BMI and breast cancer risk around age at menopause.

BACKGROUND: A high body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) is associated with decreased risk of breast cancer before menopause, but increased risk after menopause. Exactly when this reversal occurs in relation to menopause is unclear. Locating that change point could provide insight into the role of adiposity in breast cancer etiology. METHODS: We examined the association between BMI and breast cancer risk in the Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaborative Group, from age 45 up to breast cancer diagnosis, loss to follow-up, death, or age 55, whichever came first. Analyses included 609,880 women in 16 prospective studies, including 9956 who developed breast cancer before age 55. We fitted three BMI hazard ratio (HR) models over age-time: constant, linear, or nonlinear (via splines), applying piecewise exponential additive mixed models, with age as the primary time scale. We divided person-time into four strata: premenopause; postmenopause due to natural menopause; postmenopause because of interventional loss of ovarian function (bilateral oophorectomy (BO) or chemotherapy); postmenopause due to hysterectomy without BO. Sensitivity analyses included stratifying by BMI in young adulthood, or excluding women using menopausal hormone therapy. RESULTS: The constant BMI HR model provided the best fit for all four menopausal status groups. Under this model, the estimated association between a five-unit increment in BMI and breast cancer risk was HR=0.87 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.89) before menopause, HR=1.00 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.04) after natural menopause, HR=0.99 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.05) after interventional loss of ovarian function, and HR=0.88 (95% CI: 0.76, 1.02) after hysterectomy without BO. CONCLUSION: The BMI breast cancer HRs remained less than or near one during the 45-55 year age range indicating that the transition to a positive association between BMI and risk occurs after age 55.

International Pooled Analysis of Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Premenopausal Breast Cancer in Women From 19 Cohorts.

PURPOSE: There is strong evidence that leisure-time physical activity is protective against postmenopausal breast cancer risk but the association with premenopausal breast cancer is less clear. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of physical activity with the risk of developing premenopausal breast cancer. METHODS: We pooled individual-level data on self-reported leisure-time physical activity across 19 cohort studies comprising 547,601 premenopausal women, with 10,231 incident cases of breast cancer. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for associations of leisure-time physical activity with breast cancer incidence. HRs for high versus low levels of activity were based on a comparison of risk at the 90th versus 10th percentiles of activity. We assessed the linearity of the relationship and examined subtype-specific associations and effect modification across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including adiposity. RESULTS: Over a median 11.5 years of follow-up (IQR, 8.0-16.1 years), high versus low levels of leisure-time physical activity were associated with a 6% (HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89 to 0.99]) and a 10% (HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.85 to 0.95]) reduction in breast cancer risk, before and after adjustment for BMI, respectively. Tests of nonlinearity suggested an approximately linear relationship (Pnonlinearity = .94). The inverse association was particularly strong for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-enriched breast cancer (HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.39 to 0.84]; Phet = .07). Associations did not vary significantly across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including subgroups of adiposity. CONCLUSION: This large, pooled analysis of cohort studies adds to evidence that engagement in higher levels of leisure-time physical activity may lead to reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk.

Mediating Role of Lifestyle Behaviors in the Association between Education and Cancer: Results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have shown that socioeconomic position (SEP) is associated with the incidence of malignant tumors at different sites. This study aims to estimate the association between educational level (as proxy for SEP) and cancer incidence and to understand whether the observed associations might be partially explained by lifestyle behaviors. METHODS: The analyses were performed on data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, globally and by sex. We used Cox proportional hazards models together with mediation analysis to disentangle the total effect (TE) of educational level [measured through the Relative Index of Inequality (RII)] on cancer incidence into pure direct (PDE) and total indirect (TIE) effect, unexplained and explained by mediators, respectively. PDE and TIE were then combined to compute the proportions mediated (PM). RESULTS: After an average of 14 years of follow-up, 52,422 malignant tumors were ascertained. Low educated participants showed higher risk of developing stomach, lung, kidney (in women), and bladder (in men) cancers, and, conversely, lower risk of melanoma and breast cancer (in post-menopausal women), when compared with more educated participants. Mediation analyses showed that portions of the TE of RII on cancer could be explained by site-specific related lifestyle behaviors for stomach, lung, and breast (in women). CONCLUSIONS: Cancer incidence in Europe is determined at least in part by a socioeconomically stratified distribution of risk factors. IMPACT: These observational findings support policies to reduce cancer occurrence by altering mediators, such as lifestyle behaviors, particularly focusing on underprivileged strata of the population.

Methylation-based markers of aging and lifestyle-related factors and risk of breast cancer: a pooled analysis of four prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation in blood may reflect adverse exposures accumulated over the lifetime and could therefore provide potential improvements in the prediction of cancer risk. A substantial body of research has shown associations between epigenetic aging and risk of disease, including cancer. Here we aimed to study epigenetic measures of aging and lifestyle-related factors in association with risk of breast cancer. METHODS: Using data from four prospective case-control studies nested in three cohorts of European ancestry participants, including a total of 1,655 breast cancer cases, we calculated three methylation-based measures of lifestyle factors (body mass index [BMI], tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption) and seven measures of epigenetic aging (Horvath-based, Hannum-based, PhenoAge and GrimAge). All measures were regression-adjusted for their respective risk factors and expressed per standard deviation (SD). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using conditional or unconditional logistic regression and pooled using fixed-effects meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses were conducted by age at blood draw, time from blood sample to diagnosis, oestrogen receptor-positivity status and tumour stage. RESULTS: None of the measures of epigenetic aging were associated with risk of breast cancer in the pooled analysis: Horvath 'age acceleration' (AA): OR per SD = 1.02, 95%CI: 0.95-1.10; AA-Hannum: OR = 1.03, 95%CI:0.95-1.12; PhenoAge: OR = 1.01, 95%CI: 0.94-1.09 and GrimAge: OR = 1.03, 95%CI: 0.94-1.12, in models adjusting for white blood cell proportions, body mass index, smoking and alcohol consumption. The BMI-adjusted predictor of BMI was associated with breast cancer risk, OR per SD = 1.09, 95%CI: 1.01-1.17. The results for the alcohol and smoking methylation-based predictors were consistent with a null association. Risk did not appear to substantially vary by age at blood draw, time to diagnosis or tumour characteristics. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that methylation-based measures of aging, smoking or alcohol consumption were associated with risk of breast cancer. A methylation-based marker of BMI was associated with risk and may provide insights into the underlying associations between BMI and breast cancer.

Use of Biological Drugs for Psoriasis: A Drug-Utilization Study Using Tuscan Administrative Databanks.

Our study aims at providing evidence on patterns of use of biologic drugs for psoriasis in Tuscany, Italy. We conducted a drug-utilization study based on administrative databanks of Tuscany (EUPAS45365) from 2011 to 2019. We selected new users of etanercept, infliximab, adalimumab, ustekinumab, or secukinumab between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2016. We considered subjects with psoriasis and followed subjects until the end of the study period (three years after the first dispensation of biologic drug for psoriasis) or the patient's death, whichever came first. We censored subjects for pregnancy or neoplasia. For each subject, we defined the state as the weekly coverage of one of the biologic drugs of interest. We then defined the switch as the change from a state to another one. A total of 7062 subjects with a first dispensation of a PSObio drug in the inclusion period was identified, and 1839 (52.9% female, 51.6 mean age) patients were included in the analysis. Among new users of adalimumab (N = 770, 41.9%), one third showed a continuous behaviour whereas the others moved to etanercept and ustekinumab. New users of etanercept (N = 758, 41.2%), had the highest proportion of switchers, with adalimumab most often being the second choice. New users of infliximab (N = 159, 8.6%) experienced the highest proportion of treatment discontinuation. The present study suggests that the majority of patients treated with PSObio drugs do not switch from one active ingredient to another. However, patients who started biological therapy with etanercept had the highest frequency of switching to other PSObio drugs, whereas those who started with secukinumab or ustekinumab had the lowest.

Serum oncostatin M predicts mucosal healing in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases treated with anti-TNF, but not vedolizumab.

BACKGROUND: Oncostatin M was recently highlighted as a promising biomarker for therapeutic effectiveness in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), with particular regard for infliximab. The primary aim was to evaluate the ability of serum oncostatin M to predict endoscopic response to different drugs in IBD. METHODS: We selected two different cohorts of patients with IBD, treated with anti-TNF (infliximab and adalimumab) or with vedolizumab. Therapeutic response was evaluated at week 54 in terms of mucosal healing. Serum oncostatin M and C-reactive protein were measured at baseline; fecal calprotectin was measured at baseline and after 14 weeks of treatment. We evaluated the association of these biomarkers with mucosal healing at week 54. RESULTS: Among 66 patients treated with anti-TNFs and 68 treated with vedolizumab, 35 and 31 attained mucosal healing, respectively. Mucosal healing at 54 weeks was significantly associated with low oncostatin M levels at baseline in the anti-TNF cohort; the diagnostic accuracy of oncostatin M at baseline in predicting mucosal healing was 0.91 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.99) in the anti-TNF cohort and 0.56 (95% CI 0.43 to 0.70, P < 0.001) in the vedolizumab cohort. Mucosal healing was also associated with low fecal calprotectin levels at week 14 in both cohorts. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that serum oncostatin M is a drug-specific biomarker, since it could be used to predict therapeutic effectiveness to anti-TNFs but not to vedolizumab. Moreover, these results emphasize the utility of serum oncostatin M measurement in patients treated with anti-TNF.

Can the computed tomography texture analysis of colorectal liver metastases predict the response to first-line cytotoxic chemotherapy?

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence in radiology has the potential to assist with the diagnosis, prognostication and therapeutic response prediction of various cancers. A few studies have reported that texture analysis can be helpful in predicting the response to chemotherapy for colorectal liver metastases, however, the results have varied. Necrotic metastases were not clearly excluded in these studies and in most studies the full range of texture analysis features were not evaluated. This study was designed to determine if the computed tomography (CT) texture analysis results of non-necrotic colorectal liver metastases differ from previous reports. A larger range of texture features were also evaluated to identify potential new biomarkers. AIM: To identify potential new imaging biomarkers with CT texture analysis which can predict the response to first-line cytotoxic chemotherapy in non-necrotic colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs). METHODS: Patients who presented with CRLMs from 2012 to 2020 were retrospectively selected on the institutional radiology information system of our private radiology practice. The inclusion criteria were non-necrotic CRLMs with a minimum size of 10 mm (diagnosed on archived 1.25 mm portal venous phase CT scans) which were treated with standard first-line cytotoxic chemotherapy (FOLFOX, FOLFIRI, FOLFOXIRI, CAPE-OX, CAPE-IRI or capecitabine). The final study cohort consisted of 29 patients. The treatment response of the CRLMs was classified according to the RECIST 1.1 criteria. By means of CT texture analysis, various first and second order texture features were extracted from a single non-necrotic target CRLM in each responding and non-responding patient. Associations between features and response to chemotherapy were assessed by logistic regression models. The prognostic accuracy of selected features was evaluated by using the area under the curve. RESULTS: There were 15 responders (partial response) and 14 non-responders (7 stable and 7 with progressive disease). The responders presented with a higher number of CRLMs (P = 0.05). In univariable analysis, eight texture features of the responding CRLMs were associated with treatment response, but due to strong correlations among some of the features, only two features, namely minimum histogram gradient intensity and long run low grey level emphasis, were included in the multiple analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the multiple model was 0.80 (95%CI: 0.64 to 0.96), with a sensitivity of 0.73 (95%CI: 0.48 to 0.89) and a specificity of 0.79 (95%CI: 0.52 to 0.92). CONCLUSION: Eight first and second order texture features, but particularly minimum histogram gradient intensity and long run low grey level emphasis are significantly correlated with treatment response in non-necrotic CRLMs.

Myeloid neoplasms and autoimmune diseases: markers of association.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prognostic significance of concomitant autoimmune diseases (ADs) in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). METHODS: 435 subjects with a diagnosis of MPNs were included in this observational single institution longitudinal study. Of them, 34 patients presented an overt AD at diagnosis of MPN. Clinical presenting features, progression-free and overall survival were compared between MPN subgroups in relation to co-existence of AD at diagnosis of MPN. RESULTS: Compared to cases without ADs, the subjects with ADs were significantly younger, had lower haemoglobin and haematocrit levels and more frequently presented with splenomegaly. The clinical and biological features associated to progression-free and overall survival were: age, presence of splenomegaly, histotype (MF vs. PV vs. ET), anaemia, high platelet count and presence of any AD at diagnosis of MPN. The age-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of progression for the presence of AD at diagnosis of MPN was 2.76. Overall survival was not significantly associated to AD at diagnosis, but the HR of progression for the presence of AD at diagnosis of MPN was 2.18. CONCLUSIONS: A possible common genetic predisposition, the inflammatory bone marrow microenvironment and the activation of theJAK/STAT pathway could be considered as responsible for the observed association between MPNs and ADs.

Trajectories of Adherence to Biologic Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs in Tuscan Administrative Databases: The Pathfinder Study.

Scanty information on clustering longitudinal real-world data is available in the medical literature about the adherence implementation phase in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). To identify and characterize trajectories by analyzing the implementation phase of adherence to biologic Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs (DMARDs), we conducted a retrospective cohort drug-utilization study using Tuscan administrative databases. RA patients were identified by a validated algorithm, including the first biologic DMARD supply from 2010 to 2015, RA specialist visit in the year before or after the first supply date and RA diagnosis in the five years before or in the year after the first supply date. We observed users for three years or until death, neoplasia, or pregnancy. We evaluated adherence quarterly through the Medication Possession Ratio. Firstly, we identified adherence trajectories and described the baseline characteristics; then, we focused on the trajectory most populated to distinguish the related sub-trajectories. We identified 952 first ever-biologic DMARD users in RA (712 females, mean age 52.7 years old, standard deviation 18.8). The biologic DMARD mostly supplied was etanercept (387 users) followed by adalimumab (233). Among 935 users with at least 3 adherence values, we identified 49 fully-adherent users, 829 continuous users, and 57 early-discontinuing users. Significant differences were observed among the index drugs. After focusing on the continuous users, three sub-trajectories were identified: continuous-steady users (556), continuous-alternate users (207), and continuous-declining users (66). No relevant differences emerged at the baseline. The majority of first ever-biologic DMARD users showed a continuous adherence behavior in RA. The role of adherence potential predictors and the association with effectiveness and safety outcomes should be explored by further studies.

Association between telomere length and mitochondrial copy number and cancer risk in humans: A meta-analysis on more than 300,000 individuals.

In the last decades the association of leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and mitochondrial copy number (mtDNAcn) with cancer risk has been the focus of many reports, however the relation is not yet completely understood. A meta-analysis of 112 studies including 64,184 cancer cases and 278,641 controls that analysed LTL and mtDNAcn in relation to cancer risk has been conducted to further our understanding of the topic. Stratified analyses for tumor type were also performed. Overall, no association was observed for all cancer combined neither for LTL nor mtDNAcn. Significant associations were detected for these biomarkers and specific cancer type; however, a large degree of heterogeneity was present, even within the same tumor type. Alternatives approaches based on polymorphic variants, such as polygenic risk scores and mendelian randomization, could be adopted to unravel the causal correlation of telomere length and mitochondrial copy number with cancer risk.

Use of antiseizure medications and safety of branded versus generic formulations: A comparative study on Tuscan administrative databases.

PURPOSE: To assess patterns of use of antiseizure medications (ASMs) and to compare the safety of generic versus branded formulations in terms of admission to hospital or to emergency department (ED). METHODS: We conducted a drug utilization study with a propensity score-matched design using the administrative databases of the Italian Tuscany region. New users of ASMs during 2015 with no history of neoplasia were considered and their first prescription was classified as: available only as branded (only-B-ASM); branded with generic available (B-ASM); and generic (G-ASM). Patients with G-ASM first prescription were matched with four patients with B-ASM prescription. Participants were followed up for one year or until the date of death or diagnosis of neoplasia. Cox regression models were fitted to estimate the risk of admission to hospital or ED. RESULTS: We identified 36,601 ASM new-users, including 2094 (6.4%) with only-B-ASM as first prescription, 24,588 (74.9%) with B-ASM, and 5788 (17.6%) with G-ASM. We found no differences in the risk of admission to hospital or ED (Hazard Ratio (HR), 0.92; 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 0.85-1.02) among users of generic ASMs compared to those using branded ASMs. CONCLUSIONS: In our study population, generic ASMs were used less than branded ones. The similarity in the safety of branded and generic formulations suggests that generic ASMs could be the preferred formulation in current clinical practice resulting in a substantial decrease in the cost of treatment.

Investigation of circulating metabolites associated with breast cancer risk by untargeted metabolomics: a case-control study nested within the French E3N cohort.

BACKGROUND: Perturbations in circulating metabolites prior to a breast cancer diagnosis are not well characterised. We aimed to gain more detailed knowledge to help understand and prevent the disease. METHODS: Baseline plasma samples from 791 breast cancer cases and 791 matched controls from the E3N (EPIC-France) cohort were profiled by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-based untargeted metabolomics. Partial least-squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) models were built from NMR profiles to predict disease outcome, and odds ratios and false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted CIs were calculated for 43 identified metabolites by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Breast cancer onset was predicted in the premenopausal subgroup with modest accuracy (AUC 0.61, 95% CI: 0.49-0.73), and 10 metabolites associated with risk, particularly histidine (OR = 1.70 per SD increase, FDR-adjusted CI 1.19-2.41), N-acetyl glycoproteins (OR = 1.53, FDR-adjusted CI 1.18-1.97), glycerol (OR = 1.55, FDR-adjusted CI 1.11-2.18) and ethanol (OR = 1.44, FDR-adjusted CI 1.05-1.97). No predictive capacity or significant metabolites were found overall or for postmenopausal women. CONCLUSIONS: Perturbed metabolism compared to controls was observed in premenopausal but not postmenopausal cases. Histidine and NAC have known involvement in inflammatory pathways, and the robust association of ethanol with risk suggests the involvement of alcohol intake.

Thymoma-associated myasthenia gravis: Clinical features and predictive value of antiacetylcholine receptor antibodies in the risk of recurrence of thymoma.

BACKGROUND: Thymoma-associated myasthenia gravis (TAMG) is one of the subtypes of myasthenia gravis with autoantibodies against the acetylcholine receptor (AChR-Ab). We analyzed the clinical features of our cohort of TAMG patients and the changes in AChR-Ab titer before and after thymectomy in order to identify factors predicting thymoma relapses. METHODS: We retrospectively assessed: age of MG onset, MG clinical status according to MGFA (Myasthenia Gravis Foundation of America), epoch of thymectomy, post-thymectomy status, oncological features and surgical approach. AChR-Ab dosages were measured both before and after thymectomy. Linear regression models were applied to identify clinical determinants of AChR-Ab titers and the Cox regression model was fitted to estimate the factors associated with the risk of thymoma recurrence. RESULTS: The study sample included 239 MG patients, 27 of whom experienced one or more recurrences (median follow-up time: 4.8 years). The AChR-Ab titers decreased after first thymectomy (P < 0.001); the decrease was more pronounced in female patients (P = 0.05), in patients diagnosed with MG at an older age (P = 0.003), and in those who had lower MG stage before surgery (P = 0.02) or higher Masaoka-Koga stage (P = 0.005). The risk of relapse was closely linked with the age of the patient, the Masaoka-Koga stage and the surgical approach. CONCLUSIONS: Presurgery levels of AChR-Ab or their change after surgery were not associated with thymoma recurrence. The reduction of AChR-Ab titers after thymectomy confirms an immunological role of thymoma in the pathogenesis of MG. KEY POINTS: Significant findings of the study: Young MG patients with an advanced Masaoka staging score of the primary tumor who underwent thymectomy with approaches different from sternotomy and VATS should be monitored for high risk of recurrence. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: No other study has ever investigated the changes in AChR-Ab titers before and after thymectomy in a large cohort of TAMG patients. The reduction of AChR-Ab titers after thymectomy suggests an immunological role of thymoma in the pathogenesis of MG.

Novel mammogram-based measures improve breast cancer risk prediction beyond an established mammographic density measure.

Mammograms contain information that predicts breast cancer risk. We developed two novel mammogram-based breast cancer risk measures based on image brightness (Cirrocumulus) and texture (Cirrus). Their risk prediction when fitted together, and with an established measure of conventional mammographic density (Cumulus), is not known. We used three studies consisting of: 168 interval cases and 498 matched controls; 422 screen-detected cases and 1197 matched controls; and 354 younger-diagnosis cases and 944 controls frequency-matched for age at mammogram. We conducted conditional and unconditional logistic regression analyses of individually- and frequency-matched studies, respectively. We estimated measure-specific risk gradients as the change in odds per standard deviation of controls after adjusting for age and body mass index (OPERA) and calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). For interval, screen-detected and younger-diagnosis cancer risks, the best fitting models (OPERAs [95% confidence intervals]) involved: Cumulus (1.81 [1.41-2.31]) and Cirrus (1.72 [1.38-2.14]); Cirrus (1.49 [1.32-1.67]) and Cirrocumulus (1.16 [1.03 to 1.31]); and Cirrus (1.70 [1.48 to 1.94]) and Cirrocumulus (1.46 [1.27-1.68]), respectively. The AUCs were: 0.73 [0.68-0.77], 0.63 [0.60-0.66], and 0.72 [0.69-0.75], respectively. Combined, our new mammogram-based measures have twice the risk gradient for screen-detected and younger-diagnosis breast cancer (P ≤ 10-12 ), have at least the same discriminatory power as the current polygenic risk score, and are more correlated with causal factors than conventional mammographic density. Discovering more information about breast cancer risk from mammograms could help enable risk-based personalised breast screening.

The impact of lifecourse socio-economic position and individual social mobility on breast cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Women with an advantaged socioeconomic position (SEP) have a higher risk of developing breast cancer (BC). The reasons for this association do not seem to be limited to reproductive factors and remain to be understood. We aimed to investigate the impact of lifecourse SEP from childhood and social mobility on the risk of BC considering a broad set of potential mediators. METHODS: We used a discovery-replication strategy in two European prospective cohorts, E3N (N = 83,436) and EPIC-Italy (N = 20,530). In E3N, 7877 women were diagnosed with BC during a median 24.4 years of follow-up, while in EPIC-Italy, 893 BC cases were diagnosed within 15.1 years. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models on imputed data. RESULTS: In E3N, women with higher education had a higher risk of BC (HR [95%CI] = 1.21 [1.12, 1.30]). This association was attenuated by adjusting for reproductive factors, in particular age at first childbirth (HR[95%CI] = 1.13 [1.04, 1.22]). Health behaviours, anthropometric variables, and BC screening had a weaker effect on the association. Women who remained in a stable advantaged SEP had a higher risk of BC (HR [95%CI] = 1.24 [1.07; 1.43]) attenuated after adjustment for potential mediators (HR [95%CI] = 1.13 [0.98; 1.31]). These results were replicated in EPIC-Italy. CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm the important role of reproductive factors in the social gradient in BC risk, which does not appear to be fully explained by the large set of potential mediators, including cancer screening, suggesting that further research is needed to identify additional mechanisms.

Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors Play an Antiviral Action in Patients Affected by Chronic Myeloid Leukemia: A Possible Model Supporting Their Use in the Fight Against SARS-CoV-2.

SARS-CoV-2 is the viral agent responsible for the pandemic that in the first months of 2020 caused about 400,000 deaths. Among compounds proposed to fight the SARS-CoV-2-related disease (COVID-19), tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), already effective in Philadelphia-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Ph+ ALL) and chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), have been proposed on the basis of their antiviral action already demonstrated against SARS-CoV-1. Very few cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Ph+ ALL and in CML Italian cohorts; authors suggested that this low rate of infections might depend on the use of TKIs, but the biological causes of this phenomenon remain unknown. In this study, the CML model was used to test if TKIs would sustain or not the viral replication and if they could damage patient immunity. Firstly, the infection and replication rate of torquetenovirus (TTV), whose load is inversely proportional to the host immunological control, have been measured in CML patients receiving nilotinib. A very low percentage of subjects were infected at baseline, and TTV did not replicate or at least showed a low replication rate during the follow-up, with a mean load comparable to the measured one in healthy subjects. Then, after gene expression profiling experiments, we found that several "antiviral" genes, such as CD28 and IFN gamma, were upregulated, while genes with "proviral" action, such as ARG-1, CEACAM1, and FUT4, were less expressed during treatment with imatinib, thus demonstrating that TKIs are not detrimental from the immunological point of view. To sum up, our data could offer some biological explanations to the low COVID-19 occurrence in Ph+ ALL and CML patients and sustain the use of TKIs in COVID-19, as already proposed by several international ongoing studies.

Causal mediation analysis in presence of multiple mediators uncausally related.

Mediation analysis aims at disentangling the effects of a treatment on an outcome through alternative causal mechanisms and has become a popular practice in biomedical and social science applications. The causal framework based on counterfactuals is currently the standard approach to mediation, with important methodological advances introduced in the literature in the last decade, especially for simple mediation, that is with one mediator at the time. Among a variety of alternative approaches, Imai et al. showed theoretical results and developed an R package to deal with simple mediation as well as with multiple mediation involving multiple mediators conditionally independent given the treatment and baseline covariates. This approach does not allow to consider the often encountered situation in which an unobserved common cause induces a spurious correlation between the mediators. In this context, which we refer to as mediation with uncausally related mediators, we show that, under appropriate hypothesis, the natural direct and joint indirect effects are non-parametrically identifiable. Moreover, we adopt the quasi-Bayesian algorithm developed by Imai et al. and propose a procedure based on the simulation of counterfactual distributions to estimate not only the direct and joint indirect effects but also the indirect effects through individual mediators. We study the properties of the proposed estimators through simulations. As an illustration, we apply our method on a real data set from a large cohort to assess the effect of hormone replacement treatment on breast cancer risk through three mediators, namely dense mammographic area, nondense area and body mass index.

Stochastic Epigenetic Mutations Are Associated with Risk of Breast Cancer, Lung Cancer, and Mature B-cell Neoplasms.

BACKGROUND: Age-related epigenetic dysregulations are associated with several diseases, including cancer. The number of stochastic epigenetic mutations (SEM) has been suggested as a biomarker of life-course accumulation of exposure-related DNA damage; however, the predictive role of SEMs in cancer has seldom been investigated. METHODS: A SEM, at a given CpG site, was defined as an extreme outlier of DNA methylation value distribution across individuals. We investigated the association of the total number of SEMs with the risk of eight cancers in 4,497 case-control pairs nested in three prospective cohorts. Furthermore, we investigated whether SEMs were randomly distributed across the genome or enriched in functional genomic regions. RESULTS: In the three-study meta-analysis, the estimated ORs per one-unit increase in log(SEM) from logistic regression models adjusted for age and cancer risk factors were 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.11-1.41 for breast cancer, and 1.23; 95% CI, 1.07-1.42 for lung cancer. In the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, the OR for mature B-cell neoplasm was 1.46; 95% CI, 1.25-1.71. Enrichment analyses indicated that SEMs frequently occur in silenced genomic regions and in transcription factor binding sites regulated by EZH2 and SUZ12 (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.0005, respectively): two components of the polycomb repressive complex 2 (PCR2). Finally, we showed that PCR2-specific SEMs are generally more stable over time compared with SEMs occurring in the whole genome. CONCLUSIONS: The number of SEMs is associated with a higher risk of different cancers in prediagnostic blood samples. IMPACT: We identified a candidate biomarker for cancer early detection, and we described a carcinogenesis mechanism involving PCR2 complex proteins worthy of further investigations.

Serum oncostatin M at baseline predicts mucosal healing in Crohn's disease patients treated with infliximab.

BACKGROUND: Oncostatin M is upregulated in Crohn's disease inflamed intestinal mucosa, and has been suggested as a promising biomarker to predict responsiveness to anti-TNF therapy in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases. AIM: To evaluate the suitability of serum oncostatin M as a predictive marker of response to infliximab in Crohn's disease. METHODS: We included patients treated with infliximab monotherapy. All patients underwent colonoscopy at week 54 to evaluate mucosal healing. Serum oncostatin M and faecal calprotectin were measured at baseline and after 14 weeks of treatment. Mann-Whitney test was used to evaluate correlation of oncostatin M and faecal calprotectin at baseline and week 14 with mucosal healing at week 54. Their accuracy in predicting mucosal healing was assessed by area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: In a cohort of 45 included patients, 27 displayed mucosal healing. At both baseline and week 14, oncostatin M levels were significantly lower in patients with mucosal healing than in patients not achieving this endpoint (P < 0.001). Faecal calprotectin levels at week 14 were lower also in responders than nonresponders (P < 0.001). Oncostatin M values at baseline and week 14 were significantly associated (Spearman correlation = 0.92, P < 0.001). The diagnostic accuracy of oncostatin M at baseline in predicting mucosal healing (AUC = 0.91) was greater than faecal calprotectin (AUC = 0.51, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that oncostatin M can predict the outcome of infliximab treatment. Compared with faecal calprotectin, the predictive capability of oncostatin M was appreciable at baseline, thus indicating oncostatin M as a promising biomarker for driving therapeutic choices in Crohn's disease.

Adult weight change and premenopausal breast cancer risk: A prospective pooled analysis of data from 628,463 women.

Early-adulthood body size is strongly inversely associated with risk of premenopausal breast cancer. It is unclear whether subsequent changes in weight affect risk. We pooled individual-level data from 17 prospective studies to investigate the association of weight change with premenopausal breast cancer risk, considering strata of initial weight, timing of weight change, other breast cancer risk factors and breast cancer subtype. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained using Cox regression. Among 628,463 women, 10,886 were diagnosed with breast cancer before menopause. Models adjusted for initial weight at ages 18-24 years and other breast cancer risk factors showed that weight gain from ages 18-24 to 35-44 or to 45-54 years was inversely associated with breast cancer overall (e.g., HR per 5 kg to ages 45-54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95-0.98) and with oestrogen-receptor(ER)-positive breast cancer (HR per 5 kg to ages 45-54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94-0.98). Weight gain from ages 25-34 was inversely associated with ER-positive breast cancer only and weight gain from ages 35-44 was not associated with risk. None of these weight gains were associated with ER-negative breast cancer. Weight loss was not consistently associated with overall or ER-specific risk after adjusting for initial weight. Weight increase from early-adulthood to ages 45-54 years is associated with a reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk independently of early-adulthood weight. Biological explanations are needed to account for these two separate factors.