Identification of a functional FADS1 3'UTR variant associated with erythrocyte n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids levels.

BACKGROUND: Blood polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) levels are determined by diet and by endogenous synthesis via Δ5- and Δ6-desaturases (encoded by the FADS1 and FADS2 genes, respectively). Genome-wide association studies have reported associations between FADS1-FADS2 polymorphisms and the plasma concentrations of PUFAs, HDL- and LDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides. However, much remains unknown regarding the molecular mechanisms explaining how variants affect the function of FADS1-FADS2 genes. OBJECTIVE: Here, we sought to identify the functional variant(s) within the FADS gene cluster. METHODS: To address this question, we (1) genotyped individuals (n = 540) for the rs174547 polymorphism to confirm associations with PUFA levels used as surrogate estimates of desaturase activities and (2) examined the functionality of variants in linkage disequilibrium with rs174547 using bioinformatics and luciferase reporter assays. RESULTS: The rs174547 minor allele was associated with higher erythrocyte levels of dihomo-γ-linolenic acid and lower levels of arachidonic acid, suggesting a lower Δ5-desaturase activity. In silico analyses suggested that rs174545 and rs174546, in perfect linkage disequilibrium with rs174547, might alter miRNA binding sites in the FADS1 3'UTR. In HuH7 and HepG2 cells transfected with FADS1 3'UTR luciferase vectors, the haplotype constructs bearing the rs174546T minor allele showed 30% less luciferase activity. This relative decrease reached 60% in the presence of miR-149-5p and was partly abolished by cotransfection with an miR-149-5p inhibitor. CONCLUSION: This study identifies FADS1 rs174546 as a functional variant that may explain the associations between FADS1-FADS2 polymorphisms and lipid-related phenotypes.

Determinants of social inequalities in stroke incidence across Europe: a collaborative analysis of 126 635 individuals from 48 cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge on the origins of the social gradient in stroke incidence in different populations is limited. This study aims to estimate the burden of educational class inequalities in stroke incidence and to assess the contribution of risk factors in determining these inequalities across Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The MORGAM (MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph) Study comprises 48 cohorts recruited mostly in the 1980s and 1990s in four European regions using standardised procedures for baseline risk factor assessment and fatal and non-fatal stroke ascertainment and adjudication during follow-up. Among the 126 635 middle-aged participants, initially free of cardiovascular diseases, generating 3788 first stroke events during a median follow-up of 10 years, we estimated differences in stroke rates and HRs for the least versus the most educated individuals. RESULTS: Compared with their most educated counterparts, the overall age-adjusted excess hazard for stroke was 1.54 (95% CI 1.25 to 1.91) and 1.41 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.71) in least educated men and women, respectively, with little heterogeneity across populations. Educational class inequalities accounted for 86-413 and 78-156 additional stroke events per 100 000 person-years in the least compared with most educated men and women, respectively. The additional events were equivalent to 47%-130% and 40%-89% of the average incidence rates. Inequalities in risk factors accounted for 45%-70% of the social gap in incidence in the Nordic countries, the UK and Lithuania-Kaunas (men), but for no more than 17% in Central and South Europe. The major contributors were cigarette smoking, alcohol intake and body mass index. CONCLUSIONS: Social inequalities in stroke incidence contribute substantially to the disease rates in Europe. Healthier lifestyles in the most disadvantaged individuals should have a prominent impact in reducing both inequalities and the stroke burden.

Ideal Cardiovascular Health and Incident Cardiovascular Disease: Heterogeneity Across Event Subtypes and Mediating Effect of Blood Biomarkers: The PRIME Study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate whether the association between baseline cardiovascular health (CVH) and incident cardiovascular disease differs according to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke subtypes, and to assess the mediating effect of inflammatory and hemostatic blood biomarkers. METHODS AND RESULTS: The association of ideal CVH with outcomes was derived in 9312 middle-aged men from Northern Ireland and France (whole cohort) in multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. The mediating effect of baseline inflammatory and hemostatic blood biomarkers was evaluated in a case-control study nested within the cohort after 10 years of follow-up. After a median follow-up of 10 years, 614 first CHD events and 117 first stroke events were adjudicated. Compared with those with poor CVH, those with an ideal CVH profile at baseline had a 72% lower risk of CHD (hazard ratio=0.28; 95% confidence interval, 0.17; 0.46) and a 76% lower risk of stroke (hazard ratio =0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.06; 0.98). The magnitude of the risk reductions was similar for incident angina and myocardial infarction, but was lower for ischemic stroke. In the controls, the mean concentrations of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, IL-6, and fibrinogen decreased with higher CVH status. Furthermore, the association of behavioral CVH with incident CHD was partly mediated by high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (16.69%), IL-6 (8.52%), and fibrinogen (7.30%) CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows no clear heterogeneity in the association of baseline CVH with the main subtypes of cardiovascular disease. This supports a universal promotion of ideal CVH for all cardiovascular disease subtypes. Furthermore, our mediation analysis suggests that the lower risk of CHD associated with ideal CVH is partly mediated by lower inflammatory and hemostatic blood biomarkers.

Combined effect of educational status and cardiovascular risk factors on the incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke in European cohorts: Implications for prevention.

Background The combined effect of social status and risk factors on the absolute risk of cardiovascular disease has been insufficiently investigated, but results provide guidance on who could benefit most through prevention. Methods We followed 77,918 cardiovascular disease-free individuals aged 35-74 years at baseline, from 38 cohorts covering Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK and Central Europe, for a median of 12 years. Using Fine-Gray models in a competing-risks framework we estimated the effect of the interaction of education with smoking, blood pressure and body weight on the cumulative risk of incident acute coronary heart disease and stroke. Results Compared with more educated smokers, the less educated had an added increase in absolute risk of cardiovascular disease of 3.1% (95% confidence interval + 0.1%, +6.2%) in men and of 1.5% (-1.9%, +5.0%) in women, consistent across smoking categories. Conversely, the interaction was negative for overweight: -2.6% (95% CI: -5.6%, +0.3%) and obese: -3.6% (-7.6%, +0.4%) men, suggesting that the more educated would benefit more from the same reduction in body weight. A weaker interaction was observed for body weight in women, and for blood pressure in both genders. Less educated men and women with a cluster of two or more risk factors had an added cardiovascular disease risk of 3.6% (+0.1%, +7.0%) and of 2.6% (-0.5%, +5.6%), respectively, compared with their more educated counterparts. Conclusions Socially disadvantaged subjects have more to gain from lifestyle and blood pressure modification, hopefully reducing both their risk and also social inequality in disease.

A genomic approach to therapeutic target validation identifies a glucose-lowering GLP1R variant protective for coronary heart disease.

Regulatory authorities have indicated that new drugs to treat type 2 diabetes (T2D) should not be associated with an unacceptable increase in cardiovascular risk. Human genetics may be able to guide development of antidiabetic therapies by predicting cardiovascular and other health endpoints. We therefore investigated the association of variants in six genes that encode drug targets for obesity or T2D with a range of metabolic traits in up to 11,806 individuals by targeted exome sequencing and follow-up in 39,979 individuals by targeted genotyping, with additional in silico follow-up in consortia. We used these data to first compare associations of variants in genes encoding drug targets with the effects of pharmacological manipulation of those targets in clinical trials. We then tested the association of those variants with disease outcomes, including coronary heart disease, to predict cardiovascular safety of these agents. A low-frequency missense variant (Ala316Thr; rs10305492) in the gene encoding glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP1R), the target of GLP1R agonists, was associated with lower fasting glucose and T2D risk, consistent with GLP1R agonist therapies. The minor allele was also associated with protection against heart disease, thus providing evidence that GLP1R agonists are not likely to be associated with an unacceptable increase in cardiovascular risk. Our results provide an encouraging signal that these agents may be associated with benefit, a question currently being addressed in randomized controlled trials. Genetic variants associated with metabolic traits and multiple disease outcomes can be used to validate therapeutic targets at an early stage in the drug development process.

Educational class inequalities in the incidence of coronary heart disease in Europe.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the burden of social inequalities in coronary heart disease (CHD) and to identify their major determinants in 15 European populations. METHODS: The MORGAM (MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph) study comprised 49 cohorts of middle-aged European adults free of CHD (110 928 individuals) recruited mostly in the mid-1980s and 1990s, with comparable assessment of baseline risk and follow-up procedures. We derived three educational classes accounting for birth cohorts and used regression-based inequality measures of absolute differences in CHD rates and HRs (ie, Relative Index of Inequality, RII) for the least versus the most educated individuals. RESULTS: N=6522 first CHD events occurred during a median follow-up of 12 years. Educational class inequalities accounted for 343 and 170 additional CHD events per 100 000 person-years in the least educated men and women compared with the most educated, respectively. These figures corresponded to 48% and 71% of the average event rates in each gender group. Inequalities in CHD mortality were mainly driven by incidence in the Nordic countries, Scotland and Lithuania, and by 28-day case-fatality in the remaining central/South European populations. The pooled RIIs were 1.6 (95% CI 1.4 to 1.8) in men and 2.0 (1.7 to 2.4) in women, consistently across population. Risk factors accounted for a third of inequalities in CHD incidence; smoking was the major mediator in men, and High-Density-Lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol in women. CONCLUSIONS: Social inequalities in CHD are still widespread in Europe. Since the major determinants of inequalities followed geographical and gender-specific patterns, European-level interventions should be tailored across different European regions.

Predictive Accuracy of the European Society of Cardiology SCORE Among French People.

PURPOSE: Assessment of cardiovascular (CV) risk with a predictive algorithm is recommended for managing CV disease prevention. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive accuracy of the European Society of Cardiology SCORE among French people. METHODS: Our analysis was based on the Third French MONICA population-based survey (1995-1996) and on a sample of subjects referred (from 1995 to 2000) for a CV checkup in a preventive cardiology unit. Vital status was obtained 10 years after inclusion. The 10-year predicted risk of CV death was calculated using the SCORE equation for low-risk countries and was compared with the 10-year incidence of CV death observed in the cohort. RESULTS: The sample was composed of 6915 participants aged 35 to 64 years, among whom 56 CV deaths occurred during the followup. The median risk SCORE (0.97%) did not differ from the 10-year incidence of CV death observed in the cohort (1.05%; 95% CI, 0.81-1.37). The median risk SCORE calculated for different categories of sex, age, educational level, family history of premature CV disease, physical activity, impaired fasting glucose, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol did not differ from the 10-year incidence of CV death observed in these categories. The C-statistic of the SCORE equation was 79% (73-85). Using a 5% threshold to discriminate people at high risk, 93% of participants were correctly classified (subjects with SCORE ≥5% who died from a CV causes during followup and those with SCORE <5% who did not). CONCLUSIONS: Among middle-aged French people, the SCORE equation adequately predicts CV death.

Expired-air carbon monoxide as a predictor of 16-year risk of all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of expired-air carbon monoxide (EACO) is commonly used to ascertain non-smoking status, although it can also reflect exposures not related to smoking. Our aim was to assess 16-year mortality according to EACO measured at baseline, in a general population. METHODS: Our analysis was based on the Third French MONICA population survey (1994-1997). Causes of death were obtained 16 years after inclusion, and assessment of determinants of mortality was based on Cox modeling. RESULTS: EACO was measured in 2232 apparently healthy participants aged 35-64. During follow-up, 195 deaths occurred (19% were due to cardio-vascular (CV) causes and 49% to cancer). At baseline, the mean EACO was 11.8 (±7.4)ppm, 4.6 (±2.5)ppm, 4.3 (±2.2)ppm for current, former and never smokers, respectively (P<0.001). After adjustment for main mortality risk factors and smoking, the hazard ratio (HR) for total mortality was 1.03[95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.06] per 1-unit increase in EACO, and it was 1.04[1.01-1.07] for cancer mortality. Adjusted HR for CV mortality was 1.05[1.01-1.10] but did not remain significant after additional adjustment for smoking (0.98[0.91-1.04]). Interactions between EACO and smoking were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: In a general population, baseline EACO is an independent predictor of 16-year all-cause and cancer mortality, after adjustment for confounders including smoking. Given that the effect of EACO is similar among smokers and non-smokers, EACO is probably not solely related to smoking but could also be a marker of inhaled ambient carbon monoxide and/or endogenous production. Besides, smoking better predicts CV mortality than EACO.

Traffic-related air pollution and the onset of myocardial infarction: disclosing benzene as a trigger? A small-area case-crossover study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Exposure to traffic is an established risk factor for the triggering of myocardial infarction (MI). Particulate matter, mainly emitted by diesel vehicles, appears to be the most important stressor. However, the possible influence of benzene from gasoline-fueled cars has not been explored so far. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a case-crossover study from 2,134 MI cases recorded by the local Coronary Heart Disease Registry (2000-2007) in the Strasbourg Metropolitan Area (France). Available individual data were age, gender, previous history of ischemic heart disease and address of residence at the time of the event. Nitrogen dioxide, particles of median aerodynamic diameter <10 µm (PM10), ozone, carbon monoxide and benzene air concentrations were modeled on an hourly basis at the census block level over the study period using the deterministic ADMS-Urban air dispersion model. Model input data were emissions inventories, background pollution measurements, and meteorological data. We have found a positive, statistically significant association between concentrations of benzene and the onset of MI: per cent increase in risk for a 1 µg/m3 increase in benzene concentration in the previous 0, 0-1 and 1 day was 10.4 (95% confidence interval 3-18.2), 10.7 (2.7-19.2) and 7.2 (0.3-14.5), respectively. The associations between the other pollutants and outcome were much lower and in accordance with the literature. CONCLUSION: We have observed that benzene in ambient air is strongly associated with the triggering of MI. This novel finding needs confirmation. If so, this would mean that not only diesel vehicles, the main particulate matter emitters, but also gasoline-fueled cars--main benzene emitters-, should be taken into account for public health action.

14-Year risk of all-cause mortality according to hypoglycaemic drug exposure in a general population.

PURPOSE: Guidelines for management of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus recommend the use of hypoglycaemic drugs when lifestyle interventions remain insufficient for glycaemic control. Recent trials have provided worrying safety data on certain hypoglycaemic drugs. The aim of this study was to assess 14-year risk of all-cause mortality according to hypoglycaemic drug exposure at baseline, in a general population. METHODS: Our analysis was based on the observational Third French MONICA survey on cardiovascular risk factors (1995-1997). Vital status was obtained 14 years after inclusion, and assessment of determinants of mortality was based on multivariable Cox modelling. RESULTS: There were 3336 participants and 248 deaths over the 14-year period. At baseline, there were 3162 (95%) non-diabetic, 46 (1%) untreated type 2 diabetic and 128 (4%) type 2 diabetic subjects with hypoglycaemic drug treatment (metformin alone (31%), sulfonylureas alone or in combination (49%), insulin alone or in combination (10%), or other treatments (9%)). After adjustment for duration of diabetes, history of diabetes complications, area of residence (centre), age, gender, educational level, alcohol consumption, smoking, blood pressure, LDL and HDL cholesterol, which all were significant and independent determinants of mortality, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 3.22 [95% confidence interval: 0.87-11.9] for untreated diabetic subjects, 2.28 [0.98-5.26] for diabetics treated with metformin alone, 1.70 [0.92-3.16] for diabetics with sulfonylureas and 4.92 [1.70-14.3] for diabetic with insulin versus non-diabetic subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the conclusion that until more evidence is provided from randomized trials, a prudent approach should be to restrain use of insulin to situations in which combinations of non-insulin agents have failed to appropriately achieve glycemic control, as it is recommended in the current guidelines for the management of type 2 diabetes.

Lipoprotein(a) plasma levels and the risk of cancer: the PRIME study.

Although experimental studies have shown lipoprotein(a) antiangiogenic and antitumoral effects, the association of lipoprotein(a) levels with cancer in population studies remains elusive and poorly documented. The aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between lipoprotein(a) plasma levels and the incidence of cancer over 10 years of follow-up. Data from two French centres of the PRIME cohort were used, representing 5237 men aged 50-59 years and free from a history of cancer at baseline. Data on medical history, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors were obtained by questionnaire. Lipoprotein(a) plasma levels were analysed from fasting blood samples collected at baseline. The relationship between lipoprotein(a) levels and first incident cancer was studied using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards models for all-site and the main-site-specific cancers, adjusted for various potential confounders including age, centre, smoking status and alcohol consumption. During follow-up, 456 new cancers were identified. No significant association was found between lipoprotein(a) and the all-site or main-site-specific cancers (hazard ratios for quartiles 2-4 vs. 1, respectively: 1.24, 1.11, 1.29, P=0.23). However, a higher risk seemed to be observed for highest lipoprotein(a) levels in all sites, lung, colorectal or tobacco/alcohol-related cancers. For prostate cancer, the lowest risk was observed for the highest levels of lipoprotein(a) (P=0.12). In conclusion, no evident association was found between the lipoprotein(a) levels and the incidence of cancer. Nevertheless, a higher cancer risk seemed to be observed for the highest lipoprotein(a) levels. Further research focusing on the lipoprotein(a) qualitative structure, that is, apolipoprotein(a) polymorphism could help clarify this highly complex relation.

Link between traditional cardiovascular risk factors and inflammation in patients with early arthritis: results from a French multicenter cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the characteristics of traditional cardiovascular risk factors for untreated patients with early arthritis (EA) and healthy subjects, and to look for a link between cardiovascular risk factors and inflammation in EA patients. METHODS: This multicenter case-control study enrolled 607 patients with EA (ESPOIR cohort) and 1,821 age- and sex-matched controls (World Health Organization MONICA survey). Lipid levels, blood pressure, glucose levels, and exposure to smoking were characterized in patients and controls. Systemic inflammation was quantified in EA patients. Traditional cardiovascular risk factor characteristics were compared between patients with EA and controls. The link between cardiovascular risk factors and inflammation was assessed in EA patients. RESULTS: Mean ± SEM total cholesterol (2.14 ± 0.022 versus 2.34 ± 0.017 gm/liter; P < 0.001), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (0.60 ± 0.011 versus 0.63 ± 0.007 gm/liter; P = 0.020), and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (1.28 ± 0.025 versus 1.51 ± 0.016 gm/liter; P < 0.001) were lower in EA patients than in controls. Triglycerides, triglycerides/HDL ratio, and pulse pressure were higher in patients with EA. Diastolic blood pressure and glucose levels were lower in EA patients. Former or current smokers were more frequent in patients with EA. Total and HDL cholesterol levels were negatively associated with C-reactive protein or serum interleukin-6 levels. CONCLUSION: Total, HDL, and LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, diastolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, glucose, and triglycerides/HDL ratio differ between patients with EA and controls. Some of these risk factors appear to be linked to systemic inflammation. Such initial differences could modulate the risk of cardiovascular events later in the course of arthritis.

Association between a thyroid hormone receptor-α gene polymorphism and blood pressure but not with coronary heart disease risk.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid hormones (THs) exert multiple biological roles including effects on the cardiovascular system (lipid profile, blood pressure (BP) and cardiac output). The lipid-lowering actions of TH are mediated by the TH receptor-ß whereas the mechanisms explaining the BP variations concomitant with the thyroid disorders are less understood. As the TH receptor-α (TR-α) has been associated with many of TH actions on the cardiovascular system in mice models, we hypothesized that it could be involved in the latter. We thus tested whether polymorphisms in TR-α (THRA gene) could be associated with BP level variation. Secondarily, we tested for association with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. METHODS: We analyzed the associations between five THRA polymorphisms and (i) BP level in two population-based studies (MONICA Lille n = 1,155; MONICA Toulouse n = 1,170) and (ii) the risk of CHD in two case-control studies (Lille CHD n = 558 cases/568 controls; PRIME n = 527 cases/584 controls). RESULTS: Individuals carrying the rs939348 T allele had higher systolic BP (~+1.3 mm Hg) than CC individuals in both the MONICA Lille (P = 0.02) and Toulouse (P = 0.03) studies. The odds ratio (OR) for hypertension was 1.25 (P = 0.02) in the combined sample. Concerning the CHD risk, no significant association could be detected. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, our study showed associations between the THRA rs939348 polymorphism and systolic BP and the risk of hypertension but not with CHD, although we admit that the statistical power available to study any relationship with CHD was very limited. Further larger association studies are needed to confirm our findings.

Association of vascular risk factors with cervical artery dissection and ischemic stroke in young adults.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the risk factors for cervical artery dissection (CEAD), a major cause of ischemic stroke (IS) in young adults. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking, hypercholesterolemia, and obesity are important risk factors for IS. However, their specific role in CEAD is poorly investigated. Our aim was to compare the prevalence of vascular risk factors in CEAD patients versus referents and patients who suffered an IS of a cause other than CEAD (non-CEAD IS) in the multicenter Cervical Artery Dissection and Ischemic Stroke Patients (CADISP) study. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study sample comprised 690 CEAD patients (mean age, 44.2 ± 9.9 years; 43.9% women), 556 patients with a non-CEAD IS (44.7 ± 10.5 years; 39.9% women), and 1170 referents (45.9 ± 8.1 years; 44.1% women). We compared the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m²) or overweightness (body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m² and <30 kg/m²) between the 3 groups using a multinomial logistic regression adjusted for country of inclusion, age, and gender. Compared with referents, CEAD patients had a lower prevalence of hypercholesterolemia (odds ratio 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.42 to 0.71; P<0.0001), obesity (odds ratio 0.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.26 to 0.52; P<0.0001), and overweightness (odds ratio 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.57 to 0.88; P=0.002) but were more frequently hypertensive (odds ratio 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.32 to 2.1; P<0.0001). All vascular risk factors were less frequent in CEAD patients compared with young patients with a non-CEAD IS. The latter were more frequently hypertensive, diabetic, and current smokers compared with referents. CONCLUSION: These results, from the largest series to date, suggest that hypertension, although less prevalent than in patients with a non-CEAD IS, could be a risk factor of CEAD, whereas hypercholesterolemia, obesity, and overweightness are inversely associated with CEAD.

Ten-year risk of all-cause mortality: assessment of a risk prediction algorithm in a French general population.

While assessment of global cardiovascular risk is uniformly recommended for risk factor management, prediction of all-cause death has seldom been considered in available charts. We established an updated algorithm to predict absolute 10-year risk of all-cause mortality in apparently healthy subjects living in France, a country with high life expectancy. Analyses were based on the Third French MONICA Survey on cardiovascular risk factors (1995-1996) carried out in 3,208 participants from the general population aged 35-64. Vital status was obtained 10 years after inclusion and assessment of determinants of mortality was based on multivariable Cox modelling. One-hundred-fifty-six deaths were recorded. Independent determinants of mortality were living area (Northern France), older age, male gender, no high-school completion, smoking, systolic blood pressure ≥ 160 mmHg, LDL-cholesterol ≥ 5.2 mmol/l, and diabetes. Score sheets were developed to easily estimate 10-year risk of death. For example, a non diabetic, heavy smoker, 46-year old man, living in South-Western France, who did not complete high-school, with LDL-cholesterol ≥ 5.2 mmol/l and systolic blood pressure < 160 mmHg, has a 17% probability of death in the ten coming years. The C-statistic of the prediction model was 0.76 [95% CI: 0.72-0.80] with a degree of overoptimism estimated at 0.0058 in a bootstrap sample. Calibration was satisfying: P value for Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) test was 0.483. This prediction algorithm is a simple tool for guiding practitioners towards a more or less aggressive management of risk factors in apparently healthy subjects.

Relative contribution of lipids and apolipoproteins to incident coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke: the PRIME Study.

AIM: To compare within the same cohort the association of a large panel of lipids with the risk of incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and ischemic stroke events in participants of the Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction. METHODS: In this binational (Northern Ireland and France) prospective cohort, we considered 9,711 men aged 50-59 years free of CHD and stroke at baseline (1991-1993). The hazard ratios of each lipid marker for CHD and ischemic stroke events were estimated in separate Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, study center, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, current smoking status, body mass index and diabetes. RESULTS: After 10 years of follow-up, 635 men had a first CHD and 98 a first ischemic stroke event. Total cholesterol (total-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), non-HDL-C, triglycerides, apolipoprotein (Apo) A1 and Apo B100, their ratios and lipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)] were all significantly predictive of future CHD. Associations with ischemic stroke followed the same trend as for CHD, but with lower strength, and none were statistically significant. However, none of the differences between the hazard ratios for CHD and for ischemic stroke were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: In healthy, middle-aged men, total-C, HDL-C, LDL-C, non-HDL-C, triglycerides, Apo A1 and Apo B100, their ratios and Lp(a) are, if anything, weak predictors of ischemic stroke events over a 10-year period.

C-reactive protein, interleukin 6, fibrinogen and risk of sudden death in European middle-aged men: the PRIME study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine prospectively the association of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin 6, and fibrinogen with sudden death in asymptomatic European men. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among the 9771 men from the Etude PRospective de l'Infarctus du Myocarde (PRIME) Study, 664 had a first coronary heart disease over 10 years, including 50 sudden deaths, 34 nonsudden coronary deaths, and 580 nonfatal coronary heart disease events. For each outcome, 2 matched controls, who were free of coronary heart disease at the index date, were randomly selected from the initial cohort (nested case control study design). There was a 3-fold increased risk (95% CI, 1.20 to 7.81) of sudden death between the upper and the lower third of interleukin 6 after adjustment for baseline confounders in conditional logistic regression analysis. Neither high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hazard ratio(third versus first tertile)=1.27; 95% CI, 0.51 to 3.17) nor fibrinogen (hazard ratio(third versus first tertile)=1.90; 95% CI, 0.76 to 4.75) was associated with sudden death. For comparison, there was a 6-fold increased risk of nonsudden coronary death from the highest compared with the lowest tertile of fibrinogen and a trend toward an association with higher C-reactive protein and higher interleukin 6. All 3 inflammatory biomarkers were moderately, but significantly, associated with nonfatal coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: Interleukin 6, but not high-sensitivity C-reactive protein or fibrinogen, is an independent predictor of sudden death in asymptomatic European men.

Characteristics of current smokers, former smokers, and second-hand exposure and evolution between 1985 and 2007.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess trends in the prevalence of adult smoking habits between 1985-1987 and 2005-2007 in three distinct areas of France and their contribution to coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates. METHODS: Participants were recruited as part of the French Monitoring trends and determinants in Cardiovascular disease survey in 1985-1987 (n=3760), 1995-1997 (n=3347), and 2005-2007 (n=3573). They were randomly selected from electoral rolls after stratification for sex, 10-year age group (35-64 years), and town size. Smoking habits were analyzed by questioning the participants about earlier or current consumption, the number of cigarettes smoked per day, age at first cigarette, pipe tobacco and cigarillo consumption, quit attempts, age at quitting, and second-hand exposure. Predicted CHD death rates as a function of smoking were predicted with the SCORE risk equation. RESULTS: In men, a significant decrease in tobacco exposure (from 40 to 24.3%) between 1985-1987 and 2005-2007 was observed. In women, the prevalence of current smokers increased from 18.9 to 20% and that of former smokers rose from 8.7 to 25.5%. In both men and women, average daily cigarette consumption and second-hand exposure to smoke fell between 1995-1997 and 2005-2007. Predicted CHD death rates as a function of smoking trends decreased in men (range 10-15%) but increased in women (range 0.1-3.6%). CONCLUSION: This study found divergent trends in the prevalence of smoking in men and women aged between 35 and 64 years over the period of 1985 to 2007. These changes may have contributed to the decline in CHD death in men but not in women.

Respective contribution of conventional risk factors and antihypertensive treatment to stable angina pectoris and acute coronary syndrome as the first presentation of coronary heart disease: the PRIME Study.

OBJECTIVE: To test whether conventional risk factors and antihypertensive treatment were more predictive of stable angina (SA) than acute coronary syndrome (ACS) as the first presentation of coronary heart disease (CHD). DESIGN: We used data from the PRIME Study (Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction), a prospective cohort of 9758 asymptomatic middle-aged men recruited from WHO MONICA centers in Northern Ireland and France between 1991 and 1993. SA and ACS events were registered during 5 years of follow-up. METHODS: Hazard ratios (HRs) of each risk factor measured at baseline for SA and ACS events were assessed using separate Cox proportional hazard models. Difference between HRs was estimated by the bootstrap method. RESULTS: After 5 years of follow-up, there were 114 SA and 178 ACS as the first presentation of CHD. Diastolic blood pressure [adjusted HRs for 1 standard deviation increase = 1.34; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17-1.54 vs. 1.04; 95% CI: 0.87-1.25; P for comparison between HRs = 0.012], and possibly cigarette smoking over or equal to 20 pack-years (adjusted HR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.43-2.99 vs. 1.29; 95% CI: 0.83-2.01; P for comparison between HRs = 0.062) were more predictive of ACS than SA, whereas this was the opposite for antihypertensive treatment (adjusted HR = 2.18; 95% CI: 1.39-3.41 for SA vs. 1.28; 95% CI: 0.85-1.93 for ACS, P for comparison between HRs = 0.049). CONCLUSION: The present data support that SA and ACS, as the first presentation of CHD, may not share exactly the same determinants.