (-5.42, -0.35; p= 0.03), was lower in the TIPS + OLT group. Conclusion: Our study found TIPS can be safely employed without having detrimental impacts on OLT outcomes, furthermore, these findings also suggest TIPS does not increase bleeding or complications.

Inflammatory conditions play a role in recurrence of PSC after liver transplantation: An international multicentre study.

Background & Aims: Liver transplantation (LT) for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is complicated by recurrence of PSC (rPSC) in up to 25% of recipients. Recurrence has been shown to be detrimental for both graft and patient survival. For both PSC and rPSC, a medical cure is not available. To predict and ideally to prevent rPSC, it is imperative to find risk factors for rPSC that can be potentially modified. Therefore, we aimed to identify such factors for rPSC in a large international multicentre study including 6 centres in PSC-prevalent countries. Methods: In this international multicentre, retrospective cohort study, 531 patients who underwent transplantation for PSC were included. In 25% of cases (n = 131), rPSC was diagnosed after a median follow-up of 6.72 (3.29-10.11) years post-LT. Results: In the multivariable competing risk model with time-dependent covariates, we found that factors representing an increased inflammatory state increase the risk for rPSC. Recurrent cholangitis before LT as indication for LT (hazard ratio [HR] 3.6, 95% CI 2.5-5.2), increased activity of inflammatory bowel disease after LT (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.08-2.75), and multiple acute cellular rejections (HR: non-linear) were significantly and independently associated with an increased risk of rPSC. In contrast to the findings of previous studies, pretransplant colectomy was not found to be independently protective against the development of rPSC. Conclusions: An increased inflammatory state before and after LT may play a causal and modifiable role in the development of rPSC. Pretransplant colectomy did not reduce the risk of rPSC per se. Recurrent cholangitis as indication for LT was associated with an increased risk of rPSC. Impact and implications: Recurrence of PSC (rPSC) negatively affects survival after liver transplant (LT). Modifiable risk factors could guide clinical management and prevention of rPSC. We demonstrate that an increased inflammatory state both before and after LT increases the incidence of rPSC. As these are modifiable factors, they could serve as targets for future studies and therapies. We also added further evidence to the ongoing debate regarding preventive colectomy for rPSC by reporting that in our multicenter study, we could not find an independent association between colectomy and risk of rPSC.

Modelling polycystic liver disease progression using age-adjusted liver volumes and targeted mutational analysis.

Background & Aims: Polycystic liver disease (PLD) manifests as numerous fluid-filled cysts scattered throughout the liver parenchyma. PLD most commonly develops in females, either as an extra-renal manifestation of autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) or as isolated autosomal-dominant polycystic liver disease (ADPLD). Despite known genetic causes, clinical variability challenges patient counselling and timely risk prediction is hampered by a lack of genotype-phenotype correlations and prognostic imaging classifications. Methods: We performed targeted next-generation sequencing and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification to identify the underlying genetic defect in a cohort of 80 deeply characterized patients with PLD. Identified genotypes were correlated with total liver and kidney volume (assessed by CT or MRI), organ function, co-morbidities, and clinical endpoints. Results: Monoallelic diagnostic variants were identified in 60 (75%) patients, 38 (48%) of which pertained to ADPKD-gene variants (PKD1, PKD2, GANAB) and 22 (27%) to ADPLD-gene variants (PRKCSH, SEC63). Disease severity defined by age at waitlisting for liver transplantation and first PLD-related hospitalization was significantly more pronounced in mutation carriers compared to patients without genetic diagnoses. While current imaging classifications proved unable to differentiate between severe and moderate courses, grouping by estimated age-adjusted total liver volume progression yielded significant risk discrimination. Conclusion: This study underlines the predictive value of providing a molecular diagnosis for patients with PLD. In addition, we propose a novel risk-classification model based on age- and height-adjusted total liver volume that could improve individual prognostication and personalized clinical management. Lay summary: Polycystic liver disease (PLD) is a highly variable condition that can be asymptomatic or severe. However, it is currently difficult to predict clinical outcomes such as hospitalization, symptom burden, and need for transplantation in individual patients. In the current study, we aimed to investigate the clinical value of genetic confirmation and an age-adjusted total liver volume classification for individual disease prediction. While genetic confirmation generally pointed to more severe disease, estimated age-adjusted increases in liver volume could be useful for predicting clinical outcomes.

Alpha-1 antitrypsin Pi∗Z allele is an independent risk factor for liver transplantation and death in patients with advanced chronic liver disease.

Background & Aims: Alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT) deficiency causes/predisposes individuals to advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). However, the role of the SERPINA1 Pi∗Z allele in patients who have already progressed to ACLD is unclear. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the impact of the Pi∗Z allele on the risk of liver transplantation/liver-related death in patients with ACLD, while adjusting for the severity of liver disease at inclusion. Methods: A total of 1,118 patients with ACLD who underwent hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement and genotyping for the Pi∗Z/Pi∗S allele at the Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab were included in this retrospective analysis. The outcome of interest was liver transplantation/liver-related death, while non-liver-related death and removal/suppression of the primary etiological factor were considered as competing risks. Results: Viral hepatitis was the most common etiology (44%), followed by alcohol-related (31%) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (11%). Forty-two (4%) and forty-six (4%) patients harboured the Pi∗Z and Pi∗S variants, respectively. Pi∗Z carriers had more severe portal hypertension (HVPG: 19±6 vs.15±7 mmHg; p <0.001) and hepatic dysfunction (Child-Turcotte-Pugh: 7.1±1.9 vs. 6.5±1.9 points; p = 0.050) at inclusion, compared to non-carriers. Contrarily, the Pi∗S allele was unrelated to liver disease severity. In competing risk regression analysis, harbouring the Pi∗Z allele was significantly associated with an increased probability of liver transplantation/liver-related death, even after adjusting for liver disease severity at inclusion. The detrimental impact of the common Pi∗MZ genotype (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio: ≈1.56 vs. Pi∗MM) was confirmed in a fully adjusted subgroup analysis. In contrast, Pi∗S carriers had no increased risk of events. Conclusion: Genotyping for the Pi∗Z allele identifies patients with ACLD at increased risk of adverse liver-related outcomes, thereby improving prognostication. Therapies targeting the accumulation of abnormal AAT should be evaluated as disease-modifying treatments in Pi∗Z allele carriers with ACLD. Lay summary: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency is a genetic disease that affects the lung and the liver. Carrying two dysfunctional copies of the gene causes advanced liver disease. Harbouring one dysfunctional copy increases disease severity in patients with other liver illness. However, the significance of this genetic defect in patients who already suffer from advanced liver disease is unclear. Our study found that harbouring at least one dysfunctional copy of the alpha-1 antitrypsin gene increases the risk of requiring a liver transplantation or dying from a liver disease. This indicates the need for medical therapies aimed at treating the hepatic consequences of this genetic defect.