Weight change and risk of incident type 2 diabetes: short, medium and long-term follow-up in tehran lipid and glucose study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the high burden of obesity and Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in the Middle East/West Asia region, the effect of weight change on the development of T2DM is poorly addressed. Therefore, we aimed to assess the impact of 3-year body weight change on incident of T2DM over 3-, 6-, and 9-year periods among Iranian adults. METHODS: A total of 6930 participants (men = 2567) aged ≥ 20 years free of T2DM or cancer at baseline were included. Weight measurements were taken at baseline (2002-2005) and approximately 3 years later. Participants were categorized based on their weight change ratio into ≥ 5% loss, stable (± 5%), and ≥ 5% gain. Generalized estimating equations (GEE), adjusted with age, sex, education levels, baseline measurements of fasting plasma glucose, weight, waist circumference, triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, family history of diabetes, current smoker, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular disease were applied to estimate the Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of weight change categories for incident T2DM, considering stable weight as a reference. RESULTS: During median follow-ups of 3-, 6-, and 9-year, 295, 505, and 748 cases of T2DM occurred, respectively. Weight gain of ≥ 5%, as compared to stable weight group (± 5%), was associated with increased T2DM risk, with ORs of 1.58 (95% CI 1.16-2.14), 1.76 (1.41-2.20), and 1.70 (1.40-2.05) for the 3-, 6-, and 9-year follow-ups, respectively, in multivariable analysis; corresponding values for weight loss ≥ 5% were 0.48 (0.29-0.80), 0.57 (0.40-0.81), and 0.51 (0.38-0.68), respectively. This association persisted even after adjusting for attained weight. Subgroup analysis showed consistent associations across age, gender, and body mass index categories. CONCLUSION: Weight gain and loss of ≥ 5% were associated with increased and decreased risks of incident T2DM, respectively, regardless of attained weight. This association was consistent over various follow-up durations among the Iranian population as recommended by guidelines.

Association between Wrist Circumference and Risk of Any Fracture in Adults: Findings from 15 Years of Follow-Up in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

We evaluated whether wrist circumference (WrC), as a novel anthropometric measure, is associated with incidences of any fractures. The study population included 8288 adults (45.3% men) aged ≥30 years, who were followed for incidences of any fractures from 31 January 1999 to 16 March 2016. We used Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for well-known risk factors to evaluate the association of WrC, both as continuous and categorical variables (bottom tertile as reference), with incidences of any fractures and major osteoporotic fractures (MOF). Over 15 years of follow-ups, 348 fractures occurred (men = 162). For a 1 cm increase in WrC, hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.03-1.35) for incident any fractures and 1.22 (1.01-1.49) for incident MOF. In addition to WrC, age, female sex, lower BMI, higher WC, current smoking, and usage of steroidal medications were significantly associated with the incidences of any fractures. Moreover, participants in the middle and top tertiles of WrC had a higher risk of incidence for any fractures [HR = 1.62 (1.19-2.20) and 1.70 (1.14-2.55), respectively, p-value for trend = 0.012]. We presented WrC as a strong and independent risk factor for incidences of any fractures that might be considered in the risk prediction of bone fracture in Iranian adults.

The association between low-density and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with incident cardiovascular disease among low-risk Iranians during 2 decades follow-up.

INTRODUCTION: To examine the associations between low-density and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and non-HDL-C, respectively) with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in low-risk subjects. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From a total of 2467 non-diabetic aged 40-70 years, free of CVD with LDL-C range 1.81 ≤ LDL-C < 4.91 mmol/L with 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk < 7.5 %, the associations of LDL-C and non-HDL-C with incident CVD were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, HDL-C, triglycerides, chronic kidney disease, current smoking, hypertension, and family history of CVD. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 18 years, 559 CVD events occurred. Compared to the LDL-C < 2.59 mmol/L as reference, the categories of 2.59 ≤ LDL-C < 3.36, 3.36 ≤ LDL-C < 4.14, and ≥ 4.14 mmol/L were associated with hazard ratios (95 % confidence intervals) of 1.39(0.89-2.18), 1.72(1.11-2.68), and 2.19(1.36-3.51) for incident CVD (P for trend <0.0001), respectively. Compared to the non-HDL-C < 3.36 as reference, the categories of 3.36 ≤ non-HDL-C < 4.14, 4.14 ≤ non-HDL-C < 4.91, and ≥ 4.91 mmol/L were associated with 1.48(0.96-2.30), 1.37(0.89-2.16), and 2.15(1.36-3.39) higher risk for incident CVD (P for trend = 0.001), respectively. Among those with ASCVD score <5 % (n = 2070), even the 2.59 ≤ LDL-C < 3.36 mmol/L increased the risk for CVD [1.73(1.01-2.97)]. Results for non-HDL-C categories remained unchanged compared to those with ASCVD risk < 7.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Among Iranian individuals with ASCVD risk as little as < 5 %, LDL-C ≥ 2.59 mmol/L and non-HDL-C ≥ 3.36 mmol/L, independent of traditional risk factors, were associated with a significantly higher risk of incident CVD, individuals that might potentially benefit from pharmacological therapy.

Prevalence of short and long sleep duration: Ravansar NonCommunicable Disease (RaNCD) cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of short and long sleep duration varies in different countries and changes over time. There are limited studies on Iranians' sleep duration, and we aimed to evaluate the prevalence of short and long sleep duration and associated factors among people living in Kermanshah, Iran. METHODS: This population-based cross-sectional study was conducted between November 2014 and February 2017. Data was collected from 10,025 adults aged 35 to 65 years using census sampling, and we evaluated the short and long sleep duration (≤ 6 and ≥ 9 h, respectively) and its relation with the socio-demographic factors and health-related status of the participants. RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 48.1 years (standard deviation = 8.2), and 47.4% of participants were male. Of our participants, 11.6% had short, and 21.9% had long sleep duration. Age ≥ 50 years, female gender, being single, mobile use for longer than 8 h per day, working in night shifts, moderate and good levels of physical activity, BMI ≥ 30, past smoking, and alcohol use were associated with short sleep duration (P < 0.05). Female gender and living in rural areas were associated with long sleep duration (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: In the Ravansar population, short and long sleep duration are prevalent, with long sleep duration having higher prevalence. People at risk, such as night shift workers, as well as modifiable factors, such as mobile phone use, can be targeted with interventions to improve sleep hygiene.

Incidence and risk factors of severe non-proliferative/proliferative diabetic retinopathy: More than a decade follow up in the Tehran Lipids and Glucose Study.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To examine the incidence rate of severe non-proliferative and proliferative diabetic retinopathy (severe-NPDR/PDR) and determine its potential risk factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study consisted of 1,169 participants (675 women) with type 2 diabetes mellitus, aged ≥20 years. A trained interviewer collected information about the history of pan-retinal photocoagulation as a result of diabetic retinopathy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied. RESULTS: We found 187 cases (126 women) of severe-NPDR/PDR during a median follow-up period of 12.7 years; the corresponding incidence rate was 13.6 per 1,000 person-years. Being overweight (hazard ratio [HR], 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60, 0.39-0.92) and obese (HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.27-0.83) were associated with lower risk, whereas being smoker (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.12-2.74), having fasting plasma glucose levels 7.22-10.0 mmol/L (HR 2.81, 95% CI 1.70-4.62), fasting plasma glucose ≥10 mmol/L (HR 5.87, 95% CI 3.67-9.41), taking glucose-lowering medications (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.87-3.56), prehypertension status (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.05-2.58) and newly diagnosed hypertension (HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.06-3.65) increased the risk of severe-NPDR/PDR. Among newly diagnosed diabetes patients, being male was associated with a 59% lower risk of severe-NPDR/PDR (HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.21-0.79). Furthermore, patients who had an intermediate level of education (6-12 years) had a higher risk of developing PDR (HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.05-3.30) compared with those who had <6 years of education. CONCLUSIONS: Among Iranians with type 2 diabetes mellitus, 1.36% developed severe-NPDR/PDR annually. Normal bodyweight, being a smoker, out of target fasting plasma glucose level, prehypertension and newly diagnosed hypertension status were independent risk factors of severe-NPDR/PDR. Regarding the sight-threatening entity of advanced diabetic retinopathy, the multicomponent strategy to control diabetes, abstinence of smoking and tight control of blood pressure should be considered.

Sudden cardiac death among Iranian population: a two decades follow-up of Tehran lipid and glucose study.

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is described as death within one hour, if observed, from the onset of symptoms, and within 24 h of being alive and well if not observe. Study population includes 3705 men and 4446 women, aged ≥ 30 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the risk factors associated with SCD. After a median follow-up of 17.9 years, 244 SCD (165 in males) occurred. The age-standardized incidence rate (95% confidence intervals (CI)) of SCD was 2.3 (2.1-2.7) per 1000 person-year. Current smoking [Hazard ratio (HR): 2.43, 95% CI: 1.73-3.42], high waist circumference [1.49: 1.04-2.12], hypertension [1.39: 1.05-1.84], type 2 diabetes mellitus [2.78: 2.09-3.69], pulse rate ≥ 90 beats per/minute [1.72: 1.22-2.42] and prevalent cardiovascular disease [1.75: 1.26-2.45] were significant risk factors. The corresponding population attributed fractions (PAF) were 14.30, 16.58, 14.03, 19.60, 7.62, and 8.30, respectively. Being overweight [0.58: 0.40-0.83] and obese [0.61: 0.38-0.98] decreased the risk of SCD. After excluding known diabetes cases from our data analysis, the newly diagnosed diabetes still showed an HR of 2.0 (1.32-3.00) with a PAF of 7.15% in the full adjustment model. To deal with sudden death as a catastrophic outcome, multi-component strategies by policy health makers are suggested.

Macrosomia is a risk factor for incident maternal chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and macrosomia are associated with several adverse outcomes including diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases, however, the relationship between GDM/macrosomia with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a matter of debate. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between the history of macrosomia with or without GDM and incident maternal CKD. METHODS: The study population includes 2669 women aged 18-50 years without known diabetes mellitus and CKD from participants of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. The study population was categorized into 3 groups; group 1: GDM/macrosomia and without diabetes mellitus (n = 204), group 2: newly diagnosed incident diabetes mellitus (NDM) in the presence or abcence of GDM/Macrosomia (n = 113), and, group 3: the reference group including women without prior history of GDM/macrosomia and free of NDM (n = 2352). CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression adjusted for baseline values of age, body mass index, waist circumference, parity numbers, smoking, educational level, gestational hypertension, eGFR, systolic and diastolic blood pressures (SBP and DBP, respectively), anti-hypertensive medication, and family history of diabetes mellitus was applied for data analyses. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.9 years, 613 incident CKD cases were identified. The multivariable hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) on GDM/macrosomia group was [1.32 (1.02-1.72)]; the risk was more prominent among non-hypertensive women [1.41 (1.07-1.85); P for interaction: 0.046]. Moreover, the history of macrosomia alone also showed a significant risk [1.36 (1.04-1.78)]; however, history of GDM alone did not have a significant risk [0.92 (0.34-2.46)]. Age, current smoking, eGFR, and SBP remained as independent risk factors for incident CKD. CONCLUSIONS: A history of GDM/macrosomia or macrosomia alone, independent of subsequent diabetes mellitus was associated with significant risk for incident maternal CKD. Pregnancy may provide a unique situation to identify high-risk women at risk for CKD that could benefit from regular monitoring of kidney function and providing risk modifying strategies.

Sex-specific incidence rates and risk factors for fracture: A 16-year follow-up from the Tehran lipid and glucose study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the population-based incidence of any-fracture and its potential risk factors in a sex-split cohort of the Iranian population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 3477 men and 4085 women with a mean (SD) age of 47.92(13.1) and 45.88(11.47) years, respectively were entered into the study. The age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were reported for the whole population and each sex separately. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for potential risk factors. Only fractures requiring inpatients' care were considered as the outcome. We also defined major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) as the composite of the fractures that occurred in the vertebral, wrist, hip and pelvic sites among population aged ≥50 years. RESULTS: During the median (IQR) follow-up of 15.9 years, 4.34%men and 3.75% women experienced at least one incident any-fracture. The annual age-standardized incidence rates (95% CI) among men and women were 330.9 (279.6-388.9) and 319.4(268.1-377.3) per 100,000 person-years, respectively; the corresponding values for incidence of MOF was 202.2(142.3-278.6) in men and 342.1(260.4-441.0) per 100,000 person-years for women. In the multivariable model, among the whole population, age groups ≥50 years, central obesity [HR: 95% CI 1.77(1.32-2.39)], current smoking [1.59(1.15-2.20)] and using steroid medications [2.20(1.04-4.67)] significantly increased the risk of incident fracture (all P < 0.05); however the impact of the first two risk factors were more prominent among women (P for interaction ≤0.01). Moreover, being obese was associated with a lower risk of incident first fracture in the total population [HR: 95% CI: 0.61(0.40-0.92)]. Being men [HR: 95% CI: 0.54(0.30-0.99)] and prediabetes status [HR: 95% CI: 0.53(0.30-0.95)] were also associated with lower risk for MOF. CONCLUSION: This is the first report of long-term incidence rate of any-fracture and MOF conducted in the metropolitan city of Tehran. Among modifiable risk factors of fracture, in the whole population smoking habit and using steroid medications and particularly for women central obesity should be considered as main risk factors for preventive strategies. Prediabetes status was associated with lower risk of MOF.

National trends in cardiovascular health metrics among Iranian adults using results of three cross-sectional STEPwise approaches to surveillance surveys.

To examine the trends of 7 cardiovascular health metrics (CVH metrics) incorporate of smoking, physical activity, diet, body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC), and blood pressure (BP) level during three cross-sectional STEPwise approaches to surveillance (STEPS), 2007-2016, among Iranian adults. The study population consisted of 19,841 women and 17,243 men, aged 20-65 years. The CVH metrics were categorized as 'ideal', 'intermediate', and 'poor'. The sex-stratified weighted prevalence rate of each CVH metrics was reported. The conditional probability of each poor versus combined intermediate and ideal metric was analyzed using logistic regression. In 2016 compared to 2007, the prevalence of poor BP level (20.4% vs. 23.7%), smoking (13.7% vs. 23.8%), TC ≥ 240 mg/dl (2.4% vs. 11.2%) and FPG < 100 mg/dl (75.6% vs. 82.3%) declined, whereas poor physical activity level (49.7% vs. 30%), poor healthy diet score (38.1% vs. 4.1%), BMI levels ≥ 25 kg/m2 (62.8% vs. 57.8%) increased. Despite a high prevalence of obesity among women, it remained constant in women but showed an increasing trend in men; moreover, the trends of low physical activity and current smoking were better for women. Despite some improvement in CVH metrics, < 4% of Iranian adults meet ≥ 6 CVH metrics in 2016; this issue needs intervention at the public health level using a multi-component strategy.

External validation of the European risk assessment tool for chronic cardio-metabolic disorders in a Middle Eastern population.

BACKGROUND: High burden of chronic cardio-metabolic disorders including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been reported in the Middle East and North Africa region. We aimed to externally validate a non-laboratory risk assessment tool for the prediction of the chronic cardio-metabolic disorders in the Iranian population. METHODS: The predictors included age, body mass index, waist circumference, use of antihypertensive medications, current smoking, and family history of cardiovascular disease and/or diabetes. For external validation of the model in the Tehran lipids and glucose study (TLGS), the Area under the curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness of fit test were performed for discrimination and calibration, respectively. RESULTS: Among 1310 men and 1960 women aged 28-85 years, 29.5% and 47.4% experienced chronic cardio-metabolic disorders during the 6 and 9-year follow-up, respectively. The model showed acceptable discrimination, with an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI 0.69-0.75) for men and 0.73 (95% CI 0.71-0.76) for women. The calibration of the model was good for both genders (min HL P = 0.5). Considering separate outcomes, AUC was highest for CKD (0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.79)) and lowest for T2DM (0.65 (95% CI 0.61-0.69)), in men. As for women, AUC was highest for CVD (0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.86)) and lowest for T2DM (0.69 (95% CI 0.66-0.73)). The 9-year follow-up demonstrated almost similar performances compared to the 6-year follow-up. Using Cox regression in place of logistic multivariable analysis, model's discrimination and calibration were reduced for prediction of chronic cardio-metabolic disorders; the issue which had more effect on the prediction of incident CKD among women. Moreover, adding data of educational levels and marital status did not improve, the discrimination and calibration in the enhanced model. CONCLUSION: This model showed acceptable discrimination and good calibration for risk prediction of chronic cardio-metabolic disorders in short and long-term follow-up in the Iranian population.

The external validity and performance of the no-laboratory American Diabetes Association screening tool for identifying undiagnosed type 2 diabetes among the Iranian population.

AIMS: The aim of this study is to assess the American Diabetes Association (ADA) risk score as a self-assessment screening tool for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in Iran. METHODS: In a national survey of risk factors for non-communicable diseases, we included 3458 Iranian adults. The discrimination and validity were assessed using the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, Youden's index, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). The frequency of high-risk Iranian population who need a glucose test and those who need intervention were also estimated. RESULTS: The AUC was 73.7% and the suggested ADA score of ≥5 yielded a sensitivity of 51.6%, specificity 82.4%, NPV 98.3%, and PPV 7.9%. This threshold results in classifying 18.6% of the Iranians, equals to 8.5 million, as high-risk and 1.5% of the population, about 700,000, would need intervention. However, our study suggested score ≥4 that identified 34% of the population as high-risk and 2% of the population would need intervention. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the ADA suggested threshold for identifying high-risk individuals for undiagnosed T2DM; however, a lower threshold is also recommended for higher sensitivity. The ADA screening tool could help the public health system for low-cost screening.

Sex-Specific Incidence Rates and Risk Factors for Hypertension During 13 Years of Follow-up: The Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

Background: Hypertension, with a prevalence of 25.6% is a serious public health concern in Iran. Objective: To investigate the population-based incidence of hypertension and its potential risk factors in Tehranian adults during a median follow-up of 13.1 years. Methods: A total of 6,533 non-hypertensive participants (women = 3,639), aged ≥20 years participated in the study. Crude and age-standardized incidence rates per 1000 person-years were calculated for each sex, separately. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all potential risk factors. Results: The crude and age-standardized incidence rates (95% CI) of hypertension per 1000 person-years were 29.7 (27.8-31.6) and 34.9 (32.5-37.4) among men and 25.8 (24.3-27.3) and 38.7 (35.5-42.0) among women, respectively. The incidence rate of hypertension in younger age groups was higher among men. However, after the 4th decade, the incidence rate was higher among women. Significant interactions of sex with age groups, body mass index categories, marital status, hypertriglyceridemia and glycemic categories were found in multivariable analyses (all p-values < 0.05). In the multivariable model, the risk in both sexes was found to be significantly associated with older age, obesity, and normal or high normal blood pressure (BP). Moreover, factors such as being overweight [HR: 1.20 (1.00-1.44)], former smoking [2.15 (1.52-3.04)], hypertriglyceridemia [1.23 (1.06-1.43)] and pre-diabetes status [1.19 (1.02-1.39)] were significant predictors of incident hypertension among women. Central obesity was found to be a significant predictor among men [1.26 (1.03-1.54)]. The optimism-corrected Harrell's C index (95% CI) in the categorical adjusted model was 0.75 (0.74-0.79) among men and 0.75 (0.74-0.76) among women. Conclusion: In the Tehranian population, nearly 2.7% of total participants (3% of men and 2.6% of women) develop hypertension each year. Obesity and high BP levels are the main modifiable risk factors in both sexes. Hypertriglyceridemia, prediabetes and former smoking are risk factors for hypertension among women.

Non-invasive Risk Prediction Models in Identifying Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes or Predicting Future Incident Cases in the Iranian Population.

BACKGROUND: Iran needs pragmatic screening methods for identifying those with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes or at high risk of developing it. The aim of this study was to assess performance of three non-invasive risk prediction models, i.e. the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), the Australian Type 2 Diabetes Risk Assessment Tool (AUSDRISK), and the American Diabetes Association Risk Score (ADA), for identifying those with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes (prevalent type 2 diabetes at baseline without any treatment) or those who would develop type 2 diabetes within 5 years of follow-up. METHODS: 3467 participants aged ≥30 years without treated type 2 diabetes in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) were included in this study. The discrimination power of models was assessed by area under the curve (AUC), their calibrations were assessed by calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and their net benefits were assessed by decision curves. RESULTS: 430 participants had undiagnosed type 2 diabetes at baseline and 203 developed type 2 diabetes during 5 years of followup. AUSDRISK had the highest AUC (0.77) as compared to FINDRISC (0.75; P value: 0.014), and the ADA model (0.73; P value: <0.001). The original model for AUSDRISK and calibrated versions of FINDRISC and ADA models had acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square <20) and these models were clinically useful in a wide range of risk thresholds as their net benefit was higher than no-screening scenarios. CONCLUSION: The original AUSDRISK model and recalibrated models for FINDRISC and ADA are valid and effective tools for identifying those with undiagnosed or 5-year incident type 2 diabetes in Iran.

Long-Term Effectiveness of a Lifestyle Intervention: A Pragmatic Community Trial to Prevent Metabolic Syndrome.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of a community-based lifestyle education on primary prevention of metabolic syndrome in a middle-income country. STUDY DESIGN: This study followed 3,180 individuals free of metabolic syndrome who were under the coverage of three health centers in Tehran from 1999 until 2015. They were undergoing triennial examinations resulting in four re-exams. People in one of three areas received interventions consisting of family-, school-, and community-based educational programs, including a face-to-face educational session at baseline. Data were analyzed considering the incidence of metabolic syndrome at each re-exam and also repeated-measure analysis including all re-exams together. Weighting was considered to correct selection bias because of loss to follow-up. Data were analyzed in 2017. RESULTS: After 3 years, 149 of 852 participants in the intervention and 471 of 2,328 people in control area developed metabolic syndrome at first re-exam resulting in a RR of 0.78 (95% CI=0.67, 0.92). The difference between groups remained unchanged up to the 6-year follow-up (RR=0.79, 95% CI=0.66, 0.93, at second re-exam), but disappeared during the third and fourth re-exams (RR=1.04, 95% CI=0.91, 1.18 and RR=1.03, 95% CI=0.91, 1.16, respectively). Marginal models for longitudinal data showed a significant interaction between intervention and time of re-exams. Further analyses showed that the effect of the intervention might have been rooted in improvement of lipid profile and glucose level. CONCLUSIONS: In a middle-income country, face-to-face educational sessions followed by a long-term maintenance community-level educational program could reduce the risk of metabolic syndrome for up to 6 years. A booster face-to-face session is recommended to retain this preventive effect. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered at Iran Registry for Clinical Trials (http://irct.ir) IRCT138705301058N1.

World Bank Income Group, Health Expenditure or Cardiometabolic Risk Factors? A Further Explanation of the Wide Gap in Cardiometabolic Mortality Between Worldwide Countries: An Ecological Study.

BACKGROUND: For addressing the burden of non-communicable diseases and policymaking, the world health organization uses World Bank income group to classify countries. This calcification method might not be optimal. This study aimed to investigate the role of World Bank income group, health expenditure, and cardiometabolic risk factors of countries in explaining the gap between their cardiometabolic mortality. METHODS: In total, 190 countries were categorized into four income groups according to the World Bank definition. The energy consumption, health expenditure, and data of sex-specified age-standardized prevalence of obesity, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, and physical inactivity in 2008 and cardiometabolic mortality in 2012 were used. Multivariable-adjusted mixed-effect linear regression models were applied to relate country-level predictors to their mortality outcomes. RESULTS: While the lowest cardiometabolic mortality was recorded in high-income countries in both genders, the highest rates were recorded in the low-income category for women and in low and middle-income for men. Countries had lower cardiometabolic mortality for women compared to men; however, such a difference was not shown in low-income countries. World Bank income group of countries, per se, explained one-third of the variation in their mortality outcomes while adding health expenditure, energy consumption, and cardiometabolic risk factors increased the explanatory power of the model considerably. Moreover, the more the health expenditure, the weaker the association of prevalence of hypertension with cardiometabolic mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Adding countries' health expenditure and/or the prevalence of risk factors to their World Bank income group may contribute to the better explanation of the gap between them in cardiometabolic mortality.

Blood pressure components and incident cardiovascular disease and mortality events among Iranian adults with chronic kidney disease during over a decade long follow-up: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To explore the association between systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP respectively) and pulse pressure (PP) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality events among Iranian patients with prevalent CKD. METHODS: Patients [n = 1448, mean age: 60.9 (9.9) years] defined as those with estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, were followed from 31 January 1999 to 20 March 2014. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were applied to examine the associations between different components of BP with outcomes. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 13.9 years, 305 all-cause mortality and 317 (100 fatal) CVD events (among those free from CVD, n = 1232) occurred. For CVD and CV-mortality, SBP and PP showed a linear relationship, while a U-shaped relationship for DBP was observed with all outcomes. Considering 120 ≤ SBP < 130 as reference, SBP ≥ 140 mmHg was associated with the highest hazard ratio (HR) for CVD [1.68 (1.2-2.34)], all-cause [1.72 (1.19-2.48)], and CV-mortality events [2.21 (1.16-4.22)]. Regarding DBP, compared with 80 ≤ DBP < 85 as reference, the level of ≥ 85 mmHg increased risk of CVD and all-cause mortality events; furthermore, DBP < 80 mmHg was associated with significant HR for CVD events [1.55 (1.08-2.24)], all-cause [1.68 (1.13-2.5)] and CV-mortality events [3.0 (1.17-7.7)]. Considering PP, the highest HR was seen in participants in the 4th quartile for all outcomes of interest; HRs for CVD events [1.92 (1.33-2.78)], all-cause [1.71 (1.11-2.63)] and CV-mortality events [2.22 (1.06-4.64)]. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CKD, the lowest risk of all-cause and CV-mortality as well as incident CVD was observed in those with SBP < 140, 80 ≤ DBP < 85 and PP < 64 mmHg.

Determining the Factors Associated with Cardiovascular Disease Recurrence: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

Background: Several studies have emphasized the importance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. However, there is a dearth of data on the prevention of cardiovascular disease recurrence. The present study was the 1st in Iran to evaluate factors associated with CVD recurrence. Methods: This prospective cohort study was conducted on 483 subjects (> 30 years old) with a history of CVD who participated in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study and were followed up for 12 years (1999-2012). The relationships between the most important established risk factors for CVD and CVD recurrence were evaluated. Results: Totally, 258 (53.4%) men and 225(46.5%) women at a mean age of 59.2 ± 10.7 years were recruited in the study. Our results showed that over the 12-year follow-up, the incidence of a recurrent event (per 100 person-years) was 48.5. Further, after controlling the possible confounding factors, the following variables had a significant relationship with CVD recurrence: age (HR = 1.02; p value = 0. 001), male sex (HR = 1.4; p value = 0.012), smoking (HR = 1.7; p value = 0.004), and increased fasting blood sugar (HR = 2.1; p value = 0.001). Conclusion: We found that the established variables in the development of CVD (i.e., age, sex, and smoking) played an important role in the risk of CVD recurrence.

Divergent pathway of lipid profile components for cardiovascular disease and mortality events: Results of over a decade follow-up among Iranian population.

BACKGROUND: Data regarding the impact of different lipid measures on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and mortality events is not consistent. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between different lipid parameters and incident CVD and mortality events in an Iranian population over a median follow-up of 11.9 years. METHODS: The study was conducted on 2532 men and 2986 women aged ≥ 40 years. Multivariate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), using age as time scale, were calculated for every 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in total cholesterol (TC), logarithm-transformed triglycerides (ln-TGs), low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), non-HDL-C, TC/HDL-C and ln-TGs/HDL-C. Covariates included gender (female as reference), body mass index, education status, low physical activity, smoking, blood pressure status (normotension, prehypertension and hypertension), glucose tolerance status (normal glucose tolerance, prediabetes and diabetes) and lipid lowering drugs. The same analyses were also repeated for tertiles of all lipid measures. Considering the absence of interaction between gender and lipid parameters, we used a sex-adjusted analysis. For analyses of mortality events, prevalent CVD was adjusted as well (All p for interactions > 0.1). RESULTS: A total of 789 new CVD events, 279 cardiovascular (CV) and 270 non-CV deaths occurred. In multivariate analysis, all lipid measures except HDL-C showed significant risk for new CVD events with HRs ranged from 1.14 to 1.27 for ln-TGs/HDL-C and LDL-C, respectively (all p-values ≤ 0.001). Considering CV mortality, there were significant positive associations between TC, LDL-C, non-HDL-C, TC/HDL-C and CV mortality events in sex-adjusted analysis; however after multivariate analysis, these associations attenuated and reached to null. Applying lipid measures as categorical variables, only TC displayed a positive association with CV mortality in multivariate analysis [TC ≥ 6.14 mmol/L: HR 1.43 (1.04-1.98)]. In multivariate analysis, there were negative significant associations between all lipid measures except HDL-C and non-CV mortality; every 1-SD increase in TC, LDL-C, non-HDL-C, ln-TGs ,TC/HDL-C and ln-TGs/HDL-C was associated with 24, 25, 27, 19, 23 and 17 % decreased risk in non-CV mortality (all p-values ≤ 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate divergent associations of TC, LDL-C, non-HDL-C, TC/HDL-C, TGs and TGs/HDL-C with CVD vs non-CV mortality, demonstrating a higher risk for the former and lower risk for the latter.

Comparison of stool antigen test with gastric biopsy for the detection of Helicobacter Pylori infection.

OBJECTIVE: Helicobacter Pylori (H.pylori) is one of the most important causes of dyspepsia and diagnosis can be made by invasive or non-invasive methods. One of the non-invasive methods, H.pylori stool antigen test (HpSA) is simple, fast and relatively inexpensive. According to this view with regard to gastric biopsy as a gold standard the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of this method were calculated. METHODOLOGY: Stool samples of 61 patients who underwent upper endoscopy and gastric biopsy due to dyspepsia were evaluated for H. Pylori stool antigen using sandwich ELISA method. RESULTS: From the 61 patients who participated in this study, H.pylori was diagnosed in 38 (62.3%) gastric biopsies, 25(66%) of these had positive HpSA test. Also, of 27 (37.7%) positive HpSA cases, H.pylori was seen in 25 gastric biopsies. For this method, sensitivity of 66% with 93% positive predictive value was calculated. Also, 91% specificity with 62% negative predictive value was estimated. CONCLUSION: High positive HpSA indicates high risk of H.pylori infection and high specificity shows that the likelihood of false positive is low. Therefore, physicians can trust on this method and start patient`s treatment.