Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee-Carter Model.

This paper analyzes and predicts age-sex mortality rates by causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The following methods of analysis were used: the Lee-Carter model, singular value decomposition, and ARIMA-modeling. The forecast results suggest that by 2025 the Republic of Bashkortostan will have lower mortality due to malignant neoplasms in all age groups, except for the 70+ group for women and 50+ age groups for men; lower mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system in all age groups for men and higher mortality in 45+ age groups for women; lower mortality due to injuries in all age groups for both sexes; no significant changes in mortality due to respiratory diseases; increased mortality from gastrointestinal diseases for both sexes at all ages, except for children; higher mortality due to infections at 20-54 for men and 20-64 for women; and almost half lower mortality from infections in the age group of 0-4 years for both sexes.

[EVALUATION OF THE AIR POLLUTION HEALTH RISK FOR THE POPULATION OF THE CITY OF UFA].

There are presented results of the calculation of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks due to the impact of chemical air pollutants for the human health of a large industrial city. Maximal levels of carcinogenic hazards under inhalation route of substances from the air were established to be noted on gasoline, manganese, sulfur dioxide, copper oxide, formaldehyde. In the formation of carcinogenic risk the greatest contribution is made by chromium, gasoline, formaldehyde, benzol. The risk of non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic effects for the population of the city continues to remain to be high, that requires the development and implementation of planned recreational measures.

[The morbidity of malignant neoplasms in industrial metropolis].

The territorial characteristics of malignant neoplasms propagation was analyzed to reveal the risk factors concerning the population oncological morbidity in the City of Ufa. The data of accounting reporting documentation of the Bashkir republican oncological dispenser from 2000 to 2008 was used for analysis. The study revealed that in males and females the level of morbidity of oncological neoplasms is higher as compared with indicator's national level and continues to increase steadily factually in all oncological forms of this pathology.

[The dynamics of morbidity and mortality of malignant neoplasms in population of the Republic of Bashkortostan].

The epidemiologic analysis of morbidity and mortality of malignant neoplasms of population of the Republic of Bashkortostan was made. The official oncological statistics of average long-term data of 2000-2008 was used. The trend of increase of oncological neoplasms morbidity was established both in males (up to 6.9%) and females (up to 12.3%) and slight decrease of mortality level (on 5.7%). The structure of oncological morbidity of male population has such focal localizations as lung, stomach, skin, prostate, rectum and colon. In oncological morbidity of women larger part has cancer of breast, skin (with melanoma), stomach, uterine body, cervix and ovaries. The increase of mortality indicators in 2000-2008 was noted concerning skin melanoma (32.4%), colon cancer (27.2%), prostate cancer (23.1%), leukemia (16.5%), breast cancer (13.6%) and rectum cancer (9.6%). The revealed characteristics of neoplasms morbidity and mortality on the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan are to be taken into account in the prospective planning of curative preventive activities and development of oncological care to this category of patients.

[The dynamics of the oncological mortality in the Republic of Bashkortostan].

The analysis of the dynamics of the oncological mortality in the Republic of Bashkortostan from 1989 to 2005 was carried out. It is revealed that since 1992 the oncological mortality occupies the third position in the structure of population morbidity (10.4-14%). The minor trend to the increase of this mortality rate from 142.1 to 149.8 per 100,000 of population is revealed. In the structure of the oncological mortality, the most percent falls on the tumors of trachea, bronchi and lung (18.1-23.2%), stomach (13.2-18.5%), mammary gland (11.9-18.9%), colon (2.5-6.4%), rectum (4.7-6.2%), esophagus (4.0-7.4%) and leukemia (1.9-3.1%). The decrease of the occurrence rate of the cancer of stomach (on 23.2%), the cancer of esophagus (on 38.3%), the respiratory organs (on 6.9%) and the leukemia (on 4.5%). The major increase of mortality during the last 17 years was noted for such pathological conditions as the cancer of colon (on 181.6%), the cancer of the organs of urogenital system (on 53.4%), the cancer of prostate gland (116.8%) and mammary gland (on 47.6%). The peak rate of oncological mortality falls on the age of 70 years and older. The oncological mortality of the overall population has lower levels in comparison with average national indicators.