Electrocardiographic deep learning for predicting post-procedural mortality: a model development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative risk assessments used in clinical practice are insufficient in their ability to identify risk for postoperative mortality. Deep-learning analysis of electrocardiography can identify hidden risk markers that can help to prognosticate postoperative mortality. We aimed to develop a prognostic model that accurately predicts postoperative mortality in patients undergoing medical procedures and who had received preoperative electrocardiographic diagnostic testing. METHODS: In a derivation cohort of preoperative patients with available electrocardiograms (ECGs) from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center (Los Angeles, CA, USA) between Jan 1, 2015 and Dec 31, 2019, a deep-learning algorithm was developed to leverage waveform signals to discriminate postoperative mortality. We randomly split patients (8:1:1) into subsets for training, internal validation, and final algorithm test analyses. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values in the hold-out test dataset and in two external hospital cohorts and compared with the established Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) score. The primary outcome was post-procedural mortality across three health-care systems. FINDINGS: 45 969 patients had a complete ECG waveform image available for at least one 12-lead ECG performed within the 30 days before the procedure date (59 975 inpatient procedures and 112 794 ECGs): 36 839 patients in the training dataset, 4549 in the internal validation dataset, and 4581 in the internal test dataset. In the held-out internal test cohort, the algorithm discriminates mortality with an AUC value of 0·83 (95% CI 0·79-0·87), surpassing the discrimination of the RCRI score with an AUC of 0·67 (0·61-0·72). The algorithm similarly discriminated risk for mortality in two independent US health-care systems, with AUCs of 0·79 (0·75-0·83) and 0·75 (0·74-0·76), respectively. Patients determined to be high risk by the deep-learning model had an unadjusted odds ratio (OR) of 8·83 (5·57-13·20) for postoperative mortality compared with an unadjusted OR of 2·08 (0·77-3·50) for postoperative mortality for RCRI scores of more than 2. The deep-learning algorithm performed similarly for patients undergoing cardiac surgery (AUC 0·85 [0·77-0·92]), non-cardiac surgery (AUC 0·83 [0·79-0·88]), and catheterisation or endoscopy suite procedures (AUC 0·76 [0·72-0·81]). INTERPRETATION: A deep-learning algorithm interpreting preoperative ECGs can improve discrimination of postoperative mortality. The deep-learning algorithm worked equally well for risk stratification of cardiac surgeries, non-cardiac surgeries, and catheterisation laboratory procedures, and was validated in three independent health-care systems. This algorithm can provide additional information to clinicians making the decision to perform medical procedures and stratify the risk of future complications. FUNDING: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Risk Factors for the Development of New-Onset Persistent Atrial Fibrillation: Subanalysis of the VITAL Study.

BACKGROUND: Sustained forms of atrial fibrillation (AF) are associated with lower treatment success rates and poorer prognosis compared with paroxysmal AF. Yet, little is known about risk factors that predispose to persistent AF on initial presentation. Our objective was to define risk factors associated with new-onset persistent AF. METHODS: We prospectively examined the differential associations between lifestyle, clinical, and socioeconomic risk factors and AF pattern (persistent versus paroxysmal) at the time of diagnosis among 25 119 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease, AF, or cancer in the VITAL rhythm study (Vitamin D and Omega-3). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 5.3 years, 900 participants developed AF and 346 (38.4%) were classified as persistent at the time of diagnosis. In multivariable competing risk models, increasing age, male sex, White race, height, weight, body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, hypertension, current or past smoking, alcohol intake ≥2 drinks/day, postcollege education, and randomized treatment with vitamin D were significantly associated with incident persistent AF. Compared with paroxysmal AF, increasing age, male sex, weight, body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, and postcollege education were more strongly associated with persistent AF in multivariable models regardless of whether interim cardiovascular disease and heart failure events were censored. CONCLUSIONS: In a prospective cohort without baseline AF or cardiovascular disease, over one-third of AF at the time of diagnosis is persistent. Older age, male sex, postcollege education, and obesity were preferentially associated with persistent AF and represent a high-risk AF subset for population-based intervention.

Marine n-3 Fatty Acids and Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: A Novel Analysis of the VITAL Trial Using Win Ratio and Hierarchical Composite Outcomes.

This study aimed to investigate whether n-3 fatty acid supplementation reduced cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in a novel analysis using hierarchical composite CVD outcomes based on win ratio in the VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL). This was a secondary analysis of our VITAL randomized trial, which assessed the effects of marine n-3 fatty acids (1 g/day) and vitamin D3 on incident CVD and cancer among healthy older adults (n = 25,871). The primary analysis estimated win ratios of a composite of major CVD outcomes prioritized as fatal coronary heart disease, other fatal CVD including stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and non-fatal stroke, comparing n-3 fatty acids to placebo. The primary result was a nonsignificant benefit of this supplementation for the prioritized primary CVD outcome (reciprocal win ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.90 [0.78-1.04]), similar to the 0.92 (0.80-1.06) hazard ratio in our original time-to-first event analysis without outcome prioritization. Its benefits came from reducing MI (0.71 [0.57-0.88]) but not stroke (1.01 [0.80 to 1.28]) components. For the primary CVD outcome, participants with low fish consumption at baseline benefited (0.79 [0.65-0.96]) more than those with high consumption (1.05 [0.85-1.30]). These results are consistent with, but slightly stronger than, those without outcome prioritization.

Multi-ancestry transcriptome-wide association analyses yield insights into tobacco use biology and drug repurposing.

Most transcriptome-wide association studies (TWASs) so far focus on European ancestry and lack diversity. To overcome this limitation, we aggregated genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics, whole-genome sequences and expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) data from diverse ancestries. We developed a new approach, TESLA (multi-ancestry integrative study using an optimal linear combination of association statistics), to integrate an eQTL dataset with a multi-ancestry GWAS. By exploiting shared phenotypic effects between ancestries and accommodating potential effect heterogeneities, TESLA improves power over other TWAS methods. When applied to tobacco use phenotypes, TESLA identified 273 new genes, up to 55% more compared with alternative TWAS methods. These hits and subsequent fine mapping using TESLA point to target genes with biological relevance. In silico drug-repurposing analyses highlight several drugs with known efficacy, including dextromethorphan and galantamine, and new drugs such as muscle relaxants that may be repurposed for treating nicotine addiction.

Genetic diversity fuels gene discovery for tobacco and alcohol use.

Tobacco and alcohol use are heritable behaviours associated with 15% and 5.3% of worldwide deaths, respectively, due largely to broad increased risk for disease and injury1-4. These substances are used across the globe, yet genome-wide association studies have focused largely on individuals of European ancestries5. Here we leveraged global genetic diversity across 3.4 million individuals from four major clines of global ancestry (approximately 21% non-European) to power the discovery and fine-mapping of genomic loci associated with tobacco and alcohol use, to inform function of these loci via ancestry-aware transcriptome-wide association studies, and to evaluate the genetic architecture and predictive power of polygenic risk within and across populations. We found that increases in sample size and genetic diversity improved locus identification and fine-mapping resolution, and that a large majority of the 3,823 associated variants (from 2,143 loci) showed consistent effect sizes across ancestry dimensions. However, polygenic risk scores developed in one ancestry performed poorly in others, highlighting the continued need to increase sample sizes of diverse ancestries to realize any potential benefit of polygenic prediction.

Sex Differences in Atrial Fibrillation Risk: The VITAL Rhythm Study.

Importance: Women have a lower incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) compared with men in several studies, but it is unclear whether this sex difference is independent of sex differences in prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD), body size, and other risk factors. Objective: To examine sex differences in AF incidence and whether AF risk factors differ by sex in a contemporary cohort of men and women without prevalent CVD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a prospective cohort analysis within the Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial (VITAL) Rhythm Study, a randomized trial that examined the effect of vitamin D and ω-3 fatty acid supplementation on incident AF among men 50 years or older and women 55 years or older without a prior history of prevalent AF, CVD, or cancer at baseline. Data were analyzed from September 29, 2020, to June 29, 2021. Exposures: Sex, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), body surface area (BSA), and other AF risk factors at study enrollment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident AF confirmed by medical record review. Results: A total of 25 119 individuals (mean [SD] age, 67.0 [7.1] years; 12 757 women [51%]) were included in this study. Over a median (IQR) follow-up of 5.3 (5.1-5.7) years, 900 confirmed incident AF events occurred among 12 362 men (495 events, 4.0%) and 12 757 women (405 events, 3.2%). After adjustment for age and treatment assignment, women were at lower risk for incident AF than men (hazard ratio [HR], 0.68; 95% CI, 0.59-0.77; P < .001). The inverse association between female sex and AF persisted after adjustment for race and ethnicity, smoking, alcohol intake, hypertension, diabetes (type 1, type 2, gestational), thyroid disease, exercise, and BMI (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.63-0.85; P <.001). However, female sex was positively associated with AF when height (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.14-1.72; P = .001), height and weight (HR 1.49, 95% CI, 1.21-1.82; P <.001), or BSA (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06-1.49; P = .009) were substituted for BMI in the multivariate model. In stratified models, risk factor associations with incident AF were similar for women and men. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, findings suggest that after controlling for height and/or body size, women without CVD at baseline were at higher risk for AF than men, suggesting that sex differences in body size account for much of the protective association between female sex and AF. These data underscore the importance of AF prevention in women.

Diabetes Mellitus, Race, and Effects of Omega-3 Fatty Acids on Incidence of Heart Failure Hospitalization.

OBJECTIVES: The primary aim was to evaluate whether prevalent type 2 diabetes (T2D) modifies the effects of omega-3 supplementation on heart failure (HF) hospitalization. The secondary aim was to examine if race modifies the effects of omega-3 supplements on HF risk. BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether race and T2D modify the effects of omega-3 supplementation on the incidence of HF. METHODS: In this ancillary study of the parent VITAL (Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial)-a completed randomized trial testing the efficacy of vitamin D and omega-3 fatty acids on cardiovascular diseases and cancer, we assessed the role of T2D and race on the effects of omega-3 supplements on the incidence of HF hospitalization (adjudicated by a review of medical records and supplemented with a query of Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data). RESULTS: When omega-3 supplements were compared with placebo, the HR for first HF hospitalization was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.50-0.95) in participants with prevalent T2D and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.88-1.34) in those without T2D (P for interaction = 0.019). Furthermore, prevalent T2D modified the effects of omega-3 fatty acids on the incidence of recurrent HF hospitalization (HR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.41-0.69 in participants with prevalent T2D vs HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.89-1.28 in those without T2D; P interaction <0.0001). In our secondary analysis, omega-3 supplementation reduced recurrent HF hospitalization only in Black participants (P interaction race × omega-3 = 0.0497). CONCLUSIONS: Our data show beneficial effects of omega-3 fatty acid supplements on incidence of HF hospitalization in participants with T2D but not in those without T2D, and such benefit appeared to be stronger in Black participants with T2D. (Intervention With Vitamin D and Omega-3 Supplements and Incident Heart Failure; NCT02271230; Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial [VITAL]; NCT01169259 [parent study]).

Effect of Marine Omega-3 Fatty Acid and Vitamin D Supplementation on Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common heart rhythm disturbance, continues to increase in incidence, and results in significant morbidity and mortality. The marine omega-3 fatty acids, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), and vitamin D have been reported to have both benefits and risks with respect to incident AF, but large-scale, long-term randomized trial data are lacking. Objective: To test the effects of long-term administration of marine omega-3 fatty acids and vitamin D on incident AF. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ancillary study of a 2 × 2 factorial randomized clinical trial involving 25 119 women and men aged 50 years or older without prior cardiovascular disease, cancer, or AF. Participants were recruited directly by mail between November 2011 and March 2014 from all 50 US states and were followed up until December 31, 2017. Interventions: Participants were randomized to receive EPA-DHA (460 mg/d of EPA and 380 mg/d of DHA) and vitamin D3 (2000 IU/d) (n = 6272 analyzed); EPA-DHA and placebo (n = 6270 analyzed); vitamin D3 and placebo (n = 6281 analyzed); or 2 placebos (n = 6296 analyzed). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident AF confirmed by medical record review. Results: Among the 25 119 participants who were randomized and included in the analysis (mean age, 66.7 years; 50.8% women), 24 127 (96.1%) completed the trial. Over a median 5.3 years of treatment and follow-up, the primary end point of incident AF occurred in 900 participants (3.6% of study population). For the EPA-DHA vs placebo comparison, incident AF events occurred in 469 (3.7%) vs 431 (3.4%) participants, respectively (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.96-1.24; P = .19). For the vitamin D3 vs placebo comparison, incident AF events occurred in 469 (3.7%) vs 431 (3.4%) participants, respectively (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.96-1.25; P = .19). There was no evidence for interaction between the 2 study agents (P = .39). Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults aged 50 years or older, treatment with EPA-DHA or vitamin D3, compared with placebo, resulted in no significant difference in the risk of incident AF over a median follow-up of more than 5 years. The findings do not support the use of either agent for the primary prevention of incident AF. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: NCT02178410; NCT01169259.

Guidance for Rebooting Electrophysiology Through the COVID-19 Pandemic From the Heart Rhythm Society and the American Heart Association Electrocardiography and Arrhythmias Committee of the Council on Clinical Cardiology: Endorsed by the American College of Cardiology.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has presented substantial challenges to patient care and impacted health care delivery, including cardiac electrophysiology practice throughout the globe. Based upon the undetermined course and regional variability of the pandemic, there is uncertainty as to how and when to resume and deliver electrophysiology services for arrhythmia patients. This joint document from representatives of the Heart Rhythm Society, American Heart Association, and American College of Cardiology seeks to provide guidance for clinicians and institutions reestablishing safe electrophysiological care. To achieve this aim, we address regional and local COVID-19 disease status, the role of viral screening and serologic testing, return-to-work considerations for exposed or infected health care workers, risk stratification and management strategies based on COVID-19 disease burden, institutional preparedness for resumption of elective procedures, patient preparation and communication, prioritization of procedures, and development of outpatient and periprocedural care pathways.

Markers of Myocardial Stress, Myocardial Injury, and Subclinical Inflammation and the Risk of Sudden Death.

BACKGROUND: The majority of sudden cardiac deaths (SCDs) occur in low-risk populations often as the first manifestation of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Biomarkers are screening tools that may identify subclinical cardiovascular disease and those at elevated risk for SCD. We aimed to determine whether the total to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein individually or in combination could identify individuals at higher SCD risk in large, free-living populations with and without cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study within 6 prospective cohort studies using 565 SCD cases matched to 1090 controls (1:2) by age, sex, ethnicity, smoking status, and presence of cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: The median study follow-up time until SCD was 11.3 years. When examined as quartiles or continuous variables in conditional logistic regression models, each of the biomarkers was significantly and independently associated with SCD risk after mutually controlling for cardiac risk factors and other biomarkers. The mutually adjusted odds ratios for the top compared with the bottom quartile were 1.90 (95% CI, 1.30-2.76) for total to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, 2.59 (95% CI, 1.76-3.83) for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, 1.65 (95% CI, 1.12-2.44) for NT-proBNP, and 1.65 (95% CI, 1.13-2.41) for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. A biomarker score that awarded 1 point when the concentration of any of those 4 biomarkers was in the top quartile (score range, 0-4) was strongly associated with SCD, with an adjusted odds ratio of 1.56 (95% CI, 1.37-1.77) per 1-unit increase in the score. CONCLUSIONS: Widely available measures of lipids, subclinical myocardial injury, myocardial strain, and vascular inflammation show significant independent associations with SCD risk in apparently low-risk populations. In combination, these measures may have utility to identify individuals at risk for SCD.

The COronavirus Pandemic Epidemiology (COPE) Consortium: A Call to Action.

The rapid pace of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19) pandemic presents challenges to the real-time collection of population-scale data to inform near-term public health needs as well as future investigations. We established the COronavirus Pandemic Epidemiology (COPE) consortium to address this unprecedented crisis on behalf of the epidemiology research community. As a central component of this initiative, we have developed a COVID Symptom Study (previously known as the COVID Symptom Tracker) mobile application as a common data collection tool for epidemiologic cohort studies with active study participants. This mobile application collects information on risk factors, daily symptoms, and outcomes through a user-friendly interface that minimizes participant burden. Combined with our efforts within the general population, data collected from nearly 3 million participants in the United States and United Kingdom are being used to address critical needs in the emergency response, including identifying potential hot spots of disease and clinically actionable risk factors. The linkage of symptom data collected in the app with information and biospecimens already collected in epidemiology cohorts will position us to address key questions related to diet, lifestyle, environmental, and socioeconomic factors on susceptibility to COVID-19, clinical outcomes related to infection, and long-term physical, mental health, and financial sequalae. We call upon additional epidemiology cohorts to join this collective effort to strengthen our impact on the current health crisis and generate a new model for a collaborative and nimble research infrastructure that will lead to more rapid translation of our work for the betterment of public health.

Vitamin D, Marine n-3 Fatty Acids, and Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease Current Evidence.

Whether marine omega-3 fatty acid (n-3 FA) or vitamin D supplementation can prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) in general populations at usual risk for this outcome is unknown. A major goal of VITAL (Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial) was to fill this knowledge gap. In this article, we review the results of VITAL, discuss relevant mechanistic studies regarding n-3 FAs, vitamin D, and vascular disease, and summarize recent meta-analyses of the randomized trial evidence on these agents. VITAL was a nationwide, randomized, placebo-controlled, 2×2 factorial trial of marine n-3 FAs (1 g/d) and vitamin D3 (2000 IU/d) in the primary prevention of CVD and cancer among 25 871 US men aged ≥50 and women aged ≥55 years, including 5106 blacks. Median treatment duration was 5.3 years. Supplemental n-3 FAs did not significantly reduce the primary cardiovascular end point of major CVD events (composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, and CVD mortality; hazard ratio [HR], 0.92 [95% CI, 0.80-1.06]) but were associated with significant reductions in total myocardial infarction (HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.59-0.90]), percutaneous coronary intervention (HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.63-0.95]), and fatal myocardial infarction (HR, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.26-0.97]) but not stroke or other cardiovascular end points. For major CVD events, a treatment benefit was seen in those with dietary fish intake below the cohort median of 1.5 servings/wk (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.67-0.98]) but not in those above (P interaction=0.045). For myocardial infarction, the greatest risk reductions were in blacks (HR, 0.23 [95% CI, 0.11-0.47]; P interaction by race, 0.001). Vitamin D supplementation did not reduce major CVD events (HR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.85-1.12]) or other cardiovascular end points. Updated meta-analyses that include VITAL and other recent trials document coronary risk reduction from supplemental marine n-3 FAs but no clear CVD risk reduction from supplemental vitamin D. Additional research is needed to determine which individuals may be most likely to derive net benefit from supplementation. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01169259.

Risk and predictors of subsequent cancers of patients with newly-diagnosed atrial fibrillation - A nationwide population-based study.

AIMS: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) may be at higher risk for cancer, possibly due to the presence of coexisting risk factors. In this study, we investigate the magnitude and predictors of this potential risk within a population-based study. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study cohort included 332,555 AF patients aged ≥20 years without past history of cancer. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was used as a measure of relative risk, comparing observed cancer incidence among patients with AF with that expected based on cancer incidence in the Taiwanese population. During the observation period, 22,911 incident cancers occurred with an incidence of 1.65%/year. Compared with the general population, AF patients had a significantly higher cancer risk with a SIR of 1.37 (95%CI = 1.36-1.39). Patients with new-onset AF had an elevated cancer risk which was highest within 1 year (SIR = 2.30; 95%CI, 2.25-2.36) and persisted beyond 10 years after AF was diagnosed (SIR = 1.18; 95%CI, 1.11-1.25). Age ≥ 65 years, male gender, hypertension, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and liver cirrhosis were significantly associated with development of cancers among AF patients. The hazard ratio of cancers increased from 1.40 (95%CI = 1.28-1.53) for patients having 1 risk factor to 5.14 (95%CI = 4.03-6.06) for patients with 6 risk factors, in comparison to those without any risk factors. CONCLUSION: In the nationwide cohort study, we show that AF patients had a higher risk of cancer. Age, male gender, hypertension, diabetes, COPD and liver cirrhosis are important risk factors of cancer among AF patients. Prompt and detailed examinations may be considered for incident AF patients with multiple risk factors to early detect the occult malignancy.

Duration and life-stage of antibiotic use and risk of cardiovascular events in women.

AIMS: Growing data suggest that antibiotic exposure is associated with a long-lasting alteration in gut microbiota, and may be related to subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated associations of life-stage and duration of antibiotic exposure during adulthood with subsequent CVD events. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study included 36 429 women initially free of CVD and cancer from the Nurses' Health Study. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD (a composite endpoint of coronary heart disease or stroke) according to duration of antibiotic use in young (age 20-39), middle (age 40-59), and late (age 60 and older) adulthood. During an average of 7.6 years of follow-up, 1056 participants developed CVD. Women with long-term use of antibiotics (for ≥2 months) in late adulthood had a significantly increased risk of CVD (HR 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.70) after adjustment for covariates (such as demographic factors, diet and lifestyle, reasons for antibiotic use, overweight or obesity, disease status, and other medication use), as compared to women who did not use antibiotics in this life-stage. Longer duration of antibiotic use in middle adulthood was also related to higher risk of CVD (P trend = 0.003) after controlling for these covariates. There was no significant relationship between the use in young adulthood and the risk of CVD. CONCLUSION: In this study which examined the antibiotic use in different life-stages, longer duration of exposure to antibiotics in the middle and older adulthood was related to an increased risk of future CVD events among elderly women at usual risk.

Marine n-3 Fatty Acids and Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Higher intake of marine n-3 (also called omega-3) fatty acids has been associated with reduced risks of cardiovascular disease and cancer in several observational studies. Whether supplementation with n-3 fatty acids has such effects in general populations at usual risk for these end points is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, placebo-controlled trial, with a two-by-two factorial design, of vitamin D3 (at a dose of 2000 IU per day) and marine n-3 fatty acids (at a dose of 1 g per day) in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer among men 50 years of age or older and women 55 years of age or older in the United States. Primary end points were major cardiovascular events (a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes) and invasive cancer of any type. Secondary end points included individual components of the composite cardiovascular end point, the composite end point plus coronary revascularization (expanded composite of cardiovascular events), site-specific cancers, and death from cancer. Safety was also assessed. This article reports the results of the comparison of n-3 fatty acids with placebo. RESULTS: A total of 25,871 participants, including 5106 black participants, underwent randomization. During a median follow-up of 5.3 years, a major cardiovascular event occurred in 386 participants in the n-3 group and in 419 in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.06; P=0.24). Invasive cancer was diagnosed in 820 participants in the n-3 group and in 797 in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.93 to 1.13; P=0.56). In the analyses of key secondary end points, the hazard ratios were as follows: for the expanded composite end point of cardiovascular events, 0.93 (95% CI, 0.82 to 1.04); for total myocardial infarction, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.90); for total stroke, 1.04 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.31); for death from cardiovascular causes, 0.96 (95% CI, 0.76 to 1.21); and for death from cancer (341 deaths from cancer), 0.97 (95% CI, 0.79 to 1.20). In the analysis of death from any cause (978 deaths overall), the hazard ratio was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.90 to 1.15). No excess risks of bleeding or other serious adverse events were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Supplementation with n-3 fatty acids did not result in a lower incidence of major cardiovascular events or cancer than placebo. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; VITAL ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01169259 .).

Differences in Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death Between Blacks and Whites.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have consistently demonstrated that blacks have an approximate 2-fold higher incidence of sudden cardiac death (SCD) than whites; however, these analyses have lacked individual-level sociodemographic, medical comorbidity, and behavioral health data. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether racial differences in SCD incidence are attributable to differences in the prevalence of risk factors or rather to underlying susceptibility to fatal arrhythmias. METHODS: The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study is a prospective, population-based cohort of adults from across the United States. Associations between race and SCD defined per National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute criteria were assessed. RESULTS: Among 22,507 participants (9,416 blacks and 13,091 whites) without a history of clinical cardiovascular disease, there were 174 SCD events (67 whites and 107 blacks) over a median follow-up of 6.1 years (interquartile range: 4.6 to 7.3 years). The age-adjusted SCD incidence rate (per 1,000 person-years) was higher in blacks (1.8; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4 to 2.2) compared with whites (0.7; 95% CI: 0.6 to 0.9), with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.35; 95% CI: 1.74 to 3.20. The association of black race with SCD risk remained significant after adjustment for sociodemographics, comorbidities, behavioral measures of health, intervening cardiovascular events, and competing risks of non-SCD mortality (hazard ratio: 1.97; 95% CI: 1.39 to 2.77). CONCLUSIONS: In a large biracial population of adults without a history of cardiovascular disease, SCD rates were significantly higher in blacks as compared with whites. These racial differences were not fully explained by demographics, adverse socioeconomic measures, cardiovascular risk factors, and behavioral measures of health.

Gallstone disease and increased risk of mortality: Two large prospective studies in US men and women.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Gallstone disease has been related to a higher prevalence and incidence of chronic conditions, such as dyslipidemia, obesity, and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, limited data are available regarding whether gallstone disease is related to mortality. METHODS: We examined the relationship of a history of gallstone disease and risk of death, using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, among 86 030 women from the Nurses' Health Study and 43 949 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. RESULTS: During the up-to 32 years of follow-up, 34 011 all-cause deaths were confirmed, of which 8138 were CVD deaths and 12 173 were cancer deaths. For the participants with a history of gallstone disease compared with those without, the hazard ratio of total mortality was 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.13, 1.20), of CVD mortality 1.11 (1.05, 1.17), of cancer mortality 1.15 (1.09, 1.20), and of other mortality 1.19 (1.14, 1.25) from a pooled-analysis of women and men (all P < 0.001). The multi-adjusted associations between gallstone disease and total mortality persisted among women and men, and among participants with various risk profiles including the different status of body mass index, hormone therapy use, diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia (all P for interaction ≥ 0.09). CONCLUSION: These data suggest that gallstone disease is associated with a higher risk of total mortality and disease-specific mortality, including CVD and cancer mortality, independent of various traditional risk factors.

Menopausal age, postmenopausal hormone therapy and incident atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVE: Limited data exist on the association between menopause and atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to examine the relationship between menopausal age, postmenopausal hormone therapy (PHT) use and incident AF. METHODS: The Women's Health Study (WHS) enrolled 39 876 female health professionals between 1992 and 1995. We prospectively examined 30 034 women in WHS using Cox proportional-hazard models. Participants were free of cardiovascular disease and AF at baseline and had not undergone hysterectomy without bilateral oophorectomy prior to menopause. Incident AF was confirmed by medical record review. RESULTS: At baseline, median age was 53 years (IQR 49-60), median menopausal age was 50 years (IQR 46-52) and 14 415 (48.0%) had prior PHT use. Over a median follow-up of 20.5 years, 1350 AF events occurred. In multivariable analysis, relative hazards for AF were lower among women with younger age at menopause but did not differ significantly from women with the oldest menopausal age (<45: HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.02; 45-49: HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.08; 50-54: HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.06; >54 years: referent). Use of oestrogen-alone PHT, but not oestrogen and progesterone, was independently associated with AF risk (HR 1.22; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.45 vs HR 1.04; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.26). This relationship was not attenuated by intermediary cardiovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: In this large prospective study, menopausal age was not significantly related to incident AF, while use of oestrogen monotherapy was associated with increased AF risk. Our findings suggest a pathophysiological link between unopposed oestrogen exposure and AF in women. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT000000479; Post-results.

Modifiable Risk Factors for Incident Heart Failure in Atrial Fibrillation.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to identify modifiable risk factors and estimate the impact of risk factor modification on heart failure (HF) risk in women with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). BACKGROUND: Incident HF is the most common nonfatal event in patients with AF, although strategies for HF prevention are lacking. METHODS: We assessed 34,736 participants in the Women's Health Study who were free of prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline. Cox models with time-varying assessment of risk factors after AF diagnosis were used to identify significant modifiable risk factors for incident HF. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 20.6 years, 1,495 women developed AF without prevalent HF. In multivariable models, new-onset AF was associated with an increased risk of HF (hazard ratio [HR]: 9.03; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.52 to 10.85). Once women with AF developed HF, all-cause (HR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.37 to 2.45) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 2.87; 95% CI: 1.70 to 4.85) increased. In time-updated, multivariable models accounting for changes in risk factors after AF diagnosis, systolic blood pressure >120 mm Hg, body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, current tobacco use, and diabetes mellitus were each associated with incident HF. The combination of these 4 modifiable risk factors accounted for an estimated 62% (95% CI: 23% to 83%) of the population-attributable risk of HF. Compared with women with 3 or 4 risk factors, those who maintained or achieved optimal risk factor control had a progressive decreased risk of HF (HR for 2 risk factors: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.95; 1 risk factor: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.63; and 0 risk factors: 0.14; 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.29). CONCLUSIONS: In women with new-onset AF, modifiable risk factors including obesity, hypertension, smoking, and diabetes accounted for the majority of the population risk of HF. Optimal levels of modifiable risk factors were associated with decreased HF risk. Prospective assessment of risk factor modification at the time of AF diagnosis may warrant future investigation.