The presence of symptoms within 6 months after COVID-19: a single-center longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Characterizing the post-COVID health conditions is helpful to direct patients to appropriate healthcare. AIMS: To describe the presence of symptoms in COVID-19 patients within 6 months after diagnosis and to investigate the associated factors in terms of reporting symptoms. METHODS: Data of DEU-COVIMER (a telephone interview-based COVID-19 follow-up center established in a tertiary care hospital) was analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA positive participants aged ≥ 18 years from November 1st, 2020, to May 31st, 2021. Symptom frequencies were stratified by demographic and clinical characteristics at one, three, and 6 months after diagnosis. With the patients who had symptoms at baseline, generalized estimating equations were applied to identify the factors associated with reporting of symptoms. RESULTS: A total of 5610 patients agreed to participate in the study. Symptom frequency was 37.2%, 21.8%, and 18.2% for the first, third, and sixth months. Tiredness/fatigue, muscle or body aches, and dyspnea/difficulty breathing were the most common symptoms in all time frames. In multivariate analysis, older age, female gender (odds ratio OR 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.57-1.93), bad economic status (OR 1.37, 1.14-1.65), current smoking (OR 1.15, 1.02-1.29), being fully vaccinated before COVID-19 (OR 0.53, 0.40-0.72), having more health conditions (≥ 3 conditions, OR 1.78, 1.33-2.37), having more symptoms (> 5 symptoms, OR 2.47, 2.19-2.78), and hospitalization (intensive care unit, OR 2.18, 1.51-3.14) were associated with reporting of symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies risk factors for patients who experience post-COVID-19 symptoms. Healthcare providers should appropriately allocate resources prioritizing the patients who would benefit from post-COVID rehabilitation.

Impact of trends and gender disparity in obesity on future type 2 diabetes in Turkey: a mathematical modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Using a previously developed and validated mathematical model, we predicted future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and major modifiable risk factors (obesity, physical inactivity and smoking) stratified by age and sex in Turkey up to the year 2050. METHODS: Our deterministic compartmental model fitted nationally representative demographic and risk factor data simultaneously for Turkish adults (aged 20-79) between 1997 and 2017, then estimated future trends. Our novel approach explored the impact of future obesity trends on these projections, specifically modelling (1) a gradual fall in obesity in women after the year 2020 until it equalled the age-specific levels seen in men and (2) cessation of the rise in obesity after 2020. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence is projected to rise from an estimated 14.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 12.8% to 16.0%) in 2020 to 18.4% (95% UI 16.9% to 20.9%) by 2050; 19.7% in women and 17.2% in men by 2050; reflecting high levels of obesity (39.7% for women and 22.0% for men in 2050). Overall, T2DM prevalence could be reduced by about 4% if obesity stopped rising after 2020 or by 12% (22% in women) if obesity prevalence among women could be lowered to equal that of men. The higher age-specific obesity prevalence among women resulted in 2 076 040 additional women developing T2DM by the year 2050. CONCLUSION: T2DM is common in Turkey and will remain so. Interventions and policies targeting the high burden of obesity (and low physical activity levels), particularly in women, could significantly impact future disease burdens.

Evaluating the Relationship between Diabetes and Cancer in a Cohort.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Epidemiological studies indicate that the risk of several types of cancer is high in diabetic patients. The aim of this study is to evaluate the association between diabetes and diabetes related cancers in a cohort design. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The baseline survey was conducted as a community screening programme from 2007 to 2009 in a population over 30 years of age. Diabetes definition was based on fasting blood glucose level ≥ 126 mg/dl and self-reported diabetes history. Data on incident cancer cases and pathological types were obtained from the Izmir Cancer Registry between 2007-2013. Odds ratios (OR) were estimated for the relationship between diabetes and diabetes-related cancer types for men and women separately and adjusted for BMI and age. Odds Ratio and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using logistic regression models in IBM SPSS Statistics 24.0. RESULTS: Data from 10,375 women (65.4%) and 5,494 men (34.6%) who did not declare any cancer in 2007 were evaluated. The cumulative incidence of diabetes related cancers was 2,293 per 100,000 in men and 1,455 per 100,000 in women. Total diabetes related cancer incidence was higher in diabetics (3,770 per 100,000) than nondiabetics (2,109 per 100,000) in men. CONCLUSION: There was no statistically significant association between diabetes and cancers. The analyses can be repeated in the future when the cohort gets older and more incident cases of cancers occur.
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Health-related quality of life and perceived health status of Turkish population.

PURPOSE: This study was conducted to assess the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and perceived health status of the Turkish population. METHODS: The data came from a nationwide survey, which was conducted by Ministry of Health on prevalence and risk factors for chronic diseases in Turkey, with a representative random sample of 18,477 people aged ≥ 15 years from Turkey. Each family physician invited two individuals selected from their registered population to the Family Health Center, conducted the survey by face to face interviews using an electronic form. HRQOL was determined using EQ-5D-3L scale. RESULTS: In Turkish population, each four women out of 10, two men out of 10 have problems in pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression dimensions of the scale; three women out of 10, one man out of 10 have some or severe problems in mobility. Proportion of people without health problems (health state 11,111) were 64,1% in men, 40,7% in women. The mean VAS score for males was 71.5 ± 0.2 (95% CI 70.9-72.1), 66.4 ± 0.2 (95% CI 65.8-66.9) for females (p < 0.05).The most important determinants of having a problem in any of the five dimensions are age, gender, education, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, stroke, alzheimer, cancer, renal failure. The OR of having some or severe problems in any dimensions was 4.6 (95% CI 38-5.4) for over 65-74 and 7.5 (95% CI 5.8-9.6) for over 75 compared to 15-24 age group. CONCLUSIONS: The perceived health level and HRQOL is worse in women, in older age groups, in people from lower socioeconomical status.

Protective effects of dexmedetomidine and remote ischemic preconditioning on renal ischemia reperfusion injury in rats.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of remote ischemic preconditioning (RIPC) and dexmedetomidine as pharmacological conditioning in a rat renal ischemia/reperfusion (IR) injury model. METHODS: Total of 28 male Wistar Albino rats weighing 250 to 300 g were divided into 4 equal groups. Group I (Sham; n=7): Laparotomy and renal pedicle dissection were performed, and the rats were observed under anesthesia without any intervention. Group II (IR; n=7): Following laparotomy and 45 minutes of left renal pedicle occlusion, 4 hours of reperfusion was performed. Group III (IR+D; n=7): Following laparotomy and ischemia, dexmedetomidine was administrated intraperitoneally (100 µg/kg) at fifth minute of reperfusion. Group IV (RIPC+IR; n=7): Under anesthesia, 3 cycles of ischemic preconditioning were applied to the left hind leg, and after 5 minutes, renal IR was performed. All rats were sacrificed after the left kidney was processed for conventional histomorphology. RESULTS: Total histomorphological renal injury score was significantly lower in the Sham group compared with the other groups (p<0.01). Total renal injury score of IR group was significantly higher than IR+D and RIPC+IR groups (p<0.01). There was no significant difference in the total renal injury score between the dexmedetomidine and RIPC groups (p=0.89). CONCLUSION: In the present study, it was demonstrated histomorphologically that both dexmedetomidine and RIPC decreased renal IR injury significantly. In addition, no significant difference was found between dexmedetomidine and RIPC groups.

Potential benefits of healthy food and lifestyle policies for reducing coronary heart disease mortality in Turkish adults by 2025: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking, physical activity levels, dietary salt, saturated fat intake, mean body mass index (BMI) levels, diabetes prevalence and fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Turkey for year 2025. DESIGN: A CHD mortality model previously developed and validated in Turkey was extended to predict potential trends in CHD mortality from 2008 to 2025. SETTING: Using risk factor trends data from recent surveys as a baseline, we modelled alternative evidence-based future risk factor scenarios (modest/ideal scenarios). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for uncertainties. SUBJECT: Projected populations in 2025 (aged 25-84) of 54 million in Turkey. RESULTS: Assuming lower mortality, modest policy changes in risk factors would result in ∼25 635 (range: 20 290-31 125) fewer CHD deaths in the year 2025; 35.6% attributed to reductions in salt consumption, 20.9% to falls in diabetes, 14.6% to declines in saturated fat intake and 13.6% to increase in F&V intake. In the ideal scenario, 45 950 (range: 36 780-55 450) CHD deaths could be prevented in 2025. Again, 33.2% of this would be attributed to reductions in salt reduction, 19.8% to increases in F&V intake, 16.7% to reductions in saturated fat intake and 14.0% to the fall in diabetes prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Only modest risk factor changes in salt, saturated/unsaturated fats and F&V intake could prevent around 16 000 CHD deaths in the year 2025 in Turkey, even assuming mortality continues to decline. Implementation of population-based, multisectoral interventions to reduce salt and saturated fat consumption and increase F&V consumption should be scaled up in Turkey.

Determinants of Breast and Cervical Cancer Screening Uptake Among Women in Turkey.

The aim of the study was to assess the influence of sociodemographic characteristics on breast and cervical cancer screening among women 30 years and older in Turkey. We used data from the National Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Survey conducted by the Ministry of Health in 2011. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association of sociodemographic factors, lifestyle variables, and cancer screening. Overall, 22.0% of women ever had a Pap smear test for cervical cancer screening and 19.0% ever had a mammography for breast cancer screening(n = 6846). Individuals with a university degree, social security, doing moderate physical activity, and consuming 5 portions of fruit or vegetable/day were more likely to receive Pap smear test and mammography. Residing in the eastern region and living in rural area was associated with lower likelihood of receiving both types of screening.

Contrasting cardiovascular mortality trends in Eastern Mediterranean populations: Contributions from risk factor changes and treatments.

BACKGROUND: Middle income countries are facing an epidemic of non-communicable diseases, especially coronary heart disease (CHD). We used a validated CHD mortality model (IMPACT) to explain recent trends in Tunisia, Syria, the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and Turkey. METHODS: Data on populations, mortality, patient numbers, treatments and risk factor trends from national and local surveys in each country were collated over two time points (1995-97; 2006-09); integrated and analysed using the IMPACT model. RESULTS: Risk factor trends: Smoking prevalence was high in men, persisting in Syria but decreasing in Tunisia, oPt and Turkey. BMI rose by 1-2 kg/m(2) and diabetes prevalence increased by 40%-50%. Mean systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels increased in Tunisia and Syria. Mortality trends: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates rose by 20% in Tunisia and 62% in Syria. Much of this increase (79% and 72% respectively) was attributed to adverse trends in major risk factors, occurring despite some improvements in treatment uptake. CHD mortality rates fell by 17% in oPt and by 25% in Turkey, with risk factor changes accounting for around 46% and 30% of this reduction respectively. Increased uptake of community treatments (drug treatments for chronic angina, heart failure, hypertension and secondary prevention after a cardiac event) accounted for most of the remainder. DISCUSSION: CHD death rates are rising in Tunisia and Syria, whilst oPt and Turkey demonstrate clear falls, reflecting improvements in major risk factors with contributions from medical treatments. However, smoking prevalence remains very high in men; obesity and diabetes levels are rising dramatically.

Estimating the potential contribution of stroke treatments and preventative policies to reduce the stroke and ischemic heart disease mortality in Turkey up to 2032: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke and Ischemic Heart Diseases (IHD) are the main cause of premature deaths globally, including Turkey. There is substantial potential to reduce stroke and IHD mortality burden; particularly by improving diet and health behaviours at the population level. Our aim is to estimate and compare the potential impact of ischemic stroke treatment vs population level policies on ischemic stroke and IHD deaths in Turkey if achieved like other developed countries up to 2022 and 2032. METHODS: We developed a Markov model for the Turkish population aged >35 years. The model follows the population over a time horizon of 10 and 20 years. We modelled seven policy scenarios: a baseline scenario, three ischemic stroke treatment improvement scenarios and three population level policy intervention scenarios (based on target reductions in dietary salt, transfat and unsaturated fat intake, smoking prevalence and increases in fruit and vegetable consumption). Parameter uncertainty was explored by including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, we forecast that approximately 655,180 ischemic stroke and IHD deaths (306,500 in men; 348,600 in women) may occur in the age group of 35-94 between 2012 and 2022 in Turkey. Feasible interventions in population level policies might prevent approximately 108,000 (62,580-326,700) fewer stroke and IHD deaths. This could result in approximately a 17% reduction in total stroke and IHD deaths in 2022. Approximately 32%, 29%, 11% and 6% of that figure could be attributed to a decreased consumption of transfat, dietary salt, saturated fats and fall in smoking prevalence and 22% could be attributed to increased fruit and vegetable consumption. Feasible improvements in ischemic stroke treatment could prevent approximately 9% fewer ischemic stroke and IHD deaths by 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling study suggests that effective and evidence-based food policies at the population level could massively contribute to reduction in ischemic stroke and IHD mortality in a decade and deliver bigger gains compared to healthcare based interventions for primary and secondary prevention.

Cardiovascular risk factor trends in the Eastern Mediterranean region: evidence from four countries is alarming.

OBJECTIVES: Many Eastern Mediterranean countries are undergoing dramatic socioeconomic, demographic and life style changes and face noncommunicable disease (NCD) epidemics. We evaluated recent trends in major NCD risk factors in occupied Palestinian territories (OPT), Turkey, Syria and Tunisia. METHODS: We searched published and unpublished sources for systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes, smoking, body mass index (BMI), and cholesterol trends for both men and women aged 35-84 in each country from 1995 to 2009. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence was stable over time in Tunisia and Syria, but decreasing in Turkey (annual change -0.9%) and OPT (annual change -0.7%). Mean BMI (annual change of 0.1% for Turkey, 0.2% for OPT and Tunisia and 0.3% in Syria) and diabetes (annual change of 0.3% for Turkey, 0.4% for OPT and Tunisia and 0.7% in Syria) prevalence increased in each country. SBP levels increased slightly in Tunisia and Syria but decreased in OPT and Turkey. CONCLUSIONS: Recent risk factor trends are worrying. Good quality data on the extent and determinants of NCDs are essential to respond the changing health needs of populations with burgeoning NCD epidemics.

Determinants of inpatient costs of angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, and heart failure in a university hospital setting in Turkey.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the correlates of in-hospital costs for angina pectoris (AP), myocardial infarction (MI), and heart failure (HF) in a university hospital setting. METHODS: This is a retrospective cost-of-illness study using data from the records of patients who were admitted with AP, MI, or HF to Dokuz Eylül University Hospital during 2008. Direct medical costs were calculated from the Social Security Institute perspective using a bottom-up approach. Socio-demographic and clinical information was abstracted from patient files. Costs were presented in Turkish lira (TL). A generalized linear model was used in the multivariate analysis. RESULTS: We included 337 in-patients in total in the study. AP was present in 26.4% (n=89), MI was present in 55.8% (n=188), and HF was present in 17.8% (n=60) of patients. MI was the most costly disease (2760 TL), followed by HF (2350 TL) and AP (1881 TL). The largest proportion of the total cost was formed by medical interventions (27.5%), followed by surgery (22.2%). Presence of DM, smoking, diagnosis of MI, HF, need for intensive care, and resulting in death were strong predictors of treatment costs. CONCLUSION: Both preadmission characteristics of patients (diabetes mellitus, smoking, use of anti-aggregant before admission) and in-patient characteristics (diagnosis, coronary artery bypass grafting, intensive care need, death) predicted the hospital cost of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) independently. Our results may be used as input for health-economic models and economic evaluations to support the decision-making of reimbursement and the cost-effectiveness of public health interventions in healthcare.

Estimating diabetes prevalence in Turkey in 2025 with and without possible interventions to reduce obesity and smoking prevalence, using a modelling approach.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence and the number of people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in 2025 in Turkey and to evaluate the impact of possible policy options on T2DM prevalence. METHODS: We developed a model to predict future prevalence of T2DM using trend data for adults aged 25-74 in Turkey from 1997 to 2025. The model integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate the future T2DM prevalence using a Markov approach. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence was 7.5% (95% CI: 6.0-9.0%) in 1997 increasing to 16.2% (95% CI: 15.5-21.1%) in 2010. The forecasted prevalence for 2025 was 31.5% (28.6% in men and 35.1% in women). If obesity prevalence declines by 10% and smoking decreases by 20% in 10 years from 2010, a 10% relative reduction in diabetes prevalence (1,655,213 individuals) could be achieved by 2025. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge, and our model predicts that its burden will increase significantly over the next two decades. Tackling obesity and other diabetes risk factors needs urgent action.

Waist:height ratio: a superior index in estimating cardiovascular risks in Turkish adults.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the best anthropometric measurement among waist: height ratio (WHtR), BMI, waist:hip ratio (WHR) and waist circumference (WC) associated with high CHD risk in adults and to define the optimal cut-off point for WHtR. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional study. SETTING: Balcova, Izmir, Turkey. SUBJECTS: Individuals (n 10 878) who participated in the baseline survey of the Heart of Balcova Project. For each participant, 10-year coronary event risk (Framingham risk score) was calculated using data on age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, serum lipids and diabetes status. Participants who had risk higher than 10 % were defined as 'medium or high risk'. RESULTS: Among the participants, 67·7% were female, 38·2% were obese, 24·5% had high blood pressure, 9·2% had diabetes, 1·5% had undiagnosed diabetes (≥126 mg/dl), 22·0% had high total cholesterol and 45·9% had low HDL-cholesterol. According to Framingham risk score, 32·7% of them had a risk score higher than 10 %. Those who had medium or high risk had significantly higher mean BMI, WHtR, WHR and WC compared with those at low risk. According to receiver-operating characteristic curves, WHtR was the best and BMI was the worst indicator of CHD risk for both sexes. For both men and women, 0·55 was the optimal cut-off point for WHtR for CHD risk. CONCLUSIONS: BMI should not be used alone for evaluating obesity when estimating cardiometabolic risks. WHtR was found to be a successful measurement for determining cardiovascular risks. A cut-off point of '0·5' can be used for categorizing WHtR in order to target people at high CHD risk for preventive actions.

Prevalence of low ankle brachial index and relationship with cardiovascular risk factors in a Western urban population in Turkey.

We determined the prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors in an urban population age ≥30 years in Turkey and assessed the impact of incorporating ankle brachial index (ABI) measurement with coronary heart disease risk calculations to the risk reclassification of individuals. The sample was drawn from 4600 participants of Balcova Heart Study. The prevalence of low ABI (<0.9) was 6.3%. Current smoking (odds ratio [OR]: 5.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.85-13.88), cardiovascular disease history (OR: 6.83, 95% CI: 3.00-15.53), hypertension (OR: 2.58, 95% CI: 1.06-6.33), diabetes (OR: 3.25, 95% CI: 1.51-6.98), and high waist circumference (OR: 2.24, 95% CI: 1.02-4.94) were positively associated with prevalent PAD. When ABI measurement was taken into account, 3.5% of low or intermediate risk patients were reclassified as high risk. Screening individuals who have one of these risk factors with ABI can help reclassifying individuals toward the high-risk category.

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Turkey between 1995 and 2008.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Turkey since the early 1990s. Our study aimed to determine how much of the CHD mortality decrease in Turkey between 1995 and 2008 could be attributed to temporal trends in major risk factors and how much to advances in medical and surgical treatments. METHODS: The validated IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to combine and analyse data on uptake and effectiveness of CHD treatments and risk factor trends in Turkey in adults aged 35-84 years between 1995 and 2008.Data sources were identified, searched and appraised on population, mortality and major CHD risk factors for adults those aged 35-84 years. Official statistics, electronic databases, national registers, surveys and published trials were screened from 1995 onwards. RESULTS: Between 1995 and 2008, coronary heart disease mortality rates in Turkey decreased by 34% in men and 28% in women 35 years and over. This resulted in 35,720 fewer deaths in 2008.Approximately 47% of this mortality decrease was attributed to treatments in individuals (including approximately 16% to secondary prevention, 3% angina treatments, 9% to heart failure treatments, 5% to initial treatments of acute myocardial infarction, and 5% to hypertension treatments) and approximately 42% was attributable to population risk factor reductions (notably blood pressure 29%; smoking 27%; and cholesterol 1%). Adverse trends were seen for obesity and diabetes (potentially increasing mortality by approximately 11% and 14% respectively). The model explained almost 90% of the mortality fall. CONCLUSION: Reduction in major cardiovascular risk factors explained approximately 42% and improvements in medical and surgical treatments explained some 47% of the CHD mortality fall. These findings emphasize the complimentary value of primary prevention and evidence-based medical treatments in controlling coronary heart disease.

High prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a Western urban Turkish population: a community-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the largest cause of morbidity and mortality in Turkey and in the World. Heart of Balçova Project is a community- based health promotion project that aims to reduce CVD incidence and prevalence through risk factor modification in the individual and population level. This paper presents results of the baseline survey that aimed to define CVD risk factors and risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) in the Balçova population. METHODS: The study population included 36,187 people over 30 years of age residing in Balçova in 2007. Individuals were interviewed at their homes. Anthropometrics and blood pressure were measured and in total 12914 fasting blood samples were collected for lipid and glucose analyses. CHD risk was estimated using Framingham risk equation. Student's t test, Chi-square for trend test and ANOVA were used to compare mean levels and percentages of risk factors between age groups and gender. RESULTS: In total 5552 men and 10528 women participated in the study. Smoking prevalence was 38.6% in men and 26.8% in women. The prevalence of obesity was 29.4% among men and 44.2% among women and obesity prevalence increased until the age group 75 years old. While 14.6% of men and 12.6% of women had diabetes, 39.8% of men and 41.8% of women had hypertension. The prevalence of high total cholesterol was 56.0% in men and 50.6% in women. Men had a higher risk of developing CHD compared to women in the following 10 years (13.4% vs 2.5%). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of preventable risk factors for CHD is very high in Balçova population. Community-based interventions should be planned and implemented targeting both the high-risk individuals and whole population.

Balcova heart study: rationale and methodology of the Turkish cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Turkey is facing increasing rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The study is designed to meet the growing need to obtain information about the recent status and trends of CVD risk factors and their impact on mortality. METHODS: Balcova heart study (BHS) is a prospective cohort study, focusing on reducing the CVD risk factors of people over 30 years old living in Balcova District, Izmir, Turkey. Information about risk factors, anthropometric and biochemical measurements was collected in community centers. Interventions were planned, based on the 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk and lifestyle characteristics with the collaboration of university and municipality. RESULTS: Mean age of the 16,080 participants was 52 years. The percentage of current smoking was 41.6 in men and 31.1 in women. One-third of the men were physically inactive. Hypertension was reported as 25% in men and 33% in women. CONCLUSIONS: The project is unique for being the first community-based cohort on CVD risk factors in a Turkish setting. This project will have a valuable contribution on not only determining CVD risks, but also incorporating interventions for prevention.

Comparing primary prevention with secondary prevention to explain decreasing coronary heart disease death rates in Ireland, 1985-2000.

BACKGROUND: To investigate whether primary prevention might be more favourable than secondary prevention (risk factor reduction in patients with coronary heart disease(CHD)). METHODS: The cell-based IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to integrate data for Ireland describing CHD patient numbers, uptake of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors, and the mortality benefits of these specific risk factor changes in CHD patients and in healthy people without recognised CHD. RESULTS: Between 1985 and 2000, approximately 2,530 fewer deaths were attributable to reductions in the three major risk factors in Ireland. Overall smoking prevalence declined by 14% between 1985 and 2000, resulting in about 685 fewer deaths (minimum estimate 330, maximum estimate 1,285) attributable to smoking cessation: about 275 in healthy people and 410 in known CHD patients. Population total cholesterol concentrations fell by 4.6%, resulting in approximately 1,300 (minimum estimate 1,115, maximum estimate 1,660) fewer deaths attributable to dietary changes(1,185 in healthy people and 115 in CHD patients) plus 305 fewer deaths attributable to statin treatment (45 in people without CHD and 260 in CHD patients). Mean population diastolic blood pressure fell by 7.2%, resulting in approximately 170 (minimum estimate 105, maximum estimate 300) fewer deaths attributable to secular falls in blood pressure (140 in healthy people and 30 in CHD patients), plus approximately 70 fewer deaths attributable to antihypertensive treatments in people without CHD. Of all the deaths attributable to risk factor falls, some 1,715 (68%) occurred in people without recognized CHD and 815(32%) in CHD patients. CONCLUSION: Compared with secondary prevention, primary prevention achieved a two-fold larger reduction in CHD deaths. Future national CHD policies should therefore prioritize nationwide interventions to promote healthy diets and reduce smoking.

Life-years-gained from population risk factor changes and modern cardiology treatments in Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in Ireland have halved since the mid-1980s, and adult life expectancy has also steadily improved. This study estimated the life-years-gained by CHD treatments and by changes in cardiovascular risk factor levels. METHODS: A previously validated Irish IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to integrate large amounts of data on (i) patient numbers, (ii) treatment uptake, (iii) risk factor trends, (iv) effectiveness of cardiology treatments and risk factor reductions, and (v) median survival in patients with and without CHD, all stratified by age and sex. Results were tested in rigorous sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: There were 3763 fewer CHD deaths than expected in 2000 compared with the base year, 1985. This resulted in approximately 44,060 life-years-gained among people aged 25-84. Specific medical and surgical treatments given in 2000 for CHD patients together gained approximately 14,505 life-years. Population changes in cholesterol and smoking levels accounted for some 32,705 life-years-gained, 66% from reductions in cholesterol alone. Adverse changes in obesity and diabetes resulted in a loss of approximately 3670 life-years. CONCLUSIONS: Use of modern cardiology treatments in Ireland from 1985 to 2000 gained many thousands of life-years. However, twice as many life-years were generated by relatively modest reductions in major risk factors. Effective policies, such as the promotion of healthy diets, and weight reduction, together with the recent nationwide workplace smoking ban, will be essential to maintain and further enhance health gain.

Mortality reductions in patients receiving exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation: how much can be attributed to cardiovascular risk factor improvements?

BACKGROUND: It is unclear how much of the reduction in cardiac mortality in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients with exercise training is the result of direct effects on the heart and coronary vasculature, or to indirect effects, via primary risk factors. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this article was to quantify the cardiac mortality benefits of exercise-based rehabilitation attributable to risk factor reductions versus the direct effects on the heart and vasculature. METHODS: The IMPACT coronary heart disease model was used to examine the reduction in cardiac mortality attributable to changes in risk factors from a meta-analysis of cardiac rehabilitation randomized, controlled trials. Patients were receiving rehabilitation following an acute myocardial infarction, angina pectoris or revascularization. Outcomes considered were primary risk factors (total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and smoking behaviour) and cardiac mortality. RESULTS: Nineteen exercise-only cardiac rehabilitation trials (including 2984 patients) were identified. Across these trials, exercise training reduced pooled cardiac mortality by 28% (relative risk, 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.55-0.95), with 30 fewer deaths than in the control group. Applying the CHD model, approximately 17 (58%) of these 30 fewer deaths were attributable to reductions in major cardiovascular risk factors: 7.1 deaths (minimum estimate 6.2, maximum estimate 9.5) attributable to an 18% reduction in smoking prevalence; 5.9 deaths (minimum -0.6, maximum 12.6) to a 0.11 mmol/l reduction in cholesterol, and 4.4 deaths (-1.0 minimum, 6.7 maximum) to a 2.0 mmHg reduction in systolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of the 28% reduction in cardiac mortality achieved with exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation may be attributed to reductions in major risk factors, particularly smoking.