RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Sorafenib is the gold standard therapy for the advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). No scoring/staging is universally accepted to predict the survival of these patients. AIMS: To evaluate the accuracy of the available prognostic models for HCC to predict the survival of advanced HCC patients treated with Sorafenib included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA.) multicenter cohort. METHODS: The performance of several prognostic scores was assessed through a Cox regression-model evaluating the C-index and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). RESULTS: Data of 1129 patients were analyzed. The mean age of patients was 61.6 years, and 80.8% were male. During a median follow-up period of 13 months, 789 patients died. The median period of Sorafenib administration was 4 months. All the prognostic scores were able to predict the overall survival (p<0.001) at univariate analysis, except the Albumin-Bilirubin score. The Italian Liver Cancer score (CLIP) yielded the highest accuracy (C-index 0.604, AIC 9898), followed by the ITA.LI.CA. prognostic score (C-index 0.599, AIC 9915). CONCLUSIONS: The CLIP score had the highest accuracy in predicting the overall survival of HCC patients treated with Sorafenib, although its performance remained poor. Further studies are needed to refine the current ability to predict the outcome of HCC patients undergoing Sorafenib.
Assuntos
Antineoplásicos/uso terapêutico , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/mortalidade , Neoplasias Hepáticas/mortalidade , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Sorafenibe/uso terapêutico , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/tratamento farmacológico , Feminino , Humanos , Itália , Neoplasias Hepáticas/tratamento farmacológico , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Prognóstico , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Estudos Prospectivos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is changing in most areas of the world. This study aimed at updating the changing scenario of aetiology, clinical presentation, management and prognosis of HCC in Italy during the last 15 years. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database included 6034 HCC patients managed in 23 centres from 2004 to 2018. Patients were divided into three groups according to the date of cancer diagnosis (2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2018). RESULTS: The main results were: (i) a progressive patient ageing; (ii) a progressive increase of non-viral cases and, particularly, of 'metabolic' and 'metabolic + alcohol' HCCs; (iii) a slightly decline of cases diagnosed under surveillance, but with an incremental use of the semiannual schedule; (iv) a favourable cancer stage migration; (v) an increased use of radiofrequency ablation to the detriment of percutaneous ethanol injection; (vi) improved outcomes of ablative and transarterial treatments; (vii) an improved overall survival (adjusted for the lead time in surveyed patients) in the last calendar period, particularly in viral patients; (viii) a large gap between the number of potential candidates (according to oncologic criteria and age) to liver transplant and that of transplanted patients. CONCLUSIONS: During the last 15 years several aspects of HCC scenario have changed, as well as its management. The improvement in patient survival observed in the last period was likely because of a larger use of thermal ablation with respect to the less effective alcohol injection and to an improved management of intermediate stage patients.