A pancreatic cancer risk prediction model (Prism) developed and validated on large-scale US clinical data.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic Duct Adenocarcinoma (PDAC) screening can enable early-stage disease detection and long-term survival. Current guidelines use inherited predisposition, with about 10% of PDAC cases eligible for screening. Using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data from a multi-institutional federated network, we developed and validated a PDAC RISk Model (Prism) for the general US population to extend early PDAC detection. METHODS: Neural Network (PrismNN) and Logistic Regression (PrismLR) were developed using EHR data from 55 US Health Care Organisations (HCOs) to predict PDAC risk 6-18 months before diagnosis for patients 40 years or older. Model performance was assessed using Area Under the Curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Models were internal-externally validated by geographic location, race, and time. Simulated model deployment evaluated Standardised Incidence Ratio (SIR) and other metrics. FINDINGS: With 35,387 PDAC cases, 1,500,081 controls, and 87 features per patient, PrismNN obtained a test AUC of 0.826 (95% CI: 0.824-0.828) (PrismLR: 0.800 (95% CI: 0.798-0.802)). PrismNN's average internal-external validation AUCs were 0.740 for locations, 0.828 for races, and 0.789 (95% CI: 0.762-0.816) for time. At SIR = 5.10 (exceeding the current screening inclusion threshold) in simulated model deployment, PrismNN sensitivity was 35.9% (specificity 95.3%). INTERPRETATION: Prism models demonstrated good accuracy and generalizability across diverse populations. PrismNN could find 3.5 times more cases at comparable risk than current screening guidelines. The small number of features provided a basis for model interpretation. Integration with the federated network provided data from a large, heterogeneous patient population and a pathway to future clinical deployment. FUNDING: Prevent Cancer Foundation, TriNetX, Boeing, DARPA, NSF, and Aarno Labs.

Development and validation of a pancreatic cancer risk model for the general population using electronic health records: An observational study.

AIM: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is often diagnosed at a late, incurable stage. We sought to determine whether individuals at high risk of developing PDAC could be identified early using routinely collected data. METHODS: Electronic health record (EHR) databases from two independent hospitals in Boston, Massachusetts, providing inpatient, outpatient, and emergency care, from 1979 through 2017, were used with case-control matching. PDAC cases were selected using International Classification of Diseases 9/10 codes and validated with tumour registries. A data-driven feature selection approach was used to develop neural networks and L2-regularised logistic regression (LR) models on training data (594 cases, 100,787 controls) and compared with a published model based on hand-selected diagnoses ('baseline'). Model performance was validated on an external database (408 cases, 160,185 controls). Three prediction lead times (180, 270 and 365 days) were considered. RESULTS: The LR model had the best performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.71 (confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.76) for the training set, and AUC 0.68 (CI: 0.65-0.71) for the validation set, 365 days before diagnosis. Data-driven feature selection improved results over 'baseline' (AUC = 0.55; CI: 0.52-0.58). The LR model flags 2692 (CI 2592-2791) of 156,485 as high risk, 365 days in advance, identifying 25 (CI: 16-36) cancer patients. Risk stratification showed that the high-risk group presented a cancer rate 3 to 5 times the prevalence in our data set. CONCLUSION: A simple EHR model, based on diagnoses, can identify high-risk individuals for PDAC up to one year in advance. This inexpensive, systematic approach may serve as the first sieve for selection of individuals for PDAC screening programs.

Long-term Outcomes of Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy for Low-Risk and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer.

Importance: Stereotactic body radiotherapy harnesses improvements in technology to allow the completion of a course of external beam radiotherapy treatment for prostate cancer in the span of 4 to 5 treatment sessions. Although mounting short-term data support this approach, long-term outcomes have been sparsely reported. Objective: To assess long-term outcomes after stereotactic body radiotherapy for low-risk and intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study analyzed individual patient data from 2142 men enrolled in 10 single-institution phase 2 trials and 2 multi-institutional phase 2 trials of stereotactic body radiotherapy for low-risk and intermediate-risk prostate cancer between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2012. Statistical analysis was performed based on follow-up from January 1, 2013, to May 1, 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: The cumulative incidence of biochemical recurrence was estimated using a competing risk framework. Physician-scored genitourinary and gastrointestinal toxic event outcomes were defined per each individual study, generally by Radiation Therapy Oncology Group or Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events scoring systems. After central review, cumulative incidences of late grade 3 or higher toxic events were estimated using a Kaplan-Meier method. Results: A total of 2142 men (mean [SD] age, 67.9 [9.5] years) were eligible for analysis, of whom 1185 (55.3%) had low-risk disease, 692 (32.3%) had favorable intermediate-risk disease, and 265 (12.4%) had unfavorable intermediate-risk disease. The median follow-up period was 6.9 years (interquartile range, 4.9-8.1 years). Seven-year cumulative rates of biochemical recurrence were 4.5% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.8%) for low-risk disease, 8.6% (95% CI, 6.2%-11.0%) for favorable intermediate-risk disease, 14.9% (95% CI, 9.5%-20.2%) for unfavorable intermediate-risk disease, and 10.2% (95% CI, 8.0%-12.5%) for all intermediate-risk disease. The crude incidence of acute grade 3 or higher genitourinary toxic events was 0.60% (n = 13) and of gastrointestinal toxic events was 0.09% (n = 2), and the 7-year cumulative incidence of late grade 3 or higher genitourinary toxic events was 2.4% (95% CI, 1.8%-3.2%) and of late grade 3 or higher gastrointestinal toxic events was 0.4% (95% CI, 0.2%-0.8%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, stereotactic body radiotherapy for low-risk and intermediate-risk disease was associated with low rates of severe toxic events and high rates of biochemical control. These data suggest that stereotactic body radiotherapy is an appropriate definitive treatment modality for low-risk and intermediate-risk prostate cancer.

Novel high dose rate lip brachytherapy technique to improve dose homogeneity and reduce toxicity by customized mold.

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to describe a novel brachytherapy technique for lip Squamous Cell Carcinoma, utilizing a customized mold with embedded brachytherapy sleeves, which separates the lip from the mandible, and improves dose homogeneity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Seven patients with T2 lip cancer treated with a "sandwich" technique of High Dose Rate (HDR) brachytherapy to the lip, consisting of interstitial catheters and a customized mold with embedded catheters, were reviewed for dosimetry and outcome using 3D planning. Dosimetric comparison was made between the "sandwich" technique to "classic" - interstitial catheters only plan. We compared dose volume histograms for Clinical Tumor Volume (CTV), normal tissue "hot spots" and mandible dose. We are reporting according to the ICRU 58 and calculated the Conformal Index (COIN) to show the advantage of our technique. RESULTS: The seven patients (ages 36-81 years, male) had median follow-up of 47 months. Four patients received Brachytherapy and External Beam Radiation Therapy, 3 patients received brachytherapy alone. All achieved local control, with excellent esthetic and functional results. All patients are disease free. The Customized Mold Sandwich technique (CMS) reduced the high dose region receiving 150% (V150) by an average of 20% (range 1-47%), The low dose region (les then 90% of the prescribed dose) improved by 73% in average by using the CMS technique. The COIN value for the CMS was in average 0.92 as opposed to 0.88 for the interstitial catheter only. All differences (excluding the low dose region) were statistically significant. CONCLUSION: The CMS technique significantly reduces the high dose volume and increases treatment homogeneity. This may reduce the potential toxicity to the lip and adjacent mandible, and results in excellent tumor control, cosmetic and functionality.

Macrophage polarization in pancreatic carcinoma: role of heparanase enzyme.

BACKGROUND: Tumor microenvironment, and particularly tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs), represent a key contributing factor in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) pathogenesis. Here we report that heparanase (predominant enzyme degrading heparan sulfate, the main polysaccharide found at the cell surface and extracellular matrix) directs tumor-promoting behavior of TAM in PDAC. METHODS: A mouse model of heparanase-overexpressing pancreatic carcinoma (n = 5 mice/group), tumor-associated macrophages ex vivo, primary wild-type and heparanase-null macrophages, and histological specimens from PDAC patients (n = 16), were analyzed, applying immunostaining, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, cell proliferation, and heparanase activity assays. All statistical tests are two-sided. RESULTS: We found that overexpression of heparanase is associated with increased TAM infiltration in both experimental (P = .002) and human (P = .01) PDAC. Moreover, macrophages derived from heparanase-rich tumors (which grew faster in mouse hosts), display pronounced procancerous phenotype, evidenced by overexpression of MSR-2, IL-10, CCL2, VEGF, and increased production of IL-6, an important player in PDAC pathogenesis. Furthermore, in vitro heparanase enzyme-rendered macrophages (stimulated by necrotic cells which are often present in PDAC tissue) procancerous, as exemplified by their enhanced production of key cytokines implicated in PDAC (including IL-6), as well as by their ability to induce STAT3 signaling and to augment pancreatic carcinoma cell proliferation. In agreement, we observed activation of STAT3 in experimental and clinical specimens of heparanase-overexpressing PDAC. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore a novel function of heparanase in molecular decision-making that guides cancer-promoting action of TAM and imply that heparanase expression status may become highly relevant in defining a target patient subgroup that is likely to benefit the most from treatment modalities targeting TAM/IL-6/STAT3.

[HER2 as a marker for guiding the choice of chemotherapy in breast cancer patients].

Patients diagnosed with local or locally advanced breast cancer are treated by a combination of surgery, radiation therapy and drug therapy (chemotherapy, biological and hormonal therapy). Recently, efforts have been made to customize drug treatment according to subgroups that will derive maximum benefit from a specific treatment. This goal is accomplished by the assessment of standard variables, among them specific receptors of the tumor and customization of treatment accordingly. For example, treatment with Herceptin is known to be beneficial only in patients with HER2 positive tumors. It has recently been suggested that this group also derives greater benefit from treatment with anthracyclines.