Validation of the Updated Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Screening Algorithm in a Community-Based Cohort of Patients With Cirrhosis of Multiple Etiologies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) Early detection Screening (HES) algorithm has been proposed to improve the performance of the serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) test in surveillance for HCC. The HES algorithm incorporates data on age, level of alanine aminotransferase, platelet count, and rate of AFP change to increase likelihood of earlier detection and thereby reduce HCC-related mortality. We updated the HES algorithm to include etiology of cirrhosis and validated it in a community-based cohort. METHODS: We collected data from the Veterans Health Administration, from 2010 through 2015, on etiologies for HCC, including hepatitis C, hepatitis B, alcoholic liver disease, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. We used these data to update the HES algorithm and tested its accuracy using data from patients with cirrhosis in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California healthcare system (validation cohort). RESULTS: Among the 7432 patients with cirrhosis in the validation cohort, 1102 were diagnosed with HCC during a median follow-up time of 3.21 years; 709 patients had early-stage HCC. The HES algorithm identified patients who would receive a diagnosis of early-stage HCC within the next 6 months with 51.20% sensitivity and 90.00% specificity, compared with 46.02% sensitivity for the AFP test alone (5.18% absolute improvement; P = .0015). In HCC screening, a positive result from HES or AFP test leads to follow-up evaluation with more sensitive imaging methods. The number of early-stage HCC cases detected per 1000 imaging analyses were 136.46 with the HES algorithm vs 118.01 with the AFP test alone (P < .0005). The HES algorithm identified 56.00% of patients with HCC in the 6 months before their diagnosis despite no detection of nodules by surveillance ultrasound; the AFP test identified only 50.00% of these patients. CONCLUSIONS: We validated the HES algorithm using data from a diverse community-based cohort of patients with cirrhosis. The algorithm offers a modest but useful advantage over the AFP test alone in detection of early-stage HCC with virtually no added cost.

Oral bisphosphonates and colorectal cancer.

Use of oral bisphosphonates has been associated with a decreased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but the association may be related to residual confounding by healthy lifestyle or body mass index (BMI). Therefore, we conducted a prospective nested case-control study within the Kaiser Permanente, Northern California health system cohort. In total, 12,505 CRC cases were individually matched to 599,534 controls. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using conditional logistic regression models with adjustment for important covariates extracted from the database. Participants who had ever used oral bisphosphonates were less likely than non-users to be diagnosed with CRC (OR 0.82; 95% CI: 0.74, 0.89). Colon and rectum site-specific associations were similar to the overall association. A stronger inverse association for ever use of bisphosphonates was observed for men (OR 0.63; 95% CI: 0.47, 0.85), however when stratified by previous lower endoscopy, the association was only observed in the participants who did not have a previous lower endoscopy (OR 0.73 (0.64, 0.83)). In conclusion, we found that oral bisphosphonate use was associated with a decreased odds of CRC, however this association may be due to residual confounding by BMI or another confounder.

Ghrelin and Leptin Have a Complex Relationship with Risk of Barrett's Esophagus.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal obesity is a risk factor for Barrett's esophagus independent of GERD symptoms, but little is understood about the biological mechanisms between obesity and the carcinogenic pathway of esophageal adenocarcinoma. AIMS: To evaluate whether ghrelin and leptin may partially explain the association between obesity and Barrett's esophagus. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study using patients with a new diagnosis of Barrett's esophagus (cases) and two control groups frequency matched to cases for age, gender, and geographic region: (1) patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and (2) a sample of the general population. We generated odds ratios using logistic regressions to evaluate quartiles of serum ghrelin or serum leptin, adjusting for known risk factors for Barrett's esophagus. We evaluated potential interaction variables using cross products and ran stratified analyses to generate stratum-specific odds ratios. RESULTS: A total of 886 participants were included in the analysis. Higher ghrelin concentrations were associated with an increased risk of Barrett's esophagus, when compared to the population controls, but not the GERD controls. Ghrelin concentrations were not associated with the frequency of GERD symptoms, but ghrelin's relationship with Barrett's esophagus varied significantly with the frequency of GERD symptoms. Leptin concentrations were positively associated with at least weekly GERD symptoms among the population controls and were inversely associated with Barrett's esophagus only among the GERD controls. Adjusting for waist circumference did not change the main associations. CONCLUSION: Higher levels of ghrelin were associated with an increased risk of Barrett's esophagus among the general population. In contrast, leptin was positively associated with frequent GERD symptoms, but inversely associated with the risk of Barrett's esophagus among the GERD controls.

Oral Bisphosphonate Exposure and the Risk of Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers.

The association between oral bisphosphonate use and upper gastrointestinal cancer has been controversial. Therefore, we examined the association with esophageal and gastric cancer within the Kaiser Permanente, Northern California population. A total of 1,011 cases of esophageal (squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma) and 1,923 cases of gastric adenocarcinoma (cardia, non-cardia and other) diagnosed between 1997 and 2011 from the Kaiser Permanente, Northern California cancer registry were matched to 49,886 and 93,747 controls, respectively. Oral bisphosphonate prescription fills at least one year prior to the index date were extracted. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the associations between prospectively evaluated oral bisphosphonate use with incident esophageal and gastric cancer diagnoses with adjustment for potential confounders. After adjustment for potential confounders, no significant associations were found for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OR 0.88; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.52), esophageal adenocarcinoma (OR 0.68; 95% CI: 0.37, 1.24), or gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma (OR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.59, 1.18), but we observed an adverse association with gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (OR 1.64; 95% CI: 1.07, 2.50). In conclusion, we observed no association between oral bisphosphonate use and esophageal cancer risk within a large community-based population. A significant association was detected with gastric cardia and other adenocarcinoma risk, although this needs to be replicated.

Adiponectin May Modify the Risk of Barrett's Esophagus in Patients With Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Abdominal obesity and increasing body mass index are risk factors for esophageal adenocarcinoma and its main precursor, Barrett's esophagus; however, there are no known biological mechanisms for these associations or regarding why only some patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease develop Barrett's esophagus. We evaluated the association between Barrett's esophagus and multimers of an adipose-associated hormone, adiponectin. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study evaluating the associations between adiponectin (total, high-molecular-weight, and low-/medium-molecular-weight) and Barrett's esophagus within the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population. Patients with a new diagnosis of Barrett's esophagus (cases) were matched to patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) without Barrett's esophagus and to population controls. RESULTS: Complete serologic and epidemiologic data were available for 284 cases, 294 GERD controls, and 285 population controls. Increasing adiponectin levels were a risk factor for Barrett's esophagus among patients with GERD (total adiponectin fourth vs first quartile odds ratio [OR], 1.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-3.27; high-molecular-weight adiponectin OR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.00-2.73; low-/medium-molecular-weight adiponectin OR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.33-3.56), but not compared with population controls. The associations were significantly stronger among patients reporting frequent GERD symptoms and among smokers (P values interaction < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Adiponectin levels are associated positively with the risk of Barrett's esophagus among patients with GERD and among smokers, but not among population controls without GERD symptoms. Higher adiponectin concentrations either independently may contribute to the aberrant healing of esophageal injury into Barrett's esophagus or be a marker for other factors.