Estimated Substitution of Tea or Coffee for Sugar-Sweetened Beverages Was Associated with Lower Type 2 Diabetes Incidence in Case-Cohort Analysis across 8 European Countries in the EPIC-InterAct Study.

INTRODUCTION: Beverage consumption is a modifiable risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), but there is insufficient evidence to inform the suitability of substituting 1 type of beverage for another. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of T2D when consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) was replaced with consumption of fruit juice, milk, coffee, or tea. METHODS: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study of 8 European countries (n = 27,662, with 12,333 cases of incident T2D, 1992-2007), beverage consumption was estimated at baseline by dietary questionnaires. Using Prentice-weighted Cox regression adjusting for other beverages and potential confounders, we estimated associations of substituting 1 type of beverage for another on incident T2D. RESULTS: Mean ± SD of estimated consumption of SSB was 55 ± 105 g/d. Means ± SDs for the other beverages were as follows: fruit juice, 59 ± 101 g/d; milk, 209 ± 203 g/d; coffee, 381 ± 372 g/d; and tea, 152 ± 282 g/d. Substituting coffee for SSBs by 250 g/d was associated with a 21% lower incidence of T2D (95% CI: 12%, 29%). The rate difference was -12.0 (95% CI: -20.0, -5.0) per 10,000 person-years among adults consuming SSBs ≥250 g/d (absolute rate = 48.3/10,000). Substituting tea for SSBs was estimated to lower T2D incidence by 22% (95% CI: 15%, 28%) or -11.0 (95% CI: -20.0, -2.6) per 10,000 person-years, whereas substituting fruit juice or milk was estimated not to alter T2D risk significantly. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate a potential benefit of substituting coffee or tea for SSBs for the primary prevention of T2D and may help formulate public health recommendations on beverage consumption in different populations.

Consumption of Meat, Fish, Dairy Products, and Eggs and Risk of Ischemic Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the relevance of animal foods to the pathogenesis of ischemic heart disease (IHD). We examined meat, fish, dairy products, and eggs and risk for IHD in the pan-European EPIC cohort (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition). METHODS: In this prospective study of 409 885 men and women in 9 European countries, diet was assessed with validated questionnaires and calibrated with 24-hour recalls. Lipids and blood pressure were measured in a subsample. During a mean of 12.6 years of follow-up, 7198 participants had a myocardial infarction or died of IHD. The relationships of animal foods with risk were examined with Cox regression with adjustment for other animal foods and relevant covariates. RESULTS: The hazard ratio (HR) for IHD was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.06-1.33) for a 100-g/d increment in intake of red and processed meat, and this remained significant after exclusion of the first 4 years of follow-up (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.09-1.42]). Risk was inversely associated with intakes of yogurt (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.89-0.98] per 100-g/d increment), cheese (HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.86-0.98] per 30-g/d increment), and eggs (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99] per 20-g/d increment); the associations with yogurt and eggs were attenuated and nonsignificant after exclusion of the first 4 years of follow-up. Risk was not significantly associated with intakes of poultry, fish, or milk. In analyses modeling dietary substitutions, replacement of 100 kcal/d from red and processed meat with 100 kcal/d from fatty fish, yogurt, cheese, or eggs was associated with ≈20% lower risk of IHD. Consumption of red and processed meat was positively associated with serum non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration and systolic blood pressure, and consumption of cheese was inversely associated with serum non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: Risk for IHD was positively associated with consumption of red and processed meat and inversely associated with consumption of yogurt, cheese, and eggs, although the associations with yogurt and eggs may be influenced by reverse causation bias. It is not clear whether the associations with red and processed meat and cheese reflect causality, but they were consistent with the associations of these foods with plasma non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and for red and processed meat with systolic blood pressure, which could mediate such effects.

Exploring causality of the association between smoking and Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this paper is to investigate the causality of the inverse association between cigarette smoking and Parkinson's disease (PD). The main suggested alternatives include a delaying effect of smoking, reverse causality or an unmeasured confounding related to a low-risk-taking personality trait. METHODS: A total of 715 incident PD cases were ascertained in a cohort of 220 494 individuals from NeuroEPIC4PD, a prospective European population-based cohort study including 13 centres in eight countries. Smoking habits were recorded at recruitment. We analysed smoking status, duration, and intensity and exposure to passive smoking in relation to PD onset. RESULTS: Former smokers had a 20% decreased risk and current smokers a halved risk of developing PD compared with never smokers. Strong dose-response relationships with smoking intensity and duration were found. Hazard ratios (HRs) for smoking <20 years were 0.84 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-1.07], 20-29 years 0.73 (95% CI 0.56-0.96) and >30 years 0.54 (95% CI 0.43-0.36) compared with never smokers. The proportional hazard assumption was verified, showing no change of risk over time, arguing against a delaying effect. Reverse causality was disproved by the consistency of dose-response relationships among former and current smokers. The inverse association between passive smoking and PD, HR 0.70 (95% CI 0.49-0.99) ruled out the effect of unmeasured confounding. CONCLUSIONS: These results are highly suggestive of a true causal link between smoking and PD, although it is not clear which is the chemical compound in cigarette smoking responsible for the biological effect.

Alcohol intake in relation to non-fatal and fatal coronary heart disease and stroke: EPIC-CVD case-cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between alcohol consumption (at baseline and over lifetime) and non-fatal and fatal coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. DESIGN: Multicentre case-cohort study. SETTING: A study of cardiovascular disease (CVD) determinants within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition cohort (EPIC-CVD) from eight European countries. PARTICIPANTS: 32 549 participants without baseline CVD, comprised of incident CVD cases and a subcohort for comparison. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Non-fatal and fatal CHD and stroke (including ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke). RESULTS: There were 9307 non-fatal CHD events, 1699 fatal CHD, 5855 non-fatal stroke, and 733 fatal stroke. Baseline alcohol intake was inversely associated with non-fatal CHD, with a hazard ratio of 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 0.96) per 12 g/day higher intake. There was a J shaped association between baseline alcohol intake and risk of fatal CHD. The hazard ratios were 0.83 (0.70 to 0.98), 0.65 (0.53 to 0.81), and 0.82 (0.65 to 1.03) for categories 5.0-14.9 g/day, 15.0-29.9 g/day, and 30.0-59.9 g/day of total alcohol intake, respectively, compared with 0.1-4.9 g/day. In contrast, hazard ratios for non-fatal and fatal stroke risk were 1.04 (1.02 to 1.07), and 1.05 (0.98 to 1.13) per 12 g/day increase in baseline alcohol intake, respectively, including broadly similar findings for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. Associations with cardiovascular outcomes were broadly similar with average lifetime alcohol consumption as for baseline alcohol intake, and across the eight countries studied. There was no strong evidence for interactions of alcohol consumption with smoking status on the risk of CVD events. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol intake was inversely associated with non-fatal CHD risk but positively associated with the risk of different stroke subtypes. This highlights the opposing associations of alcohol intake with different CVD types and strengthens the evidence for policies to reduce alcohol consumption.

Trends in congenital anomalies in Europe from 1980 to 2012.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of congenital anomalies is important to identify potential teratogens. METHODS: This study analysed the prevalence of 61 congenital anomaly subgroups (excluding chromosomal) in 25 population-based EUROCAT registries (1980-2012). Live births, fetal deaths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random-effects Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003-2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. CONCLUSIONS: The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects, single ventricle, atrioventricular septal defects and tetralogy of Fallot of 1.4% (95% CI: 0.7% to 2.0%), 4.6% (1.0% to 8.2%), 3.4% (1.3% to 5.5%) and 4.1% (2.4% to 5.7%) respectively may reflect increases in maternal obesity and diabetes (known risk factors). The increased prevalence of cystic adenomatous malformation of the lung [6.5% (3.5% to 9.4%)] and decreased prevalence of limb reduction defects [-2.8% (-4.2% to -1.5%)] are unexplained. For renal dysplasia and maternal infections, increasing trends may be explained by increased screening, and deceases in patent ductus arteriosus at term and increases in craniosynostosis, by improved follow up period after birth and improved diagnosis. For oesophageal atresia, duodenal atresia/stenosis and ano-rectal atresia/stenosis recent changes in prevalence appeared incidental when compared with larger long term fluctuations. For microcephaly and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid supplementation.

Separate and combined associations of obesity and metabolic health with coronary heart disease: a pan-European case-cohort analysis.

Aims: The hypothesis of 'metabolically healthy obesity' implies that, in the absence of metabolic dysfunction, individuals with excess adiposity are not at greater cardiovascular risk. We tested this hypothesis in a large pan-European prospective study. Methods and results: We conducted a case-cohort analysis in the 520 000-person European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study ('EPIC-CVD'). During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, we recorded 7637 incident coronary heart disease (CHD) cases. Using cut-offs recommended by guidelines, we defined obesity and overweight using body mass index (BMI), and metabolic dysfunction ('unhealthy') as ≥ 3 of elevated blood pressure, hypertriglyceridaemia, low HDL-cholesterol, hyperglycaemia, and elevated waist circumference. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) within each country using Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regressions, accounting for age, sex, centre, education, smoking, diet, and physical activity. Compared with metabolically healthy normal weight people (reference), HRs were 2.15 (95% CI: 1.79; 2.57) for unhealthy normal weight, 2.33 (1.97; 2.76) for unhealthy overweight, and 2.54 (2.21; 2.92) for unhealthy obese people. Compared with the reference group, HRs were 1.26 (1.14; 1.40) and 1.28 (1.03; 1.58) for metabolically healthy overweight and obese people, respectively. These results were robust to various sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Irrespective of BMI, metabolically unhealthy individuals had higher CHD risk than their healthy counterparts. Conversely, irrespective of metabolic health, overweight and obese people had higher CHD risk than lean people. These findings challenge the concept of 'metabolically healthy obesity', encouraging population-wide strategies to tackle obesity.

Interaction of Dietary and Genetic Factors Influencing Body Iron Status and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Within the EPIC-InterAct Study.

OBJECTIVE: Meat intake has been consistently shown to be positively associated with incident type 2 diabetes. Part of that association may be mediated by body iron status, which is influenced by genetic factors. We aimed to test for interactions of genetic and dietary factors influencing body iron status in relation to the risk of incident type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The case-cohort comprised 9,347 case subjects and 12,301 subcohort participants from eight European countries. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected from genome-wide association studies on iron status biomarkers and candidate gene studies. A ferritin-related gene score was constructed. Multiplicative and additive interactions of heme iron and SNPs as well as the gene score were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Higher heme iron intake (per 1 SD) was associated with higher ferritin levels (ß = 0.113 [95% CI 0.082; 0.144]), but not with transferrin (-0.019 [-0.043; 0.006]) or transferrin saturation (0.016 [-0.006; 0.037]). Five SNPs located in four genes (rs1799945 [HFE H63D], rs1800562 [HFE C282Y], rs236918 [PCK7], rs744653 [SLC40A1], and rs855791 [TMPRSS6 V736A]) were associated with ferritin. We did not detect an interaction of heme iron and the gene score on the risk of diabetes in the overall study population (Padd = 0.16, Pmult = 0.21) but did detect a trend toward a negative interaction in men (Padd = 0.04, Pmult = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: We found no convincing evidence that the interplay of dietary and genetic factors related to body iron status associates with type 2 diabetes risk above the level expected from the sum or product of the two individual exposures.

Blood Metabolic Signatures of Body Mass Index: A Targeted Metabolomics Study in the EPIC Cohort.

Metabolomics is now widely used to characterize metabolic phenotypes associated with lifestyle risk factors such as obesity. The objective of the present study was to explore the associations of body mass index (BMI) with 145 metabolites measured in blood samples in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Metabolites were measured in blood from 392 men from the Oxford (UK) cohort (EPIC-Oxford) and in 327 control subjects who were part of a nested case-control study on hepatobiliary carcinomas (EPIC-Hepatobiliary). Measured metabolites included amino acids, acylcarnitines, hexoses, biogenic amines, phosphatidylcholines, and sphingomyelins. Linear regression models controlled for potential confounders and multiple testing were run to evaluate the associations of metabolite concentrations with BMI. 40 and 45 individual metabolites showed significant differences according to BMI variations, in the EPIC-Oxford and EPIC-Hepatobiliary subcohorts, respectively. Twenty two individual metabolites (kynurenine, one sphingomyelin, glutamate and 19 phosphatidylcholines) were associated with BMI in both subcohorts. The present findings provide additional knowledge on blood metabolic signatures of BMI in European adults, which may help identify mechanisms mediating the relationship of BMI with obesity-related diseases.

Interaction between genes and macronutrient intake on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes: systematic review and findings from European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-InterAct.

Background: Gene-diet interactions have been reported to contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, to our knowledge, few examples have been consistently replicated to date.Objective: We aimed to identify existing evidence for gene-macronutrient interactions and T2D and to examine the reported interactions in a large-scale study.Design: We systematically reviewed studies reporting gene-macronutrient interactions and T2D. We searched the MEDLINE, Human Genome Epidemiology Network, and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform electronic databases to identify studies published up to October 2015. Eligibility criteria included assessment of macronutrient quantity (e.g., total carbohydrate) or indicators of quality (e.g., dietary fiber) by use of self-report or objective biomarkers of intake. Interactions identified in the review were subsequently examined in the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)-InterAct case-cohort study (n = 21,148, with 9403 T2D cases; 8 European countries). Prentice-weighted Cox regression was used to estimate country-specific HRs, 95% CIs, and P-interaction values, which were then pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. A primary model was fitted by using the same covariates as reported in the published studies, and a second model adjusted for additional covariates and estimated the effects of isocaloric macronutrient substitution.Results: Thirteen observational studies met the eligibility criteria (n < 1700 cases). Eight unique interactions were reported to be significant between macronutrients [carbohydrate, fat, saturated fat, dietary fiber, and glycemic load derived from self-report of dietary intake and circulating n-3 (ω-3) polyunsaturated fatty acids] and genetic variants in or near transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2), gastric inhibitory polypeptide receptor (GIPR), caveolin 2 (CAV2), and peptidase D (PEPD) (P-interaction < 0.05). We found no evidence of interaction when we tried to replicate previously reported interactions. In addition, no interactions were detected in models with additional covariates.Conclusions: Eight gene-macronutrient interactions were identified for the risk of T2D from the literature. These interactions were not replicated in the EPIC-InterAct study, which mirrored the analyses undertaken in the original reports. Our findings highlight the importance of independent replication of reported interactions.

Inflammatory potential of the diet and mortality in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain).

SCOPE: Low-grade chronic inflammation is associated with several chronic conditions, and diet is known to play a role in chronic inflammation. We aimed to evaluate the association between the inflammatory potential of the diet and mortality in the Spanish population from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 41 199 participants (62% female) aged 29-69 years from five Spanish regions. During 18 years of follow-up 3316 deaths were identified. The dietary inflammatory potential was assessed by means of an inflammatory score of the diet (ISD), calculated using 30 dietetic components and their corresponding inflammatory scores (weights). The association between the ISD and mortality was analyzed by multivariate Cox regression models. There was a significant association between ISD and mortality: subjects classified in the fifth quintile of the ISD (more proinflammatory diets) had a hazard ratio of 1.42 (95%-confidence interval 1.25-1.60) as compared with those in the first quintile; the corresponding figures were 1.89 (1.48-2.40) for cardiovascular diseases mortality and 1.44 (1.22-1.69) for death by cancer. CONCLUSION: Consuming more proinflammatory diets, expressed by means of the ISD, is associated with higher mortality; this effect seems to be stronger for deaths by cardiovascular diseases.

Parity, breastfeeding and risk of coronary heart disease: A pan-European case-cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: There is uncertainty about the direction and magnitude of the associations between parity, breastfeeding and the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined the separate and combined associations of parity and breastfeeding practices with the incidence of CHD later in life among women in a large, pan-European cohort study. METHODS: Data were used from European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD, a case-cohort study nested within the EPIC prospective study of 520,000 participants from 10 countries. Information on reproductive history was available for 14,917 women, including 5138 incident cases of CHD. Using Prentice-weighted Cox regression separately for each country followed by a random-effects meta-analysis, we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CHD, after adjustment for age, study centre and several socioeconomic and biological risk factors. RESULTS: Compared with nulliparous women, the adjusted HR was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.01-1.41) among parous women; HRs were higher among women with more children (e.g., adjusted HR: 1.95 (95% CI: 1.19-3.20) for women with five or more children). Compared with women who did not breastfeed, the adjusted HR was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.52-0.98) among women who breastfed. For childbearing women who never breastfed, the adjusted HR was 1.58 (95% CI: 1.09-2.30) compared with nulliparous women, whereas for childbearing women who breastfed, the adjusted HR was 1.19 (95% CI: 0.99-1.43). CONCLUSION: Having more children was associated with a higher risk of CHD later in life, whereas breastfeeding was associated with a lower CHD risk. Women who both had children and breastfed did have a non-significantly higher risk of CHD.

A genomic approach to therapeutic target validation identifies a glucose-lowering GLP1R variant protective for coronary heart disease.

Regulatory authorities have indicated that new drugs to treat type 2 diabetes (T2D) should not be associated with an unacceptable increase in cardiovascular risk. Human genetics may be able to guide development of antidiabetic therapies by predicting cardiovascular and other health endpoints. We therefore investigated the association of variants in six genes that encode drug targets for obesity or T2D with a range of metabolic traits in up to 11,806 individuals by targeted exome sequencing and follow-up in 39,979 individuals by targeted genotyping, with additional in silico follow-up in consortia. We used these data to first compare associations of variants in genes encoding drug targets with the effects of pharmacological manipulation of those targets in clinical trials. We then tested the association of those variants with disease outcomes, including coronary heart disease, to predict cardiovascular safety of these agents. A low-frequency missense variant (Ala316Thr; rs10305492) in the gene encoding glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP1R), the target of GLP1R agonists, was associated with lower fasting glucose and T2D risk, consistent with GLP1R agonist therapies. The minor allele was also associated with protection against heart disease, thus providing evidence that GLP1R agonists are not likely to be associated with an unacceptable increase in cardiovascular risk. Our results provide an encouraging signal that these agents may be associated with benefit, a question currently being addressed in randomized controlled trials. Genetic variants associated with metabolic traits and multiple disease outcomes can be used to validate therapeutic targets at an early stage in the drug development process.

Physical activity and risk of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in a prospective cohort study.

Previous case-control studies have suggested a possible increased risk of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) with physical activity (PA), but this association has never been studied in prospective cohort studies. We therefore assessed the association between PA and risk of death from ALS in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. A total of 472,100 individuals were included in the analysis, yielding 219 ALS deaths. At recruitment, information on PA was collected thorough standardised questionnaires. Total PA was expressed by the Cambridge Physical Activity Index (CPAI) and analysed in relation to ALS mortality, using Cox hazard models. Interactions with age, sex, and anthropometric measures were assessed. Total PA was weakly inversely associated with ALS mortality with a borderline statistically significant trend across categories (p = 0.042), with those physically active being 33% less likely to die from ALS compared to those inactive: HR = 0.67 (95% CI 0.42-1.06). Anthropometric measures, sex, and age did not modify the association with CPAI. The present study shows a slightly decreased-not increased like in case-control studies-risk of dying from ALS in those with high levels of total PA at enrolment. This association does not appear confounded by age, gender, anthropometry, smoking, and education. Ours was the first prospective cohort study on ALS and physical activity.

Work, household, and leisure-time physical activity and risk of mortality in the EPIC-Spain cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Large-scale longitudinal data on the association of domain-specific physical activity (PA) and mortality is limited. Our objective was to evaluate the association of work, household (HPA), and leisure time PA (LTPA) with overall and cause-specific mortality in the EPIC-Spain study. METHODS: 38,379 participants (62.4% women), 30-65years old, and free of chronic disease at baseline were followed-up from recruitment (1992 - 1996) to December 31st, 2008 to ascertain vital status and cause of death. PA was evaluated at baseline and at a 3-year follow-up with a validated questionnaire (EPIC-PAQ) and combined variables were used to classify the participants by sub-domains of PA. Associations with overall, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality risks were assessed using competing risk Cox regression models adjusted by potential confounders. RESULTS: After 13.6years of mean follow-up, 1371 deaths were available for analyses. HPA was strongly associated to reduced overall (hazard ratio (HR) for Q4 vs. Q1=0.47 (0.34, 0.64)) and cause-specific mortalities in women and to lower cancer mortality in men (P for trend=0.004), irrespective of age, education, and lifestyle and morbidity variables. LTPA was associated with lower mortality in women (HR for Q4 vs. Q1=0.71 (0.52, 0.98)), but not men. No relationships were found between sedentariness at work and overall mortality. CONCLUSIONS: HPA was associated to lower mortality risk in men and women from the EPIC-Spain cohort, whereas LTPA also contributed to reduce risk of death in women. Considering the large proportion of total daily PA that HPA represents in some population groups, these results are of public health importance.

Association of Multiple Biomarkers of Iron Metabolism and Type 2 Diabetes: The EPIC-InterAct Study.

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies show an association between ferritin and type 2 diabetes (T2D), suggesting a role of high iron stores in T2D development. However, ferritin is influenced by factors other than iron stores, which is less the case for other biomarkers of iron metabolism. We investigated associations of ferritin, transferrin saturation (TSAT), serum iron, and transferrin with T2D incidence to clarify the role of iron in the pathogenesis of T2D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a European cohort with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the prospective association of ferritin, TSAT, serum iron, and transferrin with incident T2D in 11,052 cases and a random subcohort of 15,182 individuals and assessed whether these associations differed by subgroups of the population. RESULTS: Higher levels of ferritin and transferrin were associated with a higher risk of T2D (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] in men and women, respectively: 1.07 [1.01-1.12] and 1.12 [1.05-1.19] per 100 µg/L higher ferritin level; 1.11 [1.00-1.24] and 1.22 [1.12-1.33] per 0.5 g/L higher transferrin level) after adjustment for age, center, BMI, physical activity, smoking status, education, hs-CRP, alanine aminotransferase, and γ-glutamyl transferase. Elevated TSAT (≥45% vs. <45%) was associated with a lower risk of T2D in women (0.68 [0.54-0.86]) but was not statistically significantly associated in men (0.90 [0.75-1.08]). Serum iron was not associated with T2D. The association of ferritin with T2D was stronger among leaner individuals (Pinteraction < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of association of TSAT and transferrin with T2D suggests that the underlying relationship between iron stores and T2D is more complex than the simple link suggested by the association of ferritin with T2D.

No association between fish consumption and risk of stroke in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain): a 13·8-year follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE: To prospectively assess the associations between lean fish, fatty fish and total fish intakes and risk of stroke in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain). DESIGN: Fish intake was estimated from a validated dietary questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between the intakes of lean fish, fatty fish and total fish and stroke risk. Models were run separately for men and women. SETTING: Five Spanish regions (Asturias, San Sebastian, Navarra, Granada and Murcia). SUBJECTS: Individuals (n 41 020; 15 490 men and 25 530 women) aged 20-69 years, recruited from 1992 to 1996 and followed-up until December 2008 (December 2006 in the case of Asturias). Only participants with definite incident stroke were considered as cases. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 13·8 years, 674 strokes were identified and subsequently validated by record linkage with hospital discharge databases, primary-care records and regional mortality registries, comprising 531 ischaemic, seventy-nine haemorrhagic, forty-two subarachnoid and twenty-two unspecific strokes. After multiple adjustments, no significant associations were observed between lean fish, fatty fish and total fish consumption and the risk of stroke in men or women. In men, results revealed a non-significant trend towards an inverse association between lean fish (hazard ratio=0·84; 95 % CI 0·55, 1·29, P trend=0·06) and total fish consumption (hazard ratio=0·77; 95 % CI 0·51, 1·16, P trend=0·06) and risk of total stroke. CONCLUSIONS: In the EPIC-Spain cohort, no association was found between lean fish, fatty fish and total fish consumption and risk of stroke.

The association of substituting carbohydrates with total fat and different types of fatty acids with mortality and weight change among diabetes patients.

BACKGROUND: Substitution of carbohydrates with fat in a diet for type 2 diabetes patients is still debated. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the association between dietary carbohydrate intake and isocaloric substitution with (i) total fat, (ii) saturated fatty acids (SFA), (iii) mono-unsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and (iv) poly-unsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) with all-cause and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality risk and 5-year weight change in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The study included 6192 patients with type 2 diabetes from 15 cohorts of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at recruitment with country-specific food-frequency questionnaires. Cox and linear regression were used to estimate the associations with (CVD) mortality and weight change, adjusting for confounders and using different methods to adjust for energy intake. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 9.2 y ± SD 2.3 y, 791 (13%) participants had died, of which 268 (4%) due to CVD. Substituting 10 g or 5 energy% of carbohydrates by total fat was associated with a higher all-cause mortality risk (HR 1.07 [1.02-1.13]), or SFAs (HR 1.25 [1.11-1.40]) and a lower risk when replaced by MUFAs (HR 0.89 [0.77-1.02]). When carbohydrates were substituted with SFAs (HR 1.22 [1.00-1.49]) or PUFAs (HR 1.29 [1.02-1.63]) CVD mortality risk increased. The 5-year weight was lower when carbohydrates were substituted with total fat or MUFAs. These results were consistent over different energy adjustment methods. CONCLUSIONS: In diabetes patients, substitution of carbohydrates with SFAs was associated with a higher (CVD) mortality risk and substitution by total fat was associated with a higher all-cause mortality risk. Substitution of carbohydrates with MUFAs may be associated with lower mortality risk and weight reduction. Instead of promoting replacement of carbohydrates by total fat, dietary guideline should continue focusing on replacement by fat-subtypes; especially SFAs by MUFAs.

Life-course social position, obesity and diabetes risk in the EPIC-Spain Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The literature has consistently shown that extreme social-economic groups predicted type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), rather than summarising the social gradient throughout all society stratification. Body mass index (BMI) was established as the principal mediator, with little support for other anthropometries. Our aim was to investigate an individual life-course social position (LiSoP) gradient and its mediators with T2D risk in the EPIC-Spain cohort. METHODS: 36 296 participants (62% women), mostly aged 30-65 years, and free of T2D at baseline (1992-1996) were followed up for a mean of 12.1 years. A combined score of paternal occupation in childhood and own adult education assessed individual life-course social risk accumulation. Hazard ratios of T2D were estimated using Cox regression, stratifying by centre and age, and adjusting for different explanatory models, including anthropometric indices; dietary history; smoking and physical activity lifestyles; and clinical information. RESULTS: Final models evidenced significant risks in excess of 63% for middle and 90% for lower classes of LiSoP in men; and of 104 and 126%, respectively, in women. Concurrently, LiSoP presented significant social gradients for T2D risk (P < 0.01) in both sexes. Waist circumference (WC) accounted for most of the risk excess in women, and BMI and WC in men. CONCLUSIONS: LiSoP gradient was related to T2D risk in Spanish men and women. WC mostly explained the relationship in both genders, together with BMI in men, yet LiSoP retained an independent effect in final models.

Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe: population based study.

STUDY QUESTION: What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy for mandatory folic acid fortification of food does not exist? METHODS: This was a population based, observational study using data on 11,353 cases of NTD not associated with chromosomal anomalies, including 4162 cases of anencephaly and 5776 cases of spina bifida from 28 EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) registries covering approximately 12.5 million births in 19 countries between 1991 and 2011. The main outcome measures were total and live birth prevalence of NTD, as well as anencephaly and spina bifida, with time trends analysed using random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneities across registries and splines to model non-linear time trends. SUMMARY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS: Overall, the pooled total prevalence of NTD during the study period was 9.1 per 10,000 births. Prevalence of NTD fluctuated slightly but without an obvious downward trend, with the final estimate of the pooled total prevalence of NTD in 2011 similar to that in 1991. Estimates from Poisson models that took registry heterogeneities into account showed an annual increase of 4% (prevalence ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07) in 1995-99 and a decrease of 3% per year in 1999-2003 (0.97, 0.95 to 0.99), with stable rates thereafter. The trend patterns for anencephaly and spina bifida were similar, but neither anomaly decreased substantially over time. The live birth prevalence of NTD generally decreased, especially for anencephaly. Registration problems or other data artefacts cannot be excluded as a partial explanation of the observed trends (or lack thereof) in the prevalence of NTD. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: In the absence of mandatory fortification, the prevalence of NTD has not decreased in Europe despite longstanding recommendations aimed at promoting peri-conceptional folic acid supplementation and existence of voluntary folic acid fortification. FUNDING, COMPETING INTERESTS, DATA SHARING: The study was funded by the European Public Health Commission, EUROCAT Joint Action 2011-2013. HD and ML received support from the European Commission DG Sanco during the conduct of this study. No additional data available.

Parkinson's Disease Case Ascertainment in the EPIC Cohort: The NeuroEPIC4PD Study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Large epidemiological prospective studies represent an important opportunity for investigating risk factors for rare diseases such as Parkinson's disease (PD). Here we describe the procedures we used for ascertaining PD cases in the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) study. METHODS: The following three-phase procedure was used: (1) elaboration of a NeuroEPIC4PD template for clinical data collection, (2) identification of all potential PD cases via record linkage and (3) validation of the diagnosis through clinical record revision, in a population of 220,494 subjects recruited in 7 European countries. All cases were labelled with the NeuroEPIC4PD diagnoses of 'definite', 'very likely', 'probable', or 'possible' PD. RESULTS: A total of 881 PD cases were identified, with over 2,741,780 person-years of follow-up (199 definite, 275 very likely, 146 probable, and 261 possible). Of these, 734 were incident cases. The mean age at diagnosis was 67.9 years (SD 9.2) and 458 patients (52.0%) were men. Bradykinesia was the most frequent presenting motor sign (76.5%). Tremor-dominant and akinetic rigid forms of PD were the most common types of PD. A total of 289 patients (32.8%) were dead at the time of the last follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This exercise proved that it is feasible to ascertain PD in large population-based cohort studies and offers a potential framework to be replicated in similar studies.