Trends and socioeconomic inequalities in the dental attendance of adult smokers in Scotland from 2009 to 2019, a repeated cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Smoking continues to be the single largest cause of preventable disease and death and a major contributor to health inequalities. Dental professionals are well placed to offer behavioural support in combination with pharmacotherapy to increase smoking cessation rates across the population. We aimed to assess the trends and socioeconomic inequalities in the dental attendance of adult smokers in Scotland from 2009 to 2019 and examine the potential population reach of dental settings for smoking cessation interventions. METHODS: A secondary analysis was conducted of combined Scottish Health Surveys (SHeS) from 2009/11, 2013/15 and 2017/19. 'Recent' dental attendance (within the past two years) was the focus and descriptive analysis examined attendance of self-reported smokers compared to non-smokers and stratified by the area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) and individual socioeconomic measures (income, education, and occupation). Generalised linear models were used to model recent attendance in non-smokers relative to smokers adjusted by the socioeconomic measures, for each of the survey cohorts separately. Absolute differences and risk ratios were calculated with 95% Confidence Intervals (CI). RESULTS: Recent dental attendance was generally high and increased in both smokers (70-76%) and non-smokers (84-87%) from 2009/11 to 2017/19 and increased across all SIMD groups. After adjustment for sociodemographic variables, the adjusted Risk Difference (aRD) for recent attendance between non-smokers and smokers was 8.9% (95% CI 4.6%, 13.2%) by 2017/19. Within smokers, recent attendance was 7-9% lower in those living in the most deprived areas compared to those living in the least deprived areas over the three surveys. CONCLUSIONS: SHeS data from 2009 to 2019 demonstrated that a high and increasing proportion of smokers in the population attend the dentist, albeit slightly less frequently than non-smokers. There were large inequalities in the dental attendance of smokers, to a lesser extent in non-smokers, and these persisted over time. Dental settings provide a good potential opportunity to deliver population-level smoking cessation interventions, but smokers in the most deprived groups and older age groups may be harder to reach. Consideration should be given to ensure that these groups are given appropriate proportionate support to take up preventive interventions.

Awareness of radiation risks by medical students & referrers requesting radiological examinations in the North of Scotland: an audit.

INTRODUCTION: Radiological imaging has played an important role in diagnostic medicine for over a century, though it is known to contribute to dermatological conditions, cataracts, and cancer. The associated risk of harm has led to the introduction of protective regulations around the world. Present-day NHS clinicians are increasingly requesting and relying on diagnostic imaging. Knowledge surrounding the radiation doses of common radiological investigations and the associated risks is imperative, and on a global level has been found to be inadequate. Consequently, there is a need for the formal inclusion of teaching within training programmes. AIMS/OBJECTIVES: This prospective audit aims to establish the knowledge of radiation doses and risks of common radiological investigations of both medical students and referrers within four NHS Health Boards based in the North of Scotland. It also seeks to establish prior teaching and the preference for further educational interventions. AUDIT STANDARD: Referrers should have adequate knowledge of radiation doses and the risks associated with common radiological investigations. AUDIT TARGET: The standard should be achieved by 90% of referrers. METHODS: A 19-question online survey was devised to include subjective and objective questions on ionising radiation awareness, education preference, and respondent demographics, based on RCR (Royal College of Radiologists) audit criteria and previous studies. Data collection was conducted between the 22/02/23 to the 22/03/2023 and the questionnaire was distributed to senior medical students and radiological referrers of different grades within NHS Grampian, NHS Highland, NHS Shetland, and NHS Orkney. A descriptive analysis of the data was undertaken using Microsoft Excel Version 16.71. RESULTS: Two hundred eight questionnaires were completed. 22.11% (n = 46) of the sample population had received no prior teaching on the topic of ionising radiation. Over half of the respondents (51.92%, n = 108) rated the importance of radiation risks as either important or extremely important, with 69.71% (n = 145) of participants rating their perceived knowledge as limited or average. Most correctly identified that a CT scan (n = 203), PET-CT scan (n = 199) and a chest x-ray (n = 196) exposed patients to ionising radiation. A small proportion of the participants incorrectly thought that an MRI scan (n = 21) and an ultrasound scan (n = 2) involved ionising radiation. The results obtained failed to meet the RCR audit target, which states that 90% of doctors should be aware of common radiological doses. It was observed that only 17.79% (n = 37) of survey respondents scored over 50% in the knowledge assessment, with the median knowledge score of the whole cohort being 2.5 out of 9 (27.78%). Respondents who had prior teaching on the topic performed better those who had no prior teaching, with average scores of 3.19 (35.44%) and 2.04 (22.67%) respectively. Senior clinicians performed better when compared to junior clinicians and medical students. CONCLUSION & FUTURE RECOMMENDATIONS: This audit found that the knowledge of radiation risks within the North of Scotland in the selected sample population was insufficient across all levels of the clinical team. Further, continuous education around the topic and future audit opportunities may help to optimise knowledge and training.

Population-based cancer incidence and mortality rates and ratios among adults with intellectual disabilities in Scotland: a retrospective cohort study with record linkage.

: Objective : To provide contemporary data on cancer mortality rates within the context of incidence in the population with intellectual disabilities. : Methods : Scotland's 2011 Census was used to identify adults with intellectual disabilities and controls with records linked to the Scottish Cancer Registry and death certificate data (March 2011-December 2019). The control cohort without intellectual disabilities and/or autism were used for indirect standardisation and calculation of crude incident rates/crude mortality rates, and age-sex standardised incident rate ratios/standardised mortality ratios (SIR/SMR), with 95% CIs. : Results : Adults with intellectual disabilities were most likely diagnosed cancers of digestive, specifically colorectal (14.2%), lung (9.3%), breast (female 22.9%), body of the uterus (female 9.3%) and male genital organs (male 17.6%). Higher incident cancers included metastatic cancer of unknown primary origin (female SIR=1.70, male SIR=2.08), body of uterus (female SIR=1.63), ovarian (female SIR=1.59), kidney (female SIR=1.85) and testicular (male SIR=2.49). SMRs were higher, regardless of a higher, similar or lower incidence (female SMR=1.34, male SMR=1.07). Excess mortality risk was found for colorectal (total SMR=1.54, male SMR=1.59), kidney (total SMR=2.01 u, female SMR=2.85 u), female genital organs (SMR=2.34 (ovarian SMR=2.86 u, body of uterus SMR=2.11), breast (female SMR=1.58) and metastatic cancer of unknown primary origin (female SMR=2.50 u, male SMR=2.84). : Conclusions : Adults with intellectual disabilities were more likely to die of cancer than the general population. Reasons for this may include later presentation/diagnosis (so poorer outcomes), poorer treatment/compliance or both. Accessible public health approaches are important for people with intellectual disabilities, and healthcare professionals need to be aware of the different cancer experiences faced by this population.

Clinical benefit, reimbursement outcomes, and prices of FDA-approved cancer drugs reviewed through Project Orbis in the USA, Canada, England, and Scotland: a retrospective, comparative analysis.

BACKGROUND: Project Orbis is a global initiative that aims to streamline regulatory review processes across international regulators in the USA, Canada, Australia, UK, Israel, Brazil, Singapore, and Switzerland to bring promising cancer drugs to patients earlier. We explored the clinical benefit, time to regulatory approval and health technology assessment recommendations, reimbursement outcomes, and monthly treatment prices of cancer drugs reviewed through this initiative. METHODS: For this retrospective, comparative analysis, we identified cancer drug approvals reviewed through Project Orbis in the USA, Canada, and the UK between May 1, 2019, and Nov 1, 2023. Approvals of cancer drugs reviewed Project Orbis were extracted from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Oncology Centre of Excellence and all other FDA approvals from the Drugs@FDA database. The co-primary outcomes were time of regulatory review, time from regulatory approval to health technology assessment recommendation (England, Scotland, and Canada), reimbursement outcomes, clinical benefit (defined as median gains in progression-free survival and overall survival) between cancer drug approvals reviewed by Project Orbis and other FDA approval processes, and monthly treatment prices. The Wilcoxon rank-sum and Fisher's Exact tests were used to examine statistical significance between approvals reviewed through Project Orbis and other FDA approvals during the same period. FINDINGS: Between May 1, 2019 and Nov 1, 2023, 81 (33%) of 244 cancer drugs approved by the FDA were reviewed through Project Orbis. The median overall survival gains were 4·1 months (IQR 3·3-5·1) compared with 2·7 months (2·1-3·9) for other FDA approvals. Similarly, progression-free survival gains were 2·6 months (IQR 1·7-4·9) for Project Orbis compared with 2·6 months (0·6-5·1) for other FDA approvals. Neither overall survival (p=0·11) nor progression-free survival (p=0·44) gains were significantly different between the two cohorts of approvals. Of the 14 UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approvals reviewed by the Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC), the agency gave positive recommendations for all 14 (100%). Of the 15 MHRA approvals reviewed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the agency gave positive recommendations for six (40%). Of the 49 approvals reviewed by the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH), the agency conditionally recommended 44 (90%). The time between regulatory approval to NICE recommendation increased from a median of 137 days (IQR 102-172) in 2021 to 302 days (184-483) in 2023, SMC recommendation increased from 185 days (in 2021 for one drug only) to 368 days (IQR 313-476) in 2023, and CADTH decision increased from 97 days (in 2020 for one drug only) to 202 days (IQR 153-304) in 2023. The median monthly price of approvals reviewed through Project Orbis was US$20 000 per month (IQR 13 000-37 000). INTERPRETATION: Clinical outcomes of Project Orbis were no different than other FDA approvals during the same time, and access, after a successful health technology assessment, was considerably delayed or absent, raising questions about whether Project Orbis participation translates into faster patient access to medicines with high clinical benefit and sustainable costs. Although future challenges might benefit from regulatory harmonisation, the advantages are currently unclear. FUNDING: None.

The survival benefit associated with complete macroscopic resection in epithelial ovarian cancer is histotype specific.

BACKGROUND: Complete macroscopic resection is a key factor associated with prolonged survival in ovarian cancer. However, most evidence derives from high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma, and the benefit of complete macroscopic resection in other histotypes is poorly characterized. We sought to determine which histotypes derive the greatest benefit from complete macroscopic resection to better inform future decisions on radical cytoreductive efforts. METHODS: We performed multivariable analysis of disease-specific survival across 2 independent patient cohorts to determine the magnitude of benefit associated with complete macroscopic resection within each histotype. RESULTS: Across both cohorts (Scottish: n = 1622; Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results [SEER]: n = 18 947), complete macroscopic resection was associated with prolonged disease-specific survival; this was more marked in the Scottish cohort (multivariable hazard ratio [HR] = 0.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.37 to 0.52 vs HR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.57 to 0.62 in SEER). In both cohorts, clear cell ovarian carcinoma was among the histotypes to benefit most from complete macroscopic resection (multivariable HR = 0.23 and HR = 0.50 in Scottish and SEER cohorts, respectively); high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma patients demonstrated highly statistically significant and clinically meaningful survival benefit, but this was of lower magnitude than in clear cell ovarian carcinoma and endometrioid ovarian carcinoma across both cohorts. The benefit derived in low-grade serous ovarian carcinoma is also high (multivariable HR = 0.27 in Scottish cohort). Complete macroscopic resection was associated with prolonged survival in mucinous ovarian carcinoma patients in the SEER cohort (multivariable HR = 0.65), but the association failed to reach statistical significance in the Scottish cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The overall ovarian cancer patient population demonstrates clinically significant survival benefit associated with complete macroscopic resection; however, the magnitude of benefit differs between histotypes.

Health Economic Evaluation of Lung Cancer Screening Using a Diagnostic Blood Test: The Early Detection of Cancer of the Lung Scotland (ECLS).

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic blood tests have the potential to identify lung cancer in people at high risk. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a lung cancer screening intervention, using the EarlyCDT®-Lung Test (ECLS) with subsequent X-ray and low-dose chest CT scans (LDCT) for patients with a positive test result, compared to both usual care and LDCT screening for the target population. METHODS: We conducted a model-based lifetime analysis from a UK NHS and personal social services perspective. We estimated incremental net monetary benefit (NMB) for the ECLS intervention compared to no screening and to LDCT screening. RESULTS: The incremental NMB of ECLS intervention compared to no screening was GBP 33,179 (95% CI: -GBP 81,396, GBP 147,180) and GBP 140,609 (95% CI: -GBP 36,255, GBP 316,612), respectively, for a cost-effectiveness threshold of GBP 20,000 and GBP 30,000 per quality-adjusted life year. The same figures compared with LDCT screening were GBP 162,095 (95% CI: GBP 52,698, GBP 271,735) and GBP 52,185 (95% CI: -GBP 115,152, GBP 219,711). CONCLUSIONS: The ECLS intervention is the most cost-effective screening alternative, with the highest probability of being cost-effective, when compared to no screening or LDCT screening. This result may change with modifications of the parameters, suggesting that the three alternatives considered in the main analysis are potentially cost-effective.

Evaluating adherence to ECG monitoring protocols for methadone patients in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Opioid Agonist Treatment (OAT) is the gold standard for managing Opioid Use Disorder (OUD). It is highly effective at reducing all-cause mortality and drug-related harms. Prescribing OAT, particularly methadone, is becoming increasingly complex as Scotland's OUD population ages. Older patients, with increased polypharmacy and multimorbidity, are more susceptible to QTc interval prolongation associated with methadone use. Therefore, adherence to ECG monitoring guidelines for patients prescribed methadone is crucial, though insights from substance use services indicate suboptimal compliance. Medically Assisted Treatment guidelines established by the Scottish Government advocate for shared care agreements, thus transferring OAT prescribing responsibilities to primary care. Understanding ECG monitoring guideline implementation in non-specialist services is vital for developing safe OAT services in primary care. AIM: This audit assessed adherence to NICE guidelines for ECG monitoring in OUD patients prescribed methadone in a Scottish primary care practice. METHOD: The notes of patients prescribed methadone were assessed using NICE criteria to determine eligibility for ECG monitoring. Eligible patients' medical records were reviewed to identify previous ECG investigations. RESULTS: Of 21 patients prescribed methadone, 16 qualified for ECG monitoring. Only 25% of eligible patients received ECG monitoring per NICE guideline, meaning 75% did not. CONCLUSION: These findings highlight that the issue of poor compliance with ECG monitoring guidelines is not limited to specialist services, but also affects primary care. Further exploration of barriers to guideline implementation is essential. Perhaps more resources are needed to integrate OAT services into primary care, which has taken on increased responsibilities without corresponding investment.

Generation Scotland: an update on Scotland's longitudinal family health study.

PURPOSE: Generation Scotland (GS) is a large family-based cohort study established as a longitudinal resource for research into the genetic, lifestyle and environmental determinants of physical and mental health. It comprises extensive genetic, sociodemographic and clinical data from volunteers in Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 24 084 adult participants, including 5501 families, were recruited between 2006 and 2011. Within the cohort, 59% (approximately 14 209) are women, with an average age at recruitment of 49 years. Participants completed a health questionnaire and attended an in-person clinic visit, where detailed baseline data were collected on lifestyle information, cognitive function, personality traits and mental and physical health. Genotype array data are available for 20 026 (83%) participants, and blood-based DNA methylation (DNAm) data for 18 869 (78%) participants. Linkage to routine National Health Service datasets has been possible for 93% (n=22 402) of the cohort, creating a longitudinal resource that includes primary care, hospital attendance, prescription and mortality records. Multimodal brain imaging is available in 1069 individuals. FINDINGS TO DATE: GS has been widely used by researchers across the world to study the genetic and environmental basis of common complex diseases. Over 350 peer-reviewed papers have been published using GS data, contributing to research areas such as ageing, cancer, cardiovascular disease and mental health. Recontact studies have built on the GS cohort to collect additional prospective data to study chronic pain, major depressive disorder and COVID-19. FUTURE PLANS: To create a larger, richer, longitudinal resource, 'Next Generation Scotland' launched in May 2022 to expand the existing cohort by a target of 20 000 additional volunteers, now including anyone aged 12+ years. New participants complete online consent and questionnaires and provide postal saliva samples, from which genotype and salivary DNAm array data will be generated. The latest cohort information and how to access data can be found on the GS website (www.generationscotland.org).

Development of an outcome indicator framework for a universal health visiting programme using routinely collected data.

BACKGROUND: Universal health visiting has been a cornerstone of preventative healthcare for children in the United Kingdom (UK) for over 100 years. In 2016, Scotland introduced a new Universal Health Visiting Pathway (UHVP), involving a greater number of contacts with a particular emphasis on the first year, visits within the home setting, and rigorous developmental assessment conducted by a qualified Health Visitor. To evaluate the UHVP, an outcome indicator framework was developed using routine administrative data. This paper sets out the development of these indicators. METHODS: A logic model was produced with stakeholders to define the group of outcomes, before further refining and aligning of the measures through discussions with stakeholders and inspection of data. Power calculations were carried out and initial data described for the chosen indicators. RESULTS: Eighteen indicators were selected across eight outcome areas: parental smoking, breastfeeding, immunisations, dental health, developmental concerns, obesity, accidents and injuries, and child protection interventions. Data quality was mixed. Coverage of reviews was high; over 90% of children received key reviews. Individual item completion was more variable: 92.2% had breastfeeding data at 6-8 weeks, whilst 63.2% had BMI recorded at 27-30 months. Prevalence also varied greatly, from 1.3% of children's names being on the Child Protection register for over six months by age three, to 93.6% having received all immunisations by age two. CONCLUSIONS: Home visiting services play a key role in ensuring children and families have the right support to enable the best start in life. As these programmes evolve, it is crucial to understand whether changes lead to improvements in child outcomes. This paper describes a set of indicators using routinely-collected data, lessening additional burden on participants, and reducing response bias which may be apparent in other forms of evaluation. Further research is needed to explore the transferability of this indicator framework to other settings.

Trust in cervical screening and attributions of blame for interval cancers following a national controversy.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated levels of trust and attributions of blame in connection with a cervical screening programme following a controversy related to the programme's audit, incorporating an experimental test of the effectiveness of new information materials. DESIGN: We compared responses in Ireland (N = 872) to equivalent responses in Scotland (N = 400). Participants in Ireland were randomly assigned to either a treatment group that received the information materials or a control group that did not. Participants then responded to questions about their trust in cervical screening and to whom they would attribute blame in a range of scenarios describing women diagnosed with cervical cancer between screening rounds. RESULTS: Results showed that the control group in Ireland had lower trust and attributed higher blame towards screening services than participants in Scotland. However, exposure to information materials in the treatment group improved trust and reduced blame. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that public controversies influence perceptions of screening programmes and underscore the importance of transparent, choice-based communication in mitigating these effects. The findings have valuable implications for screening services worldwide as all screening programmes will have associated false negative and false positive results.

The Effect of Pandemic on Lung Cancer Waiting Time - Tertiary Center Experience.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis and treatment of lung cancer are crucial to improve the survival and the outcomes in patients who are diagnosed with lung cancer. Many factors can affect the waiting time for lung cancer treatment, however, the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was one of the major factors that universally slowed down clinical activities in the last three years. We are aiming with this study to demonstrate how this pandemic and other factors affected the lung cancer waiting times for diagnosis and treatment. METHODS: This is a retrospective study including 670 patients who were diagnosed with lung cancer within the NHS Lothian region of Edinburgh - Scotland between March 2019 and November 2023. One hundred patients underwent curative lung resection. Patients were categorised into three groups for sub analysis. The first group included patients diagnosed before the COVID-19 pandemic, the second group included patients diagnosed during the pandemic in 2020, and the third group represents those diagnosed after the mass vaccination program was established and until November 2023. RESULTS: The average waiting time between the referral from the GP to the date of surgery in the three groups was 88.5 days, 81 days, and 83.5 days, respectively. On the other hand, the waiting times elapsing between the first surgical clinic appointment and the date of the surgery itself were 17.6 days, 18.6 days, and 21.5 days, respectively. CONCLUSION: Unexpectedly waiting times elapsing between the referral to surgery and the date of surgery amongst lung cancer patients showed improvement during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is likely due to prioritizing cancer patients. Nevertheless, actions should be considered to decrease the waiting times in general.

Insights for clinical management from the real-life data of the centralized West of Scotland biliary cancer clinic.

BACKGROUND: With the increasing of novel therapeutics for the treatment of Biliary Tract Cancers (BTC), and the need to assess their socio-economic impacts for national licence approvals, it is as important as ever to have real-life data in national populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed an audit of the first 2 year-activity (Sep 2019-Sep 2021) of the centralized West-of-Scotland-BTC clinic. 122 patients accessed the service, including 68% with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), 27% with gallbladder cancer (GBC), and 5% with ampulla of Vater carcinoma with biliary phenotype (AVC). Median age at diagnosis was 66 (28-84), with 30% of newly diagnosed patients being younger than 60 years-old. Thirty-five cases (29%) underwent surgery, followed by adjuvant-chemotherapy in 66%. 60% had recurrent disease (80% with distant relapse). Sixty-four patients (58%) started first-line Systemic-AntiCancer-Treatment (SACT). Of these, 37% received second line SACT, the majority of which had iCCA and GBC. Thirty-% of those who progressed received third line SACT. CONCLUSIONS: About 30% of BTC were eligible for curative surgery. Fifty-eight and twenty% of the overall cohort of advanced BTC patients received first and second line SACT. Our data suggest that reflex genomic profiling may not be cost-effective until molecularly driven strategies are limited to second line setting.

Oesophageal cell collection device and biomarker testing to identify high-risk Barrett's patients requiring endoscopic investigation.

BACKGROUND: Barrett's oesophagus surveillance places significant burden on endoscopy services yet is vital to detect early cancerous change. Oesophageal cell collection device (OCCD) testing was introduced across Scotland for Barrett's surveillance in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This national pragmatic retrospective study presents the CytoSCOT programme results and evaluates whether OCCD testing is successfully identifying high-risk Barrett's patients requiring urgent endoscopy. METHODS: All patients undergoing OCCD testing for Barrett's surveillance across 11 Scottish health boards over a 32-month period were identified. Patients who underwent endoscopy within 12 months of OCCD test were included. Individual patient records were interrogated to record clinical information and OCCD test result to categorize patients into risk groups. Endoscopic histopathology results were analysed according to risk group and segment length. Patients were deemed high risk if the OCCD test demonstrated atypia and/or p53 positivity. RESULTS: 4204 OCCD tests were performed in 3745 patients: 608 patients underwent endoscopy within 12 months and were included in this analysis. Patients with longer Barrett's segments were significantly more likely to have an abnormal OCCD test. 50/608 patients (8.2%) had high-grade dysplasia or cancer on endoscopic biopsies: this equates to 1.3% of the total group (50/3745). 46/50 patients (92.0%) were deemed high risk, triggering urgent endoscopy: this rose to 100% with insufficient tests removed. There were no cancers diagnosed within 12 months post-OCCD in the low-risk group. CONCLUSION: OCCD testing is an effective triage tool to identify high-risk patients with Barrett's oesophagus requiring further investigation with endoscopy within the real-world setting.

A stakeholder analysis to prepare for real-world evaluation of integrating artificial intelligent algorithms into breast screening (PREP-AIR study): a qualitative study using the WHO guide.

BACKGROUND: The national breast screening programme in the United Kingdom is under pressure due to workforce shortages and having been paused during the COVID-19 pandemic. Artificial intelligence has the potential to transform how healthcare is delivered by improving care processes and patient outcomes. Research on the clinical and organisational benefits of artificial intelligence is still at an early stage, and numerous concerns have been raised around its implications, including patient safety, acceptance, and accountability for decisions. Reforming the breast screening programme to include artificial intelligence is a complex endeavour because numerous stakeholders influence it. Therefore, a stakeholder analysis was conducted to identify relevant stakeholders, explore their views on the proposed reform (i.e., integrating artificial intelligence algorithms into the Scottish National Breast Screening Service for breast cancer detection) and develop strategies for managing 'important' stakeholders. METHODS: A qualitative study (i.e., focus groups and interviews, March-November 2021) was conducted using the stakeholder analysis guide provided by the World Health Organisation and involving three Scottish health boards: NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde, NHS Grampian and NHS Lothian. The objectives included: (A) Identify possible stakeholders (B) Explore stakeholders' perspectives and describe their characteristics (C) Prioritise stakeholders in terms of importance and (D) Develop strategies to manage 'important' stakeholders. Seven stakeholder characteristics were assessed: their knowledge of the targeted reform, position, interest, alliances, resources, power and leadership. RESULTS: Thirty-two participants took part from 14 (out of 17 identified) sub-groups of stakeholders. While they were generally supportive of using artificial intelligence in breast screening programmes, some concerns were raised. Stakeholder knowledge, influence and interests in the reform varied. Key advantages mentioned include service efficiency, quicker results and reduced work pressure. Disadvantages included overdiagnosis or misdiagnosis of cancer, inequalities in detection and the self-learning capacity of the algorithms. Five strategies (with considerations suggested by stakeholders) were developed to maintain and improve the support of 'important' stakeholders. CONCLUSIONS: Health services worldwide face similar challenges of workforce issues to provide patient care. The findings of this study will help others to learn from Scottish experiences and provide guidance to conduct similar studies targeting healthcare reform. STUDY REGISTRATION: researchregistry6579, date of registration: 16/02/2021.

Younger but sicker? Cohort trends in disease accumulation among middle-aged and older adults in Scotland using health-linked data from the Scottish Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom, rising prevalence of multimorbidity-the co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions- is coinciding with stagnation in life expectancy. We investigate patterns of disease accumulation and how they vary by birth cohort, social and environmental inequalities in Scotland, a country which has long suffered from excess mortality and poorer health outcomes relative to its neighbours. METHODS: Using a dataset which links census data from 1991, 2001 and 2011 to disease registers and hospitalization data, we follow cohorts of adults aged 30-69 years for 18 years. We model physical and mental disease accumulation using linear mixed-effects models. RESULTS: Recent cohorts experience higher levels of chronic disease accumulation compared to their predecessors at the same ages. Moreover, in more recently born cohorts we observe socioeconomic status disparities emerging earlier in the life course, which widen over time and with every successive cohort. Patterns of chronic conditions are also changing, and the most common diseases suffered by later born cohorts are cancer, hypertension, asthma, drug and alcohol problems and depression. CONCLUSION: We recommend policies which target prevention of chronic disease in working age adults, considering how and why certain conditions are becoming more prevalent across time and space.

The impact of multiple deprivation on the management of vestibular schwannomas.

PURPOSE: While some factors have been well-shown to affect the decision-making in treating patients with vestibular schwannomas (VS), little is known on the role of deprivation. Our objective was to assess the effect of socioeconomic background on the management of patients with VS. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 460 patients with sporadic VS from West of Scotland. The postcode-based, multifactorial Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) was used to assess the socioeconomic background of each patient. We performed a multivariate analysis including tumour size, growth and patient age with management modality (observation, stereotactic radiotherapy, microsurgery) being the main outcome measure and outcome (need for additional treatment) an additional measure. RESULTS: We found no significant difference in the demographics, tumour characteristics and primary treatment choice between patients with different SIMD scores. In addition, there was no statistically significant difference in the growth occurrence rates following first-line treatment (p = 0.964) and in the second-line treatment choice (p = 0.460). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple deprivation does not affect decision making in patients with VS in the examined cohort. This is probably linked to the centralisation and uniformity of the service and might not necessarily be applicable to other health services without centralisation.

Enhancing clinical decision support with genomic tools in breast cancer: A Scottish perspective.

INTRODUCTION: The Oncotype DX Breast RS test has been adopted in Scotland and has been the subject of a large population-based study by a Scottish Consensus Group to assess the uptake of the recurrence score (RS), evaluate co-variates associated with the RS and to analyse the effect it may have had on clinical practice. MATERIALS & METHODS: Pan-Scotland study between August 2018-August 2021 evaluating 833 patients who had a RS test performed as part of their diagnostic pathway. Data was extracted retrospectively from electronic records and analysis conducted to describe change in chemotherapy administration (by direct comparison with conventional risk assessment tools), and univariate/multivariate analysis to assess relationship between covariates and the RS. RESULTS: Chemotherapy treatment was strongly influenced by the RS (p < 0.001). Only 30 % of patients received chemotherapy treatment in the intermediate and high risk PREDICT groups, where chemotherapy is considered. Additionally, 55.5 % of patients with a high risk PREDICT had a low RS and did not receive chemotherapy. There were 17 % of patients with a low risk PREDICT but high RS who received chemotherapy. Multivariate regression analysis showed the progesterone receptor Allred score (PR score) to be a strong independent predictor of the RS, with a negative PR score being associated with high RS (OR 4.49, p < 0.001). Increasing grade was also associated with high RS (OR 3.81, p < 0.001). Classic lobular pathology was associated with a low RS in comparison to other tumour pathology (p < 0.01). Nodal disease was associated with a lower RS (p = 0.012) on univariate analysis, with menopausal status (p = 0.43) not influencing the RS on univariate or multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Genomic assays offer the potential for risk-stratified decision making regarding the use of chemotherapy. They can help reduce unnecessary chemotherapy treatment and identify a subgroup of patients with more adverse genomic tumour biology. A recent publication by Health Improvement Scotland (HIS) has updated guidance on use of the RS test for NHS Scotland. It suggests to limit its use to the intermediate risk PREDICT group. Our study shows the impact of the RS test in the low and high risk PREDICT groups. The implementation across Scotland has resulted in a notable shift in practice, leading to a significant reduction in chemotherapy administration in the setting of high risk PREDICT scores returning low risk RS. There has also been utility for the test in the low risk PREDICT group to detect a small subgroup with a high RS. We have found the PR score to have a strong independent association with high risk RS. This finding was not evaluated by the key RS test papers, and the potential prognostic information provided by the PR score as a surrogate biomarker is an outstanding question that requires more research to validate.

Outcomes of patients with Juvenile Polyposis-Hereditary Haemorrhagic Telangiectasia caused by pathogenic SMAD4 variants in a pan-Scotland cohort.

Constitutional loss of SMAD4 function results in Juvenile Polyposis-Hereditary Haemorrhagic Telangiectasia Overlap Syndrome (JP-HHT). A retrospective multi-centre case-note review identified 28 patients with a pathogenic SMAD4 variant from 13 families across all Scottish Clinical Genetics Centres. This provided a complete clinical picture of the Scottish JP-HHT cohort. Colonic polyps were identified in 87% (23/28) and gastric polyps in 67% (12/18) of screened patients. Complication rates were high: 43% (10/23) of patients with polyps required a colectomy and 42% (5/12) required a gastrectomy. Colorectal cancer occurred in 25% (7/28) of patients, at a median age of 33 years. Pulmonary arteriovenous malformations were identified in 42% (8/19) of screened patients. 88% (23/26) and 81% (17/21) of patients exhibited JP and HHT features respectively, with 70% (14/20) demonstrating features of both conditions. We have shown that individuals with a pathogenic SMAD4 variant are all at high risk of both gastrointestinal neoplasia and HHT-related vascular complications, requiring a comprehensive screening programme.

Emergency presentation of colorectal cancer in older adults: A retrospective cohort analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Adults aged 70 years and over account for almost 60% of colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnoses in the United Kingdom. Whilst emergency presentation of CRC is known to be associated with poorer outcomes across all ages, older adults are less likely to be treated with curative intent and have poorer overall survival (OS). We aimed to investigate whether presentation, management, or outcome differed in older (≥70 years) versus younger (<70 years) adults in our population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The electronic records of patients diagnosed with CRC within the period 2016 to 2019 in National Health Service (NHS) Tayside, Scotland were retrospectively analysed. Patients were grouped by age (<70 years and ≥70 years). Demographics were compared by Chi-squared or t-test, and Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard regression were used for survival analyses. RESULTS: In total, 1245 patients were diagnosed with CRC (median age 71 years, range 20-98). Of these, 215 patients (17.3%) presented emergently and were included in the analysis. Older adults accounted for 65.1% (n = 140) of emergency presentations. Older adults were less likely to present with classical symptoms of CRC (80.0% vs 90.7%, p = 0.04) and more likely to present via the medical assessment unit (46.4% vs 30.7%, p = 0.03). Additionally, older adults were less likely to receive a histological diagnosis of CRC (71.4% vs 97.3%, p < 0.001) or have complete staging investigations performed (78.6% vs 96.0%, p < 0.001). Fewer older adults underwent surgical management (55.0% vs 86.7%, p < 0.001) and fewer were treated with chemotherapy (14.3% vs 69.3%, p < 0.001). Whilst older adults had poorer median OS than those aged <70 years (12.0 vs 34.4 months, p < 0.001), multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression demonstrated that higher stage (stage III hazard ratio [HR] 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-4.7, stage IV HR 16.7, 95% CI 9.7-28.8, incomplete HR 8.2, 95% CI 4.6-14.7) and not receiving chemotherapy (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.7-4.0) were associated with poorer survival, whereas age and sex were not. DISCUSSION: Emergency presentation of colorectal cancer was more common in older adults. Older adults were more likely to present atypically, less likely to have completed staging, and had lower rates of intervention, which were associated with poorer survival outcome.

Can proactive support prevent unscheduled care? A controlled observational retrospective cohort study in cancer patients in Scotland.

INTRODUCTION: Preventative spend is a global health and social care strategy. Improving Cancer Journeys (ICJ) is a proactive, holistic, multidisciplinary project consistent with this agenda, currently being rolled out across Scotland and parts of UK. ICJ helps people with cancer access whatever support they need to mitigate their most pressing concerns. This study hypothesised that ICJ service users should subsequently use less unscheduled care than matched cohorts not using ICJ. METHODS: Retrospective observational cohort study using linked national datasets. N = 1,214 ICJ users in Glasgow were matched for age, sex, deprivation, cancer type, stage, and diagnosis year to two control groups: 1. Cancer patients from Glasgow before ICJ (pre-2014), 2. Cancer patients from rest of Scotland during study period (2014-2018). Cancer registrations were linked for 12-month baseline and study periods to: NHS24 calls, A&E admissions, inpatient hospital admissions, unscheduled care, number & cost of psychotropic prescriptions. Per-person mean service uses were compared between groups. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in NHS24 calls in the ICJ group (0.36 per person vs. -0.03 or 0.35), more and longer A&E attendances in ICJ (0.37 per person vs. 0.19 or 0.26; 2.19 h per person vs. 0.81-0.92 h), more and longer hospital admissions in ICJ (4.25 vs. 2.59 or 2.53; 12.05 days vs. 8.37 or 8.64), more care pathways involving more steps in ICJ (0.77 spells vs. 0.39 or 0.57; 1.88 steps vs. 1.56 or 1.21), more psychotropic drug prescriptions and higher costs in ICJ (1.88 prescription vs. 1.56 or 1.21; £9.51 vs. £9.57 or £6.95) in comparison to both control groups. DISCUSSION: ICJ users sourced significantly more unscheduled care than matched cohorts. These findings were consistent with much of the comparable literature examining the impact of non-health interventions on subsequent health spend. They also add to the growing evidence showing that ICJ reached its intended target, those with the greatest need. Together these findings raise the possibility that those choosing to use ICJ may also be self-identifying as a cohort of people more likely to use unscheduled care in future. This needs to be tested prospectively, because this understanding would be very helpful for health and social care planners in all countries where proactive holistic services exist.