MASH Resolution Index: development and validation of a non-invasive score to detect histological resolution of MASH.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic changes in non-invasive tests, such as changes in alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and MRI proton-density-fat-fraction (MRI-PDFF), may help to detect metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) resolution, but a combination of non-invasive tests may be more accurate than either alone. We developed a novel non-invasive score, the MASH Resolution Index, to detect the histological resolution of MASH. METHODS: This study included a derivation cohort of 95 well-characterised adult participants (67% female) with biopsy-confirmed MASH who underwent contemporaneous laboratory testing, MRI-PDFF and liver biopsy at two time points. The primary objective was to develop a non-invasive score to detect MASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis. The most predictive logistic regression model was selected based on the highest area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), and the lowest Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion. The model was then externally validated in a distinct cohort of 163 participants with MASH from a clinical trial. RESULTS: The median (IQR) age and body mass index were 55 (45-62) years and 32.0 (30-37) kg/m2, respectively, in the derivation cohort. The most accurate model (MASH Resolution Index) included MRI-PDFF, ALT and aspartate aminotransferase. The index had an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.93) for detecting MASH resolution in the derivation cohort. The score calibrated well and performed robustly in a distinct external validation cohort (AUC 0.83, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.91), and outperformed changes in ALT and MRI-PDFF. CONCLUSION: The MASH Resolution Index may be a useful score to non-invasively identify MASH resolution.

Development and Validation of the Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Familial Risk Score to Detect Advanced Fibrosis: A Prospective, Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related fibrosis is heritable, but it is unclear how family history may be used to identify first-degree relatives with advanced fibrosis. We aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score to identify first-degree relatives of probands who have undergone assessment of liver fibrosis who are at higher risk of NAFLD with advanced fibrosis. METHODS: This prospective, cross-sectional, familial study consisted of a derivation cohort from San Diego, California, and a validation cohort from Helsinki, Finland. This study included consecutive adult probands (n = 242) with NAFLD and advanced fibrosis, NAFLD without advanced fibrosis, and non-NAFLD, with at least 1 of their first-degree relatives. All included probands and first-degree relatives underwent evaluation of liver fibrosis, the majority by magnetic resonance elastography. RESULTS: A total of 396 first-degree relatives (64% male) were included. The median age and body mass index were 47 years (interquartile range, 32-62 y) and 27.6 kg/m2 (interquartile range, 24.1-32.5 kg/m2), respectively. Age (1 point), type 2 diabetes (1 point), obesity (2 points), and proband with NAFLD and advanced fibrosis (2 points) were predictors of advanced fibrosis among first-degree relatives in the derivation cohort (n = 220) and formed the NAFLD Familial Risk Score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of the NAFLD Familial Risk Score for detecting advanced fibrosis was 0.94 in the validation cohort (n = 176). The NAFLD Familial Risk Score outperformed the Fibrosis-4 index in the validation cohort (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.94 vs 0.70; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: The NAFLD Familial Risk Score is a simple and accurate clinical tool to identify advanced fibrosis in first-degree relatives. These data may have implications for surveillance in NAFLD.

Low liver fat in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis-related significant fibrosis and cirrhosis is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensation and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Progression to cirrhosis in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is associated with a decrease in liver fat. However, the prognostic significance of liver fat content in NASH-related significant fibrosis and cirrhosis is unclear. AIM: To investigate the risk of decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality stratified by liver fat content in NASH-related significant fibrosis and cirrhosis. METHODS: In this meta-analysis of individual participant data, 456 patients with both magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) and MRI-derived protein density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) were enrolled, and 296 patients with longitudinal follow-up were analysed. MRE combined with fibrosis-4 (MEFIB-index), and MRI-PDFF were used to measure liver fibrosis and fat, respectively. MEFIB-negative, MEFIB-positive+ MRI-PDFF ≥5% and MEFIB-positive+ MRI-PDFF <5% were defined as no significant liver fibrosis, NASH with significant fibrosis and higher liver fat content, and NASH with significant fibrosis and low liver fat content groups, respectively. The primary outcome was hepatic decompensation, HCC and death. RESULTS: The rates of decompensation, HCC and mortality were highest in the NASH with significant fibrosis and low liver fat group (33%, 17% and 17%, respectively), followed by the NASH with significant fibrosis and higher liver fat group (18%, 13% and 13% respectively), and lowest in the no significant fibrosis (MEFIB-negative) group (0%, 1% and 2% respectively). In multivariable-adjusted analysis, low liver fat content was strongly associated (HR = 42.2 [95% CI: 7.5-235.5, p < 0.0001]) with HCC, decompensation and death. Sensitivity analyses for patients with cirrhosis (MRE ≥5 kPa) determined consistent findings. CONCLUSIONS: Low liver fat content in patients with burnt-out NASH-related significant fibrosis and cirrhosis is associated with an increase in hepatic decompensation, HCC and mortality.

Type 2 diabetes, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant-level data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Data are scarce regarding the development of hepatic decompensation in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with and without type 2 diabetes. We aimed to assess the risk of hepatic decompensation in people with NAFLD with and without type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We did a meta-analysis of individual participant-level data from six cohorts in the USA, Japan, and Turkey. Included participants had magnetic resonance elastography between Feb 27, 2007, and June 4, 2021. Eligible studies included those with liver fibrosis characterisation by magnetic resonance elastography, longitudinal assessment for hepatic decompensation and death, and included adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with NAFLD, for whom data were available regarding the presence of type 2 diabetes at baseline. The primary outcome was hepatic decompensation, defined as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, or variceal bleeding. The secondary outcome was the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. We used competing risk regression using the Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) to compare the likelihood of hepatic decompensation in participants with and without type 2 diabetes. Death without hepatic decompensation was a competing event. FINDINGS: Data for 2016 participants (736 with type 2 diabetes; 1280 without type 2 diabetes) from six cohorts were included in this analysis. 1074 (53%) of 2016 participants were female with a mean age of 57·8 years (SD 14·2) years and BMI of 31·3 kg/m2 (SD 7·4). Among 1737 participants (602 with type 2 diabetes and 1135 without type 2 diabetes) with available longitudinal data, 105 participants developed hepatic decompensation over a median follow-up time of 2·8 years (IQR 1·4-5·5). Participants with type 2 diabetes had a significantly higher risk of hepatic decompensation at 1 year (3·37% [95% CI 2·10-5·11] vs 1·07% [0·57-1·86]), 3 years (7·49% [5·36-10·08] vs 2·92% [1·92-4·25]), and 5 years (13·85% [10·43-17·75] vs 3·95% [2·67-5·60]) than participants without type 2 diabetes (p<0·0001). After adjustment for multiple confounders (age, BMI, and race), type 2 diabetes (sHR 2·15 [95% CI 1·39-3·34]; p=0·0006) and glycated haemoglobin (1·31 [95% CI 1·10-1·55]; p=0·0019) were independent predictors of hepatic decompensation. The association between type 2 diabetes and hepatic decompensation remained consistent after adjustment for baseline liver stiffness determined by magnetic resonance elastography. Over a median follow-up of 2·9 years (IQR 1·4-5·7), 22 of 1802 participants analysed (18 of 639 with type 2 diabetes and four of 1163 without type 2 diabetes) developed incident hepatocellular carcinoma. The risk of incident hepatocellular carcinoma was higher in those with type 2 diabetes at 1 year (1·34% [95% CI 0·64-2·54] vs 0·09% [0·01-0·50], 3 years (2·44% [1·36-4·05] vs 0·21% [0·04-0·73]), and 5 years (3·68% [2·18-5·77] vs 0·44% [0·11-1·33]) than in those without type 2 diabetes (p<0·0001). Type 2 diabetes was an independent predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma development (sHR 5·34 [1·67-17·09]; p=0·0048). INTERPRETATION: Among people with NAFLD, the presence of type 2 diabetes is associated with a significantly higher risk of hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma. FUNDING: National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Fibrosis Progression Rate in Biopsy-Proven Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Among People With Diabetes Versus People Without Diabetes: A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are limited data regarding fibrosis progression in biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) compared with people without T2DM. We assessed the time to fibrosis progression in people with T2DM compared with people without T2DM in a large, multicenter, study of people with NAFLD who had paired liver biopsies. METHODS: This study included 447 adult participants (64% were female) with NAFLD who had paired liver biopsies more than 1 year apart. Liver histology was systematically assessed by a central pathology committee blinded to clinical data. The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of a ≥1-stage increase in fibrosis in participants with T2DM compared with participants without T2DM. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age and body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) were 50.9 (11.5) years and 34.7 (6.3), respectively. The median time between biopsies was 3.3 years (interquartile range, 1.8-6.1 years). Participants with T2DM had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of fibrosis progression at 4 years (24% vs 20%), 8 years (60% vs 50%), and 12 years (93% vs 76%) (P = .005). Using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for multiple confounders, T2DM remained an independent predictor of fibrosis progression (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.17-2.43; P = .005). The cumulative incidence of fibrosis regression by ≥1 stage was similar in participants with T2DM compared with participants without T2DM (P = .24). CONCLUSIONS: In this large, multicenter cohort study of well-characterized participants with NAFLD and paired liver biopsies, we found that fibrosis progressed faster in participants with T2DM compared with participants without T2DM. These data have important implications for clinical practice and trial design.

Review article: the role of HSD17B13 on global epidemiology, natural history, pathogenesis and treatment of NAFLD.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) occurs in around a quarter of the global population and is one of the leading causes of chronic liver disease. The phenotypic manifestation and the severity of NAFLD are influenced by an interplay of environmental and genetic factors. Recently, several inactivating variants in the novel 17-Beta hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 13 (HSD17B13) gene have been found to be associated with a reduced risk of chronic liver diseases, including NAFLD. AIMS: To review the existing literature on the epidemiology of HSD17B13 and discuss its role in the natural history, disease pathogenesis and treatment of NAFLD. METHODS: We extensively searched relevant literature in PubMed, Google Scholar, clinicaltrials.gov and the reference list of articles included in the review. RESULTS: HSD17B13 is a liver-specific, lipid droplet (LD)-associated protein that has enzymatic pathways involving steroids, pro-inflammatory lipid mediators and retinol. The estimated prevalence of the best characterised HSD17B13 variant (rs72613567) ranges from 5% in Africa to 34% in East Asia. Loss-of-function variants in HSD17B13 are protective against the progression of NAFLD from simple steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), liver fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Emerging data from mechanistic and preclinical studies with RNA interference (RNAi) and small molecule agents indicate that inhibiting HSD17B13 activity may prevent NAFLD progression. CONCLUSIONS: The loss-of-function polymorphisms of the newly identified HSD17B13 gene mitigate the progression of NAFLD. It is important to understand the exact mechanism by which these variants exert a protective effect and implement the gathered knowledge in the treatment of NAFLD.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence in Alcohol-Associated Cirrhosis: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol is one of the leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, pooled estimates of HCC incidence in alcohol-associated cirrhosis have not been evaluated systematically. We performed a pooled analysis of time-to-event data to provide robust estimates for the incidence of HCC in alcohol-associated cirrhosis. METHODS: Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched from inception to August 2021. Individual patient data were reconstructed from published Kaplan-Meier curves, and a pooled analysis of cumulative HCC incidence was performed using a random-effects model. RESULTS: We screened 5022 articles and included 18 studies (148,333 patients). In the pooled analysis, the cumulative incidence of HCC in alcohol-associated cirrhosis at 1, 5, and 10 years among studies that accounted for the competing risk of death without HCC was 1%, 3%, and 9%, respectively. A secondary analysis by traditional meta-analysis determined that the HCC incidence rate was higher in cohorts enrolled in a HCC surveillance program (18.6 vs 4.8 per 1000 person-years; P = .001) vs those who were not enrolled in a surveillance program. Meta-regression showed that diabetes, smoking, variceal bleeding, and hepatic decompensation were associated with a higher risk of HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis determined that the 5- and 10- year cumulative risk of HCC in alcohol-associated cirrhosis was 3% and 9%, respectively, with a higher incidence in cohorts that were enrolled in a HCC surveillance program. These data should be validated further in large prospective studies, and may have important implications for HCC screening and surveillance among patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis.