Health and economic burden of insufficient physical activity in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: Insufficient physical activity (PA) was estimated to cause 4.8% of deaths and 2.6% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to noncommunicable diseases in Saudi Arabia in 2019. While Saudi Arabia is already achieving great improvements, we predict the health and economic burden of insufficient PA up to 2040 to present a case for policy makers to invest more in the uptake of PA. METHODS: Using a population health model to estimate avoidable health loss, we identified four causes of health loss related to low PA (cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer) and estimated the deaths and DALYs from these causes. We projected the expected disease burden until 2040 under alternative assumptions about future PA levels and trends by using three health scenarios: baseline (no change in 2019 PA levels), intervention (81% of the population achieving sufficient PA levels), and ideal (65% of population: moderate PA, 30%: high PA, and 5%: inactive). We applied an "intrinsic value" approach to estimate the economic impact of each scenario. RESULTS: Overall, we estimate that between 2023 and 2040, about 80,000 to 110,000 deaths from all causes and 2.0 million to 2.9 million DALYs could be avoided by increasing PA levels in Saudi Arabia. The average annual economic loss from insufficient PA is valued at 0.49% to 0.68% of the current gross domestic product, with an average of US$5.4 billion to US$7.6 billion annually till 2040. The most avoidable disease burden and economic losses are expected among males and because of ischemic heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights that low PA levels will have considerable health and economic impacts in Saudi Arabia if people remain inactive and do not start following interventions. There is an urgent need to develop innovative programs and policies to encourage PA among all age and sex groups.

The impact of seven major noncommunicable diseases on direct medical costs, absenteeism, and presenteeism in Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

AIMS: To estimate the current burden of seven major noncommunicable diseases on direct medical costs, absenteeism, and presenteeism in the six countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from pre-existing datasets and the literature. We identified seven major noncommunicable diseases for which data were available: coronary heart disease, stroke, type-2 diabetes mellitus, breast cancer, colon cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma. We estimated the per unit cost (the annual cost of treating each illness for one person) of each disease, multiplied per unit cost by disease prevalence counts to generate disease-specific costs, and then summed across diseases. We calculated the cost of absenteeism and presenteeism by multiplying the gross domestic product per person in the labor force by the loss in productivity from each disease due to absenteeism and presenteeism, respectively, and the prevalence in the labor force of each disease. RESULTS: We estimate that the direct medical costs of seven major noncommunicable diseases in Gulf Cooperation Council countries are $16.7 billion (2019 International $), equal to 0.6% of gross domestic product. We estimate that absenteeism and presenteeism due to these seven noncommunicable diseases cost 0.5 and 2.2% of gross domestic product, respectively. LIMITATIONS: Our study does not capture all noncommunicable diseases and does not capture all types of indirect costs. Our cost estimates are particularly sensitive to our assumptions regarding type-2 diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: The economic burden of noncommunicable diseases in Gulf Cooperation Council countries is substantial, suggesting that successful preventive interventions have the potential to improve both population health and reduce costs. Further research is needed to capture a broader array of noncommunicable diseases and to develop more precise estimates.