Impact of Risk Factors on COVID-19 Outcomes in Unvaccinated People With Rheumatic Diseases: A Comparative Analysis of Pandemic Epochs Using the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry.

OBJECTIVE: Approximately one third of individuals worldwide have not received a COVID-19 vaccine. Although studies have investigated risk factors linked to severe COVID-19 among unvaccinated people with rheumatic diseases (RDs), we know less about whether these factors changed as the pandemic progressed. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 in unvaccinated individuals in different pandemic epochs corresponding to major variants of concern. METHODS: Patients with RDs and COVID-19 were entered into the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry between March 2020 and June 2022. An ordinal logistic regression model (not hospitalized, hospitalized, and death) was used with date of COVID-19 diagnosis, age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, comorbidities, RD activity, medications, and the human development index (HDI) as covariates. The main analysis included all unvaccinated patients across COVID-19 pandemic epochs; subanalyses stratified patients according to RD types. RESULTS: Among 19,256 unvaccinated people with RDs and COVID-19, those who were older, male, had more comorbidities, used glucocorticoids, had higher disease activity, or lived in lower HDI regions had worse outcomes across epochs. For those with rheumatoid arthritis, sulfasalazine and B-cell-depleting therapy were associated with worse outcomes, and tumor necrosis factor inhibitors were associated with improved outcomes. In those with connective tissue disease or vasculitis, B-cell-depleting therapy was associated with worse outcomes. CONCLUSION: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes were similar throughout pandemic epochs in unvaccinated people with RDs. Ongoing efforts, including vaccination, are needed to reduce COVID-19 severity in this population, particularly in those with medical and social vulnerabilities identified in this study.

Characteristics associated with poor COVID-19 outcomes in people with psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis and axial spondyloarthritis: data from the COVID-19 PsoProtect and Global Rheumatology Alliance physician-reported registries.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate factors associated with severe COVID-19 in people with psoriasis (PsO), psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). METHODS: Demographic data, clinical characteristics and COVID-19 outcome severity of adults with PsO, PsA and axSpA were obtained from two international physician-reported registries. A three-point ordinal COVID-19 severity scale was defined: no hospitalisation, hospitalisation (and no death) and death. ORs were estimated using multivariable ordinal logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 5045 cases, 18.3% had PsO, 45.5% PsA and 36.3% axSpA. Most (83.6%) were not hospitalised, 14.6% were hospitalised and 1.8% died. Older age was non-linearly associated with COVID-19 severity. Male sex (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.83), cardiovascular, respiratory, renal, metabolic and cancer comorbidities (ORs 1.25-2.89), moderate/high disease activity and/or glucocorticoid use (ORs 1.39-2.23, vs remission/low disease activity and no glucocorticoids) were associated with increased odds of severe COVID-19. Later pandemic time periods (ORs 0.42-0.52, vs until 15 June 2020), PsO (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.65, vs PsA) and baseline exposure to TNFi, IL17i and IL-23i/IL-12+23i (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.73; OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.87; OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.98; respectively; vs no disease-modifying antirheumatic drug) were associated with reduced odds of severe COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Older age, male sex, comorbidity burden, higher disease activity and glucocorticoid intake were associated with more severe COVID-19. Later pandemic time periods, PsO and exposure to TNFi, IL17i and IL-23i/IL-12+23i were associated with less severe COVID-19. These findings will enable risk stratification and inform management decisions for patients with PsO, PsA and axSpA during COVID-19 waves or similar future respiratory pandemics.

An Analysis COVID-19 in Mexico: a Prediction of Severity.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes a mild illness in most cases; forecasting COVID-19-associated mortality and the demand for hospital beds and ventilators are crucial for rationing countries' resources. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate factors associated with the severity of COVID-19 in Mexico and to develop and validate a score to predict severity in patients with COVID-19 infection in Mexico. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. PARTICIPANTS: We included 1,435,316 patients with COVID-19 included before the first vaccine application in Mexico; 725,289 (50.5%) were men; patient's mean age (standard deviation (SD)) was 43.9 (16.9) years; 21.7% of patients were considered severe COVID-19 because they were hospitalized, died or both. MAIN MEASURES: We assessed demographic variables, smoking status, pregnancy, and comorbidities. Backward selection of variables was used to derive and validate a model to predict the severity of COVID-19. KEY RESULTS: We developed a logistic regression model with 14 main variables, splines, and interactions that may predict the probability of COVID-19 severity (area under the curve for the validation cohort = 82.4%). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a new model able to predict the severity of COVID-19 in Mexican patients. This model could be helpful in epidemiology and medical decisions.

Ultrasound is not associated with the presence of systemic autoimmunity or symptoms in individuals at risk for rheumatoid arthritis.

Objective: To identify whether musculoskeletal ultrasound (MSUS) abnormalities are associated with specific phases of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) development in individuals at risk of RA. Methods: This is a prospective cohort study of individuals at risk of developing RA, namely first-degree relatives of patients with RA (RA-FDRs) without evidence of established rheumatic disease at inclusion. The inflammatory activity on MSUS was assessed according to a validated score (SONAR). Active MSUS was defined as a total B-mode score greater than 8, including at least one joint with significant synovitis (grade 2 or 3) or significant synovial hyperaemia (Doppler score greater than 1). We used logistic regression to analyse associations between MSUS findings and recognised preclinical phases of RA development, adjusting for other demographic and biological characteristics. Results: A total of 273 RA-FDRs were analysed, of whom 23 (8%) were anticitrullinated protein autoantibodies-positive, 58 (21%) had unclassified arthritis and 96 (35%) had an active MSUS, which was only associated with unclassified arthritis (OR: 1.8, 95% CI 1.0 to 3.3). Conclusion: In individuals at risk of RA, active MSUS was associated with the presence of unclassified arthritis, but not with any of the earlier described phases of RA development. These findings do not support an indiscriminate use of ultrasound in a screening strategy for preclinical RA.

Drug retention of biological DMARD in rheumatoid arthritis patients: the role of baseline characteristics and disease evolution.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of the evolution in physician-reported and patient-reported outcomes with decision to stop biological DMARDs (bDMARDs) in RA. The contribution of baseline characteristics is well established, but little is known about how the disease evolution influences the decision to discontinue therapy. METHODS: RA patients who initiated a bDMARD treatment from 2009 and with information on date of visit were pooled from seven European RA registers. Each outcome was divided into baseline assessments (capturing the inter-individual differences at drug initiation) and changes from baseline at subsequent visits (capturing the individual evolution). Cox regression models were used to examine their association with drug discontinuation, adjusting for baseline patient and co-therapy characteristics and stratifying by register and calendar year of drug initiation. RESULTS: A total of 25 077 patients initiated a bDMARDs (18 507 a TNF-inhibitor, 3863 tocilizumab and 2707 abatacept) contributing an amount of 46 456.8 patient-years. Overall, drug discontinuation was most strongly associated with a poor evolution of the DAS28, with a hazard ratio of 1.34 (95% CI 1.29, 1.40), followed by its baseline value. A change of Physician Global Assessment was the next strongest predictor of discontinuation, then the Patient Global Assessment. CONCLUSIONS: The decision to discontinue treatments appears to be mostly influenced by DAS28 and particularly its evolution over time, followed by Physician Global Assessment evolution, suggesting that the decision to stop bDMARDs relies more on the physician's than on the patient's global assessment.

The role of female hormonal factors in the development of rheumatoid arthritis.

RA is the most common chronic systemic autoimmune disease, with a higher prevalence in women, suggesting female hormonal factors play a role in the development of the disease. However, many controversies still exist. The aim of this review was to appraise data from recent research concerning female hormonal factors and their association with RA disease development. The study of female hormonal factors is challenging because serum levels may differ throughout a woman's lifetime and interact with various environmental, immunological, genetic and endocrine factors influencing the development of autoimmunity. As some female hormonal factors may be potentially modifiable, understanding their impact on RA development is clinically relevant and may result in specific preventive interventions in high-risk populations.