Treatment response to durvalumab plus tremelimumab after progression with previous immune checkpoint inhibitor in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma.

Although immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) are used for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), it is unclear whether sequential ICI treatment-durvalumab plus tremelimumab (DT) after progression on atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (AB)-is effective for HCC. In this nationwide multicenter study, we aimed to investigate the effect of DT treatment based on the timing of treatment. A total of 85 patients receiving DT treatment were enrolled. The primary endpoint is treatment response at week 8 among patients receiving first-line DT treatment, those receiving second-line or later treatment without prior AB therapy, and those receiving second-line or later treatment with prior AB therapy. Objective response rates (ORRs) in patients with first-line treatment, second-line treatment without AB, and second-line treatment with prior AB were 44%, 54%, and 5%, respectively (p < 0.001). Similarly, disease control rates (DCRs) were 69%, 91%, and 26%, respectively (p < 0.001). ORR and DCR were significantly lower in patients with prior AB treatment. Progression free survival (PFS) was significantly shortened in patients receiving second-line therapy following prior AB treatment and an adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) in those patients for PFS, using first-line therapy as a reference, was 2.35 (1.1-5.1, p = 0.03). In conclusion, the impact of DT sequencing following AB treatment was limited. However, even after second-line treatment, the treatment effect can be equivalent to that of first-line treatment in cases with no history of AB treatment. Thus, prior treatment history should be taken into account when initiating DT treatment.

Change in Liver Function in Durvalumab Plus Tremelimumab Treatment for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Maintaining liver function throughout the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is crucial, yet the impact of durvalumab plus tremelimumab (DT) treatment on liver function is not well understood. This multicenter study aimed to examine the changes in liver function during DT treatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This nationwide multicenter study included 80 patients who received DT treatment for unresectable HCC. The primary outcome was changes in albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores at baseline, week 8, week 12, and at the time of progressive disease (PD). RESULTS: The median (interquartile range) ALBI scores at baseline, week 8, week 12, and the time of PD were -2.24 (-2.49 to -1.94), -2.13 (-2.51 to -1.86), -2.23 (-2.51 to - 1.77), and -2.06 (-2.53 to -1.72), respectively. No significant differences were observed at 8 weeks (p=0.06), at 12 weeks (p=0.4), and at PD (p=0.8) compared to baseline. Subgroup analyses were conducted for patients with an ALBI grade of 2 at baseline and for those who received DT treatment as a second-line or later treatment. No deterioration in liver function was observed at any time point in both analyses. CONCLUSION: DT treatment can maintain liver function throughout the treatment period. Maintaining liver function is crucial in managing HCC, and this is an advantage of using DT treatment as a first-line treatment for unresectable HCC.

ALBI score predicts morphological changes in esophageal varices following direct-acting antiviral-induced sustained virological response in patients with liver cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to clarify the morphological changes in esophageal varices after achieving sustained virological response (SVR) with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 243 patients underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy before DAA treatment and after achieving SVR. Morphological changes in esophageal varices were investigated using esophagogastroduodenoscopy. RESULTS: This study comprised 125 males and 118 females with a median age of 68 years. Esophageal varices at baseline were classified into no varix in 155 (63.8%), F1 in 59 (24.3%), F2 in 25 (10.3%) and F3 in 4 (1.6%) patients. The improvement, unchanged, and aggravation rates of esophageal varices after SVR were 11.9%, 73.3%, and 14.8%, respectively. High ALBI score at SVR12 was an independent factor associated with post-SVR esophageal varices aggravation (p = 0.045). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed a cut-off value of - 2.33 for ALBI score at SVR12 in predicting post-SVR esophageal varices aggravation. Of the 155 patients without esophageal varices at baseline, 17 developed de novo post-SVR esophageal varices. High ALBI score at SVR12 was a significant independent factor associated with de novo post-SVR esophageal varices (p = 0.046). ROC curve analysis revealed a cut-off value of - 2.65 for ALBI score at SVR12 in predicting de novo post-SVR esophageal varices. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with cirrhosis can experience esophageal varices aggravation or de novo esophageal varices, despite achieving SVR. In particular, patients with high ALBI score at SVR12 have a high likelihood of developing post-SVR esophageal varices aggravation or de novo post-SVR esophageal varices.

Usefulness of the Fibrosis-4 index and alanine aminotransferase at 1 year of nucleos(t)ide analog treatment for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients.

AIM: Nucleos(t)ide analogs do not completely prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B virus infection. This study aimed to evaluate the dynamics of a non-invasive liver fibrosis marker, the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, for predicting HCC development. METHODS: Among a total of 882 chronically hepatitis B virus infection-infected patients who were treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs, 472 patients without HCC history whose FIB-4 at baseline and 1 year of treatment was obtained were evaluated for the incidence of HCC. RESULTS: The median FIB-4 was 2.00 at baseline and was significantly reduced to 1.58 at 1 year (P < 0.001), but the reduction was small at 2 years or later. When a receiver operating characteristic analysis of FIB-4 was performed to predict HCC within 5 years, the area under the curve of FIB-4 at 1 year was higher than that at baseline (0.676 vs. 0.599). The HCC incidence was significantly higher in patients with FIB-4 ≥1.58 than in those with FIB-4 <1.58 (14.8% vs. 3.6% at 10 years, P < 0.001). Additionally, an abnormal alanine aminotransferase (≥31 U/L) at 1 year was an independent risk for HCC. When a fibrosis and alanine aminotransferase-1 (FAL-1) score was evaluated as an applicable number of FIB-4 ≥1.58, and alanine aminotransferase ≥31 as 0, 1, and 2, the HCC risk in patients with score 2 was significantly higher than in those with score 1 or score 0 (24.1% vs. 9.8% vs. 0.7% at 10 years, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: FIB-4 ≥1.58 and alanine aminotransferase ≥31 at 1 year of nucleos(t)ide analog was an independent risk factor for HCC development, and a score using these factors stratified the risk of HCC.

Necessity for surveillance for hepatocellualr carcinoma in older patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved sustained virological response.

Background and Aim: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in low-risk patients (annual incidence <1.5%) is not recommended per the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases guidelines. Because patients with chronic hepatitis C with non-advanced fibrosis who have achieved sustained virological response (SVR) have a low risk of HCC, HCC surveillance is not recommended for them. However, aging is a risk factor for HCC; threfore, the necessity for HCC surveillance in older patients with non-advanced fibrosis needs to be verified. Methods: This multicenter, prospective study enrolled 4993 patients with SVR (1998 patients with advanced fibrosis and 2995 patients with non-advanced fibrosis). The HCC incidence was examined with particular attention to age. Results: The 3-year incidence of HCC in patients with advanced and non-advanced fibrosis was 9.2% (95% CI: 7.8-10.9) and 2.9% (95% CI: 2.1-3.7), respectively. HCC incidence was significantly higher in patients with advanced fibrosis (P < 0.001). HCC incidence stratified by age and sex was investigated in patients with non-advanced fibrosis. The HCC incidence in the 18-49, 50s, 60s, 70s, and ≥80 age groups were 0.26, 1.3, 1.8, 1.7, and 2.9 per 100 person-years in men, and 0.00, 0.32, 0.58, 0.49, and 0.57 per 100 person-years in women, respectively. Conclusions: Male patients with non-advanced fibrosis aged ≥60 years have a higher risk of developing HCC and, thus, require HCC surveillance.

Effects on survival of the adverse event of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab for hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter study by the Japan Red Cross Liver Study Group.

This study aimed to describe the real-world efficacy and safety of the combination therapy of atezolizumab and bevacizumab (Atezo/Bev) for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This retrospective analysis of a multicenter registry cohort included 268 patients treated with Atezo/Bev. The incidence of adverse events (AE) and its impact on overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed. Of the 268 patients, 230 (85.8%) experienced AE. The median OS and PFS in the whole cohort were 462 and 239 days, respectively. The OS and PFS were not different in terms of AE, but they were significantly shorter in patients with increased bilirubin level and those with increased aspartate aminotransferase (AST) or alanine aminotransferase (ALT). Regarding increased bilirubin level, the hazard ratios (HRs) were 2.61 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-6.58, P = 0.042) and 2.85 (95% CI: 1.37-5.93, P = 0.005) for OS and PFS, respectively. Regarding increased AST or ALT, the HRs were 6.68 (95% CI: 3.22-13.84, P < 0.001) and 3.54 (95% CI: 1.83-6.86, P < 0.001) for OS and PFS, respectively. Contrarily, the OS was significantly longer in patients with proteinuria (HR: 0.46 [95% CI: 0.23-0.92], P = 0.027). Multivariate analysis confirmed that proteinuria (HR: 0.53 [95% CI: 0.25-0.98], P = 0.044) and increased AST or ALT (HR: 6.679 [95% CI: 3.223-13.84], P = 0.003) were independent risk factors for a shorter OS. Furthermore, analysis limited to cases who completed at least 4 cycles confirmed that increased AST or ALT and proteinuria were negative and positive factors for OS, respectively. In the real-world setting, increased AST or ALT and bilirubin level during Atezo/Bev treatment were found to have a negative impact on PFS and OS, whereas proteinuria had a positive impact on OS.

Usefulness of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in predicting progression and survival outcomes after atezolizumab-bevacizumab treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma.

AIM: We investigated pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) for predicting survival outcomes of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and determined the predictive ability of combined liver reserve-NLR. METHODS: This retrospective, multicenter study enrolled 242 patients receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab for unresectable HCC. Pretreatment NLR <2.56 was designated as the "low group" and NLR ≥2.56 as the "high group" (120 and 122 patients, respectively). Propensity score-matched analysis was undertaken between the low and high groups. RESULTS: In this cohort, the objective response and disease control rates were 20% and 72.5%, respectively, in the low group and 19.6% and 72.9%, respectively, in the high group. After matching, median progression-free survival (PFS) time was 283 and 167 days in the low and high groups, respectively (p = 0.022). Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥2.56 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-2.28; p = 0.028), modified albumin-bilirubin index (mALBI) grade 2b or 3 (HR 1.55; 95% CI, 1.05-2.29; p = 0.025), and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II ≥ 400 (HR 2.03; 95% CI, 1.36-3.02; p = 0.001) were significantly associated with PFS in univariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model. In cases involving mALBI grade 1 or 2a (n = 131), the median PFS time was not reached in the low group, whereas it was 210 days in the high group (p = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: Pretreatment NLR is a simple tool for routine measurement in clinical practice. It can predict PFS in patients with unresectable HCC treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, especially mALBI grade 1 or 2a.

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma at baseline and 1 year after initiation of nucleos(t)ide analog therapy for chronic hepatitis B.

Nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) cannot completely suppress the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study aimed to identify the risk factors for HCC development in naïve CHB patients treated with current NA. Patients receiving NA (n = 905) were recruited retrospectively from the 17 hospitals of the Japanese Red Cross Liver Study Group. All treatment-naïve patients had been receiving current NA continuously for more than 1 year until the end of the follow-up. We analyzed the accuracy of predictive risk score using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve. The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score was significantly improved by NA therapy (-0.171 ± 0.396; p < 0.001 at Week 48). A total of 72 (8.0%) patients developed HCC over a median follow-up of 6.2 (1.03-15.7) years. An independent predictive factor of HCC development was older age, cirrhosis, lower platelet counts at baseline and ALBI score, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at 1 year after NA therapy according to multivariate analysis. The accuracy was assessed using the PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, aMAP, APA-B, and REAL-B scores that included these factors. Discrimination was generally acceptable for these models. aMAP and REAL-B demonstrated high discrimination with 0.866/0.862 and 0.833/0.859 for 3- and 5-year prediction from the status of 1 year after NA therapy, respectively. Baseline age and platelet count, as well as ALBI and AFP one year after NA, were useful for stratifying carcinogenesis risk. The aMAP and REAL-B scores were validated with high accuracy in Japanese CHB patients.

Switching to Tenofovir Alafenamide Fumarate in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Who Had Detectable HBV DNA during Treatment with Entecavir.

Nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) suppress hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication, but the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma still remains. The presence of detectable HBV DNA in the serum during NA therapies for chronic hepatitis B patients has been reported to be associated with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. In this study, we investigated the antiviral effect of switching from entecavir (ETV) to tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) in chronic hepatitis B patients who had detectable HBV DNA in the serum at least once within a year. Among a total of 77 cases in 7 hospitals that switched NAs from ETV to TAF, 23 patients with detectable HBV DNA in a year before switching were analyzed. When the detection frequencies of HBV DNA in the 1st and 2nd years after switching to TAF were analyzed, they were significantly lower than those in the year before switching (68.8% vs. 34.1% for the 1st year and 21.3% for the 2nd year, P < 0.001 for both). The HBsAg decline tended to be larger after switching than before (-2.5% vs. -3.0% for 1st year and -3.1% for 2nd year), but the difference was not significant. One patient died of a cardiovascular event 11 months after the treatment switch, but no adverse effects due to TAF including renal function were observed. In conclusion, it was suggested that switching from ETV to TAF might be effective to suppress the HBV DNA level further in patients whose HBV DNA is detectable, even if at a very low level.

Optimal threshold of alpha-fetoprotein response in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma treated with atezolizumab and bevacizumab.

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response (relative decline in AFP) is associated with imaging response evaluated by response evaluation criteria in solid tumors ver1.1 (RECIST) and survival in treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the optimal threshold of AFP response is still unknown, especially in atezolizumab and bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) treatment. In this prospective multicenter study, we aimed to investigate an optimal threshold of AFP response in Atez/Bev treatment. Out of 284 patients with unresectable HCC who were treated with Atez/Bev, 91 patients with AFP ≥ 10 ng/ml were enrolled in the multicenter study. We investigated the relationship between various AFP response thresholds (relative decline ≥ 20%, ≥ 50%, and ≥ 75%) and treatment response and progression-free survival (PFS). An AFP relative decrease of ≥ 50% was associated with an overall response rate (ORR) with an odds ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 5.7 (1.9-17). Disease control rate (DCR) was associated with an AFP relative decrease of ≥ 20%, with a 100% positive predictive value and a 52.0% sensitivity. AFP relative decreases of ≥ 50% and ≥ 20% were significantly associated with PFS with a hazard ratio (HR) of 5.60 (95% CI: 1.6-19, p = 0.006) and a HR of 4.44 (95% CI: 1.9-10, p < 0.001), respectively. AFP response of ≥ 50% and ≥ 20% were related to ORR and DCR, respectively, and both of these responses were also associated with PFS. AFP can be used as a real-time monitor during Atez/Bev treatment and is helpful for treatment optimization.

General evaluation score for predicting the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with advanced liver fibrosis associated with hepatitis C virus genotype 1 or 2 after direct-acting antiviral therapy.

Background and Aim: To validate a composite predictive model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with advanced liver fibrosis associated with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) who have received direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy and achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). Methods: This study included 1258 patients with advanced liver fibrosis associated with HCV genotype 1, 2, or both. General evaluation score (GES), which is based on sex, age, fibrosis stage, albumin, and α-fetoprotein, was used as a composite predictive model. Results: There were 645 (51.3%) patients in the low-risk group, 228 (18.1%) in the intermediate-risk group, and 385 (30.6%) in the high-risk group based on GES categories. The 12-, 36-, and 60-month cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.7%, 5.3%, and 13.0%, respectively. Multivariable analysis with Cox proportional hazards models showed that male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 1.863; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.204-2.883), F4 fibrosis stage (HR, 3.199; 95% CI, 1.696-6.036), and albumin (HR, 0.489; 95% CI, 0.288-0.828) are independently associated with HCC development. The incidence of HCC differed significantly by GES-based risk category (P < 0.001). Cox proportional hazards models showed that, with the low-risk group as the referent, the HR for HCC development was 1.875 (95% CI, 1.000-3.514) in the intermediate-risk group and 2.819 (95% CI, 1.716-4.630) in the high-risk group. GES had better predictive ability for HCC development than fibrosis-4 index according to time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis. Conclusion: GES is useful for predicting HCC development in patients with advanced liver fibrosis after SVR.

Real-World Data on Ramucirumab Therapy including Patients Who Experienced Two or More Systemic Treatments: A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: The present study aimed to clarify the efficacy and safety of ramucirumab in a real-world setting, including patients who experienced two or more systemic treatments or whose hepatic reserve was deteriorated. METHODS: In total, 79 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) from 14 institutes throughout Japan were retrospectively analyzed. The response was evaluated using the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1, and AEs were recorded according to the Common Terminology Criteria for AEs (CTCAE) version 5.0. RESULTS: Median overall survival (OS) in the total cohort was 7.5 months (m). Median OS was 8.8 m in patients who were administered ramucirumab as a second-line treatment, while it was 7.3 m in third- or later-line treatment. Progression-free survival rates in the second- and third- or later-line therapies were 3.2 m and 3.2 m, respectively. The disease control rate (DCR) in the study was 43%. There were no statistically significant differences in DCR between the treatment courses. Regarding adverse events (AEs), the development of ascites was observed significantly more frequently in modified albumin-bilirubin (mALBI) 2b/3 patients than in mALBI 1/2a patients (54.5% vs. 25.0%, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Ramucirumab is useful as a second-line therapy and feasible as a third- or later-line treatment for HCC.

Non-Achievement of Alanine Aminotransferase Normalization Associated with the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma during Nucleos(t)ide Analogue Therapies: A Multicenter Retrospective Study.

Patients with a chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection who are treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) are still at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and it has been clinically questioned whether patients with a high risk of HCC can be identified efficiently. We aimed to clarify the risk factors associated with the development of HCC during NA therapies. A total of 611 chronically HBV-infected patients without a history of HCC, who were treated with NAs for more than 6 months (median 72 months), from 2000 to 2021, were included from 16 hospitals in the Tohoku district in Japan. Incidences of HCC occurrence were analyzed with clinical factors, including on-treatment responses. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) normalization, based on the criteria of three guidelines, was analyzed with other parameters, including the age−male−ALBI−platelets (aMAP) risk score. During the observation period, 48 patients developed HCC, and the cumulative HCC incidence was 10.6% at 10 years. Non-achievement of ALT normalization at 1 year of therapy was mostly associated with HCC development when ALT ≤ 30 U/L was used as the cut-off (cumulative incidence, 19.9% vs. 5.3% at 10 years, p < 0.001). The effectiveness of the aMAP risk score at the start of treatment was validated in this cohort. A combination of an aMAP risk score ≥ 50 and non-achievement of ALT normalization could stratify the risk of HCC significantly, and notably, there was no HCC development in 103 patients without these 2 factors. In conclusion, non-achievement of ALT normalization (≤30 U/L) at 1 year might be useful in predicting HCC during NA therapies and, in combination with the aMAP risk score, could stratify the risk more precisely.

Real-world long-term analysis of daclatasvir plus asunaprevir in patients with hepatitis C virus infection.

Background and Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the long-term clinical course of patients achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR) with daclatasvir plus asunaprevir (DCV/ASV) therapy. Methods: A total of 911 patients who achieved SVR with DCV/ASV were assessed. To evaluate pretreatment factors contributing to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after SVR, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in all patients, in those with preexisting HCC, and in those without preexisting HCC. We selected a low-risk group of HCC cases after SVR. Finally, we evaluated liver function after achieving SVR. Results: In multivariable analyses, male sex, older age, patients with a history of HCC treatment, excess alcohol use, lower albumin, and low platelet count remained significant in the overall group; male sex and low albumin remained significant in patients with a history of HCC treatment; and male sex, older age, excess alcohol use, low platelet count, high alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and high des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) remained significant in those without a history of HCC treatment. Patients who had not received treatment for HCC, females, those under 70 years of age, and those with platelet count ≥13 (×104/µL), AFP <6 ng/mL, and DCP <23 mAU/mL were at low risk of HCC. The process of liver function improvement was different according to the factors. Conclusions: The incidence rate of HCC, risk factors associated with HCC, group with very low risk of developing HCC, and the clinical course in a real-world long-term study were evaluated.

Efficacy of hepatitis C virus eradication after curative treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma and decreased hepatic functional reserve: A nationwide, multicentre study by the Japanese Red Cross Liver Study Group.

Improvements in the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence rate and survival have been frequently reported following virus eradication after hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related HCC cure. However, the efficacy of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy in patients who included those with advanced HCC and decreased hepatic functional reserve is unknown. A comparative examination was retrospectively conducted of 141 patients with hepatitis C who started DAA therapy within 1 year after undergoing curative HCC treatment and showed a sustained viral response (SVR) and 327 patients who underwent curative treatment for HCV-related HCC and did not subsequently receive antiviral therapy. Whether DAA therapy was given was identified as an independent factor related to both HCC recurrence and survival. Both the recurrence and survival rates improved significantly with DAA therapy in Child-Pugh (CP)-A, whereas no difference in the recurrence rate was seen with DAA therapy in CP-B. However, the survival rate was significantly higher in the DAA group in this class. Similarly, dividing the patients by the Milan criteria showed significant improvements in the recurrence rate and survival with DAA therapy in patients within the Milan criteria. Patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria showed no difference in recurrence rates, but the DAA group tended to have higher survival rates. Thus, DAA after curative therapy for HCC can be expected to improve survival in patients with advanced HCC or decreased hepatic functional reserve. HCV should be aggressively eradicated in all patients eligible for curative treatment of HCC.

A validation study of after direct-acting antivirals recommendation for surveillance score for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C virus infection who had received direct-acting antiviral therapy and achieved sustained virological response.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The pathogenic process underlying the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not yet clear in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) who have received direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy and achieved sustained virological response (SVR). This study validated a composite predictive model for HCC in these patients. METHODS: This study included 3058 patients in whom HCV was eradicated with DAA therapy. After DAAs recommendation for surveillance (ADRES) score, which is based on sex, FIB-4 index, and α-fetoprotein, was used as a composite predictive model for HCC development. RESULTS: The 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 0.9, 4.5, and 15.2%, respectively. Multivariate analysis with Cox proportional hazards models showed that male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 2.646; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.790-3.911), FIB-4 index >3.25 (HR, 2.891; 95% CI, 1.947-4.293), and α-fetoprotein >5 ng/mL (HR, 2.835; 95% CI, 1.914-4.200) are independently associated with HCC development. The incidence of HCC differed significantly by ADRES score (P < 0.001). Cox proportional hazards models showed that compared to the ADRES score 0 group, the HR for HCC development was 2.947 (95% CI, 1.367-6.354) in the ADRES score 1 group, 9.171 (95% CI, 4.339-19.380) in the ADRES score 2 group, and 20.630 (95% CI, 8.641-49.230) in the ADRES score 3 group. ADRES score had superior predictive power for HCC development compared with the FIB-4 index and α-fetoprotein according to time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis. CONCLUSION: The ADRES score is useful for predicting HCC development after SVR.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Assessment for Patients With Advanced Fibrosis After Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus.

The identification of patients with advanced fibrosis who do not need any further hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance after the eradication of hepatitis C is pivotal. In this study, we developed a simple serum-based risk model that could identify patients with low-risk HCC. This was a nationwide multicenter study involving 16 Hospitals in Japan. Patients with advanced fibrosis (1,325 in a derivation cohort and 508 in a validation cohort) who achieved sustained virological responses at 24 weeks after treatment (SVR24) were enrolled. The HCC risk model at any point after SVR24 and its change were evaluated, and subsequent HCC development was analyzed. Based on the multivariable analysis, patients fulfilling all of the factors (GAF4 criteria: gamma-glutamyl transferase < 28 IU/L, alpha-fetoprotein < 4.0 ng/mL, and Fibrosis-4 Index < 4.28) were classified as low-risk and others were classified as high-risk. When patients were stratified at the SVR24, and 1 year, and 2 years after SVR24, subsequent HCC development was significantly lower in low-risk patients (0.5-1.1 per 100 person-years in the derivation cohort and 0.9-1.1 per 100 person-years in the validation cohort) than in high-risk patients at each point. HCC risk from 1 year after SVR24 decreased in patients whose risk improved from high-risk to low-risk (HCC incidence: 0.6 per 100 person-years [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.163 in the derivation cohort] and 1.3 per 100 person-years [HR = 0.239 in the validation cohort]) than in those with sustained high risk. Conclusion: The HCC risk model based on simple serum markers at any point after SVR and its change can identify patients with advanced fibrosis who are at low HCC risk, and these patients may be able to reduce HCC surveillance.

The Real-World Data in Japanese Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Lenvatinib from a Nationwide Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Lenvatinib (LEN) has been approved for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (u-HCC) since March 2018 in Japan. We performed a retrospective nationwide multicenter study to clarify the clinical characteristics of LEN in real-world practice. METHODS: A total of 343 u-HCC patients who received LEN from March 2018 to May 2020 at 23 sites in Japan were registered. RESULTS: During the median observation period of 10.5 months, 143 patients died. In Child-Pugh A (n = 276) and Child-Pugh B (n = 67) patients, the median overall survival (OS) was 21.0 and 9.0 months. The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 8.8 months in Child-Pugh A patients. The objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR) according to modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST criteria) were 42.1% and 82.1%. The independent pretreatment factors associated with mortality in all patients were AFP ≥ 400 ng/mL (hazard ratio (HR) 2.00, 95% confidential interval (95% CI) 1.08-2.09, p < 0.0001), modified albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2b or 3 (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.09-2.17, p = 0.012), major vascular invasion (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.26-2.89, p = 0.0022), PS > 0 (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.09-2.08, p = 0.014), and MTT (molecular targeted therapy) experience (HR 2.22, 95% CI 1.56-3.13, p = 0.00038). In the MTT naïve patients with ALBI grade 1 or modified ALBI 2a and BCLC stage B (n = 68), median OS and PFS were 25.3 and 12.3 months. Liver-related adverse events during LEN were the only significant adverse event associated with OS (HR 2.74, 95% CI 1.93-3.88, p < 0.0001). Among the Child-Pugh A patients with extrahepatic metastasis and no major vascular invasion, median PFS in the patients with bone metastasis was significantly shorter than those with lung or adrenal grand metastasis (6.3 vs. 12.5 months, p = 0.0025). CONCLUSION: LEN showed a high response rate in real-world practice. Pretreatment factors, including ALBI score, AFP, and major vascular invasion are important in making a treatment strategy for patients with u-HCC. The patients with bone metastasis would be candidates for new therapeutic approaches.

Real-world clinical outcomes of sofosbuvir and velpatasvir treatment in HCV genotype 1- and 2-infected patients with decompensated cirrhosis: A nationwide multicenter study by the Japanese Red Cross Liver Study Group.

The real-world virological efficacy and safety of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy with sofosbuvir (SOF) and velpatasvir (VEL) were assessed in hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1- and 2-infected patients with decompensated cirrhosis. A total of 65 patients with HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis (Child-Pugh score of 7 points or more) who were treated with the SOF/VEL regimen were enrolled. The sustained virological response (SVR) rate and safety profile were analyzed. SVR was defined as undetectable serum HCV RNA at 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR12). The percentages of patients with undetectable HCV RNA at 4, 8, and 12 weeks after the start of therapy were 81.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69.5-89.9) (52/64), 98.4% (95% CI, 91.2-100.0) (60/61), and 98.5% (95% CI, 91.7-100.0) (64/65), respectively. The overall SVR rate was 92.3% (95% CI, 83.0-97.5) (60/65). Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores decreased during and after treatment (p < 0.001), and there were significant differences between baseline and end of treatment and between baseline and SVR12. Subgroup analyses showed no significant differences in SVR rates according to patient age, sex, HCV genotype (subtype), Child-Pugh classification, modified ALBI grade, presence of ascites, presence of hepatic coma, or history of hepatocellular carcinoma. In all subpopulations, the SVR rates were higher than 80%. There were no severe adverse events associated with the treatment. The SOF/VEL regimen showed good virological efficacy and acceptable safety even in patients with HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

Change in Fibrosis 4 Index as Predictor of High Risk of Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether the fibrosis 4 index (FIB-4), a marker of liver fibrosis, at baseline and change in FIB-4 after sustained virological response (SVR) is associated with incident hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. In this study, we examined the association of incident HCC risk with baseline FIB-4 and sustained high FIB-4 (>3.25) at any time point after SVR. METHODS: A total of 3823 patients who received direct-acting antiviral treatment and achieved SVR were enrolled. The FIB-4 was measured 24 weeks after the end of direct-acting antiviral treatment and achievement of SVR (SVR24), and 1, 2, and 3 years after SVR24, after which subsequent HCC development was investigated. RESULTS: In patients with an FIB-4 >3.25 at SVR24 and 1, 2, and 3 years after SVR24, subsequent HCC development was significantly higher than in those with an FIB-4 ≤3.25 at each point. The rates of HCC development 1, 2, 3, and 4 years after SVR24 were significantly higher in patients with sustained FIB-4 >3.25 than in those whose FIB-4 decreased to ≤3.25 (5.4%, 9.2%, 11.7%, and 16.0%, respectively, vs 2.2%, 3.1%, 3.7%, and 4.4%; P < .001). The adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for an FIB-4 >3.25 at SVR24 and 1, 2, and 3 years later were 3.38 (2.4-4.8), 2.95 (1.9-4.7), 2.62 (1.3-5.1), and 3.37 (1.4-9.8), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The FIB-4 could be used to assess HCC development risk at any time after SVR, and changes in FIB-4 were associated with changes in the HCC development risk. Repeated assessments of FIB-4 could serve as a prognostic indicator of a high-risk HCC cohort that may require more intensive HCC surveillance strategy.