Long-term follow-up study of necrotising pancreatitis: interventions, complications and quality of life.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the long-term consequences of necrotising pancreatitis, including complications, the need for interventions and the quality of life. DESIGN: Long-term follow-up of a prospective multicentre cohort of 373 necrotising pancreatitis patients (2005-2008) was performed. Patients were prospectively evaluated and received questionnaires. Readmissions (ie, for recurrent or chronic pancreatitis), interventions, pancreatic insufficiency and quality of life were compared between initial treatment groups: conservative, endoscopic/percutaneous drainage alone and necrosectomy. Associations of patient and disease characteristics during index admission with outcomes during follow-up were assessed. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 13.5 years (range 12-15.5 years), 97/373 patients (26%) were readmitted for recurrent pancreatitis. Endoscopic or percutaneous drainage was performed in 47/373 patients (13%), of whom 21/47 patients (45%) were initially treated conservatively. Pancreatic necrosectomy or pancreatic surgery was performed in 31/373 patients (8%), without differences between treatment groups. Endocrine insufficiency (126/373 patients; 34%) and exocrine insufficiency (90/373 patients; 38%), developed less often following conservative treatment (p<0.001 and p=0.016, respectively). Quality of life scores did not differ between groups. Pancreatic gland necrosis >50% during initial admission was associated with percutaneous/endoscopic drainage (OR 4.3 (95% CI 1.5 to 12.2)), pancreatic surgery (OR 3.2 (95% CI 1.1 to 9.5) and development of endocrine insufficiency (OR13.1 (95% CI 5.3 to 32.0) and exocrine insufficiency (OR6.1 (95% CI 2.4 to 15.5) during follow-up. CONCLUSION: Acute necrotising pancreatitis carries a substantial disease burden during long-term follow-up in terms of recurrent disease, the necessity for interventions and development of pancreatic insufficiency, even when treated conservatively during the index admission. Extensive (>50%) pancreatic parenchymal necrosis seems to be an important predictor of interventions and complications during follow-up.

Long-Term Outcome of Immediate Versus Postponed Intervention in Patients With Infected Necrotizing Pancreatitis (POINTER): Multicenter Randomized Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the long-term outcomes of immediate drainage versus the postponed-drainage approach in patients with infected necrotizing pancreatitis. BACKGROUND: In the randomized POINTER trial, patients assigned to the postponed-drainage approach using antibiotic treatment required fewer interventions, as compared with immediate drainage, and over a third were treated without any intervention. METHODS: Clinical data of those patients alive after the initial 6-month follow-up were re-evaluated. The primary outcome was a composite of death and major complications. RESULTS: Out of 104 patients, 88 were re-evaluated with a median follow-up of 51 months. After the initial 6-month follow-up, the primary outcome occurred in 7 of 47 patients (15%) in the immediate-drainage group and 7 of 41 patients (17%) in the postponed-drainage group (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.33-2.28; P =0.78). Additional drainage procedures were performed in 7 patients (15%) versus 3 patients (7%) (RR 2.03; 95% CI 0.56-7.37; P =0.34). The median number of additional interventions was 0 (IQR 0-0) in both groups ( P =0.028). In the total follow-up, the median number of interventions was higher in the immediate-drainage group than in the postponed-drainage group (4 vs. 1, P =0.001). Eventually, 14 of 15 patients (93%) in the postponed-drainage group who were successfully treated in the initial 6-month follow-up with antibiotics and without any intervention remained without intervention. At the end of follow-up, pancreatic function and quality of life were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Also, during long-term follow-up, a postponed-drainage approach using antibiotics in patients with infected necrotizing pancreatitis results in fewer interventions as compared with immediate drainage and should therefore be the preferred approach. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN33682933.

[A modified method for percutaneous drainage of acute necrotic collections in patients with infected pancreatic necrosis]. / Modifitsirovannyi metod chreskozhnogo drenirovaniya ostrykh nekroticheskikh skoplenii u patsientov s infitsirovannym pankreonekrozom.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a modified method for percutaneous drainage of acute necrotic collections in patients with infected pancreatic necrosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Minimally invasive surgical technologies were used in 74 patients with infected acute necrotic collections at the Krasnodar Regional Clinical Hospital No. 2 between 2017 and 2019. Of these, 59 (79.7%) people underwent percutaneous drainage as a final treatment. In 11 (14.9%) patients, video sequestrectomy through the fistula was additionally used to increase efficiency of percutaneous drainage. RESULTS: PCD in our modification implies delivery of double-lumen drains 26-32 Fr in the same plane to zones of necrosis, their programmed replacement for prevention of obstruction and flexible endoscopy for control of pathological process. Local purulent-necrotic parapancreatitis occurred in 31 (41.9%) patients, widespread parapancreatitis - in 43 (58.1%) patients. There were 339 minimally invasive interventions. Laparotomy was required in 4 (5.4%) patients. Incidence of perioperative complications was 10.6%, mortality - 16.2%. CONCLUSION: A modified percutaneous drainage method may be used as final surgical treatment in 79.7% of patients with infected pancreatic necrosis.

A Risk Score for Predicting the Necessity of Surgical Necrosectomy in the Treatment of Infected Necrotizing Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: For infected necrotizing pancreatitis (INP), percutaneous catheter drainage (PCD) is now widely acknowledged as the initial intervention in a step-up approach, followed, if necessary, by minimally invasive necrosectomy or even open pancreatic necrosectomy. However, an overemphasis on PCD may cause a patient's condition to deteriorate, leading to missed surgical opportunities or even death. This study aimed to develop a simple and convenient scoring tool for assessing the need for surgery in INP patients who received PCD procedures. METHODS: In an observational study conducted between April 2015 and December 2020, PCD was utilized as the initial step to treat 143 consecutive INP patients. A surgical necrosectomy was performed when the patient failed to respond. Risk factors of PCD failure (i.e., need for surgical necrosectomy) were identified by multivariate logistic regression models. An integer-based risk scoring tool was developed using the ß coefficients derived from the logistic regression model. RESULTS: In 62 (43.4%) patients, PCD was successful, while the remaining 81 (56.6%) individuals required subsequent surgical necrosectomy. In the multivariate model, organ failure, percentage of pancreatic necrosis, extrapancreatic necrosis volume, and mean CT density of extrapancreatic necrosis volume were associated with a need for surgical necrosectomy. A predictive scoring tool based on these four factors demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.893. Under the scoring tool, a total score of 4 or more indicates a high possibility of surgical necrosectomy being required (at least 80%). Using the coordinates of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the sensitivity and specificity at this threshold are 0.802 and 0.903, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A risk score model integrating organ failure, percentage of pancreatic necrosis, extrapancreatic necrosis volume, and mean CT density of extrapancreatic necrosis volume can identify INP patients at high risk for necrosectomy. The straightforward risk assessment tool assists clinicians in stratifying INP patients and making more judicious medical decisions.

[Technological features of open and minimally invasive surgical treatment of local complications of purulent-necrotic pancreatitis]. / Sravnenie tekhnologicheskikh osobennostei primeneniya otkrytykh i minimal'no invazivnykh sposobov khirurgicheskogo lecheniya mestnykh oslozhnenii gnoino-nekroticheskogo pankreatita.

There are various options for surgical treatment of purulent-necrotic pancreatitis with significant technological differences. Combining surgical methods other than traditional ones into a group of minimally invasive ones based on the principle of the absence of standard laparotomy is not entirely correct. The review presents modern methods of surgical treatment of acute pancreatitis, comparison of their technology regarding classical stages of surgical intervention and their classification.

Nomogram development and validation for predicting minimally invasive step-up approach failure in infected necrotizing pancreatitis patients: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that minimally invasive treatment for infected necrotizing pancreatitis (INP) may be safer and more effective than open necrosectomy (ON), but ON is still irreplaceable in a portion of INP patients. Furthermore, there is a lack of tools to identify INP patients at risk of minimally invasive step-up approach failure (eventually received ON or died), which may enable appropriate treatment for them. Our study aims to identify risk factors that can predict minimally invasive step-up approach failure in INP patients and to develop a nomogram for early prediction. METHODS: Multivariate logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association between minimally invasive step-up approach failure and factors regarding demographics, disease severity, laboratory index, and the location of extrapancreatic necrotic collections. A novel nomogram was developed, and its performance was validated both internally and externally by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: There were 267, 89, and 107 patients in the training, internal, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that the computed tomography severity index (CTSI) greater than 8 points, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score of 16 points or more, early spontaneous bleeding, fungi infection, granulocyte and platelet decrease within 30 days of acute pancreatitis onset, and extrapancreatic necrosis collection located in small bowel mesentery were independent risk factors for minimally invasive step-up approach failure. The area under the curve and coefficient of determination ( R2 ) of the nomogram constructed from the above factors were 0.920 and 0.644, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model had good fitness ( P =0.206). In addition, the nomogram performed well in both the internal and external validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram had a good performance in predicting minimally invasive step-up approach failure, which may help clinicians distinguish INP patients at risk of minimally invasive step-up approach failure early.

Endoscopic Ultrasound-guided Trans-esophageal Transmural Drainage of Mediastinal Pseudocysts: A Case Series.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Mediastinal pseudocysts (MP) are rare, and surgery is the conventional treatment modality. However, in the last decade, excellent outcomes have been reported with endoscopic transpapillary drainage. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) guided trans-esophageal transmural drainage of MP is a minimally invasive and effective non-surgical treatment modality, but the experience is limited. We aimed to report our experience of EUS-guided transmural drainage in 10 patients with MP's. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of patients with pancreatic fluid collections treated with EUS-guided transmural drainage over the last ten years was completed to to identify patients with MP's. RESULTS: Ten patients (8 males, with a mean age of 34.9±9.17 years) with MP treated with EUS-guided transesophageal transmural drainage were identified. Nine patients with MP had concurrent chronic pancreatitis, and only one had MP following acute necrotizing pancreatitis. The mean size of MP was 5.70±1.64 cm, and nine patients (90%) had concurrent abdominal pseudocyst. EUS-guided transesophageal transmural drainage was technically successful in all ten patients. Transmural plastic stents were placed in 9 patients, whereas one patient underwent single-time complete aspiration of the MP. There were no immediate or delayed procedure-related complications. All ten patients had a successful outcome, with the mean resolution time being 2.80±0.79 weeks. There has been no recurrence of PFC or symptoms in nine (90%) successfully treated patients over a mean follow-up period of 43.3 months. CONCLUSIONS: EUS-guided trans-esophageal drainage of MP is safe with a high technical and clinical success rate.

Diagnosis and Contemporary Management of Necrotizing Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis is a common diagnosis which requires a prompt diagnosis and management by a multidisciplinary team with often general surgeons as the initial provider. Morbidity and mortality from an acute pancreatitis can be very high, especially in patients with a progressive worsening acute pancreatitis developing into pancreatic necrosis in the setting of multiple underlying medical comorbidities. PURPOSE: In this review paper, we discuss all aspects of acute pancreatitis and its potential complications, as well providing updates in the modern management of necrotizing pancreatitis. Practicing general surgeons need to be aware of the evolution in the diagnosis and treatment of this disease. RESEARCH DESIGN: We conducted a review of literature of evidence and management options for acute pancreatitis, including all published manuscripts from 2012 to 2022. RESULTS: Diagnosis and management of this disease can vary among specialiaties. The decision to utilize a percutaneous or endoscopic techniques are relevant points of discussion within general surgery and gastroenterology societies. In the past decade, the use of advanced endoscopic interventions has slowly replaced conventional open surgery in managing complications of acute severe pancreatitis. CONCLUSION: Acute pancreatitis is a disease which requires multidisciplinary approach with evolving treatment options to less invasive nonsurgical methods.

[Basic principles,methods and evaluation of minimally invasive treatment for infected pancreatic necrosis].

Infected pancreatic necrosis(IPN) is the main surgical indication of acute pancreatitis. Minimally invasive debridement has become the mainstream surgical strategy of IPN,and it is only preserved for IPN patients who are not response for adequate non-surgical treatment. Transluminal or retroperitoneal drainage is preferred,and appropriate debridement can be performed. At present,it is reported that video assisted transluminal,trans-abdominal and retroperitoneal approaches can effectively control IPN infection. However,in terms of reducing pancreatic leakage and other complications,surgical and endoscopic transgastric debridement may be the future direction in the treatment of IPN.

[Imaging classification and analysis of the diagnosis and treatment of infected pancreatic necrosis:a report of 126 cases].

Objective: To explore the clinical characteristics of various types of infected pancreatic necrosis(IPN) and the prognosis of different treatment methods in the imaging classification of IPN proposed. Methods: The clinical data of 126 patients with IPN admitted to the Department of Pancreatic and Biliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University from December 2018 to December 2021 were analyzed retrospectively. There were 70 males(55.6%) and 56 females(44.4%), with age(M(IQR)) of 44(17)years (range: 12 to 87 years). There were 67 cases(53.2%) of severe acute pancreatitis and 59 cases (46.8%) of moderately severe acute pancreatitis. All cases were based on the diagnostic criteria of IPN. All cases were divided into Type Ⅰ(central IPN)(n=21), Type Ⅱ(peripheral IPN)(n=23), Type Ⅲ(mixed IPN)(n=74) and Type Ⅳ(isolated IPN)(n=8) according to the different sites of infection and necrosis on CT.According to different treatment strategies,they were divided into Step-up group(n=109) and Step-jump group(n=17). The clinical indicators and prognosis of each group were observed and analyzed by ANOVA,t-test,χ2 test or Fisher exact test,respectively. Results: There was no significant difference in mortality, complication rate and complication grade in each type of IPN(all P>0.05). Compared with other types of patients, the length of stay (69(40)days vs. 19(19)days) and hospitalization expenses(323 000(419 000)yuan vs. 60 000(78 000)yuan) were significantly increased in Type Ⅳ IPN(Z=-4.041, -3.972; both P<0.01). The incidence of postoperative residual infection of Type Ⅳ IPN was significantly higher than that of other types (χ2=16.350,P<0.01). There was no significant difference in the mortality of patients with different types of IPN between different treatment groups. The length of stay and hospitalization expenses of patients in the Step-up group were significantly less than those in the Step-jump group(19(20)days vs. 33(35)days, Z=-2.052, P=0.040;59 000(80 000)yuan vs. 122 000(109 000)yuan,Z=-2.317,P=0.020). Among the patients in Type Ⅳ IPN, the hospitalization expenses of Step-up group was significantly higher than that of Step-jump group(330 000(578 000)yuan vs. 141 000 yuan,Z=-2.000,P=0.046). The incidence of postoperative residual infection of Step-up group(17.4%(19/109)) was significantly lower than that of Step-jump group(10/17)(χ2=11.980, P=0.001). Conclusions: Type Ⅳ IPN is more serious than the other three types. It causes longer length of stay and more hospitalization expenses. The step-up approach is safe and effective in the treatment of IPN. However, for infected lesions which are deep in place,difficult to reach by conventional drainage methods, or mainly exhibit "dry necrosis", choosing the step-jump approach is a more positive choice.

Contemporary Surgical Management of Pancreatic Necrosis.

Importance: For decades, infected or symptomatic pancreatic necrosis was managed by open surgical necrosectomy, an approach that has now been largely supplanted by an array of techniques referred to as the step-up approach. Observations: This review describes the evidence base behind the step-up approach, when to use the different techniques, and their technical basics. The most common treatment strategies are included: percutaneous drainage, video-assisted retroperitoneal debridement, sinus tract endoscopy, endoscopic transgastric necrosectomy, and surgical transgastric necrosectomy. Also included is the evidence base around management of common complications that can occur during step-up management, such as hemorrhage, intestinal fistula, and thrombosis, in addition to associated issues that can arise during step-up management, such as the need for cholecystectomy and disconnected pancreatic duct syndrome. Conclusions and Relevance: The treatment strategies highlighted in this review are those most commonly used during step-up management, and this review is designed as a guide to the evidence base underlying these strategies, as surgeons tailor their therapeutic approach to individual patients.

Dynamics of Serum Procalcitonin Can Predict Outcome in Patients of Infected Pancreatic Necrosis: A Prospective Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Timely intervention can alter outcome in patients of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) but lacks adequate biomarker. Role of serum procalcitonin (PCT) in the management of IPN is understudied, and hence, this study was planned. METHODOLOGY: All patients of acute pancreatitis with IPN without prior intervention were included. Baseline demographic, radiological and laboratory parameters were documented. PCT was measured at baseline, prior to intervention, and thereafter every 72 h. Patients were grouped into those having baseline PCT < 1.0 ng/mL and those with PCT ≥ 1.0 ng/mL and various outcome measures were compared. RESULTS: Of the 242 patients screened, 103 cases (66 males; 64.1%) with IPN were grouped into 2: PCT < 1.0 ng/mL (n = 29) and PCT ≥ 1.0 ng/mL (n = 74). Patients with baseline PCT ≥ 1.0 ng/mL had significantly more severe disease scores. 16 out of 19 patients with rise in PCT on day-7 post-intervention expired. PCT ≥ 1.0 ng/mL group had higher need for ICU (p = 0.001) and mortality (p = 0.044). PCT > 2.25 ng/mL (aOR 22.56; p = 0.013) at baseline and failure in reduction of PCT levels to < 60% of baseline at day-7 post-intervention (aOR 53.76; p = 0.001) were significant mortality predictors. CONCLUSION: Baseline PCT > 1.0 ng/mL is associated with poor outcome. PCT > 2.25 ng/mL and failure in reduction of PCT levels to < 60% of its baseline at day-7 post-intervention can identify high-mortality risk patients.

Predictors of poor outcomes after cholecystectomy in gallstone pancreatitis: NSQIP analysis of 30-day morbidity and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Contemporary nationwide outcomes of gallstone pancreatitis (GSP) managed by cholecystectomy at the index hospitalization are limited. This study aims to define the rate of 30-day morbidity and mortality and identify associated perioperative risk factors in patients undergoing cholecystectomy for GSP. METHODS: Patients from the ACS-NSQIP database with GSP without pancreatic necrosis, who underwent cholecystectomy during the index hospitalization from 2017 to 2019 were selected. Factors associated with 30-day morbidity and mortality were analyzed. RESULTS: Of the 4021 patients identified, 1375 (34.5%) were male, 2891 (71.9%) were White, 3923 (97.6%) underwent laparoscopic surgery, and 52.4 years (SD ± 18.9) was the mean age. There were 155 (3.8%) patients who developed morbidity and 15 (0.37%) who died within 30 days of surgery. In bivariate regression analysis, both 30-day morbidity and mortality were associated with older age, elevated pre-operative BUN, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, acute kidney injury, and dyspnea. ASA of I or II and laparoscopic surgery were protective against 30-day morbidity and mortality. In multivariable regression analysis, factors independently associated with increased 30-day morbidity included preoperative SIRS/sepsis [OR: 1.68 (95% CI: 1.01-2.79), p = 0.048], and age [OR: 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01-1.04), p = 0.001]. Factors associated with increased 30-day mortality included tobacco use [OR: 8.62 (95% CI: 2.11-35.19), p = 0.003] and age [OR: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.04-1.17), p = 0.002]. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with GSP without pancreatic necrosis can undergo cholecystectomy during the index admission with very low risk of 30-day morbidity or mortality.

[Transfistulous endoscopic sequestrectomy in the treatment of infected pancreatic necrosis]. / Sposob chresfistul'noi videoskopicheskoi nekrsekvestrektomii v lechenii infitsirovannogo pankreonekroza.

OBJECTIVE: To develop an effective minimally invasive method for the treatment of infected pancreatic necrosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: There were 168 patients with infected pancreatic necrosis who were treated at the Regional Clinical Hospital No. 2 between 2011 and 2018. Eighty-seven (51.8%) patients underwent primary drainage with large-diameter double-lumen drains 28-32 Fr, and original technique of transfistulous endoscopic sequestrectomy was used. Puncture-drainage interventions with transfistulous endoscopic sequestrectomy were used in 23 (26.4%) patients with local and 64 (73.6%) patients with widespread purulent-necrotic parapancreatitis. RESULTS: Percutaneous channels are accesses to purulent-necrotic cavity and used for transfistulous endoscopic sequestrectomy. This procedure was performed 98 times. Time of primary sanitation in patients with 3 accesses in omental bursa was significantly less compared to 2 accesses (62±4.3 vs. 89±8.2 min, p<0.05). In case of repeated sanitation, time of intervention did not depend on the number of accesses. Incidence of local complications was 9.1%, extra-abdominal complications - 19.4%. Mortality rate was 12.6%. CONCLUSION: Original technique of transfistulous endoscopic sequestrectomy increases efficiency of sanitation of infected parapancreatitis, improves treatment outcomes and reduces mortality to 12.3%.

Interventional strategies in infected necrotizing pancreatitis: Indications, timing, and outcomes.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is one of the most common gastrointestinal diseases and remains a life-threatening condition. Although AP resolves to restitutio ad integrum in approximately 80% of patients, it can progress to necrotizing pancreatitis (NP). NP is associated with superinfection in a third of patients, leading to an increase in mortality rate of up to 40%. Accurate and early diagnosis of NP and associated complications, as well as state-of-the-art therapy are essential to improve patient prognoses. The emerging role of endoscopy and recent trials on multidisciplinary management of NP established the "step-up approach". This approach starts with endoscopic interventions and can be escalated to other interventional and ultimately surgical procedures if required. Studies showed that this approach decreases the incidence of new multiple-organ failure as well as the risk of interventional complications. However, the optimal interventional sequence and timing of interventional procedures remain controversial. This review aims to summarize the indications, timing, and treatment outcomes for infected NP and to provide guidance on multidisciplinary decision-making.

Pseudoaneurysm of the cystic artery after acute necrotizing pancreatitis.

A 35-year-old woman, chronic alcoholic, was admitted for an attack of acute, necrotizing pancreatitis. Antibiotics and percutaneous drainage failed to control the septic status and the pancreatic collection. Open surgery allowed a successful necrosectomy and drainage. However, a control CT scan before removal of drains showed a 1 cm diameter pseudoaneurysm of the cystic artery, not present at previous abdominal imaging. A redo laparotomy was performed followed by cholecystectomy with en bloc resection of the pseudoaneurysm and a second look of the peripancreatic area. The patient made an uneventful recovery and was discharged on postoperative day 5. Pseudoaneurysms of the cystic artery after acute necrotizing pancreatitis are very rare. Percutaneous embolization is effective in controlling the pseudoaneurysm, but requires subsequent cholecystectomy within a short delay, due to the risk of gangrene of the gallbladder requiring a further, emergency surgical treatment. Open resection of the pseudoaneurysm en bloc with cholecystectomy appears, therefore, an appropriate treatment of this rare condition. KEY WORDS: Cystic artery, Pancreatitis, Pseudoaneurysm.

Identification of early predictors for infected necrosis in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: In acute pancreatitis, secondary infection of pancreatic necrosis is a complication that mostly necessitates interventional therapy. A reliable prediction of infected necrotizing pancreatitis would enable an early identification of patients at risk, which however, is not possible yet. METHODS: This study aims to identify parameters that are useful for the prediction of infected necrosis and to develop a prediction model for early detection. We conducted a retrospective analysis from the hospital information and reimbursement data system and screened 705 patients hospitalized with diagnosis of acute pancreatitis who underwent contrast-enhanced computed tomography and additional diagnostic puncture or drainage of necrotic collections. Both clinical and laboratory parameters were analyzed for an association with a microbiologically confirmed infected pancreatic necrosis. A prediction model was developed using a logistic regression analysis with stepwise inclusion of significant variables. The model quality was tested by receiver operating characteristics analysis and compared to single parameters and APACHE II score. RESULTS: We identified a total of 89 patients with necrotizing pancreatitis, diagnosed by computed tomography, who additionally received biopsy or drainage. Out of these, 59 individuals had an infected necrosis. Eleven parameters showed a significant association with an infection including C-reactive protein, albumin, creatinine, and alcoholic etiology, which were independent variables in a predictive model. This model showed an area under the curve of 0.819, a sensitivity of 0.692 (95%-CI [0.547-0.809]), and a specificity of 0.840 (95%-CI [0.631-0.947]), outperforming single laboratory markers and APACHE II score. Even in cases of missing values predictability was reliable. CONCLUSION: A model consisting of a few single blood parameters and etiology of pancreatitis might help for differentiation between infected and non-infected pancreatic necrosis and assist medical therapy in acute necrotizing pancreatitis.

[Treatment choices for infected pancreatic necrosis:surgery debridement or endoscopy drainage?]

Infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is a crucial reason for the poor prognosis of patients with acute pancreatitis,which is complicated and difficult to predict the outcomes. Surgery is an important way to cure IPN,and "step-up approach" is the mainstream mode of IPN treatment. In the era of minimally invasive surgery,the full course endoscopic treatment of IPN has been gradually hot and achieved good outcomes as endoscopic technology' improvement. However,it is controversial that whether technique is better for IPN by surgery debridement or endoscopy drainage,and there is no consensus on the scope of applicability and the timing of intervention. The paper aims to explore the intervention methods,indications and timing of endoscopic and surgical treatment of IPN and elaborate the selection strategies of them in clinical practice,so as to develop individualized treatment options,accurately implement minimally invasive intervention and improve the prognosis.