Network meta-analysis of pembrolizumab as monotherapy and in combination with chemotherapy for first-line treatment of recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma / Metanálise em rede comparativa de pembrolizumabe como monoterapia e em combinação com quimioterapia para tratamento de primeira linha de carcinoma de células escamosas da cabeça e pescoço recorrente ou metastático

Pembrolizumab monotherapy or in combination with chemotherapy is approved as first-line treatment in recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC) based on improved overall survival (OS) versus EXTREME regimen in the KEYNOTE-048 trial. The clinical outcomes of pembrolizumab were compared with other recommended first-line treatments in R/M HNSCC in this study through a Bayesian network meta-analysis. A systematic literature review was conducted in July 2022, from which six trials that matched the KEYNOTE-048 patient eligibility criteria were included in the network. The OS and progression-free survival (PFS) outcomes were compared in the approved pembrolizumab indication (i.e., total population for pembrolizumab in combination with chemotherapy and combined positive score [CPS] ≥ 1 population for pembrolizumab monotherapy). A significant OS improvement was observed for pembrolizumab in combination with chemotherapy and pembrolizumab monotherapy versus EXTREME regimen (hazard ratio, 95% credible interval: 0.72, 0.60-0.86; 0.73, 0.60-0.88), platinum+5- FU (0.58, 0.43-0.76; 0.58, 0.44-0.78), and platinum+paclitaxel (0.53, 0.35-0.79; 0.53, 0.35-0.81), respectively. A non-significant numeric trend in OS improvement was observed versus the TPEx regimen. PFS was comparable with most first-line treatments and was improved versus platinum+5-FU (0.48, 0.36-0.64; 0.59, 0.45-0.79). Additional analyses in higher CPS subgroups also showed consistent results. Overall, our study results showed an improvement in OS outcomes versus alternative first-line treatments, consistent with the findings of the KEYNOTE-048 trial. These data support using pembrolizumab as a suitable firstline treatment option in R/M HNSCC.

Pembrolizumabe em monoterapia ou em combinação com quimioterapia é aprovado como tratamento de primeira linha em carcinoma de células escamosas recorrente/metastático de cabeça e pescoço (CECCP R/M) com base na melhora da sobrevida global (OS), em comparação com o esquema EXTREME no estudo KEYNOTE-048. Esse estudo comparou os resultados clínicos de pembrolizumabe com outros tratamentos recomendados de primeira linha em CECCP R/M por meio de uma metanálise de rede bayesiana. Uma revisão sistemática da literatura foi conduzida em julho de 2022, a partir da qual seis ensaios clínicos que atendiam aos critérios de elegibilidade de pacientes do KEYNOTE-048 foram incluídos na rede. Os desfechos de OS e sobrevida livre de progressão (PFS) foram comparados na indicação de pembrolizumabe (população total para pembrolizumabe em combinação com quimioterapia e população com escore positivo combinado [CPS] ≥ 1 em monoterapia com pembrolizumabe). Foi observada melhora significativa na OS para pembrolizumabe em combinação com quimioterapia e monoterapia com pembrolizumabe versus o esquema EXTREME (razão de risco, intervalo de confiança de 95%: 0,72, 0,60-0,86; 0,73, 0,60-0,88), platina+5-FU (0,58, 0,43-0,76; 0,58, 0,44-0,78) e platina+paclitaxel (0,53, 0,35-0,79; 0,53, 0,35-0,81), respectivamente. Uma tendência numérica não significativa de melhoria na OS foi observada em relação ao esquema TPEx. A PFS foi comparável com a maioria dos tratamentos de primeira linha e melhor em relação à platina+5-FU (0,48, 0,36-0,64; 0,59, 0,45-0,79). Análises adicionais em subgrupos com CPS mais elevado também mostraram resultados consistentes. No geral, os resultados de nosso estudo mostraram melhora nos desfechos de OS em comparação aos tratamentos de primeira linha alternativos, consistentes com os achados do estudo KEYNOTE-048. Esses dados apoiam o uso de pembrolizumabe como opção de tratamento em primeira linha em pacientes com CECCP R/M.

Structured expert elicitation to inform long-term survival extrapolations using alternative parametric distributions: a case study of CAR T therapy for relapsed/ refractory multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to extend traditional parametric models used to extrapolate survival in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) by integrating individual-level patient data (IPD) from a clinical trial with estimates from experts regarding long-term survival. This was illustrated using a case study evaluating survival of patients with triple-class exposed relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma treated with the chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy idecabtagene vicleucel (ide-cel, bb2121) in KarMMa (a phase 2, single-arm trial). METHODS: The distribution of patients expected to be alive at 3, 5, and 10 years given the observed survival from KarMMa (13.3 months of follow-up) was elicited from 6 experts using the SHeffield ELicitation Framework. Quantities of interest were elicited from each expert individually, which informed the consensus elicitation including all experts. Estimates for each time point were assumed to follow a truncated normal distribution. These distributions were incorporated into survival models, which constrained the expected survival based on standard survival distributions informed by IPD from KarMMa. RESULTS: Models for ide-cel that combined KarMMa data with expert opinion were more consistent in terms of survival as well as mean survival at 10 years (survival point estimates under different parametric models were 29-33% at 3 years, 5-17% at 5 years, and 0-6% at 10 years) versus models with KarMMa data alone (11-39% at 3 years, 0-25% at 5 years, and 0-11% at 10 years). CONCLUSION: This case study demonstrates a transparent approach to integrate IPD from trials with expert opinion using traditional parametric distributions to ensure long-term survival extrapolations are clinically plausible.

Correlation Between Early Time-to-Event Outcomes and Overall Survival in Patients With Locally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma Receiving Definitive Chemoradiation Therapy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Overall survival (OS) is the most patient-relevant outcome in oncology; however, in early cancers, large sample sizes and extended follow-up durations are needed to detect statistically significant differences in OS between interventions. Use of early time-to-event outcomes as surrogates for OS can help facilitate faster approval of cancer therapies. In locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (LA-HNSCC), event-free survival (EFS) was previously evaluated as a surrogate outcome (Michiels 2009) and demonstrated a strong correlation with OS. The current study aimed to further assess the correlation between EFS and OS in LA-HNSCC using an updated systematic literature review (SLR) focusing on patients receiving definitive chemoradiation therapy (CRT). Methods: An SLR was conducted on May 27, 2021 to identify randomized controlled trials assessing radiotherapy alone or CRT in the target population. Studies assessing CRT and reporting hazard ratios (HRs) or Kaplan-Meier data for OS and EFS were eligible for the analysis. CRT included any systemic treatments administered concurrently or sequentially with radiation therapy. Trial-level EFS/OS correlations were assessed using regression models, and the relationship strength was measured with Pearson correlation coefficient (R). Correlations were assessed across all CRT trials and in trial subsets assessing concurrent CRT, sequential CRT, RT+cisplatin, targeted therapies and intensity-modulated RT. Subgroup analysis was conducted among trials with similar EFS definitions (i.e. EFS including disease progression and/or death as events) and longer length of follow-up (i.e.≥ 5 years). Results: The SLR identified 149 trials of which 31 were included in the analysis. A strong correlation between EFS and OS was observed in the overall analysis of all CRT trials (R=0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.93). Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analyses of trials assessing concurrent CRT (R=0.88), sequential CRT (R=0.83), RT+cisplatin (R=0.82), targeted therapies (R=0.83) and intensity-modulated RT (R=0.86), as well as in trials with similar EFS definitions (R=0.87), with longer follow-up (R=0.81). Conclusion: EFS was strongly correlated with OS in this trial-level analysis. Future research using individual patient-level data can further investigate if EFS could be considered a suitable early clinical endpoint for evaluation of CRT regimens in LA-HNSCC patients receiving definitive CRT.

Indirect treatment comparison of idecabtagene vicleucel versus conventional care in triple-class exposed multiple myeloma.

Aim: To compare the efficacy of idecabtagene vicleucel (ide-cel, bb2121) versus conventional care (CC) in triple-class exposed relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) patients. Patients & methods: A matching-adjusted indirect comparison was conducted using individual patient-level data from the pivotal, phase II, single-arm KarMMa trial (NCT03361748) and aggregate-level data from MAMMOTH, the largest independent observational study of CC in heavily pretreated RRMM patients. Results: Ide-cel improved overall response rate (odds ratio: 5.30; 95% CI: 2.96-9.51), progression-free survival (hazard ratio: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.36-0.70) and overall survival (hazard ratio: 0.37; 95% CI: 0.25-0.56) versus CC. Conclusion: These results suggest ide-cel offers improvements in clinical outcomes relative to CC in this heavily pretreated RRMM population.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cemiplimab vs pembrolizumab for treatment of advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Most cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas (CSCCs) can be treated with surgical excision or radiation; however, approximately 1% of patients develop advanced disease. In 2018, the FDA approved cemiplimab-rwlc as the first programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) monoclonal antibody for the treatment of patients with metastatic CSCC or locally advanced CSCC who are not candidates for curative surgery or curative radiation. In June 2020, pembrolizumab, another PD-1 monoclonal antibody, was approved for the treatment of patients with recurrent or metastatic CSCC who are not candidates for curative surgery or radiation. We previously reported on the cost-effectiveness of cemiplimab vs historical standard of care for the treatment of advanced CSCC from a US perspective. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of cemiplimab vs pembrolizumab for patients with advanced CSCC in the United States. METHODS: A "partitioned survival" framework was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of cemiplimab vs pembrolizumab. Clinical inputs were based on the most recent data cut of the phase 2 trials for cemiplimab (EMPOWER-CSCC-1; NCT02760498) and pembrolizumab (KEYNOTE-629). Progression-free survival and overall survival were extrapolated using parametric models until all patients had progressed or died. Health state utilities were derived from data collected in the EMPOWER-CSCC-1 trial. Costs included drug acquisition, drug administration, disease management, terminal care, and adverse events and were based on published 2020 US list prices. To assess model uncertainty, 1-way sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted, alongside scenario analyses evaluating key modeling assumptions. RESULTS: In the base case, cemiplimab resulted in an incremental gain of 3.44 life-years (discounted) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $130,329 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) vs pembrolizumab. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/QALY, PSA indicated a 71% probability that cemiplimab is cost-effective when compared with pembrolizumab. Scenario analysis resulted in ICERs ranging from $115,909 to $187,374. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that cemiplimab is a cost-effective treatment for patients with advanced CSCC, compared with pembrolizumab. These results should be interpreted cautiously in the absence of head-to-head trials; however, in the absence of such data, these results can be used to inform health care decisions over resource allocation. DISCLOSURES: This study was supported by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc., and Sanofi. Paul, Cope, Keeping, Mojebi, and Ayers are employees of PRECISIONheor, which received funding to produce this work. Chen, Kuznik, and Xu are employees and stockholders of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Sasane is an employee and stockholder of Sanofi, Inc. Konidaris, Atsou, and Guyot are employees of Sanofi, Inc. The authors were responsible for all content and editorial decisions and received no honoraria related to the development of this publication.

Matching adjusted indirect comparisons of efficacy outcomes for idecabtagene vicleucel (ide-cel, bb2121) versus selinexor + dexamethasone and belantamab mafodotin in relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma.

Idecabtagene vicleucel (ide-cel, bb2121), a chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy, has been investigated in patients with relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) who have received an immunomodulatory drug, proteasome inhibitor, and anti-CD38 antibody in the single-arm phase 2 KarMMa clinical trial. Two therapies with distinct mechanisms of action - selinexor plus dexamethasone (Sd) and belantamab mafodotin (BM) - are currently approved in the United States for heavily pretreated patients, including those who are triple-class refractory. To compare ide-cel versus Sd and ide-cel versus BM, matching-adjusted indirect comparisons were performed. Ide-cel extended progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) versus both Sd and BM (hazard ratio (HR); 95% confidence interval (CI)). PFS: ide-cel versus Sd, 0.46; 0.28-0.75; ide-cel versus BM, 0.45; 0.27-0.77. OS: ide-cel versus Sd, 0.23; 0.13-0.42; ide-cel versus BM, 0.35; 0.14-0.87. These results suggest ide-cel offers clinically meaningful improvements over currently approved regimens for patients with heavily pretreated RRMM.

Assessing the Value of Cemiplimab for Adults With Advanced Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of cemiplimab in patients with advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC) from a payer perspective in the United States. METHODS: A partitioned survival model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of cemiplimab versus historical standard of care (SOC). All inputs were identified based on a systematic literature review, supplemented by expert opinion where necessary. Clinical inputs for cemiplimab were based on individual patient data from a cemiplimab phase 2 single-arm trial (NCT27060498). For SOC, analysis was based on a pooled analysis of single-arm clinical trials and retrospective studies evaluating chemotherapy and epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitors (cetuximab, erlotinib, and gefitinib) identified via a systematic literature review (6 of the 27 included studies). Overall survival and progression-free survival were extrapolated over a lifetime horizon. Costs were included for drug acquisition, drug administration, management of adverse events, subsequent therapy, disease management, and terminal care. Unit costs were based on published 2019 US list prices. RESULTS: In the base case, cemiplimab versus SOC resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $99 447 per quality adjusted-life year (QALY), where incremental costs and QALYs were $372 108 and 3.74, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150 000/QALY, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggests a 90% probability that cemiplimab is cost-effective compared to SOC. Scenario analyses resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from $90 590 to $148 738. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with historical SOC, cemiplimab is a cost-effective use of US payer resources for the treatment of advanced CSCC and is expected to provide value for money.

Comparative efficacy of cemiplimab versus other systemic treatments for advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma.

Aim: To estimate the comparative efficacy of cemiplimab, a programmed cell death protein 1 inhibitor, versus EGFR inhibitors, pembrolizumab and platinum-based chemotherapy in terms of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival. Patients & methods: We performed an indirect treatment comparison of cemiplimab and other available systemic therapies for patients with advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma. Results: Cemiplimab was associated with benefits in OS (hazard ratios range: 0.07-0.52) and progression-free survival (hazard ratios range: 0.30-0.67) versus EGFR inhibitors and pembrolizumab (data from KEYNOTE-629). Cemiplimab was more efficacious versus platinum-based chemotherapy in terms of OS. Conclusion: Cemiplimab may offer improvements in survival for advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma patients compared with existing systemic therapies.

Comparative effectiveness of nivolumab versus clinical practice for advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer.

Aim: To determine the effectiveness of nivolumab compared with routine clinical practice (RCP) for patients with gastric or gastroesophageal cancer refractory to, or intolerant of, two or more previous regimens, using real-world electronic patient records from a US population, a single-arm trial (CheckMate 032) and a randomized controlled trial in an Asian setting (ATTRACTION-2). Materials & methods: A simulated treatment comparison was conducted to predict overall survival for patients treated with nivolumab compared with RCP in the USA. Results: Results of the indirect simulated treatment comparison suggest that nivolumab is associated with a 50% reduction in the risk of all-cause mortality relative to RCP (Hazard ratio: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.36, 0.68). Conclusion: The survival benefit of nivolumab may extend more generally to the USA.

Integrating expert opinion with clinical trial data to extrapolate long-term survival: a case study of CAR-T therapy for children and young adults with relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

BACKGROUND: Long-term clinical outcomes are necessary to assess the cost-effectiveness of new treatments over a lifetime horizon. Without long-term clinical trial data, current practice to extrapolate survival beyond the trial period involves fitting alternative parametric models to the observed survival. Choosing the most appropriate model is based on how well each model fits to the observed data. Supplementing trial data with feedback from experts may improve the plausibility of survival extrapolations. We demonstrate the feasibility of formally integrating long-term survival estimates from experts with empirical clinical trial data to provide more credible extrapolated survival curves. METHODS: The case study involved relapsed or refractory B-cell pediatric and young adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia (r/r pALL) regarding long-term survival for tisagenlecleucel (chimeric antigen receptor T-cell [CAR-T]) with evidence from the phase II ELIANA trial. Seven pediatric oncologists and hematologists experienced with CAR-T therapies were recruited. Relevant evidence regarding r/r pALL and tisagenlecleucel provided a common basis for expert judgments. Survival rates and related uncertainty at 2, 3, 4, and 5 years were elicited from experts using a web-based application adapted from Sheffield Elicitation Framework. Estimates from each expert were combined with observed data using time-to-event parametric models that accounted for experts' uncertainty, producing an overall distribution of survival over time. These results were validated based on longer term follow-up (median duration 24.2 months) from ELIANA following the elicitation. RESULTS: Extrapolated survival curves based on ELIANA trial without expert information were highly uncertain, differing substantially depending on the model choice. Survival estimates between 2 to 5 years from individual experts varied with a fair amount of uncertainty. However, incorporating expert estimates improved the precision in the extrapolated survival curves. Predictions from a Gompertz model, which experts believed was most appropriate, suggested that more than half of the ELIANA patients treated with tisagenlecleucel will survive up to 5 years. Expert estimates at 24 months were validated by longer follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an example of how expert opinion can be elicited and synthesized with observed survival data using a transparent and formal procedure, capturing expert uncertainty, and ensuring projected long-term survival is clinically plausible.

Indirect comparison of nivolumab ± ipilimumab (CheckMate 032) versus other treatments for recurrent small-cell lung cancer.

Aim: To estimate the comparative efficacy of nivolumab ± ipilimumab versus alternative treatments for small-cell lung cancer after at least one prior line of chemotherapy. Materials & methods: A systematic literature review identified six randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that could be connected in a network. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves from these RCTs were synthesized using network meta-analysis models. Aggregate-level matching was used to connect CheckMate 032 to the RCTs. Results: CheckMate 032 was connected to the network by Amrubicin Clinical Trial-1. Nivolumab ± ipilimumab had a more durable tumor response and more favorable long-term survival versus topotecan via intravenous and versus amrubicin. Conclusion: Compared with chemotherapies for recurrent small-cell lung cancer, nivolumab ± ipilimumab improves response duration, which may translate to long-term survival benefits.

A nurse-coordinated model of care versus usual care for stage 3/4 chronic kidney disease in the community: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: It is unclear how to optimally care for chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study compares a new coordinated model to usual care for CKD. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: A randomized trial in nephrology clinics and the community included 474 patients with median estimated GFR (eGFR) 42 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) identified by laboratory-based case finding compared care coordinated by a general practitioner (controls) with care by a nurse-coordinated team including a nephrologist (intervention) for a median (interquartile range [IQR]) of 742 days. 32% were diabetic, 60% had cardiovascular disease, and proteinuria was minimal. Guided by protocols, the intervention team targeted risk factors for adverse kidney and cardiovascular outcomes. Serial eGFR and clinical events were tracked. RESULTS: The average decline in eGFR over 20 months was -1.9 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). eGFR declined by ≥4 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) within 20 months in 28 (17%) intervention patients versus 23 (13.9%) control patients. Control of BP, LDL, and diabetes were comparable across groups. In the intervention group there was a trend to greater use of renin-angiotensin blockers and more use of statins in those with initial LDL >2.5 mmol/L. Treatment was rarely required for anemia, acidosis, or disordered mineral metabolism. Clinical events occurred in 5.2% per year. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with stage 3/4 CKD identified through community laboratories largely had nonprogressive kidney disease but had cardiovascular risk. Over a median of 24 months, the nurse-coordinated team did not affect rate of GFR decline or control of most risk factors compared with usual care.