An annual profile of the impacts of simulated oil spills on the Northeast Arctic cod and haddock fisheries.

We simulate the combined natural and pollutant-induced survival of early life stages of NEA cod and haddock, and the impact on the adult populations in response to the time of a major oil spill in a single year. Our simulations reveal how dynamic ocean processes, controlling both oil transport and fate and the frequency of interactions of oil with drifting fish eggs and larvae, mediate the magnitude of population losses due to an oil spill. The largest impacts on fish early life stages occurred for spills initiated in Feb-Mar, concomitant with the initial rise in marine productivity and the earliest phase of the spawning season. The reproductive health of the adult fish populations was maintained in all scenarios. The study demonstrates the application of a simulation system that provides managers with information for the planning of development activities and for the protection of fisheries resources from potential impacts.

Assessing impacts of simulated oil spills on the Northeast Arctic cod fishery.

We simulate oil spills of 1500 and 4500m3/day lasting 14, 45, and 90days in the spawning grounds of the commercial fish species, Northeast Arctic cod. Modeling the life history of individual fish eggs and larvae, we predict deviations from the historical pattern of recruitment to the adult population due to toxic oil exposures. Reductions in survival for pelagic stages of cod were 0-10%, up to a maximum of 43%. These reductions resulted in a decrease in adult cod biomass of <3% for most scenarios, up to a maximum of 12%. In all simulations, the adult population remained at full reproductive potential with a sufficient number of juveniles surviving to replenish the population. The diverse age distribution helps protect the adult cod population from reductions in a single year's recruitment after a major oil spill. These results provide insights to assist in managing oil spill impacts on fisheries.