Hospital admission from the emergency department for selected emergent diagnoses during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario: a retrospective population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Avoidance of care during the pandemic may have contributed to delays in care, and as a result, worse patient outcomes. We evaluated markers of illness acuity on presentation to the emergency department among patients with non-COVID-19-related emergent diagnoses and associated outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study using linked administrative data from Ontario. We selected 4 emergent diagnoses, namely appendicitis, ectopic pregnancy, renal failure and diabetic ketoacidosis. We used the nonemergent diagnosis of cellulitis as a control. Our primary outcome of interest was hospital admission. Secondary outcomes were ambulance arrival, surgical intervention, subsequent hospital admission within 30 days of discharge from the emergency department or hospital and 30-day mortality. We compared outcomes during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (Mar. 15-Dec. 31, 2020) with a control period (Mar. 15-Dec. 31, 2018, and Mar. 15-Dec. 31, 2019). RESULTS: Emergency department visits for all conditions initially decreased during the pandemic. During this period, patients across all study diagnoses were more likely to arrive to the emergency department via ambulance. Patients with an ectopic pregnancy had higher odds of surgery in the pandemic period (odds ratio [OR] 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.55) but this was not observed among patients with appendicitis. Patients with renal failure had increased odds of hospital admission (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04-1.24) and 30-day mortality (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04-1.31) during the pandemic period. INTERPRETATION: The pandemic period was associated with increased arrival to the emergency department via ambulance across all study diagnoses. Although patients with renal failure had increased hospital admission and death, and patients with ectopic pregnancy had an increased risk of surgery, there were no differences in outcomes for other populations, suggesting the health care system was able to care for these patients effectively.

Ninety-Day Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack Recurrence in Patients Prescribed Anticoagulation in the Emergency Department With Atrial Fibrillation and a New Transient Ischemic Attack or Minor Stroke.

Background For patients with atrial fibrillation seen in the emergency department (ED) following a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke, the impact of initiating oral anticoagulation immediately rather than deferring the decision to outpatient follow-up is unknown. Methods and Results We conducted a planned secondary data analysis of a prospective cohort of 11 507 adults in 13 Canadian EDs between 2006 and 2018. Patients were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older, with a final diagnosis of TIA or minor stroke with previously documented or newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation. The primary outcome was subsequent stroke, recurrent TIA, or all-cause mortality within 90 days of the index TIA diagnosis. Secondary outcomes included stroke, recurrent TIA, or death and rates of major bleeding. Of 11 507 subjects with TIA/minor stroke, atrial fibrillation was identified in 11.2% (1286, mean age, 77.3 [SD 11.1] years, 52.4% male). Over half (699; 54.4%) were already taking anticoagulation, 89 (6.9%) were newly prescribed anticoagulation in the ED. By 90 days, 4.0% of the atrial fibrillation cohort had experienced a subsequent stroke, 6.5% subsequent TIA, and 2.6% died. Results of a multivariable logistic regression indicate no association between prescribed anticoagulation in the ED and these 90-day outcomes (composite odds ratio, 1.37 [95% CI, 0.74-2.52]). Major bleeding was found in 5 patients, none of whom were in the ED-initiated anticoagulation group. Conclusions Initiating oral anticoagulation in the ED following new TIA was not associated with lower recurrence rates of neurovascular events or all-cause mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Prospective Validation of Computed Tomography to Identify Patients at High Risk for Stroke After Transient Ischemic Attack or Minor Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT) findings of acute and chronic ischemia are associated with subsequent stroke risk in patients with transient ischemic attack. We sought to validate these associations in a large prospective cohort of patients with transient ischemic attack or minor stroke. METHODS: This prospective cohort study enrolled emergency department patients from 13 hospitals with transient ischemic attack who had CT imaging. Primary outcome was stroke within 90 days. Secondary outcomes were stroke within 2 or 7 days. CT findings were abstracted from radiology reports and classified for the presence of acute ischemia, chronic ischemia, or microangiopathy. Multivariable logistic regression was used to test associations with primary and secondary end points. RESULTS: From 8670 prospectively enrolled patients between May 2010 and May 2017, 8382 had a CT within 24 hours. From this total population, 4547 (54%) patients had evidence of acute ischemia, chronic ischemia, or microangiopathy on CT, of whom 175 had a subsequent stroke within 90 days (3.8% subsequent stroke rate; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.33 [95% CI, 1.62-3.36]). This was in comparison to those with CT imaging without ischemia. Findings associated with an increased risk of stroke at 90 days were isolated acute ischemia (6.0%; aOR, 2.42 [95% CI, 1.03-5.66]), acute ischemia with microangiopathy (10.7%; aOR, 3.34 [95% CI, 1.57-7.14]), chronic ischemia with microangiopathy (5.2%; aOR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.34-2.50]), and acute ischemia with chronic ischemia and microangiopathy (10.9%; aOR, 3.49 [95% CI, 1.54-7.91]). Acute ischemia with chronic ischemia and microangiopathy were most strongly associated with subsequent stroke within 2 days (aOR, 4.36 [95% CI, 1.31-14.54]) and 7 days (aOR, 4.50 [95% CI, 1.73-11.69]). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with transient ischemic attack or minor stroke, CT evidence of acute ischemia with chronic ischemia or microangiopathy significantly increases the risk of subsequent stroke within 90 days of index visit. The combination of all 3 findings results in the greatest early risk.

Venous Thromboembolism in Patients Discharged From the Emergency Department With Ankle Fractures: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Temporary lower limb immobilization may be a risk for venous thromboembolism. The purpose of this study was to examine the 90-day incidence of venous thromboembolism among patients discharged from an emergency department (ED) with ankle fractures requiring temporary immobilization. Secondary objectives were to examine individual factors associated with venous thromboembolism in this population and to compare the risk of venous thromboembolism in patients with ankle fractures against a priori-selected control groups. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using province-wide health datasets from Ontario, Canada. We included patients aged 16 years and older discharged from an ED between 2013 and 2018 with closed ankle fractures requiring temporary immobilization. We estimated 90-day incidence of venous thromboembolism after ankle fracture. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate risk factors associated with venous thromboembolism, censoring at 90 days or death. Patients with ankle fractures were then propensity score matched to 2 control groups: patients discharged with injuries not requiring lower limb immobilization (ie, finger wounds and wrist fractures) to compare relative hazard of venous thromboembolism. RESULTS: There were 86,081 eligible patients with ankle fractures. Incidence of venous thromboembolism within 90 days was 1.3%. Factors associated with venous thromboembolism were older age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00 to 1.39), venous thromboembolism or superficial venous thrombosis history (HR: 5.18; 95% CI: 4.33 to 6.20), recent hospital admission (HR: 1.33; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.68), recent nonankle fracture surgery (HR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.30 to 1.93), and subsequent surgery for ankle fracture (HR: 1.80; 95% CI: 1.48 to 2.20). In the matched cohort, patients with ankle fractures had an increased hazard of venous thromboembolism compared to matched controls with finger wounds (HR: 6.31; 95% CI: 5.30 to 7.52) and wrist fractures (HR: 5.68; 95% CI: 4.71 to 6.85). CONCLUSION: The 90-day incidence of venous thromboembolism among patients discharged from the ED with ankle fractures requiring immobilization was 1.3%. These patients had a 5.7- to 6.3-fold increased hazard compared to matched controls. Certain patients immobilized for ankle fractures are at higher risk of venous thromboembolism, and this should be recognized by emergency physicians.

Predictors of neurologists confirming or overturning emergency physicians' diagnosis of TIA or stroke.

BACKGROUND: Transient ischemic attack (TIA) and non-disabling stroke are common emergency department (ED) presentations. Currently, there are no prospective multicenter studies determining predictors of neurologists confirming a diagnosis of cerebral ischemia in patients discharged with a diagnosis of TIA or stroke. The objectives were to (1) calculate the concordance between emergency physicians and neurologists for the outcome of diagnosing TIA or stroke, and (2) identify characteristics associated with neurologists diagnosing a stroke mimic. METHODS: This was a planned sub-study of a prospective cohort study at 14 Canadian EDs enrolling patients diagnosed with TIA or non-disabling stroke from 2006 to 2017. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with neurologists' diagnosis of cerebral ischemia. Our primary outcome was the composite outcome of cerebral ischemia (TIA or non-disabling stroke) based on the neurologists' assessment. RESULTS: The diagnosis of cerebral ischemia was confirmed by neurologists in 5794 patients (55.4%). The most common identified stroke mimics were migraine (18%), peripheral vertigo (7%), syncope (4%), and seizure (3%). Over a third of patients (38.4%) ultimately had an undetermined aetiology for their symptoms. The strongest predictors of cerebral ischemia confirmation were infarct on CT (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.65-2.02), advanced age (OR comparing 75th-25th percentiles 1.67, 1.55-1.80), language disturbance (OR 1.92, 1.75-2.10), and smoking (OR 1.67, 1.46-1.91). The strongest predictors of stroke mimics were syncope (OR 0.59, 0.48-0.72), vertigo (OR 0.52, 0.45-0.59), bilateral symptoms (OR 0.60, 0.50-0.72), and confusion (OR 0.50, 0.44-0.57). CONCLUSION: Physicians should have a high index of suspicion of cerebral ischemia in patients with advanced age, smoking history, language disturbance, or infarcts on CT. Physicians should discriminate in which patients to pursue stroke investigations on when deemed at minimal risk of cerebral ischemia, including those with isolated vertigo, syncope, or bilateral symptoms.

RéSUMé: CONTEXTE: L'accident ischémique transitoire (AIT) et l'accident vasculaire cérébral (AVC) non invalidant sont des présentations courantes dans les services d'urgence. Actuellement, il n'existe pas d'études prospectives multicentriques déterminant les facteurs prédictifs de la confirmation par les neurologues d'un diagnostic d'ischémie cérébrale chez les patients sortis de l'hôpital avec un diagnostic d'AIT ou d'AVC. Les objectifs étaient de (1) calculer la concordance entre les urgentistes et les neurologues pour le résultat du diagnostic de l'AIT ou de l'AVC, et (2) identifier les caractéristiques associées au diagnostic par les neurologues d'une imitation d'AVC. MéTHODES: Il s'agissait d'une sous-étude planifiée d'une étude de cohorte prospective dans 14 services d'urgence canadiens recrutant des patients diagnostiqués avec un AIT ou un AVC non invalidant de 2006 à 2017. Une régression logistique a été utilisée pour identifier les facteurs associés au diagnostic d'ischémie cérébrale par les neurologues. Notre résultat principal était le résultat composite de l'ischémie cérébrale (AIT ou accident vasculaire cérébral non invalidant) selon l'évaluation des neurologues. RéSULTATS: Le diagnostic d'ischémie cérébrale a été confirmé par des neurologues chez 5 794 patients (55,4 %). Les imitateurs d'AVC identifiés les plus courants étaient la migraine (18 %), le vertige périphérique (7 %), la syncope (4 %) et les convulsions (3 %). Plus d'un tiers des patients (38,4 %) avaient finalement une étiologie indéterminée pour leurs symptômes. Les prédicteurs les plus forts de la confirmation de l'ischémie cérébrale étaient l'infarctus au scanner (OR 1.83, IC 95 % 1.65­2.02), l'âge avancé (OR comparant les 75e et 25e percentiles 1.67, 1.55­1.80), les troubles du langage (OR 1.92, 1.75­2.10) et le tabagisme (OR 1.67, 1.46­1.91). Les prédicteurs les plus forts d'imitateurs d'AVC étaient la syncope (OR 0.59, 0.48­0.72), le vertige (OR 0.52, 0.45­0.59), les symptômes bilatéraux (OR 0.60, 0.50­0.72) et la confusion (OR 0.50, 0.44­0.57). CONCLUSION: Les médecins devraient avoir un indice élevé de suspicion d'ischémie cérébrale chez les patients ayant un âge avancé, des antécédents de tabagisme, des troubles du langage ou des infarctus au scanner. Les médecins doivent distinguer les patients sur lesquels poursuivre des investigations sur un AVC lorsqu'ils sont jugés à risque minimal d'ischémie cérébrale, y compris ceux présentant des vertiges isolés, une syncope ou des symptômes bilatéraux.

I'm here because I was told to come: a study of cancer patients' reasons for attending the emergency department.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with cancer are seen frequently in emergency departments (EDs). It has been proposed that many of these visits are preventable, but the patient perspective has not been well-studied. METHODS: We conducted structured interviews with a convenience sample of patients who presented to a single ED with a cancer-related complaint. We asked standardized questions regarding patient predisposing characteristics, enabling factors (e.g., access to support), and perceived need for care. We compared the reported perceived need with the evaluated need by ED healthcare providers. Themes were identified using descriptive content analysis. RESULTS: Forty-five patients completed interviews, of whom 30 (67%) were admitted to hospital. The most frequent reasons for seeking ED care were pain (includes abdominal) (33%), fever (11%), and weakness (11%). The majority (77%) did not make the decision to go to the ED alone: healthcare providers (40%, most commonly oncologists) and caregivers (36%) were the reported decision-makers in these cases. The majority (73%) felt their ED visit was not preventable. Themes of an alternative oncological setting for tests, improved community services, and both earlier medication management and referral to specialist care were identified from patients who reported their visit was avoidable. Congruence between (patient) perceived need and evaluated need was high (96%). CONCLUSIONS: The minority of patients made the decision to seek ED care by themselves. While the majority did not believe emergency care was avoidable, those who did had cogent suggestions to that end. Patient's assessments of their own need had high agreement with ED providers' evaluations.

Outcomes after emergency department use in patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy in Ontario, Canada: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cancer frequently require emergency medical care during treatment. The objective of this study was to characterize emergency department visits made by patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy and to describe associated outcomes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used population-based administrative data from Ontario, Canada. Patients aged 18 years and older, with a cancer diagnosis, and who received chemotherapy in the 30 days before being seen in an emergency department between 2013 and 2017 were included. Emergency department discharge diagnosis codes were categorized to identify the most frequent emergency department diagnoses. We examined the proportion of patients admitted to hospital and 30-day mortality. We used logistic regression to identify predictors of hospital admission. RESULTS: We identified 218 459 emergency department visits made by 87 555 patients. The median number of emergency department visits per patient was 2 (interquartile range 1-3). Hematological, gastrointestinal, breast and lung cancer were the most common malignancies represented. The most common emergency department diagnoses were infection or fever (57 036 [26.1%]) and gastrointestinal diagnoses (26 456 [12.2%]). Of all visits, 77 978 (35.7%) resulted in admission to hospital. Thirty-day mortality after an emergency department visit was 9.8%. There was an increased odds of admission among patients who previously received palliative consultation, patients with bone or soft tissue or hematological malignancies, and patients with infection, gastrointestinal, pulmonary, cardiac, weakness or genitourinary and nephrology diagnoses. INTERPRETATION: Patients with cancer frequently used the emergency department during chemotherapy, and 1 in 4 emergency department visits were for infection or fever. These results highlight opportunities to optimize care for certain patients being actively treated for cancer, particularly around infectious complaints.

Integration of patient-reported outcomes (PROs) for personalized symptom management in "real-world" oncology practices: a population-based cohort comparison study of impact on healthcare utilization.

BACKGROUND: The use of patient-reported outcomes (PROs) for routine cancer distress screening is endorsed globally as a quality-care standard. However, there is little research on the integration of PROs in "real-world" oncology practices using implementation science methods. The Improving Patient Experience and Health Outcome Collaborative (iPEHOC) intervention was established at multisite disease clinics to facilitate the use of PRO data by clinicians for precision symptom care. The aim of this study was to examine if patients exposed to the intervention differed in their healthcare utilization compared with contemporaneous controls in the same time frame. METHODS: We used a PRE- and DURING-intervention population cohort comparison study design to estimate the effects of the iPEHOC intervention on the difference in difference (DID) for relative rates (RR) for emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, psychosocial oncology (PSO), palliative care visits, and prescription rates for opioids and antidepressants compared with controls. RESULTS: A small significantly lower Difference in Difference (DID) (- 0.223) in the RR for ED visits was noted for the intervention compared with controls over time (0.947, CI 0.900-0.996); and a DID (- 0.0329) for patients meeting ESAS symptom thresholds (0.927, CI 0.869-0.990). A lower DID in palliative care visits (- 0.0097), psychosocial oncology visits (- 0.0248), antidepressant prescriptions (- 0.0260) and an increase in opioid prescriptions (0.0456) in the exposed population compared with controls was also noted. A similar pattern was shown for ESAS as a secondary exposure variable. CONCLUSION: Facilitating uptake of PROs data may impact healthcare utilization but requires examination in larger scale "real-world" trials.

Operationalizing Outpatient Palliative Care Referral Criteria in Lung Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Cohort Study Using Health Administrative Data.

Background: Early referral of cancer patients for palliative care significantly improves the quality of life. It is not clear which patients can benefit from an early referral, and when the referral should occur. A Delphi Panel study proposed 11 major criteria for an outpatient palliative care referral. Objective: To operationalize major Delphi criteria in a cohort of lung cancer patients, using a prospective approach, by linking health administrative data. Design: Population-based observational cohort study. Setting/Subjects: The study population comprised 38,851 cases of lung cancer in the Ontario Cancer Registry, diagnosed from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2016. Measurements: We operationalized 6 of the 11 major criteria (4 diagnosis or prognosis based and 2 symptom based). Patients were considered eligible (index event) for palliative care if they qualified for any criterion. Among eligible patients, we identified those who received palliative care. Results: Twenty-eight thousand one hundred sixty-four patients were eligible for palliative care by qualifying for either the diagnosis- or prognosis-based criteria (n = 21,036, 76.5%), or for symptom-based criteria (n = 7128, 23.5%). A total of 23,199 (82.4%) patients received palliative care. The median time from palliative care eligibility to the receipt of first palliative care or death or maximum study follow-up was 56 days (range = 17-348). Conclusions: We operationalized six major criteria that identified the majority of lung cancer patients who were eligible for palliative care. Most eligible patients received the palliative care before death. Future research is warranted to test these criteria in other cancer populations.

The association of continuity of care and cancer centre affiliation with outcomes among patients with cancer who require emergency department care.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cancer have complex care requirements and frequently use the emergency department. The purpose of this study was to determine whether continuity of care, cancer expertise of an institution or both affect outcomes in patients with cancer in the emergency setting. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using administrative databases from Ontario, Canada, involving records of patients aged 20 years and older who received chemotherapy or radiation in the 30 days before a cancer-related visit to the emergency department between 2006 and 2011. Patients seen in an emergency department at an alternative hospital (not the site where cancer treatment was given) were matched based on propensity score to patients who visited their original hospital (site where cancer treatment was given). Next, patients seen at an alternative emergency department that was in a general hospital (i.e., not a cancer centre) were matched to patients who visited their original hospital or a cancer centre. Outcomes were admission to hospital at the index visit to the emergency department, 30-day mortality, having imaging with computed tomography and return visits to the emergency department. RESULTS: We found 42 820 patients who were eligible for our study. Patients seen in the emergency departments at alternative hospitals were less likely to be admitted to hospital (odds ratio [OR] 0.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74-0.83) and had higher hazards of return visits to the emergency department than matched patients at original hospitals (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.11). In comparison, patients at alternative general hospitals also had lower odds of admission to hospital (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.79-0.88) and higher hazards of return visits to the emergency department (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.11) compared with matched counterparts; however, these patients had higher 30-day mortality (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05-1.22) and lower odds of having CT imaging (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.69-0.80). INTERPRETATION: Cancer expertise of an institution rather than continuity of care may be an important predictor of outcomes following emergency treatment of patients with cancer.

Ambulatory Toxicity Management (AToM) Pilot: results of a pilot study of a pro-active, telephone-based intervention to improve toxicity management during chemotherapy for breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy is associated with a significant risk of toxicity, which often peaks between ambulatory visits to the cancer centre. Remote symptom management support is a tool to optimize self-management and healthcare utilization, including emergency department visits and hospitalizations (ED+H) during chemotherapy. We performed a single-arm pilot study to evaluate the feasibility, acceptability, and potential impact of a telephone symptom management intervention on healthcare utilization during chemotherapy for early stage breast cancer (EBC). METHODS: Women starting adjuvant or neoadjuvant chemotherapy for EBC at two cancer centres in Ontario, Canada, received standardized, nurse-led calls to assess common toxicities at two time points following each chemotherapy administration. Feasibility outcomes included patient enrollment, retention, RN adherence to delivering calls per the study schedule, and resource use associated with calls; acceptability was evaluated based on patient and provider feedback. Impact on acute care utilization was evaluated post hoc by linking individual patient records to provincial data holdings to examine ED+H patterns among participating patients compared to contemporaneous controls. RESULTS: Between September 2013 and December 2014, 77 women were enrolled (mean age 55 years). Most commonly used regimens were AC-paclitaxel (58%) and FEC-docetaxel (16%); 78% of patients received primary granulocyte colony-stimulating factor prophylaxis. 83.8% of calls were delivered per schedule; mean call duration was 9 min. The intervention was well received by both patients and clinicians. Comparison of ED+H rates among study participants versus controls showed that there were fewer ED visits in intervention patients [incidence rate ratio (IRR) (95% CI) = 0.54 (0.36, 0.81)] but no difference in the rate of hospitalizations [IRR (95% CI) = 1.02 (0.59, 1.77)]. Main implementation challenges included identifying eligible patients, fitting the calls into existing clinical responsibilities, and effective communication to the patient's clinical team. CONCLUSIONS: Telephone-based pro-active toxicity management during chemotherapy is feasible, perceived as valuable by clinicians and patients, and may be associated with lower rates of acute care use. However, attention must be paid to workflow issues for scalability. Larger scale evaluation of this approach is in progress.

Factors Associated With Opioid Use in Long-term Cancer Survivors.

PURPOSE: To evaluate factors associated with opioid use in patients with cancer surviving more than five years without recurrence. We evaluated exposures of opioid use before cancer diagnosis, opioid use between cancer diagnosis and five-year anniversary, surgeries, and chemotherapy. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked provincial administrative data. Patients were aged 24-70 years and eligible for government-funded pharmacare. The index date was the five-year anniversary from diagnosis. Patients were accrued between 2010 and 2015. The main outcome was opioid prescription rate after index date. The main exposures were opioid use before diagnosis, opioid use between diagnosis and index, surgeries, and chemotherapy. A negative binomial regression model was used to estimate relative rates (RR) of opioid use after index date. RESULTS: Our cohort included 7431 individuals. The overall crude prescription rate after the index date was 2 per person-year. The factor most strongly associated with a higher rate of opioid use after index was continuous opioid use between diagnosis and index (RR 46.1, 95% confidence interval 34.8-61.2). Opioid use before diagnosis was also a factor (RR = 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.44-2.19). A history of depression, comorbidity, and more than two years of diabetes were also associated with higher risk of post-index date opioid use. Significant interactions were identified between prior opioid use and opioid use between diagnosis and index. Most prescriptions are from family physicians. CONCLUSION: Patients who use opioids continuously between diagnosis and index date are at increased risk of continued use after five years of survival. Safe and appropriate pain management is an important survivorship issue.

Sleep Apnea Increases the Risk of New Hospitalized Atrial Fibrillation: A Historical Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the relationship between newly diagnosed OSA and incident hospitalized atrial fibrillation (AF) over the subsequent 10 years in a large arrhythmia-free cohort. METHODS: Adults referred between 1994 and 2010 to a large academic hospital with suspected OSA who were arrhythmia-free at the time of the first diagnostic sleep study were included. Clinical data were linked to provincial health administrative data to define outcome. Cox regressions were used to investigate the relationship between severity of OSA as measured by the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and degree of nocturnal hypoxemia, and incident hospitalized AF. RESULTS: In total, 8,256 subjects were included in this study. Their median age was 47 years, 62% were men; 28% had an AHI > 30 events per hour, and 6% spent > 30% of sleep time with oxygen saturation < 90%. Over a median follow-up of 10 years (interquartile range, 7-13 years), 173 participants (2.1%) were hospitalized with AF. Controlling for age, sex, alcohol consumption, smoking status, previous heart failure, COPD, and pulmonary embolism, nocturnal hypoxemia (but not AHI) was a significant predictor of incident AF: hazard ratio, 2.47 (95% CI, 1.64-3.71). After further controlling for BMI and hypertension, this association was attenuated but remained significant (hazard ratio, 1.77 [95% CI, 1.15-2.74]). CONCLUSIONS: In a large arrhythmia-free clinical cohort with suspected OSA, nocturnal hypoxemia was independently associated with a 77% increased hazard of incident hospitalized AF. These findings further support a relationship between OSA, nocturnal hypoxemia, and new-onset AF, and they may be used to enhance AF prevention in patients with OSA and severe nocturnal hypoxemia.

A clinical decision instrument to predict 30-day death and cardiovascular hospitalizations after an emergency department visit for atrial fibrillation: The Atrial Fibrillation in the Emergency Room, Part 2 (AFTER2) study.

BACKGROUND: In previous work, we derived and validated a tool that predicts 30-day mortality in emergency department atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a tool that predicts a composite of 30-day mortality and return cardiovascular hospitalizations. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study at 24 emergency departments in Ontario, Canada, included patients with a primary diagnosis of AF who were seen between April 2008 and March 2009. We assessed a composite outcome of 30-day mortality and subsequent hospitalizations for a cardiovascular reason, including stroke. RESULTS: Of 3,510 patients, 2,343 were randomly selected for the derivation cohort, leaving 1,167 in the validation cohort. The composite outcome occurred in 227 (9.7%) and 125 (10.7%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Eleven variables were independently associated with the outcome: older age, not taking anticoagulation, HAS-BLED score of ≥3, 3 laboratory results (positive troponin, supratherapeutic international normalized ratio, and elevated creatinine), emergency department administration of furosemide, and 4 patient comorbidities (heart failure, chronic obstructive lung disease, cancer, dementia). In the validation cohort, the observed 30-day outcomes in the 5 risk strata that were defined using the derivation cohort were 2.0%, 6.6%, 10.7%, 12.5%, and 20.0%. The c statistic was 0.73 and 0.69 in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using a population-based sample, we derived and validated a tool that predicts the risk of early death and rehospitalization for a cardiovascular reason in emergency department AF patients. The tool can offer information to managing physicians about the risk of death and rehospitalization for AF patients seen in the in emergency department, as well as identify patient groups for future targeted interventions aimed at preventing these outcomes.

Comparison of Opioid Prescribing Among Cancer and Noncancer Patients Aged 18-64: Analysis Using Administrative Data.

BACKGROUND: Opioid prescribing has been increasingly scrutinized among noncancer patients. As an unintended consequence, opioids may be underprescribed for cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to compare trends in opioid prescribing in younger adults with and without cancer. METHODS: From 2004 to 2013, Ontario residents aged 18-64 years eligible for government paid pharmacare were annually stratified into three groups: no cancer history, cancer diagnosis more than five years ago, and cancer diagnosis five years ago and less. We evaluated time trends in two annual outcomes: opioid prescription rate and mean daily opioid dose. RESULTS: In 2013, 800,371 individuals were eligible for this study (3% with recent cancer and 2% with remote cancer). Across all years, compared with noncancer patients, overall opioid prescription rates were 43% and 26% higher for those with recent and remote cancer, respectively. Overall, a 1% relative annual increase was seen in those without cancer and a 1% decrease was seen in those with a recent cancer. Changes in prescription rates varied with drug class and cancer group. Notably, long-acting opioids had a relative annual increase of 7% in noncancer patients vs. 2% in recent cancer patients. Immediate-release combination agents had a relative annual decrease of 2% for all cancer groups. Trends in mean daily dose were similar between groups, but by 2013, they were lowest in recent cancer patients, regardless of drug class. INTERPRETATION: Secular trends in opioid prescribing affect cancer and noncancer patients similarly. Further research is required to assess the potential impact on symptom management.

Predictors of obtaining follow-up care in the province of Ontario, Canada, following a new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and hypertension in the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with cardiovascular diseases are common in the emergency department (ED), and continuity of care following that visit is needed to ensure that they receive evidence-based diagnostic tests and therapy. We examined the frequency of follow-up care after discharge from an ED with a new diagnosis of one of three cardiovascular diseases. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with a new diagnosis of heart failure, atrial fibrillation, or hypertension, who were discharged from 157 non-pediatric EDs in Ontario, Canada, between April 2007 and March 2014. We determined the frequency of follow-up care with a family physician, cardiologist, or internist within seven and 30 days, and assessed the association of patient, emergency physician, and family physician characteristics with obtaining follow-up care using cause-specific hazard modeling. RESULTS: There were 41,485 qualifying ED visits. Just under half (47.0%) had follow-up care within seven days, with 78.7% seen by 30 days. Patients with serious comorbidities (renal failure, dementia, COPD, stroke, coronary artery disease, and cancer) had a lower adjusted hazard of obtaining 7-day follow-up care (HRs 0.77-0.95) and 30-day follow-up care (HR 0.76-0.95). The only emergency physician characteristic associated with follow-up care was 5-year emergency medicine specialty training (HR 1.11). Compared to those whose family physician was remunerated via a primarily fee-for-service model, patients were less likely to obtain 7-day follow-up care if their family physician was remunerated via three types of capitation models (HR 0.72, 0.81, 0.85) or via traditional fee-for-service (HR 0.91). Findings were similar for 30-day follow-up care. CONCLUSIONS: Only half of patients discharged from an ED with a new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and hypertension were seen within a week of being discharged. Patients with significant comorbidities were less likely to obtain follow-up care, as were those with a family physician who was remunerated via primarily capitation methods.

Association of Atrial Fibrillation and Oral Anticoagulant Use With Perioperative Outcomes After Major Noncardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: We examined the association of atrial fibrillation (AF) and oral anticoagulant use with perioperative death and bleeding among patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: A population-based study of patients aged 66 years and older who underwent elective (n=87 257) or urgent (n=35 930) noncardiac surgery in Ontario, Canada (April 2012 to March 2015) was performed. Outcomes were compared between AF groups using inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score. Of 4612 urgent surgical patients with AF, treatments before surgery included warfarin (n=1619), a direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) (n=729), and no anticoagulation (n=2264). After urgent surgery, the death rate within 30 days was significantly higher in patients with AF compared with patients with no AF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.45). In contrast, among 4769 elective surgical patients with AF treated with warfarin (n=1453), a DOAC (n=1165), or no anticoagulation (n=2151), prior AF was not associated with higher mortality. Comparing patients with AF who were or were not anticoagulated, there was no difference in 30-day mortality after urgent (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.79-1.14) or elective (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.38-1.09) surgery. There was no difference in 30-day mortality between patients with AF treated with a DOAC or warfarin after urgent (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.70-1.18) or elective (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 0.77-3.53) surgery. Bleeding and thromboembolic rates did not differ significantly among patients with AF prescribed a DOAC or warfarin. CONCLUSIONS: Prior AF was associated with 30-day mortality among patients undergoing urgent surgery. In patients with AF, neither the preoperative use of oral anticoagulants, nor the type of agent (either a DOAC or warfarin) were associated with the rate of 30-day mortality.

Has Province-Wide Symptom Screening Changed Opioid Prescribing Rates in Older Patients With Cancer?

PURPOSE: Previous work in Ontario demonstrated that 33% of patients with cancer with severe pain did not receive opioids at the time of their pain assessment. With efforts to increase symptom screening and management since then, the objective of this study was to examine temporal trends in opioid prescribing. METHODS: The cohort was comprised of Ontario residents ≥ 65 years of age with a cancer history who were eligible for the government pharmacare program and had a pain assessment using the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System. Use of the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System is part of a provincial initiative to screen ambulatory patients with cancer for symptoms. Annually between 2007 and 2013, we used the date of an individual's highest pain score as the index date to calculate annual opioid prescription rates for claims within 30 days before and up to 7 days after the index date. A logistic regression model evaluated the association between index year and odds of receiving an opioid prescription. RESULTS: During the study period, the number of individuals undergoing symptom assessment annually increased more than eight-fold. Opioid prescription rates were directly related to pain scores, but there was an annual 5% relative decrease in the odds of receiving an opioid prescription during the era from 2009 to 2013. CONCLUSION: We are doing better at screening for pain, but this has not led to an increase in analgesic intervention for those identified. Additional work is required to determine what opioid prescribing rate is optimal to ensure we are not missing opportunities to improve patient comfort.

Opioid Prescribing Among Cancer and Non-cancer Patients: Time Trend Analysis in the Elderly Using Administrative Data.

CONTEXT: In 2007, Cancer Care Ontario introduced a provincial symptom screening program, which included pain, for cancer patients. Over this same time, opioid prescribing has been increasingly scrutinized among non-cancer patients. The study purpose was to see if opioid prescribing changed among older adults after 2007 in the context of changing opioid regulations, and whether effects were different among patients with a cancer history. METHODS: Ontario residents aged ≥65 years were identified from 2004 to 2013. Subjects were annually stratified into three groups: no cancer history, cancer diagnosis >5 years ago, and cancer diagnosis ≤5 years ago. We evaluated time trends by year for: 1) opioid prescription rate, comparing trends before and after 2007 and 2) mean daily opioid dose. RESULTS: Between 2004 and 2013, opioid prescribing was relatively constant for cancer patients with no observed change in trends after 2007. For non-cancer patients, there was a 2% relative annual increase during this period. Significant changes were seen for opioid sub-classes (e.g., decreasing use of long-acting oxycodone). These were similar for those with or without a history of cancer. Among all groups, changes in the mean daily dose over time were similar in all drug classes. CONCLUSION: Overall prescribing rates for cancer patients aged ≥65 years remain unchanged over time, in spite of the introduction of a provincial symptom screening program. Decreasing prescription rates in some drug sub-classes were observed. The potential impact of these changes on the quality of symptom control for cancer patients needs further investigation.

The Cardiovascular Health in Ambulatory Care Research Team performance indicators for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a modified Delphi panel study.

BACKGROUND: High-quality ambulatory care can reduce cardiovascular disease risk, but important gaps exist in the provision of cardiovascular preventive care. We sought to develop a set of key performance indicators that can be used to measure and improve cardiovascular care in the primary care setting. METHODS: As part of the Cardiovascular Health in Ambulatory Care Research Team initiative, we established a 14-member multidisciplinary expert panel to develop a set of indicators for measuring primary prevention performance in ambulatory cardiovascular care. We used a 2-stage modified Delphi panel process to rate potential indicators, which were identified from the literature and national cardiovascular organizations. The top-rated indicators were pilot tested to determine their measurement feasibility with the use of data routinely collected in the Canadian health care system. RESULTS: A set of 28 indicators of primary prevention performance were identified, which were grouped into 5 domains: risk factor prevalence, screening, management, intermediate outcomes and long-term outcomes. The indicators reflect the major cardiovascular risk factors including smoking, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia and atrial fibrillation. All indicators were determined to be amenable to measurement with the use of population-based administrative (physician claims, hospital admission, laboratory, medication), survey or electronic medical record databases. INTERPRETATION: The Cardiovascular Health in Ambulatory Care Research Team indicators of primary prevention performance provide a framework for the measurement of cardiovascular primary prevention efforts in Canada. The indicators may be used by clinicians, researchers and policy-makers interested in measuring and improving the prevention of cardiovascular disease in ambulatory care settings.