Development and validation of a new algorithm for improved cardiovascular risk prediction.

QRISK algorithms use data from millions of people to help clinicians identify individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Here, we derive and externally validate a new algorithm, which we have named QR4, that incorporates novel risk factors to estimate 10-year CVD risk separately for men and women. Health data from 9.98 million and 6.79 million adults from the United Kingdom were used for derivation and validation of the algorithm, respectively. Cause-specific Cox models were used to develop models to predict CVD risk, and the performance of QR4 was compared with version 3 of QRISK, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores. We identified seven novel risk factors in models for both men and women (brain cancer, lung cancer, Down syndrome, blood cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, oral cancer and learning disability) and two additional novel risk factors in women (pre-eclampsia and postnatal depression). On external validation, QR4 had a higher C statistic than QRISK3 in both women (0.835 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.833-0.837) and 0.831 (95% CI, 0.829-0.832) for QR4 and QRISK3, respectively) and men (0.814 (95% CI, 0.812-0.816) and 0.812 (95% CI, 0.810-0.814) for QR4 and QRISK3, respectively). QR4 was also more accurate than the ASCVD and SCORE2 risk scores in both men and women. The QR4 risk score identifies new risk groups and provides superior CVD risk prediction in the United Kingdom compared with other international scoring systems for CVD risk.

Blood eosinophil-guided oral prednisolone for COPD exacerbations in primary care in the UK (STARR2): a non-inferiority, multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Systemic glucocorticoids are recommended for use in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations; however, there is increased harm associated with their use. We hypothesised that the use of eosinophil biomarker-directed oral prednisolone therapy at the time of an exacerbation of COPD was effective at reducing prednisolone use without affecting adverse outcomes. METHODS: The studying acute exacerbations and response (STARR2) study was a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted in 14 primary care practices in the UK. We included adults (aged ≥40 years), who were current or former smokers (with at least a 10 pack year smoking history) with a diagnosis of COPD, defined as a post-bronchodilator FEV1/forced vital capacity ratio of less than 0·7 previously recorded by the primary care physician, and a history of at least one exacerbation in the previous 12 months requiring systemic corticosteroids with or without antibiotics. All study staff and participants were masked to study group allocation and to treatment allocation. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to blood eosinophil-directed treatment (BET; to receive oral prednisolone 30 mg once daily if eosinophil count was high [≥2%] or placebo if eosinophil count was low [<2%]) or to standard care treatment (ST; to receive prednisolone 30 mg once daily irrespective of the point-of-care eosinophil result). Treatment was prescribed for 14 days and all patients also received antibiotics. The primary outcome was the rate of treatment failure, defined as any need for re-treatment with antibiotics or steroids, hospitalisation for any cause, or death, assessed at 30 days after exacerbation in the modified intention-to-treat population. Participants were eligible for re-randomisation at further exacerbations (with a maximum of four exacerbations per participant). A safety analysis was conducted on all randomly assigned participants. Although designed as a superiority trial, after identification of an error in the randomisation code before data lock the study converted to show non-inferiority. An upper margin of 1·105 for the 95% CI was defined as the non-inferiority margin. This study was registered with EudraCT, 2017-001586-24, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between Nov 6, 2017, and April 30, 2020, 308 participants were recruited from 14 general practices. 144 exacerbations (73 in the BET group and 71 in the ST group) from 93 participants (mean age 70 years [range 46-84] and mean percent predicted FEV1 60·9% [SD 19·4]; 52 [56%] male and 41 [44%] female; ethnicity data was not collected]) were included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis. There were 14 (19%) treatment failures at 30 days post-exacerbation in the BET group and 23 (32%) in the ST group; we found a large non-significant estimated effect between BET and ST (RR 0·60 [95% CI 0·33-1·04]; p=0·070) in reducing treatment failures after a COPD exacerbation. The non-inferiority analysis supported that BET was non-inferior to ST. Frequency of adverse events were similar between the study groups; glycosuria (2/102 [2%] in BET group and 1/101 [1%] in the ST group) and hospital admission for COPD exacerbation (2/102 [2%] in BET group and 1/101 [1%] in the ST group) were the two most common adverse events in both groups. No deaths occurred in the study. INTERPRETATION: Blood eosinophil-directed prednisolone therapy at the time of an acute exacerbation of COPD is non-inferior to standard care and can be used to safely reduce systemic glucocorticoid use in clinical practice. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Predictive modeling of COPD exacerbation rates using baseline risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Demographic and disease characteristics have been associated with the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Using previously collected multinational clinical trial data, we developed models that use baseline risk factors to predict an individual's rate of moderate/severe exacerbations in the next year on various pharmacological treatments for COPD. METHODS: Exacerbation data from 20,054 patients in the ETHOS, KRONOS, TELOS, SOPHOS, and PINNACLE-1, PINNACLE-2, and PINNACLE-4 studies were pooled. Machine learning was used to identify predictors of moderate/severe exacerbation rates. Important factors were selected for generalized linear modeling, further informed by backward variable selection. An independent test set was held back for validation. RESULTS: Prior exacerbations, eosinophil count, forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent predicted, prior maintenance treatments, reliever medication use, sex, COPD Assessment Test score, smoking status, and region were significant predictors of exacerbation risk, with response to inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) increasing with higher eosinophil counts, more prior exacerbations, or additional prior treatments. Model fit was similar in the training and test set. Prediction metrics were ~10% better in the full model than in a simplified model based only on eosinophil count, prior exacerbations, and ICS use. CONCLUSION: These models predicting rates of moderate/severe exacerbations can be applied to a broad range of patients with COPD in terms of airway obstruction, eosinophil counts, exacerbation history, symptoms, and treatment history. Understanding the relative and absolute risks related to these factors may be useful for clinicians in evaluating the benefit: risk ratio of various treatment decisions for individual patients.Clinical trials registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02465567, NCT02497001, NCT02766608, NCT02727660, NCT01854645, NCT01854658, NCT02343458, NCT03262012, NCT02536508, and NCT01970878).

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity, mortality, and health-care use worldwide. COPD is caused by exposure to inhaled noxious particles, notably tobacco smoke and pollutants. However, the broad range of factors that increase the risk of development and progression of COPD throughout the life course are increasingly being recognised. Innovations in omics and imaging techniques have provided greater insight into disease pathobiology, which might result in advances in COPD prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Although few novel treatments have been approved for COPD in the past 5 years, advances have been made in targeting existing therapies to specific subpopulations using new biomarker-based strategies. Additionally, COVID-19 has undeniably affected individuals with COPD, who are not only at higher risk for severe disease manifestations than healthy individuals but also negatively affected by interruptions in health-care delivery and social isolation. This Seminar reviews COPD with an emphasis on recent advances in epidemiology, pathophysiology, imaging, diagnosis, and treatment.

Early Th2 inflammation in the upper respiratory mucosa as a predictor of severe COVID-19 and modulation by early treatment with inhaled corticosteroids: a mechanistic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Community-based clinical trials of the inhaled corticosteroid budesonide in early COVID-19 have shown improved patient outcomes. We aimed to understand the inflammatory mechanism of budesonide in the treatment of early COVID-19. METHODS: The STOIC trial was a randomised, open label, parallel group, phase 2 clinical intervention trial where patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive usual care (as needed antipyretics were only available treatment) or inhaled budesonide at a dose of 800 µg twice a day plus usual care. For this experimental analysis, we investigated the nasal mucosal inflammatory response in patients recruited to the STOIC trial and in a cohort of SARS-CoV-2-negative healthy controls, recruited from a long-term observational data collection study at the University of Oxford. In patients with SARS-CoV-2 who entered the STOIC study, nasal epithelial lining fluid was sampled at day of randomisation (day 0) and at day 14 following randomisation, blood samples were also collected at day 28 after randomisation. Nasal epithelial lining fluid and blood samples were collected from the SARS-CoV-2 negative control cohort. Inflammatory mediators in the nasal epithelial lining fluid and blood were assessed for a range of viral response proteins, and innate and adaptive response markers using Meso Scale Discovery enzyme linked immunoassay panels. These samples were used to investigate the evolution of inflammation in the early COVID-19 disease course and assess the effect of budesonide on inflammation. FINDINGS: 146 participants were recruited in the STOIC trial (n=73 in the usual care group; n=73 in the budesonide group). 140 nasal mucosal samples were available at day 0 (randomisation) and 122 samples at day 14. At day 28, whole blood was collected from 123 participants (62 in the budesonide group and 61 in the usual care group). 20 blood or nasal samples were collected from healthy controls. In early COVID-19 disease, there was an enhanced inflammatory airway response with the induction of an anti-viral and T-helper 1 and 2 (Th1/2) inflammatory response compared with healthy individuals. Individuals with COVID-19 who clinically deteriorated (ie, who met the primary outcome) showed an early blunted respiratory interferon response and pronounced and persistent Th2 inflammation, mediated by CC chemokine ligand (CCL)-24, compared with those with COVID-19 who did not clinically deteriorate. Over time, the natural course of COVID-19 showed persistently high respiratory interferon concentrations and elevated concentrations of the eosinophil chemokine, CCL-11, despite clinical symptom improvement. There was persistent systemic inflammation after 28 days following COVID-19, including elevated concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, tumour necrosis factor-α, and CCL-11. Budesonide treatment modulated inflammation in the nose and blood and was shown to decrease IL-33 and increase CCL17. The STOIC trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04416399. INTERPRETATION: An initial blunted interferon response and heightened T-helper 2 inflammatory response in the respiratory tract following SARS-CoV-2 infection could be a biomarker for predicting the development of severe COVID-19 disease. The clinical benefit of inhaled budesonide in early COVID-19 is likely to be as a consequence of its inflammatory modulatory effect, suggesting efficacy by reducing epithelial damage and an improved T-cell response. FUNDING: Oxford National Institute of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre and AstraZeneca.

A Comprehensive Analysis of the Stability of Blood Eosinophil Levels.

Rationale: Blood eosinophil counts are used to inform diagnosis/management of eosinophilic asthma. Objectives: Examine blood eosinophil variability and identify factors affecting eosinophil levels to inform clinical interpretation. Methods:Post hoc analysis to understand eosinophil variability using data from four randomized controlled asthma trials. We examined 1) influence of intrinsic/extrinsic factors (comorbidities, medication, and patient history) using baseline data (n = 2,612); 2) monthly variation using placebo-treated patient data (n = 713); 3) stability of eosinophil classification (<150, 150-299, and ⩾300 cells/µl) in placebo-treated patients with monthly measurements over a 1-year period (n = 751); and 4) impact of technical factors (laboratory-to-laboratory differences and time from collection to analysis). Results: Of intrinsic/extrinsic factors examined, nasal polyps increased eosinophil levels by 38%, whereas current smoking decreased levels by 23%. Substantial seasonal differences in eosinophil counts were observed, with differences of ∼20% between July and January. Eosinophil levels between 150 and 299 cells/µl were least stable, with 44% of patients remaining in the same classification for seven of 10 measurements versus 59% and 66% of patients in the <150 and ⩾300 cells/µl subgroups, respectively. Measurements at different laboratories showed high association (Spearman's correlation coefficient, R = 0.89); however, eosinophil counts were reduced, with longer time from collection to analysis, and variability increased with increasing eosinophil counts. Conclusions: Several intrinsic, extrinsic, and technical factors may influence, and should be considered in, clinical interpretation of eosinophil counts. Additionally, a single measurement may not be sufficient when using eosinophil counts for diagnosis/management of eosinophilic asthma.

Infection, inflammation and intervention: mechanistic modelling of epithelial cells in COVID-19.

While the pathological mechanisms in COVID-19 illness are still poorly understood, it is increasingly clear that high levels of pro-inflammatory mediators play a major role in clinical deterioration in patients with severe disease. Current evidence points to a hyperinflammatory state as the driver of respiratory compromise in severe COVID-19 disease, with a clinical trajectory resembling acute respiratory distress syndrome, but how this 'runaway train' inflammatory response emerges and is maintained is not known. Here, we present the first mathematical model of lung hyperinflammation due to SARS-CoV-2 infection. This model is based on a network of purported mechanistic and physiological pathways linking together five distinct biochemical species involved in the inflammatory response. Simulations of our model give rise to distinct qualitative classes of COVID-19 patients: (i) individuals who naturally clear the virus, (ii) asymptomatic carriers and (iii-v) individuals who develop a case of mild, moderate, or severe illness. These findings, supported by a comprehensive sensitivity analysis, point to potential therapeutic interventions to prevent the emergence of hyperinflammation. Specifically, we suggest that early intervention with a locally acting anti-inflammatory agent (such as inhaled corticosteroids) may effectively blockade the pathological hyperinflammatory reaction as it emerges.

Inflammatory Endotype-associated Airway Microbiome in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Clinical Stability and Exacerbations: A Multicohort Longitudinal Analysis.

Rationale: Understanding the role of the airway microbiome in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) inflammatory endotypes may help to develop microbiome-based diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. Objectives: To understand the association of the airway microbiome with neutrophilic and eosinophilic COPD at stability and during exacerbations. Methods: An integrative analysis was performed on 1,706 sputum samples collected longitudinally from 510 patients with COPD recruited at four UK sites of the BEAT-COPD (Biomarkers to Target Antibiotic and Systemic COPD), COPDMAP (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Medical Research Council/Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry), and AERIS (Acute Exacerbation and Respiratory Infections in COPD) cohorts. The microbiome was analyzed using COPDMAP and AERIS as a discovery data set and BEAT-COPD as a validation data set. Measurements and Main Results: The airway microbiome in neutrophilic COPD was heterogeneous, with two primary community types differentiated by the predominance of Haemophilus. The Haemophilus-predominant subgroup had elevated sputum IL-1ß and TNFα (tumor necrosis factor α) and was relatively stable over time. The other neutrophilic subgroup with a balanced microbiome profile had elevated sputum and serum IL-17A and was temporally dynamic. Patients in this state at stability were susceptible to the greatest microbiome shifts during exacerbations. This subgroup can temporally switch to both neutrophilic Haemophilus-predominant and eosinophilic states that were otherwise mutually exclusive. Time-series analysis on the microbiome showed that the temporal trajectories of Campylobacter and Granulicatella were indicative of intrapatient switches from neutrophilic to eosinophilic inflammation, in track with patient sputum eosinophilia over time. Network analysis revealed distinct host-microbiome interaction patterns among neutrophilic Haemophilus-predominant, neutrophilic balanced microbiome, and eosinophilic subgroups. Conclusions: The airway microbiome can stratify neutrophilic COPD into subgroups that justify different therapies. Neutrophilic and eosinophilic COPD are interchangeable in some patients. Monitoring temporal variability of the airway microbiome may track patient inflammatory status over time.

Intravenous iron and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Increased iron availability modifies cardiorespiratory function in healthy volunteers and improves exercise capacity and quality of life in patients with heart failure or pulmonary hypertension. We hypothesised that intravenous iron would produce improvements in oxygenation, exercise capacity and quality of life in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: We performed a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial in 48 participants with COPD (mean±SD: age 69±8 years, haemoglobin 144.8±13.2 g/L, ferritin 97.1±70.0 µg/L, transferrin saturation 31.3%±15.2%; GOLD grades II-IV), each of whom received a single dose of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose (FCM; 15 mg/kg bodyweight) or saline placebo. The primary endpoint was peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) at rest after 1 week. The secondary endpoints included daily SpO2, overnight SpO2, exercise SpO2, 6 min walk distance, symptom and quality of life scores, serum iron indices, spirometry, echocardiographic measures, and exacerbation frequency. RESULTS: SpO2 was unchanged 1 week after FCM administration (difference between groups 0.8%, 95% CI -0.2% to 1.7%). However, in secondary analyses, exercise capacity increased significantly after FCM administration, compared with placebo, with a mean difference in 6 min walk distance of 12.6 m (95% CI 1.6 to 23.5 m). Improvements of ≥40 m were observed in 29.2% of iron-treated and 0% of placebo-treated participants after 1 week (p=0.009). Modified MRC Dyspnoea Scale score was also significantly lower after FCM, and fewer participants reported scores ≥2 in the FCM group, compared with placebo (33.3% vs 66.7%, p=0.02). No significant differences were observed in other secondary endpoints. Adverse event rates were similar between groups, except for hypophosphataemia, which occurred more frequently after FCM (91.7% vs 8.3%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: FCM did not improve oxygenation over 8 weeks in patients with COPD. However, this treatment was well tolerated and produced improvements in exercise capacity and functional limitation caused by breathlessness. These effects on secondary endpoints require confirmation in future studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN09143837.

What will Happen in the World of COPD 2030?

2030 may seem to be a long way into the future, but it's not. We live in a world of relentless rapid change in modern medicine and our approach to our patients with chronic diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) will need to evolve at speed. This review looks at what may occur in society and medicine that will influence the way we manage COPD. The article is the opinion of the authors and is based upon current research at the cutting edge of management with a degree of gazing into a dimly lit crystal ball. COPD is a current epidemic, and this is likely to continue. Legislative efforts to reduce smoking will continue and hopefully accelerate, but this will not be globally accepted or successful. Technological advances will occur that will lead to miniaturization and the rise of near patient testing. This itself will enable a personalised approach to management with the ability to measure rapidly biomarkers which will direct therapy. The blood eosinophil is the most promising of these and is available now. New developments in the identification of disease clusters and phenotypes will also enhance a more personalised approach. Through both these epidemiological studies and also new developments in the understanding of basic mechanisms it is hoped that in the future patients will be given treatments that may fundamentally change the prognosis of COPD. Small molecule and antibody directed therapies may, if given early enough, stop and even possibly reverse the effects of COPD on cells and organs. Of course, the most important step which is achievable now is to ban all tobacco-based products from the world.

Synergistic activation of pro-inflammatory type-2 CD8+ T lymphocytes by lipid mediators in severe eosinophilic asthma.

Human type-2 CD8+ T cells are a cell population with potentially important roles in allergic disease. We investigated this in the context of severe asthma with persistent airway eosinophilia-a phenotype associated with high exacerbation risk and responsiveness to type-2 cytokine-targeted therapies. In two independent cohorts we show that, in contrast to Th2 cells, type-2 cytokine-secreting CD8+CRTH2+ (Tc2) cells are enriched in blood and airways in severe eosinophilic asthma. Concentrations of prostaglandin D2 (PGD2) and cysteinyl leukotriene E4 (LTE4) are also increased in the airways of the same group of patients. In vitro PGD2 and LTE4 function synergistically to trigger Tc2 cell recruitment and activation in a TCR-independent manner. These lipids regulate diverse genes in Tc2 cells inducing type-2 cytokines and many other pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines, which could contribute to eosinophilia. These findings are consistent with an important innate-like role for human Tc2 cells in severe eosinophilic asthma and suggest a potential target for therapeutic intervention in this and other diseases.

Predictors of exacerbation risk and response to budesonide in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a post-hoc analysis of three randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: The peripheral blood eosinophil count might help identify those patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who will experience fewer exacerbations when taking inhaled corticosteroids (ICS). Previous post-hoc analyses have proposed eosinophil cutoffs that are both arbitrary and limited in evaluating complex interactions of treatment response. We modelled eosinophil count as a continuous variable to determine the characteristics that determine both exacerbation risk and clinical response to ICS in patients with COPD. METHODS: We analysed data from three AstraZeneca randomised controlled trials of budesonide-formoterol in patients with COPD with a history of exacerbations and available blood eosinophil counts. Patients with any history of asthma were excluded. Negative binomial regression analysis was done using splines for modelling of continuous variables to study the primary outcome of annual exacerbation rate adjusted for exposure time and study design. The trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00206167, NCT00206154, and NCT00419744. FINDINGS: 4528 patients were studied. A non-linear increase in exacerbations occurred with increasing eosinophil count in patients who received formoterol alone. At eosinophil counts of 0·10 × 109 cells per L or more, a significant treatment effect was recorded for exacerbation reduction with budesonide-formoterol compared with formoterol alone (rate ratio 0·75, 95% CI 0·57-0·99; pinteraction=0·015). Interactions were observed between eosinophil count and the treatment effects of budesonide-formoterol over formoterol on St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (pinteraction=0·0043) and pre-bronchodilator FEV1 (linear effect p<0·0001, pinteraction=0·067). Only eosinophil count and smoking history were independent predictors of response to budesonide-formoterol in reducing exacerbations (eosinophil count, pinteraction=0·013; smoking history, pinteraction=0·015). INTERPRETATION: In patients with COPD treated with formoterol, blood eosinophil count predicts exacerbation risk and the clinical response to ICS. FUNDING: AstraZeneca.

Impaired P2X1 Receptor-Mediated Adhesion in Eosinophils from Asthmatic Patients.

Eosinophils play an important role in the pathogenesis of asthma and can be activated by extracellular nucleotides released following cell damage or inflammation. For example, increased ATP concentrations were reported in bronchoalveolar lavage fluids of asthmatic patients. Although eosinophils are known to express several subtypes of P2 receptors for extracellular nucleotides, their function and contribution to asthma remain unclear. In this article, we show that transcripts for P2X1, P2X4, and P2X5 receptors were expressed in healthy and asthmatic eosinophils. The P2X receptor agonist α,ß-methylene ATP (α,ß-meATP; 10 µM) evoked rapidly activating and desensitizing inward currents (peak 18 ± 3 pA/pF at -60 mV) in healthy eosinophils, typical of P2X1 homomeric receptors, which were abolished by the selective P2X1 antagonist NF449 (1 µM) (3 ± 2 pA/pF). α,ß-meATP-evoked currents were smaller in eosinophils from asthmatic patients (8 ± 2 versus 27 ± 5 pA/pF for healthy) but were enhanced following treatment with a high concentration of the nucleotidase apyrase (17 ± 5 pA/pF for 10 IU/ml and 11 ± 3 pA/pF for 0.32 IU/ml), indicating that the channels are partially desensitized by extracellular nucleotides. α,ß-meATP (10 µM) increased the expression of CD11b activated form in eosinophils from healthy, but not asthmatic, donors (143 ± 21% and 108 ± 11% of control response, respectively). Furthermore, α,ß-meATP increased healthy (18 ± 2% compared with control 10 ± 1%) but not asthmatic (13 ± 1% versus 10 ± 0% for control) eosinophil adhesion. Healthy human eosinophils express functional P2X1 receptors whose activation leads to eosinophil αMß2 integrin-dependent adhesion. P2X1 responses are constitutively reduced in asthmatic compared with healthy eosinophils, probably as the result of an increase in extracellular nucleotide concentration.

Exome-wide analysis of rare coding variation identifies novel associations with COPD and airflow limitation in MOCS3, IFIT3 and SERPINA12.

BACKGROUND: Several regions of the genome have shown to be associated with COPD in genome-wide association studies of common variants. OBJECTIVE: To determine rare and potentially functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with the risk of COPD and severity of airflow limitation. METHODS: 3226 current or former smokers of European ancestry with lung function measures indicative of Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2 COPD or worse were genotyped using an exome array. An analysis of risk of COPD was carried out using ever smoking controls (n=4784). Associations with %predicted FEV1 were tested in cases. We followed-up signals of interest (p<10(-5)) in independent samples from a subset of the UK Biobank population and also undertook a more powerful discovery study by meta-analysing the exome array data and UK Biobank data for variants represented on both arrays. RESULTS: Among the associated variants were two in regions previously unreported for COPD; a low frequency non-synonymous SNP in MOCS3 (rs7269297, pdiscovery=3.08×10(-6), preplication=0.019) and a rare SNP in IFIT3, which emerged in the meta-analysis (rs140549288, pmeta=8.56×10(-6)). In the meta-analysis of % predicted FEV1 in cases, the strongest association was shown for a splice variant in a previously unreported region, SERPINA12 (rs140198372, pmeta=5.72×10(-6)). We also confirmed previously reported associations with COPD risk at MMP12, HHIP, GPR126 and CHRNA5. No associations in novel regions reached a stringent exome-wide significance threshold (p<3.7×10(-7)). CONCLUSIONS: This study identified several associations with the risk of COPD and severity of airflow limitation, including novel regions MOCS3, IFIT3 and SERPINA12, which warrant further study.

Association between pathogens detected using quantitative polymerase chain reaction with airway inflammation in COPD at stable state and exacerbations.

BACKGROUND: Relationships between airway inflammation and respiratory potentially pathogenic microorganisms (PPMs) quantified using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) in subjects with COPD are unclear. Our aim was to evaluate mediators of airway inflammation and their association with PPMs in subjects with COPD at stable state and during exacerbations. METHODS: Sputum from 120 stable subjects with COPD was analyzed for bacteriology (colony-forming units; total 16S; and qPCR targeting Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, and Streptococcus pneumoniae), differential cell counts, and inflammatory mediators using the Meso-Scale Discovery Platform. Subjects were classified as colonized if any PPM was identified above the threshold of detection by qPCR. Symptoms were quantified using the visual analog scale. RESULTS: At stable state, 60% of subjects were qPCR positive for H influenzae, 48% for M catarrhalis, and 28% for S pneumoniae. Elevated sputum concentrations of IL-1ß, IL-10, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α were detected in samples qPCR positive for either H influenzae or M catarrhalis. Bacterial loads of H influenzae positively correlated with IL-1ß, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-α, and symptoms; and M catarrhalis correlated with IL-10 and TNF-α. H influenzae qPCR bacterial load was an independent predictor of sputum TNF-α and IL-1ß. In 55 subjects with paired exacerbation data, qPCR bacterial load fold change at exacerbation in M catarrhalis but not H influenzae correlated to changes in sputum TNF-α and IL-1ß concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: At stable state, H influenzae is associated with increased airway inflammation in COPD. The relationship between bacterial load changes of specific pathogens and airway inflammation at exacerbation and recovery warrants further investigation.

COPD exacerbation severity and frequency is associated with impaired macrophage efferocytosis of eosinophils.

BACKGROUND: Eosinophilic airway inflammation is observed in 10-30% of COPD subjects. Whether increased eosinophils or impairment in their clearance by macrophages is associated with the severity and frequency of exacerbations is unknown. METHODS: We categorised 103 COPD subjects into 4 groups determined by the upper limit of normal for their cytoplasmic macrophage red hue (<6%), an indirect measure of macrophage efferocytosis of eosinophils, and area under the curve sputum eosinophil count (≥ 3%/year). Eosinophil efferocytosis by monocyte-derived macrophages was studied in 17 COPD subjects and 8 normal controls. RESULTS: There were no differences in baseline lung function, health status or exacerbation frequency between the groups: A-low red hue, high sputum eosinophils (n=10), B-high red hue, high sputum eosinophils (n=16), C-low red hue, low sputum eosinophils (n=19) and D- high red hue, low sputum eosinophils (n=58). Positive bacterial culture was lower in groups A (10%) and B (6%) compared to C (44%) and D (21%) (p=0.01). The fall in FEV1 from stable to exacerbation was greatest in group A (ΔFEV1 [95 % CI] -0.41 L [-0.65 to -0.17]) versus group B (-0.16 L [-0.32 to -0.011]), C (-0.11 L [-0.23 to -0.002]) and D (-0.16 L [-0.22 to -0.10]; p=0.02). Macrophage efferocytosis of eosinophils was impaired in COPD versus controls (86 [75 to 92]% versus 93 [88 to 96]%; p=0.028); was most marked in group A (71 [70 to 84]%; p=0.0295) and was inversely correlated with exacerbation frequency (r=-0.63; p=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Macrophage efferocytosis of eosinophils is impaired in COPD and is related to the severity and frequency of COPD exacerbations.