Recent and projected incidence trends and risk of anal cancer among people with HIV in North america.

BACKGROUND: Anal cancer risk is elevated among people with HIV (PWH). Recent anal cancer incidence patterns among PWH in the United States (US) and Canada remain unclear. It is unknown how the incidence patterns may evolve in future years. METHODS: Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design, we investigated absolute anal cancer incidence and incidence trends in the US, Canada, and different US regions. We further estimated relative risk compared with persons without HIV, relative risk among various subgroups, and projected future anal cancer burden among US PWH. RESULTS: During 2001-2016, in the US, age-standardized anal cancer incidence declined 2.2%/year (95%CI=-4.4% to -0.1%), particularly in the Western region (-3.8%/year [95%CI=-6.5% to -0.9%]. In Canada, incidence remained stable. Considerable geographic variation in risk was observed by US regions (eg, over four-fold risk in the Midwest and Southeast compared to the Northeast among men who have sex with men [MSM] with HIV). Anal cancer risk increased with a decrease in nadir CD4 count and was elevated among those with opportunistic illnesses. Anal cancer burden among US PWH is expected to decrease in future years (through 2035), but >70% of cases will continue to occur in MSM with HIV and people with AIDS. CONCLUSION: Geographic variation in anal cancer risk and trends may reflect underlying differences in screening practices and HIV epidemic. MSM with HIV and PWH with AIDS will continue to bear most anal cancer burden, highlighting the importance of precision prevention.

The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Hospital Readmissions Among Persons With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States and Canada, 2005-2018: A Collaboration of Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: Hospital readmission trends for persons with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) in North America in the context of policy changes, improved antiretroviral therapy (ART), and aging are not well-known. We examined readmissions during 2005-2018 among adult PWH in NA-ACCORD. METHODS: Linear risk regression estimated calendar trends in 30-day readmissions, adjusted for demographics, CD4 count, AIDS history, virologic suppression (<400 copies/mL), and cohort. RESULTS: We examined 20 189 hospitalizations among 8823 PWH (73% cisgender men, 38% White, 38% Black). PWH hospitalized in 2018 versus 2005 had higher median age (54 vs 44 years), CD4 count (469 vs 274 cells/µL), and virologic suppression (83% vs 49%). Unadjusted 30-day readmissions decreased from 20.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.9%-22.3%) in 2005 to 16.3% (95% CI, 14.1%-18.5%) in 2018. Absolute annual trends were -0.34% (95% CI, -.48% to -.19%) in unadjusted and -0.19% (95% CI, -.35% to -.02%) in adjusted analyses. By index hospitalization reason, there were significant adjusted decreases only for cardiovascular and psychiatric hospitalizations. Readmission reason was most frequently in the same diagnostic category as the index hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Readmissions decreased over 2005-2018 but remained higher than the general population's. Significant decreases after adjusting for CD4 count and virologic suppression suggest that factors alongside improved ART contributed to lower readmissions. Efforts are needed to further prevent readmissions in PWH.

Evaluating Clinic-Based Interventions to Reduce Racial Differences in Mortality Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Mortality remains elevated among Black versus White adults receiving human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care in the United States. We evaluated the effects of hypothetical clinic-based interventions on this mortality gap. METHODS: We computed 3-year mortality under observed treatment patterns among >40 000 Black and >30 000 White adults entering HIV care in the United States from 1996 to 2019. We then used inverse probability weights to impose hypothetical interventions, including immediate treatment and guideline-based follow-up. We considered 2 scenarios: "universal" delivery of interventions to all patients and "focused" delivery of interventions to Black patients while White patients continued to follow observed treatment patterns. RESULTS: Under observed treatment patterns, 3-year mortality was 8% among White patients and 9% among Black patients, for a difference of 1 percentage point (95% confidence interval [CI], .5-1.4). The difference was reduced to 0.5% under universal immediate treatment (95% CI, -.4% to 1.3%) and to 0.2% under universal immediate treatment combined with guideline-based follow-up (95% CI, -1.0% to 1.4%). Under the focused delivery of both interventions to Black patients, the Black-White difference in 3-year mortality was -1.4% (95% CI, -2.3% to -.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical interventions, particularly those focused on enhancing the care of Black patients, could have significantly reduced the mortality gap between Black and White patients entering HIV care from 1996 to 2019.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, Tenofovir Exposure, and the Risk of Poor Coronavirus Disease 19 Outcomes: Real-World Analysis From 6 United States Cohorts Before Vaccine Rollout.

BACKGROUND: People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PWH) may be at increased risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We examined HIV status and COVID-19 severity, and whether tenofovir, used by PWH for HIV treatment and people without HIV (PWoH) for HIV prevention, was associated with protection. METHODS: Within 6 cohorts of PWH and PWoH in the United States, we compared the 90-day risk of any hospitalization, COVID-19 hospitalization, and mechanical ventilation or death by HIV status and by prior exposure to tenofovir, among those with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection between 1 March and 30 November 2020. Adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) were estimated by targeted maximum likelihood estimation, with adjustment for demographics, cohort, smoking, body mass index, Charlson comorbidity index, calendar period of first infection, and CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA levels (in PWH only). RESULTS: Among PWH (n = 1785), 15% were hospitalized for COVID-19 and 5% received mechanical ventilation or died, compared with 6% and 2%, respectively, for PWoH (n = 189 351). Outcome prevalence was lower for PWH and PWoH with prior tenofovir use. In adjusted analyses, PWH were at increased risk compared with PWoH for any hospitalization (aRR, 1.31 [95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.44]), COVID-19 hospitalizations (1.29 [1.15-1.45]), and mechanical ventilation or death (1.51 [1.19-1.92]). Prior tenofovir use was associated with reduced hospitalizations among PWH (aRR, 0.85 [95% confidence interval, .73-.99]) and PWoH (0.71 [.62-.81]). CONCLUSIONS: Before COVID-19 vaccine availability, PWH were at greater risk for severe outcomes than PWoH. Tenofovir was associated with a significant reduction in clinical events for both PWH and PWoH.

Early Antiretroviral Therapy Not Associated With Higher Cryptococcal Meningitis Mortality in People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in High-Income Countries: An International Collaborative Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from low- and middle-income settings suggested that early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) leads to higher mortality rates among people with HIV (PWH) who present with cryptococcal meningitis (CM). There is limited information about the impact of ART timing on mortality rates in similar people in high-income settings. METHODS: Data on ART-naive PWH with CM diagnosed from 1994 to 2012 from Europe/North America were pooled from the COHERE, NA-ACCORD, and CNICS HIV cohort collaborations. Follow-up was considered to span from the date of CM diagnosis to earliest of the following: death, last follow-up, or 6 months. We used marginal structural models to mimic an RCT comparing the effects of early (within 14 days of CM) and late (14-56 days after CM) ART on all-cause mortality, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of 190 participants identified, 33 (17%) died within 6 months. At CM diagnosis, their median age (interquartile range) was 38 (33-44) years; the median CD4+ T-cell count, 19/µL (10-56/µL); and median HIV viral load, 5.3 (4.9-5.6) log10 copies/mL. Most participants (n = 157 [83%]) were male, and 145 (76%) started ART. Mimicking an RCT, with 190 people in each group, there were 13 deaths among participants with an early ART regimen and 20 deaths among those with a late ART regimen. The crude and adjusted hazard ratios comparing late with early ART were 1.28 (95% confidence interval, .64-2.56) and 1.40 (.66-2.95), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We found little evidence that early ART was associated with higher mortality rates among PWH presenting with CM in high-income settings, although confidence intervals were wide.

Optimizing Treatment for Human Immunodeficiency Virus to Improve Clinical Outcomes Using Precision Medicine.

In first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment, some subgroups of patients may respond better to an efavirenz-based regimen than an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI)-based regimen, or vice versa, due to patient characteristics modifying treatment effects. Using data based on nearly 16,000 patients from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design from 2009-2016, statistical methods for precision medicine were employed to estimate an optimal treatment rule that minimizes the 5-year risk of the composite outcome of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining illnesses, serious non-AIDS events, and all-cause mortality. The treatment rules considered were functions that recommend either an efavirenz- or InSTI-based regimen conditional on baseline patient characteristics such as demographic information, laboratory results, and health history. The estimated 5-year risk under the estimated optimal treatment rule was 10.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.6, 11.3), corresponding to an absolute risk reduction of 2.3% (95% CI: 0.9, 3.8) when compared with recommending an efavirenz-based regimen for all patients and 2.6% (95% CI: 1.0, 4.2) when compared with recommending an InSTI-based regimen for all. Tailoring ART to individual patient characteristics may reduce 5-year risk of the composite outcome compared with assigning all patients the same drug regimen.

Effect of Adopting the New Race-Free 2021 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Creatinine Equation on Racial Differences in Kidney Disease Progression Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of adopting a race-free estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) creatinine (eGFRcr) equation on racial differences in chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression among people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) is unknown. METHODS: We defined eGFR stages using the original race-adjusted Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) eGFRcr equation and the new race-free CKD-EPI eGFRcr equation. We then estimated 5-year probabilities of transitioning from baseline kidney function to more advanced eGFR stages and examined the association of race (black vs white) with rates of CKD progression using Markov models. RESULTS: With the race-adjusted eGFRcr equation, black participants (n = 31 298) had a lower risk of progressing from eGFR stage 1 to 2 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], .73-.82), an equal risk of progressing from stage 2 to 3 (1.00; .92-.07) and a 3-fold risk of progressing from stage 3 to 4 or 5 (3.06; 2.60-3.62), compared with white participants (n = 27 542). When we used the race-free eGFRcr equation, 16% of black participants were reclassified into a more severe eGFR stage at baseline. The reclassified black individuals had a higher prevalence of CKD risk factors than black PWH who were not reclassified. With the race-free eGFRcr equation, black participants had a higher risk of disease progression across all eGFR stages than white participants. CONCLUSIONS: The original eGFRcr equation systematically masked a subgroup of black PWH who are at high-risk of CKD progression. The new race-free eGFRcr equation unmasks these individuals and may allow for earlier detection and management of CKD.

Analysis of Severe Illness After Postvaccination COVID-19 Breakthrough Among Adults With and Without HIV in the US.

Importance: Understanding the severity of postvaccination SARS-CoV-2 (ie, COVID-19) breakthrough illness among people with HIV (PWH) can inform vaccine guidelines and risk-reduction recommendations. Objective: To estimate the rate and risk of severe breakthrough illness among vaccinated PWH and people without HIV (PWoH) who experience a breakthrough infection. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, the Corona-Infectious-Virus Epidemiology Team (CIVET-II) collaboration included adults (aged ≥18 years) with HIV who were receiving care and were fully vaccinated by June 30, 2021, along with PWoH matched according to date fully vaccinated, age group, race, ethnicity, and sex from 4 US integrated health systems and academic centers. Those with postvaccination COVID-19 breakthrough before December 31, 2021, were eligible. Exposures: HIV infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was severe COVID-19 breakthrough illness, defined as hospitalization within 28 days after a breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection with a primary or secondary COVID-19 discharge diagnosis. Discrete time proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs of severe breakthrough illness within 28 days of breakthrough COVID-19 by HIV status adjusting for demographic variables, COVID-19 vaccine type, and clinical factors. The proportion of patients who received mechanical ventilation or died was compared by HIV status. Results: Among 3649 patients with breakthrough COVID-19 (1241 PWH and 2408 PWoH), most were aged 55 years or older (2182 patients [59.8%]) and male (3244 patients [88.9%]). The cumulative incidence of severe illness in the first 28 days was low and comparable between PWoH and PWH (7.3% vs 6.7%; risk difference, -0.67%; 95% CI, -2.58% to 1.23%). The risk of severe breakthrough illness was 59% higher in PWH with CD4 cell counts less than 350 cells/µL compared with PWoH (aHR, 1.59; 95% CI, 0.99 to 2.46; P = .049). In multivariable analyses among PWH, being female, older, having a cancer diagnosis, and lower CD4 cell count were associated with increased risk of severe breakthrough illness, whereas previous COVID-19 was associated with reduced risk. Among 249 hospitalized patients, 24 (9.6%) were mechanically ventilated and 20 (8.0%) died, with no difference by HIV status. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, the risk of severe COVID-19 breakthrough illness within 28 days of a breakthrough infection was low among vaccinated PWH and PWoH. PWH with moderate or severe immune suppression had a higher risk of severe breakthrough infection and should be included in groups prioritized for additional vaccine doses and risk-reduction strategies.

County-Level Life Expectancy Change: A Novel Metric for Monitoring Public Health.

Life expectancy (LE) is a core measure of population health. Studies have confirmed the predictive importance of modifiable determinants on LE, but less is known about their association with LE change over time at the US county level. In addition, we explore the predictive association of LE change with COVID-19 mortality. We used a linear regression model to calculate county-level annual LE change from 2011 to 2016, and categorized LE change (≤-0.1 years change per year as decreasing, ≥0.1 years as increasing, otherwise no change). A multinomial regression model was used to determine the association between modifiable determinants of health indicators from the County Health Rankings and LE change. A Poisson regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between change in life expectancy and COVID-19 mortality through September 2021. Among 2943 counties, several modifiable determinants of health were significantly associated with odds of being in increasing LE or decreasing LE counties, including adult smoking, obesity, unemployment, and proportion of children in poverty. The presence of an increasing LE in 2011-2016, as compared to no change, was significantly associated with a 5% decrease in COVID-19 mortality between 2019 and 2021 (ß = 0.953, 95% CI: 0.943, 0.963). We demonstrated that change in LE at the county level is a useful metric for tracking public health progress, measuring the impact of public health initiatives, and gauging preparedness and vulnerability for future public health emergencies.

CD4/CD8 Ratio and Cancer Risk Among Adults With HIV.

BACKGROUND: Independent of CD4 cell count, a low CD4/CD8 ratio in people with HIV (PWH) is associated with deleterious immune senescence, activation, and inflammation, which may contribute to carcinogenesis and excess cancer risk. We examined whether low CD4/CD8 ratios predicted cancer among PWH in the United States and Canada. METHODS: We examined all cancer-free PWH with 1 or more CD4/CD8 values from North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design observational cohorts with validated cancer diagnoses between 1998 and 2016. We evaluated the association between time-lagged CD4/CD8 ratio and risk of specific cancers in multivariable, time-updated Cox proportional hazard models using restricted cubic spines. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, hepatitis C virus, and time-updated CD4 cell count, HIV RNA, and history of AIDS-defining illness. RESULTS: Among 83 893 PWH, there were 5628 incident cancers, including lung cancer (n = 755), Kaposi sarcoma (n = 501), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 497), and anal cancer (n = 439). The median age at cohort entry was 43 years. The overall median 6-month lagged CD4/CD8 ratio was 0.52 (interquartile range = 0.30-0.82). Compared with a 6-month lagged CD4/CD8 of 0.80, a CD4/CD8 of 0.30 was associated with increased risk of any incident cancer (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.24 [95% confidence interval = 1.14 to 1.35]). The CD4/CD8 ratio was also inversely associated with non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Kaposi sarcoma, lung cancer, anal cancer, and colorectal cancer in adjusted analyses (all 2-sided P < .05). Results were similar using 12-, 18-, and 24-month lagged CD4/CD8 values. CONCLUSIONS: A low CD4/CD8 ratio up to 24 months before cancer diagnosis was independently associated with increased cancer risk in PWH and may serve as a clinical biomarker.

The Association Between HIV Status, Estradiol, and Sex Hormone Binding Globulin Among Premenopausal Women in the Women's Interagency HIV Study.

Background: Characterizing estradiol among women with HIV may have implications for breast cancer and cardiovascular disease risk but has not been adequately explored. We quantified differences in total (E2), free (FE2) estradiol, and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) by HIV and viral suppression status. Methods: Women from a substudy (2003-2006) within the Women's Interagency HIV Study (IRB approved at each participating site) were included if they reported: a period in the last six months, were not pregnant/breastfeeding, no oophorectomy, and no exogenous hormone use in the prior year. Serum was collected on days 2-4 of the menstrual cycle. We assessed differences in biomarkers at 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles by HIV and viral suppression status using weighted quantile regression. Results: Among 643 women (68% with HIV) median age was 37 years. All E2 percentiles were significantly (p < 0.05) lower in women with suppressed viral load versus women without HIV (4-10 pg/mL). The 25th and 50th percentile of E2 were 4-5 pg/mL lower in women with unsuppressed viral load compared to women without HIV (p < 0.05). The 25th and 50th percentile of SHBG was significantly higher in women with unsuppressed viral load compared to women without HIV (10 and 12 nmol/L, respectively). There were no consistent differences in estradiol or SHBG by suppression status. Conclusions: There were no differences in FE2 but significantly lower E2 and higher SHBG among women with HIV versus without HIV. Further research is merited in a large contemporary sample to clarify the clinical implications of these findings.

Five-Year Mortality for Adults Entering Human Immunodeficiency Virus Care Under Universal Early Treatment Compared With the General US Population.

BACKGROUND: Mortality among adults with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains elevated over those in the US general population, even in the years after entry into HIV care. We explore whether the elevation in 5-year mortality would have persisted if all adults with HIV had initiated antiretroviral therapy within 3 months of entering care. METHODS: Among 82 766 adults entering HIV care at North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration clinical sites in the United States, we computed mortality over 5 years since entry into HIV care under observed treatment patterns. We then used inverse probability weights to estimate mortality under universal early treatment. To compare mortality with those for similar individuals in the general population, we used National Center for Health Statistics data to construct a cohort representing the subset of the US population matched to study participants on key characteristics. RESULTS: For the entire study period (1999-2017), the 5-year mortality among adults with HIV was 7.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.6%-8.2%) higher than expected based on the US general population. Under universal early treatment, the elevation in mortality for people with HIV would have been 7.2% (95% CI: 5.8%-8.6%). In the most recent calendar period examined (2011-2017), the elevation in mortality for people with HIV was 2.6% (95% CI: 2.0%-3.3%) under observed treatment patterns and 2.1% (.0%-4.2%) under universal early treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Expanding early treatment may modestly reduce, but not eliminate, the elevation in mortality for people with HIV.

Comparative outcomes for mature T-cell and NK/T-cell lymphomas in people with and without HIV and to AIDS-defining lymphomas.

There are no studies comparing the prognosis for mature T-cell lymphoma (TCL) in people with HIV (PWH) to people without HIV (PWoH) and to AIDS-defining B-cell lymphomas (A-BCLs) in the modern antiretroviral therapy era. North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design and Comprehensive Oncology Measures for Peripheral T-cell Lymphoma Treatment are cohorts that enroll patients diagnosed with HIV and TCL, respectively. In our study, 52, 64, 101, 500, and 246 PWH with histologic confirmation of TCL, primary central nervous system lymphoma, Burkitt's lymphoma, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL), respectively, and 450 TCLs without HIV were eligible for analysis. At the time of TCL diagnosis, anaplastic large-cell lymphoma (ALCL) was the most common TCL subtype within PWH. Although PWH with TCL diagnosed between 1996 and 2009 experienced a low 5-year survival probability at 0.23 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.13, 0.41), we observed a marked improvement in their survival when diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 (0.69; 95% CI: 0.48, 1; P = .04) in contrast to TCLs among PWoH (0.45; 95% CI: 0.41, 0.51; P = .53). Similarly, PWH with ALCLs diagnosed between 1996 and 2009 were associated with a conspicuously inferior 5-year survival probability (0.17; 95% CI: 0.07, 0.42) and consistently lagged behind A-BCL subtypes such as Burkitt's (0.43; 95% CI:0.33, 0.57; P = .09) and DLBCL (0.17; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.46; P = .11) and behind HL (0.57; 95% CI: 0.50, 0.65; P < .0001). Despite a small number, those diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 experienced a remarkable improvement in survival (0.67; 95% CI: 0.3, 1) in comparison with PWoH (0.76; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.87; P = .58). Thus, our analysis confirms improved overall survival for aggressive B- and T-cell malignancies among PWH in the last decade.

Do contemporary antiretrovirals increase the risk of end-stage liver disease? Signals from patients starting therapy in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design.

PURPOSE: Despite effective antiretroviral therapy, rates of end-stage liver disease (ESLD) remain high. It is not clear whether contemporary antiretrovirals contribute to the risk of ESLD. METHODS: We included patients from cohorts with validated ESLD data in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Patients had to initiate antiretroviral therapy after 1 January 2004 with a nucleos(t)ide backbone of either abacavir/lamivudine or tenofovir/emtricitabine and a contemporary third (anchor) drug. Patients were followed until a first ESLD event, death, end of a cohort's ESLD validation period, loss to follow-up or 31 December 2015. We estimated associations between cumulative exposure to each drug and ESLD using a hierarchical Bayesian survival model with weakly informative prior distributions. RESULTS: Among 10 564 patients included from 12 cohorts, 62 had an ESLD event. Of the nine anchor drugs, boosted protease inhibitors atazanavir and darunavir had the strongest signals for ESLD, with increasing hazard ratios (HR) and narrowing credible intervals (CrI), from a prior HR of 1.5 (95% CrI 0.32-7.1) per 5 year's exposure to posterior HRs respectively of 1.8 (95% CrI 0.82-3.9) and 2.0 (95% CrI 0.86-4.7). Both backbones and efavirenz showed no signal. Hepatitis C coinfection was the most important covariate risk factor (HR 4.4, 95% CrI 2.6-7.0). CONCLUSIONS: While contemporary antiretrovirals pose less risk for ESLD than hepatitis coinfection, atazanavir and darunavir had a toxicity signal. We show how hierarchical Bayesian modelling can be used to detect toxicity signals in cohort event monitoring data even with complex treatments and few events.

Discrimination and Calibration of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 for Predicting Mortality Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in North America.

BACKGROUND: The updated Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 combines general and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-specific biomarkers to generate a continuous score that accurately discriminates risk of mortality in diverse cohorts of persons with HIV (PWH), but a score alone is difficult to interpret. Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration (NA-ACCORD), we translate VACS Index 2.0 scores into validated probability estimates of mortality. METHODS: Because complete mortality ascertainment is essential for accurate calibration, we restricted analyses to cohorts with mortality from the National Death Index or equivalent sources. VACS Index 2.0 components were ascertained from October 1999 to April 2018. Mortality was observed up to March 2019. Calibration curves compared predicted (estimated by fitting a gamma model to the score) to observed mortality overall and within subgroups: cohort (VACS/NA-ACCORD subset), sex, age <50 or ≥50 years, race/ethnicity, HIV-1 RNA ≤500 or >500 copies/mL, CD4 count <350 or ≥350 cells/µL, and years 1999-2009 or 2010-2018. Because mortality rates have decreased over time, the final model was limited to 2010-2018. RESULTS: Among 37230 PWH in VACS and 8061 PWH in the NA-ACCORD subset, median age was 53 and 44 years; 3% and 19% were women; and 48% and 39% were black. Discrimination in NA-ACCORD (C-statistic = 0.842 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .830-.854]) was better than in VACS (C-statistic = 0.813 [95% CI, .809-.817]). Predicted and observed mortality largely overlapped in VACS and the NA-ACCORD subset, overall and within subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this validation, VACS Index 2.0 can reliably estimate probability of all-cause mortality, at various follow-up times, among PWH in North America.

The shifting age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To project the future age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States, under expected trends in HIV diagnosis and survival (baseline scenario) and achieving the ending the HIV epidemic (EHE) goals of a 75% reduction in HIV diagnoses from 2020 to 2025 and sustaining levels to 2030 (EHE75% scenario). DESIGN: An agent-based simulation model with mathematical functions estimated from North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design data and parameters from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's annual HIV surveillance reports. METHODS: The PEARL (ProjEcting Age, MultimoRbidity, and PoLypharmacy in adults with HIV) model simulated individuals in 15 subgroups of sex-and-HIV acquisition risk and race/ethnicity. Simulation outcomes from the baseline scenario are compared with outcomes from the EHE75% scenario. RESULTS: Under the baseline scenario, PEARL projects a substantial increase in number of ART-users over time, reaching a population of 909 638 [95% uncertainty range (UR): 878 449-946 513] by 2030. The overall median age increased from 50 years in 2020 to 52 years in 2030, with 23% of ART-users age ≥65 years in 2030. Under the EHE75% scenario, the projected number of ART-users was 718 348 [703 044-737 817] (median age = 56 years) in 2030, with a 70% relative reduction in ART-users <30 years and a 4% relative reduction in ART-users age ≥65 years compared to baseline, and persistent heterogeneities in projected numbers by sex-and-HIV acquisition risk group and race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: It is critical to prepare healthcare systems to meet the impending demand of the US population aging with HIV.

Risk of HCC With Hepatitis B Viremia Among HIV/HBV-Coinfected Persons in North America.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Chronic HBV is the predominant cause of HCC worldwide. Although HBV coinfection is common in HIV, the determinants of HCC in HIV/HBV coinfection are poorly characterized. We examined the predictors of HCC in a multicohort study of individuals coinfected with HIV/HBV. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We included persons coinfected with HIV/HBV within 22 cohorts of the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (1995-2016). First occurrence of HCC was verified by medical record review and/or cancer registry. We used multivariable Cox regression to determine adjusted HRs (aHRs [95% CIs]) of factors assessed at cohort entry (age, sex, race, body mass index), ever during observation (heavy alcohol use, HCV), or time-updated (HIV RNA, CD4+ percentage, diabetes mellitus, HBV DNA). Among 8,354 individuals coinfected with HIV/HBV (median age, 43 years; 93% male; 52.4% non-White), 115 HCC cases were diagnosed over 65,392 person-years (incidence rate, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.5-2.1] events/1,000 person-years). Risk factors for HCC included age 40-49 years (aHR, 1.97 [1.22-3.17]), age ≥50 years (aHR, 2.55 [1.49-4.35]), HCV coinfection (aHR, 1.61 [1.07-2.40]), and heavy alcohol use (aHR, 1.52 [1.04-2.23]), while time-updated HIV RNA >500 copies/mL (aHR, 0.90 [0.56-1.43]) and time-updated CD4+ percentage <14% (aHR, 1.03 [0.56-1.90]) were not. The risk of HCC was increased with time-updated HBV DNA >200 IU/mL (aHR, 2.22 [1.42-3.47]) and was higher with each 1.0 log10 IU/mL increase in time-updated HBV DNA (aHR, 1.18 [1.05-1.34]). HBV suppression with HBV-active antiretroviral therapy (ART) for ≥1 year significantly reduced HCC risk (aHR, 0.42 [0.24-0.73]). CONCLUSION: Individuals coinfected with HIV/HBV on ART with detectable HBV viremia remain at risk for HCC. To gain maximal benefit from ART for HCC prevention, sustained HBV suppression is necessary.

Trends in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence and Risk Among Persons With HIV in the US and Canada, 1996-2015.

Importance: People with HIV (PWH) are often coinfected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV), leading to increased risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but few cohort studies have had sufficient power to describe the trends of HCC incidence and risk among PWH in the combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) era. Objective: To determine the temporal trends of HCC incidence rates (IRs) and to compare rates by risk factors among PWH in the cART era. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) study, which was conducted between 1996 and 2015. NA-ACCORD pooled individual-level data from 22 HIV clinical and interval cohorts of PWH in the US and Canada. PWH aged 18 years or older with available CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA data were enrolled. Data analyses were completed in March 2020. Exposures: HBV infection was defined as detection of either HBV surface antigen, HBV e antigen, or HBV DNA in serum or plasma any time during observation. HCV infection was defined by detection of anti-HCV seropositivity, HCV RNA, or detectable genotype in serum or plasma at any time under observation. Main Outcomes and Measures: HCC diagnoses were identified on the basis of review of medical records or cancer registry linkage. Results: Of 109 283 PWH with 723 441 person-years of follow-up, the median (interquartile range) age at baseline was 43 (36-51) years, 93 017 (85.1%) were male, 44 752 (40.9%) were White, 44 322 (40.6%) were Black, 21 343 (19.5%) had HCV coinfection, 6348 (5.8%) had HBV coinfection, and 2082 (1.9%) had triple infection; 451 individuals received a diagnosis of HCC by 2015. Between the early (1996-2000) and modern (2006-2015) cART eras, the crude HCC IR increased from 0.28 to 0.75 case per 1000 person-years. HCC IRs remained constant among HIV-monoinfected persons or those coinfected with HBV, but from 1996 to 2015, IRs increased among PWH coinfected with HCV (from 0.34 cases/1000 person-years in 1996 to 2.39 cases/1000 person-years in 2015) or those with triple infection (from 0.65 cases/1000 person-years in 1996 to 4.49 cases/1000 person-years in 2015). Recent HIV RNA levels greater than or equal to 500 copies/mL (IR ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4-2.4) and CD4 cell counts less than or equal to 500 cells/µL (IR ratio, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.6) were associated with higher HCC risk in the modern cART era. People who injected drugs had higher HCC risk compared with men who had sex with men (IR ratio, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-2.9), adjusted for HBV-HCV coinfection. Conclusions and Relevance: HCC rates among PWH increased significantly over time from 1996 to 2015. PWH coinfected with viral hepatitis, those with higher HIV RNA levels or lower CD4 cell counts, and those who inject drugs had higher HCC risk.

Secular Trends in Breast Cancer Risk Among Women With HIV Initiating ART in North America.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest lower risk of breast cancer in women with HIV versus without HIV. These estimates may be biased by lower life expectancy and younger age distribution of women with HIV. Our analysis evaluated this bias and characterized secular trends in breast cancer among women with HIV initiating antiretroviral therapy. We hypothesized breast cancer risk would increase over time as mortality decreased. SETTING: Women with HIV prescribed antiretroviral therapy in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) from 1997 through 2016. METHODS: We estimated breast cancer hazard (cause-specific hazard ratios) and cumulative incidence accounting for competing risks (subdistribution hazard ratios) to assess changes in breast cancer risk over time. This was assessed overall (1997-2016) and within/across calendar periods. Analyses were adjusted for race/ethnicity and inverse probability weighted for cohort. Cumulative incidence was graphically assessed by calendar period and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: We observed 11,587 women during 1997-2016, contributing 63 incident breast cancer diagnoses and 1,353 deaths [73,445 person-years (median follow-up = 4.5 years)]. Breast cancer cumulative incidence was 3.2% for 1997-2016. We observed no secular trends in breast cancer hazard or cumulative incidence. There were annual declines in the hazard and cumulative incidence of death (cause-specific hazard ratios and subdistribution hazard ratios: 0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.87 to 0.91) which remained within and across calendar periods. CONCLUSIONS: These findings contradict the hypothesis of increasing breast cancer risk with declining mortality over time among women with HIV, suggesting limited impact of changing mortality on breast cancer risk. Additional inquiry is merited as survival improves among women with HIV.