Performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED in predicting stroke and bleeding in atrial fibrillation and cancer.

Aims: To compare the predictive performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with and without cancer. Methods and results: Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England, we performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with new diagnoses of AF from 2009 to 2019. Cancer was defined as history of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, or haematological cancer. We calculated the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores for the 1-year risk of stroke and major bleeding events. Scores performance was estimated by discrimination [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)] and calibration plots. Of 141 796 patients with AF, 10.3% had cancer. The CHA2DS2-VASc score had good to modest discrimination in prostate cancer AUC = 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.71, 0.77), haematological cancer AUC = 0.71 (0.66, 0.76), colorectal cancer AUC = 0.70 (0.66, 0.75), breast cancer AUC = 0.70 (0.66, 0.74), and lung cancer AUC = 0.69 (0.60, 0.79), compared with no-cancer AUC = 0.73 (0.72, 0.74). HAS-BLED discrimination was poor in prostate cancer AUC = 0.58 (0.55, 0.61), haematological cancer AUC = 0.59 (0.55, 0.64), colorectal cancer AUC = 0.57 (0.53, 0.61), breast cancer AUC = 0.56 (0.52, 0.61), and lung cancer AUC = 0.59 (0.51, 0.67), compared with no-cancer AUC = 0.61 (0.60, 0.62). Both the CHA2DS2-VASc score and HAS-BLED score were well calibrated across all study cohorts. Conclusion: Amongst certain cancer cohorts in the AF population, CHA2DS2-VASc performs similarly in predicting stroke to AF patients without cancer. Our findings highlight the importance of cancer diagnosis during the development of risk scores and opportunities to optimize the HAS-BLED risk score to better serve cancer patients with AF.

Protocol for the development and validation of a Polypharmacy Assessment Score.

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of people are using multiple medications each day, named polypharmacy. This is driven by an ageing population, increasing multimorbidity, and single disease-focussed guidelines. Medications carry obvious benefits, yet polypharmacy is also linked to adverse consequences including adverse drug events, drug-drug and drug-disease interactions, poor patient experience and wasted resources. Problematic polypharmacy is 'the prescribing of multiple medicines inappropriately, or where the intended benefits are not realised'. Identifying people with problematic polypharmacy is complex, as multiple medicines can be suitable for people with several chronic conditions requiring more treatment. Hence, polypharmacy is often potentially problematic, rather than always inappropriate, dependent on clinical context and individual benefit vs risk. There is a need to improve how we identify and evaluate these patients by extending beyond simple counts of medicines to include individual factors and long-term conditions. AIM: To produce a Polypharmacy Assessment Score to identify a population with unusual levels of prescribing who may be at risk of potentially problematic polypharmacy. METHODS: Analyses will be performed in three parts: 1. A prediction model will be constructed using observed medications count as the dependent variable, with age, gender and long-term conditions as independent variables. A 'Polypharmacy Assessment Score' will then be constructed through calculating the differences between the observed and expected count of prescribed medications, thereby highlighting people that have unexpected levels of prescribing. Parts 2 and 3 will examine different aspects of validity of the Polypharmacy Assessment Score: 2. To assess 'construct validity', cross-sectional analyses will evaluate high-risk prescribing within populations defined by a range of Polypharmacy Assessment Scores, using both explicit (STOPP/START criteria) and implicit (Medication Appropriateness Index) measures of inappropriate prescribing. 3. To assess 'predictive validity', a retrospective cohort study will explore differences in clinical outcomes (adverse drug reactions, unplanned hospitalisation and all-cause mortality) between differing scores. DISCUSSION: Developing a cross-cutting measure of polypharmacy may allow healthcare professionals to prioritise and risk stratify patients with polypharmacy using unusual levels of prescribing. This would be an improvement from current approaches of either using simple cutoffs or narrow prescribing criteria.

Decoding behaviour change techniques in opioid deprescribing strategies following major surgery: a systematic review of interventions to reduce postoperative opioid use.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: METHODS: A structured search strategy encompassing databases including MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL Plus, PsycINFO and Cochrane Library was implemented from inception to October 2023. Included studies focused on interventions targeting opioid reduction in adults following major surgeries. The risk of bias was evaluated using Cochrane risk-of-bias tool V.2 (RoB 2) and non-randomised studies of interventions (ROBINS-I) tools, and Cohen's d effect sizes were calculated. BCTs were identified using a validated taxonomy. RESULTS: 22 studies, comprising 7 clinical trials and 15 cohort studies, were included, with varying risks of bias. Educational (n=12), guideline-focused (n=3), multifaceted (n=5) and pharmacist-led (n=2) interventions demonstrated diverse effect sizes (small-medium n=10, large n=12). A total of 23 unique BCTs were identified across studies, occurring 140 times. No significant association was observed between the number of BCTs and effect size, and interventions with large effect sizes predominantly targeted healthcare professionals. Key BCTs in interventions with the largest effect sizes included behaviour instructions, behaviour substitution, goal setting (outcome), social support (practical), social support (unspecified), pharmacological support, prompts/cues, feedback on behaviour, environmental modification, graded tasks, outcome goal review, health consequences information, action planning, social comparison, credible source, outcome feedback and social reward. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the dominant BCTs in highly effective interventions provides valuable insights for future opioid tapering strategy implementations. Further research and validation are necessary to establish associations between BCTs and effectiveness, considering additional influencing factors. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022290060.

Tree-Based Machine Learning to Identify Predictors of Psoriasis Incidence at the Neighborhood Level: A Populational Study from Quebec, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a major global health burden affecting ~ 60 million people worldwide. Existing studies on psoriasis focused on individual-level health behaviors (e.g. diet, alcohol consumption, smoking, exercise) and characteristics as drivers of psoriasis risk. However, it is increasingly recognized that health behavior arises in the context of larger social, cultural, economic and environmental determinants of health. We aimed to identify the top risk factors that significantly impact the incidence of psoriasis at the neighborhood level using populational data from the province of Quebec (Canada) and advanced tree-based machine learning (ML) techniques. METHODS: Adult psoriasis patients were identified using International Classification of Disease (ICD)-9/10 codes from Quebec (Canada) populational databases for years 1997-2015. Data on environmental and socioeconomic factors 1 year prior to psoriasis onset were obtained from the Canadian Urban Environment Health Consortium (CANUE) and Statistics Canada (StatCan) and were input as predictors into the gradient boosting ML. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). Parsimonious models and partial dependence plots were determined to assess directionality of the relationship. RESULTS: The incidence of psoriasis varied geographically from 1.6 to 325.6/100,000 person-years in Quebec. The parsimonious model (top 9 predictors) had an AUC of 0.77 to predict high psoriasis incidence. Amongst top predictors, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, maximum daily temperature, proportion of females, soil moisture, urbanization, and distance to expressways had a negative association with psoriasis incidence. Nighttime light brightness had a positive association, whereas social and material deprivation indices suggested a higher psoriasis incidence in the middle socioeconomic class neighborhoods. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to highlight highly variable psoriasis incidence rates on a jurisdictional level and suggests that living environment, notably climate, vegetation, urbanization and neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics may have an association with psoriasis incidence.

Survival Outcomes in Older Women with Oestrogen-Receptor-Positive Early-Stage Breast Cancer: Primary Endocrine Therapy vs. Surgery by Comorbidity and Frailty Levels.

Primary endocrine therapy (PET) offers non-surgical treatment for older women with early-stage breast cancer who are unsuitable for surgery due to frailty or comorbidity. This research assessed all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality of PET vs. surgery in older women (≥70 years) with oestrogen-receptor-positive early-stage breast cancer by frailty and comorbidity levels. This study used UK secondary data to analyse older female patients from 2000 to 2016. Patients were censored until 31 May 2019 and grouped by the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and hospital frailty risk score (HFRS). Cox regression models compared all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality between PET and surgery within each group, adjusting for patient preferences and covariates. Sensitivity analyses accounted for competing risks. There were 23,109 patients included. The hazard ratio (HR) comparing PET to surgery for overall survival decreased significantly from 2.1 (95%CI: 2.0, 2.2) to 1.2 (95%CI: 1.1, 1.5) with increasing HFRS and from 2.1 (95%CI: 2.0, 2.2) to 1.4 (95%CI 1.2, 1.7) with rising CCI. However, there was no difference in BCSM for frail older women (HR: 1.2; 0.9, 1.9). There were no differences in competing risk profiles between other causes of death and breast cancer-specific mortality with PET versus surgery, with a subdistribution hazard ratio of 1.1 (0.9, 1.4) for high-level HFRS (p = 0.261) and CCI (p = 0.093). Given limited survival gains from surgery for older patients, PET shows potential as an effective option for frail older women with early-stage breast cancer. Despite surgery outperforming PET, surgery loses its edge as frailty increases, with negligible differences in the very frail.

Development of prescribing indicators related to opioid-related harm in patients with chronic pain in primary care-a modified e-Delphi study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term opioid use is associated with dependency, addiction, and serious adverse events. Although a framework to reduce inappropriate opioid prescribing exists, there is no consensus on prescribing indicators for preventable opioid-related problems in patients with chronic pain in primary care in the UK. This study aimed to identify opioid prescription scenarios for developing indicators for prescribing opioids to patients with chronic pain in primary care. METHODS: Scenarios of opioid prescribing indicators were identified from a literature review, guidelines, and government reports. Twenty-one indicators were identified and presented in various opioid scenarios concerning opioid-related harm and adverse effects, drug-drug interactions, and drug-disease interactions in certain disease conditions. After receiving ethics approval, two rounds of electronic Delphi panel technique surveys were conducted with 24 expert panellists from the UK (clinicians, pharmacists, and independent prescribers) from August 2020 to February 2021. Each indicator was rated on a 1-9 scale from inappropriate to appropriate. The score's median, 30th and 70th percentiles, and disagreement index were calculated. RESULTS: The panel unanimously agreed that 15 out of the 21 opioid prescribing scenarios were inappropriate, primarily due to their potential for causing harm to patients. This consensus was reflected in the low appropriateness scores (median ranging from 1 to 3). There were no scenarios with a high consensus that prescribing was appropriate. The indicators were considered inappropriate due to drug-disease interactions (n = 8), drug-drug interactions (n = 2), adverse effects (n = 3), and prescribed dose and duration (n = 2). Examples included prescribing opioids during pregnancy, concurrently with benzodiazepines, long-term without a laxative prescription and prescribing > 120-mg morphine milligram equivalent per day or long-term duration over 3 months after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The high agreement on opioid prescribing indicators indicates that these potentially hazardous consequences are relevant and concerning to healthcare practitioners. Future research is needed to evaluate the feasibility and implementation of these indicators within primary care settings. This research will provide valuable insights and evidence to support opioid prescribing and deprescribing strategies. Moreover, the findings will be crucial in informing primary care practitioners and shaping quality outcome frameworks and other initiatives to enhance the safety and quality of care in primary care settings.

Adverse drug reactions and hospital admissions: Large case-control study of patients aged 65-100 years using linked English primary care and hospital data.

BACKGROUND: Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are common and a leading cause of injury. However, information on ADR risks of individual medicines is often limited. The aim of this hypothesis-generating study was to assess the relative importance of ADR-related and emergency hospital admission for large group of medication classes. METHODS: This study was a propensity-matched case-control study in English primary care. Data sources were Clinical Practice Research Databank and Aurum with longitudinal, anonymized, patient level electronic health records (EHRs) from English general practices linked to hospital records. Cases aged 65-100 with ADR-related or emergency hospital admission were matched to up to six controls by age, sex, morbidity and propensity scores for hospital admission risk. Medication groups with systemic administration as listed in the British National Formulary (used by prescribers for medication advice). Prescribing in the 84 days before the index date was assessed. Only medication groups with 50+ cases exposed were analysed. The outcomes of interest were ADR-related and emergency hospital admissions. Conditional logistic regression estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The overall population included 121 546 cases with an ADR-related and 849 769 cases with emergency hospital admission. The percentage of hospitalizations with an ADR-related code for admission diagnosis was 1.83% and 6.58% with an ADR-related code at any time during hospitalization. A total of 137 medication groups was included in the main ADR analyses. Of these, 13 (9.5%) had statistically non-significant adjusted ORs, 58 (42.3%) statistically significant ORs between 1.0 and 1.5, 37 (27.0%) between 1.5-2.0, 18 (13.1%) between 2.0-3.0 and 11 (8.0%) 3.0 or higher. Several classes of antibiotics (including penicillins) were among medicines with largest ORs. Evaluating the 14 medications most often associated with ADRs, a strong association was found between the number of these medicines and the risk of ADR-related hospital admission (adjusted OR of 7.53 (95% CI 7.15-7.93) for those exposed to 6+ of these medicines). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: There is a need for a regular systematic assessment of the harm-benefit ratio of medicines, harvesting the information in large healthcare databases and combining it with causality assessment of individual case histories.

Risk factors associated with the development of chronic suppurative otitis media in children: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM) is defined as persistent discharge through a tympanic membrane perforation for greater than 2 weeks. It is associated with a significant disease burden, including hearing loss, and reducing its incidence could significantly improve short- and long-term health. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with the development of CSOM in children. DESIGN AND SETTING: Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies set in community, primary and secondary care settings, identified from Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases from 2000 to 2022. PARTICIPANTS: Children 16 years old and below. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical diagnosis of CSOM. RESULTS: In total, 739 papers were screened, with 12 deemed eligible for inclusion in the systematic review, of which, 10 were included in the meta-analysis. Risk factors examined included perinatal, patient, dietary, environmental and parental factors. Meta-analysis results indicate that atopy (RR = 1.18, 95% CI [1.01-1.37], p = .04, 2 studies); and birth weight <2500 g (RR = 1.79 [1.27-2.50], p < .01, 2 studies) are associated with an increased risk of CSOM development. Factors not associated were male sex (RR = 0.96 [0.82-1.13], p = .62, 8 studies); exposure to passive smoking (RR = 1.27 [0.81-2.01], p = .30, 3 studies); and parental history of otitis media (RR = 1.14 [0.59-2.20], p = .69, 2 studies). CONCLUSION: Optimal management of risk factors associated with CSOM development will help reduce the burden of disease and prevent disease progression or recurrence. The current quality of evidence in the literature is variable and heterogeneous. Future studies should aim to use standardised classification systems to define risk factors to allow meta-analysis.

Outcome measures for use in trials of paediatric otorrhoea: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Paediatric otorrhoea (PO) describes a middle ear infection that results in a perforation of the tympanic membrane and ear discharge, in children and young people (CYP). Prolonged infection may be associated with hearing loss and developmental delay. The current management of paediatric otorrhoea is variable, including non-invasive treatments (conservative, oral antibiotics, topical antibiotics) and surgery, reflecting the lack of a sufficiently strong evidence base. Outcome reporting is fundamental to producing reliable and meaningful evidence to inform best practice. OBJECTIVES: Primary objective: to determine which outcome measures are currently used to evaluate treatment success in studies of non-surgical treatments for paediatric otorrhoea. SECONDARY OBJECTIVES: to identify outcome measurement instruments used in the literature and assess their applicability for use in clinical trials of PO. METHODS: This systematic review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023407976). Database searches of EMBASE, MEDLINE and Cochrane was performed on June 6, 2023, covering from Jan 1995 to May 2023. Randomised controlled trials or study protocols involving CYP with PO were included following PRISMA guidelines. Risk of bias was assessed with Cochrane's tool. RESULTS: Of the 377 papers identified, six were included in the systematic review. The primary outcome of five of the studies related to otorrhoea cessation; both time to cessation and proportion recovered at various time points were used as measures. Two measurement instruments were identified: Otitis Media-6 Questionnaire and the Institute for Medical Technology Assessment Productivity Cost Questionnaire. Both were shown to be applicable measurement instruments when used in clinical trials of PO. CONCLUSIONS: To promote homogeneity and facilitate meaningful comparison and combination of studies, we propose that time to cessation of otorrhoea from onset of otorrhoea should be used as the primary outcome in future studies. Further research is needed to establish if this is the most important outcome to children and their caregivers.

Oral anticoagulant prescribing among patients with cancer and atrial fibrillation in England, 2009-2019.

BACKGROUND: Anticoagulation of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and cancer is challenging because of their high risk for stroke and bleeding. Little is known of the variations of oral anticoagulant (OAC) prescribing in patients with AF with and without cancer. METHODS: Patients with first-time AF during 2009-2019 from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink were included. Cancer diagnosis was defined as a history of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, or hematological cancer. Competing-risk analysis was used to assess the risk of OAC prescribing in patients with AF and cancer adjusted for clinical and sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: Of 177,065 patients with AF, 11.7% had cancer. Compared to patients without cancer, patients with cancer were less likely to receive OAC: prostate cancer (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99), breast cancer (SHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.98), colorectal cancer (SHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99), hematological cancer (SHR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.65-0.75), and lung cancer (SHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.38-0.50). The cumulative incidence function (CIF) of OAC prescribing was lowest for patients with lung cancer and hematological cancer compared with patients without cancer. The difference between the CIF of OAC prescribing in patients with and without cancer becomes narrower in the most deprived areas. Elderly patients (aged ≥85 years) overall had the lowest CIF of OAC prescribing regardless of cancer status. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF, underprescribing of OAC is independently associated with certain cancer types. Patients with hematological and lung cancer are the least likely to receive anticoagulation therapy compared with patients without cancer. Underprescribing of OAC in cancer is linked to old age. Further studies of patients with AF and cancer are warranted to assess the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation in certain cancer types.

Comorbidity clusters and in-hospital outcomes in patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction in the USA: A national population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of multimorbidity in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is increasing. It is unclear whether comorbidities cluster into distinct phenogroups and whether are associated with clinical trajectories. METHODS: Survey-weighted analysis of the United States Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) for patients admitted with a primary diagnosis of AMI in 2018. In-hospital outcomes included mortality, stroke, bleeding, and coronary revascularisation. Latent class analysis of 21 chronic conditions was used to identify comorbidity classes. Multivariable logistic and linear regressions were fitted for associations between comorbidity classes and outcomes. RESULTS: Among 416,655 AMI admissions included in the analysis, mean (±SD) age was 67 (±13) years, 38% were females, and 76% White ethnicity. Overall, hypertension, coronary heart disease (CHD), dyslipidaemia, and diabetes were common comorbidities, but each of the identified five classes (C) included ≥1 predominant comorbidities defining distinct phenogroups: cancer/coagulopathy/liver disease class (C1); least burdened (C2); CHD/dyslipidaemia (largest/referent group, (C3)); pulmonary/valvular/peripheral vascular disease (C4); diabetes/kidney disease/heart failure class (C5). Odds ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) for mortality ranged between 2.11 (1.89-2.37) in C2 to 5.57 (4.99-6.21) in C1. For major bleeding, OR for C1 was 4.48 (3.78; 5.31); for acute stroke, ORs ranged between 0.75 (0.60; 0.94) in C2 to 2.76 (2.27; 3.35) in C1; for coronary revascularization, ORs ranged between 0.34 (0.32; 0.36) in C1 to 1.41 (1.30; 1.53) in C4. CONCLUSIONS: We identified distinct comorbidity phenogroups that predicted in-hospital outcomes in patients admitted with AMI. Some conditions overlapped across classes, driven by the high comorbidity burden. Our findings demonstrate the predictive value and potential clinical utility of identifying patients with AMI with specific comorbidity clustering.

Maternal mental illness and child atopy: a UK population-based, primary care cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The number of children exposed to maternal mental illness is rapidly increasing and little is known about the effects of maternal mental illness on childhood atopy. AIM: To investigate the association between maternal mental illness and risk of atopy among offspring. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort study using a UK primary care database (674 general practices). METHOD: In total, 590 778 children (born 1 January 1993 to 30 November 2017) were followed until their 18th birthday, with 359 611 linked to their hospital records. Time-varying exposure was captured for common (depression and anxiety), serious (psychosis), addiction (alcohol and substance misuse), and other (eating and personality disorder) maternal mental illness from 6 months before pregnancy. Using Cox regression models, incidence rates of atopy were calculated and compared for the exposed and unexposed children in primary (asthma, eczema, allergic rhinitis, and food allergies) and secondary (asthma and food allergies) care, adjusted for maternal (age, atopy history, smoking, and antibiotic use), child (sex, ethnicity, and birth year/season), and area covariates (deprivation and region). RESULTS: Children exposed to common maternal mental illness were at highest risk of developing asthma (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 1.20) and allergic rhinitis (aHR 1.17, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.21), as well as a hospital admission for asthma (aHR 1.29, 95% CI = 1.20 to 1.38). Children exposed to addiction disorders were 9% less likely to develop eczema (aHR 0.91, 95% CI = 0.85 to 0.97) and 35% less likely to develop food allergies (aHR 0.65, 95% CI = 0.45 to 0.93). CONCLUSION: The finding that risk of atopy varies by type of maternal mental illness prompts important aetiological questions. The link between common mental illness and childhood atopy requires GPs and policymakers to act and support vulnerable women to access preventive (for example, smoking cessation) services earlier.

Longitudinal Trajectory of Opioid Prescribing and its Associated Serious Adverse Events: A Population-Wide Cohort Study in Taiwan.

Chronic opioid prescribing (COP) for noncancer pain is highly restricted in Taiwan, but tramadol is not listed in the regulation on chronic prescribing. This study investigated the trajectories of COP in noncancer pain when considering tramadol in Taiwan and identified the risk of serious adverse events. This population-wide longitudinal cohort study used the Taiwan National Health Insurance claims records from 2001 to 2016. Adults prescribed opioids (including tramadol) and without cancer were selected. Patients who received COP (opioid supply days for 28 days or continuous opioid supply for 14 days) in the first patient quarter were included, and serious adverse events were identified. Group-based trajectory models were applied to identify patients with a similar trajectory of quarterly COP. The Cox proportional hazard model was applied to assess the association between adverse events and patients' trajectories. Of the 2,360,358 noncancer opioid users, 476,934 (20.2%) received COP in the first quarter. Four groups of COP trajectory were identified, and 59,310 (12.8%) patients received COP quarterly over 2 years. Patients categorized into the trajectory of long-term COP had a significantly higher crude incidence rate of cardiovascular death, seizure, and hypoglycemia. Still, there is no newly developed opioid use disorder. There was a substantial underestimate in COP in Taiwan when tramadol was not considered. Notably, 10% of them could receive COP for over 2 years. The result raises concern about unmet pain management needs and the limited accessibility of alternative treatments for noncancer pain.

Common Cancer Types and Risk of Stroke and Bleeding in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Study in England.

BACKGROUND: The association between cancer and stroke or bleeding outcomes in atrial fibrillation is unclear. We sought to examine how certain types of cancer influence the balance between stroke and bleeding risk in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We estimated stroke and bleeding risk among adult patients with NVAF and certain types of cancer (breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, and hematological cancer) from 2009 to 2019 based on data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD and Aurum databases. The control group included patients with NVAF only. Of 177 065 patients with NVAF, 11379 (6.4%) had cancer (1691 breast, 3955 prostate, 1666 colorectal, 2491 hematological, and 1576 lung). Compared with patients without cancer, stroke risk was higher in patients with breast cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.07-1.35) and with prostate cancer (aHR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.01-1.12) if diagnosed within 6 months before NVAF. The risk of bleeding was increased in subjects with hematological cancer (aHR, 1.55 [95% CI, 1.40-1.71]), lung cancer (aHR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.25, 1.77]), prostate cancer (aHR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.28-1.49]), and colorectal cancer (aHR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.21-1.53]), but not for subjects with breast cancer. The more recent the cancer diagnosis before NVAF diagnosis (within 6 months), the higher the risk of bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Breast and prostate cancer are associated with increased stroke risk, whereas in some cancer types, the risk of bleeding seemed to exceed stroke risk. In these patients, prescribing of oral anticoagulant should be carefully evaluated to balance bleeding and stroke risk.

The Impact of Oral Antibiotics Prior to Cancer Diagnosis on Overall Patient Survival: Findings from an English Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence in humans as to whether antibiotics impact the effectiveness of cancer treatments. Rodent studies have shown that disruption in gut microbiota due to antibiotics decreases cancer therapy effectiveness. We evaluated the associations between the antibiotic treatment of different time periods before cancer diagnoses and long-term mortality. METHODS: Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, linked to the Cancer Registry's and the Office for National Statistics' mortality records, we delineated a study cohort that involved cancer patients who were prescribed antibiotics 0-3 months; 3-24 months; or more than 24 months before cancer diagnosis. Patients' exposure to antibiotics was compared according to the recency of prescriptions and time-to-event (all-cause mortality) by applying Cox models. RESULTS: 111,260 cancer patients from England were included in the analysis. Compared with antibiotic prescriptions that were issued in the past, patients who had been prescribed antibiotics shortly before cancer diagnosis presented an increased hazard ratio (HR) for mortality. For leukaemia, the HR in the Cancer Registry was 1.32 (95% CI 1.16-1.51), for lymphoma it was 1.22 (1.08-1.36), for melanoma it was 1.28 (1.10-1.49), and for myeloma it was 1.19 (1.04-1.36). Increased HRs were observed for cancer of the uterus, bladder, and breast and ovarian and colorectal cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotics that had been issued within the three months prior to cancer diagnosis may reduce the effectiveness of chemotherapy and immunotherapy. Judicious antibiotic prescribing is needed among cancer patients.

Cross-cultural adaptation of the PROFFIT Instrument to measure financial toxicity in people living with cancer within a UK population.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop a British version of the Patient Reported Outcomes for Fighting Financial Toxicity of Cancer (PROFFIT): originally designed to measure financial toxicity in cancer for an Italian universal healthcare system. The instrument was carefully evaluated for crosscultural equivalence, face validity and practicality. METHODS: A systematic approach to cross-cultural adaptation was used, including forward translation, synthesis, backward translation, consolidation of translations with an expert committee, and cognitive interviews. As part of the cognitive interview process, 18 cancer patients completed a structured interview of 60-90 min in length. RESULTS: The translated and modified PROFFIT questionnaire demonstrated good psycho-linguistic properties, including high compliance (only one item was revised for clarity), high retrieval from memory, high decision-making processes, and high response processes. CONCLUSION: PROFFIT has been found to be functional and adaptable in a new social environment. The tool may be useful for tailoring interventions to address and measure financial hardships within the cancer population, which appear to be a current challenge for public health. POLICY SUMMARY: Even in universal healthcare systems, financial toxicity due to the increase in outof-pocket expenses poses a significant problem. The FT phenomenon warrants proper attention in the United Kingdom since it may negatively impact financial well-being, quality of life, psychosocial health, and treatment adherence.

Frequency and impact of medication reviews for people aged 65 years or above in UK primary care: an observational study using electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Medication reviews in primary care provide an opportunity to review and discuss the safety and appropriateness of a person's medicines. However, there is limited evidence about access to and the impact of routine medication reviews for older adults in the general population, particularly in the UK. We aimed to quantify the proportion of people aged 65 years and over with a medication review recorded in 2019 and describe changes in the numbers and types of medicines prescribed following a review. METHODS: We used anonymised primary care electronic health records from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD) to define a population of people aged 65 years or over in 2019. We counted people with a medication review record in 2019 and used Cox regression to estimate associations between demographic characteristics, diagnoses, and prescribed medicines and having a medication review. We used linear regression to compare the number of medicines prescribed as repeat prescriptions in the three months before and after a medication review. Specifically, we compared the 'prescription count' - the maximum number of different medicines with overlapping prescriptions people had in each period. RESULTS: Of 591,726 people prescribed one or more medicines at baseline, 305,526 (51.6%) had a recorded medication review in 2019. Living in a care home (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% confidence interval 1.40-1.62), medication review in the previous year (1.83, 1.69-1.98), and baseline prescription count (e.g. 5-9 vs 1 medicine 1.41, 1.37-1.46) were strongly associated with having a medication review in 2019. Overall, the prescription count tended to increase after a review (mean change 0.13 medicines, 95% CI 0.12-0.14). CONCLUSIONS: Although medication reviews were commonly recorded for people aged 65 years or over, there was little change overall in the numbers and types of medicines prescribed following a review. This study did not examine whether the prescriptions were appropriate or other metrics, such as dose or medicine changes within the same class. However, by examining the impact of medication reviews before the introduction of structured medication review requirements in England in 2020, it provides a useful benchmark which these new reviews can be compared with.

Combinations of medicines in patients with polypharmacy aged 65-100 in primary care: Large variability in risks of adverse drug related and emergency hospital admissions.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy can be a consequence of overprescribing that is prevalent in older adults with multimorbidity. Polypharmacy can cause adverse reactions and result in hospital admission. This study predicted risks of adverse drug reaction (ADR)-related and emergency hospital admissions by medicine classes. METHODS: We used electronic health record data from general practices of Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD) and Aurum. Older patients who received at least five medicines were included. Medicines were classified using the British National Formulary sections. Hospital admission cases were propensity-matched to controls by age, sex, and propensity for specific diseases. The matched data were used to develop and validate random forest (RF) models to predict the risk of ADR-related and emergency hospital admissions. Shapley Additive eXplanation (SHAP) values were calculated to explain the predictions. RESULTS: In total, 89,235 cases with polypharmacy and hospitalised with an ADR-related admission were matched to 443,497 controls. There were over 112,000 different combinations of the 50 medicine classes most implicated in ADR-related hospital admission in the RF models, with the most important medicine classes being loop diuretics, domperidone and/or metoclopramide, medicines for iron-deficiency anaemias and for hypoplastic/haemolytic/renal anaemias, and sulfonamides and/or trimethoprim. The RF models strongly predicted risks of ADR-related and emergency hospital admission. The observed Odds Ratio in the highest RF decile was 7.16 (95% CI 6.65-7.72) in the validation dataset. The C-statistics for ADR-related hospital admissions were 0.58 for age and sex and 0.66 for RF probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy involves a very large number of different combinations of medicines, with substantial differences in risks of ADR-related and emergency hospital admissions. Although the medicines may not be causally related to increased risks, RF model predictions may be useful in prioritising medication reviews. Simple tools based on few medicine classes may not be effective in identifying high risk patients.

The impact of frailty on patient-reported outcomes following hip and knee arthroplasty.

AIM: to determine the impact of frailty on patient-reported outcomes following hip and knee arthroplasty. METHODS: we used linked primary and secondary care electronic health records. Frailty was assessed using the electronic frailty index (categorised: fit, mild, moderate, severe frailty). We determined the association between frailty category and post-operative Oxford hip/knee score (OHS/OKS) using Tobit regression. We calculated the proportion of patients in each frailty category who achieved the minimally important change (MIC) in OHS (≥8 points) and OKS (≥7 points) and the proportion who reported a successful outcome (hip/knee problems either 'much better' or 'a little better' following surgery). RESULTS: About 42,512 people who had a hip arthroplasty and 49,208 who had a knee arthroplasty contributed data. In a Tobit model adjusted for pre-operative OHS/OKS, age, sex and quintile of index of multiple deprivation, increasing frailty was associated with decreasing post-operative OHS and OKS, respectively, ß-coefficient (95% CI) in severely frail versus fit, -6.97 (-7.44, -6.49) and - 5.88 (-6.28, -5.47). The proportion of people who achieved the MIC in OHS and OKS, respectively, decreased from 92 and 86% among fit individuals to 84 and 78% among those with severe frailty. Patient-reported success following hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively, decreased from 97 and 93% among fit individuals to 90 and 83% among those with severe frailty. CONCLUSION: frailty adversely impacts on patient-reported outcomes following hip and knee arthroplasty. However, even among those with severe frailty, the large majority achieved the MIC in OHS/OKS and reported a successful outcome.