Improving the Cost-efficiency of Preventive Chemotherapy: Impact of New Diagnostics on Stopping Decisions for Control of Schistosomiasis.

BACKGROUND: Control of schistosomiasis (SCH) relies on the regular distribution of preventive chemotherapy (PC) over many years. For the sake of sustainable SCH control, a decision must be made at some stage to scale down or stop PC. These "stopping decisions" are based on population surveys that assess whether infection levels are sufficiently low. However, the limited sensitivity of the currently used diagnostic (Kato-Katz [KK]) to detect low-intensity infections is a concern. Therefore, the use of new, more sensitive, molecular diagnostics has been proposed. METHODS: Through statistical analysis of Schistosoma mansoni egg counts collected from Burundi and a simulation study using an established transmission model for schistosomiasis, we investigated the extent to which more sensitive diagnostics can improve decision making regarding stopping or continuing PC for the control of S. mansoni. RESULTS: We found that KK-based strategies perform reasonably well for determining when to stop PC at a local scale. Use of more sensitive diagnostics leads to a marginally improved health impact (person-years lived with heavy infection) and comes at a cost of continuing PC for longer (up to around 3 years), unless the decision threshold for stopping PC is adapted upward. However, if this threshold is set too high, PC may be stopped prematurely, resulting in a rebound of infection levels and disease burden (+45% person-years of heavy infection). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the potential value of more sensitive diagnostics lies more in the reduction of survey-related costs than in the direct health impact of improved parasite control.

Determining the optimal strategies to achieve elimination of transmission for Schistosoma mansoni.

BACKGROUND: In January 2021, the World Health Organization published the 2021-2030 roadmap for the control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). The goal for schistosomiasis is to achieve elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) and elimination of transmission (EOT) in 78 and 25 countries (by 2030), respectively. Mass drug administration (MDA) of praziquantel continues to be the main strategy for control and elimination. However, as there is limited availability of praziquantel, it is important to determine what volume of treatments are required, who should be targeted and how frequently treatment must be administered to eliminate either transmission or morbidity caused by infection in different endemic settings with varied transmission intensities. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this paper, we employ two individual-based stochastic models of schistosomiasis transmission developed independently by the Imperial College London (ICL) and University of Oxford (SCHISTOX) to determine the optimal treatment strategies to achieve EOT. We find that treating school-age children (SAC) only is not sufficient to achieve EOT within a feasible time frame, regardless of the transmission setting and observed age-intensity of infection profile. Both models show that community-wide treatment is necessary to interrupt transmission in all endemic settings with low, medium and high pristine transmission intensities. CONCLUSIONS: The required MDA coverage level to achieve either transmission or morbidity elimination depends on the prevalence prior to the start of treatment and the burden of infection in adults. The higher the worm burden in adults, the higher the coverage levels required for this age category through community-wide treatment programmes. Therefore, it is important that intensity and prevalence data are collected in each age category, particularly from SAC and adults, so that the correct coverage level can be calculated and administered.

Genome-wide insights into adaptive hybridisation across the Schistosoma haematobium group in West and Central Africa.

Schistosomiasis remains a public health concern across sub-Saharan Africa; current control programmes rely on accurate mapping and high mass drug administration (MDA) coverage to attempt disease elimination. Inter-species hybridisation can occur between certain species, changing epidemiological dynamics within endemic regions, which has the potential to confound control interventions. The impact of hybridisation on disease dynamics is well illustrated in areas of Cameroon where urogenital schistosomiasis, primarily due to Schistosoma haematobium and hybrid infections, now predominate over intestinal schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma guineensis. Genetic markers have shown the ability to identify hybrids, however the underlying genomic architecture of divergence and introgression between these species has yet to be established. In this study, restriction site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) was used on archived adult worms initially identified as; Schistosoma bovis (n = 4), S. haematobium (n = 9), S. guineensis (n = 3) and S. guineensis x S. haematobium hybrids (n = 4) from Mali, Senegal, Niger, São Tomé and Cameroon. Genome-wide evidence supports the existence of S. guineensis and S. haematobium hybrid populations across Cameroon. The hybridisation of S. guineensis x S. haematobium has not been demonstrated on the island of São Tomé, where all samples showed no introgression with S. haematobium. Additionally, all S. haematobium isolates from Nigeria, Mali and Cameroon indicated signatures of genomic introgression from S. bovis. Adaptive loci across the S. haematobium group showed that voltage-gated calcium ion channels (Cav) could play a key role in the ability to increase the survivability of species, particularly in host systems. Where admixture has occurred between S. guineensis and S. haematobium, the excess introgressive influx of tegumental (outer helminth body) and antigenic genes from S. haematobium has increased the adaptive response in hybrids, leading to increased hybrid population fitness and viability.

The impact of mass drug administration on Schistosoma haematobium infection: what is required to achieve morbidity control and elimination?

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis remains an endemic parasitic disease causing much morbidity and, in some cases, mortality. The World Health Organization (WHO) has outlined strategies and goals to combat the burden of disease caused by schistosomiasis. The first goal is morbidity control, which is defined by achieving less than 5% prevalence of heavy intensity infection in school-aged children (SAC). The second goal is elimination as a public health problem (EPHP), achieved when the prevalence of heavy intensity infection in SAC is reduced to less than 1%. Mass drug administration (MDA) of praziquantel is the main strategy for control. However, there is limited availability of praziquantel, particularly in Africa where there is high prevalence of infection. It is therefore important to explore whether the WHO goals can be achieved using the current guidelines for treatment based on targeting SAC and, in some cases, adults. Previous modelling work has largely focused on Schistosoma mansoni, which in advance cases can cause liver and spleen enlargement. There has been much less modelling of the transmission of Schistosoma haematobium, which in severe cases can cause kidney damage and bladder cancer. This lack of modelling has largely been driven by limited data availability and challenges in interpreting these data. RESULTS: In this paper, using an individual-based stochastic model and age-intensity profiles of S. haematobium from two different communities, we calculate the probability of achieving the morbidity and EPHP goals within 15 years of treatment under the current WHO treatment guidelines. We find that targeting SAC only can achieve the morbidity goal for all transmission settings, regardless of the burden of infection in adults. The EPHP goal can be achieved in low transmission settings, but in some moderate to high settings community-wide treatment is needed. CONCLUSIONS: We show that the key determinants of achieving the WHO goals are the precise form of the age-intensity of infection profile and the baseline SAC prevalence. Additionally, we find that the higher the burden of infection in adults, the higher the chances that adults need to be included in the treatment programme to achieve EPHP.

Sampling strategies for monitoring and evaluation of morbidity targets for soil-transmitted helminths.

BACKGROUND: The current World Health Organization (WHO) target for the three major soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections is to reduce prevalence of moderate-to-heavy infections to below 1% by 2020. In terms of monitoring and evaluation (M&E), the current WHO guidelines for control of STHs recommend evaluation of infection levels in school-age children (SAC) after five to six years of preventive chemotherapy (PC), using the standard Kato-Katz faecal smear. Here, we assess the predictive performance of various sampling designs for the evaluation of the morbidity target. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using two mathematical models for STH transmission and control, we simulate how the number of villages and SAC sampled affect the ability of survey results in sentinel villages to predict the achievement of the morbidity target in PC implementation units (e.g. districts). As PC is stopped when the prevalence of infection in SAC in sentinel villages is less than 1%, we estimate the positive predictive value (PPV) of this indicator for meeting the morbidity target in the whole district. The PPV varies by species and PC strategy, and it is generally higher in areas with lower pre-control prevalence. Sampling a fixed number of SAC spread out over 10 instead of 5 sentinel villages may increase the PPV by up to 20 percentage points. If every SAC in a village is tested, a higher number of villages may increase the PPV by up to 80 percentage points. Increasing the proportion of SAC tested per village does not result in a relevant increase of PPV. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although the WHO guidelines provide a combined strategy to control the three STH species, the efficacy of PC strategies clearly differs by species. There is added value in considering more villages within implementation units for M&E of morbidity targets, the extent varying by STH species. A better understanding of pre- and post-control local STH prevalence levels is essential for an adequate M&E strategy including the definition of morbidity targets at the appropriate geographical scale.

Seasonally timed treatment programs for Ascaris lumbricoides to increase impact-An investigation using mathematical models.

There is clear empirical evidence that environmental conditions can influence Ascaris spp. free-living stage development and host reinfection, but the impact of these differences on human infections, and interventions to control them, is variable. A new model framework reflecting four key stages of the A. lumbricoides life cycle, incorporating the effects of rainfall and temperature, is used to describe the level of infection in the human population alongside the environmental egg dynamics. Using data from South Korea and Nigeria, we conclude that settings with extreme fluctuations in rainfall or temperature could exhibit strong seasonal transmission patterns that may be partially masked by the longevity of A. lumbricoides infections in hosts; we go on to demonstrate how seasonally timed mass drug administration (MDA) could impact the outcomes of control strategies. For the South Korean setting the results predict a comparative decrease of 74.5% in mean worm days (the number of days the average individual spend infected with worms across a 12 month period) between the best and worst MDA timings after four years of annual treatment. The model found no significant seasonal effect on MDA in the Nigerian setting due to a narrower annual temperature range and no rainfall dependence. Our results suggest that seasonal variation in egg survival and maturation could be exploited to maximise the impact of MDA in certain settings.

Compliance with anthelmintic treatment in the neglected tropical diseases control programmes: a systematic review.

Preventive chemotherapy (PCT) programmes are used to control five of the highest burden neglected tropical diseases (NTDs): soil-transmitted helminth infections (hookworm, ascariasis, and trichuriasis), lymphatic filariasis, schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and trachoma. Over the past decade, new resource commitments for the NTDs have enabled such programmes to intensify their control efforts, and for some diseases, to shift from goals of morbidity control to the interruption of transmission and elimination. To successfully eliminate the parasite reservoir, these programmes will undoubtedly require prolonged, high treatment coverage. However, it is important to consider that even when coverage levels reach an acceptable proportion of the target population, there may be a considerable gap between coverage (those who receive the drug) and compliance (those who actually consume the drug)-a topic of fundamental and perhaps underestimated importance. We conducted a systematic review of published literature that investigated compliance to PCT programmes for NTD control and elimination. Databases searched included PubMed/Medline, Web of Knowledge (including Web of Science), OVID, and Scopus. Data were collected on compliance rates, reasons for non-compliance, as well as the heterogeneity of compliance definitions and calculations across programmes and studies. A total of 112 studies were selected for inclusion. The findings of the review revealed substantial heterogeneity across compliance terms and definitions; an imbalance of available studies for particular disease areas and countries; and finally, a lack of longitudinal compliance studies to properly investigate the role of systematic non-compliance. The lack of consistency among reporting of compliance data can result in under- or over-estimating compliance in a population, and therefore has serious implications for setting and reaching elimination targets. Reframing of the guidelines on compliance definitions coupled with an urgent call for longitudinal research in systematic non-compliance should be essential elements in the programmatic shift from control to elimination.

Comparison of the risks of atherosclerotic events versus death from other causes associated with antiretroviral use.

BACKGROUND: Studies considering the risk of atherosclerotic disease (AtD) associated with the use of HAART have reported inconsistent results. METHODS: Data on antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), AtD and death from other causes in 18 603 HIV-infected patients from two established cohorts were evaluated. The relative hazards of AtD and death from other causes were calculated using a proportional hazards competing risks framework. The impact of protease inhibitor (PI)-containing, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-containing or PI + NNRTI-containing regimens on these outcomes were compared to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI)-only regimens or stopping therapy, adjusting for known CVD risk factors. RESULTS: In 77 480 person-years of follow-up (median duration 3.49 years) there were 318 AtD events including 92 myocardial infarctions and 2044 deaths. Older age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, having smoked and HIV disease stage were significantly associated with increased risk of AtD. PI- and NNRTI-containing regimens significantly reduced the joint risk of either AtD or death from other causes compared to NRTI-only or stopping therapy [hazard ratio (HR) for PI-containing ART, 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.73-0.78, P< 0.001; NNRTI-containing ART, 0.69, 95% CI, 0.65-0.74; P< 0.001). PI-containing ART was associated with a borderline significant increased risk of myocardial infarction (cause-specific HR for PI-containing ART 1.19, 95% CI, 1.01-1.40, P = 0.04) but not with increased risk of AtD compared to NRTI-only regimens or stopping therapy (cause-specific HR for PI-containing ART, 1.03, 95% CI, 0.95-1.13, P = 0.44). CONCLUSIONS: Overall benefits of PI- and NNRTI-based ART in reducing mortality significantly outweigh any risks of AtD in the "short-term" follow-up of this study. Traditional cardiac risk factors play an important role in determining AtD risk status.

Determining control parameters for dendritic cell-cytotoxic T lymphocyte interaction.

Dendritic cells (DC) are potent immunostimulatory cells facilitating antigen transport to lymphoid tissues and providing efficient stimulation of T cells. A series of experimental studies in mice demonstrated that cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) can be efficiently induced by adoptive transfer of antigen-presenting DC. However, the success of DC-based immunotherapeutic treatment of human cancer, for example, is still limited because the details of the regulation and kinetics of the DC-CTL interaction are not yet completely understood. Using a combination of experimental mouse studies, mathematical modeling, and nonlinear parameter estimation, we analyzed the population dynamics of DC-induced CTL responses. The model integrates a predator-prey-type interaction of DC and CTL with the non-linear compartmental dynamics of T cells. We found that T cell receptor avidity, the half-life of DC, and the rate of CTL-mediated DC-elimination are the major control parameters for optimal DC-induced CTL responses. For induction of high avidity CTL, the number of adoptively transferred DC was of minor importance once a minimal threshold of approximately 200 cells per spleen had been reached. Taken together, our study indicates that the availability of high avidity T cells in the recipient in combination with the optimal application regimen is of prime importance for successful DC-based immunotherapy.